Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Bubblicious

A mid-week update on some of the big games from the last few days. I'm going to stick to games with big bubble connotations:

Stanford 75, #2 UCLA 68
An absolutely huge win for the Cardinal (yes, that's the correct grammar). They didn't outplay the Bruins by any means, but they hit big shots at the end and pulled out a massive upset. Up until this past week, Stanford wasn't at the forefront of anyone's bracket prediction, but with back-to-back wins over USC and UCLA they will probably be in just about everybody's bracket now. They have a great RPI and are sitting pretty at 6-3 and a tie for fourth in the Pac-10. The only thing that they have to look out for is that there are a lot of very good teams sitting just behind them. USC is also at 6-3, Arizona is 5-4 and Cal is 4-5. Don't forget Washington sitting there at 3-6. And I don't think anyone expects Stanford to catch UCLA, Oregon and Wazzu at the top of the conference. The Pac-10 has been a great conference this year, but they're not getting 8 teams. They're not even getting seven. At best, I can see them getting six. If Stanford drops to sixth and has a team like Arizona sitting behind them at 7th, well the Cardinal might just be NIT-bound. Don't forget, their next three conference games are at Cal, Wazzu and Washington. That's brutal. They could easily lose all three. Looking at their schedule, they could very easily finish 8-10 or 9-9. They are not a guarantee by any means. But a win like this will go a long way on Selection Sunday, because not many bubble teams have a marquee win like this.

Virginia 64, #17 Clemson 63
A huge win by the Cavaliers keeps them smack dap in the middle of the bubble as well. They are the classic bubble team with a decent record (12-6), some good wins (Arizona, Clemson, Maryland) and no real awful losses. They still have a pretty weak RPI (47th), but a few more wins will fix that because they have an outstanding strength of schedule. If anything, the best thing they have going for them is that 5-2 ACC record. By the way, why aren't people more surprised at that 4-4 ACC record for Clemson? Despite that 16-0 start, they haven't locked up a Tournament bid yet. They need to get their act together or they can really start getting nervous.

#23 Virginia Tech 73, Georgia Tech 65
I wasn't so much impressed by Va Tech in this one as I was disappointed by Georgia Tech. They just had no energy on defense, and the Hokies shot a ridiculous 60% from the field. No one shoots 60% from the field unless the other team plays bad defense. It's especially disappointing when you consider how tenuous this team's hold on the bubble is. I gave them a generous spot in this past weekend's BP65, but they're definitely falling out now. They are now 2-6 in conference and 0-6 on the road. That's pretty awful. They need a big turnaround soon or else. As for Va Tech, they've built up a cushion right now. They're due to lose a few bad games the rest of the way, but with an RPI of 15 and a record of 4-2 against the RPI top 50, they can lose a game or two and still feel fine.

West Virginia 64, Depaul 52
A good "taking care of business" win for West Virginia, a team that seems to be on the right side of the bubble for now. They've had an easy schedule, but 16-4 is 16-4. They're also a solid 5-3 in the Big East and a decent 3-3 against the RPI top 100. As a sidenote, they actually moved to 17-4 and 6-3 in the Big East while I was writing this post. They haven't wrapped anything up, but I think that continued solid play will get them in. The'yve shown good maturity and teamwork for a team this young. I've been really impressed by John Beilein this season. As for Depaul, their at-large hopes are on real life support. They are barely above .500 on the season, and an awful 3-8 against the RPI top 50. With teams like Stanford, Vanderbilt and Wichita State coming on, I can't see any reason for someone to take Depaul seriously.

#19 Notre Dame 103, Syracuse 91
A wild up-and-down game for these two teams. The Syracuse defense was just terrible, giving up 61 points in the first half alone. Notre Dame forced 8 steals, and just sliced up the Orange defense. After not too much of that Irish luck last year, Notre Dame is looking like a pretty safe at-large team right now. As for Syracuse, they're a very bubblicious 4-4 in the Big East. They have an RPI of 59, and a record of 5-6 against the RPI top 100. All stuff that looks decent, but nothing that wows you. They need some more wins, because no one is making it out of the Big East with a .500 conference record.

Wichita State 67, Northern Iowa 61
No team has had more ups and downs this year than the Shockers. They went from a 2 seed in some brackets to nearly a .500 record. Now, they're back to 6-6 in the Valley, and they're red hot. They did their best to try to blow a big lead in this one, but with the win they have worked their way all the way back to the fat part of the bubble. Good defense shut down a Northern Iowa team that has been good this year, but not quite good enough to beat really good teams. They're likely a Tournament team, but they don't really strike me as too likely to actually win a game. As for the Shockers, they've got that RPI back in the top 50. A few more wins and they'll actually be in good shape. They just need to make sure they finish over .500, because no 9-9 team is getting out of the Valley. A home game against Valley leaders Southern Illinois this weekend should be a huge test. A win and they'll be back in almost everyone's bracket.

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Starting the Last Ten

The beginning of the final ten games of the regular season. That was ESPN's theme for this weekend, so let's go with it:

Providence 84, UConn 72
I'm on the brink of giving up on this Connecticut team. They have so much talent, but just are finding ways to lose games. This was a fast paced game with a lot of shots, and a lot of missing for the Huskies. A lot of offensive rebounds and missed bunnies led to 38% shooting. With all this talent struggling to play together, you have to wonder about Jim Calhoun. I know that he's an absolute institution in New England, and there's just about nothing he can do to get himself fired (not that I'm suggesting he be fired), but you have to wonder about whether he's losing touch with his players. Let's remember how much talent he had last year (four of the top 23 picks in the NBA draft) and how it always seemed like the team underperformed. Guys like Rudy Gay were so great when they tried, but just seemed to zone out at times and lose to teams they shouldn't. This year's team is similar in that it has a ton of talent that's underperforming. Of course, last years team had so much talent that underperforming meant losing in the Elite 8. This team's talent is such that underperforming could mean NIT. In fact, right now that's what I'm predicting. This particular loss dropped them out of the BP65 for the first time this season.

#4 North Carolina 92, #19 Arizona 64
The story of Saturday. The Tar Heels are just an amazingly talented team, and still my favorites to win the National Title at this point. They have so many offensive weapons that they can score 80+ points on anybody. Throw in an Arizona team that has played awful defense of late and you have the formula for an offensive show. No one's questioning Arizona's offense. They may not be Carolina, but they have one of the top offenses in the country regardless. They were unbelievably cold from the perimeter in this one, which is what made this one the real romp it was. Anytime a team shoots 1-for-23 from behind the arc it's about more than good defense, it's about a team that just is having one of those days. Throw in a more reasonable 7-23 or 8-23 and suddenly this goes from a romp to a close game. And in that way it's a shame, as this game easily could have been a 92-88 barnburner. But bad days happen, and that's why Arizona has to put more effort on defense if they want to be a truly elite team. If they can just put together a halfway decent defense they're a Final Four threat.

Missouri 71, Texas Tech 58
An important game for two bubble teams. Right now, Tech has several big time wins that give it a pretty solid resume. They've looked much better and much more relaxed since they got that Bob Knight wins record out of the way. As for Missouri, regular readers of this website know how much I love Mike Anderson. He is going to turn Missouri into a real Big 12 force. But despite some hope early this year that they might make it back to the Tourney in year one, I still think it's going to take another year or two for Anderson to really build the talent that he needs. He needs some real athletes, as well as some experienced players who can turn the ball over less (as this breakneck style has led to a lot of offensive turnovers for the Tigers as well). Still, the win here keeps Missouri alive on the bubble. A very key game will be on Wednesday at Kansas State. I can't see the selection committee taking more than six teams from the Big 12, so Missouri needs to finish ahead of K-State if they want to be taken seriously on Selection Sunday.
Louisville 76, Syracuse 71
A great comeback for an essential win for Rick Pitino's Cardinals. You had a Syracuse team that came out fired up and opened up an almost-insurmountable lead. Louisville worked their way back by feeding off the crowd's energy, forcing 17 turnovers, grabbing 18 offensive boards, and just finding a way to score 76 points despite only 36% shooting (and 25% from behind the arc). One thing you can't help but notice about this Louisville team is that this isn't a great team - no one sees them winning the Big East or being a serious player in the Tournament. But they're just winning the games they need to win to justify my support for them in the BP65. In conference play you have a lot of games against middle-of-the-pack/bubble teams. They aren't season highlights if you win, and you don't panic if you lose. But they add up. And Louisville is winning those games: Against Providence, at Depaul, vs. UConn and now vs. Syracuse. They are now heading into another key four game stretch, at Cincy and Nova before coming home for South Florida and Georgetown. They need atleast two wins there to set up games at Pitt and Marquette. They're currently 5-2, so a 3-1 performance in the aforementioned quartet of games would set them up at 8-3. That would mean that losses at Pitt and Marquette would only drop them to 8-5, still well on their way to an 8-11 seed.

Missouri State 85, Bradley 70
An outstanding shooting day for Missouri State (59% from the floor) led to another good win in conference as they try to stay in the running for the regular season Valley title. That said, they're a team that isn't really on the bubble. It would take a real collapse for them to fall to the NIT. Bradley, on the other hand, is a team that few expected to make a real run for an at-large bid. They suffered a big loss in Patrick O'Bryant to the NBA, but they've managed to score points and win games with sound play and experience (their seven leaders in points per game and minutes per game are all seniors and juniors). They have several good wins that keep their RPI high, but nothing that's really going to get them a bid (at home against Depaul, Southern Illinois and Wichita State, and on the road at Iowa State). They are currently sitting fifth in the conference, with Wichita State hot on their tail. The Valley won't get more than five bids, and since several of those teams have superior out-of-conference resumes (Missouri State, Wichita State, etc), Bradley needs to finish in atleast fourth place to get a bid. They have four home games left, which they really need to win. Then steal a game or two on the road and they might just steal an at-large spot from a team like Wichita State.

#5 Ohio State 66, Michigan State 64
Drew Neitzel can mail this video to all of the voters for the Big 10 All-Conference team. What an amazing performance almost single-handedly dragging the Spartans back from 20 points down in Columbus. I'm sure Thad Matta will have a lot to say to his team about not taking their foot off the pedal with a big lead. You also really have to question the Buckeye's hustle stats, coming down with an amazingly low five offensive rebounds. Combine that with only four steals and they're not getting a lot of extra possessions. They have a lot of great scorers on that offense, and you can make any team into an elite defense by throwing Greg Oden into the five spot, but hustle is so important for any team.

W-6 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas A&M

3. Oklahoma State
3. Duke
3. Oregon
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

4. Texas
4. Alabama
4. Arizona
4. Clemson

5. Tennessee
5. Marquette
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. AIR FORCE (MWC)

6. USC
6. LSU
6. Georgetown
6. Washington State

7. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
7. Boston College
7. Illinois
7. kentucky

8. Creighton
8. Maryland
8. Michigan State
8. Missouri State

9. West Virginia
9. Northern Iowa
9. Notre Dame
9. GONZAGA (WCC)

10. Indiana
10. Georgia Tech
10. California
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)

11. Virginia Tech
11. Texas Tech
11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Florida State
12. Arkansas
12. Louisville
12. Wichita State

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)


As promised, other teams seriously considered:
Virginia
UConn
Syracuse
Villanova
Michigan
Drexel
Bradley
UNLV
BYU
Stanford
Georgia
Vanderbilt

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Quick Recap

Just a quick run through some of the key Tournament-related games of the last week, before we get to today's games:

Auburn 81, #12 Alabama 57
Another embarassing performance by the Tide. I've talked before about how thin this team is, and I think this is leading to a situation where they're taking plays (or even entire games) easy. In this one, especially, Bama did not want to run with the excited Auburn Tigers, giving up the ball and easy lay ups. Auburn's 12 steals were the cause of their 58% shooting night, not any especially hot shooting hands. Another interesting thing to look at are the minutes. As you can by looking at the box score, Alabama simply doesn't believe in using their bench. Brandon Hollinger got a lot of time off the bench, spelling Richard Hendrix during his foul trouble. But the rest of the bench combined for 6 minutes. All of them combined! There's just no way for a team to have enough energy night in and night out if their starters have to play every minute. This has to be a huge red flag when the Tournament comes around, when you have to wonder how this team will be able to play two games in three days, which they would have to do every week that they survive.

#23 Virginia Tech 92, Miami 85
You have to give Tech credit for hanging in there after their UNC/Duke victory week. This was a team that wasn't a very serious bubble contender, and then went out and won two very close games. You expect a team like that to get a ton of hype and then fade back into mediocrity as soon as the spotlight is off. But they're continuing to win the games you need to win (like this one, over a very mediocre Miami team), and setting up a pretty good ACC record. A 10-6 conference record should be enough to get a bid. They're already 5-1, which means a .500 record the rest of the way should do the trick. They've got a few difficult road games, so it will be important to grab a win tomorrow at Georgia Tech. A loss there won't be devastating, but it will just be a missed opportunity. If they finish out 9-7 in the ACC, you have to wonder if their two big wins will be enough. Remember, their best out-of-conference win was over Appalachian State.

Southern Illinois 56, Northern Iowa 54
Enough of these last-possession wins and they stop becoming a fluke. Southern Illinois has just continued to win, despite a lack of an offensive star, and are now the team to beat in the Valley. Usually a team that wins a lot of games at the buzzer is a team with an offensive star - someone who can hold for one and just beat his man for the score. The Salukis, on the other hand, are a team of defensive stars. They excel at making the big stops at the end of the game, like they did in this one. As usual, they also took care of the ball, giving up only 6 turnovers to 23 for Northern Iowa. Both of these teams are probably Tournament teams, but the conference regular season crown will definitely affect seeding.

Vanderbilt 64, #22 LSU 53
Another bad loss for LSU, a perplexing team because they have so much talent. This is a team that many considered a Championship contender when the year started, and is now considered a Bubble team. I still think this team will end up with a halfway decent seed, but nothing like what most analysts had expected. On the other hand, this is the kind of win that boosts Vandy's resume. Like most teams with inferior talent, Vanderbilt won this one with defense. They forced LSU's big men to kick things out, then forced bad shots on the perimeter. 32% shooting isn't going to beat too many people.

Washington 89, #7 Oregon 77
A game Washington needed to win to stay viable as a bubble team contender. They managed to beat the Ducks by playing their game, beating the ball inside for a lot of easy shots. Oregon was just too small to handle Brockman and Hawes in the paint. They were forced to overcompensate, which also opened up some nice shots on the perimeter. Even with this win, however, Washington's resume is still awful. The win over LSU isn't looking nearly as impressive. And that 2-6 record in conference is just going to be really difficult to overcome. They need to play almost perfect the rest of the year to have a shot at the Tournament.

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Status Quo Saturday

Analysts love to use phrases like "Upset Saturday" and "Surprise Saturday" as lead-ins, to excite the fan. Well, this Saturday was clearly "Status Quo Saturday." The teams that have done well so far... continued to do well. Just look at a game like UW vs. Wazzu. It would have been a surprise to someone who hadn't watched college basketball in the last 3 months, but at this point in the season that kind of result is pretty expected. The fact is that Washington just isn't a Tournament team, and Washington State is. So, moving on to the games:

#21 Washington State 75, Washington 47
We'll start with this one. Offense has really plagued the Huskies lately, and this was about as bad as it's gotten. They have several good spot shooters, like Ryan Appleby, but they have a lot of trouble getting open shots. With Brandon Roy gone they don't anyone who can slice into the lane and draw the defense. They were hurt by not having Spencer Hawes at their disposal, but that alone doesn't excuse 28% shooting. Of course, some credit has to be given for the stifling defense of Wazzu. They play very sound, solid defense. No open lay-ups or short jumpers. The exact kind of defense that will frustrate a team like Washington. Washington State should move into the Top 25 tomorrow, and they're looking great. As for Washington, I just don't see how they can make the NCAA Tournament at this point. Even if they play great the rest of way, they're already 1-6 in conference and have a slew of tough games the rest of the way. Even if they play great basketball, 9-9 would be a miracle finish. And this slump has gone on too long to just be entirely a slump. I think the lack of scorers and exciting players off the dribble just makes this a mediocre Washington team. I see them finishing 7-11 or 6-12, and barely over .500 overall. That won't even get them close.

#9 Alabama 78, Georgia 76
An important comeback for a Tide team that has not played too well lately. They had struggled in conference, including two losses by very bad margins, and needed this win to keep their SEC record at 2-2. You look at this Bama team, and you see the talent that makes a lot of people see a Top 10 team, but they just really struggle with depth. But on any given night, when they can just let their starters go wild, they have some great ability. Ronald Steele, especially, has been an All-SEC player showing NBA talent. He wasn't the leading scorer in this one, but he came up big at the end with that ridiculous shot to win the game. The comeback in this one was impressive, but they can't use this much energy night in and night out. They now have two winnable games before a battle for the SEC West in Baton Rouge.

#3 Wisconsin 71, Illinois 64
Speaking of Alabama, the opposite elite team is probably Wisconsin, a team that goes solid ten guys deep. The reason they continue to win and win and win (a nation-leading 15-straight) is because they can take a struggling player out and plug in another player who's just as good. As you go through a BCS conference schedule, you can't expect your stars to have good games every night. Alando Tucker may be the Player of the Year so far, but one player does not a National contender make. In this one, they were playing at an Illinois team that almost never loses at home. And historically, Wisconsin has struggled on the road (last season they went 14-2 at home, and 2-8 on the road). And with Sports Illustrated Cover Mates Tucker and Brian Butch struggling with 22 points on 8-25 shooting, this is the kind of game you'd expect the Badgers to lose. But off the bench comes Greg Stiemsma with 12 points on 5-6 shooting after only average 1.6 on the year. In comes freshman Trevon Hughes with a burst of energy. And more great tough defense and rebounding off the bench by Marcus Landry, brother of Purdue's Carl. Just a great all-around effort to pull out the tough win.

Indiana 77, Connecticut 73
An important survival win by the Hoosiers, and a good game for them to build on. They were outplayed for the most part, but shot out of their minds from the line (20-for-21) and behind the arc (9-for-18). It's the kind of win that will likely come in handy as they try to make their case to the selection committee in 7 weeks. As for Connecticut, I think we saw signs of a talented team that's finally showing signs of life. They really beat up the Hoosiers inside, outrebounding they 37 to 20. Jeff Adrien went for a double-double (15 and 12) while Stanley Robinson almost had one of his own (21 and 9). They also did a better job of holding the ball, with only 13 turnovers. If they play like this every night, they're going to make the Tournament. They won't suffer a team shooting over 95% from the line and 50% from behind the arc too often. As long as they continue to own the paint, they'll compete near the top of the Big East.

Southern Illinois 58, Creighton 57
A huge battle in the Missouri Valley, and a huge road win for the Salukis. Nothing spectacular out of their offense, as per usual, but they've proven that their tough defense can take the crowd out of any game. Because they lack a recognizable scorer, or an elite slasher, Southern Illinois will never be an elite team. They arne't going to run through the Missouri Valley. But they are such a solid and consistent team that they clearly have the capability of putting together the 13-5 record it will probably take to win the conference. It goes without saying that this last-second victory could be the difference at the end of the year, as Creighton is one of the four real contenders to win the Valley. Missouri State and Northern Iowa, the other two teams with a legitimate shot at the title, are also probably the other two teams that will make the Tournament out of the Valley.

Appalachian State 81, Davidson 74
It's not often that I write reviews of Southern Conference games, but this was a huge battle between two teams with remarkably high RPIs. Both teams have kept their RPIs up by running through the rest of the conference, but their RPIs will drop as their strength of schedule plummets throughout conference play. With this impressive win at Davidson, Appalachian State has to be considered the conference favorite now. They've taken the conference bid from Davidson in the newest BP65. And the conference bid will be essential for these two teams, since I really can't see either of them getting an at-large bid, despite ESPN and other websites listing them as bubble teams. Appalachian State is a very senior-heavy team, and they should have the maturity to continue rolling through the conference. And they will not be an easy out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by any means. Davidson, on the other hand, is still very young. They don't have any seniors getting anything but garbage minutes. Expect them to be a really good team next year. I hope they schedule some more real BCS opponents.

W-7 BP65

Pretty amazing that there are only seven weeks until Selection Sunday. The first conference tournaments are only about 5 weeks away. Anyway, as per usual, the BP65:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas A&M

3. Arizona
3. Oklahoma State
3. Duke
3. Oregon

4. LSU
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
4. Alabama
4. Texas

5. Tennessee
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Clemson
5. AIR FORCE (MWC)

6. USC
6. Kentucky
6. Marquette
6. Georgetown

7. Washington State
7. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
7. Boston College
7. Illinois

8. Northern Iowa
8. West Virginia
8. Maryland
8. Michigan State

9. Indiana
9. Missouri State
9. Notre Dame
9. GONZAGA (WCC)

10. Georgia Tech
10. Creighton
10. California
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)

11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. UConn
11. Texas Tech
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Florida State
12. Arkansas
12. Louisville
12. UNLV

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. IDAHO STATE (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Watching the Bubble Already

If you're interested, ESPN is out with their first Bubble Watch. I'm not the biggest fan of some of their selections this early in the year, however. It seems like they just read names off the RPI list, rather than thinking about how good these teams actually are and how they will perform the rest of the way. One of the worst mistakes I noticed was the listing of Dayton as a bubble team, but not UMass. How could they list a team tied for seventh in the conference at 2-2 over the only team undefeated in the A-10? Well, Dayton does have a higher RPI, 59 to 65. UMass has the better record, but Dayton has the better strength of schedule and strength of schedule is a larger part of the RPI formula than actual record. But remember that the rest of the way these teams play essentially the same schedules. They're both in the same conference. So, their strength of schedules will converge, and the team with the better record will probably end up with the higher RPI. Dayton is living off a home victory over Creighton in early December, but people need to remember that Creighton was really playing awful early in the season. They spent that month losing to Fresno State and Hawaii as well. Dayton's second best win is a 4-point home victory over Louisville. But Umass won by four at Louisville, which is obviously more impressive. Meanwhile, all anyone has to do is watch some Atlantic 10 basketball to know that UMass is the better team. Turn on ESPN right now and watch them play Xavier if you don't believe me. Xavier and UMass are the two best teams in the conference. A schedule quirk means that they only get to play this one game against each other. It's not fair to the Minutemen (who won't get a home game), but a win here would go a long way to get them the A-10 regular season title and an at-large bid.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

More Game Recaps

Louisville 78, Providence 63
A big win for the Cardinals as they as they try to corner an at-large bid. The Big East won't get more than eight bids. Figure that Pitt, UConn, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette and West Virginia have likely bids. That means that Syracuse, Providence, Louisville, Villanova and perhaps even more teams are fighting for two bids. It's okay to lose at Pitt or at Marquette, but these games with other bubble teams are the most essential to win. What's interesting with this game is that usually Louisville wins when they rebound well. They struggle when they can't control the boards. In this case, however, Providence ripped down 43 rebounds to only 31 for Louisville. What happened in this one was that Louisville played extremely aggressive defense, forcing a remarkable 15 steals. In all, Providence turned it over 26 times. Louisville does have better athletes, and they could get away with that in this one. They obviously weren't faster than Marquette, which is why they lost that game two days later.

Marquette 81, #21 West Virginia 63
This game was a re-adjustment of sorts. West Virginia had over-achieved, while Marquette had under-achieved recently. Since the game was at Marquette, they should have been favored regardless. So even this 18-point win isn't a huge surprise. It doesn't change the fact that if the season ended now, West Virginia would still be a surprise at-large Tournament team. Also, as usual, Marquette goes as Dominic James goes. He's been playing at an all-Big East caliber for the past few weeks, with 17 or more points in seven of his last ten games, including 21 in this one. In this one they also benefited from a poor shooting night by West Virginia.

#25 Maryland 92, #14 Clemson 87
Well, Clemson had to lose eventually. It's nothing to really worry about. If anything, it's good for them to get it out of their system before North Carolina comes to town tomorrow night. They'll have less pressure and they'll play more loosely. Honestly, there's not much else to say here. Moving on:

Virginia Tech 94, #1 North Carolina 88
I don't know why Sportscenter didn't play this game up, because it was nearly one of the greatest comebacks in the history of sports. Virginia Tech had a 20 point lead with 3:48 to go. With under a minute to go, North Carolina had the ball with the lead down to four. Two blown possessions near the end ruined the comeback, but it was still a thing to watch. What surprised me in this game was the lack of hustle by North Carolina... until the last 4 minutes. The Tar Heels had a huge size advantage, but it seemed like Tech always came up with the key offensive rebounds in the second half that kept the lead large. I'm sure that a lot of bubble teams aren't happy with Virginia Tech's victories over North Carolina and Duke in the same week. Before this week, I don't think anyone considered them a serious at-large candidate. But at this point, they can't be ignored. They're 3-0 in conference, and 10-6 might be enough.

California 77, #24 Washington 69
I know that there's a #24 next to Washington's name, but at this point they actually have a low probability of making the Tournament. This is especially shocking to anyone who saw the Huskies beat up on LSU a month ago. Despite their size they have struggled to beat teams on the inside, and their ball-handling and shooting haven't been nearly enough to cope. Now they're 1-5, knocking on the basement of the Pac-10. And with so many good teams in that conference, it's too hard to imagine Washington even getting back to a winning record. California, on the other hand, is doing what they have to do. They probably need to finish fifth or better in the conference to nab an at-large bid. They're currently at 3-2, and tied with Stanford and USC for fifth. With Oregon taking out Arizona, the conference is really a mess. There could be a slew of teams at 12-6 and 11-7. Every game will matter a lot.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

W-8 BP65

As always, getting the BP65 out first. I'll have more commentary on yesterday's games later:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Arizona
2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Texas A&M
3. Oklahoma State
3. LSU
3. Alabama

4. Oregon
4. Tennessee
4. Duke
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Texas
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Kentucky
5. AIR FORCE (MWC)

6. USC
6. Marquette
6. Clemson
6. Georgetown

7. Boston College
7. Illinois
7. Washington State
7. MISSOURI STATE (MVC)

8. UConn
8. West Virginia
8. Notre Dame
8. Georgia Tech

9. Northern Iowa
9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Indiana
9. Maryland

10. California
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Michigan State
10. Southern Illinois

11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State
11. Creighton
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

12. Louisville
12. Wichita State
12. Texas Tech
12. UNLV

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

14. AKRON (MAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. IDAHO STATE (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Friday, January 12, 2007

It Ain't November Anymore

The theme of today's game recaps: It's not a big deal to lose a game or two early in the conference season, but soon enough you bury yourself so far in the standings that you'll never get out. I'm looking at you, Washington. I'm looking at you, Wichita State. Duke and UConn... watch out:

Georgia Tech 74, #11 Duke 63
What is there to say about Duke that hasn't already been said? I'd say that I was surprised by how Tech just pushed the Dukies around on the inside. They outrebounded Duke 29-18, and shot 56% due to their bigmen. Teams don't usually have 28 turnovers and beat the Blue Devils. Now, 0-2 isn't the end of the world, but Duke needs to start winning now if they want to finish near the top of the ACC. Duke has three winnable games in a row, followed by a home matchup with Clemson. A win there would put them in position to get back to second place in the ACC (I don't think anyone is catching UNC this year). A loss or two, however, will leave Duke hopelessly back in the standings.

#1 North Carolina 79, Virginia 69
While Duke is struggling, UNC is just dominating everyone right now. Virginia, to their credit, played them as tough as just about anyone else has recently. They had a lead early in the second half, and stayed within single digits until the very end. Honestly, it's hard to find a weakness with this Tar Heels team. All fans of the ACC have to be looking forward to their trip to Clemson next week. As for Virginia, they are really entering the make-or-break section of their schedule. A game at Boston College, followed by two games at home against Maryland and Wake Forest, then a game at NC State. All are winnable. All are losable. Within a couple of weeks we should know whether Virginia will be a Tournament team or not.

Marquette 73, #22 UConn 69
If I had to take a guess at Connecticut's problems so far this year, I would say that their schedule was a big mistake. They scheduled a series of patsies, heading straight into the Big East schedule to which they added a game at LSU. With all of the defections to the NBA, this team has a ton of youth, a lot of guys straight out of high school. All of them are used to beating up on inferior competition, so they learned nothing new by beating up on inferior competition throughout November and December. So they entered the West Virginia game still green, against a Mountaineers team that had already faced a few tough challenges. Then, after that loss, the Huskies had to head out to LSU for a game that would have been tough to win under any situation. Now, they're in a freefall, with a must-win game against St. John's tomorrow. A loss there, followed by a very possible loss at Pitt, would drop the Huskies to 0-4 in the Big East. That would, of course, eliminate the Huskies from any chance of winning the conference.

Illinois-Chicago 73, #12 Butler 67, OT
I explained in detail, back in November, why Butler isn't going to get a very high seed in March. I'm not going to rehash, but this is exactly what I was talking about. This loss won't drop Butler out of the Top 25, but another loss in the near future likely will. Similarly, how can Butler expect to climb back up in the polls when their next two games are against Youngstown State and South Dakota State? In all honesty, the Bulldogs had been playing with fire, with several close games recently. The fact is that they will have good nights, and bad nights. Sometimes they'll shoot 33% from the field, and when that happens they will occasionally lose to teams like UIC. Butler has done enough that they can withstand another loss or two in conference and still make the Tournament. But by no means are they going to do much better than #11 seed I have them in the most recent BP65.

#6 Kansas 87, #10 Oklahoma State 57
As we've all learned about Kansas over the last three years, no team has more ups and downs than Kansas. This game, clearly, was a good night for a Jayhawks team that has enough talent to beat anyone. But if we're going to dismiss the losses to Oral Roberts and Depaul as flukes then we have to be fair and dismiss games like this as well. One thing that actually worried me about this one were several blown dunks by the young Jayhawks. Immaturity has been the cause of their upset defeats in the past. It doesn't matter when you're up 20+ points, but when you're in a close game it's immaturity like this that will cost you the win. Kansas needs to watch out if they want to stay in control of the Big 12, because not every game will be this easy.

#23 Washington State 73, California 56
There's no question that this Cougars team is for real, and that they can play absolutely anybody tough. They are already 4-1 in conference, with a win over Arizona and only a 3-point loss at second-ranked UCLA keeping them from a perfect record. Even more amazing is that this team's roster sports only one senior, and no obvious stars to jump to the NBA. They could be a really elite team next year, if they aren't already. As for California, their underperformance in recent weeks is almost as shocking as Washington State's overperformance. They are really missing Leon Powe, who isn't exactly getting a ton out of his rookie year either - he's making near the league minimum and has scored a total of 71 points near the halfway point of the season. Cal needs to improve quickly, because right now they look like only the sixth best team in the Pac-10. The selection committee doesn't usually like to take that many. The Golden Bears lack any good out-of-conference wins, and two bad losses, so they probably need 11 wins to feel good about a Tournament bid. They have a good opportunity to get on the right track tomorrow against Washington.

Stanford 78, #24 Washington 77
Speaking of the Huskies, what happened to this team? They looked so good against LSU, and definitely have the out-of-conference resume of a Tournament team. But you can't go below-.500 in conference and go anywhere, regardless of who you beat. Especially with how strong the Pac-10 has been. Washington needs to pull an upset tomorrow at Cal and next week at Washington State (when was the last time those words have been uttered) or they are likely going to fall out of the BP65 altogether. A loss would give them five losses in conference. Figure they need atleast 10 conference wins for a Tournament bid, and that would mean only three losses the rest of the way. With games at Arizona and Oregon, and home games against UCLA and Oregon, it's hard to see that happening.

Indiana State 68, Wichita State 63
This backslide by the Shockers is amazing everybody. You wouldn't expect this out of a team with so many older, experienced players. Sometimes teams just have bad shooting nights, but Wichita State has had too many bad shooting nights lately for this to be a fluke. The good thing about being in the Missouri Valley is that every game is winnable, and there are a lot of "quality" wins. The bad news is that the talent is so evenly spread that no one can really go on a huge run. We know from experience that this conference is going to be a mess, with several teams within two games of the lead. Which means that Wichita State is in a lot of trouble. It's hard to see how they can possibly win the conference anymore. With the wins over LSU and Syracuse, they don't have to win the Valley, but they need to go almost perfect the rest of the way if they want an at-large bid.

Bradley 48, Southern Illinois 46
Speaking of the messy Missouri Valley, yet another game that makes the standings confusing. What surprised me about this game was how Southern Illinois actually lost. I didn't watch the game, so I can only judge what I've read. The Salukis outrebounded the Braves 34-17, and shot at 45% to their 37%. The only statistic that can account for their loss are the 20 turnovers, which are an especially large amount when you consider how few possessions there are in a typical Southern Illinois game. And this highlights what has continued to be their weakness over the last few years. The Salukis always play good defense, and usually rebound well, but they just really struggle to get good shots. Sometimes they turn the ball over a lot, sometimes they just shoot poorly, but they are never going to score a lot of points. It's what causes them to always be a good team, but never a great team. Still, they remain very alive in the at-large hunt.

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Regressing to the Mean?

The theme of today's game summaries is regressing to the mean. Several teams with big wins last week came back with bad losses. Other teams off to tough starts came back with good wins. Let's try to separate which teams are for real and which aren't:

Villanova 56, Georgetown 52

This is what happens when Roy Hibbert doesn't get the ball. He is the most dominant big man this side of Greg Oden, so can someone explain to me how he doesn't have a single field goal attempt? That's right, he shot 0-for-0 from the field. He managed to hit two foul shots to keep from the total shutout, but it's just unforgivable not to give him the rock in the paint. JT III was off to a good start at Georgetown, but he has to start calling timeouts to just order his players to give it to Hibbert. Of course, Hibbert also has to be aggressive on the offensive end. Georgetown is a better team than Villanova, and when Hibbert is hitting his shots in the paint they can beat almost anyone, but they need to play more consistently if they want to finish near the top of the Big East. In fact, more play like this will knock them back to the NIT if they're not careful. To take a quick look at Villanova, however, this has to feel like a good win. Any road conference win is good, especially over a likely Tournament team. Best of all is that they pulled off a tight win with Curtis Sumpter on the bench. They have a ton of young talent that could really play some good ball by the end of the season.

Notre Dame 61, #21 West Virginia 58
A good bounce back win for the Irish after getting crushed by Roy Hibbert's Hoyas. West Virginia came on strong at the end, but they held them off for an important victory. For West Virginia, I consider this a good loss, if there is such a thing. It's not embarassing to lose a close game at a Notre Dame team likely to make the Tournament. The Mountaineers fell down by a lot early and fought back, almost pulling out the win. The courage they showed in coming back from a large deficit on the road will really pay off later this season. You're going to lose games in the Big East, so it's important for a team that lost so many seniors last year to show that kind of maturity. With the big win over UConn, West Virginia now has a fairly easy road to 10 conference wins, which would most likely be enough for a Tournament bid. A couple more wins would even secure a pretty nice seed.

#13 Alabama 71, #18 LSU 61
Another bounce back game, in this case for Alabama after getting rocked by Arkansas. It's a good win that will keep Alabama near the top of the SEC, but I'm still not entirely convinced they deserve such a high ranking. Without a doubt, they have a very talented starting five. Ronald Steele, Jermareo Davidson, Richard Hendrix - any of these guys can take over a game. But they seem to be somewhat weak on the bench. They also struggled to contain a sort-of-injured Big Baby, who sprung for 24 and 17. LSU had a frightful shooting day. Switch up their 3-for-17 from behind the arc with Alabama's 9-for-16 and this turns from an Alabama win to an LSU romp. Keeping in mind that this game was in Tuscaloosa and I wouldn't move LSU down in the polls for this loss at all. I still think they're the second best team in the SEC. Remember that they get a shot at Bama at home in three weeks.

#4 Wisconsin 72, #5 Ohio State 69
Sometimes you hear people say that a game was a lot closer than the final score, but this game was not as close as the score. In a lot of ways, this game felt a lot like the Ohio State-Florida game from a couple weeks ago. In both games the home team (Florida & Wisconsin) was ahead by a little in the first half before opening up a double-digit lead midway through the second half. And in both games Ohio State responded by just launching up three-pointer after three-pointer. In the Florida game those shots just bricked, and they ended up getting crushed. In the Wisconsin game they got hot and all those shots fell, actually managing to get the game within a single possession in the last 15 seconds. But if anything, the fact that they almost won this game using that strategy is bad for the future of this team, because they aren't going to learn the proper lesson. They can't settle for just launching threes, because elite teams don't live and die by the three. It's okay for mid-majors like Winthrop to rely on the three and hope to get hot in March. But if Ohio State wants to be an elite team in the Big 10 they have to win night in and night out. They need to have a much more consistent offense. They need to pound it in to Greg Oden. I know that his right wrist isn't healed, but if he's on the floor he needs to look to score in the post. Oden rarely looked to make his own shot, yet was pretty succesful when he did. He is the most physically imposing college basketball player since Shaq. If he can fulfill his potential, and the other young Buckeyes can show a little more maturity on the floor, this is a team that can beat anyone. Remember that Wisconsin's win here is at home, where they've only lost 2 Big 10 games in the past 5 1/2 years, so in a sense they only held serve. These two meet again in Columbus. And Ohio State already has a big win at Illinois, where almost nobody wins. Wisconsin could easily lose their game in Champaign two weekends from now. Keeping this in mind, I'm still keeping Ohio State as the Big 10 champion and as a #1 seed in the BP65. Of course, they could lose to Tennessee this weekend and I'd probably have to reassess.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Upset Saturday

Georgetown 66, #22 Notre Dame 48
This game wasn't so much an upset as a statement game. Notre Dame had surprised a lot of people in working their way into the Top 25, and just as quickly they're back out. Meanwhile, we were all waiting for the true Georgetown team to stand up. This is a team that should be in the running for the Big East title, and for the first time all year they really looked like it. Their defense absolutely shut Notre Dame down. Meanwhile, Roy Hibbert showed flashes of flat-out un-stoppability. He shot 8-for-9 from the field, for 18 points. There is simply no one in the country who can stop Hibbert when he gets into the low post. A huge matchup this weekend at Pitt will determine if Georgetown really can win big games on the road, and really compete at the top of the conference.

Arkansas 88, #8 Alabama 61
Arkansas had struggled lately, so there was no reason at all to expect a performance like this. I didn't watch this game myself, but looking at the numbers it seems more like an Alabama loss than an Arkansas win. The Hogs shot 51% from the field, and forced 6 steals vs. only 4 for the Tide. But Arkansas got outrebounded, only to be saved by atrocious shooting by Bama. They also only forced 13 fouls on Alabama. In other words, Alabama controlled the inside and just couldn't shoot. They just didn't come out to play. It's a good win for Arkansas either way, but you have to really rethink Alabama as a Top 10 team. In fact, the only team from the most recent BP65 that Alabama has beaten has been Xavier. And a 7 point win, at home, over an Atlantic 10 team isn't anyone's idea of a Top 10 resume. Of course, they could easily beat LSU tomorrow and prove all of this wrong.

Virginia Tech 69, #5 Duke 67, OT

I don't want to say that Duke was due for a game like this, because no one expects a team like Virginia Tech to beat Duke. But Duke had a loss coming. They had won a series of close games, and certainly hadn't earned a #5 ranking. I don't want to harp on Duke's offensive aggressiveness, or ballhandling, because that's all been beaten to death by Jay Bilas and everyone else. What I was surprised by, however, was Duke's absolute ineptness at the end of the second half and overtime. No one knew what to do, and everybody just had a look of panic. They need an older player to set the tone at the end of games. DeMarcus Nelson saved them at the end of regulation, and it might have to be him in the future. I wouldn't trust anyone else on that team with a last-second shot.

#17 Oregon 68, #1 UCLA 66
Washington State 77, #7 Arizona 73, OT
USC 91, Oregon State 46
If you thought the Pac-10 was a two team race between UCLA and Arizona, think again. Oregon, USC and Washington State have all emerged as legitimate contenders, in addition to California. The standings are an absolute mess, with a four team tie at 3-1, and California and Oregon back at 2-1. There's a good chance that all six of these teams make the Tournament, but I don't think all of them can win this conference. California and Washington State are good, but neither have the firepower to win every night. Both will be in every game, and can beat anyone on any night, but neither has a real superstar to take over at the end of games. I still see UCLA and Arizona as the class of the conference, but expect it to be close. I wouldn't be too surprised if Oregon or USC steals the 2nd seed in the conference. Of course, both of those teams could also fall flat on their face. USC needs to prove they can win on the road, and Oregon needs to prove that the win over UCLA wasn't the highlight of the season.

#19 LSU 66, #14 UConn 49
I don't see any reason to consider UConn an elite team right now. They have a lot of great young athletes, but they just don't have a go-to scorer, and LSU was able to shut them down. Right now the Huskies have their best win against South Florida. That's right, South Florida. The only two tournament teams they've played have handled them easily. There is time to turn this around in the wide-open Big East, but I don't see why we should expect a turnaround until UConn beats someone.

Syracuse 70, #21 Marquette 58
Speaking of struggling Big East teams, what happened to Marquette? They were just ice cold from the arc, shooting 4-for-21, and just kept going to that dry well too many times. Syracuse plays good defense, but 58 points shouldn't happen. In their last nine games Marquette has been 5-4, with only one game played against a team in this week's BP65. Marquette's next game? At UConn. One of those two teams is going to get a chance to rebound. The loser is going to find itself buried in the Big East standings.

Missouri State 95, Wichita State 87
A huge game for both teams, in a game that neither could afford to lose. For one thing, who ever thought they'd see a 95-87 game in the Missouri Valley? Defense is always good in the Valley, but the shooting was unreal in this game. If Missouri State keeps shooting 11-for-19 from behind the arc, they are going to be unstoppable. With this win, the Bears move back into the upper echelon of the conference, with Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois. Creighton is improving quickly, and could easily win the conference as well. Meanwhile, Wichita State is now 1-3 and buried in 8th place. The Shockers head to Indiana State before a very winnable home game against Evansville. They really need to win both those games, and follow it up with a win over Creighton at home, if they want any chance of winning the regular season crown.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

W-9 BP65

What a wild evening yesterday in college basketball. The biggest story, in my opinion, is the wide-open Pac-10. With UCLA and Arizona going down on the same day there is now a gigantic tie at 3-1. A real mess that I'll go through later this week. For now, the new BP65:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Arizona
2. LSU
2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke
3. Alabama
3. Texas A&M

4. Oklahoma State
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
4. Marquette
4. Oregon

5. UConn
5. Tennessee
5. Texas
5. Washington

6. Kentucky
6. NEVADA (WAC)
6. Maryland
6. AIR FORCE (MWC)

7. Michigan State
7. California
7. Illinois
7. Georgetown

8. Clemson
8. USC
8. Gonzaga
8. West Virginia

9. WICHITA ST (MVC)
9. Notre Dame
9. Boston College
9. Northern Iowa

10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Missouri State
10. Washington State
10. Southern Illinois

11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. Missouri
11. San Diego State
11. Virginia

12. Texas Tech
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Villanova
12. Louisville

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

15. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Looking Forward to Today's Action

The first big Saturday of the new year, and you've got to be excited. Games are on all over the place, and it's tough to figure out what to watch. A few games going on now or later this afternoon, with some thoughts:


Notre Dame at Georgetown (on ESPN plus now - if you live in the northeast or have satellite tv you're probably getting it now on MSG): Right now, Georgetown is just dominating. Their defense has played well, but Notre Dame also can't hit a thing. For Notre Dame, a win here would mean a lot of legitimacy for a team fairly new to the Top 25. For Georgetown, a win like this is exactly the kind of win they need all year. The kind of win that is a resume builder, but eminently winnable. They had to go in feeling they should win. Anything is possible, but right now Notre Dame has dug themselves quite a hole. It's hard to overcome double-digit second-half deficits.

Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa (ESPNU, 1pm): A huge battle for supremacy in the Missouri Valley. Both teams are 3-0, and the winner will open up a very important lead in the standings. Northern Iowa is looking like a likely Tournament team, and is mostly worried about seeding. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, is right on the bubble. A win here would most likely move them back into the BP65 tomorrow.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (ESPN Plus, 1pm): Almost a must-win game for both teams. Both are squarely on the bubble and need good performances in the Big 12. This is the conference opener for both teams, and an important harbinger if nothing else.

Ohio State at Illinois (ESPN, 2pm): If Ohio State wants a #1 seed they need to win the Big 10. If they get a split from Wisconsin then every other game will be huge. They just need to win every game. And it probably won't get any harder than a game at Illinois. Wisconsin gets their shot at Illinois two Saturdays from now. And, of course, Illinois is a lot more than a spoiler. They might be the third best team in the Big 10, and they have a shot at a pretty good seed in March.

UCLA at Oregon (2pm): Sooner or later, people are going to make a big deal out of the fact that UCLA is undefeated. Of course, if they're going to lose a game, a trip to 17th ranked Oregon is a very likely possibility. If, in fact, UCLA loses this one they will still be a #1 seed in tomorrow's BP65. They just won't be #1 in the nation anymore. Remember, there's a difference between being the best #1 seed and the worst #1 seed. You get an easier 3rd round opponent.

Friday, January 05, 2007

New Years Update, Part II

Miami 72, UMass 71
A tough loss for the at-large hopes of the Minutemen. They've showed a remarkable amount of improvement this year under young coach Travis Ford, but they just might not have enough to get beyond the NIT this year. Miami isn't exactly a pushover, so this isn't a bad loss. It's just a missed opportunity to rack up a win over a quality opponent that was outplayed. UMass outrebounded the Canes 31-23, and blocked an amazing 11 shots. Yet after all that, Miami still shot over 50% from the field, and 60% from behind the arc. It's hard to beat a team that shoots like that. Atlantic 10 play starts tomorrow for the Minutemen, and they need to get off to a good start. They need to go atleast 12-4 to think about an at-large bid to the Tournament.

Missouri State 86, Bradley 78

A good job by the Bears getting back to their winning ways. Bradley is a good team, and it's a solid win to set the tone for the rest of the Missouri Valley season. Missouri State's big guys absolutely ran Bradley off the floor, winning the rebounding battle by a remarkable 43-21. They're going to need that kind of strength inside to beat a team like Wichita State on Sunday. Missouri State does have that great win over Wisconsin on a neutral floor, but other than that they don't have any good out-of-conference wins. They don't have any real awful losses, but it's still not a water-tight resume. They need a solid conference season for a Tournament bid. This weekend's game against Wichita State will be huge for conference position, so watch out for it.

#18 Clemson 68, Florida St. 66

As I discussed earlier, this was exactly the game that Clemson needed to win to start off the ACC season. Amazingly enough, this is Clemson's best win of the year. So, they managed to make a 14-0 season even better. The fact is that we know Clemson isn't good enough to run through the ACC. They're going to lose some games. The key now will be winning the games they're supposed to win and building the best resume they can. At this point I'd say Clemson is pretty much a lock if they can go 10-6 in the ACC.

Minnesota 65, Purdue 59

A bad loss for Purdue. Minnesota has played awful this year, and they're supposed to be the easy game in the Big 10 schedule. Good teams don't come out and blow games like this. Purdue even outplayed the Gophers, but must have felt like they were shooting at a rim that was just a bit too small. Shooting 36% from the field, including 3-17 from 3-point land, is going to make it tough to beat anyone. There's no question that Purdue is playing better than expectations, and that they should feel good about this season, but they just don't seem good enough to pull off those good wins. They fell just short against Georgia Tech and Butler, their best win a 2-pointer over Virginia in the ACC/Big 10 challenge. If they want any hope of building a resume, they need some wins soon. Over the next two weeks the Boilermakers have home games against Michigan and Illinois. A win in both of those games (assuming no more mis-steps, like a loss at home against Penn State tomorrow) would put Purdue back on the right track. They need to take these opportunities when they come. It will be a lot tougher to get those Big 10 wins at Indiana and Wisconsin.

Providence 74, #21 Marquette 59
A meaningful game for both of these teams. For Marquette, the season has really taken a slide since the early season victories over Texas Tech and Duke. They might fall back out of the Top 25 altogether. For their sake, you have to hope this was a look-ahead game, because their schedule gets very tough very quick. Their next five games are against Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia, Louisville & Pitt. No easy wins there. Of course, on the other hand, you can view that as a great chance to get some resume-building wins. Is the glass half full or half empty? As for Providence, does this win shoot them into at-large discussions? They have a good overall record (11-3), but no real great out-of-conference wins, and that 30 point loss to Florida State sticks out like a sore thumb. I'd have to say that while their out-of-conference resume isn't going to get them into the Tournament, it won't keep them out either. If they keep winning Big East games over the likes of Marquette, they could possible earn a bid that way. But I'd like to see this happen some more often before I take them too seriously. For example, they could easily lose at home to Seton Hall tomorrow and all of this will be moot.

Wichita State 84, Bradley 63
I talked about this game yesterday. As I said they would, they came out to play and creamed Bradley. Wichita State dominated pretty much every aspect of the game, shooting a remarkable 62% (including 58% from behind the arc) and almost doubling Bradley in rebounds. They knew that while you can blow off a loss or two, an 0-3 start in the Valley would have been almost too tough to overcome. This win leads into a very important game at Missouri State. They follow that one up with a few easier conference games, but a loss to Missouri State would give the Shockers three losses, and would firmly knock them out of the "favorite" position in conference. On the other hand, a win would cement them as the best team, and we could ignore the losses as an unfortunate cold streak. Remember, the Valley is good, but it's not good enough that any team can go 9-7 in conference and expect to get into the Tournament. You can't lose 3 games before January 10th and expect an easy road.

#7 Arizona 96, #20 Washington 87

I could talk about how great Arizona has played lately, but everyone already knows that. I'd say Arizona is looking at no worse than a #2 seed right now, with a real good shot at the #1 if they can beat UCLA. But what I'd rather talk about is Washington, a team that got off to a great start but has really struggled as of late. They had a solid victory over Northern Iowa, the romp over LSU and the tough loss at Gonzaga (where almost nobody wins). But then they go and start off the Pac-10 season with an unfortunately tough first three games (at USC, at UCLA and at home vs. Arizona). None of those games are bad losses, but added together you question the ability of this team to win the big game without Brandon Roy. In fact, it makes you even question their earlier wins. Was that LSU performance, like many have suggested, only the product of the game being the last game of a long road trip? With the re-emergence of Oregon, Washington State and USC as Pac-10 powers this season, Washington is going to find it a lot harder to move back up the standings than they did moving down them. They have some winnable games coming up against Arizona State and Stanford, followed by potential resume-building games at California and Washington State. Washington really needs atleast one of the latter two, plus the former two games as well. Otherwise the January 25th game against Oregon State turns into a must-win game, as Washington will risk falling out of the Tournament altogether.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

New Years Update

Working my way back after a few post-less days:

South Florida 75, Wake Forest 67
Not that anyone is considering South Florida a serious Tournament team (or even Big East Tournament team), but how about this win for the young Bulls? They've shown remarkable improvement this year, their second in the Big East. Clearly, just showing up in the Big East conference is bringing in talent that will allow them to compete. Last year they were the joke of the conference, but I would expect them to get several wins this year and maybe even get out of the cellar. Looking at their scouting reports, they actually haven't had great recruiting classes these last two years... but something is working because this is a team that never would have had a shot against Wake Forest last year.

Xavier 65, Illinois 59
A good win for a Xavier team looking to build its at-large resume. For the most part, Xavier has been winning the games they're supposed to win, but have struggled to get wins that they can brag about in March. Up until this point their only marginal resume win was against Villanova. I'd say that this win over Illinois is more impressive. Xavier heads into conference play with a good out-of-conference record, but they need to continue to win against their rivals. The Atlantic 10 is better than it's usually been in recent years, but it's still not that good. They need to go atleast 12-4 to have a legitimate at-large claim. They really need to go 14-2 or so to get a seed as high as I've been predicting in the BP65. They start off in a couple of days with a home game against Temple, which is the type of game they'll be playing a lot of. It's not a walkover, but if they show up and play hard and smart they'll win. They need to win it. Their first real test will probably be UMass on January 18th.

West Virginia 81, #11 UConn 71
An important game for both teams. For West Virginia, this probably takes them off the bubble for now. There were a lot of good reasons to think this team wouldn't be able to make it back to the Tournament after being decimated by graduations, but they have played excellent ball so far this year. They have some good resume-style wins, and continued play like this will make it easy to stick them in the Tournament at a halfway-decent seed. As for UConn, this is exactly what they didn't need. They went 11-0 out of conference by beating up on Eastern Connecticut School for the Blind and other similar basketball powerhouses. They kept moving up the Top 25 because this was UConn, they had a great recruiting class, and they looked good in their wins. Suddenly, the first good team they play and they get creamed? Makes you rethink UConn as a Big East power this year. So, is there a reason to dismiss this game from UConn's point of view? The only thing I can think of is that maybe this was just what you'd expect from a young team that hadn't played anyone tough. They're still playing November-style basketball while West Virginia's players were honed over a much tougher out-of-conference schedule. If this is the case we should see a quick improvement out of the Huskies. We should find out as soon as January 6th, when they go play LSU.

Creighton 77, Missouri State 74
Another good performance for a Creighton team that has just been all over the place this year. After a lot of preseason hype they've had some fairly awful performances (losses to Dayton, Fresno State and Hawaii by a combined 37 points), but have responded with some excellent wins as well. But the win over Xavier in early December is easily dwarfed by this one, which really sets a good tone for Creighton. It's important to get off to a good start in the Missouri Valley which is a conference, as we learned last year, where two games can mean the difference between 1st and 6th. Missouri State, on the other hand, is really entering bubble territory. They have some good wins, but not enough that they don't need a good finish in the Valley. Luckily for them, there are plenty of chances for marquee wins in this conference.

Washington State 58, USC 55
How about this Cougars team and Tony Bennett? They've played excellent ball this year that was mostly dismissed because of their fairly easy schedule. It was easy to ignore the win over Gonzaga as a fluke. Then, they missed a big opportunity when they lost to UCLA by 3. This time, however, they hung on for a huge win early in conference play. USC had been incredibly tough to beat at home, so the Cougars have proven that they have enough talent to win just about every game left on their schedule. They do need a real marquee win to strengthen their Tournament resume, because they just don't have the name brand that other schools have. They get a good opportunity in a couple days, with Arizona coming to town. A win there and no one can deny that this is a real Tournament team.

#18 Nevada 82, Gonzaga 74
Gonzaga has struggled mightily these past few weeks. losing games that they either should be winning or that they have a good chance to win (like this one). And they've put themselves in a spot that they really don't want to be. And that is, they really need to win every conference game. A loss or two in the WCC could knock Gonzaga right out of the Tournament altogether. They have a couple of good wins, but can a mid-major really get a bid with 8 or 9 losses? I suppose Gonzaga has the name brand to overcome a record that might doom others. But surely that wasn't Mark Few's plan to have a successful March this year. Josh Heytfelt is clearly not replacing Adam Morrison as well as Gonzaga had hoped.

Northern Iowa 63, #16 Wichita State 59
A very good win for a Northern Iowa team still cementing its spot in the 65 team draw. They know that they don't have the out-of-conference resume of a team like Wichita State or Missouri State, so they really need a good finish in the Valley. Like Creighton, they really need a second place finish or better to feel comfortable about where they are. As for Wichita State, what is going on with them? I correctly predicted that they wouldn't continue their ridiculous play from November, but they've really had an atrocious December. Since the December 2nd win over Syracuse they haven't looked like a Tournament team at all. People littered this blog with puerile insults for my suggesting that this team would only get a #6 seed. Well, right now they're playing themselves out of the Tournament altogether. Of course, I don't expect that to happen. This team has too much talent to keep losing for too long. They're just in a rut like any team goes through from time to time (see: Gonzaga, above). It's just that the margin-of-error is smaller for teams outside the BCS, so we notice it more. I expect this team to turn it around tonight, with a win over Bradley. You know they're going to come out fired up, because a loss there would really crush their hopes of winning the Valley regular season crown.