Thursday, February 19, 2015

W-3.5 BP68

It was a relatively quiet few days at the top of the bracket. The biggest movers were Oklahoma and Iowa State moving up, with Louisville dropping down a seed line after the indefinite suspension of Chris Jones.

It seems fairly easy to say that there are nine teams fighting for the eight slots as 1 and 2 seeds. It's seemed that way for a while now, and I still think that's probably the case. But if Oklahoma can finish strong and take out Kansas in their season finale, they will have a real chance to earn a 2 seed by making the Big 12 title game.

The at-large teams near the bottom of the bracket mostly had bad performances over the past few days, meaning that the bubble has gotten a little bit weaker. In the end, I didn't change which at-large teams I'm projecting to make the Tourney, though Texas A&M is now the first team out of the bracket after taking care of business against LSU.

There was one change to the Field of 68, which was Albany becoming the new projected favorite in the America East, with Vermont dropping out.

Five teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Auburn, DePaul, UNLV, St. Bonaventure and Wake Forest. That leaves 48 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VIRGINIA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
3. Iowa State

4. Louisville
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Notre Dame
4. Baylor

5. Ohio State
5. Butler
5. Northern Iowa
5. SMU (AAC)

6. Georgetown
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Texas
6. Arkansas

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Oklahoma State

8. Michigan State
8. Xavier
8. Providence
8. Dayton

9. Cincinnati
9. Iowa
9. Indiana
9. Temple

10. Colorado State
10. St. John's
10. Davidson
10. Mississippi

11. Illinois
11. Georgia
11. Stanford
11. Miami-Florida
11. NC State

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. BYU
12. LSU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Boise State, UCLA, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Purdue, Oregon, Florida, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, George Washington, UMass, Seton Hall, Kansas State, Old Dominion, UTEP, Valparaiso, Oregon State, Alabama, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, Florida State, La Salle, Richmond, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, TCU, Western Kentucky, Yale, Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Evansville, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Washington, Washington State, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St

2 comments:

DMoore said...

It looks like you are projecting Virginia to win the ACC tournament. If that's the case, why are you not projecting they will get a 1 seed? Are you saying that you project Arizona will win out, and UVA will lose enough regular season games to fall behind them in the brackets?

Jeff said...

Well what I'm trying to do here is not to guess the result of every game exactly. So while I'm projecting Virginia to win the ACC tournament, I still think their odds of winning the ACC tournament are only in the 20-25% range. Arizona and Wisconsin both have significantly easier paths to sweeping their conference titles.

Obviously if Virginia wins out they'll get a 1 seed.