tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post6010042574345048540..comments2023-09-01T06:51:04.030-04:00Comments on Basketball Predictions: W-3 BP65Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-79013872410775872612010-02-24T12:18:42.760-05:002010-02-24T12:18:42.760-05:00I'll put more thought into the new seeds tonig...I'll put more thought into the new seeds tonight when I'm putting together my next bracket, but right now I'm leaning towards keeping West Virginia as the last two seed. If the season ended now it would be between them and Ohio State for that last 2 seed. I don't see Butler or Wisconsin as anything higher than a 3 right now, and Michigan State will actually move down from a 3 seed to a 4 or 5.<br /><br />And I don't think Tennessee moves much at all. They're a 6 or 7 seed right now.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-37162960235041864822010-02-24T11:51:55.898-05:002010-02-24T11:51:55.898-05:00Jeff,
Does WVU move down to a 3 seed after losing...Jeff,<br /><br />Does WVU move down to a 3 seed after losing to UCONN? Also, where does Tennessee land after losing to Florida? Florida's 11 seed feels about right to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-2054264302808779082010-02-24T10:12:55.981-05:002010-02-24T10:12:55.981-05:00Northern Iowa will be fine. They didn't have ...Northern Iowa will be fine. They didn't have Eglseder last night, and getting to 15-3 in the MVC in a year where so many bubble teams are shooting themselves in the foot - they will be in even if they don't win the tourney.<br /><br />It does seem kind of funny to me that everywhere you go you hear how bad this loss is. Yet when Gonzaga loses to San Francisco (who is just as bad as Evansville) and Loyola Marymount, it seems like nobody says a word.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-69423717421666441412010-02-24T10:10:19.886-05:002010-02-24T10:10:19.886-05:00UNI will drop a little bit for that bad loss, but ...UNI will drop a little bit for that bad loss, but you're overdoing it by saying that they'll actually be on the bubble if they lose in the MVC tournament. They will have to lose at <i>least</i> two more times to potentially end up on the bubble.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-9250283819370045942010-02-24T01:50:09.439-05:002010-02-24T01:50:09.439-05:00Time to move UNI down a few seed lines. Losing to...Time to move UNI down a few seed lines. Losing to Evansville is TERRIBLE. Their resume "looks" solid as well, but wins against Siena, ODU and Wichita St don't mean much when you lose to Evansville, Depaul and Bradley.<br /><br />They are an 8-10 seed right now and if they don't win out and win their tournament, they will be sweating on Selection Sunday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-41726406801830346972010-02-23T16:18:41.478-05:002010-02-23T16:18:41.478-05:00It is also not too hard to see the Spiders finishi...It is also not too hard to see the Spiders finishing 2-1 with wins over sliding Dayton and Charlotte. That would leave them with a 24-7 (13-3) record, with at worst the 3rd seed in the A-10 tournament. Say they go 1-1 in the tourney and finish up 25-8. I think that would likely leave them with an RPI in the range of 24. I would guess they would likely check in at an 8 or 9 seed at worst.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-82605094713175083972010-02-23T12:09:19.786-05:002010-02-23T12:09:19.786-05:00I think he might be a little bit, but I don't ...I think he might be a little bit, but I don't think Richmond is a seven like most think. It's not hard to see them finishing their final three games 1-2.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-29568846077510398122010-02-23T11:21:07.639-05:002010-02-23T11:21:07.639-05:00You seem to be consistently under-seeding Richmond...You seem to be consistently under-seeding Richmond. Based on your seed for them, it seems like you think Richmond is only going to win only one game before selection time. They are playing really well now and should gather at least 2 wins before selection time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-55199819638461117222010-02-23T09:21:45.034-05:002010-02-23T09:21:45.034-05:00I agree with Michigan St...I think I've said i...I agree with Michigan St...I think I've said it before too that they aren't a 6. People think they're really good because they went to the national championship last year, but most didn't think they would miss Suton and Walton as much as they have. Their bench is awful, and they don't have Lucas' injury as an excuse anymore. Plus, they still have to play @ Purdue. I doubt they'll end up even getting a four.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-90520052524364980772010-02-23T09:03:53.465-05:002010-02-23T09:03:53.465-05:00If the season ended now UConn would be in and Cinc...If the season ended now UConn would be in and Cincy would be out, yes. As for how they're going to end... I haven't looked at either team's remaining schedule since their last result, so I can't say for sure. I'll look either tonight or tomorrow so that I'll be ready for tomorrow's new bracket.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53065552872556047722010-02-23T04:36:02.364-05:002010-02-23T04:36:02.364-05:00After the recent results I have to assume that UCo...After the recent results I have to assume that UConn is in and Cincinnati is out. Especially with each team's remaining games. UConn is predicted to end up 19-12, and I see Cincinnati ending up 16-14.<br /><br />I also think UConn will be one of many teams given extra consideration because of a key injury in the season (Calhoun). I suspect there will be some surprises in the seeding this year, if the committee "forgives" some losses if a team turns things around once they get the player back. Clemson is a good example, and Wisconsin could be if they play well after the return of Leuer.DMoorenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-36304325766153821282010-02-23T00:24:42.679-05:002010-02-23T00:24:42.679-05:00I really don't see Michigan St. attaining a 3 ...I really don't see Michigan St. attaining a 3 seed.They'll most likely end the regular season 23-8. Their only quality wins are Gonzaga and Wisconsin, both at home. They have no quality road victories. Their RPI and KenPom numbers will hover in the mid 20's. Unless they win the Big 10 tourney they're a 4 at best. Right now they're closer to a 6.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-55687763680322902462010-02-22T22:34:04.121-05:002010-02-22T22:34:04.121-05:00*Time*TimeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-59206170306695311702010-02-22T22:33:29.101-05:002010-02-22T22:33:29.101-05:00To to drop WVU. 2 seed? Not really.To to drop WVU. 2 seed? Not really.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-21071730627575264942010-02-22T14:57:53.785-05:002010-02-22T14:57:53.785-05:00You could've had Pitt over Butler before yeste...You could've had Pitt over Butler before yesterday. After all, this is a projected end of season bracket right? Aren't you supposed to see things like Pitt beating Nova?<br /><br />If not, then you might as well do as of now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-76260366213109335652010-02-22T14:19:50.052-05:002010-02-22T14:19:50.052-05:00A Jam C, as I said, viewed in a vacuum the Butler ...A Jam C, as I said, viewed in a vacuum the Butler resume seems like a 4/5 resume, but I have them at a 3 right now because the other teams fighting for 3/4 seeds have all had bad weeks (or <i>had</i> bad weeks when this post was written... obviously Pitt had a nice win yesterday).<br /><br />The problem for Butler is that they have no more good opponents on their schedule. The odds are that some of the teams that I currently have below Butler, like Wisconsin, Pitt, Wake, Michigan State, New Mexico, etc, will get hot down the stretch and leap over Butler.<br /><br />But if the other contenders for 3 seeds keep falling apart, then certainly Butler still has a great shot.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-71402777856132307332010-02-22T12:47:14.756-05:002010-02-22T12:47:14.756-05:00Jeff, first off, thanks a lot for your hard work a...Jeff, first off, thanks a lot for your hard work and putting this together. Secondly, I really hope you're right about Butler being a three seed. With the selection committee's recent placements of Butler though, I think they're not going to put them nearly that high. I think they value high profile wins a lot more, which is something that Butler doesn't get as much of a shot at since they're a Horizon league team. But yeah, a 3 seed would make me ecstatic, and I hope they make you look like a very smart man on selection Sunday.OAGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15446875211756964019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-81979559841351347822010-02-22T12:10:09.833-05:002010-02-22T12:10:09.833-05:00Is Wake really still a four? They've dropped ...Is Wake really still a four? They've dropped their last two and are now only 18-7 overall. RPI is no longer in the 20s, one top 25 win, .500 against RPI top 50. I just don't see it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-3244290844884301572010-02-22T10:51:27.905-05:002010-02-22T10:51:27.905-05:00Fair enough, Jeff. Thanks for that at least. I hop...Fair enough, Jeff. Thanks for that at least. I hope the Lobos prove you wrong. :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-83853616909362409102010-02-22T09:47:30.041-05:002010-02-22T09:47:30.041-05:00"So how can you look at your own statement co..."So how can you look at your own statement compared to the New Mexico statement and justify Butler being ahead of them?"<br />------------------<br /><br />Because I expect New Mexico to lose at least one more time, and I expect Butler to win out. If New Mexico wins every game between now and Selection Sunday then they'll be seeded ahead of Butler, no question.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-61624449435933270552010-02-22T09:09:20.245-05:002010-02-22T09:09:20.245-05:00BTW, just in case you want to say New Mexico beats...BTW, just in case you want to say New Mexico beats up on the lower half of the Top 50 RPI, here's the UNM-Butler comparison by Top 50 RPI wins:<br /><br />BUTLER:<br />Xavier - 19<br />Siena - 36<br />Ohio St. - 41<br /><br />NEW MEXICO:<br />Texas A&M - 13<br />BYU - 22<br />California - 24<br />Dayton - 37<br />San Diego St. - 38<br />UNLV - 43<br />Texas Tech - 46<br /><br />Again, UNM wins this head-to-head comparisonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-9509234842412790982010-02-22T09:05:08.165-05:002010-02-22T09:05:08.165-05:00Jeff,
You said the following:
"Butler is 25...Jeff,<br /><br />You said the following:<br /><br />"Butler is 25-4 with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 50 and an 8-4 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 18th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 19th."<br /><br />Using the same language you used:<br /><br />"New Mexico is 25-3 with a 7-2 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 10-2 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 9th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 12th."<br /><br />So how can you look at your own statement compared to the New Mexico statement and justify Butler being ahead of them?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-74424192923135304762010-02-22T09:03:29.480-05:002010-02-22T09:03:29.480-05:00With regards to the A-10, one would have to assume...With regards to the A-10, one would have to assume that Dayton will drop off the board w/the loss to Duquense yesterday & probably winning 2 of their last 4 games.<br /><br />If URI wins out & beats Charlotte, I think URI gets in. Charlotte will probably split their last 4 games...not giving them enough to make it.<br /><br />When it is all said & done, I think Temple, Richmond, Xavier, & Rhode Island make it.<br /><br />Charlotte & Dayton may need win a game or two in the A-10 tourny to make it. Then you have St Louis who is playing great at home (has the next 3 games at home), so they may cause some damage.<br /><br />All & all, the A-10 this has been phenomenal to watch.Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-68232507795528028242010-02-22T02:09:07.755-05:002010-02-22T02:09:07.755-05:00"Duke has 1 RPI top 25 win: #21 Wake...This i..."Duke has 1 RPI top 25 win: #21 Wake...This is not the resume of a #1 seed."<br /><br />The RPI is a horrible measure of how strong teams are. That's why I used the KenPom numbers rather than RPI numbers. According to KenPom's numbers, here the opponents Duke has played that are top 25 teams:<br />Wisconsin (10) 0-1<br />Maryland (12) 1-0<br />Florida State (16) 1-0<br />Clemson (18) 2-0<br />Georgetown (19) 0-1<br />Georgia Tech (21) 1-1<br /><br />They're 5-3 against those teams. Wake Forest is 36th by this measure. Duke is 23-4 against the 2nd toughest schedule in the country (or 8th per the RPI). That should put them in the discussion.<br /><br />Even using the RPI numbers, Kentucky only has 3 RPI Top 25 wins -- Twice over Vandy and once over Tennessee. And yet, I think there's pretty universal agreement they're close to a lock for a 1 seed.<br /><br />The point is that this year, there are three teams that seem like clear 1 seeds, and three teams that are neck and neck for the final one. I don't see anything to clearly distinguish one from the other yet.DMoorenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-42652428245644372592010-02-21T23:16:23.061-05:002010-02-21T23:16:23.061-05:00If we use the Sagarin PREDICTOR, it projects a 0.9...If we use the Sagarin PREDICTOR, it projects a 0.94 point victory for Tennessee at home against Kentucky. I'd say a "pick-em" is the best way to call that game.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.com