Monday, December 31, 2012

Cincinnati Grinds Out A Big Upset Of Pittsburgh

#8 Cincinnati 70, #24 Pittsburgh 61
I've talked several times before about my belief that Cincinnati will end up with more than their share of upset wins and upset losses this season. They have an explosive-but-inconsistent offense, paired with an elite defense. When Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright are putting up points in bunches, they can beat anybody. But their sloppy play at times (offensive turnovers, defensive rebounding and free throw shooting are all problems) is why Pittsburgh came into this game rated the better team by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, and why they were a six point favorite in Vegas.

But those sloppy problems? They weren't a problem here. Cincy hit as many free throws (25) as Pittsburgh attempted, making them at a 71.4% clip (well above their 61.6% season average). They only committed 8 turnovers (well below their season average of 13.6 per game), and held Pittsburgh to a 37.9 OR% (Pitt's lowest in six games, and well under their season average of 45.0%). And that, along with 16 and 18, respectively, from Kilpatrick and Wright, is why Cincy landed a really important victory.

Besides the win itself, this game also represents Cincy's last serious challenge for a few weeks. They'll be solid favorites in each of their next five games, meaning a realistic chance of moving up to around 5th or 6th in the human polls before a massive road game at Syracuse on January 21st. First things first, of course. Their next game will be against St. John's on Saturday.

Pittsburgh will be punished by the Selection Committee for their soft non-conference schedule. Their one premier non-conference opponent was Michigan, and they lost that game by five points. So they still have no big wins, despite a 12-2 record and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should stay in the Top 25 even after this loss. They head on the road next to play Rutgers and Georgetown, on Saturday and then the following Tuesday.

Harvard 67, California 62
The loss of Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry really sabotaged the early part of this season for Harvard. They have no real chance for an at-large bid, and the Ivy League title race has been flung wide open. Princeton, and even Columbia, have a realistic chance to earn the Ivy League's auto bid. But Tommy Amaker's very young team has grown significantly as the season has gone along, and their level of play has clearly improved since November.

Laurent Rivard is the one returning starter from last season, and he's been superb. He led Harvard with 19 points here. But as has been the case in all of Harvard's best performances this season, they've been lifted by young guys who were either minor bench players or high schoolers last season. Here, Wesley Saunders poured in 18 points (on 6-for-13 shooting) and Siyani Chambers had a Phil Pressey-like 9 assists with 2-for-15 shooting from the field. Chambers looks like he's 10 years old, but his potential for growth over the next three seasons is massive.

This is a devastating loss for a California team that already resides on the Tournament bubble. They now enter Pac-12 play at 8-4 with this loss and zero quality wins. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE has tumbled all the way to 68th, and they'd be NIT-bound if the season ended now. To work their way back into the Field of 68, they'll need to get to at least 11-7 in Pac-12 play. They get a bad break not playing Arizona at home, which will make it even more difficult for them to collect a quality scalp. They will open conference play on Thursday, at UCLA.

Harvard will continue their west coast swing tonight at St. Mary's, where they'll get another chance to deal a big blow to a bubble team. They will also play at Rice before opening Ivy League play at Dartmouth on January 12th.

Indiana State 77, Illinois State 75
This was the Missouri Valley regular season opener for both squads. Illinois State really needed this win, and almost pulled off an exciting, late comeback. Trailing by 11 with 3:30 to go, they actually pulled within 1 with 18 seconds left. After Indiana State hit one of two at the free throw line, Nick Zeisloft got a last second three-point attempt to win the game but couldn't hit it.

Pomeroy ratings Illinois State 47th, and they're actually 32nd in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, so they're obviously good enough to earn an at-large bid. But they have lost to Louisville, Northwestern and Indiana State by a combined 8 points, and are now 9-4 with no real big wins and this bad loss to Indiana State. They need to get to 12-6 in Missouri Valley play to have any chance at an at-large bid, and realistically need to reach 13-5. So an 0-1 start is a significant problem. Their next game will be Wednesday at home against Creighton, which is crucial for not only avoiding an 0-2 start, but it will also represent their best remaining chance for a premier win.

I've talked recently about the dramatically improved play from Indiana State. They don't have a realistic path to an at-large bid, but they might be the fourth best team in the Missouri Valley. And after taking out the third best team at home, they now have a realistic path to finishing as high as third in the final Valley standings. Their next game will be at Creighton, on Saturday. After that, their schedule will ease up for the next two weeks.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

W-11 BP68

I talked earlier this evening about how underrated Kentucky basketball is. The legacy media's argument against teams like Kentucky is two-pronged, and these two prongs contradict each other.

The first is the "You have to watch the games!"/"Stop blogging in pajamas in your mother's basement"/"Get off my lawn!" argument, which boils down to not believing computer numbers that contradict conventional wisdom. Computers don't know how to play basketball after all... or something.

The second is that Kentucky is not good because they keep losing games. They lost very narrowly to Duke, Louisville and Baylor. And, yeah, they looked good-to-great in all of those games and could have easily won all three, but it doesn't matter because they lost and therefore they must drop in the polls. This is contradicting the first argument - they're saying that we shouldn't watch the games or judge the teams at all. They're saying that all we should do is buy a newspaper the following morning, see which teams won and which teams lost, and record that as the only relevant information.

Of course, neither of those arguments is correct. You have to judge a team by as large of a sample size as you can. Kentucky's Tournament resume sucks right now, but it will get better after they play some more games. Their luck should more or less even out over the season. What's fascinating is that the computers all had Kentucky as something like a ten point underdog today at Louisville, despite rating Kentucky much higher than the average Top 25 voter. The reason? Louisville is really, really good. And also, Louisville is at home (homecourt = 4 points). So Kentucky covered the spread easily. In any rational Top 25 poll, Kentucky would climb on Monday. But we don't have rational Top 25 polls. Expect Kentucky to drop.

Anyway, enough defending Kentucky. Let's get to the entire bracket. I only have one change to the Field of 68 - Colorado State is in and Alabama is out. That puts five Mountain West teams in the Tournament, which makes me a bit queasy. The nature of conference play (every game must have a winner and a loser) makes it unlikely that the Mountain West can get more than four teams in the Tournament. But at this point, I can't ignore how good Colorado State has played. They're in until they lose some games and give me a good reason to drop them.

As always, there wasn't too much shifting of seeds up or down the bracket. We will start hitting conference play in the major conferences before my next bracket projection (a week from today), so things might start to accelerate.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Michigan
2. Ohio State
2. Syracuse

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Kentucky
3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

4. Michigan State
4. Minnesota
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Cincinnati
5. NC State
5. Pittsburgh
5. Butler

6. Notre Dame
6. Missouri
6. UNLV
6. Oklahoma State

7. North Carolina
7. Illinois
7. Wisconsin
7. Georgetown

8. Miami (Fl)
8. Wichita State
8. New Mexico
8. Kansas State

9. Baylor
9. Iowa State
9. Temple
9. Ole Miss

10. Iowa
10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
10. Marquette
10. Maryland

11. Colorado
11. St. Louis
11. UCLA
11. Wyoming

12. St. Mary's
12. California
12. Virginia
12. Colorado State
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

13. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas, Illinois State, Boise State, Oregon, Stanford, Alabama, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, UMass, Xavier, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Akron, Belmont, Oregon State, Arkansas, LSU, North Dakota State

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Clemson, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, Purdue, SMU, Illinois-Chicago, Bradley, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Arizona State, Washington, Washington State, Lehigh, Texas A&M, Santa Clara, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Kevin Ollie Extended, Leads UConn Over Washington

UConn 61, Washington 53
Kevin Ollie had been coaching UConn on a small one year contract, and earlier today he was finally extended out five years. The money isn't huge, and so I would presume that UConn could easily afford to buy him out after a year or two of it, but the extension at least gives the program some stability in the post-Jim Calhoun era. It should certainly help Ollie with recruiting.

This happened to be a pretty sloppy game. Neither team could shoot well (UConn was 2-for-14 behind the arc while Washington had a 32.8 eFG%), and in all the teams combined for 0.81 PPP. The difference in the game was probably the foul trouble for Washington's front line, which allowed DeAndre Daniels and Enosch Wolff to really dominate the paint for UConn. UConn can't play in the postseason this year, of course. But the strong play from young players like Wolff and Omar Calhoun who are very likely to be back next season has to be encouraging for Kevin Ollie. They will open Big East play at Marquette on Tuesday.

Washington is now 8-5. They knocked off St. Louis, but also have bad losses to Albany and Nevada. Their resume isn't terrible, but neither Sagarin or Pomeroy rates them as one of the 100 best teams in the country, so don't expect them to do much in Pac-12 play. They will open conference play next Saturday, at Washington State.

Tennessee 51, Xavier 47
Tennessee's offense continues to leave a lot to desire. They have played five teams in the Pomeroy Top 100, and this is the fourth time in those five games that they have failed to break 0.85 PPP. That's pretty brutal. They had a 41.8 eFG% here, with only 8 assists to 13 turnovers with 19 made baskets. Things will get better when Jeronne Maymon gets healthy and plays again, but he's not a miracle worker. Pomeroy rated Tennessee's offense 103rd in the nation even before this performance. That said, at least their defense is pretty good. They shut down Xavier by shutting down their primary playmaker, Semaj Christon (1-for-9 shooting, 1 assist, 6 turnovers).

Tennessee is 8-3, but their win over Wichita State is their only "quality" win of the season. They will get a chance for a second decent win on Friday when they take on Memphis. A win there and a 10-8 record in SEC play would be enough to put them on the Tournament bubble. A high priority for them will be collecting a big scalp or two. Home games against Florida, Kentucky and Missouri will be crucial.

Xavier continues to take on water. They're a fairly young team, and everybody expected them to take a step back this season, but they've taken a larger step back than most predicted (including me). They're now 7-5 with losses to Pacific, Wofford and Vanderbilt more than wiping out that early season win over Butler. They will play at Wake Forest on Wednesday, and then will open A-10 regular season play against Temple on January 10th.

North Dakota State 65, South Dakota State 62
There's no question that over the entirety of this season, North Dakota State has played better than South Dakota State. Heading into today, Pomeroy had North Dakota State 54th and South Dakota State 134th. The Sagarin PREDICTOR had them 45th and 199th, respectively. It's not that close. But all season long, South Dakota State has been my pick to win the Summit League. Why? Nate Wolters, who missed a couple of games and also wasn't himself for a few other games. And on any given night, in any given game (such as, say, the Summit League tournament title game), he can win a game almost by himself.

Wolters played all 40 minutes here, scoring 26 points on 1-for-21 shooting. Two of those misses, however, came on shots in the final minute that either would have tied the game or given the Jackrabbits the lead. Sometimes the shots fall... sometimes they don't. And that's what makes the result of this game difficult to process. When I put the finishing touches on my newest bracket projection tonight, I need to project the result of a hypothetical Summit League title game between these two teams in March. Should the result of two shots in a game in late December make the difference? I really don't think they can. The Bisons held serve in Fargo barely. They still have to go to Brookings. And in my view, I still don't think I can pick against Wolters in that title game. I could change my mind before March (particularly if the Bisons win the rematch in Brookings), but for now South Dakota State is still my pick to win the Summit League's auto bid.

North Dakota State will play their next game on Thursday, at South Dakota. South Dakota State will play their next game on Thursday also, at UMKC. These two teams will have their rematch in Brookings on January 26th.

Louisville Wins A Thriller Over Kentucky

#4 Louisville 80, Kentucky 77
As I said on twitter, I just don't know what to do in a world where Kentucky basketball is underrated. More on that in a moment. Here, Louisville opened a 17 point lead early in the second half, but Kentucky chipped away with explosive play on both ends of the floor. And yes, some Louisville foul trouble helped (Russ Smith, Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng all had 4 fouls for a significant fraction of the second half, and Siva ended up fouling out late), but Kentucky also got great play from Archie Goodwin (22 points on 8-for-15 shooting) and Willie Cauley-Stein (6 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks).

Heading into this game, Kentucky was 59th in the Sagarin ELO_SCORE and 19th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Pomeroy had them 13th. In other words, they are one of the 20 best teams in the country, but with a bad resume because they happened to come up just short against Duke and Baylor (both single digit losses). And that gap will increase now, with a very close loss on the road at a Louisville team that is one of the four best in the nation. Watching them you can see how explosive they are. You can argue that they're overrated by the computers and should be ranked around 20th, instead of being ranked higher. But you can't argue that they're a bubble team - although many people are.

I don't want to repeat things I've said many times before about advanced stats, but I have a new idea for you to chew on. The classic response from the old guard to advanced stats guys is "Do you even watch the games!?" I get that one fairly repeatedly. But the irony is, the argument against Kentucky is that watching them play well is irrelevant because they lost all of these games. They lost to Duke, they lost to Louisville, they lost to Baylor. Doesn't matter that all three games were very close and all were against elite opponents. A loss is a loss. In other words, the arguments from the media dinosaurs is that we shouldn't watch the games - we should just pick up a newspaper the next day and see who beat whom.

Anyway, I believed coming into this game that Kentucky was the second best team in the SEC, and that obviously won't change from this result. They will play Eastern Michigan on Wednesday before opening up conference play. Louisville heads straight into Big East play, beginning with Providence on Wednesday. I think Louisville is the best team in the Big East, but it is very far from a given that they'll win the league. Syracuse matches up very well with them in terms of personnel and style, and it would be a mistake to sleep on Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.

North Carolina 79, #20 UNLV 73
UNLV's offense was atrocious in the first half. They turned the ball over like there was no tomorrow, and couldn't hit a shot. They pulled things together in the second half, and actually took a brief lead, but they went ice cold again in the final seven minutes. Between the 7:33 and 2:16 marks in the second half they shot 0-for-5 from the field and 2-for-6 from the line. UNC pushed a one point lead out to a seven point lead over that stretch.

While UNC struggled to close this game out at home, the fact that they won at all without their best player (Reggie Bullock missed the game with symptoms from a concussion) is a really nice result. It's their best performance of the season, and it delivers their first quality victory of the season. They now head into ACC play with some momentum. I don't think anybody is going to seriously challenge Duke, but UNC is definitely in the mix for second place. They will open with a tough game on January 6th, at Virginia.

Considering the absence of Bullock, this is a really bad missed opportunity for UNLV. And I think this result exposed their offensive problems as well. They have a really high level of talent and athleticism, but they have no idea what they're doing on offense. Everything degenerates into one-on-one basketball. Sound defenses that know how to rotate and communicate will shut that down. I don't think it's a coincidence that they also struggled badly to score against the only other Pomeroy Top 50 defense that they've played (Oregon). Their own defense is very good, and their offense is good enough to get them to the NCAA Tournament. But I think it's a real concern for them in the Mountain West. UNLV will take on a pair of cupcakes before opening conference play at New Mexico on January 9th.

Towson 67, Oregon State 66, OT
Oregon State is starting to convince me that they're the rich man's USC. They have seriously upgraded their raw athleticism under Craig Robinson, and when you watch them in short samples or when they warm up they certainly look like a good team. But they're not. Their offense is sloppy, their defense is terrible, and they're now 9-3 with a terrible loss to go with precisely zero quality wins. They're not as bad as their RPI (208th), but at this point they're off the Tournament bubble until they can prove otherwise.

Towson is 5-8 this season, which makes them one of the most improved teams in the nation. Remember, they went 1-31 last season. The biggest addition is Jerrelle Benimon, who transferred in after two seasons at Georgetown. Benimon was the star here, scoring 20 points and pulling down 21 boards, and also hitting the game winner in overtime. Towson will head on the road on Wednesday to play UNC-Wilmington to open Colonial regular season play. UNC-Wilmington also happens to be the only team in the Colonial that Towson has beaten over the past two seasons.

Oregon State is now 9-3 with this bad loss and zero quality wins. Assuming that they beat Texas-Pan American on Monday, they will probably need to get to 11-7 in Pac-12 play to get firmly in the at-large discussion heading into the Pac-12 tournament. I don't see that as a likely result.

UCLA "Upsets" Missouri

UCLA 97, #7 Missouri 94, OT
Missouri is a good team, but they're borderline Top 25 - not 7th. Throw in an underrated UCLA team playing at home and Pomeroy had UCLA as a three point favorite. And as usual, the Vegas lines matched Pomeroy. But because mainstream sports writers don't understand advanced stats, this was a "major upset". The linked AP article calls it an "upset", and Seth Davis made it his "upset special of the day" before the game. When I called him out on it on twitter, and also for his promoting of his mother's "magic water" company (my name for it), he responded by citing this guy. I guess it's not a surprise that a writer who denies modern advances in statistics would also deny modern, western medicine. All in all, a bizarre day.

Anyway, getting to the action here, it was the type of game that is really fun in short spurts. The up-and-down action and ceaseless scoring (particularly in the first ten minutes of the second half) was wild. After a while, though, it starts getting a bit grating seeing such putrid defense. UCLA had no idea how to defend a pick-and-roll and their help defense was horrific. The star of the game, of course, was Phil Pressey. His 19 points and 19 assists were one of the best performances I've seen from any player in the nation this season. But I can say that while also acknowledging that Pressey's terrible shooting performance against Illinois almost cost his team that game. He's a streaky player - it's who he is. When he's playing well he's as good as any player in the nation. But his bad games are pretty bad. And that's why he's, overall, an overrated player. The talk of him as an All-American is absurd. He's a borderline all-SEC player.

UCLA very much needed this win. They beat Texas, but that may not be a great win on Selection Sunday. With a loss to Cal Poly, their Sagarin ELO_SCORE after this win is still 66th. So they head into Pac-12 play as a bubble team. If they go 10-8 in Pac-12 play then they'll probably need at least a win or two in the Pac-12 tournament to go Dancing. They probably need to get to 12-6 to really be confident of getting into the Tournament. They will open conference play on Thursday, against California.

I've felt for a while now that Missouri is the third best team in the Pac-12, and a narrow road loss at UCLA certainly doesn't change that. They need to avoid getting tripped up against a tough Bucknell team next Saturday. A loss would significantly harm their chances of earning a 3 or 4 seed. They will open SEC play against Alabama on January 8th.

#13 Gonzaga 94, Baylor 87
There's no such concept in college basketball as a National Most Improved Player award, and for obvious reasons. It would be impossible to weigh an average player on a top team becoming a superstar vs a bench guy on a low-major becoming a star in his low-major conference. But that said, if such an award existed, Kelly Olynyk would have to be one of the top contenders, no? He was a mostly anonymous bench player last season, but he's arguably Gonzaga's best player this season. And not only has he arguably been their best player overall, but he's been at his own personal best in Gonzaga's most important games. He had 21 points on 9-for-12 shooting here, along with some key defensive plays that didn't show up in the boxscore. He also had 20+ in the Kansas State rout and while nearly single-handedly winning that road game at Washington State (a combined 20-for-27 shooting from the floor in those two games).

Of course, Kevin Pangos also had 31 points here, on 7-for-10 three-point shooting. Like Brady Heslip (who was only 1-for-5 behind the arc), he will have games like this from time to time. But that hot shooting overshadowed Olynyk's key plays. Gonzaga couldn't have won this game without either of them.

Gonzaga's defense wasn't great here, particularly in the second half, but I don't think it's cause to panic. Baylor is an explosive offensive team, and they also happened to get hot behind the arc (10-for-24) and at the free throw line (85%). This game was also played at a hot pace (76 possessions), which was a big reason why so many points were scored. So as I argued on twitter last night, there really is no cause for panicking about Gonzaga's defense.

The Zags head on the road next to play Oklahoma State on New Year's Eve. That will be an awfully tough game, but it's the type of game Gonzaga really needs to win if they're going to be able to argue for a 2 seed on Selection Sunday. With a loss there, their ceiling will probably be a 3 seed. Now 8-4, Baylor will open Big 12 play next Saturday against Texas. They're going to have to finish at least 10-8 in conference play to be in a good position for an at-large bid.

BYU 97, Virginia Tech 71
Tyler Haws was a player that I loved when he was a freshman. I called him possibly the next coming Jimmer Fredette. He then went off on a Mormon mission for two years. He's been good since coming back, but not great. It still felt like he was trying to get his sea legs back. Haws might finally be back. He exploded for 42 points on 14-for-25 shooting, including 6-for-8 behind the arc. The Hokies never had a chance.

The problem for BYU is that they got off to an awfully slow start to this season and missed other opportunities for good wins. They are 10-4 and this is the closest thing that they have to a quality win, along with an iffy loss to Florida State. They will probably need a win over Gonzaga and a 10-6 or better WCC record to have a good chance of an at-large bid. They will open conference play against Loyola-Marymount on Thursday.

Virginia Tech is now 9-4 with wins over Iowa and Oklahoma State, along with a terrible loss to Georgia Southern and an iffy loss to West Virginia. They will need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to be on the bubble, and I'll be pretty surprised if they get there. They're just not playing that well yet - James Johnson needs to fill in his roster more. They will open ACC play next Saturday, at Maryland.

Arizona Wins Another Squeaker

#3 Arizona 68, #17 San Diego State 67
It's been a slow few days for college basketball, as it always is around Christmas. It's time to catch up on blogging, and it's also time to catch up on the best game from the days around Christmas. This game was on the 25th, of course - the title game of the Diamond Head Classic. It promised to be a good game, and it delivered. The lead went back and forth between the two teams in the final minutes. With his team down by one, Mark Lyons attacked the basket and got to the line with 13 seconds left. After hitting both, San Diego State had a great chance to score on a Xavier Thomas drive, but it was thwarted by a tremendous Nick Johnson block.

With this win, along with that huge one-point upset win of Florida, the Arizona hype is really starting to build. They might get some #1 votes in the AP Poll on Monday, and they are certainly getting Final Four buzz. Now that said, of course Arizona has a real chance to make the Final Four. So do 50 other teams at this point in the season. And the #1 votes are a bit silly when you realize that two shots going the other way would make Arizona 10-2 and only a borderline Top 25 team (human polls, in that way, are always dumb and meaningless). Pomeroy has Arizona 12th and they're 10th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, which sounds about right to me. The other Pac-12 contenders continue to struggle in non-conference play, and Arizona should win the conference relatively easily. The one potential hurdle is UCLA, which is a team that could fall flat on its face and end up in the NIT, but which has the raw talent and potential to perhaps challenge the Wildcats for the conference title. But assuming that Arizona wins the Pac-12, they should earn a Tournament seed in the 2-4 range. And that will come down to how much they dominate the Pac-12 regular season, and how well they finish the season regular season. They will open conference play on Thursday, against Colorado.

This is a tough missed opportunity for San Diego State, particularly since their only other chance for a big non-conference scalp was wasted in that aircraft carrier game against Syracuse when the glare and the wind seemed to really mess up their shooting, particularly in the first half. They do have a win over UCLA, and they'll get chances for quality wins in the Mountain West. Assuming that they beat Cal State Bakersfield on Wednesday, a 9-7 conference record should be sufficient for an at-large bid. They should easily surpass that.

Indiana State 57, Miami (Fl) 55, OT
As my regular readers know, I always warn against drawing too many conclusions from early season tournament games. You never know how kids will respond mentally to playing for a week in Hawaii, and on Christmas afternoon no less. Throw in an atrocious 0-for-15 three-point shooting performance from Miami and the fact that they still had plenty of chances to win before falling by only two points in overtime, and it would really be a big mistake to come to any large conclusions about Miami from this game. They're still playing like a Tournament team, and I still expect them to go Dancing.

The problem for Miami is that while this loss doesn't mean anything about their team quality, it means something serious for their Tournament resume. The Selection Committee probably will not give them a pass for that loss to Florida Gulf Coast before Durant Scott started playing in games, which means that they now have two losses to likely RPI 100+ opponents. They did beat Michigan State, but their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is a precarious 35th (any team worse than 40th on Selection Sunday is probably on the bubble, at best). This all makes their Wednesday game against La Salle crucial heading into ACC regular season play. A win would give them a win over a likely RPI 100 team, and at 9-3 overall they'd probably only need to go 10-8 in ACC play to have a good chance at an at-large bid. If they fall to La Salle then they'll need to go 11-7 or better to avoid entering the ACC tournament squarely on the bubble.

Indiana State is becoming a little bit of a giant killer in college basketball. They took down Ole Miss a week ago, and also beat Vanderbilt last season. They also have a bad loss to Morehead State this season, so Indiana State fans shouldn't start concerning themselves with an at-large bid anytime soon, but you can make a good argument that they're now the fourth best team in the Missouri Valley (behind Wichita State, Creighton and Illinois State). They open conference play today against Illinois State - a crucial win for them if they're going to crack the top four in the Valley final standings.

New Mexico 55, #8 Cincinnati 54
This was an interesting game not just because it was close, but because both teams took away what their opponents most wanted to achieve offensively. New Mexico has won all season by attacking the basket and getting to the line, but Cincy held them to only 11 attempts here. Meanwhile, the Bearcats have been annihilating opponents on the offensive glass, but New Mexico held them to a 40.0 OR% (that sounds like a lot of offensive rebounds, but Cincy had done better than that in each of their previous seven games).

Alex Kirk was superb for New Mexico, scoring 15 points on 6-for-8 shooting, and adding 7 rebounds and 3 blocks, including the crucial game sealer on Sean Kilpatrick's final desperation attempt. Speaking of Kilpatrick, he was a terrible 5-for-22 from the field here, which was probably the biggest reason why Cincy lost. New Mexico's offense is not particularly explosive, and against a suffocating Cincy defense there was no way that they were going to put up a lot of points. Had Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright gotten going offensively, there's no way that the Lobos could have kept up. But they didn't, and it meant a loss.

The nature of a team like Cincinnati, which tends to be sloppy on offense and which depends on second opportunities and on a gunner like Sean Kilpatrick, is that they're going to be inconsistent. There's a good chance that they're going to knock off Syracuse and/or Louisville at some point this season, but they're also going to lose a few games to clearly inferior foes. And that's why I only had the Bearcats as a 5 seed in my most recent BP68, despite the fact that they might be the third best team in the Big East.

The Bearcats have a great test upcoming on the road at a very underrated Pitt team, on Monday. Despite Cincy being the much higher rated team in the human polls, expect Pitt to be a very large favorite in Vegas (Pomeroy has them as a 9 point favorite, and Sagarin has it at 7). As for New Mexico, they are now 13-1 with this win and a win over UConn to go with a bad loss to South Dakota State. They will play at St. Louis on Monday. Even if they fail to pull the upset there, they should be NCAA Tournament bound if they get to 9-7 in Mountain West play. They will open conference play on January 9th, against UNLV.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Colorado State Destroys Virginia Tech, So Why Aren't They An At-Large Team?

Colorado State 88, Virginia Tech 52
Virginia Tech is a poor rebounding team, and they were going up against arguably the best rebounding team in the nation. It was no surprise that Colorado State ended up with 17 offensive rebounds (a 48.6 OR%). Throw in a very efficient offensive performance (22 assists to only 6 turnovers) and Colorado State ended up earning 10 more shots from the field and 11 more at the free throw line. That alone would have been enough for victory. Throw in 11-for-24 three-point shooting and you get, well, a 36 point romp.

These types of performances are what make Colorado State so intriguing as a potential at-large team. They're now ranked 30th in the Pomeroy ratings and 22nd in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. That's better than close to 20 teams I'm projecting as at-large teams. Why am I not projecting Colorado State as a Tournament team? Because Tournament bids aren't handed out to the best teams - they're handed out to the best resumes. And unfortunately for the Rams, they put together a really soft non-conference schedule. Their one quality opponent was Colorado, who the Rams lost to in a close, exciting road game. Throw in a clunker against Illinois-Chicago and their resume isn't even close to a Tournament resume right now.

To make the Tournament, Colorado State needs at least a win or two over UNLV or San Diego State (or perhaps Wyoming or New Mexico if either of those teams works their way into the Top 25 toward the end of the season). Without a big win or two they'll be in the at-large pile with the Belmonts and Middle Tennessees of the world, with great won-loss records but no big scalps. And that usually translates into an NIT bid. Their first chance for a big win will be on the road at San Diego State on January 12th.

Virginia Tech opened the season 7-0, with wins over Iowa and Oklahoma State. The computers were never impressed, and Virginia Tech's recent results seem to have proven the computers right. They've lost three of five, including a terrible loss to Georgia Southern. They have a pseudo-road game at BYU on Saturday, which could be crucial for their at-large hopes. With a loss there they'll need to get to 10-8 in ACC play to have a good chance at an at-large bid, and I don't think they're good enough to get there.

Northern Iowa 82, St. Mary's 75
St. Mary's has been vexed all season with an inability to keep opponents off the free throw line. It cost them in that terrible loss to Pacific, and it cost them again here. Northern Iowa marched to the free throw line for 37 attempts. Three different UNI players (Jake Koch, Seth Tuttle and Deon Mitchell) took double digit free throw attempts. Mitchell also played a key role in shutting down Gaels star Matthew Dellavedova (9 points on 3-for-11 shooting). This season, Dellavedova is averaging 10,0 points per game in Gaels losses, and 21.8 points per game in Gaels victories. This Gaels team isn't good defensively, and really needs Dellavedova's scoring to deliver quality wins.

St. Mary's has a surprisingly poor resume so far. They have iffy losses to Georgia Tech, Pacific and Northern Iowa, and are still looking for their first quality victory of the season. They will play Harvard on New Year's Eve, but their first real chance for a quality win will be their road game at Gonzaga on January 10th. Considering BYU's struggles, Gonzaga is the only premier WCC opponent this year for the Gaels. They have to win at least one of those Gonzaga games. Their next game will be Thursday against Rhode Island.

Northern Iowa is 7-5, but without a single bad loss. They have had a couple of close calls against quality teams (particularly Louisville and Memphis at the Battle 4 Atlantis), but couldn't come through. It's hard to see them earning an at-large bid unless they can get to 13-5 in Missouri Valley play, and even at 13-5 they'd enter Arch Madness with work left to do. They will open Valley play on Sunday, at Wichita State.

#4 Arizona 69, Miami (Fl) 50
All things considered, this was the best Arizona has played all season. Florida is a better scalp than Miami, of course, But Florida outplayed Arizona on their home floor, and just coughed it up with a mental collapse in the final two minutes. Here, against a very good and underrated Miami team on a neutral floor, Arizona just took the Canes to the woodshed. They led by as many as 14 in the first half, and by 26 in the second half, before taking their foot off the pedal in the final minutes.

Arizona has a great game coming up tomorrow against San Diego State. Arizona is probably overdue for a letdown game, but a win over San Diego State would really strengthen the argument that they're deserving of their Top Ten ranking. San Diego State's offense has struggled at times this season, so if Arizona can get hot and hit shots at a good clip over the top of the SDSU defense, they should be in good shape. After that they'll head home from Hawaii for rest and recovery before opening up Pac-12 play against Colorado, on January 3rd.

Miami is 8-2 now, with a nice win over Michigan State and a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast (it's possible that the Selection Committee will give them a break for not having Durand Scott for that latter game, but it's unlikely - there isn't much precedent for that). They will play Indiana State tomorrow in the Diamond Head Classic third place game, and then against La Salle at January 2nd before opening ACC play at Georgia Tech, on January 5th.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

W-12 BP68

12 weeks to Selection Sunday. Fewer than three months. Doesn't seem that far away, does it?

Anyway, I'll save you guys the rant this week. I do think I need to explain the concept of a bracket projection at least once a year, but I got it out of my system last week. So this week? Let's just talk basketball results.

As I've said many times, my bracket is not going to overreact to small sample sizes. I'm not going to overreact to Florida's two losses, or Missouri's win. I still believe that we have eight teams a step ahead of everybody else, and those are the eight teams that I have kept as 1 or 2 seeds for quite a while now.

I did make some changes toward the tail end of the bracket. Three teams moved into the bracket this week, though only one as an at-large - Wyoming. I finally moved George Mason in as an automatic bid out of the Colonial, and also added Weber State as the new favorite in the Big Sky. To make room for those teams, Stanford, Drexel and Montana were dropped from the bracket.

Be aware that I will expand my bracket to contain the "full bubble" in four weeks. At that point I will include every team with even the tiniest chance at an at-large bid, and with each new bracket thereafter I will eliminate teams that are no longer in contention. So once I get to that point, I will be adding a bunch of teams to the bubble that aren't there now. Teams like Utah, Penn State and Texas Tech are pretty implausible at-large teams, but they could run off 12 wins in a row and get themselves on the bubble. So those are the types of teams that will get added. Again, it's four weeks away. I'm just getting you ready for it.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Michigan
2. Ohio State
2. Syracuse

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Kentucky
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)

4. Michigan State
4. Notre Dame
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Minnesota

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. NC State
5. Cincinnati
5. Georgetown

6. UNLV
6. Butler
6. Missouri
6. Illinois

7. Pittsburgh
7. Baylor
7. Oklahoma State
7. Wisconsin

8. North Carolina
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Wichita State
8. Kansas State

9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Marquette
9. Iowa State
9. Maryland

10. California
10. Ole Miss
10. Temple
10. New Mexico

11. St. Louis
11. Iowa
11. Alabama
11. Virginia

12. Colorado
12. St. Mary's
12. UCLA
12. Wyoming
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

13. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Saint Joseph's, Xavier, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas, Illinois State, Boise State, Colorado State, Oregon, Stanford, Tennessee

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, La Salle, UMass, Seton Hall, Purdue, West Virginia, Akron, Belmont, Arkansas, Oregon State, LSU, North Dakota State, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Richmond, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, SMU, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Arizona State, Washington, Washington State, Lehigh, Texas A&M, Santa Clara, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State

Florida Suffers A Second Straight Tough Loss

Kansas State 67, #8 Florida 61
This game had to feel a little bit like deja vu from the Arizona game. Florida went cold from the field (5-for-19 behind the arc here) and found themselves in a battle with a fired up home opponent (and yes, this wasn't technically a "home" game for Kansas State, but it was a de facto home game in Kansas City). Patric Young played really well (19 points on 8-for-11 shooting, with 10 rebounds), but he didn't get a ton of help.

It's worth noting that Kansas State is not a mediocre team. Their two losses have come to Michigan and Gonzaga, two of the 15 best teams in the nation, and weren't at home. Also, they're transitioning from a coach who didn't focus on the fundamentals at all to a coach who is. Bruce Weber has talent he can work with, and they're already getting better at things like defensive rebounding and avoiding turnovers - two serious problems under Frank Martin. They are a team that is improving, and that I think will end up in the NCAA Tournament.

So while there's going to be some panic about Florida over these two losses, it's silly. Florida is the best team in the SEC, and it's not particularly close. They beat Wisconsin, Marquette, Middle Tennessee and Florida State very easily (all were by 18+ points). And while Kansas State probably deserved this one, Florida pretty clearly outplayed Arizona on their own floor last week. They just had a really bad collapse in the final two minutes. So when my new bracket comes out after the games wrap up late tonight, Florida will still be my pick to win the SEC and to earn a 1 seed.

Now with a big win, Kansas State has to get past two cupcakes before opening Big 12 play against Oklahoma on January 5th. A 10-8 Big 12 record should be sufficient for an at-large bid, and that's something that I expect them to achieve. Florida will play Air Force and Yale before opening up SEC play against Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M. They won't get a real test until they play Missouri on January 19th.

 #12 Missouri 82, #10 Illinois 73
The crowd was great for this one. The border battles between these two in Kansas City are always a lot of fun. That said, I do need to throw a little bit of water on this one, because this game wasn't as big of a match-up as it seemed on paper. Both of these teams are overrated - they'll both be borderline Top 25 teams once they've played more games. Missouri will probably move ahead of Florida in the polls on Monday, but they're still a pretty heavy underdog in the SEC title race.

Laurence Bowers and Alex Oriahki were the two sparks for Missouri here. Bowers is playing as well as he did before his injury, and Oriakhi owned the glass with 7 offensive rebounds here. And they were needed, because Phil Pressey was a horrific 3-for-19 from the field. Although Brandon Paul, at 5-for-18 shooting for the Illini, wasn't much better.

Missouri has their first big win of the year. They also have a decent win over Stanford. They have to avoid a letdown at UCLA on Friday, and then against a very tough Bucknell team January 5th. They also have a couple of good measuring stick games early in SEC play, on the road at Ole Miss and Florida.

The Illini will try to lick their wounds next Saturday against Auburn. They have a brutal open to their Big Ten schedule... although it feels like I can say that about just about every Big Ten team. The conference depth is filthy this year.

Old Dominion 63, Virginia 61
This was a really, really shocking upset. Virginia came into this game playing very clearly like an NCAA Tournament team. Old Dominion, on the other hand, came into this game 1-10 with losses to VMI, Texas-San Antonio, William & Mary, College of Charleston, Holy Cross and Cleveland State.... and the one win came against Morgan State. ODU didn't out-shoot Virginia, either. They just played an even game the whole way, and over the course of the night got one more shot to fall.

The big problem for Virginia is Jontel Evans. The team's offense has flowed so much better when he has played. They lost to Delaware and George Mason without him. Then with him they beat Wisconsin and Tennessee. But he's hurt again, and it's unclear how long he'll be gone. This is by far their worst loss of the season, and it's a crucial loss for their at-large resume as well. Even assuming that they beat Wofford on December 30th, they could go 10-8 in ACC play and still miss the Tournament. They're either going to need to get to 11-7 or they're going to have to do damage in the ACC tournament.

Blaine Taylor is trying to rebuild this team with young players. Freshman Aaron Bacote (17 points and 4 assists here) is the best of the bunch. This is certainly a very encouraging win, though it will probably end up being their highlight of the season. Their next game will be next Saturday, against Fairfield.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Jeff Withey Leads Kansas Over Ohio State

#9 Kansas 74, #8 Ohio State 66
There are few things in college basketball as impressive as the Kansas interior defense, led by Jeff Withey, the best defensive player in the nation. Kansas leads the nation in defensive block percentage and is third with a 37.6 2P% against. They held Ohio State a 35.3 2P% here. Withey only had 1 block, but his defensive presence doesn't always show up in the boxscore in blocked shots. Throw in a huge game from Ben McLemore (22 points on 8-for-17 shooting) and some hot Jayhawks shooting (a 56.1 eFG%) and Kansas was able to pull off the huge road victory.

That said, the media over-analysis of games like this is always stupid. Kansas didn't "want this game more" or "show more toughness" or prove that they're the better team. Despite everything I said in the first paragraph, Ohio State would have won if they hadn't gone ice cold behind the arc. They have hit 38.7% of threes this season, but hit only 25.8% here. Hitting their season average would have meant four more made threes and, assuming nothing else changed, the victory.

So while this is a great win for Kansas that will mean a lot on Selection Sunday, I don't think it changes the broader college basketball landscape. Kansas was the heavy Big 12 favorite even before this win. And despite this loss, Ohio State is still one of the three teams that I think has clearly separated itself from the rest of the Big Ten (along with Indiana and Michigan, of course).

The Jayhawks will play American next Saturday, and then will get a home game against Temple before opening Big 12 play. The Buckeyes will play Chicago State next Saturday, and then will open Big Ten play on January 2nd, against Nebraska.

Southern 53, Texas A&M 51
This is an embarrassing home loss for Texas A&M, but it gives me a chance to talk on the blog about some interesting stats I'd tweeted about earlier this week. I've been fascinated by the utter futility of the SWAC. The conference has been terrible for many years - by far the worst of any league that has an automatic NCAA Tournament bid (I don't think it's fair to compare to the Great West, since its membership is made up of teams transitioning to Division I and is constantly changing, though even the Great West has on average been better than the SWAC).

One stat that I brought up was the fact that the last SWAC team to finish a season in the Pomeroy Top 200 was Southern, back in the 2005-06 season. The most amazing stat? The SWAC had been 0-237 in games against the RPI Top 100 in games played over the past six seasons. The most recent win against an RPI Top 100 team was Alabama State taking down South Alabama on December 22nd, 2005. So does Southern now break that streak? Maybe. Remember, the RPI is all over the place early in the season. Right now, Texas A&M is 63rd in the RPI, but neither Sagarin or Pomeroy has them as a Top 100 team (though neither will have them too far out of the Top 100 when the new numbers come out tomorrow). So this could end up breaking the streak, but we won't know for a few months.

Texas A&M doesn't have any good wins this season, and they now have a terrible loss. Their remaining non-conference games will be against cupcakes Army and Houston Baptist (although you'd have figured Southern to be a cupcake, too). But then they'll enter SEC play for the first time with games against Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida and Alabama. So their at-large hopes might be officially doused fairly early in the 2013 calendar year. Southern, meanwhile, plays a non-Division I team next and then will open SWAC regular season play against Texas Southern, on January 2nd.

Indiana State 87, Ole Miss 85, OT
Weird things tend to happen at early season tournaments in places like Hawaii, so it's hard to tell if this upset was as big as it seems on paper. Ole Miss was a 10 point favorite in Vegas, but that's because Pomeroy had them as an 11 point favorite, and that Pomeroy rating was based on Ole Miss destroying cupcakes. Their schedule has been a joke, and they've only played two decent teams - Rutgers and Middle Tennessee. And they split those two games.

This is a pretty bad loss, to an Indiana State team that came in with a 1-3 record against the Pomeroy Top 225. More than anything, they looked like they didn't know what they were doing late in the game. The five step travel that Murphy Holloway took trying to score the game winner in regulation was just one of several comical moments as Ole Miss players showed great effort but were just awfully sloppy. Ole Miss took 83 shots from the field, hitting 34, of which only 11 were assisted. That in itself is pretty bad.

This loss means that Ole Miss gets dumped into the loser's bracket at the Diamond Head Classic. And seeing as how they need a quality non-conference win, that's not helpful. They'll get their chances for quality wins in SEC play, but it's never good to have a total non-conference wipeout when comparing resumes on Selection Sunday.

Indiana State will go to the Diamond Head Classic semifinals, where they'll play the winner of San Diego State vs San Francisco (it's looking at the moment like it will be San Diego State, though that game isn't over yet). They're not really contending for an at-large bid this season, but some good wins could catapult them into a strong Missouri Valley performance.

South Dakota State Takes Out Undefeated New Mexico

South Dakota State 70, #16 New Mexico 65
Because of the snowfall throughout the upper midwest, South Dakota State had to take a 1,200 mile bus ride to get to New Mexico, arriving in town only late last night. But a mere bus ride can't slow down Nate Wolters, who was superb. He scored 28 points on 9-for-15 shooting, adding a game-high 7 assists as well. New Mexico also just played poorly offensively. They forced 10 steals, but only hit 12 of 30 two-point attempts (30%). South Dakota State isn't a team with an imposing front line (they're 290th in the nation in 2P% against), so this was all on poor New Mexico offensive execution.

New Mexico moved up to #16 in the polls by opening the season 12-0. That said, they had won five of those games by five points or less or in overtime, so they were way overdue for a loss. They're not one of the 20 best teams in the country. They are a contender in the Mountain West, though. They have road games at Cincinnati and St. Louis before they start conference play. A split in those two games will be a fine result for them.

South Dakota State has probably already destroyed their at-large hopes with so many missed opportunities, as well as a terrible loss to Hofstra. This will be their only quality non-conference win. But despite those struggles, Nate Wolters is the reason why South Dakota State has been my pick to win the Summit since the preseason. They'll get a huge test in their conference opener, on the road at North Dakota State on December 29th. Those two teams are the two clear conference favorites, so a road win for the Jackrabbits would be huge.

Mercer 66, Alabama 59
Alabama, honestly, just got outplayed here by Mercer. Mercer had 16 assists on 22 made baskets - something that would have been inconceivable the past couple of years, when Anthony Grant had one of the ten best defenses in the nation. Langston Hall had 7 assists and only 1 turnover for Mercer. Alabama finished with only a 43.3 eFG% and 0.96 PPP.

You can get away with a mediocre offense when your defense is dominant. To put that in perspective, Alabama went 8-8 last season when scoring 1.00 PPP or less. This season? Only 1-3, despite softer competition. They are now 7-4 with this loss and an iffy loss to Dayton. They still need to beat Tulane and Oakland before starting SEC play (neither game is a total gimme). Considering how poor the SEC has been so far this season, the Tide will need to go at least 10-8 in SEC play to have a chance at an at-large bid, and probably need to get to 11-7.

With Belmont gone from the Atlantic Sun, Mercer was my preseason pick to win the league. They have bad losses to Wake Forest, Illinois-Chicago, Denver and Georgia, but also now have wins over Alabama and Florida State. So they're nothing like Belmont was in recent seasons, but they still have the ability when they're playing well to scare a quality opponent. They'll open conference play on New Year's Eve against Stetson.

Fairfield 60, St. Joseph's 57
St. Joe's was ice cold here, only hitting 17 shots from the field and finishing with a 37.3 eFG%. It's how they managed to only have 8 turnovers but still finished with under a point per possession.That said, Fairfield does this to teams. While Sydney Johnson will always be known as a "Princeton offense coach", the reality is that his successful teams have always been built around strong defenses. His teams are aggressive and quick on defense, and they were able to shut down St. Joe's here.

St. Joe's had that early season win over Notre Dame, but hasn't had a good win since. And they now have losses to Fairfield, Villanova and Florida State. Their RPI has fallen to 98th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE won't be much better. They really can't afford any more non-conference losses if they're going to be in a good position to earn an at-large bid. They will next play Iona on Friday, followed by a road game at Drexel the following Monday.

I talked a few days ago about a potential three-way battle between Canisius, Iona and Loyola-Maryland for the MAAC title. But Fairfield obviously needs to be in that discussion, too. And as I've talked about on twitter, the MAAC is deeper at the top than it's been in seven seasons. It's a wide open and strong league this year. That said, Fairfield has already suffered a home loss against Canisius, so they're a little bit behind the eight ball right now. They will play at Old Dominion on Friday and then will return to conference play with their road game against Canisius, on January 3rd.

Temple Topples Syracuse

Temple 83, #3 Syracuse 79
You know what you're getting with the Syracuse zone. Teams that don't come in prepared and disciplined just get eaten up by it. Teams that rely on one-on-one offense have no chance. But if you're a well-coached team that knows how to attack the zone, particularly in the high post, you can have success. Temple is one of the best coached teams in the nation, and they were very sharp here. More than anything, they were able to draw fouls in the paint and capitalize, finishing 29-for-36 at the free throw line.

Speaking of the free throw line, Syracuse was a putrid 19-for-34, though to be honest that's not that out of the ordinary for this team. They came in to the game hitting 66% at the line for the season, meaning that their expected performance was only 22-for-34. Since they continue to struggle with defensive rebounding, Syracuse is vulnerable to teams that can score at a reasonable rate and don't turn the ball over much.

Interestingly enough, I don't think Louisville fits these characteristics. They run a lot of one-on-one offense and love to play up-tempo, sloppy games. That plays into what Syracuse wants to do. Louisville is still my pick to win the Big East, but only narrowly. And that's why it's always a mistake when too many conclusions are drawn from games like this. The media always acts shocked when top teams lose. I have news for them: all of the top teams are going to lose multiple times this season. It's going to happen. It doesn't mean that we need to question whether Syracuse is still a Big East contender. They are.

This is a massive resume-building win for Temple. Coming off that bad loss to Canisius, they now have a big scalp for Selection Sunday. If they can get past Detroit on Friday, and then Bowling Green, they'll have a nothing-to-lose game at Kansas on January 6th. Even with a loss there they'll only need to go 9-7 or better in Atlantic Ten play to be on the bubble, and a 10-6 finish should put them in the Tournament.

While Syracuse surely would have preferred to be undefeated, it helps them to play a tough game like this. Boeheim, as he usually does, put together a cream puff non-conference schedule for this season. And his team even has a soft opening to Big East play. They won't play a likely NCAA Tournament team until they take on Louisville, on January 19th.

Baylor 79, BYU 64
Every once in a while, Baylor will get hot like this behind the arc. It's always led by Brady Heslip, who hit 3-for-5 on threes here. As a team, the Bears hit 9-for-18. Baylor has a significantly more imposing front line than BYU does. They weren't going to lose if they out-shot them from deep, too. Isaiah Austin continues to impress - he had 10 rebounds and 5 blocks here... and should have had a sixth block if not for that terrible foul call late. Austin has tremendous poise and physicality for a freshman. He's one of the most underrated freshmen in the country.

I can't figure out what's wrong with this BYU team. They have a lot of players who should be offensive weapons, or who have been good scorers in the past, but it's not working this year. And the sample size is starting to get large enough that it's very concerning. For example, not only is BYU hitting under 30% of their threes this season, but they've hit 24% or worse in all four of their losses (also their only four games against Pomeroy Top 100 opponents).

Baylor has this win and that Kentucky victory, but they also have a bad loss to the College of Charleston, and a potentially iffy loss to Northwestern. It's a Tournament resume, but they haven't yet given any signs that they can win consistently enough to seriously challenge Kansas in the Big 12. Right now they look like they're in a battle with two or three other teams for second place. They'll play at Gonzaga on Friday, and then will open Big 12 play against Texas on January 5th.

BYU is now 8-4 with no big wins and a potentially iffy loss to Florida State. They will play Northern Arizona on Thursday, and then Virginia Tech next Saturday. That Virginia Tech game will be their last chance for a decent non-conference win. Either way, with an ELO_SCORE that has dropped out of the Top 75, they're probably going to need to get to 11-5 in WCC play to make the NCAA Tournament.

#20 Michigan State 67, Texas 56
In a surprise to nobody, the Texas offense got bogged down and struggled to score. Their defense has gotten better the past couple of weeks, though, and they managed to really shut down the Spartans offense for the first half. A 16-6 run in the second half, sparked by Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne, blew this game open. But in the end, Texas finished with only 0.74 PPP, which isn't going to be sufficient against almost anybody.

This season, Texas is 0-4 when scoring 0.87 PPP or less. When scoring 0.88 PPP or more they are 7-1, with the one loss being that goofy loss to Chaminade in Hawaii. Assuming that they beat Rice next Saturday, they will need to go at least 10-8 in Big 12 play to earn an at-large bid. And even at 10-8 they'll enter the Big 12 needing a win or two. With four games against TCU and Texas Tech, that should be manageable, but they're going to need to win some road games. They haven't won a true road game yet this season.

There are still a lot of question marks about this Michigan State team. They got that great win over Kansas in the Georgia Dome back in early November, but other than that they had no other decent wins until taking down Texas here. They had actually fallen all the way to 25th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR before this win. They're obviously a Tournament team, but at this point they're a step below the big three of Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State atop the Big Ten. To me, they're in the second tier with Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. Their next game will be their Big Ten opener, on New Year's Eve at Minnesota.

Friday, December 21, 2012

Texas Thumps Discombobulated Tar Heels

Texas 85, #23 North Carolina 67
North Carolina usually loves fast-paced games like this (81 possessions), but they somehow managed to seem listless and out of energy as they ran up and down the floor. The Tar Heels looked clueless offensively, finishing with 18 turnovers and a 33.6 eFG%. In all, they scored 0.83 PPP. This isn't a new problem for them, honestly. They've faced three teams in the Pomeroy Top 100 this season, and failed to score 1 PPP in any of them.

I think North Carolina gets a pass on their offense from the media because they play at such a high tempo. They score a lot of points, so announcers and tv analysts assume that their offense is okay. I've talked about this phenomenon before (here and here). This season, they're unable to get the ball in the lane. They don't have a point guard who can create for others, and James Michael McAdoo isn't even close to fulfilling the preseason hype. They're scoring only 1.03 PPP this season, which is 108th best in the nation. Blech.

During this game it was reported that Myck Kabongo would have his suspension continue for the entire season. The NCAA changed their mind earlier today, however, ruling that he can come back in mid-February. I'm honestly a bit skeptical that he's going to be make a huge difference when he comes back. He has a lot of potential, and he's a good player, but he wasn't great as a freshman. He was still pretty raw. He'll need to be significantly improved to be the difference maker that a lot of Texas fans seem to think he will be.

The key for Texas is trying to hang on the Tournament bubble while Kabongo is out. They'd be NIT-bound if the season ended now, of course, with losses to Chaminade and USC, with this victory over UNC their closest to a quality win. They will play at Michigan State on Saturday. If they pull that upset they'll be back on the bubble. Without a win there they're going to at least 10-8 in Big 12 play to have any chance at an at-large bid.

North Carolina, as I said a few paragraphs ago, have fallen on their face in their three games against quality opponents. Like Texas, they'd be NIT-bound if the season ended now. After playing McNeese State on Saturday they'll get one more chance for a quality win the following Saturday, against UNLV. They'll open ACC play on January 6th, at Virginia.

UTEP 91, Oregon 84, 3OT
It's hard to come to strong conclusions about a game like this. Both of these teams had many, many shots to win. That said, Oregon probably deserved to win this one. They had 17 more offensive rebounds and 3 fewer turnovers. It's pretty rare that a team can have 20 more possessions than their opponent while losing. It typically takes something like Oregon's 29% three-point shooting and 52% free throw shooting. The bright spot for the Ducks continues to be freshman Damyean Dotson, who led his team with 20 points and also had 3 assists and 3 steals.

Tim Floyd put his team through a monster schedule, and I don't think he has the personnel to handle it. They finally collected their first decent win of the year, but it only gets them to 4-5 overall. They'll finally get their first cream puff of the season on Saturday when they play Arkansas Pine Bluff. After that they'll head right back into the breach, facing a road game at Colorado State before opening up Conference USA play.

This is Oregon's first bad loss of the season. Along with a good win against UNLV and a 9-2 overall record, their resume is still in decent shape. Assuming that they can get past home games against Houston Baptist and Nevada, they should be Tournament-bound if they can get to 10-8 in Pac-12 play.

Stanford 70, Northwestern 68
This was a crucial game for both teams. Both are bubble teams, and neither has a huge margin of error. Stanford jumped out to an early 32-14 lead here. Northwestern chipped away, finally drawing even with a Trey Demps three with around 6:30 to go. Stanford grabbed another small lead, and got tied up by another Demps three with 1:50 to go. But Josh Bright responded with a cold-blooded three that ended up being the game winner for Stanford. Northwestern didn't do themselves any favors with two missed free throws late. In all, they scored only seven points in the final 6:30 of the game.

It seems like Northwestern has more of these excruciating losses than other teams. But as it turns out, those intuitive feelings about clutch play always end up being disproven. Last season, for example, Northwestern went 6-6 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. Maybe it's just that these close losses feel so much more painful when Northwestern is involved. It's something about the way that they play.

This was a crucial win for Stanford after that NC State loss. This is their first quality win of the season, and they're now 8-4 ( which looks a lot better than 7-5, if nothing else). Assuming that they get past Lafayette on December 29th they'll only need to go 10-8 in Pac-12 play to be on the bubble. Getting to 11-7 should put them in a good position.

Northwestern falls to 8-4 with this loss. They have good wins over Baylor and Illinois State, along with that bad loss to Illinois-Chicago. They will play Brown on Sunday. Even assuming that they win that one, they'll need to get to at least 9-9 in Big Ten play to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. As good as the league is, and with Drew Crawford done for the season, that's an awfully large ask.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Marquette And Clemson Go Down On The Road

Wisconsin-Green Bay 49, Marquette 47
Marquette has been up and down all year. They had that great road upset of Wisconsin, but also got blown away by Florida and nearly lost to Southeastern Louisiana. Their offense is sloppy, and it leads to inconsistency. When they get a bunch of turnovers and get rolling, they put up points in bunches. But they can also get bogged down in the half court  Here they scored a putrid 16 points in the second half, and finished with 0.82 PPP overall.

A lot of credit has to go to Brian Wardle for putting together a perfect gameplan. He slowed the game down to an excruciating 57 possessions (Marquette's Pomeroy adjusted efficiency was more than 69 possessions per 40 minutes). His team limited turnovers (only 9 total) and Marquette offensive rebounds (again only 9). It forced Marquette to score efficiently out of their half court offense - something which they really have never done under Buzz Williams.

Marquette is 7-3 with that win over Wisconsin and now this bad loss. They will play LSU on Saturday, and then only will have North Carolina Central before starting Big East play. Assuming that they win both games, they should be able to lock up an at-large bid if they can get to 10-8 in conference play.

Green Bay moves to 4-7 and will play South Dakota on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina 69, Clemson 46
It's one thing to lose to a mid-level mid-major like Coastal Carolina, but Clemson got destroyed here by 23 points. Clemson can blame 4-for-21 three-point shooting for the final margin, but they were flat out outplayed. Coastal Carolina out-rebounded them, had more assists, fewer turnovers and more steals (a staggering 13 total steals for the Chanticleers). Coastal Carolina star Anthony Raffa stole the show with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting.

Brad Brownell is rebuilding this Clemson program, and his roster is pretty young, but they look like they're at least another year away from contending on the bubble. They are now 6-4 without any quality wins to offset this bad loss. They have two cupcake games left before opening ACC play on January 5th against Florida State. They will need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to have a chance at an at-large bid. I don't think they're getting there.

Coastal Carolina has a bizarre resume so far. They are 2-1 against Pomeroy Top 100 teams, and 0-4 against Pomeroy 101+ teams. Their next game will be on Saturday at College of Charleston.

#11 Cincinnati 60, Xavier 45
This was the rematch of last year's huge, ugly brawl. The players were more well-behaved this time. Xavier had their chances to win this game, too, but kept blowing them with putrid 3-for-14 free throw shooting and 2-for-13 three-point shooting. That 21.4 FT% was the second worst by any team in the country this season in a game where they attempted ten or more free throws (the worst was a 3-for-15 free throw performance by UMKC against Seton Hall on November 9th).

With Xavier missing their chances to take control of the game, Cincinnati went on a 21-6 run to open the second half and blow things open. Sean Kilpatrick was the spark of the run, scoring 11 of Cincy's 21 points over that stretch. In all, Kilpatrick ended up with 25 points, 7 rebounds and 4 steals.

The scariest thing about how well Cincinnati has played the past few weeks is that they've been cleaning up their sloppiness. They're taking care of the ball better and protecting the defensive glass better. We know that they're a ferocious defense, particularly in the paint (they're 2nd in the nation in 2P% against), and we know that they have two very explosive scorers in Cashmere Wright and Sean Kilpatrick. If they can cut down on the mistakes then they have a legitimate chance to contend for the Big East title.

Cincinnati, now 11-0, will play Wright State on Saturday. The following Thursday they'll play New Mexico, and then they'll begin Big East play with a very important road game at Pittsburgh on New Year's Eve.

Xavier is 7-3. They have a nice win over Butler, but also bad losses to Pacific and Vanderbilt. They will play Wofford on Saturday, followed by a road game at Tennessee the following Saturday. They'll get a chance in a strong Atlantic Ten to scratch their way back onto the Tournament bubble, but they've definitely dug themselves a serious hole to escape from.

Canisius Beats Temple; Now The MAAC Favorite?

Canisius 72, Temple 62
Temple is not an explosive offensive team, and they typically struggle to shoot the ball. When they go cold they can go ice cold, and that's what happened here at home against Canisius. They shot 4-for-27 behind the arc, including a brutal 1-for-12 from Scootie Randall. In fact, all of the Temple players not named Jake Ryan combined to hit 1-for-23 behind the arc. You'd think they could hit a higher rate than that taking one-handed shots from midcourt.

Canisius is led by Jim Baron, the longtime Rhode Island coach who was fired at the end of last season. Baron also brought his son Billy with him to Canisius, who has already become the best player on the team. Billy Baron led all players here with 19 points and 5 assists.

Canisius is now 8-2, including 2-0 in MAAC play with road wins at Fairfield and Marist. And that brings up the obvious question: Is Canisius the new MAAC favorite? Loyola-Maryland was my preseason pick, and their resume so far is not overwhelming, but that's because they put together a cupcake schedule. They are a strong defense and they can really get after the offensive glass, which is a key against a Canisius and Iona team that can struggle to protect the defensive glass. Speaking of Iona, they have wins over Georgia and Denver and nearly took out Rutgers, so they're a contender as well. At this point I think the level of play between these three teams has been even enough that I'm going to stick with my preseason pick of Loyola-Maryland, but another couple of weeks of this level of Canisius basketball will likely cause me to change my mind.

As well as Canisius has played, this is a bad loss for a Temple team that doesn't have a huge margin of error. They don't have a single big time win yet this season. They will play Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and also have a road game at Kansas, but barring a big upset in one of those two games they'll have quite a bit of ground to make up on other bubble teams in Atlantic Ten play. The Syracuse game is up next, on Saturday. Canisius will also play next on Saturday, at UNLV.

Stephen F Austin 56, Oklahoma 55
This was a terrible performance from Oklahoma. The stat that stood out to me was assists - Stephen F Austin had 17 and Oklahoma had 6. It's very difficult to only have 6 assists in a game, but this has been a problem for the Sooners all season long. They're only assisting on 46.7% of made baskets this season, which is 301st in the nation. It's a big reason why their shooting has been so bad (a 45.9 eFG%) and why their offense is so sluggish (they've broken 1.02 PPP only three times in ten games).

And yes, Oklahoma would have likely sent this game to overtime if Buddy Hield had made a free throw in the final seconds, but they deserved to lose this game. They didn't play well in any facet  of the game. The Sooners are now 7-3 with half-decent wins over West Virginia and Texas A&M to go with this bad loss and a potentially iffy loss to Arkansas. They now have more than a week to recover before taking on Ohio, on December 29th. It's the final quality opponent in their non-conference slate.

Stephen F Austin was my preseason pick to win the Southland, and they're playing even better than I had projected. Their defense is suffocating (they've allowed more than 0.92 PPP in only one of seven games against Division I opponents), and they now have a nice win to put on their resume. They're not going to contend for an at-large bid, of course. But this is the type of win that can mean the difference between a 16 or 15 seed, or between a 15 or 14 seed. And that can make the difference between having a winnable game or a not-really-winnable game in the Round of 64. Their next game will be tomorrow, against Grambling.

#25 NC State 88, Stanford 79
Stanford acquitted themselves very well here. On the road, they hung in with NC State's explosive offense. And they actually did it without a good shooting night from Chasson Randle (5-for-15 from the field). Dwight Powell was the star for Stanford, scoring 23 points (on 10-for-21 shooting) and adding 8 rebounds and 4 assists. As a team, Stanford also outrebounded NC State, and had 19 assists to only 6 turnovers. The 1.17 PPP that they scored represented their most efficient offensive performance since 1.27 PPP against Nevada during last season's NIT.

But NC State is tough to beat because they are so efficient at scoring in the paint. Richard Howell and CJ Leslie are both very good at scoring down low, and Lorenzo Brown is really good at attacking the basket (he led all players with 24 points and 5 assists here). NC State is now 6th in the nation in 2P% (57.4%) and fourth in the nation in eFG% (57.5%). It would be fascinating to see them take on a team with really dominant post defense, like Kansas. The best interior defense in the ACC is probably Virginia, so that will be one of the match-ups to watch in ACC play.

NC State is now 8-2 with this win and a win over UConn, and without a bad loss. Assuming they can beat St. Bonaventure on Saturday they will only have a pair of cream puffs left after that before beginning ACC play. Even a 9-9 ACC record will probably be sufficient for an at-large bid. A 10-8 record would put them in a very safe position.

Stanford is 7-4 with no terrible losses, but without any really good wins either. They have an important road game coming up at Northwestern on Friday. Without a win there they're going to need to go at least 11-7, and probably 12-6, in Pac-12 play to earn an at-large bid.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Arizona Beat Florida, Should Be Ranked Behind Them

#8 Arizona 65, #5 Florida 64
This is my second of two posts catching up on recaps from the weekend. And what's interesting about writing a recap nearly two full days after a game ended is getting to respond to the media hype. And there has been quite the debate on twitter about this game, which comes down to the classic line between the statistically-inclined community and the legacy media dinosaurs. To the media dinosaurs, there's no thinking involved with the new Top 25 poll. And that's why Arizona jumped way ahead of Florida - four spaces ahead in both the AP and Coaches polls.

Of course, anybody who watched this game knew that Florida played better. They had a brutal collapse in the final couple of minutes. And even regardless of that, homecourt advantage is worth four points, so winning by 1 at home means that on average you'd lose by 7 on the road. Give Florida those 8 extra points and they're up by 14 with a minute to go instead of 6, and they don't even have a chance to blow this game. This game gave more evidence that Florida is better than Arizona, not less.

The argument from the media dinosaurs is the predictable "Why should we ignore who wins the game?? Why play games if you don't care about the actual results on the court??" And the answer, of course, is that nobody is saying that. If Arizona had dominated this game and won by 20 that would have been very different from what happened. And if all that matters is wins/losses, which is how pollsters vote in both football and basketball, then you end up with the absurdity that teams are better off playing mediocre against bad teams than playing well against good teams.

As Ken Pomeroy put it on twitter early today, if Florida had played Stetson instead of Arizona and won on a buzzer beater, every pollster would have had them ahead of Arizona. Beating Stetson by 1 is way worse than losing by 1 at Arizona, yet the pollsters treat it as a significantly better performance. That is, to put it mildly, idiotic. This is why in college football, where the human polls determine who plays for the national title (the computers are irrelevant window dressing in the current form of the BCS), all of the top teams schedule cupcake opponents. What's the incentive to play a better team?

If Florida and Arizona played on a neutral court tomorrow, Florida would be a 6-7 point favorite. If the game was in Gainesville, they'd be a 10-11 point favorite. Yet to many of the people who cover this sport for a living, you can't even consider ranking Florida ahead of Arizona. Go figure.

Anyway, the fact that Arizona was even in this game impressed me, and I moved them up to a 4 seed in my bracket projection. I think that's about right for them. It's very hard for me to see them getting higher than a 3 seed. Despite what the idiot pollsters think, there's no way that Arizona is even close to being one of the five best teams in the country. Florida, meanwhile, is rated the #1 team in the country by both Pomeroy and Sagarin. They're still looking very safe for a 1 seed. The next tough game for the Gators will be Kansas State on Saturday. Arizona's next tough game will be their Pac-12 opener against Colorado, on January 3rd.

#14 Gonzaga 68, Kansas State 52
Kelly Olynyk's emergence this year has been amazing. He was an afterthought for Gonzaga last season, but has arguably been their MVP this season. He led all scorers with 20 points here, on 10-for-13 shooting. And overall, Gonzaga dominated the paint. The Zags hit 53.8% of their two-pointers, compared to Kansas State's 33.3%.

Kansas State's lack of a post scorer has been a problem all season long. None of their bigs are aggressive shooters, and none are efficient scorers. Angel Rodriguez and Rodney McGruder run the offense. But since nobody on the team can hit outside shots consistently, opposing defenses can pack the paint and force them to score over the top. They have played two quality opponents this season (Michigan and Gonzaga), and scored a total of 0.87 PPP against them.

I really don't think Gonzaga played that poorly in their Illinois loss. They didn't play well, but they also experienced a ridiculous Brandon Paul game. Brandon Paul had a 43 point game last year that allowed a mediocre Illinois team to take down an elite Ohio State team. Upsets happen. Gonzaga is still a borderline Top 10 team, in my opinion.

The Zags will play Campbell on Wednesday, followed by Baylor on December 28th. Kansas State will take on a somewhat feisty Texas Southern team on Wednesday before a huge game against Florida on Saturday.

#16 Creighton 74, California 64
Creighton really struggled here, in all phases of the game. California had been playing very soft this season, but they really got after a physical Creighton squad, dominating the boards (a 34.8 OR%, compared to a 16.2 OR% for Creighton). And they'll feel like they could have won this game if star Allen Crabbe hadn't shot a terrible 6-for-26 from the field. But Doug McDermott was able to take Creighton on his back, hitting threes (4-for-7 behind the arc) and doing damage in the paint (10-for-10 at the line), ending up with 34 total points.

Creighton is 10-1 with wins over Wisconsin, California and St. Joe's, along with an iffy loss to Boise State. A home game against Tulsa on Wednesday is their final non-conference game. Assuming that they win it, a 13-5 record or better in Missouri Valley play should be plenty for an at-large bid. I don't think they'll have trouble getting there. The question is how high of a seed they can get in March. Right now I have them as a 4 seed, and they could move up to a 3 if they really dominate in the Missouri Valley.

California has now lost three straight to drop to 6-3. In their defense, there's nothing wrong with losing to Wisconsin, UNLV and Creighton - three teams all ranked in the Top 20 of both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. The problem for California is that they need big wins, and their only real chance left is a road game at Arizona on February 10th. They will probably need to get to 11-7 or better in Pac-12 play to earn an at-large bid. I think they can get there, but it's an unfortunate missed opportunity that they couldn't find a way to steal a win against one of those three elite opponents. One win there would have made things much easier on them.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Louisville Overcomes Slow Start Against Memphis

I know, folks. I'm behind on finishing up my recaps from the weekend. So I'll have two posts tonight going over the rest of those games. Here is the first one:

#6 Louisville 87, Memphis 78
Louisville was absolutely ice cold to open this game. In the first 11 minutes they shot 3-for-13 from the field (a 23.1 eFG%), falling behind by as many as 16 points. But those shots were eventually going to fall, particularly against a Memphis team currently 198th in the country in eFG% against (48.9%). Although worse than Memphis's shooting defense is their inability to keep opponents out of the lane. They are 237th in the nation in FTRate allowed, and they allowed a staggering 46 free throw attempts here, including 12 apiece to Russ Smith and Peyton Siva.

Memphis wasn't a particularly fundamentally sound team under John Calipari, and they've gotten awfully sloppy under Josh Pastner. They always play a lot of one-on-one offense, they are always bad on the defensive glass, and they are really bad about playing sound defense (they have been outside the Top 200 in the nation in FTRate against in every Pastner season so far).

But that all said, I don't totally understand all of the bashing Memphis got after this game. They were playing one of the five best teams in the country and only lost by nine. It's not a great result, but it's not embarrassing. That 16 point lead early was always a mirage - Louisville wasn't going to finish the game with a 23.1 eFG%. I know that Memphis hasn't had any really big wins under Pastner, but it's not like they get a lot of chances. Their conference stinks, and it's very hard to get quality teams to come play at their place. I think they've had three Top 25 teams come to the FedEx Forum in Pastner's entire tenure there. Memphis is still a good team that should win Conference USA easily and that will have the chance (with the right draw) to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.

This is arguably the best win Louisville has this season, although their victories over Illinois State and Missouri also came over likely NCAA Tournament teams. Regardless of their resume not being the best right now, they're playing really well. Pomeroy rates them the 3rd best team and Sagarin has them 5th, and in my view I lean toward Pomeroy here. Louisville shouldn't be seriously tested again until they play Kentucky on December 29th. Memphis has a relatively easy schedule until they play at Tennessee on January 4th.

Iowa 80, Northern Iowa 73
Northern Iowa fans can be forgiven for feeling like they should have won this one. Iowa was red hot, hitting 12-for-25 behind the arc, compared to 3-for-16 for Northern Iowa. And at the same time, Iowa earned 37 free throws, compared to 17 for Northern Iowa. I didn't watch enough of this game to know how much of that differential was due to homecourt reffing, but Northern Iowa is not a team that usually puts a lot of people on the foul line. They had a 75.5% FTRate in this game, which was more than double their second worst fouling performance of the season.

But none of that matters to Iowa, who have really turned things around after a slow start to the season. They had an iffy loss to Virginia Tech and had some unsettling narrow wins over cream puffs. But they've bounced back with back-to-back nice victories over Iowa State and Northern Iowa. It's looked for a while like the Big Ten has seven safe NCAA Tournament teams and four clear non-Tournament teams, with Iowa in the middle. Right now, you have to learn toward them being a Tournament team. As long as their play over the past two weeks isn't a fluke, of course.

Iowa has two cupcakes up next, but then has a brutal opening to their Big Ten regular season schedule (vs Indiana, at Michigan, vs Michigan State, at Northwestern, vs Wisconsin, at Ohio State, at Purdue). If they even achieve a 3-4 record over that stretch, that will be fantastic and have them right on pace for an at-large bid. The Indiana game opens things up on December 31st. Northern Iowa, now 6-4, heads to Vegas to play UNLV on Wednesday. They really need to win that one if they're going to get back into the bubble conversation.

VCU 73, Alabama 54
Alabama is not great at taking care of the ball or getting defensive rebounds. In other words, they were easy prey for VCU. The Rams only had 9 offensive rebounds (a 37.5 OR%), but the 11 steals led to a lot of easy layups. Traveon Graham is a VCU name to keep in mind going forward - he didn't play much last season but is very aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. His attacking style paid off here with 14 points that included 6-for-6 at the free throw line and 4 offensive rebounds.

VCU is 7-3 without any really big time wins (Memphis, Alabama and Belmont), but they're awfully good. Pomeroy has them up to 15th in the nation, and they're 12th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. And for certain types of opponents (teams that struggle against the press or that can't protect the glass) they're just a nightmare to play. They will play Western Kentucky tomorrow, which will be their toughest game until they take on Lehigh on January 5th.

Alabama has lost three straight, including an iffy loss to Dayton. What's more surprising than their offense, which has never been good under Anthony Grant, is their scuffling defense. Last season they only allowed 0.90 PPP, including 0.92 PPP in SEC play. This season they've allowed at least 0.95 PPP in five of eight games against Division I opponents, including 1.17 PPP in each of their last two losses. They will try to bounce back on Wednesday at Texas Tech. Their final four non-conference games are all against likely RPI 100+ teams, but none is a true cupcake. Statistically, there's a pretty good chance that they're going to lose one of those four games, and that will pile yet another bad loss on their resume. They really need to try to find a way to get through those games unscathed.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

W-13 BP68

It's Finals Week, which means that for the most part there wasn't a lot of action. Things really climaxed well on Saturday, though, with some really nice games. I'm not going to overreact to pseudo-buzzer beater losses in my bracket, but Arizona definitely moved up the bracket. They've impressed me - I underestimated them before the season.

What makes this bracket unique from other brackets you see on the internet is that this is a projection of Selection Sunday, while the other brackets are all "how things stand now". I never understood why everybody does it the latter way, for a few reasons. First, how do you judge teams that have only played one or two quality opponents? What would you do with a team like LSU that, prior to yesterday, was undefeated after beating a bunch of cupcakes? I don't see how you make a meaningful bracket without making some sort of future projection.

More importantly, I don't get why anybody cares. What fans want to know is if their team is on pace to make the NCAA Tournament, and if they're going to actually get there. I try my best to do that. If you look at the other brackets, you'll get no idea. For example, here is the Bracket Matrix. Of the 19 brackets, two have Kentucky out of the Field of 68 altogether. I'm sorry, but that's insane. Kentucky is one of the 25 best teams in the country, and has a realistic chance to be one of the ten best by the end of the season. There is zero chance that they'll miss the Tournament. That's not the only bad bracket pick, it's just the worst right now.

On Selection Sunday, the Bracket Matrix is probably your best bet for consensus brackets - the real bracket always ends up being close to that. But this early in the year? Some of those brackets are just insane. If you want to know whether your team is making the Tournament, my projected bracket is a much better shot.

Speaking of the teams making the Tournament, I had two changes to my Field of 68 this week. I moved Iowa and Colorado into the Tournament. To make room for them, St. Joseph's and Florida State were booted out.


Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Michigan
2. Syracuse

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Kentucky
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. Michigan State

4. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
4. Notre Dame
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Minnesota

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. NC State
5. Georgetown
5. Cincinnati

6. UNLV
6. Butler
6. North Carolina
6. Illinois

7. Baylor
7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. Marquette
7. Wisconsin

8. Pittsburgh
8. Oklahoma State
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Missouri

9. California
9. Iowa State
9. Maryland
9. Wichita State

10. Ole Miss
10. Alabama
10. Kansas State
10. Temple

11. New Mexico
11. Virginia
11. Stanford
11. St. Louis

12. St. Mary's
12. Iowa
12. UCLA
12. Colorado
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

13. OHIO (MAC)
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)

15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Florida State, UMass, Saint Joseph's, Xavier, Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, Illinois State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Oregon, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, La Salle, St. John's, Seton Hall, Purdue, Oklahoma, George Mason, Akron, Boise State, Oregon State, Washington, LSU, Texas A&M, North Dakota State

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Richmond, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, SMU, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Belmont, Arizona State, Washington State, Lehigh, Santa Clara, San Francisco, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State