Thursday, February 28, 2013

W-2.5 BP68

Let me say up front that I know New Mexico fans are going to be mad at me. I already have a bunch mad at me on twitter. But so be it. I guess I have a little bit of faith that the Selection Committee will see through New Mexico's obviously gamed RPI. Regardless, I do think that New Mexico could get a 2 seed if they win out, but that's not what I'm projecting. I think there's a pretty good chance that they'll lose another regular season game, and I'm projecting Colorado State to win the Mountain West tournament, and so that's why I've dropped New Mexico to a 5 seed. If the season ended today? New Mexico would probably be a 3 seed.

Looking at the rest of the bracket, Florida has been dropped from the top overall spot for the first time in a couple of months. I do still think that they'll likely get a 1 seed if they win out, but it's no longer a guarantee. Indiana, in my opinion, is the safer bet for a 1 seed.

At the bottom of the bracket, California and Akron move into the Tournament, while Baylor and Ohio drop out. While I'm moving Akron in as the MAC auto bid winner, they're also a potential at-large team, though at this point I do think that they'd more likely than not get left out if they fell in the MAC tournament. I did move Akron up to a 12 seed, which means that the second play-in game (La Salle vs California) got dropped to a 13 seed.

Eight teams have been eliminated from at-large contention since Sunday: Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, USC, Tulane, West Virginia and Wyoming. That leaves 30 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. Michigan State

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. Miami (Fl)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

3. Georgetown
3. Michigan
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin

4. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
4. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. New Mexico
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
5. St. Louis

6. North Carolina
6. Marquette
6. Butler
6. Notre Dame

7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. NC State
7. San Diego State
7. Missouri

8. Minnesota
8. UNLV
8. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
8. Oregon

9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Cincinnati
9. Illinois
9. Iowa State

10. Kentucky
10. UCLA
10. Oklahoma
10. St. Mary's

11. Colorado
11. Virginia
11. Wichita State
11. Villanova

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. Ole Miss
12. Iowa
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. La Salle
13. California
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Temple, Baylor, Boise State, Alabama, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, St. John's, Arizona State, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
UMass, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Southern Miss, Indiana State, Air Force, Stanford, LSU, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Florida State, Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond, Providence, UTEP, Detroit, Washington, Texas A&M, New Mexico State

Hot Shooting USC Beats Arizona

USC 89, #11 Arizona 78
USC shot out of their minds in this game, to say the least. They hit 6-for-10 behind the arc and finished with a 66.7 eFG%. That's their best shooting performance since they had a 68.0 eFG% in a 95-86 win over Oregon on January 26, 2008. And it was a team effort. Five different USC players scored in double digits, and only Eric Wise (22 points on 9-for-12 shooting) broke 20. The reason this game was close was because USC was sloppy - they had 17 turnovers (Jio Fontan had 7 by himself) and only 5 offensive rebounds, meaning that they wasted a whole bunch of possessions.

When Arizona was 20-2, it was easy to see them earning a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, or even to contend for a 1 seed, but that's basically over now. Arizona's 23-5 record is good, but they're only 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and have a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is likely going to drop out of the Top 25 tomorrow. If the season ended now, Arizona would likely be a 4 seed, but they could be as low as a 5 seed, and even something like a 6 seed is realistic if they really fade down the stretch. They have a tough game coming up next, too, on the road at UCLA on Saturday.

USC has somehow climbed to 8-7 in Pac-12 play, and only a game out of fifth place. They're not going to earn a first round bye, but they could win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament. The Trojans do have a tough remaining schedule, though. They'll face Arizona State on Saturday, and then will go on the road to face the two Washington teams next week.

Evansville 59, Wichita State 56
This was an excruciating loss for Wichita State. Evansville grabbed a lead with 8-for-14 three-point shooting, and Wichita State pulled within three points with 3:28 to go. After that? In the final 3:28, these two teams combined for 0-for-10 shooting, 3 turnovers and 0 total points scored. The game just froze to a halt, and Wichita State simply could not get a shot to fall. And with the Missouri Valley looking more and more like a one-bid league by the day, Wichita State really did not need another bad loss on their resume.

With this loss, Wichita State falls to 24-6 overall, with wins over VCU, Iowa and Creighton, along with bad losses to Southern Illinois and Evansville (twice). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely drop out of the Top 50 tomorrow, though their RPI is still 38th, and I think those quality wins outweigh those bad losses. The key for Wichita State will be that regular season finale at Creighton on Saturday. A win there should safely put them in the NCAA Tournament, unless they totally fall on their face in the Missouri Valley tournament. But with a loss to Creighton, they might need to make it to the Missouri Valley title game to lock up that Tournament bid.

Evansville moves to 9-8 in Missouri Valley play, with a very winnable season finale against Indiana State on Saturday. They are not in contention for an at-large bid, but the Missouri Valley is looking increasingly wide open, so Evansville could easily go on a little run in Arch Madness.

Texas 92, Oklahoma 86, OT
With the NCAA Tournament potentially on the line, this is a really bad loss for Oklahoma. Before getting to it, though, I want to note that I was shocked how small the Texas attendance was. The official attendance was 9.860, but there were maybe half that many that actually showed up. Many of the lower deck sections were mostly empty. I know that Texas isn't playing for an at-large bid anymore, but still... goes to show how much of a "football school" Texas is.

Anyway, the reality is that Oklahoma probably should have won this game in regulation. First, they led by 22 points with under 7 minutes to go, and just totally collapsed late. But even then, they led by two and forced Myck Kabongo into an impossible shot at the buzzer (I don't think he could even see the basket as the ball left his hand), but that impossible shot somehow went in. In overtime. Texas got a huge three-pointer from Ioannis Papapetrou and then hit their final five free throw attempts. Kabongo led the way with a monster 31 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists. Romero Osby led Oklahoma with 31 points on 9-for-13 shooting.

This loss drops Oklahoma to 18-9 overall and 9-6 in Big 12 play, with wins over Kansas, Oklahoma State and Baylor (twice), along with potentially iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should stay in the Top 40 tomorrow, but their 7-8 record against the RPI Top 100 is not very good. If the season ended now, Oklahoma would probably be an NCAA Tournament team, but not with  much room to spare. To stay in the Field of 68, I think they need to win three more games total. So a 2-1 finish and then a win in the Big 12 tournament should do it. They'll face Iowa State in a big "bubble battle" on Saturday.

Texas moves to 5-10 with this win, though they're still almost certainly going to be stuck playing in the Big 12 tournament first round. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Oklahoma State.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Penn State Finally Wins... Against Michigan

Penn State 84, #4 Michigan 78
I think it's safe to say that Penn State was one of the best 0-14 teams of all-time. The Big Ten is really good this season, and Penn State has also had some bad luck in close games, so they're obviously better than their record. Penn State would probably be something like 5-9 if they were in the SEC. But still, this is a pretty surprising upset. As much as Michigan's defense has struggled at times this season, they just got eviscerated by Penn State here. The Nittany Lions scored 1.22 PPP, their best offensive efficiency against any opponent since beating Indiana 69-60 on December 27, 2010.

Jermaine Marshall led the way with 6-for-10 three-point shooting (as a team, Penn State hit 10-for-20), and 25 points. DJ Newbill also was good, with 17 points on 6-for-13 shooting. Ross Travis quietly had 15 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. As for Michigan, Tim Hardaway led the way with 19 points, but he was invisible in the second half. Michigan seemed to be half asleep and half in shock, and Trey Burke (18 points and 6 assists) was the one player still giving his all trying to keep Michigan in the lead late. Obviously Michigan would have won if they hadn't gone cold on threes (5-for-20), and some of the reffing late in the game was a bit pro-Penn State, but there's no excuse for Michigan being in a situation where that can cost them a game against Penn State. Just a poor performance.

Michigan is really starting to fade in the Big Ten standings. They are now in a tie for fourth place with Ohio State, with a real risk of losing that first round Big Ten tournament bye. They would now need to basically win out to earn a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and could easily fall to a 3 seed, or even a 4 seed. Their next game will be on Sunday, at home against Michigan State. After that they have a road game at Purdue and then a home game at Indiana, so the Wolverines could lose multiple games if they're not careful. And now that five of their past seven opponents have broken 1 PPP, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the offense to carry them down the stretch.

Unless you're a Michigan fan, it's good to see Penn State avoid the 0-18 season and for the fans to get something positive out of the season. The student section got to rush the floor. And Pat Chambers deserves credit for getting great effort out of his kids after their season has been long over, but the talent just has to be upgraded. There's no coach in history who could win consistently in the Big Ten with the level of talent Chambers has.

Akron 88, Ohio 81
Akron kept their 19 game winning streak (the longest in the nation) alive here... somehow. Akron led for much of the second half, but a tight end to regulation was finished off by Ohio's Jon Smith hitting a layup just before the buzzer. Overtime was just a long slog to the free throw line - Akron hit 10-for-13 from the line, as they slowly squeezed the life out of the game. For the game, Akron hit 23-for-31 at the free throw line, and also hit 50% of their threes. How did Ohio stay in this game? DJ Cooper was superb (26 points, including 5-for-10 behind the arc), while Walter Offutt had 15 points and 10 rebounds. Ohio tends to be very tough to beat at home - this is the first MAC conference game they've lost at home in more than two full years.

There are two questions that come out of this game: Who is the favorite for the MAC's auto bid, and how realistic are Akron's at-large chances. To answer the first, Akron is slightly than Ohio in the computer ratings, leads the MAC in efficiency margin in conference play, and now has the head-to-head sweep. A MAC tournament title game will be close and competitive, but at this point I think the edge has to go to Akron.

And what about Akron's at-large chances? If they win the rest of their regular season games and then lose a close MAC title game to Ohio, they'll be 27-5 overall, with a win over Middle Tennessee along with bad losses to Coastal Carolina and Detroit. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be close to 50th, though their RPI will be up close to 30th. They'll have a good case, but in my opinion those types of resumes tend to get left out of the Tournament. The problem is that as well as Akron has played, they haven't really beaten anybody. They had a great chance against Oklahoma State, but lost in overtime. And more likely than not, it'll cost them the NCAA Tournament unless they win the MAC's auto bid.

Akron will play next at Buffalo, on Saturday. Ohio goes on the road to face Bowling Green on Saturday, and then Buffalo on Tuesday. Wins in those two games will lock up the 2 seed in the MAC, and the bye to the MAC tournament semifinals that comes with it.

Georgia Tech 78, Maryland 68
Maryland has not handled the success of their win over Duke well, to say the least. With a home win over Clemson sandwiched between bad losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech, the Terps are plummeting out of the bracket. Their offense scored only 0.87 PPP here, the 9th time in 16 ACC games that they've failed to crack 1 PPP. Alex Len actually played okay here (13 points and 9 rebounds), as did Dez Wells (15 points on 6-for-10 shooting), but they didn't get much help.

Maryland is 19-9 overall and 7-8 in ACC play, but only 3-7 against the RPI Top 100, and with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will drop near 60th tomorrow. So if the season ended now, Maryland would be an NIT team. To earn an at-large bid, they really need to win their final three regular season games. If they go only 2-1 down the stretch then they'll have a whole bunch of work to do in the ACC tournament. They'll play on the road at Wake Forest on Saturday, but the real tests will come next week, when they will play North Carolina and Virginia.

Georgia Tech moves to 5-10 in ACC play with this win. They are also 15-12 overall, which means their odds of finishing the season over .500 are pretty good. Their next game will be on Sunday, against NC State.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Indiana And Florida Both Tumble

Minnesota 77, #1 Indiana 73
Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten, and Indiana is a perimeter oriented team, but it was still shocking to see how badly Indiana was destroyed in the paint. The Gophers had a 50.0 OR%, and also hit 53% of their two-point attempts. For a while there Minnesota's offense consisted of launching terrible three-pointers just to get the offensive rebounds and put-backs. And on the other end of the floor, they took Cody Zeller out of the game, holding him to only 9 shots attempts (9 points, 7 rebounds). The Hoosiers have several good outside shooters, and the Gophers are a team that defend the three-point line poorly, but they need to get Zeller more involved in the offense.

This win should put to rest any bubble concerns for Minnesota. The Gophers have the #1 strength of schedule in the nation, and so despite the 6-8 Big Ten record they only needed a 2-2 finish to lock up an at-large bid. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was 25th even before this win. They'll have no problem getting one more win (Saturday's home game against Penn State should do it), and at that point will just be playing for Tournament seed.

The good news for Indiana is that I don't think this loss will impact them too much. They are still a solid favorite to win the Big Ten regular season title, though Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin all have a realistic chance of earning a share now. Indiana is also still very likely to earn a 1 seed in March. A share of the Big Ten regular season title and a trip to the Big Ten tournament title game should be enough to lock that up. They'll face Iowa on Saturday and then Ohio State next Tuesday.

Tennessee 64, #8 Florida 58
Florida was short-handed here, without either Will Yeguette or Michael Frazier, leaving them with what was effectively a six man rotation. On top of that, Kenny Boynton (1-for-7 from the field) and Mike Rosario (5-for-14 from the field) both played poorly, particularly down the stretch. The Vols were getting all of the loose balls, and the Gators just seemed to not care as much. To be fair, it's got to be hard to maintain your motivation when there is no serious competition in conference play.

That Gators will remain #1 in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR when the new numbers come out tomorrow. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're the best team in the country - you can make a good case for Indiana - but it means that if they do fall to a 2 seed then it's going to be a tough break for whichever team gets the 1 seed in their bracket. The Gators could very realistically get punished from the Selection Sunday for their conference being so poor. They are only 5-3 against the RPI Top 50 this season. But that said, some of the other top teams will end up falling during their conference tournaments, and I do still think Florida will earn a 1 seed as long as they win the SEC tournament. They do suddenly have a relatively important game on Saturday against Alabama. The Tide would move into a tie for first place in the SEC if they somehow pull the upset.

With this win, the Vols move to 17-10 overall and 9-6 in SEC play, with wins over Wichita State, Kentucky and now Florida, along with bad losses to Georgia and Arkansas. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is going to move into the 40-45 range, and they're definitely a bubble team now. They do need to win at least two of their final three regular season games, and then will need to win a game or two in the SEC tournament. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Georgia.

Xavier 64, #19 Memphis 62
The talk after this game was that Memphis showed a lack of effort and just got outworked. They did get outworked on the glass (Xavier had a 40.0 OR% compared to a 24.2 OR% for Memphis), but in general I don't think we need a big narrative here. Memphis had won 18 straight games... they were eventually going to lose a game. That 18 game winning streak was awfully soft, as was that #19 next to their team name.

The polls move teams up through inertia for winning, but Conference USA is awful this season. Memphis has two RPI Top 50 wins all season, and both of them came against Southern Miss. Arguably, the best win Memphis has had all season came against Tennessee. As Ken Pomeroy pointed out on twitter, Memphis actually dropped in his ratings from 35th to 37th throughout that 18 game winning streak. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was 24th before this game, but with this loss will drop them a lot closer to the 35-40 range that will get them in the bubble conversation. The Selection Committee tends not to like teams that don't have any big wins.

The Tigers have two key games up next, on the road at UCF on Saturday and at UTEP next Tuesday. Neither of those games will be easy, and a loss in either game will likely drop Memphis to the bubble. If Memphis can navigate these final three regular season games and gets to the Conference USA tournament final, then that probably will be sufficient to lock up an at-large bid.

Xavier is 16-11 overall and 8-5 in the Atlantic Ten. They have an impressive 4-2 record against the RPI Top 50, but only 4-6 against the RPI Top 100, with five RPI 100+ losses. They'd have to win all three of their remaining regular season games to even get into the bubble conversation. With a strong finish, they still have a chance at a top four finish in the Atlantic Ten, which would get them a bye to the A-10 tournament quarterfinals. Their next game will be on Saturday, against UMass.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Syracuse Stumbles Against Marquette


#22 Marquette 74, #12 Syracuse 71
What's mystifying about the fading fortunes of Syracuse (this is their 5th loss in their last 9 games) is that you can't really point at one problem. Perhaps it's a good thing that Syracuse has no fatal flaw, but it's got to be a serious concern for Jim Boeheim that his team seems so incapable of putting a complete game together.

Probably the most persistent problem that Syracuse has had has been Michael Carter-Williams. Carter-Williams is a terrific offensive creator when he chooses to be. He had 9 or more assists in 11 of his first 14 games played this season. Since? He has hit the 9 assists margin just once in his last 14 games. Carter-Williams is now averaging 7.3 assists per game in Big East wins, versus only 3.4 assists per game in Big East losses (he had 5 assists and 4 turnovers here). Carter-Williams is a tremendous raw talent and athlete, but he just seems to have lost focus offensively the past few weeks, and it's ground the Syracuse offense to a halt. His one 9+ assists performance in the past 14 games? Against Providence last week, where he had 12 assists and only 8 shots taken. The result? Syracuse scored 84 points and crushed the Friars by 25.

Davante Gardner was the star for Marquette here, dominating Syracuse in the paint for 26 points on 7-for-7 shooting from the field and 12-for-13 shooting at the line. It's not often that you'll see a performance like that against the Syracuse zone. By the way, I was looking up stats on Marquette's offense at home, which has been absurd this season, and came across this gem that you can use as trivia. Three teams have held Marquette below 1 PPP at home this season, and those three teams are Georgetown, Wisconsin and... Southeastern Louisiana. Which of those is not like the other?

This loss drops Syracuse to two full games back of Georgetown for the Big East title, though they still have a chance for a share. The reality was that they were going to need to win their season finale at Georgetown to have a chance of a share of the Big East regular season title anyway. But first, they'll play Louisville on Saturday, which represents another game that they must win to stay in the Big East title hunt. The Orange also need a win to keep their Tournament seed from dropping into the 4-5 range, after it had been in the 1-2 range for much of the season.

Marquette moves to within a half game of Georgetown atop the Big East, and pushes their Sagarin ELO_SCORE ever closer to the top ten. With a 6-4 record against the RPI Top 50, they are making a very strong claim for a 3 seed, and could move up to a 2 seed with a strong finish to the season. They'll play Notre Dame on Saturday, and then will finish the regular season with a couple of interesting road games, at Rutgers and St. John's. At 3-6 in true road games this season, Marquette has yet to prove a particularly dominant team away from the Bradley Center.

#6 Kansas 108, Iowa State 96, OT
Let's be clear about two things. First, Kansas outplayed Iowa State and was the better team. Second, without a whole string of referee calls in KU's favor late in regulation, Iowa State would have won this game. And that makes this a really tough loss for the Cyclones. One play that stands out to me was Jeff Withey clearly committing his fifth foul, but the refs giving the foul to Kevin Young for some reason. And the call that is getting the most buzz in social media, for obvious reasons, is the holding call following a blown no-call (it was a clear charge) that allowed Elijah Johnson to hit a pair of free throws at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime.

Elijah Johnson, after struggling so much throughout February, had a monster game here. He scored 39 points, with 6-for-10 shooting behind the arc including a 25 foot dagger with the shot clock running out late in overtime. So how was Iowa State in this game? Insane outside shooting of their own. They hit 17-for-41 behind the arc, including 17-for-35 (49%) in regulation. The stat that stands out is that Iowa State in regulation hit 49% of their three-pointers but only 26% of their two-pointers. What's particularly amazing is that Withey didn't even have a block today. But that just shows how overrated the block stat is, since Withey was the dominant reason that the Cyclones couldn't score in the paint. Withey is far and away the best low post defender in the nation... but there's not much you can do when your opponent is nailing 25 footers against you. Sadly for Iowa State, they got a taste of their own medicine in overtime.

If Iowa State misses the NCAA Tournament, they're going to look back at two brutal overtime losses to Kansas. At this point, though, I do still think they'll sneak in. They are 9-6 in Big 12 play with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will remain near 35th. They need at least two more wins from their final two regular seasons and/or the Big 12 tournament, and really need three to feel comfortable about things. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Oklahoma.

Kansas remains in a tie with Kansas State atop the Big 12 after this victory. With the tiebreak locked up and an easier remaining schedule, they'll likely be the 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, as they seemingly are every season. They have a pretty soft week coming up, with a home game against West Virginia on Saturday followed by a home game next Monday against Texas Tech.

Seton Hall 66, Villanova 65
Coming in with a nine game losing streak, it's hard to think of many teams more desperate for a win than Seton Hall. They're obviously just playing the rest of the season for pride, but they played great here, and ended up with a really exciting comeback victory. Villanova led for much of the second half, and led by four with under 30 seconds to go. Fuquan Edwin got to the line and hit both, to bring Seton Hall within two points with around 16 seconds left, and what followed was one of the wildest sequences I've seen all season. Villanova got the ball in to James Bell, who seemed startled by the fact that he was being trapped instead of being immediately fouled. The ball eventually got poked out from his grasp, and Tom Mayaan grabbed it, and as he was falling to the ground somehow found Fuquan Edwin, who nailed a three-pointer in the corner. Ryan Arcidiacono missed a tough, contested shot just before the buzzer, and Seton Hall walked away with the victory.

Coming off a big win over Marquette, this was definitely not what Villanova needed. This loss drops them to 9-7 in Big East play, with a 6-9 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is going to fade very close to 50th tomorrow. So if the season ended now, I think Villanova would probably be one of the first teams out of the NCAA Tournament. To get back in, they've really got to win one of those final two tough games (at Pittsburgh, vs Georgetown). If they can get one of those two games and then win at least one Big East tournament game (preferably two) then they should be in decent shape. The Pitt game is up first, on Sunday.

This win moves Seton Hall to 14-15 overall, and keeps alive their hope of finishing the season over .500. They'll have more than a week off before playing their next game, at Providence on March 5th. Their season finale will be against Rutgers, on March 8th.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Ohio State Beats Michigan State, Effectively Sealing The Title For IU

#18 Ohio State 68, #4 Michigan State 60
This was a tight and fun game that Ohio State somehow managed to win even without getting much from star DeShaun Thomas. Thomas was shut down, with only 4-for-16 shooting from the field, though Aaron Craft picked up much of the load with a strong 21 points and 6 assists.Craft also led a Buckeyes defense that was very sharp in the second half, forcing the ball out of the hands of Keith Appling and forcing the Michigan State bigs to generate their own offense from 10-15 feet away from the basket, which is not the way the Spartans want to play.

With a loss here, the Buckeyes would have just about locked up 5th place in the Big Ten, and been stuck playing Penn State on the first day of the Big Ten tournament. This win keeps their hopes of a top four finish, and a first round bye, alive. It also helps to firm up an Ohio State resume that, until a week ago, only had two wins against the RPI Top 50. This win means that, no matter how they finish the season, they're unlikely to earn worse than a 5 seed. A 4 seed is more likely, and a 3 seed is very realistic, too. Their next game will be on Thursday, at Northwestern.

This loss for Michigan State basically seals Indiana's Big Ten regular season title. They'd have to play poorly just for another team to have a chance to even earn a share of the title. This loss also increases the chances of the Big Ten only having a single 1 seed in March. If Indiana runs away with the title then they'll get a 1 seed, but it will be tough for Michigan State or Michigan to earn a 1 seed without winning the Big Ten tournament. I think the bare minimum for the Spartans to have a good argument for a 1 seed is a 13-5 finish and a trip to the Big Ten tournament semifinals. That means a 2-1 finish to their regular season. A season finale against Northwestern shouldn't be too difficult, but before that they'll have to play at Michigan on Saturday and then at home against Wisconsin the following Thursday. The Spartans need at least a split in those two games.

#7 Michigan 71, Illinois 58
Illinois played this game tight most of the way. They led for most of the first half, and were still only down by four points with under 8 minutes left. A quick Michigan 9-0 burst blew this game wide open, though, and it was not in doubt in the final couple of minutes. The biggest reason for the turn of events was rebounding - Illinois had 7 offensive rebounds in the first half, but zero in the second. Michigan locked down their second chance opportunities, and also used those defense rebounds to get secondary transition points. For the whole game, Illinois had no answer defensively for Trey Burke, who got the basket at will and finished with 26 points (on 8-for-11 shooting) and 8 assists.

Illinois was due to lose a game eventually, and this loss simply ends a five game winning streak that totally turned around their season. Three weeks ago, Illinois was 2-7 in Big Ten play, and looking like a lock for the NIT. No matter how good Illinois was and how many nice wins they had, it's been more than a decade since any team has earned an at-large bid while finishing four or more games below .500 in conference play. So they needed to find a way to get to at least 8-10. And even after this loss, they are still 7-8, and are almost certainly to win at least one of their final three games (their next game is at home against Nebraska on Saturday). If they get to 9-9 then that should more or less seal their at-large bid. If they lose two of their final three and fall to 8-10, they'll need a win in the first round of the Big Ten tournament to feel comfortable about their at-large chances.

Relatively competitive home victories over Penn State and Illinois aren't particularly impressive for Michigan, but it helps to right the ship after a 1-3 stretch. They remain on the periphery of the Big Ten regular season title race, though they probably need to win their final four games to get at least a share of it. They'll play at Penn State on Wednesday and at home against Michigan State next Saturday. If they get to 13-5 (a 3-1 finish) and make it to the Big Ten tournament title game, then that will put them serious consideration for a 1 seed.

#25 Notre Dame 62, Cincinnati 41
The Cincinnati offense is in an awful funk, and has been for about three weeks now. They have lost five of their last six games, during three of which they failed to score more than 0.86 PPP. Their three worst shooting performances have come in this streak, including a season-worst 33.3 eFG% here. It's their worst shooting performance of the season, and the fifth worst by any Big East team in any Big East game all season long. They managed to only score 0.72 PPP here, despite only five turnovers, which mathematically requires poor rebounding and (of course) horrible shooting.

It's no surprise that Cincinnati's two offensive weapons, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright, have struggled badly during this stretch. Kilpatrick has not scored 20 or more points in a game during this streak, and the only game in which he shot better than 38% from the field was also the one game Cincinnati won (against Villanova). He had a season low 6 points on 3-for-13 shooting here. Cashmere Wright has been even worse, failing to break 12 points in a game during this streak (keep in mind that he scored 20+ three times in a four games stretch back in January) and ending up totally shut out here (0 points on 0-for-2 shooting in 23 minutes).

At some point, Cincinnati's offense is going to have to wake up, and their defense is good enough that their offense really doesn't have to be particularly good for them to beat most teams, but they're doing irreparable damage to their NCAA Tournament seed. The Bearcats are now 7-8 in Big East play and 7-9 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will fade to around 30th tomorrow. They wouldn't be at risk of being an NIT team if the season ended now, but they could be if they lose two of their final three games, which isn't particularly implausible. A key game will be on Saturday against UConn. A win there would more or less seal up at least a 9-9 finish, and that should be enough to lock them in the Tournament, even if their seed could slide into the 9-11 range.

The Irish move to 10-5 with this win, and remain a long shot contender to earn a share of the Big East regular season title. They can get there by winning their final three games, but that's unlikely considering their schedule (they still have road games at Marquette and Louisville). The Marquette game is up first, on Saturday. But even without a share of the title, Notre Dame has a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that has slid into the Top 25, and they are moving into contention for a 6 or 5 seed, or perhaps even a 4 seed if they finish the season really strong.

W-3 BP68

Only three weeks to Selection Sunday. Only one week until we start conference tournaments. It's amazing how fast the college basketball season flies by, isn't it?

Since my last bracket projection there haven't been too many changes at the top. There was a little shuffling (the biggest being Georgetown moving up and Syracuse moving down), but not much. At the bottom of the bracket, I made two changes. First, Niagara replaces Iona as the MAAC favorite. Second, Villanova moves in as an at-large team, replacing Alabama. California is the first team out of my bracket - I almost moved them in for La Salle but changed my mind in the end.

Five teams have been eliminated from at-large contention since Sunday: Illinois State, Nevada, North Dakota State, Rutgers and Texas. That leaves 39 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. Michigan State

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Michigan
2. Miami (Fl)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Georgetown
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
3. Syracuse

4. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. New Mexico
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)

6. St. Louis
6. North Carolina
6. Marquette
6. Cincinnati

7. San Diego State
7. Butler
7. NC State
7. Notre Dame

8. Missouri
8. UNLV
8. Minnesota
8. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

9. Oregon
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Illinois
9. Iowa State

10. Oklahoma
10. Wichita State
10. Kentucky
10. UCLA

11. St. Mary's
11. Baylor
11. Colorado
11. Virginia

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. Ole Miss
12. Iowa
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. Villanova
12. La Salle

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Temple, Akron, Boise State, California, Alabama

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, St. John's, Arizona State, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Florida State, UMass, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Providence, Southern Miss, Indiana State, Air Force, LSU, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Dayton, Richmond, Northwestern, Purdue, West Virginia, UTEP, Tulane, Detroit, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, USC, Washington, Texas A&M, New Mexico State

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Villanova Beats Marquette, Moves Closer To An At-Large

Villanova 60, #17 Marquette 56
This game was a grind, with neither team able to get much offensive flow.  Marquette had nearly as many turnovers (19) as made baskets (22). Vander Blue (7 points and 4 assists) was shut down, and the Golden Eagles ended up with only 0.89 PPP. Villanova wasn't a whole lot better, but 22 points (on 7-for-10 shooting) from Darrun Hilliard was enough to put them over the top.

Villanova's success this year has been driven by their defense, though. They have held 8 of their past 12 opponents below 1 PPP. Overall they are allowing only 0.92 PPP, which is third best in the Big East, behind only Louisville and Georgetown. This season they are 12-2 when breaking 1 PPP on offense.

With this win, Villanova moves to 18-10 overall and 9-6 in Big East play, with wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and UConn, along with a bad loss to Columbia. Overall they are 7-9 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE near 40th. If the season ended now they'd be one of the last teams in the NCAA Tournament or one of the first few teams out. They are squarely on the bubble. To make the NCAA Tournament, I think a 2-1 finish and then at least one win in the Big East tournament will be enough. Monday night's game at Seton Hall is very important to take care of, with Pittsburgh and Georgetown coming up after that.

This loss drops Marquette out of a tie for first place in the Big East. They are 10-4 in Big East play, with a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will remain in the Top 20, so at this point they'd basically have to lose out to fall all the way back to the bubble. That's not going to happen, so at this point they're just playing for seed. Their next game will be on Monday, against Syracuse.

St. Mary's 74, Creighton 66
This was a really interesting game between two mid-majors that will be awfully scary NCAA Tournament opponents... if they can get there. Both have soft resumes, and desperately needed this win. St. Mary's got the win, and obviously they got a nice performance from Matthew Dellavedova (19 points, including 5-for-10 behind the arc), but they also managed to limit Doug McDermott (22 points on 7-for-18 shooting). It seemed as though St. Mary's was running a lot of their offense right at McDermott, wearing him out and limiting his effectiveness on the other end of the floor.

Creighton's team-wide shooting woes continued here. They hit only 28% of their threes and had a 46.1 eFG%. That brings their season record to 1-6 when having an eFG% under 52%, and 21-1 when having an eFG% over 52%. Their defense just isn't good enough to keep up teams when they're not shooting well.

Creighton should stay in the Top 30 of both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR tomorrow, but they are firmly on the Tournament bubble. Despite a 22-7 overall record, they have only one win against a certain NCAA Tournament team (Wisconsin), while they have a couple of iffy losses (Drake and Illinois State). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will drop them out of the Top 40. If the season ended now I think they'd be an NCAA Tournament team, but with very little room to spare. I think they need to win their final two regular season games (including a finale against Wichita State) to be confident of an at-large bid. If they split their final two games then they will enter Arch Madness with work left to do. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at Bradley.

St. Mary's should move into the Top 25 in the Pomeroy ratings and isn't far behind the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but would have fallen out of the Sagarin ELO_SCORE Top 50 if they'd lost here. Why? The fact that they entered this game 0-2 against the RPI Top 50, with their only "quality" wins coming over BYU. This gives them their nicest scalp of the season, and also moves them to 24-5 overall. If they can win their final two games (at Pepperdine, vs Santa Clara) to get to 26-5, then they should be pretty safe for the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky 70, Missouri 70
This was a win that Kentucky absolutely had to have, and they got it, even if Missouri had more than a few chances to steal the game. Missouri had a chance to set up a final good possession in regulation, but Flip Pressey let the clock run down too far and took a terrible shot. In overtime, we again saw both the "good" and "bad" Pressey. He was attacking the basket and setting up his teammates, but he also had a terrible turnover when he jumped in the air with nowhere to go with the ball, and rushed a dumb three when Missouri was only down 4 points with almost 40 seconds left in overtime. For the game, Pressey had 27 points and 10 assists, though it took 24 shots and also including 4 turnovers. Overall he played well, but he needs to play under more control.

With one minute to go in overtime, Kentucky was only 14-for-26 at the free throw line, but they proceeded to hit eight straight at the line when they needed them. As Ken Pomeroy will tell you, clutch free throw shooting doesn't exist, but Kentucky happened to get good free throw shooting when they needed it.

It was interesting to see that in a game he really needed to have, John Calipari went with a really tight rotation. His five starters all went 35+ minutes, and three of them went 40+. Neither Jarrod Polson or Jon Hood saw much of the floor at all (they combined for 0 points, 0 rebounds and 0 assists in 11 minutes). Willie Cauley-Stein did his best Nerlens Noel impression, blocking 7 shots, while Alex Poythress (21 points on 8-for-10 shooting) and Julius Mays (24 points on 6-for-12 shooting) were both as good as they've looked all season. Missouri's best player was probably Alex Oriakhi - he led all players with 15 total rebounds and 6 offensive rebounds, and also poured in 16 points.

Kentucky moves to 19-8 overall and 10-4 in SEC play, though only 1-4 against the RPI Top 50 (this is that one win). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should move into the Top 30 tomorrow. So they now have a little bit of breathing room between them and the bubble. A 2-2 finish should put them in pretty good shape. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against Mississippi State.

Missouri is 19-8 overall and 8-6 in SEC play, and 7-8 against the RPI Top 100. The biggest stat that is worrying about them is that they are 1-7 in true road games, with the one win coming over a putrid Mississippi State team. So they don't want to end up on the bubble, because that's the kind of stat that could get them left out of the Tournament. For the time being, they should be okay if they can go 2-2 down the stretch. They'll play next on Thursday, at South Carolina.

New Mexico Beats Colorado State, Grabs Control Of Mountain West

#16 New Mexico 91, #22 Colorado State 82
This was the game that Colorado State really had to have to win a share of the Mountain West title, with New Mexico coming into Fort Collins. With this result, New Mexico now moves a full two games clear of Colorado State, with the tiebreak, and with only four games left. Barring a really crazy turn of events, New Mexico will win the Mountain West regular season title. And the thing is, if you take out Kendall Williams from this game, Colorado State was far and away the better team. Colorado State got back to their glass-dominating ways (their last game, against UNLV, was the first time all season that they'd been outrebounded), and they were more effective at scoring in the paint. Colton Iverson had a monster 26 points with 10 offensive rebounds, while Wes Elkmeier and Dorian Green both scored 20+ as well. And Pierce Hornung did Pierce Hornung things, scoring only 2 points but bringing down 7 offensive rebounds.

But that is where Kendall Williams came in. In three seasons at New Mexico, Williams has never scored more than 24 points or hit more than 5 three-pointers in a game. But here? He was 10-for-13 behind the arc and finished with 46 points. The ball practically spewed flames as his shots went toward the basket, like some old NBA Jam character. Colorado State contested most of his shots... there was just nothing they could do.

Having more or less wrapped up the Mountain West regular season title, the question is how high New Mexico's seed can climb. They are 15-4 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is 3rd, but that's a bit ridiculous. Their Sagarin ELO-SCORE was 27th entering today, and should move into the Top 25 after this win. Certainly something like a 4 seed is realistic for them. If they can win the Mountain West tournament then maybe they'll even earn a 3 seed. But I don't think a 2 seed is possible. The Selection Committee will recognize that their RPI is ridiculous. The Lobos will next play on Wednesday, against San Diego State.

Colorado State falls to 8-4 in conference play with this loss, with wins over San Diego State and UNLV, along with a bad loss to Illinois-Chicago. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will drop to around 35th tomorrow. So if the season ended now they'd probably be something like a 9 seed, but they're better than their record. I expect Colorado State to finish strong, and I do still think they're the favorite to win the Mountain West tournament. Their remaining schedule is soft, by Mountain West standards. They'll face Fresno State on Wednesday, followed by a road game at Boise State next Saturday.

North Carolina 76, NC State 65
Television commentators appear to finally be understanding that it's Reggie Bullock, and not James Michael McAdoo, who is the best player on North Carolina. Bullock was the best player on the floor for either team here, with 22 points and 13 rebounds. Marcus Paige also had what probably was the best game of his young career with 14 points and 8 assists. Paige was a big reason why the Tar Heels committed only 9 turnovers the entire game (although McAdoo, still trying to find his game, committed 6 of those). As for NC State, CJ Leslie was completely shut down. Leslie had as many turnovers (6) as points, and had only 4 rebounds. They needed him to step up big to win on the road at North Carolina, and it didn't happen.

North Carolina hasn't locked up an at-large bid yet, but they've certainly pulled themselves clear of the bubble. They are now 9-5 in ACC play with an RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE that are into the Top 20, although a 2-6 record against the RPI Top 50 isn't great. If the Tar Heels go 2-2 or better down the stretch then they should be fine for the NCAA Tournament. That won't be a trivial task, though, with a reasonably difficult schedule. Their next game will be on Thursday, at Clemson.

With this loss, NC State drops to 19-8 overall and 8-6 in ACC play, with wins over Duke, North Carolina and UConn, along with a bad loss to Wake Forest. They are 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be near 25th tomorrow. With a relatively soft schedule, they should be able to lock up an at-large bid with a 3-1 finish. If they go only 2-2 down the stretch and end up 10-8 and then flame out in their opening ACC tournament game, then they might have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma 90, Baylor 76
Refs were calling this game very tight, but Baylor did not adjust properly. Oklahoma attacked the basket and drew a staggering 32 fouls and 45 free throw attempts (Sam Grooms took 17 free throws by himself). But Baylor took more than twice as many three-pointers as Oklahoma (31 vs 14) and ended up with only half as many free throw attempts (21). 29% three-point shooting did them in and cost them the game. Pierre Jackson stands out in particular. He scored 28 points, but it took 23 shots, including 3-for-13 behind the arc. With his ability to beat almost anybody off the dribble and to set up his big men, it's inexcusable that he was just chucking up threes all game. I've talked before about how much more successful Baylor is when Cory Jefferson is getting a lot of shots - he only took 6 shots here.

Baylor is fading fast. They have lost six of eight, and are now 16-11 overall and 7-7 in Big 12 play, and a putrid 8-11 against the RPI Top 200. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely still be inside the Top 40, but if the season ended now they'd probably be an NIT team. Interestingly enough, Baylor's resume is very similar to Iowa, another team I've been talking about a lot lately. Though I think Iowa is better than Baylor, and they're in the better conference, so at this point I think I'd give the narrow edge to Iowa in terms of at-large probability. The only argument for Baylor over Iowa is blind RPI adherence. To make the Tournament, Baylor really needs to find a way to go 3-1 in their final four games. If they go 2-2 then they can still go Dancing if they make some noise in the Big 12 tournament, but it'll be an uphill battle. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at West Virginia.

Oklahoma moves to 18-8 overall and 9-5 in Big 12 play with this win. They have wins over Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor, with potentially iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. They are 8-8 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is going to move up to around 30th tomorrow. Even with just a 2-2 finish down the stretch, Oklahoma should be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Their next game will be at Texas on Wednesday.

Georgetown Leaves The Carrier Dome Victorious

#11 Georgetown 57, #8 Syracuse 46
This could be the last time Georgetown plays at the Carrier Dome for a long time, and they left the building with a very nice victory based on a simple formula: Defense + Otto Porter. Louisville has the best defense in the Big East, but Georgetown is closing fast. They are now allowing only 0.90 PPP in Big East play. The Hoyas lead the Big East in eFG% against (42.0%), and held Syracuse to a 38.0 eFG% here. Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams were both completely bottled up.

Of course, offense has been a problem for Georgetown this season. That's how they ended up with a 37-36 game against Tennessee, a 49-48 game against Marquette and a 46-40 game against Towson. And Georgetown players not named Otto Porter shot 7-for-35 in this game (a 22.9 eFG%). But Otto Porter? He had 33 points on 12-for-19 shooting. It was arguably the best performance by any player in the nation this entire week. And on national television against a premier opponent, this is the type of performance that can vault a player into serious Big East Player of the Year discussion. At this point I'd still give that award to Russ Smith, but Porter has to at least be in the conversation with the way Georgetown is overperforming.

Georgetown now moves into sole possession of first place in the Big East. With an 11-3 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that was 8th even before this win, Georgetown would be a 2 seed if the season ended now. And if they can hang onto that Big East title and sweep the Big East tournament, they'll probably end up with a 1 seed. It's been a pretty remarkable improvement for JTIII's squad. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at UConn.

The odds for a Syacuse 1 seed are getting pretty long, and if the season ended now they'd actually probably be a 3 seed. They are 10-4 in Big East play, with only a 4-4 record against the RPI Top 50. They don't have time to catch their breath before a tough road game at Marquette on Monday, followed by a big home game against Louisville next Saturday. They need to win at least one of those two games to stay alive for a share of the Big East regular season title.

Nebraska 64, Iowa 60
This was a terrible collapse and a terrible loss for Iowa. A total debacle. Iowa led 41-22 early in this game, and was outscored 42-19 the rest of the way. After Nebraska finally fought back to tie the game, Dylan Talley nailed a cold-blooded three with 9.2 seconds to go. Mike Gesell rushed back down the floor and attempted his own three, but missed. Ray Gallegos then hit a free throw to effectively end the game.

The big question for Iowa is just how much the Selection Committee is really going to pay attention to the RPI. Because their RPI stinks (it drops to 89th after this loss), but it mostly stinks because five of their non-conference opponents turned out to be 300+ RPI teams, which is RPI poison. If you look at every other metric, even after this loss, you can make a case for Iowa as an at-large team. They are 6-8 in the best conference in the country, with quality wins (Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa State) that more than balance out a few bad losses (Virginia Tech, Nebraska and Purdue). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is still likely to be very close to 40th when the new numbers come out tomorrow.

I do think that Iowa needs to get to 9-9 in conference play. A sub-.500 conference record and a bad RPI will be tough to overcome. But that means that even if they fall at Indiana next weekend, they can still make the Tournament if they win their other three games, all of which they'll be favored for. If they can get to 9-9 and then win a game in the Big Ten tournament, then they should be in pretty good shape. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against Purdue.

Nebraska continues to improve under Tim Miles, even if their level of talent has to dramatically improve for them to seriously contend in the top half of the Big Ten. They can win ugly games like this where they slow games down, prevent transition offense, and try to grind things out against a midlevel Big Ten team, but they can't yet go toe-to-toe with the big boys. This is their best win of the season, though. Their next game is a brutal one, at Wisconsin on Tuesday.

LSU 97, Alabama 94, 3OT
The amount of mediocre SEC basketball today was like some kind of cosmic joke. Three games went to overtime, with this one going three overtimes and the Tennessee/Texas A&M game going four overtimes. And let's be honest, none of the basketball was good. As I joked on twitter, I wasn't watching SEC basketball so much as I was rubbernecking SEC basketball. To put this basketball in perspective, let me describe to you what LSU did in the third overtime here. They had four turnovers, including one where Shavon Coleman had the ball all by himself with his team up four with under 30 seconds to go and he was going for the exclamation drunk... but dribbled it off his leg out of bounds without a defender within 25 feet. They also had a lane violation on a free throw and, with the game seemingly in hand, committed a foul on a made layup by Trevor Releford. And remember, they did all that in five minutes and outscored Alabama by three points over that stretch. All you can do is shake your head.

Poor Trevor Releford actually had a good game - he scored 36 points on 14-for-18 shooting. But naturally, most of the important shots in the game were instead taken by Rodney Cooper (18 points on 7-for-22 shooting) instead. LSU was led by Johnny O'Bryant, who had 24 points (on 9-for-15 shooting) and 10 rebounds. In a game this close, both teams had any number of chances to win the game, so I won't say that Alabama got outplayed. But I can't say that they played well enough to deserve a win either.

Even after this loss, Alabama is still 10-4 in SEC play. They're almost certainly not going to win at Florida, but a 13-5 finish is still realistic. But even at 13-5, there's still a decent chance that Alabama will not go Dancing. First of all, the SEC stinks. Their best wins have come over Kentucky and Villanova, which are more than balanced out by bad losses to Mercer, Tulane, Auburn, LSU and Dayton. They are 0-3 against the RPI Top 50, with five RPI 100+ losses. The Tide can expect their Sagarin ELO_SCORE to be near 60th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. So they'd definitely be an NIT team if the season ended now. If they can go 13-5 and then win a game in the SEC tournament then that will at least put them in serious consideration for an at-large bid. At that point they'll be at the mercy of the bubble, unless they can really go on a run in the SEC tournament. Their next game will be on Tuesday, against Auburn.

LSU is quietly 16-9 overall and 7-7 in the SEC, but they are only 7-7 against the RPI Top 200 with an RPI 200+ loss, so don't start worrying about their at-large chances yet. They'd have to win their final four regular season games and then make some noise in the SEC tournament to warrant serious at-large attention. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against Arkansas.

Wake Forest Knocks Off Miami

Wake Forest 80, #2 Miami 65
I talked about this game after Miami squeaked by Virginia. The reality is that Miami has not been playing particularly well the past couple of weeks. I think it's the weight of expectations, and the pressure surrounding their big winning streak, more than anything. They might start playing better now that they've finally got that first ACC loss. This loss also helps realign Miami's national media perception with where they really are as a team. The ACC is down this year, and Miami has also been lucky (4 of their 13 ACC wins came by four points or less), so their poll ranking has been going up each week due to typical poll biases, when they're really more like the 10th best team in the country.

Wake Forest shot the ball well here (7-for-12 behind the arc, with a 61.5 eFG%), but what really stood out to me was their post defense. They were very sound in the paint all day, standing straight up with their hands in the air and forcing Miami to take contested shots without fouling. The result was that Miami hit only 39.5% of their two-pointers, and earned only 13 free throw attempts.

Miami is still in the mix for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday, so this loss isn't completely devastating on that front. Winning at Duke next Saturday is now very important. With a win at Duke and then an ACC tournament title then they'll have a good case for a 1 seed. With a loss to Duke then they'll need help to get a 1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney. But regardless, it's hard to see Miami falling below a 2 seed. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against Virginia Tech.

I've talked about the Jeff Bzdelik situation before, and so I don't want to keep repeating myself. You can click here for my recent thoughts on him. His program has been getting better continuously for his three years at the helm, and this is their best win yet. Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings should move into the Top 125 for the first time. As young as his team is, they can only be better next season, which means it's not implausible that the Demon Deacons could actually contend for an at-large bid next season. At 5-9 in ACC play now, they'll go on the road next, to face Florida State on Tuesday.

St. Louis 65, #15 Butler 61
Jim Crews has got St. Louis playing like a prototypical Rick Majerus squad. They take care of the ball, they limit opposition threes, they play tough defense, and just make it very unpleasant to face them. It's the same formula that you are seeing from Wisconsin this season, another team that is overperforming their raw talent level. No matter what type of talent you have on your team, you're almost impossible to beat if you don't turn the ball over and only allow the opponent two-point jumpers. Against VCU's havoc press (19.6 forced turnovers per game), the Billikens only turned the ball over 8 times. Here? Only 4 turnovers. So St. Louis was only 3-for-17 behind the arc, hit only 54% of their free throws and lost the rebounding battle... but still scored a respectable 1.03 PPP.

St. Louis has now won nine straight Atlantic Ten games. Only six teams all season have broken 1 PPP against them, and they now lead the A-10 with 0.91 PPP against in conference play. For the season they are 20th in the nation in raw defensive efficiency (0.88 PPP), 26th in offensive turnover percentage and 24th in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio. Like I said, if you're elite in those three areas, you're going to be tough to beat, whether you can shoot the ball or not.

The computers didn't view this is as a huge upset. Butler has now dropped to 52nd in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. They are not in serious danger of falling to the bubble, though, with a 5-4 record against the RPI Top 50 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is now 37th. They will play at VCU next Saturday, and even with a loss there they should be safe if they can win their final two regular season games (at UMass, vs Xavier). If they lose two of those three final games then they will need to win at least one game in the A-10 tournament just to be sure that they won't have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

St. Louis can lock up the 1 seed in the A-10 tournament with three wins in their final four games. Even two wins in their final four games should lock up an at-large bid. This win pushed their Sagarin ELO_CHESS up to 18th, and they'd have to fall out of the Top 30 to be even plausibly on the bubble. None of their remaining games are easy, though, beginning with St. Joe's on Wednesday and then a road game at George Washington next Saturday.

#21 Memphis 89, Southern Miss 73
This game was a rout, honestly. Memphis finished the first half on a 29-10 run, and never looked back. They led by as many as 23 points in the second half. The Southern Mississippi defense is the slow-paced version of VCU - they force a ton of turnovers, but are pretty putrid if they don't get a turnover. So this season they lead Conference USA in defensive turnover percentage (25.0% in conference play), but are allowing a very mediocre 1.27 PPP on possessions where they do not get a turnover. Memphis was clean enough here, committing only 13 turnovers in 75 possessions. Their ball handlers could get to the basket at will, and they finished with a 59.4 eFG% and 25 assists on 29 made baskets.

Memphis is the poor man's Miami. Like Miami, Memphis has been grinding through a massive winning streak in a conference that is down this season, and is moving up the Top 25 polls through inertia. They have won 18 straight games now, including 13 in conference play, though their wins over Southern Miss have been their only in the streak against an RPI Top 50 foe. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE has climbed up to 25th, though their resume is still vulnerable if they lose a couple of games down the stretch. The Tigers are only 2-3 against the RPI Top 50, and like I said, those two wins came over Southern Miss. They have a key game coming up on Tuesday at Xavier. With a win there then they can easily absorb a loss down the stretch without having to worry about the bubble.

Southern Miss has a nice won/loss record (19-7), conference record (10-3) and RPI (37th), but the reality is that they're not even on the bubble right now. You need to have quality wins to earn an at-large bid, and Southern Miss has yet to beat a team in the RPI Top 80, while they simultaneously have bad losses to Central Florida and New Mexico State. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is sitting near 70th, which is well out of consideration, even for a team with a few quality wins. And unfortunately for them, their only remaining chance for a quality win will likely be against Memphis in a hypothetical Conference USA tournament title game. And so for those reasons, the odds of a Southern Miss at-large bid are awfully small. They'd have to win every remaining game until that CUSA title game, play Memphis really close, and then get a lot of help. Their odds of winning the Conference USA tournament outright are higher than their odds of an at-large bid.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

California Knocks Off Oregon

California 48, #23 Oregon 46
This was an ugly, ugly game. California won this game despite scoring only 0.74 PPP, the worst offensive efficiency of any winning team in Pac-12 play so far this season (Arizona had 0.78 PPP in a 57-53 win over Washington). Oregon actually had 8 more offensive rebounds and 6 fewer turnovers, but just could not hit a shot in the paint. In all they hit only 33% of their two-pointers. The best player for either team was Justin Cobbs, who had 14 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists, and hit the cold blooded game winner with under a second to go.

This result throws the Pac-12 standings into disarray. Oregon was running away with the Pac-12 early in the season, but they've now been dragged into a tie for first with Arizona (though they still own the tiebreaker). And California is now among five teams within one game of first place. California has actually been on a pretty impressive four game winning streak that includes victories over Arizona, UCLA and now Oregon.

Oregon drops to 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 with this loss, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely fall into the 45-50 range. If the season ended now they'd probably be an NCAA Tournament team, but with very little room to spare. If they go 3-1 down the stretch then they should be fine, but if they only go 2-2 then they will have work to do in the Pac-12 tournament. They've got a key home game coming up against Stanford, on Saturday. With a pair of tough road games ahead (Colorado and Utah), they really cannot afford to lose to Stanford at home.

With this win, California moves to 17-9 overall and 6-9 against the RPI Top 100, with those wins from this four game winning streak as well as a second win over Oregon earlier in the season. They have bad losses to Harvard, Washington and Arizona State. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely move into the Top 45 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. If the season ended now they'd be right on the fat part of the bubble. The lack of big wins is a problem, so they've got to go at least 3-1 down the stretch to have a good shot at an at-large bid. They'll likely be favored for all four games, but all four should be close and competitive. The Golden Bears will play next on Saturday, at Oregon State.

UConn 73, Cincinnati 66, OT
This a tough loss for Cincinnati. They dominated the glass and were much more efficient in the paint, but UConn hit 53% of their threes and (perhaps with a little home court influence) got almost three times as many free throw attempts (27 vs 10). Sean Kilpatrick played fairly well here (18 points on 6-for-16 shooting), but he was outdone by Shabazz Napier. Napier hit 6-for-9 behind the arc and scored 27 points, including 11 points in overtime.

There is starting to be talk about Cincinnati on the bubble, but I just don't see it. Their 7-7 Big East record is mediocre, but they are 9-8 against the RPI Top 100 and have a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should remain close to 25th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They have wins over Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Marquette and Oregon, with only two iffy losses (St. John's and Providence). Looking at the bubble, there's just no way that Cincinnati is that close to it right now. They should be in pretty good shape if they go 2-2 down the stretch, which is reasonable considering their remaining schedule. Their next game will be on Sunday, on the road at Notre Dame.

UConn has definitely over-performed this season. Their 8-5 Big East record is certainly better than just about anybody predicted, even if they've been a bit lucky (5-2 in games decided by five points or less, including 4-1 in overtime). If they weren't banned from postseason play, they'd be an NCAA Tournament team (narrowly) if the season ended now. But of course, they are banned from postseason play, and they'll just try to continue playing spoiler. They'll play on the road at DePaul on Saturday before a good opportunity at home against Georgetown on Wednesday.

Temple 82, La Salle 74
This was probably the most important bubble battle of the night. Both of these teams are on the bubble and needed this win badly. Though honestly, the final score makes this game seem a lot closer than it really was. Temple led by as many as 15 in the first half and by 22 in the second half. La Salle closed the game on a 12-4 run to make the final score more respectable. Temple dominated the glass (a 45.4 OR%) and got a really nice game from Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (23 points and 18 rebounds). Khalif Wyatt was actually relatively quiet (17 points on 6-for-14 shooting).

La Salle continues to be a tough bubble team to judge. They had those back-to-back wins over Butler and VCU, but that's basically it for quality wins this season, and they have bad losses to Central Connecticut State, UMass, Xavier and Charlotte, with only a 5-6 record against the RPI Top 100. La Salle's Sagarin ELO_SCORE shouldn't drop significantly from 50th, which is where it was entering today. At 8-4 in conference play, I think they need to go 3-1 down the stretch and then need to win one more game in the Atlantic Ten tournament to feel good about their at-large chances.

Temple is 18-8 overall and 7-5 in A-10 play, with a 7-5 record against the RPI Top 100. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is also going to move very close to 50th with this win, though I still think they'd be narrowly out of the Tournament if the season ended now. Like La Salle, I think they can only afford one more regular season loss, and then need to win at least one game in the A-10 tournament, or else they're going to have to sweat out Selection Sunday. A season finale at home against VCU is a key opportunity for a quality win. Coming up next is a tough road game at Charlotte, on Sunday.

W-3.5 BP68

The biggest change in my new bracket is probably at the top. Indiana is the new clear favorite in the Big Ten, so they move up to the #2 spot overall. Their resume is obviously stronger than Florida's, but I have Indiana at #2 overall simply because their path to winning the Big Ten title is much more difficult. Florida could potentially be a double-digit favorite in every SEC tournament game. And if they sweep the SEC titles, it's extremely unlikely that they won't be a 1 seed. I still think that the Big Ten will likely get a second 1 seed, but at this point I have to give the second top seed to Michigan State. Michigan drops to a 2 seed.

At the bottom of the bracket, I made two changes to the Field of 68. Alabama moves in as the final at-large team, replacing Maryland. Meanwhile, Stony Brook replaces Vermont as the new favorite in the America East.

Only three teams have been eliminated from at-large contention since Sunday: Georgia, Santa Clara and Utah State. That leaves 44 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. Michigan State

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Michigan
2. Miami (Fl)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

3. Syracuse
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Georgetown
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

4. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. Marquette
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
5. Cincinnati

6. New Mexico
6. NC State
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. Butler

7. San Diego State
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Missouri
7. Notre Dame

8. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
8. St. Louis
8. UNLV

9. Baylor
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Illinois
9. Oregon

10. Iowa State
10. UCLA
10. Oklahoma
10. Wichita State

11. Iowa
11. Kentucky
11. Virginia
11. Ole Miss

12. Colorado
12. St. Mary's
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. La Salle
12. Alabama

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Temple, Villanova, Boise State, California, Arizona State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, Saint Joseph's, St. John's, Southern Miss, Akron, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Florida State, Dayton, UMass, Xavier, Providence, Purdue, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Wyoming, Texas A&M

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Richmond, Rutgers, Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, UTEP, Tulane, Detroit, Illinois State, Nevada, USC, Washington, LSU, North Dakota State, New Mexico State

Kansas Escapes Oklahoma State, Regains Control Of Big 12

#9 Kansas 68, #14 Oklahoma State 67, 2OT
This game was not exactly an offensive clinic. These two teams shot a combined 5-for-32 behind the arc, and had nearly twice as many turnovers (25) as assists (15). The two most prominent players in this game both had very poor nights. Marcus Smart finished 2-for-14 from the field, while Ben McLemore was 3-for-12 and absolutely invisible in overtime.

It's not exactly a secret that most basketball analysts have no idea how good players are defensively. Based on the types of players that get a lot of media love for their defense, it tends to be guys who slap the floor a lot and get in their man's face once or twice a game 40 feet from the basket. Steady, efficient defense is just so hard to see if you don't know what you're looking for. And that's why Jeff Withey is, in my opinion, the best defensive player in the nation. Yes, Withey blocks a lot of shots. And yes, Withey anchors the best interior defense in the nation (they lead the nation in 2P% defense). But the stat that stands out most to me about Withey is that he commits only 2.2 fouls per 40 minutes. For somebody as active as he is, who is as large as he is, and who redirects as many shots as he does, that's remarkable. And I bring this up because that ability was on full display on the final play of regulation. The man Withey was guarding set a pick for Marcus Smart as he was trying to set up a final play, but Withey gave a tremendous hedge without fouling, completely destroying the play and forcing Smart to take an off-balance shot from 23 feet instead of whatever Travis Ford had drawn up in the huddle. I care more about a play like that than slapping the floor. But that's just me.

Kansas has somehow been dragged into a competitive Big 12 title race, but with this win they grab back control of their own destiny. They are tied in the standings with Kansas State, but hold the tiebreaker and have a slightly easier remaining schedule. The two tough games for them will be road match-ups with Iowa State and Baylor. The Iowa State game will be up first, on Monday night. Before that, the Jayhawks will face TCU on Saturday.

This loss snaps Oklahoma State's seven game winning streak, and severely damages their hopes of their own regular season Big 12 title. They remain 9-4 in Big 12 play, though, with an 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be narrowly inside the Top 20 tomorrow. They'll be on the road to West Virginia on Saturday, and then TCU next Wednesday.

Iowa State 87, Baylor 82
There's a good chance that both of these teams will go Dancing, but this was a classic bubble battle. Both of these teams needed a win, and a monster game from Pierre Jackson wasn't enough to deliver it to Baylor. Jackson has had some bad games this year, but he was on fire here (30 points on 13-for-19 shooting, with 8 assists). But Isaiah Austin struggled (3-for-11 shooting), as Baylor's front line was surprisingly outplayed by the Iowa State front line. Melvin Ejim and Georges Niang combined for 35 points on 15-for-21 shooting. Niang, by the way, has quietly been one of the best freshmen in the Big 12 this season. Keep an eye on him for the future.

Pop quiz: Name the best offense in the Big 12. Answer: Iowa State. They are scoring 1.10 PPP in conference play, including 1.26 PPP here. This is the fifth time that they have scored more than 1.12 PPP in Big 12 play, and they have won all five games. They are 3-5 when scoring 1.12 PPP or fewer. That makes them 8-5 overall in conference play, with wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor (twice), along with losses to Texas Tech and Texas. The Cyclones are only 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a pair of RPI 100+ losses, but their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should move up to around 40th with this win, and they'd most likely be an NCAA Tournament team if the season ended now. I think they need three more wins to make the NCAA Tournament. If they get to 11-7 then they should be in good shape, as they should be if they go 10-8 while winning at least one Big 12 tournament game. Their next game is on Saturday, against Texas Tech.

Baylor drops to 16-10 overall and 7-6 in conference play with this loss. They have wins over Oklahoma State and Kentucky, along with bad losses to Charleston and Northwestern. The Bears are a poor 2-8 against the RPI Top 50. So with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be close to 30th when the new numbers come out tomorrow, Baylor would still be an NCAA Tournament team if the season ended now, but they are getting very close to the bubble. Considering their remaining schedule, they need to go at least 3-2 in their final five games or they'll be in trouble heading into the Big 12 tournament.

UNLV 61, #22 Colorado State 59
Colorado State has had a bad habit this year of falling behind early in games, but they are just awfully hard to put away late. Once again they came back and played really well in a second half. What stood out to me in the final minute of this game, though, was rebounding. Colorado State is probably the best rebounding team in the nation - they lead in the nation in DR% and are second in the nation in OR% - yet they allowed UNLV to get the final four rebounds of this game, including a massive offensive put back by Bryce DeJean-Jones to tie the game up with just over a minute to go. After getting the ball back, Anthony Marshall drove and hit a short jumper to put UNLV up by two with around nine seconds left. Colorado State attacked immediately, getting a wide open three pointer for Daniel Bejarano that just happened to miss. It's a game of inches, after all.

That rebounding in the final minute really wasn't that atypical for this game. The reality was that UNLV managed to win the rebounding battle (a 34.5 OR% compared to a 25.7 OR% for Colorado State). To put Colorado State's normal rebounding dominance in perspective, this was the first time all season that Colorado State has been out-rebounded. UNLV also had 10 blocks (Khem Birch had 6 by himself), while Colorado State had none. They obviously had every chance to win this game, but in general it's going to be hard for Colorado State to win when their front court doesn't outplay their opponent's front court.

This result is a boon for New Mexico. They are now a full game clear of Colorado State atop the Mountain West. Colorado State is now 8-3 in conference play, and also 9-4 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be in the low-to-mid 30s. So they do look fairly safe for an at-large bid. If they're going to make a run at that Mountain West regular season title, it needs to happen on Saturday, when New Mexico comes to Fort Collins.

UNLV has had two straight important home wins to bounce back to 7-5 in Mountain West play. They have wins over Iowa State, New Mexico, San Diego State (twice) and now Colorado State, along with bad losses to Fresno State and Air Force. This win will move their Sagarin ELO_SCORE back into the Top 40, which means that a 2-2 finish should still leave them in good position for an at-large bid. If they can win three of their final four games then they'll probably lock up that at-large bid prior to tipping off the Mountain West tournament. Their next game will at Wyoming on Saturday.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Ole Miss Falls To South Carolina

South Carolina 63, Ole Miss 62
The season continues to fall apart for the Rebels. After a 6-0 start to SEC play, they have lost five of seven and are on a high speed route right out of the NCAA Tournament. Marshall Henderson had another bad game, hitting 4-for-17 from the field for only 11 points - no matter how cold he is, he keeps chucking up 25 foot fadeaways. Let's recall that writers from major publications were calling him a National Player of the Year candidate... basically just because of a single (albeit awesome) .gif. Still, Ole Miss had plenty of chances to win this game, but they failed to score a single point in the final five minutes. They missed three shots in the final 15 seconds alone.

Despite being ranked as high as 16th in the polls this year, the reality is that they got there because of a gaudy won/loss record (17-2 at one point), and not because of quality wins. Their non-conference schedule was a joke, and it could come back to haunt them. They have precisely one win all season over an RPI Top 60 team, and that one win was at home against Missouri - not exactly a massive scalp. Recall that the Selection Committee gives the edge to teams that have a some big wins over teams that ran up shiny won/loss records against poor schedules. So even though their Sagarin ELO_SCORE might still be in the Top 50 when the new numbers come out tomorrow, the odds are that Ole Miss would be NIT-bound if the season ended now. To make the Tournament, considering their soft remaining schedule, they really need to win at least four of their five remaining games to get to 12-6. And even then, they'll need to win at least one game in the SEC tournament. Up next is Auburn on Saturday.

This is the best result so far in what has been a pretty bleak season for South Carolina. They are now 3-10 in SEC play, and 13-13 overall. Their remaining schedule is soft, so they could still finish the season over .500. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Georgia.

Boston College 69, Maryland 58
Oh Maryland, my Maryland... following up their massive upset of Duke by falling to Boston College. Just a terrible result in every way. Alex Len finally had his first complete game of the season, dominating the Duke front line for 40 minutes, but he regressed to total invisibility here. Len fouled out with 4 points and 8 rebounds in 27 minutes. The fact that Maryland got creamed by Boston College despite a career night from Logan Aronhalt (7-for-12 behind the arc) off the bench tells you just how poorly the entire Maryland starting unit played. Boston College was led, as usual, by Oliver Hanland (26 points on 9-for-14 shooting).

This loss drops Maryland to 18-8 overall and 6-7 in ACC play, with wins over Duke and NC State, along with bad losses to Florida State (twice) and Boston College. They are now only 3-7 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that has fallen to 57th and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that has fallen to 55th. If the season ended now, they'd probably be an NIT team, and they've got to go at least 3-2 in their final five games to have a good chance for an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament. And realistically, they need to win four of those final five games to avoid entering the ACC tourney with a whole lot of work left to do. Clemson is up next, on Saturday. A key game ahead is a home game against North Carolina on March 6th - that's a game that is going to be close to a pick em in Vegas, and it's one that the Terps will really need to get.

Boston College moves to 4-9 in ACC play with this win, and pushes their Pomeroy rating up to 108th. They're quietly a halfway decent team - better than most people think they are. Considering how young the roster is (their top seven minute earners are all freshmen and sophomores), that's a really good sign for the future. Their next game will be at Duke, on Sunday.

#18 Ohio State 71, Minnesota 45
Coming off an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin, I expected Ohio State to come out in this game fired up. And they're better than Minnesota anyway, and playing at home, so it was reasonable to expect a Buckeyes win here. This game was a rout, though. Coming on the heels of a blowout at Iowa, Minnesota has now had their two worst performances of the season in consecutive games. And certainly they've played poorly in both games. But it's simply ridiculous to judge a team off of their worst game of the season, and Minnesota is overall a very underrated team. Even after this loss, they're likely going to remain in the Top 20 of the Pomeroy ratings.

The Gophers are now 6-8 in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten is brutally deep, and everybody is losing more games than they would in any other league. Overall, Minnesota is 12-8 against the RPI Top 100, which tells you how tough their schedule has been. Their RPI is still 15th, and I expect their Sagarin ELO_SCORE to remain near 20th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. So despite that poor conference record, I still don't understand where the Minnesota bubble talk is coming from. They're still a fairly safe NCAA Tournament team. They'll be favored in three of their final four games, and a 3-1 record will get them to 9-9 and (likely) an NCAA Tournament bid. The key game is coming up next, at home against Indiana on Tuesday. A win there would give them another nice scalp (to go with Wisconsin, Memphis and Iowa) and would probably put the bubble concerns to bed for good.

Ohio State moves to 9-5 in Big Ten play with this win, and stays in contention for a top four seed (and a bye) in the Big Ten tournament. They'll probably need to get to at least 12-6, which makes Sunday's game against Michigan State a must-win. The Buckeyes still have a road game at Indiana to come.

Missouri Shocks Florida

Missouri 63, #5 Florida 60
Florida got out to a quick 18-6 lead, powered by some hot 4-for-6 shooting behind the arc. Knowing that Florida is the significantly better team, you had to figure at that point that they'd cruise to an easy victory. And coming into this game, it made sense that Florida would focus on outside shooting - they tend to shoot a lot of threes and lead the SEC in 3P% in conference play (41%), and Missouri is a team that is not good at preventing threes (10th in the SEC in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio). But paradoxically, it was Florida's obsession with outside shots that did them in. Because after that opening burst, the shots stopped falling. Florida ended up taking 33 of their 54 shots from behind the arc, and after that initial burst hit only 22% of their threes the rest of the game.

The Gators, despite firing brick after brick from behind the three-point line, led for the first 37 minutes of the game. But after Missouri finally took a lead, the game descended into a tight final minute. The Gators missed all three shots that they attempted in the final minute, including a terrible three-pointer with 9 seconds left by Kenny Boynton when they only trailed by one point. It was just a dumb mistake, and it gave Florida their second "We dominated that game... how the heck did we lose!?" game of the season, after that Arizona loss back in December.

The Gators have played three games all season that were close enough in the final minute where one team was intentionally fouling the other. They led for most of the way in all three games... and lost all three games. They have had 22 games this season that have been decided before the final minute, and are 21-1. And that is why, despite this loss, Florida still remains #1 in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. There's simply no question that they are significantly better than their won/loss record. Yet for all their troubles, I do still think that they're safe for a 1 seed in March. They'll have to sweep the SEC regular season and tournament titles, but I expect them to do both. They can basically wrap up the former by beating Alabama in Gainesville on March 2nd, and they'll be heavy favorites to do the latter. There's a good chance that they'll be a double-digit favorite in all three SEC tournament games.

Obviously this is a huge win for Missouri. They move to 8-5 now, with wins over Florida, Illinois, VCU and Ole Miss, along with bad losses to LSU and Texas A&M. They are 8-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is up to 22nd. They should be safe for an at-large bid now (a 3-2 finish down the stretch should lock it up), and are just playing for Tournament seed. They also move within a half game of fourth place in the SEC, which would assure them a bye to the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

Missouri has an important test on Saturday at Kentucky. The Selection Committee historically frowns on teams that don't win games on the road, and Missouri's only true road win this season (they are 1-6 on the road) came against bottom-feeder Mississippi State. Kentucky is a wounded beast right now, and I would expect them to come out playing well. They Gators will play next on Saturday as well, at home against Arkansas.

#2 Miami 54, Virginia 50
I intentionally put my Miami recap right after my Florida recap, because these teams are really polar opposites in terms of luck. Miami is in the midst of a 14 game winning streak, with 13 of those wins coming in the ACC. It's gotten them a bunch of #1 votes in the recent polls, and almost universally considered a near-lock for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yet at the same time, even after this win, the Canes are rated only 10th by Pomeroy and 12th by the Sagarin PREDICTOR.

What do the computers have against Miami? I talked above about the fact that Florida has gone 21-1 in blowouts and 0-3 in games that have come down to the final minute. Miami has had four games that came down to the final possession during this winning streak (all of which came down to the final possession) and won all of them. In the Pomeroy Luck ratings, Florida is now 330th (the unluckiest of any Top 35 team) and Miami is 41st (the third luckiest of any Top 25 team, behind just Georgetown and Marquette). And so that is why, despite the universal assumption that Miami is far superior to Florida, the Gators would actually be favored in a game at Miami, and would be close to ten point favorites in Gainesville.

You will often see or hear me say that a team is "due for a loss", and I've included Miami in that group. It's not that they should expect to lose their next close game - that would be the bettor's fallacy - but that kids tend to be impacted by the press clippings. Miami is helped by having an experienced team, but they can't help but see all the love they're getting from the media, and to start dreaming of Final Four trips and title runs. That's usually a bad sign for future performance, at least in the short run. They have played three straight close games, and despite upcoming games against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, I wouldn't be truly shocked if they lost either game. Like I said, they're due. But even if they do lose to one of these teams and then also fall to Duke, they will still be in decent shape for a 1 seed. What is going to impact that more than anything is the ACC tournament. Win the ACC tournament and their chances for a 1 seed will be good. Fall in the ACC tournament and it's likely that they'll fall to a 2 seed.

Virginia now drops to 1-4 in games decided by five points or less. I've gone through their resume many times before, and just about everybody who follows college hoops knows how bizarre it is. But they remain 37th in the Sagarin ELO_SCORE, and at 8-5 still have a good chance of getting to 12-6 in ACC play when you consider their remaining schedule. A 12-6 finish and a win in an ACC tournament game will probably get them into the NCAA Tournament. Their most important game remaining is, obviously, a home game with Duke coming up in a little more than a week. Before they get to that game, they'll face Georgia Tech on Sunday.

St. Louis 76, #24 VCU 62
I've talked many times about how the reason I am picking VCU to beat Butler for the Atlantic Ten tournament title is because I think VCU is Butler's kryptonite. Their pressure defense just matches up perfectly with a Butler team whose glaring weakness is point guard play and ball control. But VCU's kryptonite? It would be hard to draw up one better than St. Louis.

VCU's defense is good, but it's only good because they force so many turnovers. They lead the nation in defensive turnover percentage, forcing turnovers on an amazing 29% of possessions. But if they don't get that turnover? Their half court defense is actually fairly porous. They are 14th in the Atlantic Ten in eFG% against (51.7%), and on possessions where they do not get a turnover they are allowing a staggering 1.30 PPP. Saint Louis? They take their time and take care of the ball, and have a backcourt full of players that will not lose their cool against VCU havoc. And on the other end of the floor? VCU's biggest offensive problem is outside shooting, but St. Louis is third best in the Atlantic Ten at 2P% defense in conference play.

VCU's offense was okay here, but their defense was routed, as you'd expect. The Billikens committed only eight turnovers all game (VCU has forced 19.6 per game on average this season), and on non-turnover possessions scored 1.58 PPP. Jordair Jett led St. Louis with 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting. Dwayne Evans had 14 points with 8 rebounds. Juvonte Reddic had a big day for VCU (19 points and 7 offensive rebounds), but he didn't get a whole lot of help from his teammates.

St. Louis moves into first place in the Atlantic Ten with this win, a half game clear of Butler and VCU. They are also 20-5 overall and 8-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is up to 23rd. They have a tough remaining schedule, but even a 3-2 finish (to get to 12-4) should be sufficient for an at-large bid. VCU falls to 21-6, with only a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that has slid to 39th. Don't be surprised if you start hearing "Hey, VCU might be a bubble team, you guys" articles over the next couple of weeks, though I still expect them to make the Tournament. In what is kind of a big game of rock, paper, scissors, VCU will dream about Butler taking out St. Louis in a hypothetical A-10 tournament semifinal. Certainly, I can't expect VCU will want anything to do with St. Louis any time soon.

VCU's next game will be on Saturday, at Xavier. St. Louis will be on the road to face Butler on Friday.