Sunday, December 08, 2013

Morning News: New Bracket, Colorado Stuns Kansas, Missouri Topples UCLA, Wisconsin Over Marquette, And Much More

In case you were living under a rock yesterday, here's the Colorado/Kansas finish.

New Bracket Projection Come for the bracket projection, stay for the BCS rant. It's Sunday morning, so that means a new bracket projection. Kansas slides to the top as the new #1 overall (remember, this is a projection of March, and not a ranking of how teams have played so far or what their resumes are so far). The four teams that are projected as 1 seeds still have not changed all season, though. Three new teams moved into the bracket (Missouri, LSU and Stephen F Austin) while three teams dropped out (BYU, Maryland, Northwestern State).

Colorado Stuns Kansas At The Buzzer This Colorado/Kansas game was fantastic. I know most people were watching football yesterday, but I was doing my best from my twitter account to implore folks to switch over to this game. The difference in this game in the end was a crazy, running 30-footer at the buzzer by Askia Booker. The real difference in the game, though, was rebounding. Colorado somehow managed to win the rebounding battle against a bigger, longer and more athletic Kansas team. They just outworked the Jayhawks. Throw in only 8 turnovers for the Buffaloes, and they managed to make up for the shortage of talent (particularly with Wesley Gordon out injured).

This was the win that Colorado needed for their at-large resume. They now have a big scalp in non-conference play, and even if they fall to Oklahoma State in a couple weeks they should enter Pac-12 play inside the Field of 68. An 11-7 Pac-12 record should get them in. A 10-8 record might require a win or two in the Pac-12 tournament.

The Jayhawks have been a bit inconsistent early this season, which shouldn't be surprising for a team so young. Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid have both taken turns looking elite and looking a bit off. In this particular game, it was Wiggins who looked great and Embiid who was a bit shaky. As the season goes along, they should get more consistent and this team should look a lot better. In my opinion, Kansas has the highest March ceiling of any team in the country. They're just not there in early December.

Missouri Topples UCLA In an interesting battle between two undefeated teams, the story was just how little help Jordan Adams got from his teammates. Buried on the Pac-12 Network and without a big victory yet, Jordan Adams is unknown to most casual basketball fans, but he's been playing like an All-American early on this season (not a shocker considering how good he was last season). He had 22 points an 10 rebounds, and was probably the best player for either team. But he got no help from his teammates at all. The Wear Twins, in particular, were invisible (a combined 4 points and 5 rebounds in 43 minutes). Missouri, on the other hand, had three players break 20 points and a fourth collect a double-double. The catalyst for Missouri, as usual, was Jordan Clarkson. The transfer from Tulsa has given the Tigers a surprisingly explosive offensive playmaker.

With wins over West Virginia and UCLA, the question is whether Missouri will build on this hot start or fall back to Earth. Illinois and NC State are their remaining serious tests prior to SEC play. If they can get past those games, they have a very soft start to their SEC schedule before hitting the meat of conference play in February. If this Missouri team really is as good as they looked yesterday, they could have an awfully good won/loss record on February 1st. UCLA, meanwhile, has been blowing out the teams they're supposed to blow out but have yet to beat a quality opponent. Unless they beat Duke at Madison Square Garden in a couple of weeks, they're going to enter Pac-12 play looking up at the Field of 68.

Wisconsin Takes Care Of Business Against Marquette The Badgers are a home win against Wisconsin-Milwaukee away from sweeping the state of Wisconsin. They weren't at their best here (and their poor front court depth was tested with serious foul trouble), but they don't have to be at their best to beat Marquette this season. Their defense isn't as good as last season, but it's still very strong, and they have a huge array of offensive options. With a soft schedule coming up, don't be shocked if Wisconsin stays undefeated until late-January.

Marquette falls to 0-4 against Pomeroy Top 50 teams. I still think they're a Tournament team, but even a win over New Mexico (their final quality non-conference opponent) won't be sufficient to have a Tournament quality resume entering Big East play. They're probably going to need at least a 10-8 Big East record to go Dancing.

Green Bay Knocks Off Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers Tony Bennett played his collegiate career at Green Bay for his father, but his alma mater didn't take it easy on him. Green Bay has been feisty, nearly taking out Wisconsin and Harvard before this big win here. They hit 50% of their threes, but what really won this game was offensive efficiency. Against a superb Virginia defense, Green Bay finished with 18 assists to only 8 turnovers. The 1.19 PPP allowed by Virginia weren't just the most they've allowed this season, but more than all but one game last season (North Carolina). If Green Bay gets into the NCAA Tournament, they'll be a very scary 12/13 seed. Virginia, meanwhile, is already starting to replay last season's resume-much-worse-than-team-quality season. If they're not careful, they might find themselves on the bubble all over again.

Illinois State Storms The Court After Win Over Dayton This result probably won't even make Sportscenter, but it's a pretty big upset victory over a ranked team for an Illinois State squad that came in 2-4 against the Pomeroy Top 300. To be fair to Illinois State, they had been showing a little bit of life the past couple of weeks, and so they were only 6.5 point underdogs here. But this still represents a bad loss for Dayton's resume, to balance out somewhat the wins over Gonzaga and California. The good news for them is that in the Atlantic Ten there will be a bunch of chances for quality wins, and so one bad loss is not going to be as devastating as it would be if they were in a smaller league.

UMass Beats BYU Chaz Williams might be the best point guard below the national radar. He dominated BYU here, finishing with 32 points, 15 assists and only 1 turnover. BYU's defense is poor, but a team getting 29 assists on 35 made shots is really impressive regardless. UMass is now 8-0 with wins over New Mexico, Clemson, BYU and LSU. They're probably due for a little bit of a reality check at some point, but they're certainly playing like an NCAA Tournament team and have the resume to back it up so far. The same can't be said for a BYU team that has blown the opportunities it has had to collect quality non-conference wins. Road games against Utah and Oregon are their final chances for RPI Top 100 wins prior to WCC play.

Arkansas 74, Clemson 68 Clemson almost pulled off a big comeback victory here. Trailing by 15 points with under 6 minutes to go, they pulled within 5 with more than 2:30 left in the game. But two straight empty possessions (including one stopped by a massive block by Alandise Harris) did them in. Mike Anderson's team has a quietly solid resume, with victories over Minnesota, Clemson and SMU, without any bad losses. Assuming they avoid any losses to their remaining non-conference cupcakes. they should be able to play well enough in SEC play to at least get on the bubble. Clemson, on the other hand, will now finish non-conference play without a quality win. Even in the tough ACC, they'll have a hard time getting to the NCAA Tournament without 10 wins.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

There are four questions you should ask yourself when ranking Kansas as the top overall seed:
1) how good is Kansas right now?
2) how good will Kansas eventually be?
3) how long will it take Kansas to reach their potential.
4) what damage will Kansas' resume take between now and the time they near their ceiling for the season?

1) Kansas is pretty good right now, but terribly inconsistent and by no means great. Their last four games are a 9 point win vs Wake Forest, a 4 point loss vs Villanova, a 4 point win vs UTEP, and a 3 point loss to Colorado. They have a good win vs Duke, but Duke is another one of those teams that is hard to judge on any given night. Did Kansas play a good Duke team on that particular night in early November? Hard to tell. At this point I'd have them outside the top 10.

2) This is purely subjective, but I think Kansas will be anywhere from the first to eighth-best team by regular-season's end. I think that's realistic and fair. This is not to say they will have a great resume - rather, their current potential may eventually blossom to a degree that they'd be favored against any team on a neutral court in early March.

3) Kansas is probably still pretty far away from resembling an elite team. They've treaded water all season, and it'd be a stretch to say they're a much better team now than they were a month ago. Moreover, their problem is twofold. They are dominated by young players that are still acclimating themselves to a new system, and the coaching staff doesn't seem confident that they've found the best rotations for their players. I can imagine its pretty overwhelming for the Jayhawks' younger players. Kansas is realistically at least two months away from blossoming, both on an individual player basis and as a team, to an extent that they can consistently compete on an elite level.

4) Kansas will play Florida, New Mexico, Georgetown, and San Diego State within the next month. By February 7 (two months from yesterday), they will have played nine conference games. Of those, two will be against Iowa State, two will be against Baylor, and one against Oklahoma State. They have an insanely front loaded schedule, which does no favors for a team looking to find itself. My guess is Kansas will have at least six losses by February 7, and won't have much opportunity to pick up quality wins down the stretch, when they'll be coming together as a team. I could see Kansas losing around seven games this year (give or take), which is probably where the big 10 champion will be as well. Difference being, the big 10 champion will no doubt have a better resume.

That is why Michigan State or Ohio State will be the number one overall seed.

Jeff said...

I'll give you credit for a long, thoughtful response.

My one argument to keep in mind, though, is that the odds of Kansas winning the Big 12 are a lot higher than the odds of anybody winning the Big Ten.

So even if you think that a team that sweeps the Big Ten titles will be seeded ahead of a Kansas team that sweeps the Big 12 titles (and I agree in that respect), you have to consider the probability of any of it happening. If Kansas is the safest bet to get that one seed, I'll put them #1 overall in my bracket projection.

Anonymous said...

You say "the odds of Kansas winning the Big 12 are a lot higher than the odds of anybody (in particular) winning the Big 10", and I agree with that to an extent. Michigan State and Ohio State are probably around 30% each right now to win the conference regular season. Kansas is probably closer to 35% in the Big 12, and I hesitate to put them higher because I feel they're really gonna take their lumps during the first half of conference play. But the thing with predictions is, once we make them we have to work under the assumption that they are 100% accurate. So even though Kansas is more likely to win the Big 12 than Michigan State is to win the Big 10, once you predict Michigan State to be the Big 10 winner, those odds are irrelevant. But I think that's beside your point.

I take your main point that Kansas is more likely to sweep the Big 12 regular and postseason titles. I'd personally put the odds of a Kansas sweep somewhere around 15% (all these numbers are predicated on a drastic KU improvement - if they don't improve much, their odds will be down around 5%). I'd put the odds of Michigan State or Ohio State doing the same thing in the Big 10 around 10% each, and these odds aren't predicated on much improvement for either team.

The two questions:
What are the odds, in your opinion, of Kansas winning the Big 12 Tournament?
What are the odds of the Big 10 regular season champion winning the conference tournament?

Jeff said...

I'm surprised you put Kansas at only 35% to win the Big 12. They've earned a share, what, 9 straight seasons? I'd say it's a two team race with a huge gap to everybody else. Iowa State is the only other team with a shot, and I'm a lot more skeptical about them than the Top 25 polls right now.

I'd put the odds at well over 75% of Kansas getting at least a share of the regular season title.

Anonymous said...

I not a big believer in past success influencing future results. Kansas' current contributors average about one Big 12 title each. I don't think what happened 3, 5, or 7 years ago is neccessarily relevant here.

I put Kansas so low because I'm a big believer in Oklahoma State, I believe there is about a 20% chance of someone outside of Kansas or OSU winning it, and I believe Kansas will be best near the end of the year - unfortunately, their schedule is massively front-loaded.

If Kansas doesn't win the regular season title, it's all moot because they won't be able to pass the Big 10 champ even if they do go on to win the Big 12 conference tournament. We'll work under the assumption that Kansas wins the regular season tournament. What are the odds they'll win the big 12 conference tournament? What are the odds the Big 10 regular season champ wins the Big 10 conference tournament?

Jeff said...

That's fine. You're allowed to disagree with me on whether Kansas or Oklahoma State should be favored, haha.

By the way, as I've said a few times, I actually think Ohio State and Oklahoma State have been the two best performing teams so far this season. I just feel like Oklahoma State's shooting might be a bit unsustainable. And like I said, I think Kansas is a team that should improve a lot over the course of the season, unlike Oklahoma State, which basically is what it will be in March.

But again, those are just my opinions. I respect your right to disagree.

Anonymous said...

I'm not neccessarily disagreeing. My numbers are a prediction of winning the title outright. If it's shared I'd bump Kansas' odds up to maybe 60%, but I also think a shared title would diminish to some degree Kansas' odds of getting the top overall seed.

Since you have Kansas as the number one overall seed, you're obviously working under the assumption that Kansas will at least share the regular season title. I'm cool with that - they have as good a chance as any to at least share the title.

I'm just trying to figure out your odds of Kansas winning the Big 12 tournament (working under the assumption that they win the Big 12 regular season) and the Big 10 regular season champ simultaneously losing in the Big 10 tournament. That is the only scenario Kansas can end up with the overall number one seed.

Jeff said...

My point is that I'm not saying Kansas is going to get the #1 overall seed. Just that they're the most likely team to earn a 1 seed. That's a very different statement.

I agree with that a team that sweeps the Big Ten titles would almost certainly earn the #1 overall seed before Kansas would.

Anonymous said...

You wrote "Kansas slides to the top as the new #1 overall." That is where my confusion lies. Regardless, the Big 10 regular season champ will have the best chance to be the overall #1 (and best chance at a 1 seed in general) heading into conference tournaments.

I thought you seeded teams based on where you felt they'd end up after conference tournaments - not on an algorithm based on each teams success probabilities in regular season and conference tournament games. If that is the case, then I honestly wouldn't have any Big 10 team as a one seed, since no Big 10 team has even close to an even chance of winning the Big 10 regular season or conference tournament.

Jeff said...

I'm trying to predict as best I can where teams will be seeded. So at this point in the season, the team I have atop the 1 seeds is the team most likely to get the 1 seed.

Similarly, the top 2 seed I have is the 2 seed I think has the best chance to earn a 1 seed and the lowest chance to fall to a 3 seed.

I'm not going to worry about which team is #1 or #2 overall on the S-Curve, because as we've learned over the years it's totally destroyed by the conference/geography/etc-forced realignments. There's nothing more meaningless than "#1 overall" in the NCAA Tournament. It's no different from any other 1 seed.

Anonymous said...

I agree with that. Although there are several seed lines I completely disagree with lol.

Also, I'd put the big 10 champ as the last #1 seed, then, because they will have the most tenuous grasp on the top line all season long.

Anonymous said...

As an update, KenPom has released his conference simulations, and has Oklahoma State winning the #1 seed in the conference tournament 50% of the time (I predicted 45%), Kansas winning it 30% of the time (I predicted 35%), and everyone else winning it 20% of the time (I predicted 20%). Not saying either me or Pomeroy are correct, but it's nice to have his models line up pretty well with my independent though process.