Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Oklahoma Dropped From List Of Unbeatens

Arkansas 96, #4 Oklahoma 88
This has to be one of the biggest upsets of the season. Oklahoma has played a number of close games, and was due to lose a game, but you wouldn't have thought it would have come against an Arkansas team that is really in a serious rebuilding mode. Then again, maybe the rebuilding mode was completed when Marcus Monk came over from the football team, as they're 3-0 since the wide receiver re-joined the basketball team. Of course, Monk is still coming off the bench, and the real star was freshman Courtney Fortson, who nearly posted a triple-double with 12 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds. Arkansas also played this game the right way, which was to push the tempo to take advantage of Oklahoma's guard play, which is their weakness. Blake Griffin is always going to get his stats (21 points and 13 rebounds here), but they kept him from taking over the game. Their aggressiveness really paid off in fouling out four members of the Oklahoma team, including both of the Griffin brothers. Basically what we learned is that Arkansas at their best is good enough to topple an elite team that is having an off day. With both Mississippi and Mississippi State falling apart, and Alabama and Auburn looking mediocre, Arkansas might be the second best team in the SEC West. But with a high probability of only one Tournament team out of the SEC West, second place won't be good enough.

Illinois 71, #11 Purdue 67, OT
This result itself isn't a huge surprise, as Illinois is a very tough team, and Purdue has not yet been playing like the 11th best team in the land. What's surprising, though, is that they did it without a very good performance from Demetri McCamey, who collected only 10 points and 3 assists. The addition of Alex Legion really helps, as he collected 12 points here in the first game that he has gotten major minutes in after joining the active roster after the winter semester ended. If it wasn't for a tough 2 point loss to a very good Clemson team, Illinois would be 14-0 with a lot of national attention. That one loss still keeps them below the national radar, but more wins like this will make it more difficult to hide. In my opinion, Illinois is good enough to finish as high as third place in the Big Ten, so they're definitely a team to watch for. As for Purdue, they obviously just had an awful shooting day, and their previous losses have come when getting into a lot of foul trouble, but too many excuses eventually turn into a trend. There is a huge difference between sneaking up on everybody (like they did last year), and dealing with huge expectations while they take every team's best shot (like they are this year). This is still a very good Purdue team, but I'm really doubting their chances at winning the Big Ten right now.

Houston 80, UMass 64
I bring up this game not because it represents another loss for UMass, who now drop to 5-7 and needed a lot more than a win over Houston to get back in the at-large discussion, but because it's worth discussing whether Houston should be part of the debate. They are 8-2 with a few quality victories (vs Western Kentucky, at Toledo and here against UMass), but their two losses are highly questionable (that season opening loss to Georgia Southern, plus a home loss against a mediocre Iowa State team). That all said, the computer rankings all tell us that Houston has underperformed, because their two losses were by a combined 6 points, and they have had some very big victories (this demolition over UMass being one of several large margins). So while the RPI has them way out of contention at 154th in the nation (and Sagarin's ELO_CHESS more or less agrees, putting them 99th), Pomeroy has them 50th, and the Sagarin PREDICTOR puts them 49th. In other words, their results so far do not a Tournament resume make. But they are arguably one of the 50 best teams in the nation, and could potentially get some good results later in the season. When trying to predict Tournament brackets this early in the season, it's the predictive numbers that matter more than the small sample size of wins and losses. So Houston still has a chance, but they absolutely have got to have a win over a struggling Mississippi State team on January 3rd, as well as at Arizona on the 24th. After that they need a very gaudy conference record, something like 13-3. Those two out-of-conference wins, along with a 13-3 conference record, would put them 24-5 and most likely in the Tournament. I wouldn't bet on them playing that well, of course, but don't give up on this team. They're better than their record.

UConn No Longer Invincible

#8 Georgetown 74, #2 UConn 63
I don't think anybody expected UConn to go undefeated, so it's not a shocker that they lost a game. I'm sure they'll lose a couple more games this year too, and it's never embarrassing to lose to a Top Ten team. And even in the loss, some of UConn's strengths were on display, specifically their depth. The Huskies kept losing ground with the starters on the floor, but their bench was clearly superior to that of the relatively thinner Hoyas. One problem that I saw which can be fixed is court awareness in regards to rebounding. Too often they seem to expect Hasheem Thabeet to just grab every rebound, and he actually doesn't get too many defensive rebounds because he's always trying to block everything, and attempting to block shots always takes you out of position for the board. When UConn focused on rebounding they were able to dominate the boards, but when they got lazy they gave up a ton of offensive rebounds to a clearly smaller Georgetown team. But concentration can always be improved, so I don't view this as a huge problem. The larger problem was shooting, which has been a problem for UConn for quite a few years now. The shooting percentage doesn't look bad (45% from the field), but half of those made baskets were dunks and layups. They just tend to get in these ruts where they can't hit anything for long periods of time. In the first half of this game, for example, UConn made zero shots from the field in the first 5:29 or the final 5:49. You can't do that against a quality team like Georgetown, which opened up a 9 point lead by the half that they basically sat on the rest of the game. That all said, I still think that UConn is the favorite in the Big East, but it's going to be close. And Georgetown has clearly put themselves right in what I now see as a three-way battle atop the conference (along with Pittsburgh). It should be fun to see how that plays out over the brutal Big East season.

#13 Villanova 62, Temple 45

Despite the final score, Temple actually led most of the way here. But halfway through the second half, Villanova went on a 22-2 run that blew this one wide open. For Temple, this is just another in a string of missed chances. At this point they are pretty far out of the bubble picture, and are going to need to go on quite a run to get back into it. This game meant more for a Villanova team that I still feel is overrated. They are 12-1, but they lack any wins over any BCS conference teams. So they continue to move up the Top 25 each week, but eventually they'll run into reality, since you can't escape tough opponents in the Big East. In fact, I would expect reality to hit tomorrow, when they head to Marquette. Villanova has an excellent shot to make the Tournament and to get a good seed there, but I just can't see them as in the league of UConn, Pitt, Georgetown or even Notre Dame.

Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45
The Memphis offense continues to be dreadfully inefficient, but their pressure defense and rebounding ability is enough to dispatch of a quality team like Cincinnati even when they're struggling to score themselves. Last year's team, of course, was explosive enough on offense that they could run away from teams. But this year's team will win many more games like this, grinding out wins by holding their opponents to poor shooting (26% shooting from the field here for Cincy), and by earning more possessions with offensive boards and turnovers (they took 18 more shots from the field than Cincy here). It's going to be a lot harder to go undefeated in Conference USA this year, but Memphis has done enough in the out-of-conference that they can lose a game or two in conference and still be in competition for something like a 5 seed. For Cincinnati, this isn't a bad loss, but it would have been a very solid win. In my opinion, they are clearly 10th in the Big East pecking order right now (trailing the five mentioned in the last game recap, along with Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville and Marquette), and that's not going to cut it. It's possible that the Big East will be the first conference to get nine teams to the Tournament, but they're not going to get ten.

Legitimizing Wins For WVU, LSU & Stanford

West Virginia 76, #13 Ohio State 48
The fact that West Virginia pulled the upset wasn't a huge surprise (I think that most college basketball analysts would agree with me that despite the ranking disparity, these two teams are pretty even), but the way that the Mountaineers wiped the floor with the Buckeyes was certainly a bit of a shock. To be fair, it was just one of those days when it feels like the rim has a lid on it. Not only did Ohio State shoot a mere 31% from the field (including 2-for-18 from behind the arc), but both B.J. Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale missed half of the game with foul trouble. Despite missing just about all of their key big men with Mullens and Lauderdale on the bench, Ohio State still fought to a draw on the boards, and the other defensive stats (steals, turnovers, personal fouls) were all pretty similar. So it was just one of those bad shooting days. That said, we now get to see how Ohio State responds to a loss. They now slip to 9-1, but I don't think anybody expects them to fall off a cliff because they have played a pretty tough schedule. They have three high quality wins (Notre Dame, Miami (Fl) and Butler), and should end up somewhere between second and fourth in the Big Ten. They should blow through a home game against Iowa tomorrow, but then it's off for two straight tough road games (Minnesota followed by Michigan State). A split of those two games should relieve any anxiety in Columbus. For West Virginia, they break through here with their first victory over a ranked team, legitimizing the 10-2 start to their season. Selection Sunday will be a very stressful game for whichever Big East team ends up ninth in the conference pecking order, so it's very important for WVU to collect as many big wins as possible. They will get a lot of pressure for that eighth spot from quality teams like Villanova, so this win will go a long way.

LSU 64, Washington State 52
This game was pretty far below the national radar, but it was an important contest for two bubble teams. Like how the aforementioned victory over Ohio State was huge for legitimizing West Virginia's gaudy record, this win is huge for legitimizing LSU's highly questionable 10-1 record. The fact is that those first 9 wins were over bad teams, with their one quality opponent (Texas A&M) also representing their one loss. Washington State is not where they have been the past couple of years, but they're still a tough team for anybody to beat. This win won't suddenly turn LSU into any kind of SEC contender, but it will cause college basketball analysts to pay attention. LSU is a legitimate threat for an at-large bid, especially if they can collect a win in one of their two big remaining out-of-conference games (at Utah on January 6th, and at home vs Xavier on the 24th). For Washington State, this only increases the questions about where this team stands. They have no bad losses, but they really have no good wins either. They still retain several of the key players from the highly successful teams the past two years, but they are dreadfully thin. Washington State's success required high intensity defense, and that's really tough to do when it's stretching it to say that they go eight players deep. The fact that they have no bad losses means that they're still firmly in the hunt for an at-large bid, but they're going to have to earn it in conference play, which probably means at least an 11-7 record in the weak Pac-10.

Virginia 88, Georgia Tech 84, OT
Another dominating performance by stud freshman Sylven Landesberg. I really expect him to be a star in the ACC someday if he continues to develop like he has so far this season. Despite Georgia Tech's home court advantage, and their vastly superior size, Virginia just found a way to hang in the game long enough for Tech's atrocious foul shooting (16-for-33 for the game) to drag the Cavaliers back into the game. This will go down as a quality win for Virginia, but it's their first of the season and they've got a very long way to go to get back into serious at-large consideration. The fact is that Georgia Tech played awfully in this one, and they're not one of the better teams in the ACC, and it still took the best performance of Landesberg's collegiate career for Virginia to eke the victory out here. In other words, I'm not too impressed with their chances of finishing too far from the league's basement. For Georgia Tech, I have to say that their starting lineup is plenty good enough to play in the Tournament. But they are extremely thin. In a 45 minute long game in which they scored 84 points, only 5 came from the bench. And their free throw shooting has been a problem all year, as they average 58.6% from the line for the season. They now have four losses, three of which are very questionable (home games against Penn State, Illinois-Chicago and Virginia) to go with at most one quality win (at home over Vanderbilt). I think they need to find a way to go 10-6 in the ACC to make the Tournament, and that's going to be very tough to do when they've possibly blown the easiest game they'll have throughout the entire ACC regular season.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66

Like the West Virginia/Ohio State game, the surprise here is not the victor, but rather the margin of victory. Texas Tech was down 20 points in the opening minutes, and never showed any spark after that. I can't say that I'm extremely impressed with Pat Knight, but I also can't say whether he's had a fair shake as an in-game coach, because he simply doesn't have the talent. I can't point to a single player on that team as a potential star. They typically hustle (although not in this one), but they just don't have the skill to play with an elite team. They need to bring in a go-to scorer and creator. Seasons can always turn around with one big win, but that's something we can re-visit should that unlikely event occur. For Stanford, they still lack any blockbuster wins, but they continue to look solid in beating pretty good teams. They are now 10-0 with wins over Air Force, Northwestern, Colorado and Texas Tech. None of those wins is too impressive by itself, but in combination they make up an impressive set of scalps. Nobody wants to rank this team in the Top 25 because they assume that this team is nothing without the Lopez brothers, and because they lack that elite win, but I don't see how you can ignore this team after their extremely impressive demolition of Tech. But when you play in a BCS conference, you can never hide for long, and they open with a bang when Arizona State comes to town on Friday. I don't think that the game is on television nationally, but those on the west coast should be able to catch this important Pac-10 match-up.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

W-11 BP65

I know that posting has been light, and there are some games from the past few days that I want to talk about, but those will have to come after the BP65. Don't worry about the slow college basketball action, as things will heat up this coming week, when most BCS conference teams will begin conference play. Until then, here's how I see things:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Pittsburgh

3. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Purdue

4. Wake Forest
4. Georgetown
4. Florida
4. Louisville

5. Ohio State
5. Syracuse
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Arizona State

6. Baylor
6. Marquette
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Clemson

7. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Maryland
7. West Virginia
7. Wisconsin

8. Miami (Fl)
8. Michigan
8. Villanova
8. Kansas

9. California
9. Texas A&M
9. Illinois
9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

10. Dayton
10. UNLV
10. Saint Mary's
10. CREIGHTON (MVC)

11. Florida State
11. USC
11. LSU
11. Minnesota

12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. Kentucky
12. Arizona
12. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)

13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Illinois State, Stanford, Washington, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Rhode Island, Temple, Providence, Seton Hall, Iowa, Kansas State, Hofstra, George Mason, UAB, Houston, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State, Arkansas, Mississippi, Western Kentucky

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
Virginia, Virginia Tech, George Washington, St. Joseph's, St. John's, Penn State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, UTEP, East Carolina, Cleveland State, Niagara, Drake, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, Wyoming, Oregon, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, San Francisco, Boise State

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Texas Reaffirms Its Place Atop Big 12

#8 Texas 74, Wisconsin 69
Anybody whose favorite team has ever tried to win in Wisconsin knows how impressive of a victory this is. Bo Ryan loses about one game per year at home, and Texas looked very impressive in stealing a victory here. One thing I don't think a lot of people realize is just how big this Texas team is. They're more than just Dexter Pittman (who played only 8 minutes in this one with foul trouble) on the inside. It will be extremely interesting to watch them bang bodies with Oklahoma, where a football game might just break out. For Wisconsin, this is their third loss, but all have been close losses against elite teams (that 19 point loss to UConn doesn't look close, but it was a 2 point game halfway through the second half before UConn ran up the score in the last few minutes). And Wisconsin got a very lucky draw in the Big Ten regular season. With 11 teams and 18 games, each Big Ten team plays 8 opponents twice, and only two opponents once. For Wisconsin, the two opponents they're only getting once are Michigan State and Ohio State. In other words, they have the easiest regular season schedule of any Big Ten team. Throwing in the fact that they basically never lose home conference games, and it's hard to see Wisconsin doing any worse than 11-7. That will be plenty to assure another Tournament bid.

Arizona 84, Kansas 67

The schizophrenic Arizona Wildcats struck again, bouncing back after the annihilation at UNLV to crush Kansas. The lead was only three points at halftime, but Arizona opened up a lead early in the second half and it was never close after that. I think this game was a bit of a shock for the young Kansas big men, as they got completely blown off the boards by Jordan Hill and the Wildcats. Arizona had as many offensive rebounds (17) as Kansas had defensive rebounds, and that was the difference in this one, as guard play was something of a draw. The thing with this Arizona team is that you just never know which team is going to show up. With this win, along with that win over Gonzaga, Arizona's out-of-conference resume will actually end up pretty good. But with a weak Pac-10, I don't know if 10-8 will be enough. They might need to go 11-7, which means they're going to have to show enough consistency to go on some winning streaks. Only time will tell if they can pull things together. For Kansas, the early excitement from that demolition of Washington a month ago has worn off. They are a talented team, but they don't yet have an identity. While some were originally predicting that this team might contend for a Big 12 title, Texas and Oklahoma have blown by them and will not look back. So the question is whether Kansas can make the Tournament at all, as they currently sit with an 8-3 record that includes zero wins over any likely Tournament teams. Their RPI is currently 123rd, but I wouldn't pay too much attention to that, as there are several teams with out-of-whack RPIs this early in the year. Pomeroy has them 21st, which I think is the pendulum going too far in the other direction. Sagarin seems to have them right in the middle, at 36th in the nation. I trust Sagarin more than the other computer rankings in general, so I'll take that to be a better approximation of where they stand. The good news from Sagarin is also that he puts their ELO_CHESS at 56th, with a PREDICTOR of 14th. In other words, they are underperforming so far, and should improve their won/loss results as the year goes along. Their next four tests are all tough ones: Albany, Tennessee, Siena and Michigan State. All are dangerous foes, and even a 2-2 result would be acceptable.

Stanford 77, Santa Clara 68
I felt like I needed to follow up on this game after previewing it earlier this week. I called this a game that Stanford should win, and that if they wanted to be a Tournament team they needed to win it. And they did take care of business, hanging on to victory here with vastly superior guard play. That doesn't mean that they're suddenly into everybody's bracket because they beat Santa Clara, but simply that we could choose not to take them seriously if they were to be defeated. We have got to take note of the fact that Stanford is now 8-0 and only has two winnable home games between now and the new year (Texas Tech and Hartford). If they're 10-0 heading into that Pac-10 opener versus Arizona State on January 3rd, you can bet that people will start paying attention to this squad. Can a 20-8 Stanford team with a 10-8 Pac-10 record make the Tournament? Maybe. It depends if they collect a big scalp, and if they have a respectable performance in the Pac-10 tournament.

Questions About Xavier & Gonzaga

Butler 74, #12 Xavier 65
Matt Howard finally showed some of his potential, reminding Butler fans why they expected so much of him after his freshman season. Howard led the way with 19 points and 14 rebounds in a game that was also a bit of a coming out show for 6'8" freshman Gordon Hayward (19 points, 10 rebounds). Despite a strong set of games by Cleveland State (and remember that Butler needed a buzzer beater to defeat the Vikings three weeks ago), this win reaffirms their spot as the clear favorites to take the Horizon. And like Davidson, Butler can actually lose a game or two in conference and still earn an at-large if they get knocked out in their conference tournament. For Xavier, this is all a part of their reality check. It was absurd when they were ranked in the Top 10, and they should return to a more realistic ranking next week. They're a very good team, and they're the favorites to repeat their Atlantic Ten title, but they're not quite as good as they were last season. But they should end up with 23-25 wins by the end of the regular season, and that should be plenty for a return trip to the Tournament.

Portland State 77, #7 Gonzaga 70
This is why they don't play the games on paper, and this is why you don't let a dangerous small conference team hang around long enough to start believing they can win. And Portland State is a dangerous team. They have had some nights where they have looked like a Big Sky team (losses to Cal Poly and Hampton), but they also have wins over Rice and Portland. They have no hope of making the Tournament without winning the Big Sky, but they could be a scary first round opponent for somebody. Gonzaga, meanwhile, learned a lesson. They're not good enough to come out flat, even at home, and expect to just win because their uniforms say "Gonzaga". This loss also more or less ends Gonzaga's chances for a 1 seed, as they'd have to go nearly undefeated the rest of the way to have a chance. But even a 3 seed would give them an excellent chance of getting back to the Elite Eight. People forget now, but Gonzaga has not been back to the Elite Eight since that magical run in 1999 that first made the school a household name nationwide.

Illinois 75, Missouri 57
This game was never even close, as Illinois looked extremely impressive in blowing a good Missouri team off the court. Illinois now moves to 11-1 with their only loss a 2-pointer to Clemson. And remember that they still have Alex Legion, the blue chip transfer who is eligible to play next semester. That said, they do need to beat another good team or two before I'm completely convinced that they're for real. Also note that they have a difficult Big Ten schedule, including home-and-homes with Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan and Minnesota. Missouri, meanwhile, drops to 9-2, but their two losses have been against good teams (the other loss came to Xavier). They have wins over USC and California. And speaking of schedules, Missouri only has to play Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor once each. Those are the three Big 12 teams currently ranked, which means that Missouri has a relatively easy route to the 10-6 conference record that would more or less lock up a Tournament bid.

Relief For Clemson

#25 Clemson 91, Miami (Fl) 75
Clemson fans have learned that an 11-0 start is nothing to get too excited about, especially when they're beating up on a bunch of terrible teams (other than a solid win over Illinois, the rest of the wins were over teams that I would qualify as mediocre or bad). The test was going to be whether they could head into the ACC and keep up their winning ways. A 16 point win over a very good Miami team is a very impressive start, especially when Jack McClinton had a pretty good game (20 points on 14 shots from the field) and he also got decent support from the rest of his team (four of his teammates scored 9 points or more). To be fair, the 2006-07 Clemson team did win its first 3 ACC games before collapsing and losing 9 of their final 13, but this year is different in a couple of ways. First of all, those three wins in '06-'07 were close wins over mediocre ACC teams (an average margin of victory of less than 5 points). Nobody can overlook a 16 point win on the road over a team that has spent time in the Top 25, and likely will spend more time there in the future. More importantly, a lot of these guys went through that disaster, and that kind of debacle can only be a maturing process. This is a very experienced Clemson team. Clemson isn't a lock for the Tournament, but I'd be shocked if they missed out. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for Miami, a team that drops to 7-3 and doesn't have any really good wins (the jury is still out on Kentucky, the best team that Miami has beaten). It's important for them to beat a mediocre St. John's team on Saturday, because without it they will likely need 10 wins in the ACC to make the Tournament. And when you've got three games against Duke and North Carolina, it's tough to only lose 6 throughout the entire ACC regular season. If I were a betting man, I'd pick Miami to make the Tournament, but it's going to be a tough road.

#3 Pittsburgh 56, Florida State 48
This final score might not look impressive for Pitt, but I was impressed watching the game. They were on the road against a good team, and nothing was going right. Levance Fields just didn't seem into the game, and didn't even attempt to look for his own shot (his one three-point field goal game as the shot clock was nearing zero and he didn't have enough time to pass it off), and Tyrell Biggs didn't play well either. But Pitt kept themselves in the game with impenetrable defense and tough rebounding. They held the Seminoles to 30% shooting, forced 18 turnovers, collected 25 defensive boards while only allowing 8 offensive boards, and did all of this while only committing 19 fouls. And when they needed a play, Sam Young led the way (21 points and 7 rebounds). The hallmark of an elite team is finding a way to win a win games when many of your top players are struggling. I still think UConn is the favorite in the Big East, but if anybody will knock them off it's Pitt.

USC 76, Georgia Tech 57

For some reason USC has floated under the radar this season. My guess is that it has to do with OJ Mayo and the fact that fans tend to confuse NBA prospects from NCAA stars. Often times the best NBA prospect on a college team is not its most important player, because a savvy senior is often superior to a raw 18-year old talent, even if the raw 18-year old has a much better chance of developing into an NBA star. So in the case of guys like Kevin Durant, or even Tim Duncan back in the day, they were the star of the team as well as the best NBA prospect. But I also would argue that Greg Oden wasn't the most important player on his team (that would have been Mike Conley, Jr), and I would argue that OJ Mayo was not the best player on last year's USC team. But people see Mayo starring in the pros and assume that his loss is devastating to the Trojans. But I would argue that the most important player on last year's team was Daniel Hackett, and he's still around. Taj Gibson is also a key returner, as is Dwight Lewis. Davon Jefferson also is gone (playing in Israel, and joining the long list of players who messed up their careers by going pro too early), but USC has replaced him with star freshman DeMar DeRozan. They might not be quite as good as last year, but I do think they're going to eventually be a Tournament team. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, just isn't really all that good. When Gani Lawal is held in check, they're not going to beat anybody. Unless they win over both Georgia and Alabama in early January (an unlikely result), Georgia Tech will need 10 ACC wins to make the Tournament. I just don't think they're good enough for 10. If they do manage to beat both Georgia and Alabama, they might be able to sneak in with a 9-7 ACC record.

Utah State 66, Utah 64
I don't know how many people know somebody from Utah State, but if you don't then you don't know how big of a game this is for them. The first thing anybody from that school wants to talk about is that despite the success of the RickMajerus teams, Utah State has won a majority of the match-ups between these two teams over the past two decades or so. And they won another one, reinforcing my belief that they're the favorites to take the WAC. For Utah, this is another tough loss (four of their five losses have been by four points or less). What's interesting about them is that despite their poor 6-5 record, they are still probably the third best team in what is (according to the RPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy) the seventh best conference in the nation. Most recent years we have had a mid-major conference earn three bids, so doesn't that mean that this year's top mid-major conference should have an excellent shot at a third bid? Certainly, but Utah has a way to go. Their out-of-conference resume won't cut it, unless they find a way to defeat Gonzaga and LSU in their final two big games. After that, they're going to have to make up a lot of ground in the Mountain West. If they can win the regular season title, for example, they'll have a great shot at the Tournament.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Devendorf? Who's That?

#11 Syracuse 72, #21 Memphis 65
Syracuse was the higher ranked team heading into this, but it doesn't change the fact that it surprised a lot of people that Syracuse was able to head into Memphis and leave with a win after the suspension of Eric Devendorf. It's still not clear how long Devendorf will have to be out, but it seems clear that he won't be out too long, so the fears of Syracuse fans that he would be out for the academic year appear to be allayed. That said, Syracuse fans need to take this victory with a small grain of salt. They did a great job of getting performances from other players with Devendorf out, including sophomore Rick Jackson (14 points and 7 rebounds here) who is really starting to make a name for himself. But Memphis also just played terribly. People think about last year's Memphis team when they see scores involving the Tigers, but Memphis isn't nearly as good as they were then. Whenever Tyreke Evans learns how to play at this level, they'll be a good team, and I still see something like a 5 seed in their future. But right now, Memphis just isn't a very efficient team. Anytime you miss 26 three-pointers in a game, you're going to have trouble getting the win.

Saint Mary's 65, Southern Illinois 52
Saint Mary's collects its fourth straight impressive victory, and it was enough to power them into today's new BP65. The fear with this year's Saint Mary's team was that they wouldn't have much to support Diamon Simpson, yet in fact it has been the other players on this team who have starred while Simpson has appeared to have plateaued. Simpson only scored 7 points in this big win, as the Gaels were led by Omar Samhan's 17 points and 16 boards. With that performance, Samhan is actually averaging a double-double this season. Patrick Mills has also really stepped up to be the leading ball handler on the team, leading all players with 20 points per game, to go along with 4 assists per game. For Southern Illinois, offensive continues to be a major question. Despite the awful start, it hasn't been the fault of their defense or rebounding. They're still hustling and playing hard. It's just that each basket feels like such an amazing chore. The Salukis just cannot create a basket when they need one. They only had 8 turnovers in this game, but shot an atrocious 27% from the field. For the entire season, they're only averaging 40.6% from the field, despite running that number up against a couple of their really bad opponents. Stats are always inflated early in the season, and we can expect SIU's offensive stats to get even worse as they head into Valley play. If I were head coach Chris Lowery, I would try to run more of my offense through the inside. I don't like the creative abilities of any of their guards (even though freshman Ryan Hare did have a nice game here and might have some potential to lead the team down the road), but Carlton Fay has some nice moves on the inside, and is clearly developing into quite a force down there. With nothing else working on offense, they need to run more through him.

Oklahoma State 86, Rhode Island 82

I love talking about games like these, because they're so important and yet they get absolutely no attention from the national media. No ranked teams? Big 12 vs Atlantic 10? We've got a Tony Romo puff piece we can run! In fact, even in March I doubt you'll see this game listed on Oklahoma State's list of "important wins" when they show their resume during broadcast games. But where you'll see this win will be in the RPI and in the computer rankings, both of which will respond well to this very solid victory. The Cowboys are only 8-3, and this is by far their best win, but they continue to sneak up on the rest of the league. This victory shot their RPI up to 39th in the nation, and Sagarin pushed them into the top 50 in the nation as well. Casual fans have heard of Byron Eaton, but most would be surprised to find out that he's only the fourth leading scorer on the team. The star has probably actually been sophomore James Harris, who led the way with an extremely efficient 33 points in this one (12-for-17 from the field, 5-for-7 from behind the arc, 4-for-4 from the line), although with so many good big men in the Big 12 the most important player may end up being 6'8" Malcoln Kirkland (4 points and 4 rebounds here), who has been thrust into the spotlight since OSU's star big man Ibrahimi Thomas was booted off the team. He'll get some help from Obi Muonelo, who despite being only 6'5" is leading the team with over 9 rebounds per game. The biggest test of this Oklahoma State team, which honestly prefers to play with 5 guards, will be when Oklahoma comes to town on January 26th. It will be very interesting to see what Travis Ford does with the Griffin brothers. For Rhode Island, this was a tough loss, but not a devastating one. Even in the loss, they showed a very solid effort. When you need to win a lot of conference games (as all mid-major teams hoping to earn an at-large bid must) you need depth. It's a problem when you're dependent on one star, and Rhode Island most definitely is not. Five players scored in double-digits here, and Rhode Island remains one of four Atlantic Ten teams with a serious shot at an at-large bid (along with Xavier, Temple and Dayton).

Stanford 65, Northwestern 59
Don't look now, but Stanford is the only undefeated team left in the Pac-10. Despite the fact that this is the best of their seven wins, they have had a series of solid victories. In addition to this win, they also have wins over Colorado, Air Force and Colorado State. Not a ranked team to be found, but it's not like they've beaten seven SWAC teams. In fact, the computers have been pretty impressed, as they now have an RPI of 23rd and a Sagarin of 36th. I need to see them beat a really good team before I'm ready to project them higher than about sixth place in a weak Pac-10, but you certainly can't complain about the start. A pretty big test will actually be their next game, Tuesday night at Santa Clara. This kind of win here over Northwestern is the kind that starts getting people talking on campus, and the Stanford players might start thinking that they're better than they really are. Santa Clara is a decent team that will be fired up to pull an upset on quasi-national television (the game will be on ESPNU). A Tournament team goes into Santa Clara and takes care of business. We'll see if Stanford does. If they can clear that hurdle, as well as a home game against Texas Tech next Sunday, their first really serious test will come in their Pac-10 opener, on January 2nd against Arizona State. For Northwestern, this game will go down as a missed opportunity to really throw themselves into the at-large discussion. They're 7-2 with solid victories over Florida State and DePaul, and without any bad losses. We'll get an early sense of how serious this Northwestern team is when they head to Penn State for their Big Ten opener on New Year's Eve. I need to see a victory there for me to take Northwestern seriously as a Tournament team. And if they're going to win that game, they need to show more depth. Kevin Coble isn't good enough to beat a good team by himself.

W-12 BP65

We've passed December 15th, which means that the categories of teams missing the cut have expanded by one:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Notre Dame

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Purdue
3. Oklahoma
3. Pittsburgh

4. Wake Forest
4. Georgetown
4. Florida
4. Louisville

5. Ohio State
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Syracuse
5. Arizona State

6. Kansas
6. Marquette
6. Baylor
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

7. Clemson
7. Wisconsin
7. BYU (MWC)
7. Maryland

8. Miami (Fl)
8. Michigan
8. West Virginia
8. Villanova

9. Dayton
9. UNLV
9. California
9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

10. Texas A&M
10. Missouri
10. Illinois
10. USC

11. CREIGHTON (MVC)
11. Kentucky
11. Saint Mary's
11. Florida State

12. Minnesota
12. LSU
12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)

13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, NC State, Temple, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Illinois State, Utah, Arizona, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Providence, Seton Hall, Iowa, Kansas State, Nebraska, Hofstra, George Mason, UAB, Houston, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, Missouri State, San Diego State, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
Virginia, George Washington, St. Joseph's, St. John's, Penn State, Texas Tech, UTEP, East Carolina, Cleveland State, Niagara, Bradley, Southern Illinois, Drake, New Mexico, TCU, Wyoming, Oregon, Auburn, Georgia, San Francisco, Boise State, Nevada

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Two Close Finishes... Two Not So Close

#2 UConn 88, #7 Gonzaga 83, OT
This is one of those games where I was really glad to have Gus Johnson as my announcer. I think he actually vaporized his microphone when A.J. Price hit that miracle three-pointer to tie the game. It was actually a terrible shot, and Price clearly panicked and didn't realize how much time he still had left on the clock. But he made the shot, and UConn won the game, so it all worked out in very exciting fashion. The difference in this game, though, was the foul situation. Gonzaga was called for 26 fouls, compared to UConn's 18. Thabeet fouled out for UConn, but that was more than balanced out by eliminations for Austin Daye, Micah Downs and Matt Bouldin. I know that a lot of Gonzaga fans feel short-changed by the refs, but it's hard to argue that UConn got some home cooking in Seattle. The refs may have been distracted by that hideous floor, but UConn earned most of those fouls by aggressively getting to the rim. Gonzaga became far too timid and, especially as their lead melted away in the second half, become too much of a perimeter-oriented team. This loss is a serious blow to Gonzaga's hopes for a 1 seed, but they still have a shot. A win at Tennessee on the 7th of January would really help. Without a win there, or over Memphis in February, Gonzaga can pretty much forget about that 1 seed. Not that a 2 seed would be too shabby for a WCC team. For UConn, I have to say that they've been the most consistent Big East team so far this year. The difference between a 16-2 and a 15-3 and a 14-4 season is consistency, and the fact that UConn never seems to take a night off bodes well for their chances to take the conference.

#18 Purdue 76, #20 Davidson 58

This game wasn't as close as the final score. Purdue actually jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never let Davidson really get into this game at all. A big reason that this was a tough match-up for Davdison is that Purdue has really good perimeter defense. That meant that they could contain Stephen Curry without over-committing, like other teams have done early this season. Curry ended up with 13 points on 26 shots from the field, and only had six assists. Davidson won't beat anybody when Curry plays like that. Also, they had no answer for Robbie Hummel, who was set loose inside and went for 18 points and 14 rebounds. For Purdue, they did a good job of matching Michigan State's big win earlier in the afternoon. They believe that they can win the Big Ten, and they're going to have to beat Michigan State to do it. For Davidson, they were obviously over-rated at 20th in the nation. They're not as good as last year's team, but they're still in very good shape for an at-large bid. Even assuming that they lose at Duke on January 7th, Davidson can still afford to lose a game in conference during the regular season, and still make the Tournament if they fall in the SoCon tourney.

UNLV 79, Arizona 64
I did call this victory for UNLV, but even I was shocked at how Arizona was blown off the court. They just looked like they didn't want to be there. They were extremely lackadaisical on offense, giving up 19 turnovers (10 of which came on steals) compared to only 7 turnovers for UNLV. And despite their massive size advantage, Arizona didn't seem interested in running their offense through Jordan Hill. He only took 11 shots despite 6 offensive rebounds (since post players often shoot as soon as they get an offensive board). During the parts of this game that I watched, Arizona just didn't hustle, on offense or defense. They didn't even have the energy to go on a little run in the second half after UNLV opened up their big lead. But while Arizona falls further down the bubble hierarchy, UNLV pushes ahead to 10-2 with a few solid victories and no bad losses. They get a huge opportunity on New Year's Eve at a suddenly vulnerable Louisville, but even a loss there wouldn't knock them down too far. UNLV has shown more depth this year than I thought (I feared it would be the Wink Adams show every game). Without any overwhelming out-of-conference wins (unless they beat Louisville), UNLV will have to earn their at-large bid in conference play. The Mountain West is a very tough conference this year, but I still think UNLV has to finish first or second to feel good about an at-large. The conference will most likely get only two Tournament teams.

#17 Arizona State 76, BYU 75
Speaking of the Mountain West, this should have been a big win for the conference, too. I actually saw the end of this game live, and I'm convinced that the ball left Charles Abouo's hands just before the clock turned to 0.0. And I have a sneaking suspicion that if this game weren't held in Glendale that the refs might have felt the same way. Unfortunately for BYU, the Selection Committee is just going to see this as any other 1-point loss, and this will go down as a big missed opportunity. They are still 10-1, but they lack any good wins as the schedule has been very weak. They get a great opportunity to get that win on January 3rd when Wake Forest comes to town, where BYU has won 52 straight home games. A win there and they're definitely back in business. For Arizona State, they just continue to grind out wins. They're now up to 9-1, with wins over Charlotte, BYU and Nebraska. With only two more easy games left before the Pac-10 starts, Arizona State is going to have to prove themselves in conference to get a good seed. But I do see them as the second best team in the conference, so they should get plenty of wins.

Goran Suton Powers Michigan State

#22 Michigan State 67, #5 Texas 63
Goran Suton is still feeling his way back into the lineup, and he was nowhere near his best today (despite leading Michigan State with 18 points), but his presence was without a doubt the difference in this very competitive game. He just makes such a difference on the defensive end, and with his rebounding. From what I could see, Suton is still figuring things out on offense, as he occasionally ran into his own men and struggled to spread the floor, but that will come as the season goes along. If nothing else, this win gives Michigan State legitimacy as they head into the Big Ten regular season. They've proven that they can beat legitimate teams, and that they are going to be serious Final Four contenders once everybody is completely healthy. For Texas, it's not too devastating of a loss to go down to a very good Michigan State squad. They are still 9-2 with wins over UCLA, Villanova, St. Joe's and Oregon. And they get a great chance to bounce back on Tuesday evening at Wisconsin. All in all, they just had a bad day. This is the first time since a March game against Oklahoma State that A.J. Abrams failed to hit a three-pointer. And the offense will always sputter a bit when Justin Mason misses time (as he did with a small injury in this one). In my mind, Texas is still the strong favorite to take the Big 12 and to earn a 1 seed.

Minnesota 70, #9 Louisville 64
Speaking of legitimizing wins for Big Ten teams, how about this one for Minnesota? Even though Louisville showed flashes of how strong their full court press can be, it was Minnesota that did the better job of running off of screens and hustling for rebounds. They held Louisville to 4-for-17 shooting from behind the arc, and slightly out-rebounded the larger Cardinals squad. And in case you were wondering, Minnesota is now 10-0, with a win over a Big East (Louisville) and ACC (Virginia) squad. They don't have the star power to seriously compete for a Big Ten title, but they're scrappy enough to win 10 games in conference play, and that might just be enough for an at-large bid. For Louisville, this makes us all really question why we ever ranked this team so high. They are still 7-2, but haven't beaten anybody. Their schedule has been atrocious. I can certainly make excuses for them, namely that this weak schedule has made them soft and they have to re-adjust to the speed of big-time college basketball, but they have to prove it on the court. There are no more Morehead States or Lamars left on the schedule, so it's time for Louisville to prove that they deserve to be named among the top Big East teams.

#6 Duke 82, #7 Xavier 64
This game wasn't remotely as close as the final score might indicate. Duke was actually up by 31 points in the first half, and just cruised through the second half. The day isn't over yet, but it's going to be hard for any team to top Duke's overpowering performance here. There's no point in even analyzing the stats, because Duke just blew Xavier away in every aspect of the game. For Xavier, I think this game was a bit of a reality check. When I saw this match-up I was shocked to find out that Xavier had actually moved up to 7th in the country, because there's just no way that they're the seventh best team. They pulled off that nice upset of Memphis, but otherwise have just beaten the teams that they're supposed to beat. If their kids actually started believing their own newspaper clippings then that could easily explain the way that an experienced Duke team blew them away. The Musketeers get a chance to bounce back Tuesday evening against Butler, and in the grand scheme of things it can never be that bad for an Atlantic Ten team to lose to Duke. Xavier fans just needed a reality check. For Duke, they continue to look extremely dangerous. When they're on their game, they can beat anybody. Although when the shots aren't falling, they can also lose to Michigan. But don't be surprised to see Duke with a record like 21-2 when UNC comes to town on January 28th.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Devastation For Ole Miss; Massive Sun Belt Battle

#9 Louisville 77, Mississippi 68
For Ole Miss, this was a devastating loss for more than one reason. The loss itself was a big missed opportunity, as this game was tight the entire way. The Rebels actually tied up the game with about five minutes to go. They had come into this game with a 7-3 record and without any bad losses, but without any good wins either. A win here would have thrust them right onto the fat part of the bubble. Instead they're 7-4 and in need of a minimum of a 10-6 SEC record to be a serious at-large contender. But this game was a devastating loss for another reason: star point-guard Chris Warren tore his ACL and will be out for the season. Not only do they lose his 20 points per game, but his ability to create with the ball drove Mississippi's offense. The fact that they were already a long shot to make the Tournament even with Warren makes it really hard to see Mississippi making the Tournament this year without him. For Louisville, this is actually the best team they've beaten all year. By far. Their schedule up to this point has been embarrassing, but it picks up very quickly. After this game they get Minnesota, followed by UAB, UNLV and Kentucky. And right after Kentucky comes the Big East schedule. In other words, Louisville is jumping into the deep end right now, and we'll find out very soon whether they can be a serious Big East contender. And after the Minnesota game, Louisville's next seven games are scheduled for ESPN, ESPN2 or CBS. So we'll all get plenty of opportunities to watch them play.

Western Kentucky 69, South Alabama 66

A big difference between this blog and ESPN is that this blog is going to analyze games like this, while ESPN wants to devote hours to analyzing Tyler Hansbrough's performance in a meaningless game against Evansville. And a big difference between this blog and most other bracketology sites is that I'm not going to reflexively make Western Kentucky the favorite in this conference just because they won this game. I didn't actually have this game on television in my area, but we can learn a lot from the box score. The first thing somebody might notice is that the box score seems backwards. As these two teams have dueled for the Sun Belt crown over the past few years, it has always been Western Kentucky that dominated on the inside, while South Alabama had the advantage in guard play. Yet here you had South Alabama dominating inside, yet faltering on the outside. South Alabama won on both the offensive and defensive boards while Western Ketucky won the turnovers, steals and three-point shooting categories. But to me, the difference in this game was experience and confidence. Western Kentucky came in as the big bad Sweet Sixteen team, and they clearly expected to win. South Alabama must have been nervous and lacking confidence, because their complementary players all took a backseat and let their senior leading scorer Domonic Tilford do everything. Tilford scored 30 points, but also had six turnovers. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky was much more balanced, finding double-digits from four different players. I think South Alabama will learn a lot from this experience, and they'll play better next time. As time goes on, Western Kentucky's 2008 Tournament performance will fade further into the rearview mirror, and South Alabama's players will feel more comfortable playing their game. Because when South Alabama plays within themselves, they're the best team in the Sun Belt this season.

Cincinnati 75, Mississippi State 63
Cincinnati went on a remarkable 20-2 run to close the first half, and Mississippi State was never able to claw all the way back into the game. For Mississippi State, their resume now nearly exactly mirrors their friends from Oxford. Both teams are 7-4, both lack any really bad losses, but neither have any good wins. One thing Mississippi State has going for them is that their best player didn't just tear his ACL, but that's about the only good news. A win over Cincinnati wouldn't have shocked the basketball world, but it would have gone a long way towards legitimizing Mississippi State's team. The SEC West is still wide open, and it's very weak, which means that there will be plenty of potential wins. Not to mention that the way the SEC tournament is seeded means that the SEC West winner gets a pretty favorable draw. But I haven't seen anything out of the Bulldogs that convinces me that they're the best team in the SEC West right now. LSU looks better, for one. For Cincinnati, this marks their best win of the season as they move to 8-2. The best way to describe them is solid: they beat the teams they're supposed to beat, but they haven't pulled any upsets. It's enough to put them on the bubble (their ranking is in the 40s in the RPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy), but it's not going to be enough to earn an at-large bid out of the Big East. If we consider Pitt, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette as Tournament teams (hard to see any of those teams missing out) then that means that the Big East only has two other Tournament bids that are likely. The Selection Committee is not going to take the unprecedented ninth team unless they really have to. And that means that Cincy will be fighting with Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia (and possibly even Seton Hall) for two, maybe three Tournament positions. That's some really stiff competition. I'm not saying that Cincinnati can't do it, but it's going to be very tough.

Indiana Has Hit Bottom

I'm sure that many of you have already seen the latest story on last year's debacle at Indiana University. According to Eric Gordon, there was rampant drug use on last year's team. There seems to be confirmation from other anonymous sources, so this story seems to be beyond debate. To me, this story backs up everything that I've thought about Kelvin Sampson and his coaching job at Indiana. We knew that he lost control of his team, and that the program was unsustainable.

In my opinion, Indiana handled this situation correctly. Though fighting different issues, they did the same thing that the New York Knicks are correctly doing this year. When you have bad characters, you just have to purge the system. Bring in new coaches, bring in new management, and get rid of all of the players. IU has done this by bringing in a very good (and as far as we know, very clean) coach in Tom Crean.

This season Indiana probably has its least talented team in modern history, but from what I've seen they appear to be good kids. And with hard work and good coaching, they're improving. They had that atrocious stretch in Maui where they got rocked by St. Joseph's and snuck by Chaminade by two points. They looked like they might be on pace for something like a 20-loss season. Yet they've already shown some fire by hanging with Gonzaga for much of the second half, and following that up with a solid victory over TCU.

We might continue to hear more stories about the horrendous reign of Kelvin Sampson at IU, but it won't change the fact that the basketball program has already hit bottom and should be back and competitive in the Big Ten by next season.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Big East Begins To Sort Itself Out

Cleveland State 72, #11 Syracuse 69
Surely nobody saw that 60-foot miracle coming. And since Syracuse probably would have won this game in overtime, this was clearly a fluke loss. But what wasn't a fluke was Syracuse letting this game become tied in the final seconds. When you put yourself in a bad situation, bad things will sometimes happen. And it's games like this that make me continue to say that you can't pencil Syracuse into the Tournament quite yet. They are undoubtedly good enough to make the Tournament, but how many more of these types of losses will they have? And what will happen if Eric Devendorf gets a serious suspension? Still, Syracuse is 10-1 with wins over Florida, Kansas and Virginia, and they get a great chance to bounce right back Saturday evening at Memphis. Even a loss to Memphis would most likely put them 11-2 heading into the Big East season, knowing that a 10-8 Big East record would most likely be plenty to get them into the Tournament. So they're a likely Tournament team, but they're not nearly a lock.

#19 Tennessee 80, #23 Marquette 68
A good win for a Tennessee team that might have tumbled all the way out of the Top 25 here. In fact, a loss for them might have knocked the entire SEC out of the Top 25, since it's unlikely for any SEC team to crawl back in by the time next week's rankings come out. It's a pretty remarkable drop for a conference that for a while there was as good as any conference. Still, even a loss here wouldn't have changed the fact that Tennessee is a very good team that is the strong favorite to take the SEC. The idea that a team with Wayne Chizm and Tyler Smith as players and Bruce Pearl as a coach not being a top team is preposterous. Even with the losses to Temple and Gonzaga. For Marquette, I really like the improvement that Wes Matthews has shown. For the past two years, Marquette was about Dominic James and Jerel McNeal, while Matthews was something of an afterthought. Yet while James and McNeal appear to have plateaued in their playing careers, Matthews has progressed tremendously and is now leading the team with over 20 points per game on the season. He led them here with 30 points on only 12 shots from the field. Unfortunately, Tennessee is the kind of team that will always be tough for this Marquette team to beat. For one thing, Marquette often likes to press teams with their athleticism, but they're not going to out-athlete Tennessee. Secondly, Marquette can be inconsistent at times and will beat themselves if given the opportunity, but they're also explosive enough that they'll beat any team that takes five minutes off from a game. So they will beat teams that don't come out with energy, but Bruce Pearl's boys are always going to be fired up and flying all over the floor. Marquette now drops to 8-2, with only a game at NC State standing between them and an 11-2 out-of-conference record. Like Syracuse, a 10-8 Big East record will probably be enough for a Tournament bid.

Arizona 69, #4 Gonzaga 64
Arizona may be painfully inconsistent, but they're also full of athletic talent. And they found a way to slow this game down and grind it out against a Gonzaga team that really likes to run and push the ball on offense. Gonzaga's defense also showed some impatience, as they broke down late in possessions and gave Arizona some open shots, leading to 7-for-10 shooting from behind the arc for the Wildcats. But if you're an Arizona fan, don't get too excited just yet. Part of being an inconsistent team is occasionally looking great. In fact, if I were a betting man, I'd pick UNLV to take them down on Saturday afternoon. Arizona also gets a shot at Kansas before the Pac-10 regular season starts, and they could really use a win there if they fall to UNLV. An 8-4 out-of-conference record would mean that a lot of wins will be needed during Pac-10 play, and with how weak that conference has looked the Wildcats might need an 11-7 record there. For Gonzaga, they can make up for this loss when they get UConn on Saturday afternoon. They also have another game against Tennessee. They can afford to split those two games if they can run the table in the WCC. Otherwise, they're probably out of the running for a 1 seed.

Saint Mary's 78, Oregon 73
I laid out a challenge for Saint Mary's, and they seem be passing it with flying colors so far. I said that they needed at least two wins out of four road games (Kent State, San Diego State, Oregon and Southern Illinois) to be serious at-large contenders. It turns out that the San Diego State game was on a neutral court, but the point was to see if they could win away from their great home court advantage, and they proved that they could. They still have SIU on Saturday, but they're already in good shape even with a loss there. The Gaels are now 8-1 with a relatively easy remaining out-of-conference schedule (other than the SIU game, of course). I would say that a 10-4 WCC record would give them an excellent shot at making the Tournament, even if they fall to SIU. For Oregon, they continue to lose to good teams, but they continue to lose. This loss drops them to 4-6 with two relatively dangerous mid-majors left to go before the Pac-10 season starts. Even with wins there, the weak Pac-10 schedule will mean that Oregon will almost surely need a 12-6 conference record plus a win or two in the Pac-10 tournament to earn an at-large bid. Even an 11-7 conference record would probably leave them out of the hunt for an at-large spot.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

W-13 BP65

Remember, this is the last week where I keep the teams left out in only two categories. Beginning next week there will be three categories. With approximately three months to go until Selection Sunday, here's how I project things:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Notre Dame

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Purdue
3. Oklahoma
3. Pittsburgh

4. Florida
4. Wake Forest
4. Louisville
4. Georgetown

5. Syracuse
5. Ohio State
5. Arizona State
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

6. Kansas
6. Marquette
6. Baylor
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

7. Clemson
7. Wisconsin
7. Villanova
7. Maryland

8. BYU (MWC)
8. Miami (Fl)
8. USC
8. Michigan

9. West Virginia
9. Washington State
9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
9. Utah

10. Texas A&M
10. Dayton
10. California
10. Missouri

11. CREIGHTON (MVC)
11. UNLV
11. Florida State
11. Illinois

12. Kentucky
12. LSU
12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)

13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Temple, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Northwestern, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Stanford, Washington, Alabama, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Virginia, George Washington, Rhode Island, Providence, Iowa, Penn State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hofstra, VCU, UAB, East Carolina, Houston, UTEP, Illinois-Chicago, Bradley, Missouri State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Oregon, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky

Saturday, December 13, 2008

First Real Saturday Of Season

Temple 88, #8 Tennessee 72
With college football's regular season over, college basketball finally gets the day of saturday to itself. And we had a pretty entertaining first real saturday, including Temple's impressive beat down of Tennessee. Actually, the game was closer than the final score. Temple led almost the entire way, but didn't open up the lead until late in the second half, when the rim just seemed to shut whenever the Vols were shooting. All in all, Temple just played as well as they possibly can, and Tennessee played by far their worst game of the year. Temple is good enough that their best will beat basically anybody's worst. And that's what happened here. So I wouldn't read too much into this loss for Tennessee. In my mind, the Vols are still the heavy favorites to take the SEC, although they're relative long shots for a 1 seed at this point. But for Temple, nobody on Selection Sunday will say "Sure they beat Tennessee by 16, but Tennessee stunk that day." It's going to be on the resume as a great win, and it completely rehabilitates the at-large hopes of an Owls team that was on life support after consecutive losses to Buffalo and Miami of Ohio a couple of weeks back. We're far enough in the season that I can start quoting RPI numbers, and this win pushes Temple up to 13th in the nation. I don't think they'll be back in tonight's BP65, but they're definitely a whole lot closer to getting in than they were before this win.

#19 Georgetown 79, #15 Memphis 70, OT

Memphis probably would win this game if they played it again, but their inexperience really showed, especially with so many of their more experienced players in foul trouble. Tyreke Evans continues to be an inefficient scorer, scoring 20 points on 24 shots from the field in this one. Despite expecting a lot out of super-freshman Greg Monroe, Georgetown has way more experience to lean on in games like this. This was a very tight game the entire way, and Georgetown simply played better in crunch time. This game actually meant more for Memphis, because Georgetown has so many tough opponents left to go in Big East play. They might only be a 4-6 seed if the season ended now, but they have plenty of time to earn any seed that they want. All they have to do is win. Memphis, on the other hand, has limited chances. Their best win is either Seton Hall or UMass, with a loss here and against Xavier. Their only remaining ranked opponent is Syracuse, who comes to Memphis next weekend. If Memphis falls there, they can forget anything higher than a 3 seed in the Tournament. They just won't have the wins.

#21 Ohio State 54, Butler 51

I admired the way that Butler fought their way back into this one on the back of the sharpshooting Gordon Hayward (7-for-11 from behind the arc for the game). But the Buckeyes had opened up enough of a lead that they were able to survive one last three-point attempt at the buzzer to keep their undefeated season alive. They are now 6-0, with their last three wins coming over Miami (Fl), Notre Dame and Butler. That's a great start for this team. Barring a huge surprise, Ohio State will still be undefeated when West Virginia comes to town on December 27th. With the win there, Ohio State just has to be careful to remember the 2006-07 Clemson Tigers, and that they haven't won anything until they win some conference games. For Butler, this is their first loss, but it's certainly not a bad loss. And the recent emergence of Hayward is really welcome for a team that probably isn't getting as much as they hoped from Matt Howard, who has nearly identical scoring and rebounding numbers from his (albeit solid) freshman season. Butler gets two more chances at good wins, heading to Xavier on the 23rd, and then getting UAB a week later. Remember that it's not easy to get an at-large bid out of the Horizon. Butler needs a big scalp, and they missed a great shot today.

UMass 61, #23 Kansas 60
Kansas is a young team, and young teams will sometimes have halves like the first half that Kansas played today. Their superior size led to 14 extra shots, but atrocious shooting ending up being the difference. Kansas simply wasn't able to work their way all the way back, despite a perfect chance after Chris Lowe missed two free throws with 20 seconds to go. For Kansas, this probably won't be the last time that they have a game like this. They don't yet have the maturity and consistency to win every single game. But they're still a good team that is almost certain to be Tournament bound. They still have a bunch of good opponents left even before the Big 12 season starts, and the odds are that they'll knock off at least a couple of them. For UMass, this is a huge win, but it's not yet enough to get them back in the at-large debate. They just got off to an awful start to the season, as their 3-6 record can attest to. In the Atlantic Ten, there are enough good opponents that UMass can still work their way back into the at-large picture. But they're Tournament long shots at this point.

Two Final Recaps From The Week

Creighton 77, Dayton 59
A couple of results from earlier in the week before we get to today's upsets. In this game, a battle for mid-major conference RPI rankings, the Missouri Valley came up with the win against the Atlantic Ten. The difference was Creighton's defense, which kept Dayton's stars from being major factors in the game. Chris Wright and Marcus Johnson are Dayton's two best scorers, yet despite a combined 67 minutes on the floor they had only 17 combined points on 16 combined shots from the field. Creighton didn't even get a big performance of its star: P'Allen Stinnett (13 points, 4 assists). Booker Woodfox has actually led the team in scoring this year, and the sharpshooter led all players with 21 points here. For Creighton, they continue to make their case as best team in the Missouri Valley. That loss to UALR is inexplicable, but otherwise they've been fairly solid. This is their second straight win over an A-10 team (they won at St. Joe's last Saturday). But if the question is whether Creighton would make the Tournament as an at-large if the season ended now, the fact is that the jury is still out. They have to win their remaining three out-of-conference games before the Valley regular season starts (the most daunting being Fresno State on the 22nd). After that it's just about avoiding bad conference losses. For Dayton, this is their first loss, and a bad loss it most certainly is not. They still have wins over Marquette, Auburn and Akron. Of course, the Flyers got off to a great start last season also. We'll see if they learned some lessons (and can avoid all of those bad injuries) so that this season can end on a more positive note.

#12 Villanova 59, Saint Joseph's 56
Scottie Reynolds, after a disappointing start to the season, is beginning to find himself. He looked more like he had the past two years as he led Villanova back from a 9 point second half deficit here. Villanova does have a bunch of guys who seem to have been playing together forever, and they should always do well late in close games. For St. Joe's, they're just a bit thin. They have nothing to bring off the bench at all, so it's all on the starters. This won't be the last time that they wear out late in games. Maybe they should suit up the kid in the Hawk outfit for an energy boost. Saint Joe's is a pretty good team, and this is not a bad loss, but it's been a relatively mediocre out-of-conference performance for them. I give them credit for scheduling so many good opponents, but they just haven't won any of them. Too many losses for a good team this early in the season. For Villanova, they're ranked highly mostly because they've had a pretty easy schedule. They've been clear favorites in every game that they've played except for one. Guess which was the only game that they lost? Big East teams, of course, can only hide so long. The Wildcats will play a slew of elite teams just in the first three weeks of Big East play (including UConn, Louisville and Marquette). We'll learn plenty about how good Villanova really is after those games are played.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

A Few Recaps From Early In The Week

Missouri 93, California 66
It's a slow week in college basketball, and next week will be another slow one. It's partially because a lot of students are taking final exams. More importantly, we're in the purgatory between the great early season tournaments and conference play. Some of the smaller conferences actually started playing a couple of conference games back in November, but the big conferences don't start until nearly New Year's. Anyway, about this specific game, this was an example of Mike Anderson's system at its best. He turned the game into utter chaos, and California just couldn't keep up. Missouri forced 14 steals and outrebounded the taller Cal team, and the layups they got on those fast breaks buoyed their shooting percentage up to 49% despite bad outside shooting (6-for-20 from behind the arc). This win makes you really think that this is the year that Mike Anderson finally takes his boys to the Tournament. They have a loss at Xavier, but that really doesn't look like a bad loss right now. And they now have this win to go with a win over USC. If they can avoid any losses to bad teams before the Big 12 season starts, then you have to consider them in really good shape for an at-large bid. At this point you probably have to put them fifth in the Big 12, after Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Baylor. Obviously, that could change once conference play starts. For Cal, they've got to bounce back tonight with a big game at Utah. They're 6-2 without any bad losses, but they also lack any wins over any good or even decent team. They have one more decent opponent, Nevada at home, before the Pac-10 season starts. If they fall to Utah, that Nevada game becomes a must-win to salvage the out-of-conference resume.

Florida State 57, #21 Florida 55

A great bounce-back win for a Florida State team that was in danger of slipping out of the at-large picture. The Seminoles have home wins over California and Cincinnati, but it's not clear yet whether those will be good wins or not. And that big loss to Northwestern was very bad. It was a great thing to see them bounce back as quickly as they did. They have an opportunity for a huge win down the road when Pittsburgh comes to town, but otherwise they should blow away the mediocre teams they're playing between now and their ACC opener against Duke. Even if they lose to Pitt, a win in every other game will make them 13-2 without any really bad losses heading into ACC play. A 9-7 ACC record might not lock up an at-large bid, but they'd have a great shot. For Florida, this is a tough loss that showed their immaturity. Other than Nick Calathes, who is better used as a shooting guard or swing forward, they just lack passing abilities. The rest of the team (other than Calathes, who had six assists) had a grand total of two assists. The team had a total of 16 turnovers. That's how you lose to a team that only shoots 31% from the field. Florida continues to play well enough to avoid bad losses, but losses to Florida State and Syracuse mean that they haven't been able to get good wins either. Their best win is a two-point squeaker over Washington. There are no other chances for good wins in the out-of-conference, which means that the pressure will be on Florida in the SEC. It's quite possible that Tennessee will be the only ranked team that they play in the SEC, so there will be a lot of pressure on the Gators to win one of those two match-ups.

#22 Davidson 68, West Virginia 65
Yet another close win for a Davidson team that has proved very tough in the last five minutes of games. Three nights after the five-point win over NC State, they came right back with another win despite a weak night for Curry. It's weird how Sportscenter turns every Davidson highlight package into a collection of all of Curry's made shots, because he's actually been fairly inefficient this season. All of his shooting percentages are down from last year (he's only 38% from behind the arc, for example, compared to 44% last season). Against West Virginia, for example, he took 27 shots to get his 27 points, which is actually a pretty poor performance. No, the reason for Davidson's good season hasn't been Curry's shooting, it's been his passing. His assists are way up this season, up to 6.9 per game from a career high of 2.9 per game last season. He had 10 assists here against West Virginia. Basically, defenses have been actually over-pursuing Curry. They are keeping him from scoring, but they're leaving open tons of players down low, and Curry is finding them. Eventually I would think that defenses will re-adjust, and try to find the proper balance between stopping Curry and preventing the easy lay-ups down low. Davidson will see two more good teams the rest of the way when they head to Purdue on the 20th, and to Duke on January 7th. Even if they lose those two, Davidson is in really good shape for an at-large bid. They've played well enough that they can afford a loss or even two in the SoCon while still being in line for an at-large bid if they go out in the SoCon tournament. A quick note about West Virginia: we were expecting big things out of this team, but they've disappointed so far. In addition to this loss, they've also lost to Kentucky, with only one win that I would qualify as "good" (a 19 point win over Iowa). West Virgina gets one more serious test before the Big East, when they head to Ohio State on December 27th. Without a win there, they're going to need a minimum of 10 wins in the Big East to get into the Tournament.

#6 Texas 67, #12 Villanova 58
The best match-up of the week on paper wasn't really as close as the score would indicate. It was never a blowout, but Texas just seemed in control the whole way. Villanova never led after a 12-10 lead early in the first half. Texas just has a lovely combination of pure young talent and seasoned vets like A.J. Abrams, who can take over when times get tough. There's a reason why I've had these guys as a 1 seed ever since I put together my preseason BP65 back in April. But since Texas is only worried about the Big 12 title and trying to collect a 1 seed at this point, Villanova is a more interesting team to discuss. This marks their first loss of the year, which sounds impressive until you look at their 8 wins. But they hung in here with an elite Texas squad, so there's nothing to complain about quite yet. I would like to see them take out Saint Joseph's tomorrow night, but even a loss there wouldn't be too devastating. Villanova was probably a little bit overrated at #12 in the country, but they're still a good team that shouldn't be worried about missing out on what would have been a big upset here.

Sunday, December 07, 2008

W-14 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Notre Dame

3. Purdue
3. Florida
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Pittsburgh

4. Oklahoma
4. Wake Forest
4. Louisville
4. Georgetown

5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Syracuse
5. Kansas
5. Arizona State

6. Baylor
6. Marquette
6. Ohio State
6. Clemson

7. Wisconsin
7. Villanova
7. UNLV (MWC)
7. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

8. Maryland
8. USC
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Michigan

9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
9. West Virginia
9. Washington State
9. Dayton

10. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
10. Texas A&M
10. BYU
10. Kentucky

11. Virginia Tech
11. California
11. Missouri
11. LSU

12. Utah
12. Illinois
12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)

13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
14. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, NC State, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Creighton, Illinois State, San Diego State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Alabama, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, George Washington, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Providence, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, VCU, UAB, East Carolina, Houston, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Kent State, Bradley, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, San Diego

Saturday, December 06, 2008

Huge Day For Big Ten

Michigan 81, #4 Duke 73
If you are ranked fourth in the nation, you do not want to have to play Michigan. After taking down #4 UCLA a few weeks ago, Michigan's newest victim is the new #4, Duke. I absolutely loved Michigan's team defense here. Duke players would have been forgiven for thinking that Michigan had 8 guys on the floor, because nobody could touch the ball without being surrounded by at least two defenders. In fact, Michigan sometimes got in trouble by pursuing too much, as they would occasionally leave themselves vulnerable to the cross-court pass and an open three pointer in the corner. And while you'd expect Duke to struggle to shoot with this defense, they also failed to hit a bunch of those open three-pointers. But we all know that Duke playing its best is going to beat Michigan at its best. But what we've learned is that Michigan is good enough that if they are at their best, and you're not at your best, they're probably going to knock you off. In addition to Manny Harris, Michigan had three other players show up big here, and each in different aspects of their games. DeShawn Sims had a monster game inside (28 points and 12 rebounds), Zach Novak was lights out for a little while there behind the arc (4-for-7 three-point shooting for the game), and Kelvin Grady was pure energy off the bench (9 points, 4 assists, 0 turnovers, and led nearly every Michigan break while he was in the game). I strongly doubt that Michigan can seriously contend for a Big Ten title, but how can you not put them in your bracket at this point?

Ohio State 67, #7 Notre Dame 62
This win was even more impressive when you note that Notre Dame had won 39 straight at home. Now, I don't know if this technically counts as an end to that winning streak, since the game was actually held at Lucas Oil Stadium (where the Indianapolis Colts play), but it was certainly a hostile crowd that this young Ohio State team faced and defeated. Luke Harangody was back on the floor, and was pretty good with 25 points and 16 rebounds, but I still felt like he's not all there after his illness. With right around one minute to go in the game, Harangody had two relatively easy shots on consecutive possessions that he missed. If he made both, they'd have tied up the game. I think he still has a way to go. And Ohio State could write a textbook on shutting down Kyle McAlarney, who didn't have an inch of space to maneuver when he had the ball within 30 feet of the basket. It all put a lot of pressure on the Notre Dame bench, where they are just not that good. Notre Dame is about their Big Three, and if you can control those three (as Ohio State did as well as just about any team has this year) then the Irish are in trouble. A win like this is important for Ohio State, because they need to stay a step ahead of all of the new bubble teams in the Big Ten. We know that Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin are looking pretty safe for Tournament bids, but Ohio State needs to stay grouped in close to those guys, rather then falling back into the bubble discussion with the likes of Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern and others.

Northwestern 63, DePaul 36
Speaking of Northwestern, how about this below-the-radar win? Once again, Kevin Coble was the star for the Wildcats (25 points and 6 rebounds), but once again Northwestern won because of a team effort: great passing and great defense. It's all in the stats: 18 assists on 26 made baskets, with only 9 turnovers. They also held their own on the boards against a larger DePaul team (37 rebounds vs 33 for Depaul). And of course, anytime you hold your opponent to 24% shooting you did a pretty good job of team defense. Northwestern now moves to 6-1 with wins over Florida State and DePaul, and their only loss on the road to a good Butler team. They have one more tough opponent before the Big Ten starts (at Stanford, two weeks from today), but the real test will be how they start conference play. Northwestern really gets thrown in the deep end, starting out the Big Ten with this schedule: at Penn State, vs Michigan State, at Wisconsin, vs Purdue, vs Minnesota, at Michigan State, at Michigan. I mean, my goodness. They could play pretty darn good and still come out of that 1-6. If Northwestern is going to be a serious at-large contender, they've got to find a way to win a minimum of two of those. The second half of their schedule is much easier, but I still can't see them going any better than 7-4 over that stretch. Assuming that they need to go 9-9 in the Big Ten to even be in the at-large discussion, that means that the 2-5 start would be a minimum. We'll get a good sense of how they will play on the road during that Stanford game.

Another Close Loss For Arizona

Texas A&M 67, Arizona 66
Arizona will find all sorts of ways to lose close games this year. Here, they found a way to blow a 16 point second-half lead. Arizona had the two best players on the floor, but Texas A&M just played very solid all around. I don't know if this is a typo, but ESPN says that they only had four turnovers. They also shot 47% from the field and 83% from the line, which was necessary with the way that Arizona blew them away on the boards (at halftime, Arizona had a remarkable 20-5 advantage in the rebounding department). For Texas A&M, this was a very important win for their resume. They play a pretty weak out-of-conference schedule, with no chance for a big win. That means that a very good record is necessary for an at-large bid. The only remaining game where they won't be big favorites will be when they head to Alabama next Saturday. A win there, and over all of the inferior teams that they play before the Big 12 regular season starts up, will put Texas A&M in really good shape for an at-large spot.

Cincinnati 87, UAB 80
I like the way that Mick Cronin has grown this Cincinnati team. After finishing 2-14 in the Big East in his first year, they moved to 8-10 last year, and are probably even better this season. The difference in this one was actually shooting, as UAB forced more turnovers than they gave up. Cincy had a lot more rebounds, but that was mostly an effect of how many missed shots their were. On UAB missed shots you had 30 defensive boards for Cincy, and 12 offensive boards for UAB. On Cincy missed shots you had 14 defensive rebounds for UAB and 11 offensive boards for Cincy. But in the end, the fact that stats say that UAB would have won with a better shooting day will be little consolation for Mike Davis, as his team slips further down the bubble. They still have zero bad losses (their three losses have been to Oklahoma, Boston College and here against Cincinnati), but you can't get an at-large bid from Conference USA with zero bad losses. You need a good win, and the Blazers continue to blow their chances. They get two more chances for a nice win out-of-conference, as they head to Louisville and Butler in late December. For Cincinnati, they move to 6-1 with a couple of decent wins, and zero bad losses. They get a great opportunity to really throw their hat in the at-large ring when Xavier comes to town next Saturday. It's going to be very hard to earn an at-large bid out of the Big East, but Cincinnati is definitely in the conversation.

Providence 66, Rhode Island 65

A very tight game the entire way. I don't think either team led the other by more than about five points for the entire game. Providence overcame 19% three-point shooting with a huge performance out of senior Weyinmi Efejuku who efficiently scored 21 points along with 8 rebounds. Rhode Island really suffered because they were turned into a jump shooting team. They shot fairly well (44%), but could not get to the foul line at all (4-for-9 for the entire game). I don't think I've ever seen a team win a game with only four made free throws. For Providence, I think the jury is still out on how good of a coach Keno Davis really is. If he's as good as Providence hopes he is, it's possible that he can get his boys into the bubble discussion before all is said and done. But even with this solid win, they're still really far outside the bracket at this point in time. For Rhode Island, this is their third loss to a good opponent. The same thing that I said about UAB applies here: teams from the Atlantic Ten don't get at-large bids because they fail to lose to bad teams. You've got to beat some of these teams from big conferences. I think Rhode Island's Tournament chances are better than those of Providence, but they really need a win over Oklahoma State two saturdays from now.

Pac 10/Big 12 Update

#6 Oklahoma 73, USC 72
Yes, there is such a thing as the Pac 10/Big 12 Challenge, but you're forgiven for not knowing that it's going on. Unlike the ACC and Big Ten, this challenge has no coherent pattern to it. It's just a bunch of games between Big 12 and Pac 10 teams stretched over many days. The ACC and Big Ten do a much better job of making it succinct enough that people will actually tune in to root on their conference. Anyway, the story from this game was probably the dirty shot that Blake Griffin took below the waist from USC's Leonard Washington. It's interesting how chippy this game was, because these teams have no history against each other. I can't remember the last time these two teams met in basketball. That said, I can understand why it might be infuriating to play against Griffin. He is big and has a ton of energy, and just like Tyler Hansbrough he loves to throw his body around. He loves to lower his shoulder to bowl over defenders, and basically never gets called for charges. I'd probably get upset, too, if I had to guard him. But once you try a dirty play, you lose all sympathy. Blake Griffin becomes the victim. But if he could inspire this much hate against a team he has no history with, you've got to expect some more pushing and shoving when Griffin gets up against Big 12 rivals that he has history with, or that he has to play multiple times in the season.

#8 Texas 68, #9 UCLA 64
This was a really good game that went back and forth the whole way. And I hate to continue harping on the kid, but UCLA continues to be hamstrung by Jrue Holiday on defense. The way that he has tunnel vision on his man and is oblivious to everything else around him makes him a backdoor pick waiting to happen. It's not a surprise that a team like Michigan was able to take advantage earlier this season. In this one, UCLA's overall ability was enough to make this essentially a draw, in Austin. UCLA's overall shooting was relatively weak, and Texas did a wonderful job keeping Darren Collison from being able to get to the rim (something which I thought was almost impossible to do). The only reason this game was as close as it ended up was because of a breakout performance by Alfred Aboyo, who dominated with seven offensive rebounds. But in the end, UCLA just did not have an answer for A.J. Abrams, who continues to make the case that he's the best shooter in the nation. I know that there are a ton of amazing shooters this year, but Abrams has to be in any discussion. The depth that Texas showed here reaffirms my belief that Texas is the solid favorite in the Big 12. And the way that UCLA stayed in this one, with the knowledge that they'll be so much better on defense when Holiday learns how to have defensive floor awareness, makes it clear that they are still the clear favorites in the Pac-10, despite the great start by Arizona State.

Washington 83, Oklahoma State 65
We heard big things about star recruit Isaiah Thomas before this season started, and he's proving that it's not just hype. He is already the team's second-highest scorer, behind only future NBA player Jon Brockman. Thomas actually led all Huskies in this one, with 18 points. Jon Brockman's 11 rebounds (to go with 16 points) were the key behind Washington's domination of the boards. And in the end that was the difference in the game. All of the major statistics were even between the teams, except for rebounding, where Washington had 14 offensive rebounds compared to only 21 defensive rebounds for Oklahoma State. This results was a bit of a surprise for me, since it seemed like the Cowboys were the better team thus far this season. This game could be huge down the road, because I think both of these teams will be bubble teams all the way through the year. Both are good enough to make the Tournament, but neither is good enough to expect that they'll be able to have an at-large bid wrapped up by the time March rolls around. I expect both of these teams to enter their conference tournaments still uncertain of their Tournament status.