Sunday, December 29, 2013

W-11 BP68

For the last few weeks I've been talking about the slow part of the college basketball season around finals and the end of the fall semester. That time of the season is now done. Most of the premier teams in the country will open up conference play next week. Big results should start flying in, and the bracket should start firming up much more quickly.

For this bracket, there were two changes to the Field of 68 that had to be made. Notre Dame and Saint Mary's had to be dropped out. Notre Dame because of Jerian Grant, and Saint Mary's because of their no good very bad week in Hawaii.

So who moves into the Field of 68? That was more difficult to figure out. You can make good cases for Texas, SMU, Providence, Stanford, Arkansas and a couple others, but in the end I went with Arizona State and Illinois. But please don't take this as a huge vote of confidence in either team. I'd put the odds of each of those two teams making the Tournament at under 50%. They're just the best of a bunch of bad choices.

The 1 and 2 seeds stayed the same again this week, which isn't a surprise. Syracuse finally popped in as a 3 seed, but the other 3 seeds all stayed the same. I didn't panic about teams like Kansas, Kentucky and Florida, and as expected those programs are climbing back up the Top 25.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. Florida

3. Oklahoma State
3. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
3. Syracuse

4. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
4. Villanova
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Iowa State

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. UConn
5. Creighton
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. North Carolina
6. Pittsburgh
6. Memphis
6. Oregon

7. St. Louis
7. UMass
7. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
7. Michigan

8. Marquette
8. Baylor
8. Colorado
8. Florida State

9. Virginia
9. San Diego State
9. UCLA
9. Indiana

10. Cincinnati
10. LSU
10. Minnesota
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Missouri
11. Boise State
11. Tennessee
11. Butler

12. Clemson
12. Dayton
12. Arizona State
12. Illinois
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

13. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. BRYANT (NEC)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Maryland, Notre Dame, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah State,  California, Stanford, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, George Washington, Richmond, Purdue, Kansas State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Indiana State, UNLV, Utah, Alabama, Vanderbilt, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Central Florida, Temple, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, DePaul, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Texas A&M

8 comments:

DMoore said...

Is Michigan still a 7 seed with McGary out? My understanding is that the decision for surgery means he is definitely gone for the year.

Jeff said...

I dropped them from a 6 to a 7 seed. The reality is, McGary hadn't been playing well anyway. He's probably been the team's fourth best player so far, so I don't see a reason to expect Michigan's computer ratings to dramatically drop off the next few months.

You could talk me into dropping them to an 8 seed, but no further. Once you get down to the 9 seeds you're into bubble teams, and I just don't see think Michigan is a bubble team, even if McGary doesn't come back.

You Are Nuts said...

Are you ready to admit that you underrated Syracuse as an 8 seed in your Midnight Madness rankings?

I gave you a hard time then, and you said that if Syracuse ends up as a 10 seed you'll never hear from me again. I told you that if that happens, I promise to return, eat my words and admit that you were right. I also asked if SU proves you wrong, I'd appreciate if you would do the same.

You based your low ranking on the fact that Syracuse does not have a "competent offense." Their offense is currently the #1 overall Adjusted Offense in the Pomeroy rankings.

http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=22972768&postID=777346483006955442

Jeff said...

I have changed Syracuse from an 8 seed to a 3 seed. That is my change in opinion about them. What else do you want?

If you were convinced that a 27% three-point shooter was going to turn into a 51% three-point shooter, and that a true freshman would turn into arguably the best offensive point guard in the entire ACC, congratulations. But more likely you were just being a huge Syracuse homer.

As I said correctly, Syracuse did not return a single quality offensive playmaker. CJ Fair is a jump shooter who doesn't create his own shot. Close to 70% of the shots he takes are jumpers (well over half of which are assisted). So without the incredible play by Ennis and Cooney, their offense would be terrible.

Can these guys keep it up? It's possible. Derrick Williams and Victor Oladipo are recent examples of guys who turned from terrible shooters to incredible shooters in one year. But to pretend that I'm a Syracuse hater for not foreseeing such staggering improvement is ridiculous.

Unknown said...

Can you go in depth on why you have Xavier on the outside looking in? Am I missing something?

Currently they are 10-3 with wins over: Tenn(Home), Cincinnati(Neutral), Bama(Road), Wake(Home). Do you see them absolutely bombing in Big East play?

In my opinion, they will be competitive in the Big East. At 10-3 and with 18 games to go(plus BE tournament) we can modestly assume they will go at least 20-11. They have opportunity after opportunity to pick up quality wins. It also looks like they will avoid a bad loss as the entire BE schedule has average or better RPI's. When all is said and done, the worst loss XU will have is against Southern California in a early season tournament on a neutral court outside of the country.

I am not questioning your opinion. I just want to know if I am missing something or if I am overvaluing my Alma Mater.

Thank you!

Jeff said...

Sure. Like I said, there were about 8 teams I could have chosen for those last two spots. I went with Arizona State and Illinois, but easily could have gone with Xavier or one of the others. Those teams are all in that same mix.

10-8 for Xavier seems a reasonable projection, as is 9-9. I think they're going to struggle to win consistently with such a mediocre offense. Their FT% defense is also going to regress (it's currently 2nd in the nation).

In the end, Xavier seems very bubble-ish. Whether they're the last team in the bracket or the first team out at this point doesn't really matter too much.

You Are Nuts said...

Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have both greatly exceeded expectations, and no realistic basketball fan expected Syracuse to have the #1 overall Pomeroy Adjusted Offense. That said, most informed fans had Syracuse way higher than #31 overall (where you had them ranked in your preseason rankings), as evidenced by their early-season rankings of #7 in Sagarin, #15 in Pomeroy and #8 in the AP.

Put another way, no team has moved up your rankings from pre-season to now as much as Syracuse. Even now you have Syracuse ranked #12 overall, which is about as low as you can justifiably rank them.

I'm a frequent reader of your blog, and I think you do a great job and have very interesting insights. However, I've noticed that you're resistant to admitting when you are wrong about a team. After all, it is nothing to be ashamed of - nobody gets all the predictions right.

Jeff said...

I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong about teams. And Syracuse actually isn't my biggest miss from the preseason - it's Boston College. I guess that means I'm a raging homer Boston College fan.

I'm sure most Syracuse fans thought they'd be higher than #31, just like all Marquette fans were convinced they had a Top 15 team this season.

At this very moment, most Baylor fans (and most pollsters) think they have a Top 15 team, when in reality they're probably going to be on the bubble in February.

So this is why I don't ask fans of teams where I should rank them. I'm not interested in that "informed" opinion.