Friday, February 28, 2014

Morning News: Arkansas Stuns Kentucky, Penn St Knocks Off Ohio St, Indiana Upsets Iowa, Duqesne/St. Louis And Much More

The ugly finish to Utah Valley and New Mexico State which generated a whole lot of #HOTSPROTSTAKES about court storming.

Arkansas Stuns Kentucky It's pretty amazing that Arkansas won a game on the road at a really good Kentucky team and not a single person who watched the game thought they played well. Both of these teams just made a staggering number of bone-headed mistakes. The teams combined for 38 turnovers (vs only 19 assists) and 37 offensive rebounds. Kentucky had six or seven dumb alley-oop lobs that didn't work out, including a crucial one in the final 45 seconds with the Wildcats holding a two point lead. The two teams combined for five turnovers in overtime, but the difference ended up being Arkansas hitting six consecutive free throws.

What does this win mean for Arkansas? A lot, obviously. They've won six of seven to get to 8-7 in SEC play and 7-8 vs the RPI Top 100, with a sweep of Kentucky to go with wins over SMU, Minnesota and Clemson. That said... there's a little bit of overreaction in the media about this. I heard a few folks (including ESPN's postgame team) saying Arkansas was now a Tournament "lock". Everybody will, of course, forget that they said any of that in a few days. The Razorbacks still have bad losses to Texas A&M and Georgia, with an RPI that is 59th and a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 61st. So you can maybe argue for Arkansas in the Field of 68 if the season ended now, but I'd argue against you, and they still have a lot of work left to do regardless. Unless they win their final three regular season games (and they probably won't win their final three regular season games), they're going to have to win at least one (and probably two) SEC tournament games.

Kentucky has fallen a long way from the dumb 40-0 hype preseason. If Missouri (currently 48th in RPI) struggles down the stretch, Kentucky has a real chance to enter Selection Sunday with a single win over the RPI Top 50. With a Sagarin PURE_ELO that has slid all the way to 26th they're at real risk of dropping into a 7/10 or 8/9 game in the NCAA Tournament. But they'll be a very dangerous team if they do, not because of the typical narratives but simply because they're better than their record. They're 2-6 in games decided by five points or less, and are still a Top 15-20 team according to both Sagarin and Pomeroy.

Penn State Knocks Off Ohio State I feel like I've said this a million times this season (and be prepared, it's coming again later down this blog post), but the Big Ten is really deep. There are no bad teams, and it's absolutely ridiculous to freak out about close road losses. It's just not that bad of a performance to lose to absolutely any Big Ten team on the road. That's not to say Ohio State will be happy with their performance (they left a ton of points at the free throw line and only shot 5-for-17 behind the arc), but if they played like this at home against DePaul or Oregon State they'd have won easily.

Ohio State is now 9-7 in Big Ten play with two difficult games remaining (at Indiana, vs Michigan State). If they do somehow drop to 9-9 in Big Ten play, their tourney seed could slide to something like an 8 or 9, which would make them a very scary team to end up in your region. I don't think that even a 9-9 Ohio State team, however, would have to really worry about the bubble.

Indiana Upsets Iowa Iowa fans: Read the first paragraph to the Penn State/Ohio State recap right above this recap. Iowa hasn't had a "bad" loss all season long, and every single loss has come down to the final minute. The fact that Iowa has had some bad luck in close games doesn't change the fact that they're still most likely one of the 20 best teams in the country, and that they have a chance to be a dangerously under-seeded team on Selection Sunday.

As for this game itself, people saw the high score and assumed "horrific defense", but in fact the defenses weren't particularly bad. What made this game unique was its high tempo. The 83 possessions made it the fastest paced Big Ten game since a staggering 91 possession game played by Michigan and Iowa on March 1st, 2000. That tempo gave Indiana 1.12 PPP, which is more than Iowa would want to give up, but not significantly above the 1.04 PPP average by all teams in Big Ten play so far this season. Indiana also took 38 free throws, which also helped their cause. The star was Will Sheehy, who went for 30 points. Iowa was a rough 4-for-19 behind the arc.

Indiana absolutely had to have this win. They're 6-9 in Big Ten play now knowing that they need to get to 8-10 to have a realistic at-large chance. They now head into a monster home game against Ohio State on Sunday. Considering the fact that they close the regular season on the road at Michigan, they really need to win that game against the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers already have wins over Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa, so a win over Ohio State would really look nice relative to other bubble teams. Getting to 8-10 wouldn't be sufficient to go Dancing, but it would put them in position to get there if they can do some damage in the Big Ten tournament.

Duquesne Shocks Saint Louis It goes to show you just how damn hard it is to go undefeated in conference play. Sometimes you're just not going to play well, and St. Louis just had one of those games here. What was particularly surprising were the defensive breakdowns. Duquesne had a 50.9 eFG% and scored 1.08 PPP, including 46 points in the second half. It's only the fifth time all season a team has had an eFG% over 50% vs Saint Louis, and three of those five games ended up as SLU's three losses this season.

What does this say about Saint Louis? What does it say about the Atlantic Ten? About the conference, I don't think it really means anything. I don't see how this significantly impacts the bubble hopes of teams like George Washington. But certainly St. Louis will slide a line or two in the brackets with this loss. Their Sagarin PURE_ELO is still top ten, but the lack of big scalps will be a problem on Selection Sunday. With a tough finish to their season, including road games at VCU and UMass, the Billikens could easily slide to a 6 or 7 seed if they're not careful.

Oregon Beats Shorthanded UCLA This game proved that close, exciting games are not necessarily well-played games. This game was ugly throughout, and Oregon had a brutal meltdown in the final minute of regulation. Perhaps the most confusing play was the final one in regulation, where up by two with 1.3 seconds to go and UCLA lacking any timeouts, Oregon's Joseph Young hit a free throw. Oregon's defense then totally fell asleep and allowed David Wear time to get totally lost down court for an open three that he hit to send the game to overtime.

Now first of all, you have to miss the free throw there. A bunch of folks on twitter were trying to argue for making that free throw, and it comes down to a really bad understanding of math. But it's not even clear if Young was trying to make it or not - he might have tried to miss it and made it anyway. But then how does the defense break down so badly? And yes, Oregon fans, Bryce Alford clearly was defending the previous inbounding play from out of bounds.... but, you know, Pac-12 refs late in close games, and all that.

This game was a perfect opportunity for Oregon that they needed to have. UCLA's two best players (Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson) were suspended. The Selection Committee has almost never taken into account teams losing a bunch of games with a key player injured, and they're certainly not going to take into account whether a win is "tarnished" by the opponent missing players. Even if any non-UCLA/Oregon fans remember on Selection Sunday that UCLA was missing two key guys for this game, there's no chance it'll come up in the actual Selection Committee.

Oregon needed to get to at least 8-10 in conference play to have an at-large shot, and this win now gets them to 7-9. They only have two RPI Top 50 wins, but their RPI is 32nd and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 44th. If they go 8-10 in Pac-12 play and win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament, that really could be enough to sneak them into the Field of 68, despite the fact that they lost eight of ten games at one point.

Memphis Closing In On The Bubble? It was a rough night for ranked teams. Memphis just didn't get a good performance from their backcourt here. Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford combined for 2-for-11 shooting from the field. Shaq Goodwin was dominant down low (16 points and 10 rebounds), but it's not a good game for Memphis for Goodwin is their offensive star. LJ Rose was the facilitator for Houston, collecting ten assists to only one turnover.

Memphis was ranked coming into this game, but I don't really understand why. They're a lot closer to the bubble than most people realize. They have wins over Louisville, Gonzaga and Oklahoma State, but are only 4-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that has slid out to 49th. And they have a brutal finishing schedule, taking on Louisville then heading on the road to play Cincinnati and then closing at home against SMU. If they lose two of three (perhaps the most likely scenario, honestly), they'll enter the AAC tournament still having work left to do to earn an at-large bid.

Georgetown Loses A Bubble Battle To Marquette It's just been that kind of season for Georgetown, hasn't it? They just can't catch a break. They had multiple chances in the final minute here, including an excruciating D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera shot at the buzzer that rolled all the way across the rim before rolling out.

This was a disjointed game, with 51 fouls and 64 free throw attempts. Marquette didn't have anybody foul out, but Georgetown loses Moses Ayegba and Nate Lubick, and was close to running out of big guys. Against a depleted Georgetown front line, Davante Gardner exploded for 26 points.

Georgetown drops to 7-9 in Big East play. They have wins over Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State and Xavier, but the losses are really mounting. Their RPI is now 65th and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is only 58th. They have games remaining against Creighton and at Villanova, but they might have to win both of those to get back into the Field of 68. At this point, I don't think a split will be enough.

With five wins in their last six games, Marquette is making a final charge for an at-large bid. They're up to 9-6 in Big East play with wins over Xavier, Georgetown (twice) and Providence to go with a bad loss to Butler. They're only 5-10 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is only 73rd, but their Sagarin PURE_ELO is a much more bubbly 48th. If Marquette can get to 11-7 and then win a game in the Big East tourney game, that really should be enough to get them in.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Morning News: New Bracket, Nebraska Falls, Texas Escapes, And Arizona State Handles Stanford

Glenn Robinson III hit a basket that more or less seals the 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament for Michigan

New Bracket Projection A new bracket projection has been posted. The two most significant changes are Oklahoma State moving into the Field of 68 (knocking out Clemson) and Arizona moving back up to a 1 seed (replacing Michigan State, who dropped to a 2 seed). Other changes are discussed in the post itself.

Nebraska Falls At Illinois This falls under the category of a non-upset "upset". Illinois was actually favored by 2.5 points in Vegas. This Nebraska team, and Terran Petteway in particular, have gone from underrated to overrated so quickly that it's given me whiplash. Petteway is actually getting consideration (in the media at least) for Big Ten Player of the Year, which is pretty absurd. Petteway scores a lot of points, but it's because he takes a ton of shots. He's not a great shooter (35% on threes, along with a 50.0 eFG%). Petteway struggled here with 3-for-16 shooting, while Nebraska had a teamwide letdown game after their five game winning streak.

Nebraska is 8-7 in Big Ten play and 6-8 against the RPI Top 100, but with three RPI 100+ losses. Their RPI is 52nd, but that's inflated by the fact that they only played three teams outside the RPI Top 200. The better measure of their resume is the Sagarin PURE_ELO, which is 65th. So what do they need to do to get into the Field of 68? They need to win at least two of their final three Big Ten games, and they're going to have to do some damage in the Big Ten tournament.

Illinois is more evidence of just how ridiculously deep the Big Ten is. Illinois entered this game tied for last place in the Big Ten standings and second worst in PPP differential (Northwestern was worst), but they're 67th in the Pomeroy ratings and 64th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. In other words, they're good enough that if they were in a different conference and had a little luck in close games they'd be a bubble team. They're just not that bad of a team. There are no bad teams in the Big Ten.

Texas Escapes A Late Baylor Run Texas seemed to have this game in hand, leading by as many as 18 points. Baylor got hot in the second half, though, hitting five consecutive three-pointers at one stage, and they pulled within a single point in the final two minutes. After that, though, Baylor missed their final four shots, and ended up with a tough missed opportunity. Kenny Cherry led the way for Baylor with 27 points, including 5-for-7 shooting behind the arc. Cameron Ridley had a double-double for Texas, while Javan Felix shot 7-for-9 behind the arc.

In a game between two elite offensive rebounding teams (Texas leads the Big 12 in OR% while Baylor is 3rd in the nation) and two "meh" defensive rebounding teams, you expect there to be a lot of volleyball on the court, and that's what happened. Baylor rebounded 45% of their own misses while Texas rebounded 46% of theirs. Effectively, each missed shot was a 50-50 loose ball. The concept of "boxing out" does not exist to these two teams.

This loss drops Baylor to 6-9 in Big 12 play, knowing that they need to get to 8-10 to have a realistic at-large chance. Their computer numbers are strong, as they're 5-8 against the RPI Top 50 with an RPI that is 45th and a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 43rd, but it's very rare for a team four games under .500 in conference play to earn an at-large bid. The good news is that one would expect a 2-1 record over their final three games (vs Texas Tech, vs Iowa State, at Kansas State). So if they can go 2-1 and then win a game in the Big 12 tournament, that will be good enough to put them one of the last few teams in or out of the Field of 68. They might need a second Big 12 tourney win to push them finally into the Tournament for good.

This win pushes Texas to 10-5 in Big 12 play, with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 21st. They have seven wins against the RPI Top 50, though only one really premier scalp (Kansas), so if the season ended now they could be a 5 seed, but they'd most likely be a 6. It's hard to see them sliding more than 1 or 2 seed lines in either direction from there over the final two weeks of the regular season.

Arizona State Handles Stanford The final score of this game probably suggests a more competitive game than it really was. Arizona State led by double digits for almost three-quarters of the game, and Stanford never was really within shouting distance. Arizona State was actually saddled with really bad foul trouble all night, as they certainly weren't getting the money's worth on their homecourt advantage. Eric Jacobsen fouled out, and Jordan Bachynski was reduced to only 15 minutes because of serious foul trouble as well. But Stanford doesn't have the big men to exploit that sort of situation (they have a lot of taller players, but they're not traditional scorers on the block). Arizona State's 10-for-19 three-point shooting was enough to put this game away.

Arizona State moves to 9-6 in Pac-12 play and 7-7 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin PURE_ELO up to 31st. If they go 2-1 down the stretch, that should seal up their at-large bid. Stanford is also 9-6 in conference play, but they're much more precariously on the bubble due to fewer big scalps. Their RPI is 41st and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 42nd. So they'd be a Tournament team if the season ended now, but without much room to spare. A 2-1 finish and a win in the Pac-12 tournament should get them Dancing, but anything less than that and they'll have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

W-2.5 BP68

It hasn't been a particularly good few days for a lot of bubble teams. A lot of bad losses, and the bubble has extended to the middle of the 10 seeds at this point. I even moved Toledo up to an 11 seed just because I couldn't find another 11 seed. And I'll say what I've been saying for weeks: the odds of any of the teams I have as 12 seeds making the NCAA Tournament is below 50%. None of them are likely to get in... they're just more likely than the teams that I have out.

The bubble isn't necessarily growing, however. Outside the Field of 68, teams are falling off the pace. Squads like Missouri and Nebraska suffered crucial losses in the last couple of days, for example.

In the end, I only made one change to the Field of 68: Oklahoma State moved in while Clemson dropped out. There were two other teams I had a tough time keeping out of the bracket: Minnesota and Florida State.

At the top of the bracket, the biggest change is Arizona moving up to a 1 seed, dropping Michigan State to a 2 seed. Arizona looked pretty rough in the first few games without Brandon Ashley, but they've looked awfully impressive their last two games. Throw in the fact that the Big Ten is beating itself up to the point that nobody has a gaudy record anymore and Arizona seems like a safer 1 seed pick right now.

One thing I've talked about a bit the past couple of weeks is just how little gap there is between the 2, 3 and 4 seeds. Trying to separate these teams out is very tough, and in the end a lot is going to be decided in the conference tournaments. Please don't freak out at me because I have your team as a 4 seed instead of a 3, or whatever. There just isn't a big gap between any of those teams, and you can argue for just about any permutation of those teams.

Three teams were eliminated from at-large contention since the last bracket: Akron, Miami (Fl) and Texas Tech.  That leaves 38 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Syracuse
2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)

3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. Michigan
3. Villanova
3. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)

4. Virginia
4. Wisconsin
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. North Carolina

5. Cincinnati
5. Iowa State
5. Ohio State
5. Iowa

6. Texas
6. Kentucky
6. UCLA
6. New Mexico

7. UMass
7. SMU
7. Oklahoma
7. Arizona State

8. UConn
8. Memphis
8. Pittsburgh
8. VCU

9. Kansas State
9. George Washington
9. Stanford
9. GONZAGA (WCC)

10. Saint Joseph's
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. California
10. Xavier
 
11. Oregon
11. Colorado
11. TOLEDO (MAC)
11. Tennessee

12. Georgetown
12. Baylor
12. BYU
12. St. John's
12. Oklahoma State
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Florida State, Marquette, Providence, Minnesota, Southern Miss

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Nebraska, West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, NC State, Richmond, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, Georgia, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Notre Dame, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Seton Hall, Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio, Wyoming, Oregon State, Washington, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Morning News: Minnesota Knocks Off Iowa, St. John's Falls At Home, And Clemson Suffers A Brutal Loss

Congratulations to Wichita State for becoming the first team in Division I history to go 30-0 in regular season play.

Minnesota Knocks Off Iowa This was a game between two fairly desperate teams. Minnesota absolutely had to win this game or risk potentially falling off the bubble altogether. Iowa is safely in the NCAA Tournament, of course, but they came in with four losses in eight games, with all coming down to the final minute, and the fan base has been in meltdown mode. For example, enough fans abused Zach McCabe on twitter a few days ago that he called out his own fan base and then quickly deleted his twitter account.

This game wasn't a defensive clinic. The two teams combined for 1.31 PPP, which is the highest combined offensive efficiency in a Big Ten game since Wisconsin and Ohio State combined for 1.33 PPP on March 6th, 2011. Minnesota's 11-for-19 three-point shooting was probably the difference in this game, thought neither team could really stop the other.

Minnesota's resume is pretty straightforward. They're now 7-9 in Big Ten play and 4-7 against the RPI Top 50. I've said all season that if they get to 9-9 in Big Ten play they should make the Tournament. At 8-10 they'll need a win or two in the Big Ten tournament. If they fall to 7-11 they'll almost certainly be headed to the NIT.

I predicted after Iowa's last game that the panic in the fan base would get worse before it will get better. So here we are. The reality is that Iowa is still a really good team. Sagarin still has them in the top ten, while Pomeroy has them 12th. Remember, we generate narratives about teams "knowing how to win" close games, but it's total garbage. Iowa has the same probability of winning their next tight game as any other team.

St. John's Falls At Home To Xavier Both of these teams have been teetering near the bubble for a couple of weeks now. This was just an ugly performance all around for St. John's, from the 2-for-16 three-point shooting to the 54% free throw shooting to the 0.82 PPP, their worst offensive performance of the entire season. Xavier was at least able to get the ball inside, outscoring the Johnnies in the paint 38-22.

Xavier desperately needed this win after having lost five of their previous eight games. This win gets them back to 9-6 in Big East play and 8-7 against the RPI Top 100. Those two numbers sound great on the surface, but the Big East is not viewed highly in the media this season, and Xavier only has a single RPI Top 50 win (Cincinnati). They're 41st in RPI and 40th in Sagarin PURE_ELO, so they're in the Field of 68 at the moment, but not by much. If they can go 2-1 in their final three games, that should be enough to send them Dancing. Anything less than that and they'll have work left to do in the Big East tournament.

The Johnnies had won 8 of 9 Big East games, but now have lost two straight to drop right back to 8-8 in Big East play. During that streak they collected a few nice wins (Creighton, Georgetown, Providence and Marquette), but they're still only 5-9 against the RPI Top 100 with a pair of RPI 100+ losses. They just dug themselves such a big hole with the poor start to their season (on January 17th they were just 1-5 against the RPI Top 100) that the margin of error for St. John's down the stretch was always going to be very small. With a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is now 58th, it's likely that St. John's would be an NIT team if the season ended now. To get back into the Field of 68, they probably need to win their final two regular season games. If they don't, they'll have a lot of work to do in the Big East tournament.

Clemson Suffers A Brutal Loss To Wake Forest Clemson is feeling this season getting away from them. They've lost four of six, with an 0-3 record in games decided by five points or less over that stretch. Their defense, which has been their strength under Brad Brownell, struggled here. Wake Forest hit 67% of their two-pointers and had an almost two-to-one free throw attempt advantage (25 to 13). Clemson didn't do much with their free throw attempts anyway, hitting only 39%.

Clemson is still in the Top 50 of the Pomeroy ratings, but they have an NIT resume at the moment. They're only 10-10 against the RPI Top 200 with an RPI and Sagarin PURE_ELO that have both slid out of the Top 70. They do close with three winnable home games, but unless they win all three they're going to enter the ACC tournament with significant work left to do.

It's hard to know entirely what to make of this Wake Forest team. When Jeff Bzdelik took over four years ago, the roster was completely decimated, and the few decent players he had were off-the-court knuckleheads that needed to be kicked off the team. But every season since then the team has gotten better, and this year's team is pretty young. I've said a few times, and still believe, that Wake Forest is primed to make a run at an at-large bid next season. The problem is, there is no university where the relationship between coach and fan base is more toxic, and it seems unlikely that Bzdelik will get another season. For this season, there's not much left for Wake Forest to do but play spoiler, and they certainly played the role of spoiler here.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Morning News: Michigan Grabs Control Of The B1G, SMU Gets A Huge Program Victory, Utah Bounces Back

National Coach of the Year?

Michigan Grabs Control Of Big Ten Michigan State shot the ball really well in this game, hitting 39% of their threes and 68% of their twos. They finished with 1.13 PPP, which is above their season average. But Michigan looked a lot like last season's team in the way they were coldly efficient, committing only three turnovers. Caris LeVert (23 points) carried Michigan in the first half while Nik Stauskas (25 points) took over late. Stauskas not only hit several big shots, he also had two important assists to help put the game away in the final few minutes.

It's a little hard to tell what to make of this Michigan team. With this win they take firm control of the Big Ten. They have a one game lead over Michigan State with the tiebreak, and a two game lead over Iowa and Wisconsin, with a very reasonable final four games. The computers project a 3-1 finish for Michigan, and that will be sufficient to earn the 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament. And certainly they haven't had an easy Big Ten schedule - they've played Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin twice, with their one game against Ohio State coming on the road.

At the same time, their +0.08 PPP differential is only fourth best in league play (behind Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin), and they've been a lucky 3-0 in games decided by five points or less, as well as 7-0 in games decided by single digits. Also, when you consider their relatively soft non-conference schedule, it's hard to see a path to a 1 seed for Michigan, even if they win what might be the nation's best conference. Considering the 7 total losses, the only hope for a 1 seed is for Michigan to win out (including the Big Ten tournament) and then hope for some luck. Although really, the difference between a 1 seed and a 2 or 3 seed is vastly overstated. Announcers love to talk about how many more 1 seeds make the Final Four or win titles than 2 seeds... well no kidding, they tend to be better teams! If you control for team quality, the average difficulty of path isn't significantly harder for a typical 2 seed than a typical 1 seed.

The concern for Michigan State is Keith Appling. He didn't look anything like himself and continues to be very ineffective. In three games since returning from injury, he's played a total of 69 minutes with a total of 9 points, 12 assists and 8 turnovers. In his defense, he provides more value than just his stats. By drawing defensive attention, he makes Gary Harris better. In nine Big Ten games before Appling's injury, Harris averaged 18.7 points per game. The three games without Appling he averaged only 11.3 points per game, including a season-low 6 against Wisconsin. Since Appling came back? 21.3 points per game. The question is: Is Appling causing his injury to take longer to heal by playing. If he's not, he definitely still makes his team better. But if he is, Michigan State needs to be willing to risk another loss or two to get him healthy for the NCAA Tournament.

SMU Gets A Huge Program Victory Over UConn SMU came into this game very firmly in the Field of 68. They were only 44th in RPI, but their RPI is artificially deflated due to six games against teams with an RPI of 260th or worse. The Sagarin PURE_ELO is a more accurate view of where the Selection Committee sees resumes, and it was 35th coming into this game. After this win it's now up to 29th. But being firmly in the Field of 68 on February 23rd doesn't mean you'll still be there on Selection Sunday, and that's what makes this victory huge. SMU hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1993, but this win almost makes it a certainty that they'll be back in 2014.

UConn will be frustrated by their offensive effort here. They hit only 30% of their two-point attempts, scoring only 14 points in the paint all game long. Neither Shabazz Napier or Ryan Boatright could get their shots to fall all game long. The good news for them is that I don't think this game will mean too much in the long run. They weren't realistically a contender for a share of the AAC title anyway, and they're still pretty safely in the NCAA Tournament. They're 9-5 in conference play and 8-5 against the RPI Top 100, with only one bad loss (Houston). They still have Rutgers and South Florida to go, and beating those two teams will be sufficient to lock them into the NCAA Tournament, even if they lose their games to Louisville and Cincinnati (and they'll be favored for that Cincy game in Vegas).

Utah Bounces Back, Crushes Arizona State This Utah team is a funny one to try to figure out. They're obviously better than their W-L record... but how much better? This season they're a staggering 1-7 in games decided by five points or less. They're ranked 346th in the Pomeroy Luck rating, which makes them the unluckiest team in any major or premier mid-major conference. Sagarin rates them the 39th best team in the country and Pomeroy has them 35th. And here are the PPP efficiency margins in Pac-12 conference play:

+0.17 Arizona
+0.13 UCLA
+0.07 Stanford
+0.04 Utah
+0.04 California
+0.03 Oregon

So statistically, Utah has been the fourth best team in the Pac-12, and no matter which computer rating you prefer, Utah is as good as the Pac-12's bubble teams. They've just had excruciating losses in close games, including an 0-3 record in overtime games. The problem is, as much as "the eye test" gets talked about in the media and by people on the actual Selection Committee, the reality is that it doesn't matter at all. You're judged on your resume, and Utah's resume just isn't particularly impressive. They're 7-8 in conference play and 4-8 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over UCLA, BYU and Arizona State to go with bad losses to Washington and Washington State. Not only are they not even a bubble team right now, but they have an uphill battle just to sneak into the NIT. So watch out for them as a sleeper in the Pac-12 tournament, but realistically they're not a serious at-large contender.

Arizona State ran into a buzz saw here, and this game was never competitive. They trailed 41-15 with 5 minutes left in the first half. Their 35.4 eFG% was their worst shooting game all season long. This is a game to just throw out and forget about. The reality is that they're still firmly in the NCAA Tournament with an 8-6 Pac-12 record and that big win over Arizona. They're 34th in RPI and 31st in the Sagarin PURE_ELO, and numbers like those will never get left out of an NCAA Tournament. They do have to be wary of some difficult games down the stretch, but a 3-1 finish will probably lock them into the Tournament. If they only go 2-2 in their final four games, they'll likely have to win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament to avoid stressing out to Selection Sunday.

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Morning News: New Bracket, Duke Beats Syracuse, Russ Smith Leads Louisville, Wisconsin Steals A Win, And Much More

Rather than lead with the Jim Boeheim meltdown pics we've all seen, I'm leading this Morning News post off with the incredible finish to Stephen F Austin/Northwestern State, with the SFA radio call over the top. This play extended SF Austin's win streak to 22 consecutive games.

New Bracket Projection It's Sunday morning, which means there's a new bracket projection out. The two changes to the Field of 68 are Baylor and BYU moving in while Missouri and Minnesota drop out. There remains a lot of confusion with the 1-4 seeds, and I talk in that post in detail about some of the reasons why. Remember that the next bracket will be out after the completion of Wednesday night's games.

Duke Beats Syracuse In Controversial Finish This game ended up being decided by the refs, which you never want to see. Down by two with under 15 seconds left, CJ Fair attacked the basket and was called for a charge. It probably should have been a blocking foul, and considering that a nearly identical play had been called a blocking foul against Syracuse on the other end of the floor just before, Jim Boeheim lost his mind. It's hard to blame Boeheim for being upset, but at the same time the refs really didn't have a choice but to at minimum tech him up. They ended up giving him two and ejecting him. The thing is, of course, that this is what happens when you're on the road. When these two teams played up in the Carrier Dome a few weeks ago, it was Syracuse getting all the 50-50 calls from the refs and Duke was the team that was furious about it all.

Syracuse has demonstrated over the last week why I've kept them as a 2 seed for a few weeks now, despite their fans calling me a huge hater on all of their message boards. Their finishing schedule is just killer. Unless they win at Virginia on Saturday, they're pretty much assured to finish no higher than second place in the ACC. With at least three regular season losses (and Syracuse is probably now more likely to lose four than three anyway), Syracuse most likely has to win the ACC tournament to earn a 1 seed.

Is Duke in the 1 seed discussion? I guess they kind of are... but they pretty much need to win out. They certainly need to win the ACC tournament to have a real shot. They're only 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and even after this win their Sagarin PURE_ELO is still only 12th. More realistically, an ACC tournament title will earn them a 2 seed.

Russ Smith Leads Louisville Over Cincinnati Louisville was a 3.5 point favorite at Cincinnati, so despite the media calling this an "upset", the Cardinals didn't even cover the spread. That was honestly a confusing line (the computers had Louisville more like a 1 or 1.5 point favorite), but still, Louisville has been the best team in the AAC thus far, even if it hadn't shown up in the standings (Cincinnati was third in PPP margin in conference play prior to this game). But on the road you never know, and Louisville felt a bit like Syracuse in the way that they got the short stick from the refs most of the game. There were several perplexing calls that all went to Cincy late in the game. But down the stretch, Russ Smith was a monster, first with a beautiful assist to Montrezl Harrell, followed by his game-winning jumper with 2.2 seconds left.

Louisville has had spectacular computer numbers all season long, but had come up short in close games against top opponents. Their crap non-conference strength of schedule also didn't help their cause. They came into this game without a win over an RPI Top 25 foe, which was why their RPI and Sagarin PURE_ELO were in the 30s despite their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings both being in the Top 5. This win helps close that gap a bit, as their PURE_ELO slides up to 23rd. They still have a long way to go, however, to earn better than around a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Road games at Memphis and SMU over the next two weeks will be key for building that resume.

A win here would have effectively wrapped up the AAC regular season title, so it's a tough blow for Cincinnati. But they shouldn't feel too down about their performance. They had a shooting apocalypse in the first half (they finished the half 6-for-31 from the field, but were actually 3-for-27 at one point) and still managed to get close enough to cover the spread. They're still 5-3 against the RPI Top 50 with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 15th. They're still likely looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

Wisconsin Steals A Win At Iowa It felt like the Hawkeyes were in control all second half, but Wisconsin made the big plays down the stretch to escape with their second straight big road victory. Josh Gasser was big with 4-for-5 shooting behind the arc and superb defensive work on Aaron White all game, but the star was again Frank Kaminsky (21 points on 8-for-13 shooting with 7 rebounds). I think it's time to put Frank Kaminsky in play for Big Ten Player of the Year (along with Devyn Marble, Nik Stauskas and Gary Harris, in my opinion).

The finishing schedule is not particularly helpful for Wisconsin. All four games are against teams not in the RPI Top 50, which means Wisconsin won't get much for winning each game, but at the same time all four games are losable (Pomeroy puts their odds of losing at least one game at 62%). Although even if they lose one of those games, they can still potentially make a run at a 2 seed if they can do some damage in the Big Ten tournament.

There's now some panic about Iowa, but I'll say the same thing I've said over and over and over again this season: the Big Ten is really deep and everybody is going to lose a bunch of games. Iowa hasn't lost a game all season long against a team likely to earn worse than a 5 seed, and they're still ranked as one of the ten best teams in the country by both Pomeroy and Sagarin. That said, Iowa does have two tough road games coming up next, at Minnesota and at Indiana (with three games in five days due to the postponement of the game in Indiana). The odds are that they're going to lose at least one of those two, and the sense of panic about them is going to grow even more before it settles back down.

Stanford Picks Up A Massive Win Over UCLA Stanford has been hanging around the bubble for weeks. They had won four of five heading into this game, but they were without a signature victory. No longer, as they handled UCLA all game long. They grabbed a 12 point lead in the first half that they pushed to 14 in the second half. It never really felt like UCLA was going to come back. More than anything, Stanford was just on fire, finishing 55% behind the arc and with a 74.4 eFG%. That marks their best shooting day of the entire season. Chasson Randle led the way, going 7-for-10 behind the arc.

Stanford moves to 9-5 in Pac-12 play with this win. They're now a solid 5-6 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI up to 40th and a Sagarin PURE_ELO up to 39th. I don't think there's much question that if the season ended now they'd be an NCAA Tournament team. What do they need to go to stay in? I think a 2-2 finish followed by a win in the Pac-12 tournament will probably be enough. Anything less than that, though, and they'll have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

This loss drops UCLA to 10-4 in Pac-12 play, but it's not like they were a serious contender for the Pac-12 regular season title anyway. They're still 7-4 against the RPI Top 50, and while their RPI (12th) is a bit inflated, they'd still likely be a 5 or 6 seed if the season ended now.

Arizona Takes Colorado To The Woodshed With Arizona struggling a bit since the Brandon Ashley injury, and playing a tough game at altitude on the road, Colorado seemed primed for an upset here. Instead, Arizona just ran them off the court. The Wildcats ended up with 19 layups and dunks compared to just 6 for Colorado. Points in the paint were 38 to 14 in Arizona's advantage. Aaron Gordon had another big game, scoring 23 points on 10-for-13 shooting from the field.

This was a wildly impressive performance by Arizona. Does it mean that they're back to being the best team in the country? They looked like the best team in the country here, but as I always warn, don't overreact to a 40 minute sample size. Before this game they had played five games without Ashley and only one was decided by more than two points in regulation. They're still very thin and vulnerable against an opponent that can draw fouls, particularly on the front court. So I think we need to see this again before believing that Arizona is back to where they were.

Colorado had won five of six before this game to pull themselves into the Field of 68, but really needed this win to firm up their place. They are 9-6 in Pac-12 play and only 3-7 against the RPI Top 50, with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 41st. If the season ended now they'd probably be one of the last teams in the Field of 68. To stay in there, they're going to need to win at least one of their final three games, and probably two. And that's a problem, because all three games are on the road against bubble quality opponents.

San Diego Stuns Gonzaga This game happened in the wee hours of the morning, not even tipping off until midnight eastern time. What made this result so emphatic was that it came despite Gonzaga shooting the ball significantly better than San Diego. Gonzaga shot 46% behind the arc compared to 36% for their opponent, and the eFG%s were 55.6% and 48.9%, respectively. But this game came down to San Diego torching Gonzaga's perimeter defense and getting to the basket and to the line at will. A staggering seven different San Diego players earned between four and six free throw attempts. Johnny Dee led the way with 16 points, and also in mentions on the broadcast. I'm convinced that announcers say "Johnny Dee" 375 times per game simply because it's so damn fun to say "Johnny Dee". He sounds like a doo-wop hit from 1956.

Gonzaga is treading disturbingly close to the Tournament bubble. Their non-conference schedule was atypically poor this season, and with a down WCC they just don't have quality wins. They have one RPI Top 50 win (BYU) along with two RPI 100+ losses (Portland and San Diego). Their RPI is still 31st, but their Sagarin PURE_ELO has dropped to 38th. Once that PURE_ELO drops out of the Top 40, you'll need to sweat out Selection Sunday unless you have a huge bag of quality wins, which Gonzaga does not have. With road games at Pacific and St. Mary's still to go, they're going to need to find a way to sweep those two games. One more loss followed by a loss in the WCC tournament will very likely force them to be very nervous on Selection Sunday about their streak of 15 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.

Kansas Annihilates Texas Texas was not a serious contender in the Big 12, and I think everybody expected them to lose to Kansas here, but this game was just a beat down. Kansas finished the first half on a 36-8 run and led by around 30 points for the entire second half. Andrew Wiggins led the way on both ends of the court (21 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks), though none of the Kansas starters played long enough to accumulate too many statistics. 28 of the 60 shots Kansas attempted were either dunks or layups. Texas just put up zero resistance.

Kansas is still very much in the mix for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. To earn one, though, they'll need to win the Big 12 tournament and they can't afford more than one more regular season loss. Road games at desperate Oklahoma State and West Virginia teams will presumably be their toughest tests.

Texas has lost two straight games, though there's nothing wrong with road losses at Iowa State or Kansas. They were underdogs in both games and rightly so. They had won 9 of 10 before these two losses and are still a solid 9-5  in the Big 12. They're still 11-7 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 22nd. Realistically, they'd probably be a 6 or 7 seed if the season ended now, though they can easily slide up or down a couple of seed lines over the next few weeks.

New Mexico Easily Handles San Diego State This wasn't an "upset", despite every newspaper headline calling it such. San Diego State is ranked 6th and New Mexico is unranked, but San Diego State has been lucky in close games and isn't nearly as good as their resume suggests. Vegas had New Mexico as a 3.5 point favorite, which is pretty much in line with what the computers. Still, it was a surprise how much New Mexico dominated this game. They had a double digit lead for the final 17 minutes of the game and led by as many as 23 points.

The issue for San Diego State at times this season has been offense. In fact, their 1.03 PPP is only tied for eighth best in Mountain West play so far this season. They are either last or second-to-last in the Mountain West in eFG%, 3P% and FT% shooting. And here? They managed to top all of that with a season-worst shooting performance (33.8 eFG%) along with a stunningly odd 0-for-3 performance at the free throw line. They are only the 8th Division I team to go a full game this season without hitting a free throw. It's a concern, and the type of thing that can limit San Diego State's ceiling in the NCAA Tournament.

This result means that the Mountain West regular season title will presumably come down to the season finale between these two teams in San Diego. Although one thing to keep in mind with these two teams tied in the standings is that San Diego State has a significantly tougher schedule over the next three games. I'd expect San Diego State to drop a game at either Fresno State or UNLV. So San Diego State would be a 2 or 3 seed if the season ended now, but they could easily lose two or three games the rest of the way and tumble a couple of seed lines if they're not careful.

New Mexico, meanwhile, has basically locked up their own at-large bid. They're 7-4 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that has climbed to 19th. They're just playing for Tournament seed at this point.

Georgetown Wins Big Over Xavier Coming off two straight losses to drop them to 6-8 in Big East play, Georgetown absolutely had to have a win here over Xavier. This win was never going to be enough to get them all the way back into the Field of 68, but at least it wasn't particularly stressful for Georgetown fans. They led by 16 points at halftime, and Xavier never again pulled the game back into single-digits. Georgetown's offense, which has been awfully ugly for big stretches this season, looked really nice here. They committed only three turnovers as a team, and their 1.37 PPP were their most in a Big East game since an 82-67 win over Cincinnati on January 27th, 2007.

The Hoyas are still only 7-8 in a Big East that isn't getting a lot of credit from the media. They have wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, VCU, St. John's, Xavier and Providence, but also have bad losses to Northeastern and Seton Hall (twice). Their RPI is 61st and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 56th. If the season ended now they'd be in serious consideration for an at-large bid, though I think they'd end up in the NIT. Realistically, they're probably going to have to get to 9-9, which means beating Creighton at home and also stealing a road game at either Villanova or Marquette.

Xavier is a bubble team in their own right. This loss drops them to 8-6 in Big East play and just 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that has dropped to 50th and a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 46th. Considering the lack of big wins (their win over Cincinnati is their only against an RPI Top 50 opponent), you can make a good case that Xavier would be an NIT team if the season ended now. The good news is that they have home games against Creighton and Villanova still to go, so they'll get a couple of great chances for another big scalp, but they're going to need to get to at least 10-8 in Big East play to have a good at-large case.

Oklahoma Beats Kansas State This game got lost in the shuffle on a busy Saturday, but it could shift both of these teams a seed line or two on Selection Sunday. Kansas State got off to an ugly start, trailing 40-15 with three minutes left in the first half. You have to give them credit for fighting back, though, led by Marcus Foster. Foster, the most underrated freshman in the country, poured in 21 points, including 4-for-7 behind the arc. Overall, though, Oklahoma just shot the ball really well. They hit 45% of their jump shots, including 40% behind the arc.

This win should pretty much seal up Oklahoma's at-large bid. They're now 9-5 in Big 12 play and 7-4 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI and Sagarin PURE_ELO that have both crawled into the Top 25. Unless they lose their final four regular season games, they'll be in the Field of 68.

Kansas State is just 8-6 in Big 12 play and have those two RPI 100+ losses from non-conference play, but they have six RPI Top 50 victories and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is still 32nd. A 2-2 finish should seal up an at-large bid. Anything worse than a 2-2 finish, though, might force them to win a game or two in the Big 12 tournament to avoid having to sweat out Selection Sunday.

W-3 BP68

Three weeks from Selection Sunday... is the bubble growing or shrinking? I suppose the answer depends on what you mean by the questions. There appear to be a few more teams that are within a single win or loss of realistically being in the Field of 68. At the same time, the number of teams within vicinity of the bubble is reducing, with the herd being culled daily.

In this bracket, two at-large teams at the bottom changed places. Baylor and BYU joined the projected Field of 68, while Minnesota and Missouri dropped out. Remember again that this doesn't mean I think that Baylor and BYU are making the NCAA Tournament (I'd still put their odds below 50%). I just think their odds are better than any team that is currently out of the bracket.

At the top of the bracket the 1 seeds remain very confusing. The two teams that control their own 1 seed destiny are Florida and Wichita State - they'll earn a 1 seed if they win out. The Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC are all at risk of losing a 1 seed simply because the top teams are beating each other too much, which opens the door for Arizona, though we need to see more than one great Arizona performance before believing that they've solved the problem of the Brandon Ashley injury.

One other issue starting to arrive is that the bracket is getting clogged around the 2, 3 and 4 seeds. I've talked before about the parity this season and just how little gap there is between, say, the 6th and 14th best teams in the country. And the result is that there just is so little gap between the teams fighting for the last 2 seed and the teams fighting for 3 and 4 seeds. Unless we get a lot more clarity in the next 3 weeks, those seed lines are going to be very hard to predict.

Four teams were eliminated from at-large contention since the last bracket: Auburn, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State and Utah State. That leaves 41 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. Around 30 of those teams will be eliminated over the next three weeks.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)

3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. Michigan
3. Villanova
3. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)

4. Virginia
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Wisconsin
4. Iowa

5. Cincinnati
5. North Carolina
5. Iowa State
5. Ohio State

6. Kentucky
6. Texas
6. UConn
6. UCLA

7. New Mexico
7. Memphis
7. Arizona State
7. UMass

8. Oklahoma
8. SMU
8. VCU
8. Pittsburgh

9. Kansas State
9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. George Washington
9. Stanford

10. Xavier
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. California
10. Saint Joseph's

11. Oregon
11. St. John's
11. Tennessee
11. Colorado

12. Georgetown
12. Clemson
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. Baylor
12. BYU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Marquette, Providence, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Missouri

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, Dayton, Richmond, Indiana State, Boise State, Utah, Arkansas, LSU, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Ohio, UNLV, Wyoming, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Seton Hall, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Oregon State, Washington, Georgia, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Friday, February 21, 2014

Morning News: North Carolina Upsets Duke, Louisiana Tech's Crippling Loss. Seton Hall Crushes Georgetown & BYU Wins A Must-Win

HOW COULD THESE HORRIBLE STUDENTS RUSH THE COURT! ELITE BASKETBALL PROGRAMS DON'T...... eh, I can't even say that with a straight face. Have fun, guys.

North Carolina Upsets Duke This was a fun game, if not a particularly well played one. Duke, in particular, was a mess offensively. They went away from Jabari Parker for long stretches of the game and seemed far too happy to settle for long jumpers, particularly during the stretches when North Carolina went into a zone. For the game as a whole, Duke ended up with a jump shot on 54 of their 63 attempts from the field, and they went awfully cold in the second half. between the 15:00 and 6:30 marks in the second half, Duke was 0-for-8 on jumpers and had a total of 2 points on 15 possessions (0.13 PPP). In all they shot 22.7% behind the arc, dropping them to 2-3 this season when shooting below 34% on threes. They are 19-3 when shooting 34% or better, and two of those three losses came against Kansas and Syracuse.

As far as team quality goes, there's no reason for Duke fans to sweat this loss. They were on the road (and UNC got the typical homecourt advantage from the refs) and shot like utter crap but still led most of the game and were competitive in the final minute. Nobody could realistically come out of this game thinking North Carolina is the better team. But as far as resumes go, Duke is looking like a bit of a long shot to earn a 1 seed. They'll have to win the ACC tournament to get a 1, and probably can't afford any more losses. It's possible to earn a 1 seed with seven losses (Duke currently has six), but it's rare, and Duke doesn't have the type of resume that makes it likely.

North Carolina has won eight straight games and is now 9-4 in ACC play and 6-3 against the RPI Top 50. The bad losses are why their computer numbers are all still around 20th and why they'd still probably only be a 5 seed if the season ended now, but they have a chance to push for a 4 seed (or even a 3 seed) if they can finish strong. If they only lose one more regular season game, that's probably a success (particularly since they'll be pretty significant underdogs at Cameron Indoor).

Louisiana Tech Suffers A Crippling Loss Louisiana Tech came back to almost steal this game. They trailed nearly the entire night and were down by 11 with just over seven minutes left. They came back to pull within two points, but missed their final eight three-point attempts (all in the final five minutes). It's hard to overcome that in a close game. Poor shooting was the theme of the night, though, as Louisiana Tech finished 7-for-28 behind the arc, compared to 10-for-24 for East Carolina.

Louisiana Tech is 21-6 overall and 2-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a win over Oklahoma to go with bad losses to Louisiana-Lafayette, East Carolina and UTEP. Their RPI has slid to 88th and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 75th. It's certainly not a Tournament resume, and at this point it's hard to see a realistic path to an at-large bid. They'll have to win every remaining regular season game and hope to get lucky. Their more likely path to the NCAA Tournament is to win the Conference USA tournament.

Seton Hall Crushes Georgetown's Hopes Coming off a loss to St. John's that dropped them to 6-7 in Big East play, Georgetown absolutely could not afford a loss here to Seton Hall. But not only did they lose, they got embarrassed. Georgetown never even trailed by single digits in the final 15 minutes of the game, and were down by as many as 19 points. Seton Hall's offense was staggeringly efficient, putting up a 63.3 eFG% and 1.30 PPP. The 1.30 PPP were their most in a Big East game since scoring 1.35 PPP against Georgetown on February 21st, 2012. Fuquan Edwin was the best player for either team, putting up 21 points on 9-for-13 shooting.

Georgetown now drops to 6-8 in Big East play and 5-8 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that has dropped all the way to 63rd. They could potentially earn an at-large bid with an 8-10 Big East record, but they'll need to do really well in the Big East tournament and get a lot of luck. Realistically, they need to get to 9-9, which means a 3-1 finish to a schedule that has home games against Creighton and Xavier, as well as road game at Villanova and Marquette. That will be very difficult.

Seton Hall has quietly played pretty good basketball in Big East play. They're 5-8 in conference play, and are actually now just being outscored by 0.02 PPP in conference play. That's better than Georgetown, and only just barely behind Providence (+0.00 PPP) and Marquette (+0.01 PPP). With a strong finish, they still have a real shot at a top six finish in the Big East standings, and the bye to the Big East quarterfinals that comes along with it.

BYU Wins Must-Win In order to have a good shot at an at-large bid, BYU absolutely had to win this game. They had beaten Stanford and Texas earlier in the season, but with bad losses to Portland, Pacific, Pepperdine and Loyola-Marymount, they were clearly sitting on the outside of the Field of 68 heading into this game. This was going to be their last chance for a premier win until the WCC tournament title game, where a win would of course make an at-large bid unnecessary anyway. And BYU won this game, believe it or not, with defense. Gonzaga only had a 44.4 eFG% and committed 16 turnovers (including 9 forced steals) to only 12 assists. That added up to only 0.90 PPP, which tied for their second worst offensive performance of the season.

BYU is still only 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 with four RPI 100+ losses, but their Sagarin PURE_ELO is up to a very bubbly 51st and their RPI is up to 36th (though remember that PURE_ELO will correlate better with final seed on Selection Sunday than RPI). What does BYU need to do to get in? I think they need to win out and get to the WCC title game. If they can do that, they're probably in. But another bad loss without any more RPI Top 50 wins probably knocks them out.

Gonzaga's resume is a lot weaker than you'd think. Gonzaga's only win over an RPI Top 60 opponent is BYU and their RPI is just 28th with a Sagarin PURE_ELO of 30th. They're not on the bubble yet or anything, but it's not out of the question if they lose two more games. Certainly if they somehow lose three more games between now and Selection Sunday they'll be a team that could miss out.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Morning News: New Bracket, Boston College Stuns Syracuse, UCLA Smokes California, Illinois/Minnesota and Colorado/Arizona State

They were going to lose soon anyway.... but to Boston College???

New Bracket Projection It's a Thursday morning, which means that a new bracket projection was posted earlier this morning. I talk about teams like Syracuse, Michigan State and Arizona in more detail there, so click on the link to read it. In short, there were four changes to the Field of 68: Colorado, St. John's, Boston University and Alabama State came in, while Florida State, Oklahoma State, American University and Southern dropped out.

Boston College Stuns Undefeated Syracuse Well, Syracuse had been playing with fire for a while now. Three of their last five wins had come down to the final seconds, and a full 6 of their 12 ACC wins had come by six points or less. And as I say all the time, results in these final-possession games are basically luck - in the long run you're going to lose approximately half of them. Syracuse had been awfully lucky to stay undefeated as long as they did.

Still... how did Boston College even make this a close game? They were going to need a big shooting differential, and that's what they got. The Eagles shot 50% behind the arc while Syracuse was at 17%. And BC was 9-for-10 at the line, including four straight in the final 30 seconds of overtime.

What does this loss mean for Syracuse? It will cost them the #1 ranking in the polls, but otherwise not a whole lot by itself. Syracuse can afford a loss or two, or even three if they win the ACC tournament. But I've been saying for a couple of weeks now that Virginia is the favorite for the ACC regular season title, and now that seems even more clear. Syracuse is going to have to find a way to pull the upset in Charlottesville to win an ACC regular season title. And without it, I think they're going to have to win the ACC tournament to earn a 1 seed.

Boston College has arguably been the most disappointing team in the country this season. Their defense showed some life here, but only after being absolutely atrocious all season long. They entered this game ranked the 324th best defense in the country by Pomeroy, which is far and away the worst of any major conference team. So they have their season highlight, but now they need to figure out how to consistently play better defense.

UCLA Smokes California UCLA controlled this game from the tip. They jumped out to a 14-5 lead and never led by fewer than 9 points in the second half. They actually stretched the lead as large as 26 points briefly before easing off down the stretch. Jordan Adams, who has had a bit of a quiet year this season because of the prominent NBA prospects around him (though he's actually been a better basketball player than last season), dominated here. He finished with 28 points on 12-for-19 shooting, with 5 assists, 5 steals and 6 rebounds.

UCLA has won seven of eight and has now beaten every quality team in the Pac-12 except for Arizona. They're now 10-3 overall in Pac-12 play and 9-5 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI all the way up to 12th, though their Sagarin PURE_ELO is a bit back from that at 19th. The fact that they don't have any huge scalps means that they'd be a 5 or 6 seed if the season ended now, but they could potentially make a run at a 3 or 4 seed if they finish strong.

A win here would have really firmed up California's place in the Field of 68. Instead, they drop to 8-5 in Pac-12 play and 7-8 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Arizona, Oregon and Stanford to go with bad losses to USC and UCSB. Their Sagarin PURE_ELO is a very bubbly 48th. If they can go 3-2 in their final five games then a win in the Pac-12 tourney should get them into the NCAA Tournament. If they go only 2-3 then they'll likely need to win at least a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament.

Minnesota Loses A Crucial Game To Illinois This is just a bad, bad loss for Minnesota. If they can get to 9-9 in conference play then they should go Dancing, and at 8-10 they'll be in contention, but at 6-7 they just could not afford a bad loss to the last placed team in the Big Ten standings. But this was one of those days where a team can't get a shot to fall. The Gophers were 21% on jump shots, including 16% behind the arc. The 41.2 eFG% is their second worst shooting game of the season, and the 0.84 PPP are a season low.

Unless Minnesota wins at Ohio State or Michigan, the home games against Iowa and Penn State are must wins. At 8-10 in Big Ten play, Minnesota can still earn an at-large bid, but they'll probably need to win a couple of games in the Big Ten tournament. Their tough schedule means that their computers numbers are still decent. Their RPI is 45th and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 62nd. But they need to get to at least 8-10 in Big Ten play to have a shot.

Colorado Holds Off Arizona State I presume that most Colorado fans don't know or care, but the Buffaloes were teetering on the edge of my bracket projection last night. I was planning on moving them into the Field of 68, but they had to win this game to do it. As some of their fans had pointed out to me, they probably had a Tournament resume already. And that was true, but I'm just a bit skeptical about Colorado's level of play the past few weeks and whether it's sustainable with a killer road trip to finish the season. But despite looking early in the second half like they might lose this one, Askia Booker took over down the stretch, scoring 8 of Colorado's final 12 points and helping to deliver an important victory.

Colorado is 10-7 against the RPI Top 100, but that might be a bit deceptive. They have those wins over Kansas and Harvard, but in conference play just have this win and a win over Oregon. So while their RPI is 23rd, their Sagarin PURE_ELO is still only 40th, even after this win. They'll get a key chance on Saturday with Arizona on their homecourt to grab a victory to put themselves firmly in the Field of 68. With a loss, however, they're going to have to find a way to get one or two wins out of a brutal three game road stretch to finish the regular season.

The good news for Arizona State is that their six wins in seven games (including the big upset of Arizona) put some space between them and the bubble. Their Sagarin PURE_ELO is still 27th and their RPI is 31st, and with computer numbers like that there's no chance that they'd be an NIT team if the season ended now. With a tough final five games (every single game is losable), Arizona State isn't locked into the Field of 68 yet, but a 3-2 finish should be sufficient.

W-3.5 BP68

The big story in the comments section to these brackets the past few weeks has been Syracuse and me having them as a 2 seed. Honestly, the Boston College upset doesn't really change things too much. Syracuse is still in the same situation: If they can win the ACC tournament then even two or three losses won't knock them from the 1 seed line. But if they lose at least three games before the ACC tournament (and at this point it's pretty unlikely that they'll lose fewer than three games before the ACC tournament) and then fail to win the ACC tournament, I think that's a formula for a 2 seed.

What about the other teams near the top? Michigan State is still a 1 seed, but they're now the least likely of the 1 seeds. That basically represents me being nervous about the Keith Appling injury. And I can tell you that I thought very seriously about moving Arizona back up to a 1 seed and dropping Michigan State to a 2 seed. It won't take much for me to make that move at this point.

Also, Creighton is the new favorite to win the Big East tournament over Villanova. Villanova might be a better team than Creighton, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that Creighton is a match-up nightmare for Villanova. If those two teams play for the Big East tournament title, you have to give the edge to Creighton.

As for the Field of 68 itself, there were four changes since Sunday. Two at-large teams changed, as did two auto bid teams. First, the at-large teams: Colorado and St. John's are in, while Florida State and Oklahoma State are out.

Remember, don't focus too much on "last team in" or "first team out" - that's a concept basically invented by ESPN and Joe Lunardi to eat up television time. But the reality is that with uncertainty in levels of play, uncertainty with the Selection Committee and uncertainty with how many at-large bids will actually be available (since at least one or two auto-bids from multi-bid leagues always get stolen during Championship Week), the difference between "last team in" and "first team out" is almost negligible as far as future probability of making the NCAA Tournament goes. What matters is that teams like Minnesota, Oklahoma State and Colorado are on the bubble. Any of them can get in with a strong finish, and any can fall out with a weak finish.

The two auto-bid changes came in the Patriot League and the SWAC. In the Patriot League, American University has been in a little bit of a tailspin, and after losing head-to-head to Boston University it looks like BU will win the regular season title. So BU is the new favorite. The SWAC is complicated, as Southern remains in first place and is the best team, but it looks most likely that they'll be ineligible for the postseason (the decision isn't final, but for now they're ineligible). So I dropped them for the second best team, Alabama State.

Only three teams were eliminated from at-large contention since the last bracket: Houston, La Salle and Northwestern. That leaves 45 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)

3. Iowa
3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. Michigan
3. Villanova

4. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Virginia
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Cincinnati

5. Wisconsin
5. Iowa State
5. North Carolina
5. Kentucky

6. Texas
6. UCLA
6. Ohio State
6. VCU

7. Memphis
7. SMU
7. UConn
7. Arizona State

8. New Mexico
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Pittsburgh
8. UMass

9. Kansas State
9. Oklahoma
9. Xavier
9. California

10. George Washington
10. Tennessee
10. Stanford
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Missouri
11. Oregon
11. Georgetown
11. Saint Joseph's

12. Colorado
12. Minnesota
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. St. John's
12. Clemson

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)

16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Marquette, Providence, Baylor, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, BYU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, Dayton, Richmond, Nebraska, Indiana State, Boise State, Utah, Arkansas, LSU, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, UTEP, UNLV, Wyoming, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee, Akron, Ohio, Utah State, Oregon State, Washington, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Morning News: Iowa St Handles Texas, Providence Comes Up Just Short, George Washington/Providence And Indiana/Iowa

If you missed it, here's the video of what happened in Assembly Hall yesterday.
 
Iowa State Handles Texas This was always going to be a competitive game, but at home the Cyclones were definitely expected to win. And they were in control all night, holding onto a small lead for almost the entire game and never being particularly tested. With their big front line, Texas was inevitably going to control the glass here, but they struggled to score in and around the paint, finishing only 34% on two-pointers. Iowa State was sharp offensively, finishing with 21 assists to only 6 turnovers.

Texas has won the rebounding battle in 10 of their 13 games, but they lack consistent scorers offensively. When they have lost this season, it's been because they weren't getting easy shots. They are now 2-5 when finishing with an eFG% under 44.5%. When above 44.5%? They're 18-1. Iowa State, on the other hand, puts up points against everybody. They've scored at least 70 points in every game this season, and are averaging 81 points per game in Big 12 play.

In the end, these two teams are really just playing for seed. Neither is likely to really challenge Kansas for the Big 12 title, but both are likely going to finish with something in the 3-7 seed range. At this point, Iowa State has the better resume, and with a relatively easy remaining schedule they should get to at least 11-7 in conference play. Texas has three difficult road games remaining, but at 9-4 they shouldn't finish worse than 11-7 themselves.

Providence Comes Up Just Short Against Villanova This is a mentally crushing loss for Providence. They had multiple chances to pull away in this game, and even had an excellent shot at the end of the game to send this to a third overtime. In the end, it was Ryan Arcidiacono who got to play hero, even if it took him a few chances. Villanova went with the Arcidiacono Iso at the end of regulation and both overtimes, and he performed badly two times before coming through on his third chance.

Even in a loss, Bryce Cotton continues to be amazing. He had 22 points, 9 assists and 7 rebounds here, while playing the full 50 minutes. With only a six man rotation, Providence can't afford to sit Bryce Cotton. In 14 Big East games so far this season, he has sat for a grand total of three minutes while playing six overtime periods. If you do the math on that, that's an average of 41.9 minutes per game in conference play. In fact, four of Providence's five starters played at least 47 of the 50 minutes in this game. It's just hard to win consistently when you get zero production from your bench.

With four of their final five regular season games at home, Villanova should finish the regular season well. They still have an outside case for a 1 seed if they can win the Big East tournament. Providence, on the other hand, has lost five of seven and has dropped to 7-7 in conference play and 6-9 against the RPI Top 100, and are now 62nd in RPI and 57th in the Sagarin PURE_ELO. This home game at Villanova was the one that they really needed. They'll probably need to win three of their final four regular season games to have a realistic at-large chance heading into the Big East tournament.

George Washington Picks Up A Big Win At Richmond George Washington tipped off this game in the Field of 68, but teetering extremely close to the bubble. This win helps ease those concerns. George Washington's offensive attack has been balanced all season long, and it was balanced here, with five different players scoring between 10 and 16 points. Their defense has been better (only the fourth time in their last 11 games that they've allowed more than 1 PPP), but the offense carried them.

This is George Washington's 20th win of the season, and are a solid 3-3 against the RPI Top 50 and 9-6 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 32nd and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 36th. They can now easily afford a loss on Saturday at St. Louis as a 3-1 finish will probably earn them an at-large bid.

Richmond is 7-4 in Atlantic Ten play, but they're just 6-8 against the RPI Top 100 with no really premier wins (UMass, St. Joe's and Dayton are their three best wins). Their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 69th, which combined with their weak set of wins means that they'd definitely be an NIT team if the season ended now. Their home game at VCU on March 2nd is a crucial opportunity for a quality victory. They probably need to win four of their final five games to be in good shape for an at-large bid.

Indiana/Iowa Game Postponed This was just bizarre, as a big piece of metal fell from the ceiling of Assembly Hall onto the seats. Obviously it's really good that this happened when nobody was in the arena. As far as this game goes, the two schools are still trying to come up with a makeup date. Like the Duke/North Carolina game and a whole bunch of other games that have been postponed due to bad weather, it's hard to find a date that doesn't disadvantage at least one of the teams. There just isn't a lot of give in these schedules. But both of these teams absolutely need this win to stay on pace for their goals (a share of the Big Ten regular season title for Iowa and an at-large bid for Indiana), so whenever it gets played it'll be one to watch.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Morning News: Tar Heels Beat Florida St, Baylor Wins A Bizarre Game, Plus Delaware/Towson and Keith Appling

I don't think Travis Ford had a gameplan preseason that involved Phil Forte as a primary playmaker.

Tar Heels Win In Tallahassee Florida State jumped out to an early 17-3 lead in this game, but a quick whistle from the refs didn't work in their favor. North Carolina has a lot more depth than the Seminoles, and the foul trouble for Michael Ojo and Okaro White was a particular problem. Florida State is a poor defensive rebounding team to begin with, and playing much of the game without their two best defensive rebounders meant that it was a free-for-all for the Tar Heels, who finished with a 38.9 OR%.

Much was made on the broadcast of James Michael McAdoo fouling out with no points, but that was vastly overplayed. The media still treats him like a superstar, despite the fact that he really just isn't an elite player. If anything, him on the bench meant more time for Kennedy Meeks, who was suprb (23 points on 11-for-12 shooting). Marcus Paige is UNC's primary playmaker, and despite a slow first half he got going with three huge three-pointers in the second half, finishing with 20 points and 7 assists.

This could be the loss that costs Florida State an NCAA Tournament bid. They are now only 6-8 in the ACC and 5-10 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI and Sagarin PURE_ELO that have both dropped out of the Top 65. Their best win all season is VCU. So if the season ended now, there's no question Florida State would be an NIT. So to make the NCAA Tournament? They will need to win that season finale over Syracuse and go at least 3-1 over their final four games. And even if they achieve that, they'll still have work to do in the ACC tournament.

North Carolina has won seven straight to move to 8-4 in ACC play and 9-5 against the RPI Top 100, with computer numbers across the board that are beginning to creep into the Top 25. At this point, they're basically just playing for Tournament seed. Depending on how they finish, they're probably heading for something in the 4-6 seed range.

Baylor Wins A Bizarre Game Over Oklahoma State Travis Ford has gotten a whole lot of criticism for Oklahoma State's collapse, though I'm not totally sure it's quite fair. The roster has been absolutely gutted. The team was playing like a Top Ten squad until losing Michael Cobbins to injury. The Stevie Clark incident and the Marcus Smart suspension have left Ford with just five players left from his original eight man rotation.

Leyton Hammonds isn't a terrible guy off the bench to play sixth man, but once foul trouble started hitting this team, their roster just became a joke. This game was summed up by Mason Cox managing to get himself in foul trouble with 3 fouls in 5 minutes played in the first half. Mason Cox is a former soccer player who started his college career as a scout team player for the Oklahoma State women's team. Now a senior, he came into this game with a career total of 27 minutes and 3 points. Marek Soucek was another player who came on that I'm pretty sure nobody had heard of before. Travis Ford could have put team managers on the court and nobody would have been able to tell the difference. Phil Forte, who is basically a Brady Heslip style spot-up shooter when Oklahoma State has their starting lineup on the court, was pressed into service as the team's second best offensive playmaker after Markel Brown for about a ten minute stretch.

Watching Scott Drew coach this game was infuriating. He has a pair of front court players who will be in the NBA (and who have a decent chance of being drafted in just a few months) and they were being guarded by walk-ons and scout team players who were clearly completely in over their heads, so naturally Baylor was happy to chuck long jump shots all game. How they didn't just iso whoever was being guarded by Mason Cox on every possession was baffling. Oklahoma State actually took a ten point lead early in the second half, and this might have been the most embarrassing loss of Scott Drew's tenure if they hadn't come back to win in overtime.

This wasn't a pure Tournament elimination game, but the loser of this game was going to be in a deep at-large hole. I think both of these teams will have strong at-large cases if they get to 8-10 in conference play, but it's very rare for a team four games under .500 in conference play (i.e. 7-11) to earn an at-large bid. Baylor is now 5-8, but with three of their final five on the road against Tournament/bubble teams, starting with a road game at West Virginia on Saturday. Oklahoma State drops to 4-9, though with a relatively easier schedule. The home games against Kansas State and Kansas are now basically must-wins to get them to 8-10.

Delaware Falls To Towson I haven't talked about the Colonial too much this year. The league hasn't fared well in conference realignment, and even the historically stronger teams in the league are having down years. The dominant team, however, has been Delaware. They didn't collect any big scalps in non-conference play, but they did come really close, taking Villanova, Notre Dame, Richmond and St. Bonaventure down to the final minute of a road game. They had opened up conference play 11-0, including wins over all over their top rivals, such as a home victory over Towson. Towson got revenge at home here, however. Towson leads the Colonial in defensive 2P% and eFG%, and Delaware was bottled up, finishing with a 35.0 eFG%. That makes this Delaware's worst shooting performance of the entire season.

Delaware is still the overwhelming favorite to win the Colonial regular season title. They have a two game lead over Towson with four games to go. But Towson is now emerging as Delaware's toughest challenger for the Colonial tournament title. In fact, Towson now has a better PPP differential in conference play (+0.12 PPP) than Delaware (+0.08). It's not a significant difference, and both Pomeroy and Sagarin still rate Delaware as the slightly better team overall, but we could see a really fun game between these two teams for the Colonial's auto bid.

Keith Appling Done For The Regular Season? Keith Appling played on Sunday after missing about two weeks due to a wrist injury. He played 19 minutes but was largely ineffective, and now Tom Izzo is suggesting possibly shutting him down for the rest of the regular season to try to get him healthy for the NCAA Tournament. Missing Appling doesn't just cost him his production, but has had a dramatic effect on Gary Harris, who was looking like the Big Ten Player of the Year up until two weeks ago, but has had his stats decline precipitously as perimeter defenses have focused their efforts on shutting him down.

I've talked all season about the need for Michigan State to prioritize getting fully healthy over anything else that can happen in the regular season. A loss on Sunday at Michigan will likely cost them the Big Ten regular season title, and realistically could cost them a 1 seed as well, but I still believe that if they can ever get fully healthy that they're the best team in the country. So Michigan State fans need to hope that somehow this can all work out and all of these players missing all of this time now will pay off when everybody is healthy when the Round of 64 tips off.

Monday, February 17, 2014

Morning News: Nebraska Stuns Michigan St, Creighton Smokes Nova, Wisconsin Wins, And Also Temple/SMU, Georgetown/St. John's and Pat Knight

Somebody needs to get Tim Miles a shorter tie. He always looks like a nervous kid standing along the wall at a school dance.

Nebraska Stuns Michigan State Terran Petteway has been a revelation for Nebraska. After playing poorly on the rare occasions he actually got on the court for Texas Tech two seasons ago, he has emerged as one of the most aggressive scorers in the Big Ten this season. He takes bad shots, and so his efficiency isn't great, but he is clearly more responsible for this successful Nebraska season than any other player. Late in this game, three consecutive made baskets for Nebraska were all deep threes by Petteway... and all three were off-balance, and he was fouled (without it being called) on at least one of them.

The announcers calling this game made much of the fact that Nebraska was 1-7 in true road games this season, but that's a bit deceptive. Six of those seven losses came against Pomeroy Top 25 teams, and there's no shame there. This is a big upset, certainly, but there's no reason to view Nebraska as a team that we should expect to have a larger-than-expected home court advantage (like Arkansas, for example).

Is Nebraska a bubble team? It depends what you mean. If I was doing another bracket projection tonight, I'd move Nebraska up one category, into the "Decent resumes..." category. They are 5-7 against the RPI Top 100 with three RPI 100+ losses, and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 70th. If the season ended now they'd be in the NIT, but they're definitely in at-large contention. What do they need to do to get in? At minimum I think they need a 4-2 finish in Big Ten play. A 4-2 finish plus a couple of Big Ten tournament wins can do it.

This is a concerning performance by Michigan State, who seemed utterly perplexed by Nebraska's defense. Keith Appling was fairly ineffective, but he did play a significant number of minutes. Adreian Payne played well and looks fully healthy now. Branden Dawson is still out, but the Spartans are getting closer to being fully healthy. I still think Michigan State is the best team in the Big Ten if they can ever get fully healthy, but this is the type of loss that can end up costing them a 1 seed.

Creighton Smokes Villanova The first time these two teams played this season, Ethan Wragge hit nine three-pointers and Creighton's 21 three-pointers as a team were a new Big East record. This time, Creighton "only" shot 9-for-15 behind the arc while Doug McDermott went for 39 points on 13-for-17 shooting. Overall in these two games, Creighton has had a 73.9 eFG% and 1.46 PPP. Those are just video game numbers. Villanova actually shot 11-for-22 behind the arc and shot 89% at the line for 1.16 PPP and still got annihilated.

Does this mean Creighton is definitely better than Villanova? Well... it depends what you mean. I do think Villanova matches up poorly defensively against Creighton. They're not good at defending the three, and by selling out to stop the three last night they opened up the paint for McDermott, where Villanova has nobody who can defend him one-on-one. At the same time, for the entire season Creighton hasn't been significantly better than Villanova, and these two shooting performances are pretty fluky. If these two teams played again tomorrow on a neutral court, I might make Creighton a 2 or 3 point favorite, but let's not pretend that Creighton is going to shoot 60% behind the arc every time they play Villanova.

Villanova is 10-0 against Big East teams not named Creighton this season (and their only non-conference loss came on the road at Syracuse), but they're now going to have a really difficult time earning the 1 seed in the Big East tournament. Creighton has a 1 game lead and the tiebreak. Creighton's schedule isn't easy, and they could easily lose a game or two, but Villanova's got several losable games as well.

No matter what happens, both Villanova and Creighton are primed for good NCAA Tournament seeds. They're both likely going to earn something between a 2 or a 4 seed. With the carnage going on with the 1 seeds right now, both teams can still make a run for a 1 seed, but they'll probably need some help during Championship Week.

Wisconsin Wins In Ann Arbor Michigan was out of sorts in the first half of this game, falling behind by as many as 18 points in the first half. They made a run in the second half, but just built themselves too large of a hole to pull out of. Frank Kaminsky was dominant for Wisconsin, scoring 25 points (on 11-for-16 shooting) with 11 rebounds, including the clutch three-pointer that was the effective dagger in this game. Caris LeVert continued his breakout season with 25 points, including 5-for-6 behind the arc, but Wisconsin bottled up both Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III. One quirk from this game was the fact that these two teams combined to attempt 7 layups and dunks while attempting 101 jump shots. To be fair, Wisconsin actually scored 32 points in the paint in this game, and a 6 foot runner will go into the official boxscore as a "jump shot" rather than a "layup". But still, that's a pretty extraordinary differential.

I've talked about this many times before: don't overreact to a small winning streak or losing streak unless there's an obvious reason why a team should be getting significantly better or worse. So it makes sense that Oklahoma State has gotten significantly worse since losing three players from their original eight man rotation. But if you think teams are regularly getting dramatically worse or better every couple of weeks, you're just bad at judging teams. There was massive overreaction to Wisconsin's five losses in six games, which were mostly due to a couple of statistically fluky shooting days, some bad luck in close games and the fact that the Big Ten is really deep (there are no easy games). There was no reason to believe that they weren't still one of the best teams in the Big Ten, and with four straight wins they are right back on track.

Michigan has a week to get ready for their biggest game of the season thus far, at home against Michigan State. A win there will put them a game clear in the Big Ten standings with the tiebreak, and make them the clear favorite for the Big Ten regular season title. A loss won't knock them out of contention, though, as Michigan State has the tougher remaining schedule.

Temple Upsets SMU SMU had been playing really good basketball over the past four or five weeks, and perhaps they were due for a letdown game. And they didn't play well here, shooting poorly from deep (2-for-10 behind the arc), leaving points at the line (54%) and getting beating badly on the boards (12 offensive rebounds for Temple vs 4 for SMU). And while Temple entered this game 1-10 in AAC play, the reality is that they're better than their record. They came into this game 3-9 in games decided by seven points or less. Vegas appears to sense a letdown game also, as casinos had the line for this game between 7.5 and 8.5 points despite the fact that the various computer ratings had the line closer to 11 or 12.

The good news for SMU is that they built up a buffer between them and the bubble that even a loss to Temple can't pierce. Their RPI is only 49th, but they're 3-3 against the RPI Top 50 and their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 39th. If the season ended now they'd definitely be in the Field of 68. They've got three difficult games and two easy games remaining. If they can take one of the three difficult games and avoid any more bad losses, that should be enough to get them Dancing.

St. John's Crushes Georgetown This game was never competitive. After 8 possessions, St. John's led 15-0, and by halftime the lead was up to 18. Georgetown made a little run in the second half, briefly getting as close as 7, but it was just too large of a deficit to overcome. Georgetown's defense has actually been pretty good this season at keeping opponents away from the rim - opponents take only 34.9% of their shots at the rim, which is well below the national average. But D'Angelo Harrison and Rysheed Jordan torched the Georgetown perimeter defense at will. The two combined for 48 points on 15-for-26 shooting, including 14 free throw attempts.

Both of these teams are hanging around the bubble, and this is a huge result for the Johnnies. They've won 7 of their last 8 Big East games, and are now 17-6 overall with wins over Creighton, Marquette, Providence and Georgetown, along with bad losses to DePaul and Penn State. They're only 1-5 against the RPI Top 50, but their Sagarin PURE_ELO is up to 41st. Historically, it's very rare for a team inside the PURE_ELO Top 40 to miss out on an at-large bid - it happens maybe once per year - so the Johnnies might actually be in the Field of 68 if the season ended now. What do they need to do the rest of the way? I think a 3-2 finish and then a win or two in the Big East tournament will more likely than not earn St. John's an at-large bid.

Georgetown had won four straight after their five game losing streak, but this loss drops them back down to 6-7 in conference play and 5-8 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that is 58th. Their Sagarin PURE_ELO is 46th, and that's right around where teams are 50/50 to earn an at-large bid. But my guess is, based on their rest of their resume, that if the season ended now Georgetown would be in the NIT. They're going to have to go at least 3-2 down the stretch to earn an at-large bid, and realistically have to go 4-1 or else they'll have to do a lot of damage in the Big East tournament. Thursday's game at Seton Hall is one to watch out for, as the Hoyas will probably be a one or two point underdog but really have to win or risk careening off the bubble altogether.

Lamar Fires Pat Knight Well, I suppose the only surprise is that Lamar didn't wait until the end of the season to fire Pat Knight. He took a senior-laden squad to the NCAA Tournament in his first season, but they've been a horrific 6-50 since, with zero signs of improvement. You generally don't like to see college coaches fired midseason, but if this season was getting toxic in the locker room then you've got to pull the plug.

Pat Knight is still a young guy, but at this point he's got to go be an assistant somewhere or he's got to work at a non-Division I school. I just don't see how you can give the reins of your team to a guy who has failed so badly in his first two stops, and who hasn't shown the ability to run a program. If I was an AD, I wouldn't hire him for his "worst group of seniors right now that I've ever been associated with" rant alone.