Sunday, February 05, 2017

W-5 BP68

It was a tough week for the bubble, and so programs that picked up big wins were able to slide well up the bracket, most notably Oklahoma State. Teams like Minnesota and Kansas State, which seem like dicey bubble teams, are actually in relatively safely at the moment, though obviously they're just a bad loss or two away from trouble again.

In all, three teams moved into the bracket this week: Rhode Island, TCU, and Bucknell. Bucknell is the new Patriot League favorite, replacing Lehigh. The two at-large teams replaced are Arkansas and Michigan, who both fell out of the bracket after brutal losses.

As we're only five weeks from Selection Sunday, the unrealistic bubble teams are sliding off of the Full Bubble and we're starting to get real clarity on which teams will be seriously competing for the final few at-large bids. 9 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Eastern Michigan, George Mason, George Washington, Louisiana-Lafayette, Loyola-Chicago, Marshall, North Dakota State, Northeastern, and Ohio. That leaves just 60 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. Close to 50 more teams will be eliminated over the next five weeks.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. North Carolina

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)

3. Louisville
3. Baylor
3. Purdue
3. Florida

4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. West Virginia
4. Duke
4. Oregon

5. UCLA
5. Florida State
5. Saint Mary's
5. SMU

6. South Carolina
6. Xavier
6. Butler
6. Maryland

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Notre Dame
7. Creighton
7. Iowa State

8. Northwestern
8. Kansas State
8. Minnesota
8. Oklahoma State

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. VCU
9. Michigan State
9. Wake Forest

10. Indiana
10. Virginia Tech
10. Clemson
10. Marquette

11. Miami-Florida
11. California
11. TCU
11. USC
11. Utah
11. Rhode Island

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Syracuse, Michigan, Illinois St, Arkansas, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Seton Hall, Ohio St, Texas Tech, Georgia

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
UCF, Memphis, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Georgetown, Providence, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Davidson, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Charleston, Iona, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Wyoming, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Chattanooga, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, San Francisco

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