Sunday, January 31, 2016

W-6 BP68

There were two changes to the Field of 68 this week. Among the at-larges, Syracuse moves in while George Washington drops out. Among the automatic bids, Yale moves in as the new Ivy favorite, replacing Princeton.

Meanwhile, we're starting to trim the fat from the full bubble. 21 teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Ball State, Bowling Green, UC-Santa Barbara, East Tennessee State, Eastern Michigan, Elon, Iona, La Salle, UMass, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Missouri State, Navy, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota State, Northeastern, Tennessee State, Toledo, Tulane, Western Kentucky, and Wyoming. That leaves 90 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Texas A&M

4. Purdue
4. Louisville
4. West Virginia
4. Oregon

5. Iowa State
5. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Miami-Florida
5. Michigan

6. Baylor
6. USC
6. Providence
6. Indiana

7. Duke
7. Florida
7. Texas
7. Utah

8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
8. Notre Dame
8. UCONN (AAC)
8. Seton Hall

9. Cincinnati
9. VCU
9. Florida State
9. GONZAGA (WCC)

10. Saint Mary's
10. Saint Joseph's
10. Colorado
10. Vanderbilt

11. Butler
11. Pittsburgh
11. California
11. Syracuse
11. South Carolina
11. LSU

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Georgetown, Ohio State, Evansville, UCLA

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, St. Bonaventure, Creighton, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Boise State, Oregon State, Washington, Arkansas, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Houston, Memphis, Temple, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Davidson, Rhode Island, Richmond, Illinois, Nebraska, UC-Irvine, UNC-Wilmington, William & Mary, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, East Carolina, Albany, Boston College, Duquesne, Fordham, Saint Louis, DePaul, Marquette, St. John's, Weber State, Penn State, Rutgers, Oklahoma State, TCU, Long Beach State, Charleston, James Madison, Towson, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Old Dominion, Oakland, Siena, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Illinois State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mercer, Texas A&M-CC, IPFW, Georgia State, Louisiana Lafayette, UT-Arlington, Pepperdine

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Any particular reason other than "Bill Self" that you have Kansas winning the Big 12 when they are projected to lose the B12 race by 3 games according to KenPom?

Jeff said...

Capitalized teams are projected auto bid winners, not regular season winners.

As a side note, there's a bit of rounding going into Kansas being "three games back" in the projected Pomeroy standings. Sagarin projects Kansas to go 12-6 and Oklahoma to go 13-5, or just "one game back". That race is still likely to end up very close.

Anonymous said...

Gotcha. I figured you just went with the projected regular season winner as the auto-bid earner.

Jeff said...

Yeah. Michigan State and Kentucky are two other examples where I have a team unlikely to win the regular season title projected as the auto bid winner.