Sunday, February 01, 2015

W-6 BP68

There was a shake-up at the top of the bracket this week, which isn't a surprise with all the action in the ACC. In something that I'm pretty sure is unprecedented for my projected brackets, I'm moving Virginia ahead of Duke as the ACC favorite despite Duke actually winning at Virginia. The problem is, Duke also lost to Notre Dame this week and lost Rasheed Sulaimon from their roster, and I just don't think Virginia looked anything like their best today against Duke. Virginia remains the favorite for the 1 seed in the ACC tournament, and I think that as the 1 seed they'll be favored to win it.

The ACC isn't the only conference where I'm changing the projected favorite. Another is the AAC, where Cincinnati has replaced UConn as the conference favorite.

As for the bubble, there are no changes in the makeup of the Field of 68, though the bubble did expand in size. In my view, there's a pretty big drop-off between my 8 seeds and my 10 seeds. Those 10-11-12 seeds are all dicey at-large teams at best. And several of those teams just outside the bracket have a reasonable case, including a big pile of SEC teams that need to find some kind of separation from each other.

There were changes to the Field of 68, and those consisted of five one-bid leagues changing their favorite. UC-Irvine replaces UC Santa Barbara in the Big West, William & Mary replaces Hofstra in the Colonial, High Point replaces Coastal Carolina in the Big South, Colgate replaces American in the America East, and St. Francis-NY replaces St. Francis-PA in the NEC.

Just four teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: George Mason, Indiana State, Loyola-Chicago and Northeastern. That leaves 74 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)

2. VIRGINIA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Utah
3. Oklahoma

4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Texas
4. Notre Dame

5. West Virginia
5. Ohio State
5. Georgetown
5. Baylor

6. SMU
6. Maryland
6. Northern Iowa
6. CINCINNATI (AAC)

7. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
7. Butler
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Michigan State

8. Oklahoma State
8. Arkansas
8. Stanford
8. Providence

9. Xavier
9. Seton Hall
9. Dayton
9. Iowa

10. Miami-Florida
10. St. John's
10. Colorado State
10. Florida

11. Syracuse
11. Indiana
11. UConn
11. NC State
11. BYU

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Illinois
12. Davidson
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Minnesota, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Rhode Island, Michigan, Kansas State, TCU, Old Dominion, Wyoming, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Alabama, Tennessee, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Clemson, Richmond, Marquette, Purdue, UTEP, Western Kentucky, Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Evansville, Illinois State,  Boise State, New Mexico, Arizona State, Colorado, South Carolina,

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Tulane, Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, La Salle, UMass, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Creighton, DePaul, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, UC Davis, Long Beach St, Yale, Akron, Central Michigan, Kent St, Western Michigan, UNLV, Utah St, California, USC, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St, Pepperdine,

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I realize BYU is one of your last teams to make it so they probably miss it but what are you projecting they do between now and Selection Sunday to make it? Do you have them winning out with only two losses to Gonzaga (one in conference tourney). That seems pretty unlikely. I suspect you'll drop them out when they lose at Pepperdine coming up but I just don't see how they make it without a win over Gonzaga (very unlikely). Love the site and the bracket projections.

Jeff said...

Yes, you are correct that I think BYU's chances of getting in are under 50%. That said, they don't have to beat Gonzaga. I think they get in at 13-5 (which would likely move their RPI into the Top 40), which means that they can afford one more loss. So they can lose to Gonzaga, but then they need to win out, which means winning that Pepperdine game as well as the Saint Mary's game.