Saturday, March 12, 2016

D-1 BP68

Tomorrow is Selection Sunday. We are here. And that means, among other things, that it's time for "seed scrubbing" (at least it is for me). It's time to go team by team, in depth, to try to really delve into these resumes in the same way that the Selection Committee will. I will do much more of this later today and tomorrow, but it was time to start, and so several teams have slid up or down my projected bracket after increased scrutiny.

I feel like I say this every year, but Championship Week is more fun, and is more insane, than the first week of the NCAA Tournament. The general public will show up next week, but hoops junkies can't get enough of a crazy night like we just had.

The result of all of that action is a muddying of the bubble, but also a separating of the chaff. I don't have a lot of confidence of any of the five teams I currently have as 11 seeds getting in. For now, however, I slid Michigan and Monmouth in while dropping Tulsa and South Carolina out.

Meanwhile, three conferences had a change in projected champion: Middle Tennessee replaces UAB as the Conference USA favorite, Hampton replaces Norfolk State in the MEAC, and Southern replaces Texas Southern in the SWAC.

Speaking of separating the chaff, 8 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: UC-Irvine, Creighton, Georgia Tech, Houston, Mississippi, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, and Washington. That leaves just 14 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Virginia

2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Oklahoma
2. OREGON (PAC-12)
2. West Virginia

3. Xavier
3. Miami-Florida
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Utah

4. Indiana
4. Iowa State
4. Texas A&M
4. California

5. Purdue
5. Duke
5. Maryland
5. Baylor

6. Arizona
6. Texas
6. Iowa
6. Notre Dame

7. Wisconsin
7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Seton Hall
7. Providence

8. Colorado
8. Texas Tech
8. Saint Joseph's
8. UCONN (AAC)

9. St. Bonaventure
9. Butler
9. Oregon State
9. USC

10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. VCU
10. Saint Mary's
10. Wichita State

11. Cincinnati
11. Vanderbilt
11. Pittsburgh
11. Michigan
11. Monmouth
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. AKRON (MAC)
12. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. NORTHERN IOWA (MISSOURI VALLEY)

13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
13. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
13. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)

14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (NEC)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Temple, Syracuse, Florida, South Carolina

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Valparaiso

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
George Washington, LSU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Davidson, Ohio State, Hofstra, Princeton, Alabama, Georgia

1 comment:

Stirge said...

ESPN had Syracuse going instead of Monmouth. Also, I'm guessing Villanova is no longer a one seed