W-4 BP68

We're closer to the end of the season than you think we are. Don't believe me? The University of San Diego had their Senior Day on Saturday. Also, Murray State clinched the Ohio Valley Conference regular season title, clinching at least a berth in the NIT.

Anyway, there's very little change near the top of the projected bracket this week, but quite a lot of churning again in the 9-12 seed range. Two new at-large teams moved into the Field of 68: NC State and LSU. They replace Tulsa and Florida, who drop out.

Among the auto bids, there is another change to the Field of 68, where UC-Davis replaces UC-Irvine as the Big West favorite. In addition, SMU replaces Cincinnati as the AAC favorite, though that only has seeding implications, as both teams are clear of the bubble for now.

Also, the bubble is definitely starting to thin out, which is what we'd expect as we reach the tail end of the regular season.

Five teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: Georgia Tech, Illinois State, Marquette, New Mexico and Texas Tech. That leaves 53 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. Just four weeks ago we had 85 teams. So the potential pool of bubble teams is shallowing quickly.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VIRGINIA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Notre Dame
4. Baylor

5. Ohio State
5. Butler
5. Northern Iowa
5. SMU (AAC)

6. Georgetown
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Oklahoma State
6. Texas

7. Arkansas
7. Cincinnati
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Maryland

8. West Virginia
8. Iowa
8. Dayton
8. Michigan State

9. Xavier
9. Providence
9. Stanford
9. St. John's

10. Colorado State
10. Indiana
10. Temple
10. Georgia

11. Illinois
11. Davidson
11. Mississippi
11. Miami-Florida
11. NC State

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. BYU
12. LSU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Minnesota, UCLA, Florida, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, UMass, Kansas State, Old Dominion, UTEP, Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Oregon State, Washington, Alabama, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, Florida State, Wake Forest, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, DePaul, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, TCU, Western Kentucky, Yale, Akron, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Evansville, UNLV, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St