Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Catching Up

Just a quick catch-up for action from the past few days that I haven't talked about yet. I won't discuss any of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, as I'll have a post mortem after all of the games are over:

#4 Kansas 76, Arizona 72, OT
Kansas showed a lot of toughness pulling out a good win at home. They're going to be pretty tough to beat at Allen Fieldhouse this year. Don't be fooled by Arizona's lack of a ranking, as they're a very talented team. They shot well (48% from behind the arc) and got to the line (21 times) in this one. Kansas struggled to pull out close games last year, so this was a welcome turn of events for Jayhawks fans. This game was won with ballhandling, and I hope Arizona gets that under control when Lute Olson gets back. Chase Budinger will be a household name soon enough, and he should be leading this team far into the Tournament. But they're going to have to pull out some of these close games to build the resume for a top seed.

USC 70, #18 Southern Illinois 45
A shocking result for sure. What intrigued me about this game was how Southern Illinois came up with a gameplan, succeeded in achieving what they wanted to achieve, and lost big anyway. The Salukis have some great perimeter defenders, and can shut down just about anybody on any given day. So coming into this one, you'd figure that if you could contain OJ Mayo, Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson that you would beat USC. And SIU did that for the most part, holding that trio to 25 points. No worries, though, because freshman Davon Jefferson came out of nowhere to post 18. More production came from other players coming off the bench. Meanwhile, SIU looked a bit unsure of itself on offense. They had only played three games before this point, and none against an elite team or hostile crowd. I think they perform a whole lot better if this game is in another month. I wouldn't jump off the SIU bandwagon yet - this result says more about how deep USC is than about SIU not being a very good team.

Davidson 71, Appalachian State 60
Yes, we have now have had a major intra-conference matchup. In November. What did we learn here? Davidson is going to run through the SoCon. Stephen Curry hit nine three-pointers as Davidson won on the road against their only real competition for the conference title. Don't be surprised to see Davidson run the table in the SoCon this season. And they will need it if they want a decent seed, because the Western Michigan loss really took the shine off this very-hyped team. Assuming they don't win on the road at Duke or UCLA, a matchup at NC State is their only remaining shot to build the resume. The recent criticism of Davidson is that they can beat bad teams, but lose to good teams. They went 0-5 against the RPI Top 100 last year, and need to prove that they can beat someone good this year.

UMass 107, Syracuse 100
A crazy game all around, and UMass walks out with the big win. I have to admit that I'm pleasantly surprised by the Minutemen this year, in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year without Stephane Lasme and Rashaun Freeman. With this win, they're already back on the bubble. UMass won this game with great shooting, but they were getting a ton of layups and easy put-ins as well. Syracuse has some very talented offensive players, but they don't seem quite as motivated to make great plays on defense. 97 points to Siena? 91 points to Washington? 80 points to Fordham? Yikes. Jonny Flynn and Donte Greene are a very talented freshman duo, but they need to play with a little bit more maturity. We don't need to see you pose for the cameras every time you score two points. Try holding teams to under 100 points before you start showing off. Sorry... I didn't mean to turn into Jay Mariotti. I wouldn't care about the preening and showing off if Syracuse won some big games and played some good defense. This is a very talented team, but defense like this will mean a repeat trip to the NIT.

Monday, November 26, 2007

New Sponsorship & Partnership

I'd like to take a brief moment to talk about something other than the most recent results. First of all, many of you have noticed my new sponsor in the "Sponsors" section (right underneath the "Partner Websites" section). TickCo is a direct competitor of Stubhub, and the two sites seem to be basically identical. So if you want to buy tickets to events, do me a favor and buy them through the link on my blog. Everything I post on this blog is free, and I don't ever ask for any money from anybody. I put a lot of time into this, and a little bit of sponsorship money helps. I don't get a piece of each sale (my payment is a flat yearly fee), but the more of you who buy tickets through TickCo the more likely they'll want to continue our relationship. You're going to be buying tickets anyway, so help me out by buying them through my link.


Also, I've been invited to take part in Basketballforum.com. The idea will be to write a longer column once every week or two on a deeper issue. Everything that I write there will be simul-posted here as well, so there won't be anything that I write that won't be available here. But it looks like an interesting community, and something that people who visit here might want to be part of as well. My first blog post is up, and as promised, here it is:


I'd like to introduce myself to BasketballForum.com. My name is Jeff and I run the website BasketballPredictions. I was invited here by "TM" in what I hope will be a symbiotic relationship.

I'm not going to post here daily, because anybody who wants my daily updates can just visit my blog. What I plan on doing is to write weekly or bi-weekly columns where I can go in-depth into real issues. I'm not going to have any "These are who I think are the Top 5 teams in the country" posts, because I don't think that really adds anything. A few ideas that I've already begun to flesh out will be discussions on:

1) Different approaches to "bracketology"
2) Different approaches to team rankings (namely, Top 25 polls)
3) Different approaches to ranking conferences
4) The Big Ten Network - what the real issues are (and why they aren't the ones being discussed)
5) Expanding The Tournament, creating more tournaments, and expanding conference tournaments.... or not?


I won't necessarily write about them in that order, but those are five issues that I think are fundamental to college basketball discussions. I also am very open to other ideas that others would like to discuss. At this point I'd like to open up the floor. Let's "explore the canvas."

So, what would you like to talk about?

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Recapping the Action

With Thanksgiving Break over, I'll be back to regular blog posts. So without further ado, a rather long recap of the best action since Turkey Day:

George Mason 87, #20 Kansas State 77
#19 Villanova 84, George Mason 76
A good set of tests for Jim Larranaga's boys. The Kansas State win is certainly a resume builder, although K-State was probably over-ranked at #20. The Villanova matchup was a very close one the entire way (the final score was actually deceptively large), although I'm still not sure what to make of Jay Wright's team. They could be a Top 15 team, but they could also end up as a bubble team. Either way, the fact is that Mason is for real this year. Will Thomas has been a monster on the inside (averaging 17 and 11) and they are oozing with experienced talent. The only real longterm question I have with this team is its depth. Larranaga starts 3 seniors and 2 juniors, and doesn't use much else. His bench is averaging a combined 10.4 points per game. The problem with a lack of depth is that the team eventually wears out. Plus, any injury is really a killer. Remember last year's Alabama team which had an outstanding starting five and almost nothing else, and ended up missing the Tournament. If George Mason can find a little bit more depth then they will be in great shape for a Tournament bid. But don't write them in your bracket with ink quite yet.

#18 Southern Illinois 63, Mississippi State 49

The Salukis have had a very quiet start to their season. They were one of the last teams in the nation to play their first game, and they haven't had much in the way of national tv exposure yet. There haven't been many opportunities, with only three games in the bank so far. But this lack of exposure means that a lot of people are sleeping on this team. You may not believe this, but these guys are almost definitely better than the 18th best team in the country. I still only have them as 5-seed in the BP65 simply because the Missouri Valley is a little bit down this year, which means that the Salukis can only get a 3 or 4 seed if they completely run through the conference. And I just don't see that as a likely scenario. But, make sure you get a chance to watch these guys play. Their defense is, as always, absolutely ferocious. And they have a very experienced trio of Randal Falker, Bryan Mullins and Matt Shaw that can put up points on the offensive end. Most people will be in their homes tonight, and you probably have cable or satellite, so pop onto ESPN2 at 11pm ET tonight. SIU plays USC in what could be a coming-out game for this team.

#15 Texas A&M 70, Ohio State 47
A final score that is a big mind-boggling, to say the least. A&M has been playing well, but nothing too special. And Ohio State had looked good. With Michigan State struggling, Indiana with question marks and Wisconsin still unproven, Ohio State was looking like a possible favorite in the Big Ten. Of course, I wouldn't necessarily consider this a sign of things to come. This Ohio State team is actually better offensively than they were last year (although obviously, without Oden, inferior on the defensive end and in the rebounding game). They simply couldn't shoot if their life depended on it in this one. The final count was 25% shooting and 4-21 from behind the arc. So was this a superior defensive effort on the part of the Aggies, or was this just an aberration by the Buckeyes? I'm leaning more towards the latter. Even if you didn't see the game, you can check out the box score: A&M only forced five turnovers the entire game. The defense did a great job, for sure, but this result was a fluke. I think these teams are still comparable in overall talent, and I wouldn't count Ohio State out of the Big Ten race yet. I'd say that this result says more about A&M, which has proved that they can win big games in the post-Billy Gillespie era. I doubted this team after Gillespie jumped ship, but I'm becoming a believer.

Texas Tech 73, #14 Gonzaga 63

Again, something of a fluky score. Texas Tech hasn't looked too good this season, other than this game, so I wouldn't jump on their bandwagon quite yet. But I'm highlighting this game because of the emergence of talented junior Alan Voskuil. After coming off the bench his first two years, he has exploded for 15 points per game this year on 61% shooting. In this game he put up 28 points, 7 boards, 4 assists and 4 steals while playing great perimeter defense. Hardly anybody outside of the state of Texas has heard of this kid yet, but don't be surprised to see him make a cameo on the All-Big 12 team.

#16 Texas 97, #7 Tennessee 78
Everyone thought that the Longhorns were all about Kevin Durant last year, but he was just one of the many talented players that Rick Barnes has brought into Austin. Witness DJ Augustin and AJ Abrams, who torched the Vols for 44 points on 16-29 shooting. The only question mark with the Horns is on the inside, where I'm not completely sold on sophomore center Connor Atchley yet. Rick Barnes has two tall freshmen to work with as well, in Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman. Expect to see one or both of them get some extended time as Barnes tries to put together the team with the best shot to win the Big 12. Kansas is still the more talented team, but Texas has the more impressive wins so far.

W-16 BP65

Sorry, but no time for anything more than just the new BP65. I hope to have another update later today:



1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. INDIANA (BIG 10)
2. Duke

3. Texas
3. Louisville
3. Arizona
3. Michigan State

4. Marquette
4. Washington State
4. Ohio State
4. Alabama

5. Mississippi State
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Wisconsin

6. UConn
6. Texas A&M
6. Pittsburgh
6. Missouri

7. Washington
7. Syracuse
7. Florida
7. Clemson

8. Kentucky
8. Oregon
8. USC
8. BYU (MWC)

9. Illinois
9. Kansas State
9. Notre Dame
9. North Carolina State

10. BUTLER (HORIZON)
10. Villanova
10. Virginia
10. Arkansas

11. Creighton
11. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
11. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

12. VCU
12. Oklahoma State
12. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
12. Stanford

13. Georgia Tech
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. hOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. MARIST (MAAC)
15. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)

16. SOUTHERN UTAH (SUMMIT)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, George Washington, Rhode Island, Depaul, West Virginia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Purdue, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Houston, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, San Diego State, California, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Utah State

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, High Point, Drexel, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Bradley, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona State, Bucknell, Appalachian State, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Alabama, San Diego, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Hawaii

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Feast Week Update

Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Posting frequency always drops around the holidays, but I'll give everyone a quick update on the action from "Feast Week" so far:

Miami 64, Providence 58
Another decent win for Miami, a team that has obviously been a pleasant surprise so far. No world beaters, but wins over Providence and VCU are decent wins, as both of those squads should finish in the RPI Top 100. Speaking of the RPI, for what it's worth, Miami is 9th in the country right now. The immediate counter is: Yeah, and Sam Houston State is 2nd. I'll give you that, but Sam Houston State has only played one game, which means that their RPI is irrelevant. Miami is 4-0 (3-0 against D-I opponents) against a very decent schedule. The most pleasant surprise for this Hurricanes team has been sophomore James Dews, who has really taken a step up this year. After sitting on the bench for most of last year, he's now scoring 12 points per game on 10-for-20 from behind the arc. Don't expect this team to go Dancing, but they're worth keeping an eye on, as I think they'll stay in the bubble picture for atleast a couple of months.

Missouri 84, Maryland 70

Mizzou fans have got to be encouraged by the steady improvement that this team is making. The defense (40 Minutes of Hell, Version 2.0) is still strong. But the offense is much more under control this year. Last year this team often worked too fast than their ballhandlers could handle, leading to a lot of easy turnovers. In this game, Maryland even pressed the issue by playing a bit of occasional three-quarter court press themselves. But Mizzou kept turnovers to a minimum (ten, to Maryland's 23). Personally, I'm not very impressed with Maryland. I think this is a rebounding year for them. I don't buy James Gist as that much of a star, and his backup staff is too young and inexperienced. Maryland could be good next year, but I can't see them in the Tournament this year. But back to Missouri, I like their array of talent. Everyone expected Stefhon Hannah to be an All-Big 12 candidate, but they're getting production from other players. Leo Lyons is developing as a force on the inside, putting up 23 and 11 here against the Terps. I also really like Darryl Butterfield, who outhustled everybody he was matched up against and earned a career-high 27 minutes.

#1 UCLA 68, #10 Michigan State 63
It took Kevin Love all of 90 seconds to learn about Michigan State basketball. He went up for a rebound and came down with a bloody nose. Early on it was clear that UCLA simply hadn't seen anyone play as physical as the Spartans, who feature quite a few guys whose skills I would define as "five fouls". But UCLA is young and very talented, and they got their act together eventually. They took their first lead of the game with about 30 seconds to go, and Drew Neitzel missed badly on an attempt to tie. Now, neither of these teams were at full strength. UCLA was short Darren Collison. And Drew Neitzel had a really bad flu. He toughed out most of the second half after missing much of the first, but was clearly not himself. Now, it's not fair to judge a team after playing the #1 team in the country, but I have to say that I don't really see a whole lot out of Michigan State this year. They are only marginally better than last year's team, because they're basically playing the same players as last year. The one newcomer is freshman Kalin Lewis, who has been starting, but has yet to really establish himself. This team should still be in the hunt in the Big 10, but I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if they lose a few straight in conference and drop out of the Top 25. I would have dropped them in the most recent BP65, but I didn't quite know who to bring up (and the winner of the Big 10 will certainly get atleast a #2 seed). I don't think Indiana will have the consistency to win day in and day out and go 15-3 or 16-2 in the Big 10. Ohio State and Wisconsin have both looked good so far, and both of those are clear contenders for the conference. Illinois also deserves discussion, although I really can't see this team winning the Big 10. I see their ceiling as 4th place, and I'd probably put them 5th right now. Quite a bit will be settled in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge.

Saint Mary's 99, #11 Oregon 87

Everyone has been proclaiming this an "epic" upset, but that's apparently because they haven't been reading this blog. As I've been trying to say in posts like this and this, this Oregon team is way overrated. They are a marginal Top 25 team. Still, you say, they lost to St. Mary's - that's like losing to Gardner Webb! And you'd be wrong. Everyone knows Gonzaga, but few outside the west coast realize that St. Mary's has been the second best team out of the West Coast Conference for some time. Last year they finished with a Sagarin Rating of 79th, and were even a bubble team for a brief time in February. Not only that, but they've been great at home, with a 35-11 record since the beginning of the 2004-05 season. This should help Oregon fans realize that they aren't getting a #2 or #3 seed, but they should also realize that this loss isn't worth jumping off a bridge. This won't be a "bad loss" on the resume, and Oregon is still one of the better teams in a Pac-10 that has been pretty disappointing so far.

Ohio State 79, #21 Syracuse 65

Another solid performance for an Ohio State that was clearly underrated by the national punditry in preseason polls. As I said earlier this blog post, I've been somewhat disappointed with Michigan State so far. Indiana has looked great so far, but I don't think they will have the consistency to win every night in the Big 10. Kelvin Sampson tends to just throw his great talent on the floor and let them play basketball, which is a style of play that sometimes backfires. More consistency comes from teams that play "systems", where the team play is more important than any of the individuals. You can get away with not having a system if you have overwhelming talent (see: Kansas), but system teams can thrive without star players and are more consistent because if one player struggles you can bring in his backup without losing much. As for Indiana's Big Ten challengers, I consider both Michigan State and Wisconsin to be "system" teams. At its best, Indiana will probably be better than both the Spartans and the Badgers. But I think Bucky and Sparty will be more consistent, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either of those two teams win the conference. But the reason I'm talking about this in a post about a Buckeye win is because I think Ohio State might slowly be turning into the favorite to win the Big 10. They are oozing talent, and so much of it is already flourishing. Kosta Koufos, for one, has been incredibly impressive on the offensive end. He has an array of outstanding scoring moves, and should be a good NBA player some day. He might only stick around for one year, but it's going to be a heck of a year.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Sunday Morning Update

I know that most people are more interested in late-season college football action than early-season college basketball action, but there have been some important basketball games over the past couple of days. In case you spent yesterday absorbed in college football, I'll give you an update of the most important recent results:

Clemson 84, Mississippi State 82
This was a very important game, although you wouldn't have known it from the complete lack of coverage. I guess these two teams simply aren't very sexy, and are generally overshadowed by their more famous intra-conference counterparts. If you scroll down to my most recent BP65, I think that both of these teams are severely underrated, and both should be real threats to make a Sweet 16 run. What was interesting in this game was the contrast in strengths. Mississippi State showed its power on the inside, getting a dozen boards apiece from Jarvis Varnado and Jamont Gordon. Neither team shot well from outside, but Clemson did a great job of getting to the line. A remarkable 38 free throws, outdoing even the 31 free throws for the Bulldogs. What made the difference in this game wasn't just the seven extra free throws, but what they did with those free throws, ending up making nine extra free throws. How often does it get said: free throws are the most underrated part of basketball, and can make or break a lot of games singlehandedly. I still think MSU is the slightly better team, and I'm keeping them ranked ahead of Clemson for now. Let's also remember that Clemson got off to a great start last year, and that didn't end well either.

Providence 72, #18 Arkansas 58
This was made out as a bigger upset that it really was. Providence isn't that great of a team, but neither is Arkansas . They were way over-ranked. In my mind, this is a bubble team at best that will pay for messing up its coaching situation over the offseason. The real problem for Arkansas in this particular game was ballhandling, where 32 turnovers led to 13 extra shots for Providence. If you're going to struggle with guard play, atleast you should enforce your will on the inside, but Steven Hill only got 13 minutes of playing time and the Razorbacks actually got outrebounded.

#3 Memphis 81, UConn 70
A very entertaining game, for those that got a chance to watch it - even with a somewhat-subdued Dick Vitale. Throughout the first seven or eight minutes, Memphis simply looked unbelievable. Anyone who saw the first seven minutes and turned off the rest of the game is voting Memphis #1 in the country on Monday's ballot. UConn also looked awful, but ended up making an epic comeback to actually take a small lead at the half. Memphis then enforced their will in the second half, and ended up with a somewhat deceptive final score. The star of this game was obviously Chris Douglas-Roberts, who went for 33 points on 14-for-24 from the field. But we already knew that Memphis was a great team, and that "CDR" can give other teams fits. What impressed me was that UConn finally looked good, for the first time since the 2006 Tournament. Experience and leadership was in very short supply last year, and it appears like they'll get it from Jeff Adrien this year. His final stat-line is unimpressive, but he got his team back in the game and built up confidence for AJ Price and Stanley Robinson. A final observation was that Hasheem Thabeet was practically invisible. Some day this guy is probably going to get it, but right now he is still all potential. He was, at best, the fifth best UConn player on the floor in this game.

Siena 79, #20 Stanford 67
Like the Arkansas-Providence game, the biggest surprise was actually that anybody thought Stanford was a top-20 team. Siena has been putting up points on everybody this year, and has an excellent shot to win the MAAC. There is also history in this game, for those who can remember back to the 1989 Tournament when the 14th seeded Saints took out the 3rd seeded Cardinal. The real surprise of this game was the 3-point shooting. The general style of games between elite teams and small conference teams is that the elite team dominates the 2-point area while the small conference team launches threes. See the Gardner Webb-Oklahoma game for a perfect example of this in action. In the Stanford-Siena game, however, the Saints only took 16 three-points compared to 31 for Stanford. I know that Stanford is missing a Lopez brother, but they still have far more athleticism than this Siena team. Settling for all these three pointers rather than pushing the action showed a devastating lack of confidence. They only forced 11 fouls on Siena, as well as only 8 turnovers. All in all, an awful performance for a Stanford team that is a bubble team at best. Their only hope of feeling comfortable as Selection Sunday arrives is for this team to get its act together when (if?) the Lopez brothers are reunited on the floor.

Cleveland State 69, Florida State 66
To be fair, FSU simply had a collectively awful day from the field. They shot 35% from the field and an atrocious 1-for-14 from behind the arc. Unlike Stanford in their aforementioned loss to Siena, FSU made the smart decision to press the action. They got to the foul line 31 times and made an excellent 29 of them. They couldn't force a whole lot of turnovers, but got enough to stay in the game. Obviously, a bad loss for Florida State. But Leonard Hamilton is a very good coach, as he showed in this game by doing everything he could to try to win this game for the Noles. FSU made a good decision in extending his contract. All in all, though, I think FSU just doesn't have the overall set of basketball players to be a real factor in the ACC. They should be a bubble team, but they have to show some improvement before anyone starts putting them in a bracket.

USC West 85, USC East 75
Okay, that title was a bit of a joke. Nobody from out of the SEC calls South Carolina "USC", but I couldn't pass up this rare meeting between these two teams. South Carolina is a rebuilding team, and they will show improvement throughout this year, but I think they're atleast a year away from their recruiting class paying real dividends. As for Southern Cal, it remains to be seen how they will find a comfortable equilibrium with the headline-stealing OJ Mayo. Even in this game, the story was "OJ Mayo scored 29 and led the Trojans to a victory over South Carolina", when the story should have been "Sophomore Daniel Hackett had a coming-out game with a triple-double over the Gamecocks". This USC team has a ton of talent, but I just don't think that Tim Floyd will be able to handle all of these personalities and the media attention.

Wisconsin 78, Colorado 52
It was easy to ignore Wisconsin's big wins over basketball powerhouses Savannah State and Florida A&M, but after this result it's hard to miss how good this Badgers team is looking. The consensus in the preseason was that this team wouldn't be able to score without Alando Tucker. But anybody who's followed Wisconsin in the Bo Ryan era knows that this is a system offense that actually works best when there isn't a single star. Wisconsin spent too much team getting away from a pure swing offense last year while watching Tucker create Sportscenter highlights by himself. This year's team is getting back to the basics, showing great teamwork and passing on the offensive end. In addition, expect Big Ten opponents to be shocked at how Trevon Hughes has turned into a star overnight. Last year he showed talent coming off the bench, but often had too much energy and lost control and doing as much harm to his own team as to his opponents. So far this year he has been in control and is scoring about 20 points per game while being a force on the defensive end. With Michigan State struggling and question marks remaining about Indiana, don't be surprised if Wisconsin becomes a real contender for the Big Ten title.

Virginia 75, #17 Arizona 72
There's no reason for Wildcat fans to jump off a bridge here. They should have Lute Olson back soon. Virginia came in here looking for revenge after getting blown out in their last trip to Arizona, two years ago. And the Cavaliers simply wouldn't miss the shots that they got, going 57% from behind the arc and 87% from the line. Arizona had a shot to win this, with the ball under Virginia's basket and down by one with about 20 seconds to go. But the inbounds pass-and-catch went awry and Virginia got a hold of the loose ball and hit both free throws. Zona then had a few shots at the tie but couldn't get any to drop. This is a good Virginia team that has really impressed in the early going, and this win could go a long way towards strengthening their Tournament resume. I still think Arizona is the second best team in the Pac-10, so they should still have plenty of good games to look forward to.

W-17 BP65

With Saturday night's games over, I'll update the first in-season BP65. More on the most recent games in the near future. 17 weeks until Selection Sunday... not really that far (Note, I made an edit to this post at just before 1pm ET, because I realize I left Oregon out. I still think they're wildly overrated, but they will probably make the Tournament. I don't feel like this is cheating on my BP65 schedule, because I still got this final version in before any games were completed on Sunday):


1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)
2. Arizona

3. Duke
3. Louisville
3. Indiana
3. Texas

4. Washington State
4. Ohio State
4. Alabama
4. Marquette

5. UConn
5. Mississippi State
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. GONZAGA (WCC)

6. Wisconsin
6. Pittsburgh
6. Missouri
6. Washington

7. Clemson
7. Syracuse
7. Florida
7. Kentucky

8. USC
8. Texas A&M
8. BYU (MWC)
8. North Carolina State

9. Kansas State
9. Illinois
9. Villanova
9. Arkansas

10. Texas Tech
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Virginia
10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma State
11. Creighton
11. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Michigan
12. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. Stanford

13. Georgia Tech
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. hOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. YALE (IVY)
15. MARIST (MAAC)
15. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)

16. SOUTHERN UTAH (SUMMIT)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Xavier, Depaul, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Oklahoma, George Mason, Houston, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, San Diego State, California, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Utah State

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, High Point, Drexel, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Bradley, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona State, Bucknell, Appalachian State, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Alabama, San Diego, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Hawaii

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Better to Lose Than to Win?

#1 North Carolina 72, Davidson 68
Obviously the game of the year so far. Nobody who follows college basketball closely was surprised that Davidson hung in here. In fact, they really missed a lot of opportunities. Their shooting was rather poor by their standards (4 for 22 from behind the arc). Poor William Archambault must have missed four layups, and even Stephen Curry was only 8-22 from the field (although part of that was great defense and the fact that he forced a bunch of shots towards the end of the game). Davidson was clearly the team with more energy and with more hustle. Carolina showed moments of brilliance, and clearly ooze with individual talent, but they would have lost without an excellent coaching job from Roy Williams. His first good decision was to start an occasional full-court, or 3/4-court press, to force his players to pick up their energy and intensity. His second good decision was to recognize that Tyler Hansbrough could easily outrebound the whole Davidson team by himself, and so spent much of the game playing four smalls with Psycho-T as the only big. This gave Carolina a big speed advantage, while maintaining a rebounding advantage.

One thing that you have to wonder is whether it's almost a good thing for Davidson to lose this game. They obviously have a lot of confidence after playing closely with the #1 team in the land. However, you had to wonder about the hype getting to these guys. If they won this game they'd immediately jump into the Top 15 in the country and they'd face a ton of pressure all year long. Every one of their opponents would be out to get them, and the regular season would become exhausting. They'd be too tired, and too much of a marked target to make a Cinderella run in the Tournament. The way their schedule is lining up, they really only have four games the rest of the way that they have a reasonable shot of losing, and all happen on the road and before Christmas (App State 11/26, Duke 12/1, UCLA 12/8, NC State 12/21). After that, they could easily go undefeated the rest of the way (though watch out for a home game against App State in the final week of the regular season. I could easily see Davidson go 25-3 in the regular season. If they can go undefeated in conference and take out one of their three big remaining out-of-conference games then they could see something like a 5-8 seed. If they can beat Duke or UCLA then they can probably lose one bad game and still get an at-large. But, really, the margin of error is slim. It will be much better for Davidson to stay as far under the radar as possible. It's just so hard to keep winning with so much pressure on every single game.

Butler 76, Indiana State 48
A pretty surprising result in a game that should have been a bigger deal than it was. With everyone jumping on the Gardner Webb bandwagon, a team with one fluke win and that will certainly fade and be lucky to even get an automatic bid and a 14-seed, college basketball analysts would do better to talk about actual good teams from the mid-majors. I have doubted Butler's at-large chances this year (they are still the heavy favorites to win the Horizon, and I put them in the most recent BP65 as a #13 seed), but they are off to a great start. It's hard to imagine a better game than this: 12-for-23 from behind the arc, 16-for-17 from the line, all while holding the Sycamores to 33% shooting from the field. Indiana State got off to a slow start and never recovered. Butler has got a great schedule set up for a possible at-large run, with Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State and Bradley at home (not to mention this game at home against the Sycamores). Then they have a game at Southern Illinois. This gives them quite a few shots at reasonable "quality" wins. If they can win a couple of these, and keep their bad losses to a minimum, a repeat at-large seed (i.e. a seed of 12 or better) is a real possibility. And if I'm going to compliment Butler's scheduling, I have to show surprise at the poor scheduling for Indiana State. They only have one half-way decent out-of-conference opponent (at Purdue, on December 1st). And since Purdue will likely finish in the 2nd half of the Big 10, this basically assures Indiana State of a mediocre out-of-conference resume at best. This means that the only way Indiana State will get an at-large bid will be with an 11-7 conference record or better (meaning something along the lines of a 19-9 total regular season record) and a big in-conference win (like at Southern Illinois). Even that might not be enough. You've got to take more shots at a big win, and this poor scheduling could cost Indiana State an at-large bid this year.

Bradley 65, Iowa State 56
Iowa State has really struggled so far without big man Wes Johnson, who is recovering from a sprained ankle. I didn't see this game on tv, and after seeing that Bradley out-shot the Cyclones by seven attempts, I assumed this meant that the Braves had dominated the boards in Johnson's absence. Rather, it seems that ballhandling was the issue, as Bradley forced 12 steals. This is Iowa State's first loss, and certainly Bradley isn't a "bad" loss. But a 10 point win over Centenary and a 14 point win over Winston-Salem can't have anybody too excited in Ames. Obviously, Iowa State's season is far from over. They have a slew of good out-of-conference games (for which I certainly give them kudos). They can get right back on board if they can beat Minnesota at home on Tuesday. But in the end, I just don't see it. Iowa State simply does not look very good this year. Bradley, meanwhile, has a nice bounce-back win here after the bad loss to Illinois-Chicago. They still have a bunch of shots at a good out-of-conference win, and there are always good wins to be had in the Missouri Valley. I wouldn't bet on this Bradley team making the Tournament, but they should be in the discussion for most of the year.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Tuesday Morning Update

Virginia 90, Vermont 72
I have been skeptical at how Virginia could play without one half of its dynamic duo. As I said in my ACC preview, they could be a Sean Singletary injury away from last place in the ACC. But I was impressed at how a few of the second tier players from last year's team stepped up and had good performances against a decent Vermont team. Adrian Joseph profited from some Singletary assists for 19 points and 6 boards. Mamadi Diane went for 10 and 8. One thing to wonder about is that lack of freshman production, as only one (Jeff Jones) got anything but garbage minutes. Still, if so many of their returning players improved over the offseason, Virgina could be a pretty good team this season. Don't count them out in this year's at-large battle.

Northern Iowa 75, UMass 68
Yet another good win for Northern Iowa. They had homefield advantage for this BTI Tip Off Tournament, but had to play three pretty good teams. Northern Illinois and Cal Poly are decent teams, though nothing for a Missouri Valley team to write home about. But UMass is a pretty good team this year, and UNI dealt with them pretty handily. The star of the show was Eric Coleman, a 6'6" inside man for the Panthers. He concluded a solid tournament with a 21 and 13 on 8-for-10 shooting from the field.

#8 Indiana 99, Chattanooga 79

Yet another in a line of star freshmen with a huge day on opening night. Now, some of these freshmen haven't really earned the hype so far, because some are just taking all the shots. OJ Mayo obviously thought he was still in high school, taking nearly half of his team's shots. We'll see if Tim Floyd can get him under control, because he does have some very talented teammates. Eric Gordon, on the other hand, was simply spectacular. Not many freshmen have their names chanted by the home crowd on opening night, but Gordon deserved it. He scored 33 points, but only on 15 shots from the field. He was a remarkable 7-for-11 from beyond the arc, with a very smooth-looking shot. There have been a lot of impressive freshmen in the early start of the season, but Gordon and Kevin Love have looked the most impressive. We'll see how that holds up as these guys play more games.

#10 Duke 86, New Mexico State 61

An impressive start for the Blue Devils, who look a lot better than last year. This team was really devoid of playmakers last year, and this year they suddenly have too many. DeMarcus Nelson was good as usual, and there was also improved play for Greg Paulus and Gerald Henderson. With a good opener from Kyle Singler, and 22 points from Jon Scheyer off the bench, they almost have too many good players. You also saw hints that Brian Zoubek could be a good player on the inside, especially as a large presence on the defensive end. New Mexico State looked pretty good in front of the Cameron Crazies, but they were no match for Coach K's latest ACC powerhouse. The defense was great last year, but now they have the offense to match it.

Syracuse 97, Siena 89
A decent opener for the Orangemen. Yet another big freshman performance, this one from Syracuse's Jonny Flynn. He was simply on fire from downtown, shooting 6-for-7. In all, a Syracuse freshman premier record of 28 points. Certainly, that was the good news for Syracuse. The bad news was a swiss cheese defense that allowed 89 points to Siena. It's still early in the season, we'll see how things improve. I still think Syracuse will be a very good and motivated team this season.

Ohio State 91, Wisconsin-Green Bay 68
A good start for the Buckeyes, with solid performances all around. Everybody knew that Jamar Butler (17 points and 10 assists) and Othello Hunter would be stars, but David Lighty clearly looks like he's made the leap as well. After spending most of last year on the bench, he erupted for 21 points and 8 boards, and looks extremely athletic and energetic. In addition, Greek 7-footer Kosta Koufos welcomed himself to Columbus with 18 points in 18 minutes, doing a good job of filling Greg Oden's very large shoes. He's not the overall athlete or player that Greg Oden was, of course, but he is more polished on the offensive end. He had a few good post moves, and was clearly too much for the undersized Phoenix. There aren't a lot of big, defensive post players in the Big 10 this year, so Koufos could be a powerful offensive force even during conference play.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Looking for Rankings?

I'll have another update, most likely tonight, on the games since yesterday. In other news, if you're looking for computer rankings, they're getting into gear. The RPI has been updating on RealtimeRpi since Friday afternoon. Those update every five minutes. The Sagarin Ratings also began updating, today. Those will update every morning after each night's games are complete. Don't look for the Nitty Gritty report, though. It won't be up for a while.

Of course, this early in the year, the computer rankings are always a bit off. The Sagarin Rankings are still heavily dependent on the preseason rankings (which, if I'm not mistaken, are just a copy of last season's end-of-season rankings). These rankings should become "connected" (a code word for iterative) sometime near the end of the month. The RPI rankings are completely objective, which means that they're all messed up this early in the season. Right now Fordham is #4 in the country. The RPI should begin looking more realistic within a week or two. By early December it will look basically like what you'd expect. Still, it can be a little fun (as well as a bit edifying) to see how these rankings play out early in the year. For example, despite their three big upsets, the Atlantic Sun is ranked 20th in the RPI and 29th on Sagarin. This is because their wins don't mean anything yet. Kentucky isn't an impressive win, as they're only 1-1 and have played an easy schedule. Computer rankings don't care about a team's name. As the season goes on and Kentucky wins more games, Gardner Webb's ranking will rise as will the Atlantic Sun.


I'll talk more about the Atlantic Sun, among other things, with my next update. There are a bunch of games on tv tonight as well, so check your local listings. Enjoy the games!

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Saturday Night Update

I know that most college sports fans were focused on football today, but a few interesting basketball results did show up around the land. The most interesting to me:

Mercer 96, #18 USC 81

I've already talked about how USC seems overhyped to me, and that I doubted that they'd be on the level of UCLA, but nobody expected a performance this poor to begin the season. What's ironic is that I had linked the team's being overrated with OJ Mayo being overrated, but he actually played fairly well. His final stat line of 32 points and 7 boards seems very impressive, although that is dampened a bit when you consider that he took 27 shots. You have to wonder if this is going to be every game for USC: sitting around and watching while Mayo takes half the shots. He managed to shoot well tonight (12 for 27 from the field, 4 for 5 from the line), but this just isn't a winning strategy for the season. Taj Gibson is already a star after his good freshman season, but they need better play all around. You can't win as OJ Mayo and The Sidekick.

Illinois-Chicago 84, Bradley 75

Toledo 57, Missouri State 53
A surprisingly bad day for the Missouri Valley. Kyle Whelliston penned a long piece a few days back about how this could be a very down year for the Valley. His title was intended to be eye-catching in order to draw in readership, but I think most people see that he's overstating the issue. Yes, a lot of the stars from the Valley will be gone, but how big were the stars anyway? Few college basketball fans could name more than one or two players out of the Valley last year anyway. The league's success has never come from its stars, but from the depth of talent and high quality coaching. Southern Illinois will be a very safe pick for the Tournament, and Creighton looked pretty good in its opener. Also, despite the fact that both Bradley and Missouri State were bubble teams last year, I've picked both of them to have down years this season. I still think that the Valley is looking at something at something like three bids. Two should be a minimum. I can't see Whelliston's talk of a single bid coming true.

Minnesota 84, Army 52
Okay, Army isn't exactly Michigan State or Indiana, but it's still a good start for the Tubby Smith era. The key to this game for the Gophers was the performance out of their bench. Dozens of points scored by players that nobody but true Big Ten fanatics had ever heard of. Everybody expects Lawrence McKenzie and Dan Coleman to be good, but teams in the Big Ten have to be worried about all of the production that Tubby got off his bench. Give him a year or two to stock his program with some good recruits and Minnesota could be back to the Tournament within a year or two. Army obviously isn't too much of a test, but the Gophers have a decent game coming up on the road against Iowa State. And they head to Florida to play the Seminoles in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Both will be excellent tests for this squad.

Friday Night Update

First full slate of games. A few highlights:

North Carolina Greensboro 83, Georgia Tech 74
You knew this would be a tough year for Tech after losing Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young, but... wow. The first opening-night home loss for Tech since 1980, when they went 4-23. To be sure, UNC-Greensboro played out of their minds, shooting 51% from the field. But the Jackets should have enough of an athletic advantage to win this game, even on an off-night. The first in-season BP65 doesn't come out until after another eight days of games, but Tech will need a quick recovery if they're going to stay in. I had faith that with just about everyone back other than the two stars that the Jackets would still be a decent, middle-of-the-pack ACC team. Maybe not.

UMass 90, Cal Poly 64
There's no doubt that UMass is a program on the rise with outstanding young coach Travis Ford. With Rashaun Freeman and Stephane Lasme gone, you had to wonder if this program would take two steps forward and one step backwards, but year three of the Ford era is off to a good start. It was a bit of a tough start for the Minutemen, but they got on a roll in the second half, and ended up winning quite comfortably. I wouldn't put this team in any brackets anytime soon, but you have to look for them to compete in an improved Atlantic 10.

George Mason 60, Vermont 53

A good start for Jim Larranaga's boys. Will Thomas is probably the only name that casual fans will remember from Mason's Final Four run, and he made sure tonight that nobody forgets it - 16 points and 17 boards. His presence was especially important in the paint, where Mason used its size to counter Vermont's stellar shooting. I know that a lot of people are already picking the Patriots for an at-large bid. I am not quite there yet, but this is a good start for the resume. A big early matchup will be against fellow conference power (and at-large bid competitor) Drexel, which amazingly happens on November 29th. I know that the Colonial has to get 18 conference games in... but November 29th is ridiculous.

Cleveland State 73, South Florida 70

So Matt Grothe doesn't play basketball? The Bulls have been bringing in a decent amount of talented players, mining the Junior Colleges and taking advantage of the Big East allure, but the results have yet to show. The fact that they can't be excluded from the Big East Tourney next year should help even more with recruiting. Still, right now, this team simply won't be able to compete in the Big East. If they manage to finish 15th in the conference, the school should celebrate.

Creighton 74, Depaul 62
Another important win in the battle the Missouri Valley is fighting to join the BCS conferences atop the college basketball landscape. This Creighton team has a lot of new faces - Nate Funk and Anthony Tolliver are gone. But as of this moment Dana Altman is still the head coach, and he obviously has stocked the pipeline with talent. This is the type of win that helps build the meat of a good resume. It won't bowl anyone over, but it helps. Assuming they don't stumble against Mississippi Valley State next weekend, they will probably move up to "Other teams considered" in the new BP65. As for Depaul... this was a team thinking at-large bid, but they missed a huge opportunity tonight at a nice out-of-conference win.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Good News Out of the Big East

The Big East announced today that they will start including all 16 teams in the Big East Conference Tournament. The current system, which excludes the bottom four teams in the conference, will remain in place this season. Next year they will begin with the new format.

I don't understand why they ever excluded the bottom four teams. Every extra game means more attendance and more tv money. It had to hurt recruiting, since kids might have turned away St. Johns or Cincinnati out of fear of not having a conference tournament. The only rationale was that it was for the kids and coaches who wanted to avoid having to play four straight games if they earned it during the rest of the season, but the ESPN link suggests that the coaches were all against the rule. The news rules will still allow the top four teams to get byes, so the regular season winner won't have to worry about playing four straight games anyway.


At the very least, fixing this rule fixed a bad precedent. Perhaps the greatest aspect of college basketball is how with three weeks before the Tournament, about 330 teams still have a shot to win the National Title. The Ivy League is the only conference that doesn't have a conference Tournament. I can understand the Ivy League wanting to keep its own rules (such as not having athletic scholarships), but I believe that every other conference should include all teams in their tournaments if it's economically feasible. And it's definitely economically feasible for the Big East.



The conference can get even more good news if UConn plays better tonight. They looked awful last night, and get a chance to rebound tonight at 9pm ET against Buffalo. If you've got the channel, the game will be on ESPNU.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Early Look

So far this season, all we have is Coaches vs Cancer. A lot of matchups between elite teams and bad teams, or so we thought. A couple of these games have been a bit closer than expected:

#3 Memphis 80, Richmond 63
I'm not the only one who thinks that the Richmond logo is hideous, am I? If I was a recruit, I would seriously view that spider logo as a reason to choose another school if it was close in other respects. It's the same reason I wouldn't want to compete for NYU and be called a Violet. Oh, yeah, and a game was played. The story of the day was freshman Derrick Rose. 21 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the field. 2.6 points per shot? John Hollinger must be drooling. In all seriousness, Memphis won this game the same way they win most games - superior athletes. John Calipari always recruits guys who can run faster and jump higher than almost anybody that they play. All he has to do is throw them on the court and tell them to play ball, and wins like this are easy. It should be interesting if this team gets far enough to play Kentucky or UConn in the finals of this tournament, to see how they do against high-level talent.

UConn 69, Morgan State 65
The final score is not deceptive, this game really was close. UConn was never really in danger of losing, but they simply could not pull away. The score vacillated between about 4 and 12 points throughout most of the second half. I'd like to say it was because Morgan State played real well and pushed UConn, but they really didn't. Their shooting, specifically, was awful. Meanwhile, UConn fans have to be distraught after seeing what must have felt like a mirror image of last season. A lot of raw talent, no senior leadership, no go-to guy - I feel like I've seen this movie before. If this team gets their act together and plays to their potential, it's going to be because Hasheem Thabeet plays to his potential. You can see why the NBA scouts are so high on him. He's like a more-athletic Roy Hibbert. But he still looks awkward on the floor, and he can't stay out of foul trouble. Tonight he lasted two minutes in the first half before picking up his second foul and having to sit out the rest of the half. If Morgan State can do that to him, don't you think the Big East powers will be able to neutralize him? Of course, anyone can have a bad day, especially on opening day. Let's give UConn a few games to play before we conclude that this is 2006-07 all over again.

Gardner Webb 44, Kentucky 31, about 17 minutes remaining
As opposed to the UConn/Morgan State matchup, this game actually has two teams playing well. Gardner Webb came out absolutely firing on all cylinders, and you have to wonder if they'll wear out. I like how Billy Gillespie made his guy play it out a little bit without bailing them out with a lot of timeouts. These early games are a growing experience, and we'll see soon whether Kentucky can come back and avoid a bad upset to start the Gillespie era.

Monday, November 05, 2007

Opening Night

Opening night is here! I know I'm excited for, um... well, not for any of the games today. Or tomorrow. Or the next day. But the season is here, which is exciting enough. While I wouldn't recommend adjusting your daily schedule around any of the games this week, the weekend brings some intriguing action. The games to look forward to on Friday are highlighted by:


Vermont at George Mason
Expect George Mason to be an outstanding team this year, maybe nearly as good as the team that had the miracle run in '06. If they want to think about an at-large bid, it's imperative to get off on the right foot, and a loss to Vermont would qualify as a "bad" loss on Selection Sunday. Of course, Vermont is thinking Tournament as well, though most likely they'll need the automatic bid to get there. A win here would certainly help get a decent seed and give them the possibility of a first round upset.

Drexel at Pennsylvania
A rivalry game on opening night? Seems a bit early for the Philly teams to start their annual round robin, but it's certainly a good development. Drexel is going into this season thinking about the at-large bid that wasn't last season. If they want to think about an at-large bid this season they can't afford losses to Ivy League teams. Meanwhile, this game will be intriguing for fans of the Ivy League. UPenn was very Senior-heavy last year, and there are a lot of questions about this year's team. With Princeton down, will the dominance of the Killer P's end this season? A win over Drexel would re-affirm Penn as the favorites to win another Ivy crown. A bad loss will give hope all over the league.

Butler at Ball State
Another case of a mid-major team needing to get an early start on their Tournament resume. When you're in a smaller conference, it's just impossible to build a case for an at-large bid while playing in conference. So, these early out-of-season games carry far more weight than they do for the bigger schools. A win over Ball State won't blow anyone away, but it will be a good start. The Cardinals aren't pushovers.

Saturday, November 03, 2007

Post-Midnight Madness BP65

Ready or not, here it comes. The first games start up in two days, so let's celebrate with a new BP65. They will start becoming weekly on Sunday, November 18th, which will be (if you're curious) the W-17 BP65. That's right, we have 19 weeks until Selection Sunday.

For most people, these early games aren't all too important. They're more focused on college football. And that's fine. But once college football winds down in late-November (the bowl season is almost an afterthought, with so much time off before the games and then almost all of them occurring on one day), people will turn around and see a college basketball season all the way in swing. Anyway, less talk, more BP65, so here it is:


1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10
3. Arizona

3. Georgetown
3. Duke
3. Ohio State
3. Texas

4. Indiana
4. Alabama
4. Marquette
4. UConn

5. Oklahoma State
5. Washington State
5. Mississippi State
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

6. Pittsburgh
6. Missouri
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Washington

7. Kentucky
7. Clemson
7. Wisconsin
7. USC

8. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
8. Wichita State
8. Syracuse
8. BYU (MOUNTAIN WEST)

9. Florida
9. North Carolina State
9. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Arkansas

10. Michigan
10. Texas Tech
10. Illinois
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

11. Virginia Tech
11. VCU (COLONIAL)
11. Georgia Tech
11. Stanford

12. Texas A&M
12. Northern Iowa
12. LSU
12. Villanova

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. YALE (IVY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
15. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)

16. SOUTHERN UTAH (MID-CON)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Virginia, Rhode Island, Xavier, Depaul, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Drexel, George Mason, Houston, Indiana State, New Mexico, San Diego State, California, Oregon, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Utah State

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, High Point, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Central Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Bradley, Creighton, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Utah, Arizona State, Bucknell, Appalachian State, Georgia, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Alabama, San Diego, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Hawaii