Sunday, December 13, 2015

W-13 BP68

Trying to judge the strength of the tourney bubble this far out is fairly pointless, but it is worth noting that a bunch of the teams projected to finish in the vicinity of the bubble had nice performances this week.

At the end of the season, non-conference wins and losses will not matter too much, so we have to use these November and December games to judge the teams themselves as much as we judge their raw wins and losses. So for example, Florida has had very impressive computer numbers (Top 25 in both Pomeroy and Sagarin) despite losing their two games against quality opponents. They lost on Saturday in their third game against a quality opponent, but it was on the road at Michigan State and they pushed the game down to the final possession. Even though that won't show up as a win on Selection Sunday, it was impressive evidence that Florida's high computer numbers are legitimate. And so for that reason, Florida slid into the projected Field of 68 this week despite not actually winning a game all week.

Dropping out to make room for Florida is Ohio State. They had not been playing like a tourney team all season, but with so much young talent it's easy to project improved play later this season. That said, they have dug themselves quite the hole, and even if we assume some reasonable improvement by March, it's awfully hard to project them as a tourney team for now.

One other change in the Field of 68 is the NEC favorite, where Wagner replaces Robert Morris.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday 2016:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Virginia
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Oklahoma

3. Duke
3. Purdue
3. Xavier
3. Iowa State

4. Maryland
4. UCONN (AAC)
4. Baylor
4. GONZAGA (WCC)

5. Cincinnati
5. Miami-Florida
5. Louisville
5. Vanderbilt

6. West Virginia
6. Butler
6. Texas A&M
6. UCLA

7. Oregon
7. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Iowa
7. Georgetown

8. Utah
8. Dayton
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
8. Texas

9. Pittsburgh
9. Indiana
9. Notre Dame
9. Providence

10. Michigan
10. Wisconsin
10. Florida State
10. Syracuse

11. South Carolina
11. California
11. George Washington
11. Florida
11. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

12. UNLV
12. LSU
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)

14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UT-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
14. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
14. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Tulsa, NC State, Rhode Island, VCU, Marquette, Ohio State, Northern Iowa, Boise State, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon State, USC

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Temple, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Creighton, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Evansville, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, BYU, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Houston, Virginia Tech, Fordham, UMass, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, TCU, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Northeastern, Old Dominion, Yale, Kent State, Loyola-Chicago, Fresno State, Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Where's Arkansas-Little Rock?

Jeff said...

I think they're underdogs to Texas-Arlington at this point.