Thursday, December 05, 2013

Morning News: UNC Stuns Michigan St, Wisconsin Suffocates Virginia, Ohio St Smokes Maryland

Everything in this video is a BYU honor code violation. Particularly the faces Tyler Haws makes while lip synching.

North Carolina Stuns Michigan State The Tar Heels were 10 point underdogs in this game, so this was a pretty big upset. Michigan State was flat out lazy on the glass and on defense. I thought pregame that UNC's only chance was for Marcus Paige to go nuts (like he had against Louisville), but he was actually pretty quiet here. All of UNC's role players (JP Tokoto, Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, etc) had big nights while Michigan State had a clunker, even aside from the injuries/cramps that kept Keith Appling, Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson on the bench for much of the game.

The media narrative as this game was nearing its end was "OMG UNC IS THE WEIRDEST TEAM EVAR". Wins over Louisville and Michigan State along with losses to Belmont and UAB will do that. But... eh. First of all, it's not exactly a surprise that a young team with streaky scorers that is borderline Top 25 will have a mix of big wins and mediocre losses. And second of all, it's not like we haven't seen this before.

Last year, Villanova beat Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown while losing to Columbia and Seton Hall. Also last year, Virginia beat Duke and Wisconsin while losing to Old Dominion, Delaware, Wake Forest and George Mason. \You can argue that Louisville and Michigan State are a better pair of wins than Villanova or Virginia had last season... but UAB and Belmont are also a better pair of losses. Both of those teams are safely in the Pomeroy Top 100, unlike the 2013 iterations of Old Dominion or Columbia, which were well outside the Top 200. In other words, UNC is a high variance team, but nothing crazier than we've seen before.

Wisconsin Suffocates Virginia We all expected that this would be a low scoring game with a slow tempo and good defense. But this game managed to outdo expectations. Wisconsin's defense, which has been pretty mediocre for much of the season, completely wiped out Virginia's offense here. By the second half, the Cavaliers were getting frustrated and started committing foolish unforced errors, to compound the problem. 1-for-11 three-point shooting didn't help either. In the end, Virginia finished with 0.63 PPP and a putrid 24.5 eFG%. They went a 13:17 stretch without scoring a field goal that was not the same as a separate 9:04 stretch where they didn't have a field goal. Although when you only have 11 field goals in a 40 minute game, you're bound mathematically to have some pretty long stretches without hitting a shot...

Wisconsin has wins over Florida, Saint Louis, St. John's and other likely RPI Top 100 teams, but this is easily their most impressive win. It's not like they shot the ball particularly well either (5-for-23 behind the arc), but they had more options to score in and around the paint, and that was the difference. Wisconsin is a team with clear flaws (particularly rebounding), but they're in contention for a Big Ten title and a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also have a realistic chance to stay undefeated until mid-January. Their only remaining quality non-conference opponent is Marquette at the Kohl Center, and their first few Big Ten games are pretty winnable as well.

Ohio State Smokes Maryland Ohio State was supposed to take care of business against Maryland, and they did. They led by 17 points at halftime and by as many as 25 points in the second half before taking their foot off the pedal. Basically, if you're going to shoot 2-for-18 behind the arc against Ohio State, you're going to lose. The good news for Ohio State (in addition to the score) was a breakout game from LaQuinton Ross scoring 20 points (including 17 in the first half). The Buckeyes are going to need a go-to scorer to win a Big Ten title, and Ross might be the guy. It really shouldn't be Aaron Craft, who just isn't good enough.

The Buckeyes should only have one more non-conference test, on December 21st against Notre Dame. If they get past that then they should be setting up for an epic game January 7th at Michigan State. Both teams could be ranked in the Top 5 in the country. As for Maryland, they're good enough to earn an at-large bid, but they haven't taken advantage of opportunities in non-conference play. They'll probably need to get to 10-8 (or maybe even 11-7) in ACC play to earn an at-large bid now.

2 comments:

nuclearbdgr said...

Virginia actually had three stretches of 9+ minutes without field goals (one in the first half, one in the second half, and one straddled the first/second half)

Jeff said...

That's funny. Somehow I missed the first one.

Another way to think about it is the George Costanza philosophy: If we squeeze all of Virginia's made baskets from 40 minutes into a few tiny stretches of time, their offensive production doesn't look so bad anymore.