Sunday, February 28, 2016

W-2 BP68

This is my final bracket projection before conference tournaments kick off. The season goes by so fast, doesn't it?

One note as we head into conference tournament season is that there will be plenty of upsets, and that makes projecting the 13-16 seeds always so difficult. If I have a team projected as a 15 seed, for example, the odds are that enough 12-14 seeds will get knocked off in their conference tournaments for that projected 15 seed to slide up to a 14 seed. The hard part is trying to guess which teams will get knocked off. In reality, there's just a lot of randomness that is impossible to predict in one-and-done conference tournaments.

One thing to watch over the next couple of weeks is whether the bubble expands and becomes chaotic. Quite a few teams that we thought were safe for at-large bids a couple of weeks ago are suddenly in a little bit of trouble (Providence, USC, Michigan, Florida, and South Carolina). There is certainly more parity this season than this season, and it could lead to a wild final few days before Selection Sunday.

In this bracket projection, however, I am not changing my projected at-large teams. The one change is in the Big South, where Coastal Carolina replaces UNC-Asheville as the favorite to take the auto-bid.

In addition, here were 5 more teams eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: Evansville, Kansas State, Nebraska, Tennessee, and William & Mary. That leaves just 30 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. Miami-Florida

3. West Virginia
3. Duke
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

4. Oregon
4. Iowa
4. Utah
4. Maryland

5. Iowa State
5. Indiana
5. Purdue
5. Baylor

6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Texas
6. Texas A&M
6. California

7. UCONN (AAC)
7. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
7. Saint Joseph's

8. Notre Dame
8. Seton Hall
8. Texas Tech
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

9. Pittsburgh
9. Cincinnati
9. USC
9. Providence

10. St. Bonaventure
10. Syracuse
10. VCU
10. Michigan

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Florida
11. Saint Mary's
11. Vanderbilt
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. Tulsa
12. South Carolina
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

13. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Butler, Oregon State, Alabama, LSU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Florida State, Ohio State, Washington

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Creighton, Princeton, Stanford

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Georgetown, Marquette, Northwestern, Penn State, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, Boise State, Arizona State, UCLA, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, BYU

Thursday, February 25, 2016

W-2.5 BP68

More than most weeks, there was a lot of movement near the top of the bracket. Xavier is moving into serious contention for a 1 seed, while Arizona and Iowa suffered significant upsets. The battle for 3 and 4 seeds is also awfully tight.

At the bottom of the bracket, the bubble has gotten a little bit tougher over the past few days. I did finally feel the need to drop LSU out, and replaced them with Vanderbilt, but there are significantly fewer at-large bids up for grabs. Every team I have listed as an 8 seed or better looks reasonably safe for the NCAA Tournament at this point. If the season ended now, there would only be five or six at-large spots legitimately contested.

There were 7 more teams eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Illinois, Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, NC State, Ohio, and Rhode Island. That leaves just 35 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

3. Iowa
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Miami-Florida
4. Duke
4. Oregon
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Utah
5. Iowa State
5. Indiana
5. Baylor

6. Purdue
6. Texas A&M
6. California
6. Texas

7. USC
7. UCONN (AAC)
7. Colorado
7. Wisconsin

8. Notre Dame
8. Saint Joseph's
8. Seton Hall
8. Texas Tech

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Florida
9. Pittsburgh
9. Cincinnati

10. Syracuse
10. Providence
10. Michigan
10. St. Bonaventure

11. VCU
11. South Carolina
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Saint Mary's
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. Tulsa
12. Vanderbilt
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

13. STONY BROOK (AMEICA EAST)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Butler, Oregon State, Alabama, LSU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Florida State, Ohio State, Washington, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Davidson, Creighton, Princeton, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Marquette, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, William & Mary, Evansville, Boise State, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee

Sunday, February 21, 2016

W-3 BP68

The LSU at-large case continues to be one of the strangest at-large cases we've ever seen, and it's hard to really know what to do with them.

The media is constantly trying to advance the argument that the Selection Committee ignores games that involve injured players (or even the suspended Jim Boeheim), in large part because the Selection Committee says in public that they do so. But if there's one rule for understanding the Selection process it's to ignore everything the Selection Committee says in public. There simply is no evidence of them doing it.

That said, we do know that more recent games matter significantly more than early season games. They have always weighed recent action as more meaningful. If LSU can get to 12-6 in SEC play, does the Selection Committee really keep that out, regardless of their non-conference struggles? And if you wanted to argue that, if it comes down to it, the Selection Committee might prefer a blue chip name like Ben Simmons over a relatively anonymous team like Tulsa? It's hard to say that they won't do that.

So for now, LSU is clinging onto the last projected spot in my bracket below. That means that their odds of getting in are still below 50%, but I'm not ready to slide in a team like Alabama.

There was still one change to the Field of 68 since Wednesday, with Tulsa moving in, replacing Florida State. Also, 9 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Illinois State, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Southern Illinois, and UT-Arlington. That leaves just 42 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Xavier
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Miami-Florida
4. Duke
4. Oregon
4. Iowa State

5. Baylor
5. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Purdue
5. Texas A&M

6. USC
6. Indiana
6. Utah
6. Texas

7. Notre Dame
7. California
7. Florida
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. Saint Joseph's
8. VCU
8. Seton Hall
8. Wisconsin

9. Colorado
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Texas Tech
9. Pittsburgh

10. Providence
10. Michigan
10. Syracuse
10. Cincinnati

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. South Carolina
11. Saint Mary's
11. St. Bonaventure
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. Tulsa
12. LSU
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
13. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Florida State, George Washington, Butler, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Clemson, Creighton, Ohio State, Oregon State, Washington, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Davidson, Princeton, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Georgetown, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Hofstra, William & Mary, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Evansville, Boise State, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Thursday, February 18, 2016

W-3.5 BP68

A few days ago, the story was the strengthening of the bubble. But the past few days? The story has been the opposite. LSU, Vanderbilt, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, and other potential bubble teams all suffered brutal losses.

The strength of the bubble will continue to ebb and flow throughout the final few weeks, of course, and we could always see some bids stolen during Championship Week. We still have a long way to go.

There was just one change to the projected Field of 68 since Saturday: Texas Tech moves in, replacing Vanderbilt.

Only three teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday (Duquesne, Northern Iowa, and TCU), leaving 51 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. Quite a few more will be eliminated over the next few days.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Xavier
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Miami-Florida
4. Oregon
4. Duke
4. Iowa State

5. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Purdue
5. Baylor
5. Texas A&M

6. Texas
6. USC
6. Indiana
6. Utah

7. Saint Joseph's
7. Notre Dame
7. Florida
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. California
8. VCU
8. Seton Hall
8. Wisconsin

9. Colorado
9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Syracuse
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

10. Providence
10. Pittsburgh
10. Texas Tech
10. Michigan

11. South Carolina
11. Cincinnati
11. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
11. LSU
11. Saint Mary's

12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)
12. Florida State
12. Saint Bonaventure
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, George Washington, Butler, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Clemson, Creighton, Ohio State, Oregon State, Washington, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Temple, Davidson, Georgetown, Kansas State, Princeton, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Memphis, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Hofstra, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Evansville, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, UT-Arlington

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

What The Saint Mary's Fade Says About Projecting The Future

Randy Bennett has done an incredible job with Saint Mary's this season.
Saint Mary's had a reasonably strong team last season. They ended up coming up short of the NCAA Tournament, but they earned a 4 seed to the NIT. Still, with five senior starters, they were expected to have a severe rebuilding season in 2015-16. They were picked just 4th in the preseason WCC poll. Yet by late January they were 18-2, and were picked as an NCAA Tournament team in every single bracket in the Bracket Matrix, with a projected 9 seed.

Unfortunately for Saint Mary's, they've come back to Earth since. After climbing to 16th in the Pomeroy ratings after their January 7th rout of Loyola-Marymount, they are just 43rd now. They have also lost 3 of 9 games, after a 14-1 start. They have also slipped out of the Bracket Matrix.

It is the rise of Saint Mary's, and then their decline, which tells us something interesting not just about 2015-16 Saint Mary's, but about future projections in general.

Back when Saint Mary's was at their peak, I suggested two reasons that they might regress: Their lack of road games, and the fact that they were leading the nation in 3P% and eFG% (see here and here). We can't really examine the first reason in any quantitative way, but we can examine the latter. In mid-January, Saint Mary's was leading the nation in 3P% shooting. What have they done since? A sharp decline:
Note that the four yellow circles mark their four losses. Also note that the game against non-Division I San Francisco State has been excluded.

What has this decline in outside shooting done to the Saint Mary's offense? A lot. Below I have plotted adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies by game. Offense is in blue and defense is in red. To define terms: an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.2 means that they scored 20% more PPP than their opponent allowed during the season (using Pomeroy adjusted efficiencies). An adjusted defensive efficiency of 1.1 means that they allowed 10% fewer PPP than their opponent scored during the season.
In the above chart, I have fit a straight line to the data to look for a trend during the season. Their fitted adjusted defensive efficiency has declined from 1.15 to 1.07 over the course of the season, a 7% decrease. In contrast, their adjusted offensive efficiency has declined from 1.31 to 1.00, a 24% decrease.

How bad has the shooting slump been which caused this decline in offense, and how concentrated has it been in three-point shooting? Well, we can break the season in half: The 14 Division I games prior to them hitting their season-high Pomeroy rating (all games up to an including the Loyola-Marymount game on January 7th) and the 9 games since.

During the 14 games of the Saint Mary's rise, they hit 47.1% of their threes, 58.8% of their twos, and 69.7% at the line. During the 9 games of their decline, they've hit 35.6% of their threes, 52.3% of their twos, and 69.1% of their free throws. That comes out to a 1% decline in FT shooting, an 11% decline in 2P% shooting, and a 24% decline in 3P% shooting, perfectly in line with their 24% offensive efficiency decline.

-----------------------------------------------

The data is clear: Saint Mary's shot atypically well in the first half of the season, and that shooting has regressed to the mean ever since.

What does this say about projections? It says that "luck" and randomness do not just apply to stats primarily out of control of a team, such as winning percentage in close games, FT% defense and 3P% defense. Even when something is a clear skill, and three-point shooting is clearly a skill, there is still random variance in performance.

In other words, when Saint Mary's was shooting 47.1% of their threes 14 games into the season, it did not mean that they were a true 47% three-point shooting team. They were probably something like a 37% or 39% true three-point shooting team that had some good shooting luck over a 14 game stretch.

Statistically, fans generally misuse P-values in this context. For example, let's say that I argued that Saint Mary's was a true 39% three-point shooting team. The Gaels shot 40%+ in each of their ten first games. A fan might argue (and I have gotten this argument from fans of teams before) that the odds of a team outdoing their true three-point percentage ten games in a row is (0.5)^10, or 1024-to-1. Seems highly unlikely! But that's an improper use of P-values. Statistically, one would expect some of the 351 Division I teams to shoot above their average in 10 straight games at some point during the season. If you flip a quarter enough times, it is inevitable that you will eventually get 10 heads in a row, and if you have enough teams then you will eventually have one shoot above average in ten games in a row.

How does one quantify this effect? It's hard. How does one say on January 7th what the true Saint Mary's 3P% should have been? You really can't. But from a qualitative perspective, we can argue that a team leading the nation in 3P%, which was well above any shooting levels in recent seasons, is likely to regress over the rest of the season. In the end, it's hard to ever be much more precise than that.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

W-4 BP68

The season is in crunch time right now. We're down to the final two full weeks of regular season basketball before he start the conference tournaments.

The theme of this week was a strengthening of the bubble. The media likes to spend every February and March whining about how weak the bubble looks (before ironically bemoaning the teams that got robbed on Selection Sunday), but most years, by definition, the bubble is "average". It's too early to say what it will be this season, but over the past few days we saw quite a few bubble teams pick up massive wins to firm up their place in the Field of 68.

In all, there were two changes to the Field of 68 since Wednesday night. Saint Bonaventure moved in as an at-large team, replacing Butler. And UNC-Wilmington moved in as the Colonial favorite, replacing William & Mary.

As for the full bubble, 11 teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday night: Albany, Auburn, Buffalo, Charleston, Colorado State, Fresno State, James Madison, Kent State, Louisiana Lafayette, Oakland, and Old Dominion. That leaves just 54 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. In contrast, when I started the full bubble four weeks ago, we had 119 teams still with a chance, meaning that more than half of those teams have since been eliminated.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Oregon
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Miami-Florida
4. Purdue

5. Iowa State
5. Duke
5. Texas A&M
5. USC

6. Baylor
6. Texas
6. Indiana
6. Utah

7. Notre Dame
7. Florida
7. Saint Joseph's
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. California
8. Syracuse
8. VCU
8. Providence

9. Wisconsin
9. Seton Hall
9. South Carolina
9. Pittsburgh

10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
10. Michigan
10. Colorado

11. LSU
11. Florida State
11. Saint Mary's
11. Cincinnati
11. MONMOUTH (MAAC)

12. Vanderbilt
12. Saint Bonaventure
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Butler, Texas Tech

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Kansas State, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Temple, Davidson, Northwestern, Princeton, Stanford, UCLA, Alabama, Arkansas,

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Memphis, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Hofstra, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Evansville, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, UT-Arlington

Thursday, February 11, 2016

W-4.5 BP68

There was just one change to the projected Field of 68 over the last few days, with Wisconsin replacing George Washington. However, we are getting much better clarity about the bubble. Every team listed as a projected 7 seed or better is awfully safe for an at-large bid, while the number of teams outside the bracket with a realistic shot continues to dwindle.

In all, 10 teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Central Florida, Central Michigan, DePaul, East Carolina, Fordham, Indiana State, Mercer, Siena, Wake Forest, and Washington State. That leaves 65 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. West Virginia

4. Oregon
4. Purdue
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Texas A&M

5. Miami-Florida
5. Iowa State
5. USC
5. Baylor

6. Texas
6. Duke
6. Indiana
6. Utah

7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Florida
7. Notre Dame
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. Saint Joseph's
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Saint Mary's
8. VCU

9. Colorado
9. Michigan
9. Florida State
9. Syracuse

10. Providence
10. Seton Hall
10. South Carolina
10. Pittsburgh

11. Butler
11. Cincinnati
11. California
11. Vanderbilt
11. Wisconsin
11. LSU

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Washington

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Oregon State, UCLA, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Temple, Georgia Tech, Davidson, Rhode Island,  Northwestern, UC-Irvine, UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Evansville, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Memphis, Albany, NC State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Long Beach State, Charleston, Hofstra, James Madison, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Oakland, Buffalo, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Louisiana Lafayette, UT-Arlington

Sunday, February 07, 2016

W-5 BP68

The big news this week was Louisville self-imposing a postseason ban. With them and SMU, two potential Final Four teams, out of the mix, the bubble gets significantly softer. The beneficiary this week was George Washington, who knocked off VCU and slid in as a projected at-large team.

Two auto-bids changed this week as well. William & Mary replaces Hofstra as the Colonial favorite, while UNC-Asheville replaces High Point as the Big South favorite.

Meanwhile, we're starting to eliminate the dregs of the major conferences. 14 teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Boston College, Georgia State, IPFW, Marshall, UNLV, Northern Illinois, Pepperdine, Rutgers, St. John's, Saint Louis, Texas A&M-CC, Towson, Utah State, and Weber State. That leaves 75 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized as the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. West Virginia

4. Texas A&M
4. Oregon
4. Purdue
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Iowa State
5. Miami-Florida
5. USC
5. Baylor

6. Texas
6. Duke
6. Providence
6. Indiana

7. Utah
7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Florida
7. Notre Dame

8. Michigan
8. UCONN (AAC)
8. Seton Hall
8. GONZAGA (WCC)

9. Saint Mary's
9. VCU
9. Saint Joseph's
9. Florida State

10. Colorado
10. Pittsburgh
10. Syracuse
10. Cincinnati

11. South Carolina
11. Butler
11. Vanderbilt
11. LSU
11. California
11. George Washington

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
St. Bonaventure, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Washington

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Evansville, Oregon State, UCLA, Arkansas, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Houston, Memphis, Temple, Georgia Tech, Davidson, Rhode Island, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Boise State, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, East Carolina, Albany, NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Duquesne, Fordham, Richmond, DePaul, Marquette, Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Long Beach State, Charleston, James Madison, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Oakland, Siena, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mercer, Louisiana Lafayette, UT-Arlington

Friday, February 05, 2016

A New Job, A New City, And The Future Of My Blog

Instead of a Morning News post this morning, I have a life update that is going to impact the future of this blog, which I have worked on for close to ten years now.

I have accepted a new job. It's an exciting opportunity, but it is also a job that is going to mean more working into late nights, and more working on weekends. I will be moving to a new city, which is going to take up a large chunk of the next three weeks of my life, and even after that is done I simply will not be able to devote the same time to my blog that I could before.

This blog will continue on. I still have a passion for college basketball and analytics, and will continue to write. I'll continue to make snarky jokes on twitter (though that will happen less often in the future as well). I might have even more exciting stuff down the road (I'm working on a book, for example). But the current nature of daily blogging simply is no longer realistic.

Please bear with me for the rest of this season. I will do my best to continue putting out bracket projections on time, but other than that I will play it by ear. Morning News posts will have to end, but I will try to do occasional blog posts about individual topics.

The goal long term is to have a different format for this blog that can work with my new job. Namely, weekly blogging, instead of daily blogging. Hopefully I will be able to go more in depth on individual topics.

-----------------------------------------

On a sentimental note, I want to thank all of you for being a part of my blog for so many years. This blog started out as my internet ramblings with no intention for anybody to ever read it. It has been incredible how many great people I have met because of it, and how many friends I have made, even if many of you are just little internet avatars in my brain.

The last ten years have been a blast, and I hope to do this for ten more years, in some form or another. Please bear with me as I make this major change in my life, and I hope to rejoin you on the other side.

Thank you.

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Morning News: Miami Handles Notre Dame, St. Joe's Falls to St. Bonaventure, And UC-Irvine's Buzzer Beater

How many people knew who Anthony Lawrence was before last night?
Balanced Miami Handles Notre Dame This game wasn't really as close as the final score would suggest. Miami lead by 12 points at halftime and by as many as 20 in the second half. An 18-10 run by Notre Dame in garbage time made the final score more respectable. Miami had five players in double-digits, including freshman Anthony Lawrence, Jr, who had a career-high 18 points despite scoring just 4 total points in the 9 previous games since Christmas.

Realistically, Miami is just playing to slide up or down a seed line or two in the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame's situation is more interesting, since they are far from an NCAA Tournament lock. The Irish are now 6-4 in ACC play with wins over Iowa and Duke to go with iffy losses to Alabama and Monmouth. With an RPI that is 34th they have a Tournament resume at the moment, but will be in trouble if they can't get to 10-8 in ACC play. They have crucial home games against North Carolina and Louisville the next two Saturdays. A win in one or both would make things a lot safer.

St. Joseph's Falls To St. Bonaventure In the Battle of the Saints, the Bonnies were led by a monster 31 points from Jaylen Adams, including 6-for-12 beyond the arc. St. Joe's was too satisfied to launch threes, and scored just 22 points in the paint. But this St. Joe's team has been hard to figure out. The computers like them, and they came into this game 18-3, but their best win of the season was either their win over Temple or Rhode Island, and they still lack an RPI Top 50victory.

Saint Joe's still has an RPI that is 39th after this loss, but their resume is going to remain awfully soft unless they can beat Dayton in a couple of weeks. If they finish 12-6 or worse in A-10 play, their lack of quality wins is going to make it difficult for them to earn an at-large bid.

What about St. Bonaventure? They're now 14-6 overall and 6-3 in A-10 play, with an RPI that has slid inside the Top 50 for the first time all season up to 46th. The problem is that they lack quality wins. This is their only RPI Top 50 victory and they are 3-6 against the RPI Top 100. If they can get to 12-6 in A-10 play they'll get themselves into consideration on Selection Sunday, but they'll need an overwhelming W/L record and RPI to overcome the soft strength of schedule.

UC-Irvine Stays Alive On A Buzzer Beater On a quiet night, the most interesting finish to a game came in the Big West, where 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye was involved in a beautiful play to finish regulation, which sent the game to overtime:
UC-Irvine went on to win in overtime, and continues to keep pace with Hawaii in what should be a fun two-team race in the Big West Conference. Both teams are good enough to earn 12 or 13 seeds in March and to be scary Round of 64 opponents. The regular season title will likely come down to their two head-to-head match-ups. The game at Hawaii is up next, a week from today. They will then make the return trip to Irvine on February 20th.

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Morning News: Tennessee Stuns Kentuky, Providence Loses To... DePaul?, Iowa State Goes Down At Home, And More

This was the look plastered on John Calipari's face the entire second half.
Tennessee Stuns Kentucky Remember that "Rick Barnes teams always collapse in the second half" narrative that was everywhere when Tennessee was falling apart to TCU on Saturday? Well that was fun while it lasted. Kentucky led this game by 21 points before Tennessee came back with a 43-20 run. Kentucky fans did not enjoy the reffing, and there certainly were quite a few dicey calls that went Tennessee's way, but nothing too far out of the ordinary for a home team. What made those fouls hurt more was that Tennessee wasn't missing their free throws: they hit 30 of 34 (88%).

This is a clunker for Kentucky, but it comes after a series of strong performances, so it's not worth panicking too much. They just took Kansas to overtime at Allen Fieldhouse, of course, and also had a double digit win at Arkansas. They're still a borderline Top 25 team with the potential to be improved in March.

Tennessee isn't going to the NCAA Tournament or the NIT this season, but they're showing nice improvement under Rick Barnes. He needs to upgrade the level of talent, but they will get back to the NCAA Tournament sooner rather than later.

Providence Loses To... DePaul? Despite what you may think about DePaul, and despite the fact that Providence came in ranked 11th in both human polls, this wasn't really the huge upset that it's being portrayed. Vegas had Providence as 8 point favorites, but Pomeroy only had it at 6. Then, throw in the fact that Ben Bentil was hobbled and was mostly ineffective (6 points and 0 rebounds in 14 minutes), and suddenly this is barely looking like a surprise at all. With Bentil out, DePaul was able to have their way on the glass. They rebounded 55% of their missed shots compared to just 23% for Providence. On top of that, Kris Dunn played poorly (5-for-20 from the field).

Providence's luck in close games has been well-documented. Even after losing this game, they are still 8-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer. But their resume is starting to fade a bit. They still have just two RPI Top 50 victories (compared to two RPI 100+ losses), and their RPI has slipped to 28th. It's not inconceivable that they slide to an NCAA Tournament seed in the 7-10 range. Obviously the health of Bentil is a serious concern, and we should know more about that today or tomorrow.

Iowa State Goes Down At Home West Virginia's propensity for forcing turnovers is well-known, but they also lead the entire nation in offensive rebounding rate. It was the latter attribute that won them this game. Iowa State actually had a 21-to-18 advantage in points off turnovers, but West Virginia rebounded 49% of their missed shots and had an 18-to-6 advantage in second chance points. Iowa State also was shaky from the free throw line (58%).

West Virginia is proving this season what they couldn't prove last season: That they can win with a reasonable regularity against elite opponents, and on the road. They are not going to go away in the Big 12 title race. Their home game against Oklahoma on February 20th is their most important remaining game for that chase.

Iowa State drops to 1-4 in Big 12 games decided by six points or fewer. That's why they are just 5-4 in conference play despite outscoring opponents by 0.06 PPP (third best in the Big 12, and only narrowly behind West Virginia's +0.08 PPP). But as strong as the Big 12 is, they still already have 6 wins against the RPI Top 50, and are going to pick up some more. So they are still in line for a strong seed on Selection Sunday.

South Carolina Is In Trouble South Carolina came into this game ranked in the Top 25, for some reason. The reason, presumably, was their 19-2 record. Of course, Arkansas-Little Rock has gone 17-2 against a similar strength of schedule and has a better set of quality wins than South Carolina (the best win the Gamecocks have came over Clemson), So why wasn't UALR ranked? South Carolina was already barely Top 50 in the computers before this loss. South Carolina's offense was ugly here, as it has been throughout most of SEC play. They hit just 31% of their two-pointers (Georgia blocked 9 of those shots), and finished with 0.82 PPP. They are now scoring just 0.99 PPP in conference play, which is only 11th best in the SEC.

South Carolina's resume, considering how soft their schedule is, will basically be a mid-major resume. If they go 11-7 in SEC play they'll be 24-7 overall, but with an RPI close to 50th and with likely only 0 or 1 wins against the RPI Top 50. Realistically, that's not an at-large resume without a strong SEC tournament performance. Now 6-3 in SEC play, they really need to find a way to get to 12-6.

This win pushes Georgia to 5-4 in SEC play, and it is also their first win against an RPI Top 50 opponent. They are probably not heading to the NCAA Tournament, but they'll at least have to be in the discussion if they can get to 11-7 or better.

Indiana Annihilates Michigan Indiana went on a 28-0 run at one point in this game, and led by approximately 25 points for most of the second half. And Indiana did this despite below average jump shooting. They simply faced a non-existent Michigan defense. The Hoosiers hit 64% of their two-pointers and had a 44-to-30 advantage in paint points. Indiana hit all 11 of their layups. Michigan's defense has been shaky for much of this season, but the 1.19 PPP they allowed here would have even been much worse if Indiana had gotten hot behind the arc.

Caris LeVert should be back soon, and Michigan will play better than this another day. The real story here is Indiana looking dominant again after back-to-back dicey performances against Wisconsin and Minnesota. I'm still skeptical that they can seriously contend for the Big Ten regular season title, but they provided evidence here that they are a true Top 25 team.

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Morning News: Louisville Grabs A Crucial Win, Texas Upsets Baylor, Houston Knocks Off SMU, And Stetson/North Florida

Louisville's interior defense has been fearsome this season.
Louisville Grabs A Crucial Win This game meant much more for Louisville than North Carolina. Rick Pitino had put together a horrible non-conference schedule, and the result was that Louisville picked up zero qualities until mid-January. They need big wins anywhere that they can get them. In contrast, North Carolina came in with an 11-1 record against the RPI Top 100 with four RPI Top 50 victories. The Tar Heels were 8-0 in ACC play, though against the softest SOS in conference play thus far. This was easily their toughest game of conference play thus far.

North Carolina lost this game, primarily, because they couldn't hit a shot. They finished 3-for-17 on three-pointers. Louisville's paint defense was also excellent, holding the Tar Heels to 10-for-22 on layups and dunks. In all, the Tar Heels scored 0.92 PPP, the first time they've been held below 1 PPP all season long.

This results gives us a real race in the ACC. Louisville is now just a game back of North Carolina with the tiebreak (there will be no Chapel Hill rematch). Virginia is among several teams lingering just a single game further back, and they also have a home game against the Tar Heels remaining. North Carolina's schedule continues to get tougher down the stretch, beginning with a road game at Notre Dame on Saturday.

Texas Upsets Baylor Shaka Smart came in with a significantly different system than Rick Barnes had, so perhaps it's not a shock that it took Texas some time to figure it out. But there's no question that their level of play has improved significantly over the last three to four weeks. Interestingly, there wasn't much "HAVOC" here, as Baylor committed just 11 turnovers. Texas won by physically controlling the paint, blocking 6 shots and holding Baylor to 38% two-point shooting. Texas was also efficient offensively, assisting on all 21 made baskets, and scoring 1.12 PPP.

Any concerns of Texas falling to the NIT are gone for now. They have won 6 of 7 and are now 6-3 in Big 12 play with an RPI up to 16th. Baylor is now 6-3 in Big 12 play as well, though with a softer set of wins than Texas has. Baylor is actually just 5-5 against the RPI Top 100. They're not really in danger of falling to the bubble, but they are in danger of dropping to a lower Tournament seed than their current Top 15 ranking in the polls would suggest. If the season ended now they'd likely be a 6 or 7 seed.

Houston Knocks Off SMU This result isn't anywhere near the same story now that SMU has already lost has a game, but this is still a big upset for a Houston team that has quietly gotten themselves into the mix near the top of the AAC. There's been quite a bit of luck in Houston's rise - they are 5-1 in games decided by six points or fewer or in overtime - but they potentially have a shot to be in contention for an NIT spot.

SMU is in an awkward spot the rest of the season, as they really don't have anything to play for. The AAC regular season title is possible, but that won't motivate the players like the undefeated season did. A lot of their success early in the season came from out-athleting opponents and earning a ton of offensive rebounds and free throws. Those stats have started to fall off now that their schedule is getting more difficult. Expect them to lose a few more times before this season is over.

Stetson Stuns North Florida On a relatively light night for college hoops, it's worth mentioning the upset of the night. North Florida has dominated the Atlantic Sun this season while Stetson was off to a 2-5 start. I couldn't find a Vegas line, but Pomeroy had the line at 19 points, which puts it on par with a 2/15 upset in the NCAA Tournament. North Florida had won 18 straight home games, the tenth longest streak in the nation. For a team that relies heavily on hitting three-pointers, this clunker unsurprisingly involved ice cold shooting (10-for-35 on three-pointers).

In the end, North Florida isn't playing for an at-large bid anyway, so I don't think this loss hurts them too much. They're still the heavy favorites for the Atlantic Sun regular season title. But you never know when a bad loss can cost you a seed line in the NCAA Tournament.

Monday, February 01, 2016

Morning News: Wichita State Locks Up The Missouri Valley, Colorado Beats California, And Boston University's Buzzer Beater

Wichita State is back.
Wichita State Locks Up The Missouri Valley Over the last month, Wichita State has been the team we expected them to be. Unsurprisingly, it took just getting the roster healthy and then a few games for everybody to figure out how to play together. And after some non-conference struggles, they have been downright dominant in Missouri Valley play. They are outscoring opponents by a monster 0.29 PPP in the Valley. Their defense completely locked Evansville out of the paint here, holding them to just 35% two-point shooting and 0.84 PPP.

Wichita State will effectively clinch the Missouri Valley if they beat Southern Illinois at home on Wednesday, a game in which they'll be a double-digit favorite in Vegas. But despite how well they've been playing, and how strong their computer numbers are, they still have just a single RPI Top 50 victory (Utah). As long as they go 16-2 or better in conference play, they should be in good shape on Selection Sunday, but they're still far from a sure thing. Assuming they get into the NCAA Tournament, however, they're going to be one of the scariest 7/8/9 seeds the Tournament has ever seen.

Evansville had a chance to start getting some at-large hype with a win here. Even with the loss here they are a strong 18-5, but their only RPI Top 100 wins have come over Belmont and UC-Irvine, and their RPI is just 77th themselves. With no more chances for RPI Top 100 wins during the regular season, they'd need to go undefeated until Arch Madness to get back into the thick of the bubble mix.

Colorado Holds Off California California actually got out to a 12-3 lead in this game, but a 34-11 run by Colorado blew this one open. This game got ugly down the stretch, as the two teams combined for just six made baskets in the final nine minutes, but Colorado hit enough free throws to hold off the Bears. The absence of star point guard Tyrone Wallace was a factor here, as California had just 7 assists to 15 turnovers. Their offense has been sliding, and is now just 9th in the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency in conference play. They are also dead last in the Pac-12 in offensive turnover rate.

California will have strong computer numbers and a solid number of RPI Top 50 victories if they can get to 9-9 in Pac-12 play. This loss drops them to 4-5 in Pac-12 play, though they have a relatively soft stretch coming up, with three straight home games. Their schedule gets significantly harder after that, but the Bears will hope to have Tyrone Wallace back for at least some of that.

Colorado is now 6-3 in Pac-12 play, though their schedule gets significantly more difficult down the stretch. Next week they have the Oregon road trip, where they'll be happy to escape with a split.

Boston University Tops Lehigh At The Buzzer A battle between two middle-of-the-pack Patriot League teams wouldn't normally get a mention in a Morning News post, but this game had a chaotic, drawn out finish. It ended on one of the uglier buzzer beaters you'll ever see, though I'm sure John Papale doesn't care how ugly it looked. Poor luck Lehigh is now 0-5 in Patriot League games decided by six points or fewer, and that's why they are now 4-5 in conference play despite outscoring opponents by 0.05 PPP.