W-1.5 BP68

The battle for the final 1 seed continues to be extremely complicated, and it's mixed up with the battle for the 2-4 seeds, which are all very evenly matched.

Obviously Duke drops from the 1 seed line with their loss, and the last bracketologists with Syracuse as a 1 seed had to drop them as well, but so much will come down to the conference tournaments. Teams like Villanova, Michigan and Wisconsin will all have real shots at a 1 seed if they can win their conference tournament, but also could easily be a 3 seed, or perhaps even a 4 seed, if they go down early. Kansas is my last 1 seed now, but if they lose again then they're probably out of the 1 seed competition as well.

The bubble continues to get stronger, and is perhaps the strongest I've ever seen it one and a half weeks out. We're not even getting half-hearted "this is the weakest bubble I've ever seen" talk from the media. Teams like Baylor, Oregon and Providence got key wins in the last few days. And so teams like Georgetown and Minnesota continue to be stuck on the outside looking in, though obviously they still will get their chances over the next week and a half to get back into the Field of 68.

There were no changes to the Field of 68 this week, in fact. Four teams were eliminated however: Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue and Texas A&M. That leaves 29 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid 

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2. Michigan
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Virginia

3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
3. Wisconsin
3. Villanova

4. North Carolina
4. Syracuse
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Oklahoma

5. Cincinnati
5. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. New Mexico
5. Texas

6. Iowa State
6. UCLA
6. UConn
6. SMU

7. Ohio State
7. UMass
7. Kentucky
7. Iowa

8. VCU
8. George Washington
8. Memphis
8. GONZAGA (WCC)

9. Kansas State
9. Arizona State
9. Oregon
9. Pittsburgh

10. Colorado
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Baylor
10. Saint Joseph's

11. Oklahoma State
11. Xavier
11. BYU
11. Providence

12. Stanford
12. Tennessee
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. California
12. St. John's
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Florida State, Dayton, Georgetown, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Marquette, Southern Miss, Missouri

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, West Virginia, UTEP, Georgia, LSU, Saint Mary's

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State, Richmond, Illinois, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, Washington, Mississippi, Vanderbilt