Friday, March 21, 2008

So Much For Intuition

I talked earlier about how Drake's Tournament run would help settle whether I should trust my intuition or the numbers. My intuition said that Drake is a very good team that was underrated as a #5 seed. The numbers said that they were set for an early upset. I couldn't bring myself to take Drake to actually lose their first game, but I split the difference and switched my second round victor from Drake to UConn. Now, I'm still not sure I'd bet on Drake to lose that first game if they play the game again. But the numbers said that this would be a close one - the classic 5/12 game. WKU came shooting out of a rifle, while Drake was at least partially looking ahead. Once the Hilltoppers opened up a late double-digit lead, Drake finally felt the pressure come off. They were playing with house money and made a frantic comeback. Once they got it into overtime, you had to figure that WKU couldn't beat them twice, as the saying goes. But when you're in a close game, sometimes stuff happens... like a 27 footer as time runs out.

As for Saint Mary's, once again the numbers prove right. It's amazing how good the Sagarin ratings are for putting together a bracket. A couple days ago I picked the six Tournament teams with the largest disparities in their ELO_CHESS and PREDICTOR rankings. The three teams most likely to over-achieve all pulled off first round victories. The two teams most likely to under-achieve that have played so far have lost their first game. That's a pretty bad omen for Vanderbilt tonight.

Finally, UConn is definitely in a lot of trouble against San Diego. In every way, the Toreros are the poor man's Gonzaga. And we all know that Gonzaga was most dangerous early in its run, when it was the underdog that could sneak up on the powerhouses. San Diego is not going to blow this game with stupid mistakes, like Belmont did yesterday. If anything, the Huskies have been a sloppy team all year, and will probably be the messier team in the second half. The only way UConn is going to win this game is if they play a very strong second half. San Diego is absolutely not going to beat itself.

Some More Thursday Notes

Duke was really exposed in that Belmont game. Did you ever think you'd see a #15 seed that looked faster, stronger and more athletic than a #2 seed? I'm still picking Duke to make the Elite Eight because they have an easy route, but I just can't see how they beat UCLA without shooting about 60% from behind the arc. Kevin Love will get about 20 rebounds against Duke, and Duke's poor transition defense will lead to Love outlet passes and fastbreaks. Not to mention that if Duke's guards were getting torched off the dribble at will by Belmont, what is going to happen when Darren Collison shows up - a player that I have said has the "quickest first step in the country."

USC lost that game last night more than Kansas State won it. USC was just outhustled, and that led to ten fewer shots from the field (the foul shots were even). USC was basically even or ahead in every important stat (including shooting percentage) other than shots taken. You'd think USC got enough practice by playing Kevin Love, Jordan Hill and the Lopez twins, and I don't think that was the problem. I've just thought all year that USC is a team that thought it was a bit better than it really was. All of those hyped freshmen started thinking Final Four run (it was shocking how many analysts picked them to the Sweet Sixteen), and they forgot that they were playing a fairly evenly matched team in the first round. Kansas State played like it was their last game of the season, and USC didn't. In retrospect, it was a mistake for me to discount the possibility of USC being too over-confident, based on all of their ego issues. And it led me to one of my two losses on the day (the other being Purdue).


West Virginia's win sets up a very interesting second round game with Duke. Both teams are amazing at hitting the three-pointer (WVU was 11-for-19 in this one). I think West Virginia has slightly better size, although the overall athleticism on the two teams are pretty similar. This game could come down to who is hitting their threes, but if both teams get hot then we'll be in for an entertaining battle. As for Arizona, this was one of the most obvious losses to pick in the Tournament for me. This team has just completely fallen apart with this head coach strife. The only player who looked like he really cared was Jordan Hill. Hopefully this team can get reunited in the offseason, because they just have way too much talent for their season to end like this.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Sometimes The Better Team Wins

This blog post title refers to the Purdue game, where I picked an upset because major conference #11 seeds tend to win nearly half of the time, and Baylor had the psychological advantage of being trashed all week as the last team in. But the fact is, psychology only goes so far, and sometimes it just comes down to the fact that Purdue is clearly a far superior team to Baylor. Of course, this game might not be such a bad omen for Baylor. Last team into the Tournament, getting a #11 seed, getting trashed in the first round... does that sound familiar? It's what happened to Stanford last year, a team that came back this year with a #3 seed. I'm sure Baylor would take that next season.

As for the UNLV game, a lot of analysts will be shocked by that result, but don't say I didn't warn you. It wasn't just that Kent State performed weakly on the road, as I talked about in my last post. It's also that they entered today with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 24th, and a PREDICTOR of 72nd, which is why Kent State was listed as a team to bet against here. Kent State is a tough team when you're discounting them, which is why they managed to shock St. Mary's on the road. But they entered this one as the favorites, which caused them to come out complacent and tight. They are going to have nightmares about all of those turnovers, but it's hard not to expect something like that to happen to a team like Kent St when they wake up on a Thursday morning and find that they're favored to win a Tournament game. It's a lot of pressure.

And Pitt... wow. Oral Roberts is a dangerous team, and Pitt just wasn't messing around. They have been an outstanding team since Levance Fields became fully healthy. Poor Memphis - they get a #1 seed only to find themselves playing an outstanding team in the Sweet 16 (either Michigan State or Pitt). And then their reward for surviving that one will either be the Lopez twins and Stanford, or Texas playing in Houston. I'm already looking forward to that Pitt/Michigan State game on Saturday, which might be the best second round game. With all of the bruisers that both of those teams have on the inside, that will not be a game for the faint-hearted.

First Day Thoughts

I don't think anybody can be too shocked with what Georgia has been up to today. I figured Xavier would win this one because they are the better team, but Georgia is obviously coming in here with SEC-level talent. They have the horses to win this one. I do have to say that I heard some pretty idiotic analysis of this one beforehand - that Georgia was going to lose this one because they were too worn out from the SEC Tournament. I heard this several times from several different sources. If the team can win three games in two days... I'm pretty sure they can find a way to stay energized to win one game after three days off to recover.

Michigan State seems to be taking care of all of the Big Ten bashing heading into the Tournament. The majority of brackets I saw had zero Big Ten teams in the Sweet Sixteen, which is just a misunderstanding of how college basketball is played. In the NBA playoffs, the team with the best player usually wins. But college basketball is about the better team, and individual stars (especially freshmen) cannot take over and win games by themselves in the Tournament. The media is doing a horrible job of teaching kids bad lessons by focusing so much on OJ Bayo and Michael Beasley, and other freshmen individuals, and ignoring the teams that are greater than the sum of their parts. The Big Ten this year is all about solid teams that just pound you and beat you. They are built for the Tournament. I picked Purdue to go down in the first round, and Indiana isn't going far either. But both Michigan State and Wisconsin are sleeper Final Four teams.

Kansas is looking very impressive in dismantling Portland State. I know that #16 seeds are supposed to be pushovers, but Portland State is a pretty good team. They are, by far, the best #16 seed. In my mind, they have the ability level of a #15 seed, and only got knocked down to a #16 because of all of the parity this season. The way they're getting killed by 30 points is a very impressive effort for the Jayhawks.

Coming up... three very even match-ups. I've already talked about Purdue, and obviously Marquette/Kentucky is an even match-up. The Kent State/UNLV game is also a toss up, although Kent State is actually slightly favored by Vegas. It could just be because #9 seeds are generally better (they have won 54% of the time in the modern era). Kent State had the better season, but the big red flag for me was the 16-0 home record vs. the 8-5 true road record. Can they handle the pressure without the comfort of a home crowd? We'll find out in less than an hour.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

West Bracket Breakdown

#3 Seed Or Lower Favorite: West Virginia. Honestly, I'm not very confident in any of the teams outside of the top two here. I think this is the weakest bracket, by far. Obviously West Virginia has a very tough route, getting Arizona in the first round and Duke in the second round. If I were you, I wouldn't pick them into the Final Four... or even in the Sweet Sixteen. But if I had to pick a route-neutral best team other than UCLA or Duke, I'm going with a vastly under-rated West Virginia team. My main argument, the Sagarin PREDICTOR: UCLA 3rd, Duke 4th, West Virginia 8th, UConn 24th, Drake 28th.

Most Likely Double-Digit Seed To Win A Game: Baylor. Read my reasons here.

Most Likely #6+ Seed To Get To Sweet Sixteen: West Virgina. For all the reasons listed above. Once again, however, I wouldn't stray from the top five seeds when picking a Sweet Sixteen out of this bracket.

Last Word: There are three interesting cases here, and I'll go in reverse seeding order. First, Drake, a team that is such a solid team in every facet of the game. And the way that they always seem to go on a quick 12-2 scoring spurt in every game reminds me of some of the great teams of the past. But as I've been going through the numbers this week, they keep popping up as a team that is over-rated (poor Sagarin PREDICTOR, mediocre road record, etc). Intuitively, they're under-seeded and should play well. The numbers disagree. So I'll learn here whether I should trust my intuition or not. Another interesting case is Duke, a team that I've talked about several times before. Can they keep that hot three-point shooting going? If the threes aren't falling, they won't even beat West Virgina. But if they're falling, they can beat anybody. Finally, what can UCLA do with what the Selection Committee gave them? In my mind, they are the most likely #1 seed to make the Final Four, because they simply have the easiest route. I see them as solid favorites over everybody else in their bracket.

Remember when making your bracket that you can't just pick the team you view as the best to win the Tournament. You have to be wary of picking teams to go far that might lose earlier. So even if you don't think UCLA is the best overall team in the country, you absolutely have to keep in consideration that they have the easiest route to the Final Four of any team in the bracket. If you pick them to win the title, you're unlikely to have your bracket busted in the first two weekends.

South Bracket Breakdown

#3 Seed Or Lower Favorite: Michigan State. This was a tough call for me, because Stanford is an excellent #3 seed as well. I've filled out one bracket so far, and I picked Michigan State over Stanford in the Elite Eight. In general, Texas has struggled away from home against elite teams all season long (losses to Michigan State, Texas A&M and Texas Tech). And Stanford will be an interesting team to watch, to see how teams deal with their dual-headed Lopez twin monster. Pac-10 teams have gotten used to dealing with them, but other teams have not. And Rick Barnes has never struck me as a genius of an in-game coach - he is a recruiter, first and foremost. But if there's one team in this bracket that can handle two huge stars (in more ways than one), it's Michigan State. They have about three guys who get major time who I consider "five fouls with a face," and they can bang with anybody. Meanwhile, the Spartans have proven year after year that they over-perform in March. Tom Izzo has gone to four Final Fours, despite not having the NBA talent that other teams have. And Drew Neitzel is turning into last season's Neitzel, just at the right time.

Most Likely Double-Digit Seed To Win A Game: None. I honestly don't see a single first round upset in this bracket. Even the #8/9 game, where I'd pick Oregon (remember, #9 seeds are favorites, since they win that game slightly more than 50% of the time).

Most Likely #6+ Seed To Get To Sweet Sixteen: Oregon. I wouldn't feel too confident about the Ducks taking out Memphis, but it's the highest possibility that I see here. Marquette is a very good #6 seed, but they are stuck playing an even better #3 seed in Stanford. To me, Memphis is a big question mark. They are very talented, but how will they play against top flight talent? Memphis was as good as anybody in the country back in November and December, which is why they put together such a great out-of-conference resume. But all of the other teams in BCS conferences spent the past two-to-three months sharpening their knives. They have played much tougher schedules, and learned how to pull out wins against better competition. I would not be shocked to see Memphis fall on its face the first time it faces adversity - especially with that atrocious free throw shooting.


Last Word: Clearly the most wide-open bracket. You've probably got the weakest #1 and the weakest #2 seeds (Texas might be better than Duke, but it's close). But then you throw in arguably the best #3 seed, a great #4 seed, and the best #5 seed. Heck, you've even got the best #6 seed. Don't feel bad picking any of the top six seeds to win this bracket.

Midwest Bracket Breakdown

#3 Seed Or Lower Favorite: Wisconsin. I guess it's not a huge surprise that Wisconsin doesn't get any mention on Sportscenter in their bracket breakdowns. If you only watch this team once or twice, you are probably convinced that they're overrated. But if you watch them play a lot, you become convinced that they're underrated. They just do all of the things right that a Tournament team needs to do right. They never turn over the ball, they ooze senior talent and leadership, they are able to force their deliberate style on anybody, and they know how to win close games. To me, the odds of the Badgers taking this bracket are just as good as the odds for Georgetown and Kansas. Georgetown is also a very good, experienced team that knows how to win Tournament games. Wisconsin probably should have earned a #2 seed, meaning that Georgetown would have been my "#3 seed or lower favorite." As for Kansas, they have looked great all year, but why is this year any different than all the last? To me, Bill Self has to prove that he can live up to his seed before I'm willing to pick him far in a bracket.

Most Likely Double-Digit Seed To Win A Game: Villanova. See here. Also, see below:

Most Likely #6+ Seed To Get To Sweet Sixteen: Villanova. I think Clemson is going to come in over-confident, looking ahead to Vanderbilt and Kansas. The fact is that Villanova is just as good as Clemson, and has more history winning Tournament games. They will have the better player on the floor and the better coach. And Clemson will likely be over-confident after their ACC Tournament run. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is by far the weakest #4 seed. A horrible Sagarin PREDICTOR, a horrible road record... stay away.


Last Word: When we talk about "easiest" or "hardest" brackets, what really matters is the route that a team has to take. Nobody plays the other 15 teams in their bracket - they play a maximum of four of them. So, the bottom of the Midwest bracket is tough, with both Georgetown and Wisconsin being potential Final Four teams. But the top half is terrible, with by far the worst #4/#5 seed pair. Even that #8/9 game isn't that impressive, although UNLV might have a chance to keep things close with Kansas for 20 or 30 minutes. To me, you can pretty much pencil Kansas into the Elite Eight, which is something that you can't say for any other team in the Tournament. But after that, they will be a toss-up against Georgetown or Wisconsin. And I would make them the underdog against UNC or Tennessee in the Final Four, should things get that far. Both Wisconsin and Georgetown would be a tough out for UNC as well, but most likely would be destined for a close loss.

East Bracket Breakdown

I'm going to do a brief breakdown of each of the four brackets, and the east bracket is the first:

#3 Seed Or Lower Favorite: Washington State. Since we all know that the #1 seeds are the favorites in each bracket, and also that some of them will lose, I'd rather try to name the most likely #3 seeds or lower to get through into the Final Four. To me, Washington State is actually better built than Louisville to make a deep Tournament run. They are just incredibly solid at the important skills for a Tournament run: tight defense, good guard play, and taking care of the ball. While they didn't make my list, Notre Dame is a team to be careful about regards to their undefeated record at home - they are not the same team on the road. I think Washington State gets its shot at UNC in the Sweet Sixteen. I'd pick UNC to win that game, of course, but Wazzu has a shot.

Most Likely Double-Digit Seed To Win A Game: Saint Joseph's. I did warn that this was the least likely 6/11 upset here, but there could be two or more 6/11 upsets when you look at the brackets this season. Also, my analysis before didn't go too deep into analyzing the teams. One red flag with regards to Oklahoma is a 5-6 true road record to go with a 14-3 true home record. If they struggle here, St. Joe's has finished the season on quite a run. They will be a tough out for sure.

Most Likely #6+ Seed To Get To Sweet Sixteen: Butler. I know, Tennessee would be a very tough team to beat. But ignore Butler's #7 seed for a second and look at their #10 ranking in the national polls... they suddenly seem like less of an underdog, don't they? Butler has always been a team that plays everybody tough and doesn't beat itself. They did have a bad habit this season of getting off to slow starts, although part of that was probably a bit of boredom playing so many bad teams. Assuming they play to their abilities, the pressure falls on a Tennessee team that has underperformed in the Tournament in recent years. Again, Tennessee is the favorite, but don't be shocked to see the upset here.


Last Word: Let's face it, UNC is probably getting out of this bracket. Let's face it, they are just the team best built for the Tournament, period. They have so much talent all over the place, even off the bench. They can play any and all styles of basketball. They have pulled out so many close wins. When ahead late, they never miss their free throws. It will be very hard to pick against them at any point in your bracket. But, outside the top two seeds in the East Regional, there could be a lot of chaos everywhere else. If UNC can make it into the Final Four, they become the favorites to win it all. I think they would be the favorite in the a head-to-head Final Four match-up with any other team in the nation.

Home/Away Records

Another issue to keep in mind during the Tournament is the fact that teams often play a lot better at home than on the road. All Tournament games, of course, are on neutral courts, although crowds often turn into hostile away-like crowds against the favorite. The point being, often teams earn high seeds on strong wins at home. If these same teams have really struggled on the road all season, you should be careful about picking them in the Tournament, because they are probably going to under-perform.

When you are looking for teams that have performed well on the road, you have to be careful to compare it to the home records. If teams play easy schedules then they're going to win a lot of their games, at home and on the road. For example, Davidson's 14-6 road/neutral record looks nice until you look at their 11-0 home record. Davidson, specifically, is actually a bad example because of their schedule. That neutral schedule is made up of those games against UNC, UCLA and the other powerhouses they played. They lost to all of the elite teams that they played, and beat all of the bad/mediocre teams (save one, back in November), regardless of home/away status.

But for the most part, we can separate teams that have vastly better home records than road/neutral records. And for the most part, major conference teams play similar talent on the home and road, so that record difference won't simply be caused by differing levels of talent. So if all you're considering is home vs. road/neutral records, who do you bet on (ignoring small conference teams with little-or-no chance at winning a game)?


Likely to over-achieve:
North Carolina
Washington State
Wisconsin
Butler
Saint Joseph's
Baylor

Likely to under-achieve
Vanderbilt
Pittsburgh
Michigan State
Arkansas
Miami
Kansas State
Oregon
Kentucky

Monday, March 17, 2008

Addressing The Arizona/Arizona State Issue

Every time I turn on a sports analyst, all anybody wants to talk is about what a travesty it is that Arizona State got in over Arizona, and I just want to address why I had Arizona in the bracket over Arizona State and why that was the correct decision:


1) So Arizona State swept the season series... so what?
It has been stated over and over again that head-to-head match-ups are not the be-all-and-end-all of selecting teams. Before I get to why, a quick example: Hofstra sweeping George Mason and getting denied from the Tournament in 2006. The fact that George Mason then made the Final Four certainly encouraged the Selection Committee. Now, why do we ignore the head-to-head match-up? The answer is that we don't ignore it, and it's very important. But if you say that all that matters is the head-to-head sweep, then are you saying that we ignore the OTHER 30 games in the season?

The fact is that any team can win on any given day. The best team doesn't always win. Recall last season when Virginia Tech swept North Carolina and then got swept by North Carolina State. By the logical transitive properties of those results, doesn't NC State need to be in the Tournament and UNC out? Of course not, anybody would have argued, UNC was clearly better over the entire season.

Exactly.

The fact is that a game is a game is a game, and Arizona State's wins over Arizona are just two games to look at. If the overall Arizona resume is still better, then it's still better, and we can write off the regular season sweep as an upset, and nothing else. When analysts continue with "Arizona State swept Arizona and had the better conference record" they're actually being a big disingenuous, since Arizona State went 9-9 and Arizona went 8-10. If we recall the regular season sweep, Arizona actually went 8-8 against the rest of the Pac-10, and Arizona State only went 7-9.


Okay, so is it all about the RPI then?
I sure hope not. I heard the head of the Selection Committee say last night that Arizona State would have been the lowest RPI selected in the Tournament history, and I hope that was a coincidence and nothing else. The RPI should be essentially ignored, because it's such a poor metric compared to the better computer rankings. Now, despite the fact that the RPI stinks, the fact that Arizona was 39th and Arizona State was 82nd has to mean something, right?

If we go to the better computer rankings, they rank the teams a bit closer. Sagarin has Arizona 28th and Arizona State 41st, and Pomeroy has them 22nd and 43rd respectively.

If we stick our toes into the numbers, we see Arizona 10-12 against the RPI Top 100, and Arizona State 7-10. Also, Arizona went 7-7 in true road games while Arizona State was only 4-6.

If we go a little bit deeper, we just see that Arizona performed better against the most important subset of teams, the teams around the 30th-90th of the rankings. When you are playing Top 25 teams, you're never going to win too many. Arizona has three wins over the RPI Top 25 (Washington State twice, and UNLV), and Arizona State has two (Xavier and Stanford). But when you look at that middle gap of teams, you just see that Arizona really took care of business there, especially at home. A big game that stood out to me for Arizona State was losing at home to a mediocre California team on February 16th. Look at Arizona's regular season Pac-10 losses (ignoring the Arizona State sweep): UCLA twice, USC, Oregon twice, Stanford twice, at Washington. So, one mediocre loss, although it's always hard to beat Washington on their home court. As for Arizona State's regular season Pac-10 losses: UCLA twice, Stanford, USC, Cal, Washington, at Oregon, Washington State twice. So Arizona State has that win over Stanford and USC, and Arizona has a win over USC as well, and a sweep of Washington State. That's kind of a wash. But Arizona State's "bad" losses at home to Cal and Washington are much worse than Arizona's lone "bad" loss on the road at Washington.

Now we have to add in the fact that Arizona State swept Arizona, while Arizona got swept by Arizona State, and we give the slight edge in conference to Arizona State. But it's only slight.

If we head to the out-of-conference, Arizona has that close loss to the always-tricky Virginia. They then had close losses to Kansas and Memphis, so nothing embarrassing there. After that, they won every other game, including wins over UNLV, Texas A&M, San Diego State and Cal State Fullerton. Arizona State did have that win over Xavier, but what is less often mentioned is how atrocious the rest of that out-of-conference resume is. They lost to mediocre Illinois and Nebraska teams, and their best win (other than Xavier) was over LSU. That means they had all of ONE out-of-conference win over the RPI Top 175. Arizona had six of those.

You want the exact numbers? Arizona had an out-of-conference strength of schedule of 5th, and an out-of-conference RPI of 5th. Arizona State had an out-of-conference strength of schedule of 296th, and an out-of-conference RPI of 110th.


That massive out-of-conference disparity is what gave the Arizona the significantly better computer numbers. Arizona State should have put together a harder out-of-conference schedule if they wanted to earn a Tournament bid. Like Florida, they put together a patsy first two months in order to ease in the youngsters. And like Florida, they got snake-bit by that very schedule.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Discussing "Clutch" vs. "Overrated"

One issue that I'm always juggling with and discussing on this website is the issue of teams that win a lot of close games. And I think that it's so important with respect to picking teams for brackets that I want to devote a long post to it:


An Analogy

Let's start the issue by dipping our toes into the shallow end of the pool, by discussing an analogy, the Pythagorean Expectation from Major League Baseball. It is a way of estimating a team's win-loss record by knowing just how many runs they've scored and given up. For the most part, every team in baseball finishes within five games of their "expected" value. The teams that finish above that value tend to be "clutch" teams. In baseball, the most likely teams to be "clutch" are those with great closers, so in recent years the most common team to finish with a better record than expected has been the Yankees.

What you see in baseball is that several teams get out of whack with their "expected" value, but they always return towards that value as the year goes on. It's not that teams that experience good luck in the early part of a season are destined to have bad luck in the second half, it's simply that random variables always tend to progress towards the mean over any given time. That's not to say that over an infinitely long season every single team would finish exactly at their expected value. It's simply that teams will finish close to that expected value, because as the sample size increases, the luck evens out.


What about basketball?

So let's go to basketball, where we all know that luck is often involved. That key shot that rims in or rims out? That debatable foul call? There are all sorts of games that are determined by luck. But at the same time, certain teams are more clutch than other teams. Typically teams that have strong senior leadership, and strong coaching. Also, teams that play a lot of close games tend to become better at close game situations over time, because the most important thing is experience. A final complication, of course, is that teams don't play the same schedules. So we can't rank teams purely on points scored/against like we do in baseball.

So what ranking do you suggest?

There are two good ones to look at: the Sagarin rankings and the Pomeroy rankings. The Pomeroy rankings try to break teams down by different efficiencies, and by taking out "luck", although I'm not entirely sure about how that is calculated. Overall, Pomeroy gives you a pretty good ranking system. So if you want to know which team is better in a given match up and don't want to just look at the seedings, check Pomeroy.

But the ranking that I'd rather discuss is Sagarin, because he splits teams by the ELO_CHESS and the PREDICTOR rankings. The former is a pure win/loss formula (similar to the RPI... only more complex and better), and the latter is heavily influenced by the scores of the games. If a team has a much better ELO_CHESS than PREDICTOR than they were either "clutch," "lucky," or some combination of the two. The ELO_CHESS more-or-less ranks teams like what you see in the bracket, while the PREDICTOR can often be pretty out of whack with the seedings.


So what do we make of a team with out-of-whack rankings?

Some people might interpret a team with a much better ELO_CHESS than PREDICTOR as a team you should pick in the Tournament because it's clutch. But I'd argue that this clutch-ness has already been built into their seed, which is based on games won & loss and not by the margin of those victories (for the most part). They've been so clutch so far, how can they be more clutch than they've already been? And more likely, like I said, teams will regress to the mean. So my interpretation is that the teams with inflated ELO_CHESS are over-rated, and these are teams you should be picking against.


So if you're right, who should I be betting on or against?

Here's an informal list of teams with very out-of-whack Sagarin rankings, and what to do if you agree with my analysis and don't take any other factors into account (factors that I'll get into later this week, such as home/road records). There are obviously other teams with more moderately out-of-whack rankings, which you can look through yourself. I'm just listing the most egregious examples among Tournament teams:

Likely to Over-Achieve:
Marquette
West Virginia
Kansas State

Likely to Under-Achieve:
Drake
Vanderbilt
Kent State

Talking 5/12 And 6/11 Games

I want to briefly link back to my 6/11 game analysis from 2007, and my 5/12 game analysis from 2006. To save you some reading, I'll go through the conclusions and how they apply to this year's games:


#5 vs. #12 games:

The most likely #5 seeds to get upset are the mid-major and small conference teams. The only choice this year is Drake, although I'm a bit loathe to call the Missouri Valley a mid-major conference. Even though they are, I don't think that Valley fans, players and coaches view themselves that way. And since this is all about player psychology, I wouldn't necessarily say that this analysis encourages you to pick Drake for a first round exit (especially since I think Drake was under-ranked as a #5 seed - they should have been a #3 or #4).

The most likely #12 seeds to pull upsets are major conference teams. Small conference teams are actually more likely to pull upsets than mid-majors, so that points to George Mason (surprise, surprise) as a good potential team to pull a first round upset. This also points to Villanova as a potential upset-puller.


So, who SHOULD you pick for an upset, if you have to choose one? It's between George Mason/Notre Dame and Villanova/Clemson. To me, nobody is going to fool around with George Mason again, and I think Clemson might come in a bit over-confident after making the ACC Championship Game. So, I'd say Nova over Clemson. But a quick caveat is that you have to be careful about how the upsets that you pick will resonate in the future rounds. For reasons I'll get to later, you've almost got to pick Vandy to go out before the Sweet 16. So if you go with Nova then you're probably committing to putting a #12 seed through to the third round... are you prepared to do that? It probably depends on your bracket scoring system.


Who SHOULDN'T you pick for an upset? Temple over Michigan State. Drew Neitzel is finding his stride right now, and Michigan State is just such a tough team to play in the Tournament in general. Tom Izzo teams always over-achieve in the Tournament, and opponents (especially mid-major opponents) really struggle with their size. In my mind, Michigan State is a sleeper Final Four team (although I'll get to that in a later post).


#6 vs. #11 games:

The first lesson here is not to get too over-eager, because #11 seeds actually win their first round game less often than #12 seeds. They don't have as much of a psychological advantage. In the first round, #6 seeds are much more likely to win if they come from major conferences, and the same holds for #11 seeds. Also, don't bet on #11 seeds to make the Sweet Sixteen, because it's very rare. But meanwhile, do bet on #6 seeds to win another game Over the past 16 years, 47 #6 teams made the second round, and they went 27-20 in their second round game. So, on average we should expect two #6 seeds to make the Sweet Sixteen - a pretty remarkable statistic.


So, who SHOULD you pick for a first round upset?
Kentucky, Baylor and Kansas State are all major conference teams. Baylor will be playing with a chip on its shoulder because it will be called the last team in by a lot of people (always bet on the team that is universally decried as a team that should have missed the Tournament). But Kansas State will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, too, based on the fact that they were given such a lousy seed compared to what they probably would have expected. To pick which of those teams to select, the tie-breaker has to be their first round opponent, which I'll get to in a moment.


Who SHOULDN'T you pick for a first round upset?
They're all major conference teams, so there's nothing that can be concluded there. But since only one of them gets a mid-major or small conference opponent (Oklahoma), that's who I've got to go with here.


If I'm going to choose between Kansas State/USC and Baylor/Purdue, I think I'm going with the latter match-up. Purdue is a very, very young team, and they have struggled in tense, high pressure situations. They have played their best ball when nobody has expected them to win (like when they shocked Wisconsin at the Kohl Center). They have struggled when they've been expected to win (like against Illinois, in the Big Ten Tournament), so the most likely upset for me is Baylor over Purdue.

Very Quick Recap

I don't have time for much analysis now, but... man, I had the first 64 teams correct. The last team to get in was Baylor, which was the last team that I took out personally. I think Illinois State has a grievance, losing out to Baylor.

I disagree on Wisconsin dropping to a #3 seed, also on Drake & Butler getting a lot of disrespect. I think Oklahoma was over-ranked, and Kansas State was under-ranked.

Much deeper analysis to come in the next few days.

FINAL BP65

Well, there goes my theory on Georgia... On a side note, those final three Pac-10 teams are hard to sort out, aren't they? My final decision was that the Selection Committee is going to not want to give three of the final 8-to-10 spots to Pac-10 teams, which puts one of those teams out.

I had originally thought that the last team out from the Pac-10 would be Arizona, because Arizona State went 3-1 against the other two. But head-to-head just doesn't matter that much in these final decisions, and the fact that Arizona State has ended horribly and has more "bad" losses than Arizona is the clincher for me.

So who else could get in, if I'm wrong? I think VCU would be in if they had just one decent win... but they don't. UMass could get in on the back of that huge winning streak to end the regular season, but I don't think the A-10 gets four teams in. I was originally scared of Ohio State because of that 2-8 RPI Top 50 record, but you can't ignore when those two wins came. Also if you stretch out to the RPI Top 100, they're actually 7-11, compared to 7-10 for Arizona State. The road/neutral records are essentially the same, and the overall resumes otherwise are really close. So in that head-to-head, you go with the stronger finish and that's obviously the Buckeyes.

Finally, you have Baylor, and team that doesn't have any really bad wins, but doesn't have much to brag about either. That poor Big 12 Tournament finish was a killer.

We'll see if I was right...here we go:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. Tennessee
2. Duke
2. Texas
2. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)

3. Georgetown
3. Louisville
3. Stanford
3. DRAKE (MVC)

4. Xavier
4. UConn
4. Notre Dame
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
5. Indiana
5. Marquette
5. Washington State

6. Vanderbilt
6. Michigan State
6. Clemson
6. Gonzaga

7. UNLV (MWC)
7. West Virginia
7. Purdue
7. USC

8. BYU
8. Oklahoma
8. Kansas State
8. Arkansas

9. Mississippi State
9. KENT STATE (MAC)
9. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Kentucky

10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Miami (Fl)
10. Texas A&M
10. Oregon

11. Saint Mary's
11. Saint Joseph's
11. GEORGIA (SEC)
11. South Alabama

12. Illinois State
12. Arizona
12. Villanova
12. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

13. SAN DIEGO (WCC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. BOISE STATE (WAC)

14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams
Florida State, Virginia Tech, UMass, Ohio State, Baylor, VCU, Arizona State, Florida

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid, but probably shouldn't:
Maryland, Dayton, Syracuse, Creighton, New Mexico, Mississippi

Little Delay

I've got to delay this final bracket for a bit to determine the winner of this SEC game. Have to figure that Wisconsin is going to take the Big Ten Tournament title to take the #2 seed from Georgetown. If I had to pick, I'd say that Arkansas is going to win the SEC title, but I've got to wait a little bit longer. The reason I'm picking Arkansas is because I think that the double-header from yesterday is going to hold back Georgia down the stretch. From anybody who has played sports you know that you can do a double-workout in one day on the back of adrenaline. When you feel it is the next day, and I guarantee you that Georgia is feeling that double-header now.

Anyway, give me another 20 minutes or so and then the final bracket will be up.

Wrapping up Saturday

Temple 69, Saint Joseph's 64
An amazing coaching job by ex-Penn coach Fran Dunphy, as Temple finishes the season strong and earns a Tournament bid in what was almost surely a must-win game for them. With this win, they move from the NIT into something like a #9-11 seed. Saint Joseph's meanwhile, is going to have to hope that those two late-season wins over Xavier put them into the Tournament. The overall resume is still a bit dicey: RPI of 41st, Sagarin of 51st, 8-8 against the RPI Top 100, but four losses against teams outside the RPI Top 130. The 10-6 Atlantic Ten record is good enough, and they do have the two wins over Xavier and the sweep of UMass. All in all, they're clearly one of the true bubble teams at the moment. They're going to have to sweat out the next eight hours or so. Meanwhile, this result actually might be the blow that knocks out another A-10 team, UMass. I've gone through all of the holes on their resume before, and they were already in a precarious state before this game. Now they find themselves almost clearly fourth in the A-10 pecking order, and is the Selection Committee really going to take four from that conference? I know that they always keep the party line that they don't care about things like how many teams get out of a conference, but there's no way that it doesn't have at least a subconscious effect on the committee members. The Minutemen are in big trouble now.

Arkansas 92, #4 Tennessee 91
A heck of a run for a Razorbacks team that pulled off two nice upsets in order to earn the right to be the favorites in the SEC Championship Game. If the Razorbacks weren't a lock for the Tournament before this game, they obviously are now. Not only that, but a win of the SEC Tournament will shoot them up the Selection Committee's S-curve. I wouldn't be shocked to see them all the way in the #6-7 seeding range. As for Tennessee, this loss probably cripples their #1 seed hopes. I think that the winner of Kansas/Texas will probably get than final #1 seed. But falling all the way back to a #2 seed isn't the end of the world. They are a very good team in all aspects of the game, and they're going to be a very tough out for anybody.

Pittsburgh 74, #9 Georgetown 65
Pitt continues its annual domination of the Big East Tournament, tearing through powerhouses Louisville, Marquette and now G-town to take the crown. When they entered the Big East Tournament, they were looking at a seed in the high-single digits, something like a #6-9 seed. But now, they've shot way up the chart. The Selection Committee loves to reward teams that take their conference tournaments. A recent example of this was Iowa shooting all the way up to a #3 seed after taking the Big Ten Tournament in 2006. So, it's not out of the question for Pitt to slide up that high as well, although they're probably in for something more in the range of a #5 seed. Still, a very nice run for a team that has now earned itself a much easier route to the Sweet Sixteen.

Starting To Get To Yesterday

Sorry about the complete lack of posting yesterday. I was busy, and had a chance to watch some of the games but never had a chance to post. I'll spend most of this morning/early afternoon catching up on yesterday's games while getting to today's final set of games as well. So, let's start sooner rather than later:

Georgia 60, Kentucky 56
The first of Georgia's absolutely improbable two wins in one day. Georgia, obviously, has no chance of an at-large berth. Even with these two wins, they're still below .500 at 15-16 overall. The question here is Kentucky, a team that is not the slam dunk at-large team that others think that they are. They'll still probably get into the Tournament, but it's not wholly out of the question that Kentucky won't get in. If we take out the 12-4 conference record for a second, what else do we see on the resume? An RPI of 60, a Sagarin of 59th, a 5-10 record against the RPI Top 10, and a 4-7 record in road/neutral games. They were also 0-6 against the RPI Top 100 on the road - so if they do sneak into the Tournament, bet on them for an early exit. I do suppose the Selection Committee will be a bit wowed by that 12-4 conference record, and the 9-3 record in their final twelve games. But still, Kentucky is not a "lock", and probably should root for teams like Georgia to lose today.

#1 North Carolina 68, Virginia Tech 66
A nice comeback victory for the Tar Heels, who have proven again and again that they're extremely tough to beat in close games. There's something to be said for teams that always seem to survive and win close battles. When it comes to top teams in the country, UNC, UCLA, Georgetown and Wisconsin all strike me as teams that should be considered deep Tournament threats because of that simple characteristic. A problem with Memphis playing in such an awful conference is that they have no experience in close games, other than against UAB and Tennessee. Anyway, as UNC gets closer to wrapping up a #1 seed, the real question from this game is whether Virginia Tech can make the Tournament. And they'll be discussed by the Selection Committee today, but it's just very unlikely that they'll get in. The 19-13 overall, and 9-7 ACC records were good enough for consideration, but the schedule was fairly weak, and the Hokies just could not find a way to beat good teams. In all, they went 1-7 against the RPI Top 50, and 4-8 overall on the road. And while they couldn't beat the good teams, they also struggled with the mediocre wons, with four losses to teams with an RPI of 100 or higher. There's just no part of this resume that seems like a Tournament team, and Tech is almost certainly an NIT team.

#5 Kansas 77, Texas A&M
A bit of an abrupt end to Texas A&M's Big 12 Tournament run, but I'm pretty sure that they did enough damage to assure an at-large bid. The Sagarin Rating is 26th, a place where teams never miss the Tournament from. All of their stats are solid: 5-7 against the RPI Top 50, 8-6 in road/neutral games, 6-6 in their last twelve, road wins over Baylor and Kansas State, and a home win over Texas. It's not overwhelming, but it's extremely hard to see them missing the Tournament now. As for Kansas, this win came within a couple of hours of the defeats of Duke and Tennessee, all results that put them in great position to go for a #1 seed. Figuring that UNC, Memphis and UCLA are all guaranteed #1 seeds (assuming Carolina takes care of business today), that leaves one spot open. Duke is out of contention for a #1 now, which puts it between the winner of Kansas/Texas and Tennessee. To me, the winner of Texas/Kansas will probably get that #1 seed, although I'll have to go through the numbers more this afternoon to be sure.

#2 UCLA 67, #11 Stanford 64

How many close wins has UCLA pulled out in the past two weeks? All of this is definitely great training for the Tournament, where you can't avoid close games. Like I said earlier, you have to consider UCLA a great candidate for a big run in the Tournament because they've been toughened by pulling out all of these close games. So many teams panic on the final possession of a game, but the Bruins are one of the few teams that won't. As for Stanford, this ruins any delusions that they had of a #2 seed, although those chances weren't that great anyway. With this loss they're pretty much locked into a #3 seed. It will interesting to see how the Lopez brothers perform in the Tournament, where they get to ply their trade against teams that haven't faced them before. The Pac-10 has a true round-robin, so all of Stanford's opponents had already seen them before these late season battles. The two brothers are an absolute force on the inside (and I think Brook Lopez should be getting more National Player of the Year attention than he's getting), and opponents that haven't seen it in person before are probably in for a big shock.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

D-1 BP65

Remember, the next (and last) BP65 for this season will be out on Selection Sunday. I expect to have it up right around 5pm eastern time, or about a full hour before the Selection Show.

As for this edition, I spent awhile going through all of the teams again, one-by-one. I crunched a lot of numbers and moved a bunch of teams around. So, there is a lot of movement from the last bracket, but most of it is due to a re-callibration, rather than any movement due to performances. A couple things I realized: Ohio State is in a lot more trouble than I previously thought. When you compare their performances against the RPI Top 50 or Top 75, they just aren't even close to the three Pac-10 bubble teams, or many of the other bubble teams. Also, I think VCU is still stuck on the outside. The fact that their resume looks so much like the '06 Utah State team perhaps says that this year's bubble is actually unseasonably strong, which goes against the conventional wisdom of college basketball analysts. Finally, both UMass and Illinois State are in much more precarious states than I previously thought. Both of those teams are really going to have to sweat out the final two days of games.

Anyway, without further ado:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. TENNESSEE (SEC)

2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas

3. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)
3. Louisville
3. Stanford
3. DRAKE (MVC)

4. Xavier
4. UConn
4. Notre Dame
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. Indiana
5. Marquette
5. Washington State
5. Vanderbilt

6. Michigan State
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Clemson
6. Gonzaga

7. Pittsburgh
7. West Virginia
7. Purdue
7. USC

8. Mississippi State
8. Oklahoma
8. Kansas State
8. KENT STATE (MAC)

9. UNLV
9. SAINT JOSEPH'S (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Kentucky
9. Baylor

10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Miami (Fl)
10. Texas A&M
10. Saint Mary's

11. Arizona State
11. South Alabama
11. Arizona
11. Arkansas

12. Oregon
12. Illinois State
12. UMass
12. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

13. SAN DIEGO (WCC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. NORTHWESTERN STATE (SOUTHLAND)
16. MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Temple, Ohio State, VCU

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Florida State, Dayton, Villanova, New Mexico, Florida

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Maryland, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Wake Forest, Charlotte, Syracuse, UAB, Houston, Creighton, Southern Illinois

Friday, March 14, 2008

Friday Evening Update

Arkansas 81, #17 Vanderbilt 75
Another good win by Arkansas over Vanderbilt, a team that has really struggled away from home all season. When you are looking for teams to pick to get upset in the NCAA Tournament, you look for two types of teams - those with a poor Sagarin PREDICTOR relative to their ELO_CHESS (a team not as good as its record), and those with poor road/neutral records (since you tend to have the crowd against you when you're a favorite in the Tournament). Vanderbilt fits both of these definitions, and I'm ready to pick them for an early exit in the bracket. As for Arkansas... if they weren't in the Tournament this morning, they're in it now. The RPI and Sagarin numbers are in the 30s, and they now feature wins over Mississippi State, Florida, VCU and Baylor to go with a pair of wins over Vandy. Throw in the 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100, and Arkansas has got to be in the Tournament now.

Saint Joseph's 61, Xavier 53
A big win for a suddenly-scorching St. Joe's team. Xavier ends the season with two losses to St. Joe's in their final four games, which is a bit of a dud. But they're still in the #4-5 seed range, so they should still be well positioned to make a Sweet Sixteen run. As for as bubble implications, however, St. Joe's has clearly made a statement here in the A-10 Tournament. They will probably be favored in tomorrow's championship game, but they're actually in decent position for an at-large bid regardless. The schedule hasn't been great, but 21-11 is a good enough record. They have the two wins over Xavier, as well as a season sweep of UMass, and that demolition of Villanova. They do have losses to Holy Cross, St. Louis and LaSalle, but they've done enough to get the RPI up to 41st. This win will also move the Sagarin rating inside the Top 50, which is where you need it to be to have a good shot at an at-large. They are now 5-4 against the RPI Top 50, and 13-6 in road/neutral games. Those "bad" losses are pretty bad, but St. Joe's has managed to tip-toe past the carcasses of teams like Maryland and Syracuse into a very good place in the bubble rankings. At this point they are a likely Tournament team, although I'm sure Phil Martelli would like to make it academic with a win tomorrow.

Friday Afternoon Update

#1 North Carolina 82, Florida State 70
The Tar Heels move closer to wrapping up a #1 seed, but this game was more about Florida State. This Florida State team feels a lot like their last few seasons - good players, great athletes, but always coming up a little bit short. And this team is almost definitely coming up short of the NCAA Tournament now. They finish 19-14 and 7-9 in the ACC, and both of the computer numbers are in the high-50s. Throw in an 8-12 record against the RPI Top 100, a 6-10 road/neutral record and only a 6-6 finish in their final twelve games. I won't rule it out that they could steal a Tournament bid, but I'd be very surprised. In my mind, they're out.

Virginia Tech 63, Miami (Fl) 49
A nice win by Virginia Tech to keep their Tournament hopes alive. Tech is up to 19-12, along with a solid 9-7 ACC record. The computer numbers are still in the 50s, but they now collect their first RPI Top 50 win. Overall they are 6-9 against the RPI Top 100, and have finished well with eight wins in their past twelve games. They're not in the Tournament yet, but they've got a shot if they can win one more ACC Tournament game. As for Miami, they're obviously thankful for all of the bubble chaos. They finish 22-10, with an 8-8 ACC record, an RPI of 30th and a Sagarin in the high-30s. They finish 9-8 against the RPI Top 100 (including wins against Duke and at Mississippi State), and 9-7 in road/neutral games. Ignoring the computer numbers, the rest of those numbers are decent-but-not-great. But those gaudy computer numbers are proof of the parity this season, which really benefits Miami's resume. To me, they're still likely to get into the Tournament. But they're not a lock, and they'll have to stress for another 48 hours or so.

#19 Michigan State 67, Ohio State 60

A strong performance for Ohio State, but not quite enough. You have to wonder if they were done in by that brief 45-second stretch or so where their two big guys picked up four fouls and a technical, in a very poor performance by the referees. The Buckeyes finish 19-13, including 10-8 in the Big Ten. They obviously ended the regular season with those two Top 25 wins, over Purdue and Sparty, but still end up only 6-10 against the RPI Top 100. Throw in a 5-10 road/neutral record and things aren't looking so hot. But Ohio State does benefit from the same parity that is helping teams like Miami and Texas A&M. Their RPI will end up in the high-40s, and the Sagarin will be in the low-40s, which puts them firmly in the bubble picture. They also finished 5-7 in their final twelve games, which isn't all too bad when you consider the schedule. The losses at Iowa and Michigan and the real blemishes, but Iowa was tough at home all year, and it's never too bad to lose at your arch-rivals. Ohio State will be an interesting case that we'll have to revisit as Selection Sunday gets closer.

Wrapping Up The Rest Of Thursday Night

Boston College 71, Maryland 68
A devastating loss for a young, rebuilding Maryland team. The season highlight for the Terps was obviously that win at Chapel Hill, but there's really nothing else to brag about. It was their only win against a team inside the RPI Top 60, and overall they finished 7-10 against the RPI Top 100. The RPI has fallen out to 82nd with a Sagarin of 72nd. I don't think any team has ever had those types of numbers and still made the Tournament. In my mind, Maryland can pack their bags for the NIT, as there's just no scenario for them to make the Tournament now.

Texas A&M 60, Iowa State 47
With so many bubble teams losing early in Championship Week, you have to give the Aggies credit for taking care of business against an inferior Iowa State team. This win keeps them in the bracket for the time being, with a solid 23-9 record. They were only 8-8 against the Big 12, but they had no losses all season against a team with an RPI worse than 95. They went a solid 7-5 in road/neutral games and finished 7-5 in their final twelve games (that stretch included wins over Texas, Oklahoma and at Baylor). The RPI is 44th, but the Sagarin is up to 27th. I hesitate to call Texas A&M a "lock" for the Tournament, but it's hard to see them missing out even if they lose tonight to Kansas State. They'll be in tonight's BP65 for sure.

Georgia 97, Mississippi 95, OT
Possibly the most exciting finish of any game yesterday. Hopes were high in January in Mississippi, after this team started out 15-1, with a two-point loss at Tennessee the only blemish. But now, they're as good as done with regard to Tournament hopes. They were in trouble after the 7-9 record in the SEC, and they needed a strong performance in the SEC Tournament. The RPI is 49th, and the Sagarin is 47th, which puts the Rebels in the at-large discussion. But we have to remember that most of those good numbers come from the early part of the season. They closed with a 5-7 record in their last twelve games, and that stretch included five losses against teams with an RPI outside the Top 100. That's not the finish of an at-large team. The overall resume isn't that bad, but Ole Miss is almost definitely out of the Tournament.

#11 Stanford 75, Arizona 64
Arizona could have put themselves in a good place with this win, but now they're in a lot of trouble. It's obviously unclear how much this conflict between Kevin O'Neill and Lute Olsen has divided this team, but they've ended on a very bad note. I know that they have an RPI of 40th, but Arizona always has an inflated RPI due to their tough schedules. Remember that last year they finished with an RPI of 14th and yet slipped all the way to an eight seed. Despite the 19-14 overall record (and 8-10 in the Pac-10), the rest of the numbers are still decent. The Sagarin is a solid 29th, and they went 10-12 against teams in the RPI Top 100. They also finished 7-7 in true road games, and feature a sweep over Washington State. A big problem is that 4-8 record over their final twelve games, which could drop them to seventh in the overall Pac-10 pecking order. Obviously, Arizona will be in the mix on Selection Sunday, but they're going to have to sweat out the weekend.

Utah 82, New Mexico 80, OT

A very tough loss for New Mexico in what was a great game between two good teams. The Lobos are really going to have to wonder if they did enough to get into the Tournament in their first season under ex-Iowa coach Steve Alford. The resume is solid all the way around, but there is nothing that stands out. They went 24-8, but against a horrendous schedule. They did knock off UNLV, but that represents their only RPI Top 50 win. Overall they were a decent 7-6 against the RPI Top 100, but that seems less impressive when you break it down and realize that most of those wins came against the tail end of that sample set. What do I mean by that? Well, New Mexico went 4-1 against teams with an RPI between 91 and 96, making them 3-5 against the RPI Top 90. When you break it down like that, you see that New Mexico is in a lot of trouble. I'd probably put in mid-majors South Alabama and VCU before I'd put New Mexico in, and that probably dooms the Lobos. Still, a good overall start to Steve Alford's tenure at New Mexico, and they should be a dangerous NIT team.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Can Anybody Step Up?

It's been a remarkably bad day for bubble teams all over the country. Nobody can win a game. The big winners today are actually teams like VCU, New Mexico and St. Joseph's. Suddenly these teams that finished so well are looking better than many of these BCS conference teams that are tripping all over themselves and finishing on a slew of losses. A few examples:

Alabama 80, Florida 69
I don't think Billy Donovan drew up a 30-5 deficit in his game plan. The thing is that Donovan is a very intense and emotional coach, so there's no way that he didn't have his team up for the game. Maybe they were just out too late last night partying. Florida actually made a great second half run to make this a close game briefly, but they ran out of steam. It's just so hard to come back from a large deficit. This loss doesn't absolutely knock the Gators out of the Tournament, but the outlook is definitely bleak. They are 21-11, but against an atrocious schedule. The RPI is in the 70s, and the Sagarin Rating will fall into the 50s with this loss. The big stat for me: 3-10 against the RPI Top 100. Championship Week has been all about bubble teams losing games left and right, so I suppose it's possible for everybody relevant to lose their next game and for Florida to sneak into the Tournament's back door. But in my mind, they're basically out. Even the most optimistic Florida fan probably recognizes that they're going to the NIT.

Temple 84, LaSalle 75
With all of the chaos on the bubble, does that open up things for a team like Temple? Nobody thought they were in the at-large race after that 7-7 non-conference record, but look where they are now. They went 11-5 in a strong Atlantic Ten, and feature wins over Xavier, Rhode Island, UMass, St. Joe's and Ohio. The RPI is up to 61st, and the Sagarin Rating will be somewhere around 70th when tomorrow morning's numbers come out. They are a decent 6-8 against the RPI Top 100, and 7-5 in true road games. They're not in the Tournament yet, but they've got to be in the discussion with all of the losses to teams like Florida. If they can get by Charlotte tomorrow and lose a close game in the A-10 Tournament Finals, don't you have to give Temple a serious look for an at-large bid?

Charlotte 69, UMass 65

Speaking of Charlotte, they threw another monkey-wrench in the Atlantic Ten Tournament. Charlotte continues to be alive for a long shot at-large bid, although they need to beat Temple tomorrow to even be in the discussion. The computer numbers are still pretty bad, but we can see how much they move up if they can get another win. Should a team make the Tournament that got swept by Richmond and also lost to the likes of Hofstra and Monmouth? Probably not, but we'll keep them in the discussion, and I'll come back to this issue if they beat Temple tomorrow. The more interesting case here is UMass, which really could have used a win here. This loss drops them to 21-10, following a 10-6 season in the A-10. They have wins over Syracuse, Houston and most of the leading Atlantic Ten teams, but they probably will end up with none over Tournament teams. The RPI slips into the mid-40s with this loss, which is close to danger territory. What's more dangerous is the Sagarin rating in the 50s, an area that never produces more than one or two at-large teams. They are 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, which is actually one of the worst records among the A-10 bubble teams. They are a solid 9-6 in road/neutral games, and did manage to win six straight before this final loss (8-4 over their final twelve). They'll be an interesting case on Selection Sunday, for sure. The more losses by teams like Florida, Baylor and Syracuse, the better things look for the Minutemen.

Washington State 75, Oregon 70

A very nice comeback for Oregon, but just not quite enough. I can go through the stats, but to me Oregon will come down to what Jay Bilas calls the "eye test." Oregon looks like a Tournament team when you watch them, but they just haven't been able to put together the overall resume. Sagarin has them in the high-30s, which is a nice place to be, and the RPI isn't all too bad. The question becomes, how do you rank Oregon, Arizona and Arizona State. Arizona went 8-10 in the Pac-10, while the other two went 9-9. Oregon does have the best head-to-head record, going 3-1 against those four teams. The Ducks only went 7-11 against the RPI Top 100, but if you go through the wins one by one it's really not that bad. Arizona, of course, is still playing in the Pac-10 Tournament. But if they go down tonight to Stanford, I think Oregon becomes the 5th team in the Pac-10 pecking order. And if they are, then they're probably in the Tournament. I know that the Selection Committee claims not to care how many teams make the Tournament out of each conference, but I can't imagine that it's not at least a subconscious factor. The Pac-10 will not get only four teams.

Early Evening Update

Miami (Fl) 63, North Carolina State 50
A solid taking care of business game for the Canes. A loss in this one wouldn't have necessarily knocked them out of the Tournament, but they would've had to really sweat out the rest of the weekend. This win, as well, does not seal their fate. They could still miss the Tournament if they lose their next game and the bubble shrinks immensely. But I don't see that happening, and Miami is probably getting into the Tournament. They're up to 22-9, with an RPI tucked just inside the Top 30. This victory also moves them above .500, to 9-8, against the RPI Top 100. There are some gaps in the resume (8-8 in the ACC, only 7-5 in their final twelve games), but everybody's resume has some holes once you get out around the #9-12 seeds. Miami should be in.

Saint Joseph's 61, Richmond 47
St. Joe's is really finishing the season strong, on the back of an energized and suffocating defense. They held a good Richmond team to 37% shooting from the field, and have clinched a place among those teams that will be seriously considered on Selection Sunday. They also remain the Atlantic Ten's best shot (by far) to earn a third Tournament bid. This win brings them to 20 on the season, and puts both the RPI and the Sagarin Rating in the low-50s. The 11-7 record in the Atlantic Ten is decent, as is their 63rd ranked out-of-conference RPI. The sweep of UMass is very nice, as is the win over Xavier. Overall, they jump up to 8-7 against the RPI Top 100, although that's obviously got an asterisk as most of those wins were over the A-10. The Hawks get Xavier in the A-10 Semifinals, at 6:30 PM ET, and they can really build up the resume with a win there. A win over Xavier and they certainly won't lock up an at-large bid, but they'll put themselves in a good position. It will probably put them in the bracket, with less than 24 hours remaining to fall back out of it. A loss to Xavier will put St. Joe's in a tough position. They'll have a solid resume, but they'll probably need a bit of help in other conferences in order to sneak into the Tournament.

USC 59. Arizona State 55
An absolutely heartbreaking loss for Herb Sendek's boys. Jeff Pendergraph tied up the game for State with 16.9 seconds to go, until they called him for an insane over-the-back call. Now, it might have been the correct call, but it was definitely border-line. And that makes it the wrong call, because referees should not be determining a game like that. It's like that Nova loss to Georgetown a couple weeks ago - even if the ref is right, he's wrong. You have to let the kids play. Especially when one team has its season on the line. Arizona State is in a very precarious spot now, falling to 19-12 overall. They just don't really have any part of the resume that they can brag about: 9-9 in the Pac-10, 7-10 against the RPI Top 100, 6-8 in road/neutral games. The RPI has plummeted into the 70s, and the Sagarin Rating will be around 50th when tomorrow's numbers come out. I won't say that Arizona State is definitely out of the Tournament at this point in time, but it's a real long shot. But it's hard to see a scenario where they'd get in.

Colorado 91, Baylor 84, 2OT
It was a fitting season finale for Baylor, a team that has been in more roller-coaster games than any other team in the nation. The Bears were definitely in the Tournament bracket when the Big 12 Tournament began, but now they're going to have to sweat out the rest of the weekend. If we analyze the full resume, we see a decent set of numbers: 9-7 in the Big 12, 21-10 overall, RPI of 45th, Sagarin around 40th. The worst number is the 3-8 record against the RPI Top 50, but this was their first loss against the team with an RPI worse than 75th. They have wins over Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Kansas State, and were a solid 6-4 in true road games. A win here probably would have wrapped up an at-large bid, but this first "bad" loss of the season will definitely make Bears fans stress until they see their name in the bracket Sunday evening. I still think they're getting into the Tournament, although I'll certainly re-visit this issue throughout the weekend.

UTEP 80, Houston 77
It only took about two hours for Conference USA to knock out both of its bubble teams, as Houston takes a fall right after UAB did the same. They have a win over Kentucky, but not the version of Kentucky that we're seeing now. They finished 11-5 in a decent Conference USA, but the RPI is out near 80th. This loss drops them to a terrible 1-7 against the RPI Top 100, with that sole victory being over the aforementioned Kentucky (a team which obviously was not in the RPI Top 100 when Houston beat them). I just don't see any part of this resume that is very good, and Houston's Tournament hopes are definitely over.

First Of Several Updates

Ah, conference tournament time - gotta love it. Less than two weeks ago I talked about how more than 300 teams were still alive for the national championship. I didn't want to do the math myself, but I did hear somebody on Sportscenter say that 305 teams get to enter conference tournaments, which has to be in the right ballpark. Of those 300+ teams, more than half of them have already been eliminated as I type this post. There are only around 100-125 teams that are either in the Tournament or still have a shot to get an automatic or at-large bid (using my very liberal standards of who is "still alive" in the at-large race).

While no automatic bids are on the line today, at least 20 bubble teams have "must-win" games today, so there is a lot of action all day. With that in mind, I'll have several updates today. Here's the first look-in:

Charlotte 75, Rhode Island 73

Rhode Island is probably the archetypal Atlantic Ten team this season. They got off to a great start, leading to incredibly inflated RPI. Their out-of-conference resume was all about beating up on mediocre teams, and they went 14-1 against the 196th ranked out-of-conference resume. They got off to a strong start in the Atlantic Ten as well, but a poor finish and a bad A-10 Tournament should seal it. The RPI has plummeted to 74th, and the Sagarin is in the same range. Charlotte, meanwhile, keeps alive their very slim chances for an at-large bid. They need to reach the Atlantic Ten Tournament Championship to have any kind of a shot on Selection Sunday. If they fall in the title game, then we can talk about whether they still deserve to get in. But for now, their season lasts at least one more game.

#9 Georgetown 82, Villanova 63
Yesterday I said that this game was probably a must-win for Villanova. They still have a chance to get into the Tournament, but their odds are probably long at this time. The resume is pretty good: 20 wins, 9-9 in the Big East, computer numbers right around 50th in the country. They are a decent 7-9 against the RPI Top 100, and 8-8 in road/neutral games. If the season ended right now, there's probably a better-than-50% chance that they'd sneak into the field. But there are more than 48 hours left in Championship Week, and the number of available bubble spots is going to shrink. After the smoke clears we can make a casualty report, and Nova will probably get left out. Georgetown, meanwhile, looked very strong in this one. They overcame some very slow moments in the early second half, and finished strong against a dangerous Villanova team. Georgetown is still a long shot for a #1 seed, but they'll be in the discussion if they can take the Big East Tournament. If they win the Big East Tournament they'll be a lock for a #2 seed or better. Even with a loss in their next game, they still won't drop any lower than a #3.

#12 Xavier 74, Dayton 65
A solid all-around game for Xavier as they squeezed the life out of Dayton in this one, and probably put Dayton fans out of their misery. Despite the incredibly inflated RPI (29th as I type this), Dayton is an extreme long shot for an at-large bid. It was never a great likelihood for a team to escape a mid-major conference after finishing with a .500 record. The 9-5 record against the RPI Top 100 seems very impressive until you remember how many of those wins came in conference, where the RPIs are all out of whack. They also have had four losses in the past month and a half against teams with an RPI of 120 or worse, and despite a little spurt at the end of the season will still finish 6-6 in their final twelve games. An interesting note is that I've been validated for sticking by the Sagarin PREDICTOR early in the season (see this post from January for an example). I talked about how even though Dayton's RPI was in the Top 15, their win/loss ratio was far better than it should have been according to its level of play. At the time, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS was in the 20s, while their PREDICTOR was close to 60th. I correctly pointed out that those two ratings will always converge as the season goes on. And usually it's the PREDICTOR that is a lot closer to the final ranking. And indeed, today's loss will put Dayton's ELO_CHESS in the 60s, and their PREDICTOR around 80th. Overall, their total Sagarin Rating will be in the mid-60s... exactly where the early-and-mid season PREDICTOR said that they'd end up. In other words, they balanced out those early close wins with a lot of late close losses. In the long run, these rankings almost always work out... there's the reason that it's called the "PREDICTOR."

Tulsa 78, UAB 68, OT
A lot of people jumped off the UAB bandwagon when they finished the regular season with a 38 point loss at Memphis. In fact, they still had a chance to earn an at-large bid with a solid performance in the Conference USA Tournament. But a loss to Tulsa in the quarterfinals doesn't fit anybody's definition of "solid", and UAB is done. Houston remains in the bubble discussion, but otherwise this conference is only getting two teams into the Tournament if Memphis gets knocked off.

D-3 BP65

Remember, the schedule of BP65s changes a bit during the final week of the season. The next one will be out after Friday night's games. That's a day earlier in the week than usual. Anyway, without further ado:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. TENNESSEE (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas

3. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. Louisville
3. Stanford

4. UConn
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Notre Dame
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. Vanderbilt
5. Indiana
5. Washington State
5. Marquette

6. Mississippi State
6. Michigan State
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Purdue

7. Kansas State
7. Gonzaga
7. West Virginia
7. Clemson

8. Oklahoma
8. Pittsburgh
8. USC
8. UMass

9. Kentucky
9. UNLV
9. Baylor
9. KENT STATE (MAC)

10. Miami (Fl)
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Ohio State
10. Illinois State

11. Saint Mary's
11. South Alabama
11. Arizona
11. Texas A&M

12. Villanova
12. Arkansas
12. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
12. Oregon

13. SAN DIEGO (WCC)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, VCU, New Mexico, Arizona State, Florida

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Dayton, St. Joseph's, UAB, Mississippi

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Wake Forest, Temple, Houston

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Charlotte, Rhode Island, Syracuse, Nebraska, Creighton, Southern Illinois, San Diego State

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

More Burst Bubbles

The Championship Week appetizers are over, and now we get to the meat of the schedule. The Big East, Atlantic Ten and Conference USA Tournaments are already under way. The Pac-10 Tournament starts up in only a couple of hours. And every Tournament that hasn't already begun will start by tomorrow afternoon at the latest. As usual, the early days of Championship Week succeeded in shrinking the bubble, putting even more pressure on teams playing these early round conference tournament games. Without further ado, let's get right into the most important games completed since my last post:

San Diego 69, #22 Gonzaga 62
For the second time in recent memory, Gonzaga has lost the WCC Tournament. And once again, San Diego dealt the fatal blow. I'm not sure why San Diego was given homefield advantage for this tournament, but they certainly took advantage of the situation. The fact that these were effectively true road losses for Gonzaga and St. Mary's certainly helps their resume. Upon reflection, I was probably too hasty in declaring that St. Mary's "will earn an at-large bid", because it's not a complete lock. Gonzaga is safe, but St. Mary's might have to sweat a bit on Selection Sunday if there is a lot of chaos in these last few days of Championship Week. The RPI and Sagarin numbers are both solidly in the mid-to-high-30s, and they have a nice 8-6 record against the RPI Top 100. What might scare some people off is the fact that St. Mary's will probably earn an at-large bid on the basis of scheduling. They managed to get good teams to come to town, where they are very strong at home. And all of their scalps came in their home gym (Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, Ohio... and Gonzaga, of course). The fact that they have struggled against good teams on the road (1-5 in road/neutral games against the RPI Top 100) will probably not keep them out of the Tournament altogether, but it should be a big warning sign when you're filling out your brackets. Barring some generous seeding, I'm pretty ready to pencil them in as a first round exit. A side issue for this particular game is that we now have to find a seed for San Diego. They're probably staring at something in the #13 seed range. They could sneak up around a #11 or 12, or slide to a #14, but right now they feel like a #13. I'll look more into this when I get ready to finalize tonight's new BP65.

Middle Tennessee State 82, South Alabama 73
Oops. The Blue Raiders took the early lead and it felt like South Alabama's self-confidence worked against them here. They never panicked, and never really managed to chop into that lead. They forgot that the longer you let an underdog hang onto the lead, the more confident they start to feel. With Davidson earning an automatic bid, South Alabama probably becomes the most interesting mid-major case (although I'll listen to VCU as a similarly interesting resume). The overall resume is pretty solid - the RPI is 40th, the Sagarin is 47th, they're 26-6 including 4-3 against the RPI Top 100. Nice wins include San Diego, Mississippi State and the sweep of Western Kentucky. The only bad loss was at North Texas, unless you include the two losses to Middle Tennessee State (RPI of 105th). The fact that they did basically take care of business in a tricky conference has to be respected, and they're probably in the Tournament if things ended today. But you never know when your conference tournament ends so early in the week. Depending on what happens the rest of the week, USA could end up very disappointed and on their way to the NIT.

Villanova 82, Syracuse 63
Syracuse hung in this one for a while, but eventually Villanova's overall ability and depth took over. In all, they shot 50% from behind the arc as well as a solid 77% from the line to finish the game off. Syracuse has a bunch of good players, the problem is just that too many of them are on the injured reserve. It feels like every season since Carmelo left they'd found themselves on the bubble, sweating it out on Selection Sunday. This year they won't have to sweat too much, because barring a miracle they're going to earn another NIT trip. The RPI has collapsed to 51st and the Sagarin is in the 40s as well. Their non-conference RPI (31st) isn't good enough to balance out a mediocre Big East season (9-9). And they closed with six losses in their final nine games. I think they're pretty much done now. As for Villanova, this was a must-win game for them and they came through. The computer numbers are still on par with those of Syracuse, and they also went 9-9 in the Big East, but they now have three straight wins and seven of their last ten since a five-game losing streak nearly buried them. The nice ending and the overall decent resume (including wins over Pitt and UConn) will keep Villanova in the conversation on Selection Sunday, but I think they need one more defining moment if they're really going to earn that at-large bid. They play Georgetown on ESPN at noon tomorrow eastern time, and I think that game will define things for the Wildcats. A win there and they're almost definitely in the Big Dance. A loss in that game and they're most likely heading to the NIT. It's not good to have a must-win game against a Top Ten team with something to play for, but Villanova has the talent and coach to do it. And this is the situation they've put themselves in, losing to the likes of Rutgers and Depaul.

West Virginia 58, Providence 53

This is the clincher for West Virginia. The resume was already good heading into the Big East Tournament, with an 11-7 conference record and an RPI in the low-30s (not to mention a Sagarin Rating of 20th). The only way they were going to miss the Tournament was if they fell flat on their face and a chaotic Championship Week caused the bubble size to plummet. This win over a dangerous Providence should put that issue to rest, regardless of their result tomorrow against UConn. As a side note, I'm ready to put West Virginia on a short list of Tournament sleepers right now. I'll get to this issue on a deeper level later, but teams that look primed to over-perform are those whose results indicate a lot of close losses as well as big wins. It means that their win-loss record isn't as good as it deserves to be based on their level of play. The easiest way to see that is to look for a team with a Sagarin PREDICTOR far better than its ELO_CHESS. And few BCS conference teams can match West Virginia's rankings of 7th and 31st, respectively. In other words, this is potentially a Top Ten talent team. The Mountaineers are definitely a threat to make it to the second week of the Tournament if the Bracket Gods set them up with a decent route.

Monday, March 10, 2008

One At-Large Spot Gone?... Two?

William & Mary 56, VCU 54
A stunning upset in the Colonial provides an interesting at-large case. Two things made this loss shocking - the first one being that William & Mary is a school that doesn't have much basketball history. The school has existed since the 17th century, but it's never earned a trip to the NCAA Tournament. If you flip to ESPN soon after this gets posted, you'll get a chance to see them try to earn that first spot by upsetting George Mason in the CAA Tournament Finals. What also made this loss shocking was that VCU played pretty well. It wasn't like they went ice-cold from the field. In all, they shot 42% from the field, including 9-for-18 from behind the arc. A couple of missed free throws late in the game were killers, but William & Mary kept this game close with solid defense and overall hustle. Now, I said that VCU could earn an at-large bid by losing a close game in the finals to George Mason, so does that apply to a close loss in the semis to William & Mary? Unfortunately, probably not. Even the George Mason scenario was simply a possibility, and they still might have missed out on the Tournament. One thing that should keep them hopeful is that their resume looks quite similar to the 2005-06 Utah State team that snuck into the Tournament as an at-large (although was widely considered the most surprising selection that season). To compare, the '06 Utah State team leads the RPI battle 46 to 52. VCU went 15-3 in conference to Utah State's 11-5, although Utah State was in a superior conference. Utah State went 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 while VCU went 3-3. Utah State had a more impressive top win (Nevada), while VCU's top wins are more mediocre (Maryland, Houston, Akron). All in all, the resumes are pretty similar. But VCU isn't competing against '06 Utah State - they're competing against a slew of '08 teams. And we'll have to see what happens in other conferences to see if they can sneak in through the back door.

Virginia 91, Maryland 76
The bubble hasn't quite burst for Maryland, but time is definitely running out for the Terps. The loss drops them 8-8 in the ACC, which wouldn't be all that bad if they had a good out-of-conference resume with which to balance it out. The problem is that their out-of-conference RPI is 111th. Their only RPI Top 100 victory outside of the ACC was against Charlotte. In conference they obviously have that win at Chapel Hill, but that's it. Overall the RPI has slipped to 69th due to a 7-10 record against the RPI Top 100. The overall road/neutral record is also bad, at 5-7. If the season ended now they'd almost definitely be out of the Tournament, but their bubble hasn't burst because there are so many opportunities for big wins in the ACC Tournament. They start with a must-win against Boston College, but then draw Clemson in the ACC Quarterfinals. To me, that's a must-win as well. I think Maryland absolutely needs to get to the ACC Semifinals if they're going to have a decent chance on Selection Sunday. If they really want to feel good about their chances, they probably need to make the ACC Finals. That would probably require a win over Duke, which would be a great way to end. But the way Maryland has slumped to a close (four losses in their last five games), do you really see them running off three straight victories against ACC opposition? Me neither.

San Diego 75, Saint Mary's 69

With Gonzaga barely surviving their WCC Semifinal match, we were almost guaranteed to lose an at-large bid here. Saint Mary's will earn an at-large bid, as will Gonzaga if they need it. But San Diego has no chance at an at-large bid, and a win for them tonight would mean that the number of Tournament openings would effectively shrink by one. We are all aware of the fact that Gonzaga has won eight of the last nine WCC Tournament titles. But are you aware of the one blemish in that streak? That's right - San Diego beat the Zags in 2003. Tune in tonight, at 9pm eastern time on ESPN.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Sunday Evening Look Back

#1 North Carolina 76, #5 Duke 68
Not much to say about this game that hasn't already been said a thousand times all over the media. Duke struggles when the threes aren't falling, although when they're hot they can score like nobody else. They continue to struggle with big inside presences. Also, Ty Lawson was outstanding - if that's him at "80 percent" then I shudder to think what he'll be like at full speed. One side note was that I actually liked the way that the refs let this game go without calling a lot of fouls. It gets frustrating in games (like the UCLA/Cal game yesterday) where it feels like every single possession ends in a foul. It just drags out the second half, and makes it impossible for the game to really get into a flow. I know that Hansbrough deserved to get to the line a couple of times, but I don't feel too bad for him after all of the love that refs have thrown his way over the past three years. His favorite move is throwing his body into his defender and drawing the foul. He was a better and more interesting player when he was forced to actually try to score from the floor, knowing that he wouldn't get bailed out by the officials. As much as ESPN tried to hype this game, it actually settled nothing. Neither team was going to lock up a #1 seed with this win, and neither team was going to be out of that discussion with a loss. Duke will almost surely get a #1 seed if they win the ACC Tournament. UNC locks up a #1 seed with a win in the ACC Tournament, and will be an outside shot to still get that top seed even with a loss in the Finals. Duke has no shot at a #1 seed without winning the ACC Tournament.

Oregon 78, Arizona 69
You have to admire this gritty Oregon team. With their backs against the wall, they won three straight must-win games to bring their Pac-10 record back up to 9-9. No Pac-10 team has ever earned an at-large bid with a 9-9 record, but if ever there was a year for that it's this one. The RPI is 52nd, but the Sagarin Rating is up into the 30s. The 7-10 record against the RPI Top 100 is okay, highlighted by wins over Stanford and Kansas State, and a sweep of Arizona. They've got work left to do to earn an at-large bid, but they're definitely in the discussion as we enter the Pac-10 Tournament. Arizona, meanwhile, is in a free-fall. Don't be fooled by the RPI of 32 - the resume has a lot of holes, not least of which being a 3-7 record over their last ten games. They have got to win at least one game in the Pac-10 Tournament to earn an at-large bid (which should be automatic, as it's winless Oregon State), but even that might not be enough. In the Quarterfinals, Arizona will be drawn with Stanford, which has got to be considered a must-win game for Arizona. A loss there and they're probably missing the Tournament for the first time in a very long time (I think it's been more than 20 years).

Kentucky 75, Florida 70
A great start for Florida, but a long dry spell meant doom for the Gators. Kentucky's regular season re-birth is complete, as they move that RPI from the 250 range up to 49th. This is now 11 wins in their last 13 games, to finish the SEC 12-4. Can a 12-4 SEC team get denied from the Tournament? I have to say that they probably can't, although the overall resume is still pretty weak. The Sagarin Rating will be around 50th when the new numbers come out tomorrow, which is a very dangerous place to be. They are only 5-9 against the RPI Top 100, and 4-6 in road/neutral games. If you just look at the overall resume, they'd probably still be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. But the Selection Committee puts a lot of weight on strong finishes, and you won't be able to come up with anything close to 34 teams that have finished stronger than the Wildcats. Kentucky needs to beat the winner of Mississippi/Georgia in the SEC Quarterfinals to really feel safe about that at-large bid, but right now they've got to be considered in the field. Florida, on the other hand, is clearly going to regret that easy schedule. Despite the 21-10 record, they are almost definitely out of the Tournament field as of this moment. The RPI has fallen into the 60s, and the 3-7 record in the last ten games is very weak. Overall, they are an atrocious 3-9 against the RPI Top 100, and 4-6 in road/neutral games. In the SEC Tournament, Florida needs to beat both Alabama (first round) and Mississippi State (Quarterfinals) to be in a decent position for an at-large bid. Depending on what happens around the country, Florida might need a win in the SEC Semifinals (most likely a re-match with Kentucky) to earn an at-large bid.

Ohio State 63, #18 Michigan State 54
While Florida is playing their way out of the Tournament, last year's other NCAA Finalist is playing their way in. They were given a great opportunity by the schedule makers, who had them close with home games against Purdue and Michigan State. The Buckeyes took advantage, winning both to finish up 10-8 in the Big Ten. With two consecutive wins over Top 25 teams, the Buckeyes are now a decent 6-9 against the RPI Top 100. One thing that is worrisome for me is the way that this young and immature team has really struggled on the road (4-8 in true road games). The RPI is 47th and the Sagarin Rating has slid into the high-30s. Things are looking up for the Buckeyes except for one thing - their next game will be against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals. It's very tough to win two games in a row over the same team, and the Buckeyes won't have the home-field advantage in the rematch. Another Ohio State win would probably put them into the Tournament, but a loss might drop them back into the NIT.