Friday, December 31, 2010

Notre Dame A Big East Contender

#15 Notre Dame 69, #6 Georgetown 55
Everything was clicking for Notre Dame in this one, and they did a great job of grinding this game out against Georgetown. The Hoyas always play tough defense, and Notre Dame just kept hitting their shots, from the field and at the line. The Irish are now 12-1 with only that loss to Kentucky, and wins versus Wisconsin, Georgetown, Cal, Gonzaga and Georgia. Looking at the talent on the team I wouldn't think that they can win the Big East title, and I'm certainly not going to project them right now to finish higher than about fourth, but in no way can we count them out. Mike Brey has done a tremendous job finding the players that fit his system, and getting them to minimize their errors. As for Georgetown, this is not the way they wanted to start Big East play, but you can't be shocked at losing a game once in a while on the road against a quality opponent. Nobody is going to go undefeated in the Big East this season. The Hoyas have a relatively easy stretch coming up before playing Pitt at home on January 12th. They are still a serious contender for the Big East title.

#24 Wisconsin 68, #13 Minnesota 60
Wisconsin did well here to hold off a Minnesota team that the past few years has given them trouble because of their length and size, but it's a result that I expected. Wisconsin isn't too underrated at 24th, but Minnesota is way overrated at 13th. Like UConn, they won a couple of good games at an early season tropical tournament and then cruised through mostly cupcakes. They are a Tournament quality team, but more like the sixth or seventh best team in the Big Ten. The Gophers have to be ready to bounce right back, however, with a road game at Michigan State up on New Year's Eve. If they lose that one then they'll presumably beat Indiana at home, but then will head to Ohio State with a severe chance of falling to 1-3 in the Big Ten. Their schedule will ease up after that, but there is always a risk of a team falling apart mentally during a losing streak in conference. As for Wisconsin, they are always nearly unbeatable at home, and the difference between a good season and a bad season for them is winning on the road. They'll get a great test next, heading to Illinois on January 2nd. They also have a road game at Michigan State coming up on January 11th, but I actually think Illinois will be the tougher task for Wisconsin based on the personnel and the homecourt advantage.

Rhode Island 67, Boston College 65
This was a bizarre game from Boston College. They are usually so fundamentally sound, and inexpicably played terribly here. They committed 18 turnovers in this game and shot only 69% from the line. Even after this game they're still 10th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, and are hitting over 75% at the line, so this was just one of those days. Weird things happen to major conference teams over holiday break, getting ready for conference play. Rhode Island took advantage, getting themselves into a better position for an at-large run. Other than this win their best victory was over Drexel, and they have losses to UIC and Quinnipiac, so they've got ground to make up. They head to Florida on January 3rd, but even with a victory there they'll need to go at least 12-4 in Atlantic Ten play to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. Boston College has a bad loss to Yale, but they have wins over Texas A&M, Maryland, Cal, Providence and Indiana. They still have to head to South Carolina, and a win there will help them make the case to earn an at-large bid if they only go 10-6 or 9-7 in ACC play.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Pitt Takes Care Of UConn

#6 Pittsburgh 78, #4 UConn 63
It's rare to have a team as overrated in the polls this late in the season as UConn is. Coming into this game both Sagarin and Pomeroy rated them as close to the 40th best team in the nation, and I had them as a 7 seed in the Tournament. If you're wondering why a 10-0 team that beat Michigan State and Kentucky was only the 30-40th best team in the country, it's because you always should discount a little bit what happens at these early season tropical tournaments, and UConn won those two games on back-to-back days in Maui when Kemba Walker was playing out of his mind. Since returning to the contiguous 48 states UConn has had victories that include New Hampshire by 7 and Coppin State by 12. And people forget that in their first game in Maui they barely escaped Wichita State by 4 points. The key to beating UConn is making Kemba Walker inefficient and keeping them Alex Oriakhi from creating second chance points. Walker did get 31 points in this game, but it came inefficiently (10-for-27 from the field), and Pitt won the boards. UConn had four more offensive rebounds, but they had a lot of long offensive rebounds from their guards. In the paint, Pitt's frontline outmuscled UConn (Gary McGhee most of all). Pitt's offense could use improvement, but they shoot well from the mid-range, so they'll score against just about anybody. In my opinion, Pitt is the narrow favorite in the Big East, with Georgetown and Syracuse as their top contenders. They will head to Georgetown on January 9th, and get Syracuse at home on January 17th. UConn shouldn't have too much trouble with South Florida on Friday evening, but then they have a tough game at Notre Dame on January 4th.

Richmond 69, Seton Hall 61
The bad news continues to roll in for Seton Hall. Star Jeremy Hazell, already out because of a broken left wrist, was shot at home over Christmas weekend. The injuries aren't supposed to be too serious, but it's looking more and more like Hazell will try to just take a redshirt for the season. I do think Kevin Willard is a good coach who can recruit well, but obviously he's having trouble with this older squad handed to him in his first year at Seton Hall. He might need a year or two to clean house and bring in his guys - right now they just don't look at all like a Tournament team. Seton Hall is now 6-6, and will begin Big East play at home against USF, which is about as easy as it will get from here on out. They have to play Syracuse (twice), Georgetown, Pitt and Louisville (three of those five games will be on the road) before the month of January ends. As for Richmond, they have quietly plowed through their schedule, and are arguably the second best team in the Atlantic Ten with wins over Purdue and Seton Hall. They have two mediocre losses (Iona and Georgia Tech), but it's possible that both of those will turn into RPI Top 100 losses, which will really help their at-large chances. They play at home tomorrow against Wake Forest, where they should be heavily favored and would be very damaged with an upset loss. They open A-10 play against Charlotte on January 5th.

Penn State 69, Indiana 60
Indiana's season started strong - they actually looked like a bubble team for a while. But things have fallen apart quickly with three consecutive losses to Northern Iowa, Colorado and Penn State. To not take care of business at home against the worst team (in my opinion) in the Big Ten after those two bad losses is really bad. The problem for Indiana all season has been defense, particularly in the paint where they're small. Tom Crean historically likes to go guard heavy and hasn't ever really focused much on big men, but his Indiana teams have been even worse in this regard than his Marquette teams. Indiana's entire frontcourt (starters plus bench) combined to score 5 points and had 9 rebounds in this game. I just don't see how Indiana is going to guard the elite frontcourt players that all of the top six Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin) bring to the table. Indiana is going to need to get to at least 11-7 in Big Ten play to make the Tournament, and they are going to have to recover quickly with Ohio State next (Friday evening), then road games at Minnesota (January 4th) and Northwestern (January 9th). They also head to Wisconsin and Michigan State before January ends.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Florida State Bounces Back, Beats Baylor

I apologize again for being a little bit behind on blogging. I've been traveling a lot, and won't be home again until soon after New Year's. Here are the last recaps from games on Christmas and before Christmas:

Florida State 68, #15 Baylor 61
This is always the most important game of an eight-team early season tournament - the third place game. The loser of this game is going to go home with two losses, and it's usually a good team that really can't afford consecutive losses. In this case, that loser was Baylor. This was always going to be a fun game because these teams are mirror images - both are extremely long and athletic, outstanding defensively, and good rebounders. With that in mind, I was actually surprised to see how few offensive rebounds (18 combined) and blocks (6 combined) there were. But both of these teams are flawed offensively, which meant that the winner would be whicever team got the ball into the paint. Quincy Acy did do well for Baylor (16 points on 6-for-16 shooting), but none of the Baylor post players did anything offensively. FSU on the other hand got Derwin Kitchen going along with star Chris Singleton (both reached 15+ points). They will likely be without Xavier Gibson until mid-February, so it was nice to collect a quality out-of-conference win before heading back into ACC play (they played and beat Clemson in their ACC opener a few weeks ago). They still have to play Auburn before playing at Virginia Tech on January 8th, but Auburn has been so putrid this season that it would take a shockingly poor performance for FSU to lose. As for Baylor, don't look now but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 106th in the nation. Remembering that it's extremely rare for a team with an ELO_CHESS worse than 50 to make the Tournament, that's shocking. Of course, their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 26th and their Pomeroy rating is 15th, so I wouldn't panic and put Baylor on the bubble. But they need to start winning basketball games. Their first big test in Big 12 play will be January 15th at home against Kansas.

Colorado State 63, Southern Miss 58
Colorado State appears to have clearly claimed the mantle as the fifth best team in the Mountain West with this well-played victory. Travis Franklin has emerged as a star this season, and what I like about him is that he's saved his best performances for the best opponents. A day after scoring 21 points against Ole Miss he had 25 points here, and earlier this season he shot 7-for-11 from the field at in-state rival Colorado. Colorado State now has their RPI up to 86th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 67th. If they could somehow get to something like 11-5 in the Mountain West, they might actually be a real bubble team. They open conference play January 4th against Wyoming. This was a letdown game for Southern Miss - their final quality opponent before conference play after a nice run where they beat Cal and Saint Louis. Southern Miss has an uphill battle to the bubble, but they should be considered a contender to win Conference USA outright. Memphis has shown a lot of flaws, and there's no question that UCF or Southern Miss can knock them off.

Butler 84, Washington State 66
Everything was clicking here for Butler, and they had a Merry Christmas, collecting another quality win as they get ready to begin Horizon League play on Saturday. Shelvin Mack and Zach Hahn shot the lights out (12-for-22 overall, 6-for-12 behind the arc), but the real highlight was Andrew Smith, who had 6 boards and shot 5-for-5 from the field. Brad Stevens is trying to go big with Smith and Matt Howard in at the same time, and even if he wasn't there's an important need at Butler for a second quality big because Howard came out of the womb in foul trouble (5.5 fouls committed per 40 minutes so far this season). After a really slow start to the season, Butler felt the urgency and has responded with four consecutive good wins (Stanford, Utah, Florida State, Washington State). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has flown all the way up to 42nd, meaning that a good record in Horizon League play (15-3 or better) should assure them an at-large Tournament bid. Washington State won't be happy about losing a game, but they should be satisfied with what came out of their trip to Hawaii. They beat Mississippi State and Baylor, and established a legitimate claim to being the second best team in the Pac-10. They haven't lost to a bad team all season and are 10-2, and both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as one of the 30 best teams in the nation. They should make the Tournament with an 11-7 or better Pac-10 record.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

W-11 BP68

I hope you all had a great holiday weekend with your family. There were a couple of games that happened over the past couple of days that I want to talk about, but that will wait another day or so. We're in a little lull in the schedule with kids away from school after finals. There is one decent game Sunday night (Seton Hall vs Richmond) and then a few big intra-conference games on Monday (UConn vs Georgetown the highlight), but the intra-conference schedule won't really get going for the BCS conferences until Tuesday.

In the meanwhile, here's how I see things ending up:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. Texas
2. Georgetown
2. Michigan State
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)

3. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
3. Syracuse
3. Illinois
3. BYU (MWC)

4. Tennessee
4. Baylor
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
4. Villanova

5. San Diego State
5. Kansas State
5. Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M

6. North Carolina
6. UNLV
6. Purdue
6. Missouri

7. Louisville
7. Florida
7. UConn
7. Vanderbilt

8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. West Virginia
8. Maryland
8. Notre Dame

9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. New Mexico
9. UTAH STATE (WAC)
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)

10. Washington State
10. Arizona
10. Oklahoma State
10. Florida State

11. Minnesota
11. Marquette
11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Boston College

12. Northwestern
12. Richmond
12. Saint Mary's
12. Virginia Tech
12. Central Florida
12. Xavier

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Miami (Fl), Cincinnati, St. John's, Michigan, Iowa State, Southern Miss, Missouri State, California, Georgia

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Dayton, Rhode Island, Providence, Seton Hall, Indiana, Nebraska, Drexel, George Mason, UAB, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Arizona State, UCLA, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Duquesne, La Salle, UMass, Saint Louis, Rutgers, South Florida, Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma, VCU, Marshall, UTEP, Tulsa, Creighton, Air Force, TCU, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Boise State

Friday, December 24, 2010

Renardo Sidney Is Done

I've been making jokes about how much of a mess the Renardo Sidney situation has gotten at Mississippi State. Two days ago I said that "I don't see how Mississippi State fans can count on anything from him for the rest of the season - any positive play and/or attitude improvement has to be seen as a luxury at this point." Well, they're not likely going to get much of that luxury.

Just a few days ater Sidney was suspended for a game for a fight in practice, Sidney got into a brawl in the stands in Hawaii in front of ESPN's cameras and the entire world. Coaches can paper over fights in practices by hiding them from the media, but there's no way to hide what Sidney did on cameras in front of everybody. And how stupid does that kid have to be to do that?

Even if you personally root against Mississippi State, this should make you very sad. To see a kid with so much raw talent throw it away with his immaturity and stupidity...

Butler Beats FSU, Continues To Build Their Resume

Butler 67, Florida State 64
Butler got off to an awful start to this season, and it's tough for a team in a conference like the Horizon to recover from that. There just won't be any quality wins available in conference play. But they're playing better now, and are trying to rebuild their resume. This is a quality win, and they'll get a chance for another quality win on Christmas against Washington State. They probably will need that one, plus a near-undefeated record in conference play to earn an at-large bid should they get upset in the Horizon League tournament. A bright spot for them this game was Chase Stigall, who had his first career double-digit scoring game with 3-for-5 shooting behind the arc. He is beginning to provide a nice scoring spark off of the bench. For Florida State, the biggest worry from this game isn't the loss, but the injury to Xavier Gibson. At this point I have no idea how long he'll be out (if he'll miss any time at all), but it looked to me like a potentially bad knee injury. His length and athleticism is a big part of FSU's defense, which I think is the best in the nation. Their offense isn't good enough for them to be able to afford to lose him for any significant length of time. There isn't much time for recovery, with a game against Baylor on Saturday, followed by road games at Auburn and Virginia Tech, and then a game against Duke on January 12th.

Northern Iowa 66, New Mexico 60
With so many key players missing from last season, Northern Iowa needed some new young players to step up this season. They got that here, particularly from sophomore Anthony James, who led all players with 23 points. The team as a whole was raining threes, which helped them overcome New Mexico's advantage in the paint. Northern Iowa has those questionable losses against UW-Milwaukee and Iowa earlier this season, but they sure have looked good the past couple of weeks, and they could still get themselves on the bubble if they can finish 14-4 or better in Missouri Valley play. This is only New Mexico's second loss of the season, but they've still been disappointing - they've played a soft schedule and have struggled more than expected with it. They still have to play at Texas Tech and at Dayton before beginning Mountain West play, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose one of those games. The Mountain West still has a Big Four at the top that is likely to all make the NCAA Tournament, but in my opinion New Mexico is the clear worst of those four teams so far. I see the conference title coming down to BYU, UNLV and San Diego State.

Colorado State 68, Mississippi 61
When a team plays as dumb as Ole Miss did in this game, they deserve to lose. The physical and athletic advantage they had in the paint was tremendous, so naturally they chose to sit back and launch three-pointers, even as they missed a remarkable 16 in a row at one point. They took 68 shots in this game, and 25 of those came behind the arc, and they only earned 11 free throw attempts. Chris Warren in particular should know better - he's been around long enough to know that he can't shoot 1-for-11 behind the arc in a game. He was air-balling his threes and it didn't stop him from launching more. Ole Miss continues the trend of bad losses for SEC West teams. They fall to a decent 8-3, but their only win against a likely RPI Top 100 team was against Southern Miss, and this will likely be an RPI 100+ loss. They have two cupcakes and then will play at SMU before beginning SEC play at Florida on January 8th. It continues to look more and more like the SEC West will again fail to produce an NCAA Tournament teams. Colorado State moves to 7-3, but this is by far their best win, and they have bad losses to Sam Houston State and Colorado. They might be the fifth best team in the Mountain West, but are nowhere near the Big Four atop the conference.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Georgetown Thumps Memphis

#9 Georgetown 86, #17 Memphis 69
I was surprised to see Wesley Witherspoon back for Memphis, only two weeks after we were all told he would be out for five weeks. But even if Witherspoon was playing at 100% of his ability, the gulf between Georgetown and Memphis was just too massive in this game. Memphis still hasn't developed any kind of half court offense, and they struggle to rebound as well. After two straight very narrow wins over poor teams (an overtime victory over Austin Peay and a five point victory over Texas A&M-CC), Memphis was clearly overrated at 17th in the nation. Their best win on the season is still that narrow four pointer over the University of Miami back in mid-November, and they are a thoroughly unimpressive 1-2 against the RPI Top 100. They will play at Tennessee on January 5th, and will play Gonzaga on February 5th. They're the favorites to win Conference USA, but they're not as good as most people think they are. Georgetown, meanwhile, is off to begin Big East play on December 29th at Notre Dame. They definitely played well enough out-of-conference (wins over Missouri, Memphis and Old Dominion, and only a loss at Temple) to earn a 1 seed in the Tournament if they can win the Big East. Mark on your calendar a January 12th home game for Georgetown against Pitt.

Colorado 78, Indiana 69
Indiana had a tough narrow loss yesterday against Northern Iowa, and I said that if Indiana really is good enough to make it onto the bubble this season that they should easily take care of business against a mediocre Colorado team. I guess they're not that good yet. To be fair, the difference in this game was really free throw shooting (Colorado his 27-for-31, Indiana hit 16-for-25), and Indiana did nearly come back from a large deficit with an aggressive press that Colorado really struggled with. But as a whole, Indiana's players just really haven't progressed this year like I thought they would. They have a blue chip recruiting class coming in next year, but even that might not be enough for them to get back to the Tournament right away considering where they are currently. Indiana is 9-4, but they still have no wins over RPI Top 100 teams, and this is a bad loss. If they can't bounce back in their Big Ten opener, on December 27th at home against Penn State, this season could really begin to tailspin. Big Ten games don't get any easier this season than at home against Penn State. Colorado moves to 8-4, but this is likely their best win and they do have a loss to San Francisco. They have only three cupcakes remaining out-of-conference, so they should be 11-4 when they open Big 12 play against Missouri on January 8th.

#23 BYU 89, UTEP 68
When a BYU player not named Jimmer Fredette shoots 6-for-9 behind the arc, you know it's going to be a long day for their opponent. Tonight it was Jackson Emery putting on that performance (Jimmer added 25 points of his own). UTEP did jump out to an early 9-0 lead, but this game was over early in the second half. BYU doesn't have any really big time wins yet, but they've got a bunch of good wins and they're 5-1 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is actually currently 5th in the nation. BYU probably isn't the fifth best team in the nation, but they are very good and could be in line for something like a 3 or a 4 seed in the Tournament if they win the Mountain West. They will get an early start on that championship race when they open MWC play on January 5th at UNLV. UTEP is now 9-3, but it's about as soft as a 9-3 record can be. The closest thing they have to a quality win was over Texas Tech, and they've lost to Pacific and Georgia Tech. They'll have to go at least 12-4 in Conference USA play to get onto the bubble.

Pac-10 POY = Klay Thompson?

Washington State 77, #15 Baylor 71
Klay Thompson has been a great player for Washington State since last season, but never was his importance more on display than in this game. Washington State had an 18 point lead with 13 minutes remaining in the game when Thompson picked up his fourth foul and headed to the bench. Thompson spent nearly the next six minutes on the bench, during which Baylor went on a 22-3 run to take the lead back. But Thompson was a key down the stretch, including a killer three point with just a shade over a minute to go. He finished with only 20 points, but it came on 5-for-8 shooting, including 5-for-6 behind the arc. At this early stage the Pac-10 Player of the Year race looks wide open - certainly Klay Thompson will deserve consideration? As for Baylor, LaceDarius Dunn has to learn to pass the ball. He's the best player on the team, but you just can't be a team's primary ballhandler and then shoot 3-for-15 behind the arc with only 1 assist. Baylor dominated the boards (as they do against almost everybody) with an 18-to-5 offensive rebounding differential, but the difference in play between Klay Thompson and LaceDarius Dunn was dramatic. Washington State began the season a very questionable 9-1, eating up cupcake after cupcake and losing to the only quality team they played (Kansas State). But over the past two days in Hawaii they have thumped Mississippi State by 26 points and knocked off Baylor. They have one more game to play in Hawaii, and it will be late on Christmas night against either Florida State or Butler. Right now they have a Tournament resume, but the question will be whether they can continue this play in the Pac-10, where opponents will be more familiar with trying to stop Klay Thompson, and where there won't be a huge margin of error because of how poorly the conference is rated. As for Baylor, they will lick their wounds and will have a chance to bounce back on Christmas against either Florida State or Butler. In my opinion, Kansas has separated themselves as the best team in the Big 12, and Texas is a close second. After that, Baylor is in a battle with Kansas State and Missouri for the position of third best team. All three teams have clear and specific flaws, and it will be interesting to see which teams match up best against the others.

Gonzaga 64, Xavier 54
Gonzaga appears to be finally getting into a good groove. They're finding balance offensively by working the ball through Robert Sacre more. But more importantly their defense has gotten much better. It was absolutely putrid during their 4-5 start to the season, but it's improved dramatically over the past couple of weeks. Their effective field goal percentage allowed has slipped under 50%, and their Pomeroy adjusted defensive efficiency ranking has fallen from around 120th to around 70th. With back-to-back wins over Baylor and Xavier they have momentum heading into a home game against Oklahoma State on New Year's Eve. They also will play Memphis in February. If they can win both of those games and finish at least 12-2 in WCC play, they should be safe for an at-large bid. The fact that they still have so much work to do just to secure a Tournament bid, even after these strong back-to-back wins, emphasizes just how poor the start to Gonzaga's season was. As for Xavier, they fall to 7-3, but have wins over Butler, Wake Forest, Iowa and Seton Hall to go with only one bad loss (Miami of Ohio). They will play Florida on December 31st and will head to Cincinnati on January 6th. They could really use a win in both of those games because the A-10 isn't as strong as it was last season and there won't be as many quality wins available.

Southern Miss 74, Saint Louis 67
I know that Saint Louis still has hopes of getting both Kwamain Mitchell and Willie Reed back in January, and they had a strong performance in the Atlantic Ten last season after a disappointing out-of-conference performance, but they sure have dug themselves quite a hole this season. Of course, without Michell & Reed this team is very young and small, and building for the future is a priority for Rick Majerus. I was very impressed with his freshman guard duo of Jordair Jett and Mike McCall (a combined 28 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in this game), both of whom are very strong and physical for their young ages. For Southern Miss, this is a quality win, and it was impressive for them to do it with a terrible day from their star, Gary Flowers (only 10 points and 6 rebounds - the 10 points are by far the fewest points he's scored in a game this season). Saint Louis falls to 5-6, and will need to win a bunch of games in a row in A-10 play to get back into any kind of bubble discussions. Southern Miss, meanwhile, moves to 9-1 with wins over Cal, USF and Saint Louis, and only a loss at Ole Miss. Their resume is good, but both Sagarin and Pomeroy think that they're closer to being the 60th best team in the nation - so both ratings systems expect them to regress to the mean a little bit as the season goes along. Certainly I need to see more before I will put them into the BP68.

Missouri's 8-Point Possession Beats Illinois

#10 Missouri 75, #21 Illinois 64
Technically Missouri only had a six point possession, but it effectively turned into an eight point possession. What happened was that Illinois scored to cut the deficit to one point with a little over 40 seconds to go. Missouri pushed the ball down the court quickly to an open Laurence Bowers, who hit a layup and was fouled by Mike Tisdale. The refs called it an intentional foul, however, which meant that Bowers was able to take and make two free throws and the team got possession under the basket - a possession that they scored on a backdoor layup. Technically the possession ended then, but Bruce Weber was screaming at the refs on their way back to the other side of the floor and they T'd him up, which meant two more made free throws. Basically eight points on one possession, turning a 1 point lead into a 9 point lead with half a minute to go. A killer, and another disappointing close loss for Illinois. Illinois just doesn't really have a flow offensively down the stretch of games. What they should be doing is letting Demetri McCamey run the offense, and they should be pushing the ball into the paint with Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis in there. Instead, the team barely was able to get the ball to either player, even though Tisdale is one of the most skilled big men in the Big Ten and Davis looked the best he has all season (17 points on 7-for-13 shooting, with 8 rebounds). To me it just seemed like every possession was in control of a different Illinois guard - and while Illinois does have four very good guards, the lack of a consistent flow makes it difficult for them to get clutch baskets when they need them. Illinois is still a good team, of course. They're a Tournament team, and something like the fourth or fifth best team in the Big Ten - but they have problems to clean up that teams with this many seniors and juniors don't usually have. The Illini open Big Ten play on Wednesday at Iowa, and then get Wisconsin at home, in an early test that could be the difference between a place or two in the final Big Ten standings. Missouri remains overrated, in my opinion, but I could see them finishing as high as third in the Big 12. They have a dangerous home game against Old Dominion on December 30th, and then open up Big 12 play at Colorado on January 8th.

#3 Kansas 78, California 63
This was a very chippy game for two teams that really don't have much history. A flagrant foul by Marcus Morris (which got him ejected from the game) seemed to really fire up both of these teams, and it climaxed a few minutes later into what was basically a tag-team wrestling match in the paint. The fighting did seem to fire up Cal for a little while, but in the end the talent gulf was too great. Josh Selby continues to shoot the lights out (3-for-4 behind the arc), and Markieff Morris (21 points, 10 rebounds) stepped up in the absence of his brother. For as long as Duke is without Kyrie Irving, I do think that Kansas is the most complete team in the country. They do have flaws (they're sloppy offensively at times, and can struggle to score if their shots aren't falling), but they have players that can fill any role against any team. They have no clear weakness that can be exploited. California falls to 6-5, but it's fair to point out that all five losses have come to likely RPI Top 100 teams. They also have wins over Iowa State, New Mexico and Temple. They'll get credit on Selection Sunday for playing a tough schedule, but they didn't have quite enough wins and will have an uphill battle heading into the Pac-10 regular season. In a weak Pac-10 they will need to go at least 11-7 to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.

Northern Iowa 67, Indiana 61
The difference in this game was simple: outside shooting. The teams had the same number of turnovers and blocks, and Indiana had one more steal while UNI had one more assist. UNI had two more offensive rebounds (meaning two extra possessions), but the difference was UNI's 39% three-point shooting, compared to Indiana's 15% outside shooting. This is kind of surprising since Indiana has actually been a strong three-point shooting team this season (38.2%) while UNI has been poor (30.3%). It's not clear yet whether this will be a "bad" loss for Indiana or not, because UNI will likely be right on the border of being an RPI Top 100 team or not (their RPI is currently 66th, but Pomeroy has them as the 85th best team, and Sagarin has them 103rd). But even if it is, it will surprisingly be the first bad loss for Indiana all season. Their other two losses came against Kentucky and Boston College. An important test as far as I am concerned will be tonight against Colorado. I think Indiana is improved enough that they'll actually get onto the edge of the Tournament bubble in February (I think they're at least one more year from getting back into the Tournament, however). But if they're that improved, they should take care of business against a bad Colorado team. They open Big Ten play on December 27th at home against Penn State. I think Penn State is the worst team in the Big Ten, so if Indiana is going to have a decent Big Ten season they really have to start off with a win in what will likely be their easiest game from there on out. As for UNI, as you could probably guess from the computer numbers I threw out earlier that they're a decent team, although a very unlikely Tournament team. They're 8-3 with wins over Iowa State, Indiana and TCU, but they've got a very questionable loss at UW-Milwaukee. The Missouri Valley Conference is most likely going to be a one-bid league, and even if they do get an at-large team it's most likely to be Wichita State, but UNI can get themselves into the discussion if they can beat New Mexico tonight and then finish with a very strong Missouri Valley record (14-4 or better).

Texas Pummels Michigan State In East Lansing

#22 Texas 67, #12 Michigan State 55
This game was never particularly close. Michigan State's offense has been poor all season, but they were putrid here. They dribble way too long, and too much of their offense consists of various players trying to take their men one-on-one. Michigan State's post players are not good offensive creators, so if the Michigan State guards aren't creating open shots for them they're not going to score much. To be fair, this Michigan State team is still good. They're still one of the 25 best teams in the nation and they're still a contender for the Big Ten title. But so many players just seem to have regressed since last year that even a season like this seems very disappointing. The next game for the Spartans is their Big Ten opener, on December 31st against Minnesota. As for Texas, they got really good games from Tristan Thompson and Jordan Hamilton. Hamilton has been an explosive scorer all season long, and he led all players in this game with 21 points on 9-for-19 shooting. Thompson did his damage defensively and on the boards (15 rebounds, 6 of them on offense), and is really starting to find his role on this team. Texas has one more interesting game before beginning Big 12 play and it will be on January 8th against UConn. I think UConn is way overrated, and both Sagarin and Pomeroy's ratings agree (both have UConn as approximately the 40th best team in the country), so I think Texas should win that game. A win then will give them good momentum as they head into their Big 12 opener at Texas Tech on January 11th.

Dayton 69, Seton Hall 65
This season continues to disintegrate for Seton Hall. Earlier this week they found out that the very talented sophomore big man Ferrakhon Hall would be transfering out, and now they follow that up with another disappointing loss. Without Ferrakohn Hall, Seton Hall is thin in the paint, and Dayton smartly attacked them at their weak point. After they got Jeff Robinson and Herb Pope in foul trouble (the two combined for 50 minutes played), Dayton was able to dominate the paint, and it allowed them to overcome a double-digit second half deficit. Seton Hall is now 6-5 with no quality wins, and are at a real risk of falling below .500 with only a game against Richmond before beginning Big East play. Even if they beat Richmond they will have to go a minimum of 11-7 in Big East play to make the Tournament. I don't see that as realistic at this point. Dayton, meanwhile, is quietly 10-3 with wins over Ole Miss and Seton Hall, and only one bad loss (East Tennessee State). They have two key home games ahead (George Mason and New Mexico) that they really need to win if they're going to be in a good position before beginnning Atlantic Ten play.

Cleveland State 69, South Florida 62
To say that Cleveland State's backcourt dominated the South Florida backcourt would be an understatement. Cleveland State had two guards score over 20 points, and they forced 14 steals as a team. USF's three starting guards combined to score 17 points on 6-for-17 shooting with 7 assists and 9 turnovers. It's hard for me to think of another recent game with such divergent turnover numbers (24-to-4 advantage for Cleveland State). This win helps verify Cleveland State a little bit after that 12-0 start against 12 cupcakes, followed by the 11 point loss at West Virginia. I still think they're very unlikely to earn an at-large bid, but if they manage to go something like 13-3? They'd be in the discussion. USF, on the other hand, continues to fall into a tailspin without Dominique Jones (who I believe is currently playing in the D-League). They are 6-7 with four losses in their last five games, including losses to Florida Atlantic, James Madison and Kent State. I'll be shocked if they get their end-of-the-season record up to .500. They begin Big East play on December 28th at Seton Hall.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Kansas State Almost Upsets UNLV

UNLV 63, #11 Kansas State 59
I titled this post the way I did for a reason. I forget who was announcing this game, but they kept harping on two reasons for Kansas State losing this game: poor free throw shooting, and the fact that Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly were suspended. The reality is, Kansas State has many more problems than that. Their free throw shooting has been awful for the past couple of years - this year their offense as a whole has been bad. They are sloppy with the ball and they are completely dependent on outside shooting, which more often than not has not been good. Even though they've spent most of the season ranked in the Top Ten, both Sagarin & Pomeroy rated Kansas State as closer to the 25-30th best team in the nation before Pullen & Kelly were suspended. Even with a full roster I think UNLV is nearly equal in quality to Kansas State, and would have just made the Wildcats the narrow favorites in this game because of homecourt advantage. But with Pullen & Kelly gone? Their two best scorers? I thought this game was going to be a romp. And honestly, Kansas State played really well in this game. They dominated the boards and played very good defense on UNLV's shooters, who have the ability to get white hot behind the arc but only hit 2-for-13 in this game. And so Kansas State almost pulled the upset... but came up short. The good news for Kansas State is that Pullen's suspension is only three games, so he'll just miss two more games against cupcakes. But Kelly's suspension (last I heard) was still for an indetermined stretch, and he could end up missing some of the Big 12 regular season. I view Kansas and Texas as superior to even a full strength Kansas State squad, but Kansas State won't even have a chance if they're going without Kelly. UNLV moves to 11-2 with several quality wins (Wisconsin, Kansas State, Virginia Tech) and only that one inexplicable loss to UC-Santa Barbara. But the Selection Committee has proven over and over again that they'll overlook an awful loss if it's balanced with a bunch of quality wins. UNLV remains in a position to earn a 3-5 seed in the Tournament if they can win the Mountain West.

St. John's 85, Northwestern 69
Northwestern's soft schedule really bit them here. They are a very skilled team with the ball and the team is full of great shooters, but they just didn't have the same intensity that St. John's brought to the second half of this game. The Johnnies looked better in the second half than they have in any game all season. St. John's hit 65% on two-pointers for the game, and had assists on 71% of their made baskets - they were getting a lot of fast break points. And maybe this is the type of game that will finally wake this Johnnies team up after a really disappointing and sluggish start (losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure). And this performance comes just in time, with their Big East regular season scheduled to begin next Wednesday night at West Virginia. For Northwestern, the bright spot was John Shurna (28 points on 10-for-17 shooting). He was a very good shooter and scorer last season, but he was constantly getting his way to the basket off of the dribble in this game in a way I hadn't seen before. He's not the most athletic player, but he's so lanky and takes such weird angles that he's just really awkward to defend. This is still just Northwestern's first loss of the season, and we'll learn a lot more about them when they open Big Ten play, because they begin with a truly brutal stretch (at Purdue, vs Michigan State, at Illinois). I do think that this is the year that Northwestern will finally break through and make the Tournament, but they really need to win one of those three games to stay on track.

Washington State 83, Mississippi State 57
Mississippi State actually led this game by one point at the half, but they seemed to really wear out in the latter stages of this game. They've played a lot of games and done a lot of traveling lately, and I think it's catching up to them. Meanwhile, the Renardo Sidney Era continues to be a mess - he was suspended for this game for a confrontation he had at practice. At this point I don't see how Mississippi State fans can count on anything from him for the rest of the season - any positive play and/or attitude improvement has to be seen as a luxury at this point. Mississippi State falls to 7-4 on the season now, and with a couple of bad losses (East Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic) is nowhere near the bubble. With a couple more tough games ahead before they finally get Dee Bost back, Mississippi State could be playing itself out of the Tournament before we even turn to a new calendar year. For Washington State, the bright spot (other than Klay Thompson, of course) is Faisal Adams, who has given them a real offensive spark off the bench. The problem last season was that Thompson was the only player scoring, and the improved depth is why this team is so much better. Washington State overall is still something of a question mark, with zero big wins and zero bad losses. They'll get a chance to prove themselves tomorrow when they play Baylor. Regardless of their result in that game they will likely have a quality opponent in their final game at the Diamond Head Classic. They open Pac-10 play on a Southern California road trip at UCLA and at USC.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

USC Beats Tennessee Again

USC 65, #18 Tennessee 64
Coming off of consecutive upsets to Oakland and Charlotte, and facing a USC team that shocked them last season, you would have figured Tennessee would bounce back with a win. But as I said, whatever you think Tennessee is going to do, they consistently do the opposite. Normally a one-point win is a toss-up that doesn't mean much going forward, but USC actually deserved to win this game by more. They led almost the entire way and had a four point lead in the final minute that they just barely hung onto. The fact is that Jio Fontan has given USC a huge lift. The Fordham transfer has been a part of two games now: a two point loss to Kansas and a win over Tennessee. The problem for their at-large resume is that they put together some weak losses (Rider, Bradley, TCU, Nebraska) before Fontan was eligible. This win helps them get back closer to the bubble, but they still have an uphill battle ahead of them. As for Tennessee, there's no reason that this three game slide needs to end immediately. They play a dangerous Belmont team on Thursday, and also have to play Memphis and Charleston before beginning SEC play. I still really have no idea how good this Volunteers team is.

UAB 68, VCU 63
This game wasn't remotely as close as the final score. UAB had a double digit lead only six minutes into the game and got the lead up to 19 points midway through the second half before going on an extended cold streak. UAB had (by my calculation) ten more possessions, and it was only some hot VCU shooting that allowed them to make the final score close. This was a game that VCU really needed to keep their at-large hopes in a healthy condition. They're now 7-4 with only one decent win (UCLA). They'll likely have to go 15-3 or better in Colonial play to have a decent shot at an at-large bid. UAB, meanwhile, is quietly off to a strong start. They're 9-2 with only true road losses at Georgia and Arizona State. Unfortunately, they don't have a very good win. Unless they shock the world at Duke on January 5th they're going to have to win one of their two regular season games against Memphis.

Wichita State 82, Tulsa 79
What makes this win particularly impressive is that Tulsa was shooting the lights out. They hit 14-for-27 behind the arc. But Wichita State dominated the paint, with a 57% offensive rebounding percentage, 36 free throw attempts, and a 60% two point shooting percentage (compared to 33% on threes). Most impressively they completely shut down Tulsa's very talented interior combo of Steven Idlet and DJ Magley (a combined 7 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 10 fouls). Wichita State doesn't have a huge attention-grabbing win, but they have beaten Virginia, LSU and Tulsa, and have zero bad losses. They still have an uphill battle to an at-large bid, but they're my pick to win the Valley's automatic bid regardless. Tulsa got off to a fairly strong start this season themselves with wins over Missouri State and Stanford, but they've begun to tail off with four losses in their last five games, including losses to Princeton and Arkansas-Little Rock. It's hard to see any scenario that gets them back to the bubble now.

Upsets Continue: Jacksonville Over Florida

Jacksonville 71, #19 Florida 68, OT
I continue to talk about how many upsets we have this time of year. Elite teams are between the early season tournaments and the conference regular season, and they're more focused on exams and Christmas than they are about their lower tier opponents. But as much as I keep saying this, I continue to be shocked at just how bad the wave of upsets has been this year. Florida did physically dominate this game (an offensive rebounding percentage of 50%), but they were sloppy (17 turnovers) and couldn't hit a shot (35.6% from the field). Florida is still very much in a position to earn a high Tournament seed if they can win the SEC, and they were just two days off of a big win over Kansas State, but more likely they feel to me like a 5-7 seed team. To be fair, Jacksonville isn't as bad as people think they are. Jacksonville hasn't been relevant in the national college basketball scene in 40 years, but they did play in the NIT the past two seasons. They won the Atlantic Sun Conference outright in 2008-09, and they finished in a four-way tie atop the conference in 2009-10. I view Belmont as the favorite to take the conference this season, and I think Lipscomb is the most likely team to knock them off, but Jacksonville has to be a contender.

Arizona 72, NC State 62
I was impressed with Arizona's performance here. They were playing a true road game against an ACC team that has some blue chip raw talent, and their outside shots were not falling (4-for-16 behind the arc). So rather than continuing to jack up shots they took the ball to the basket, earning 30 free throws, which they hit at an 80% clip. Derrick Williams has been the offensive star for Arizona all season, but they got a nice game off the bench from Kevin Parrom (11 points on only 4 shots from the field - probably his best game in his short career at Arizona). The two big improvements for Arizona this year compared to last year are depth and maturity, and both were on display in this game. The Wildcats still aren't getting respect from the pollsters, but they're 10-2 with both losses coming to ranked teams. Both Sagarin & Pomeroy rate them as one of the 20 best teams in the nation. I don't think they're quite that good, but I certainly think they're a Tournament team. NC State, on the other hand, has not at all lived up to the preseason hype. They were overrated because of their highly rated freshman class - the reality is that only a handful of freshmen have a big impact on any given season, and unless you've got a Kyrie Irving or Jared Sullinger you're not going to be able to have a lot of success without a lot of production from returning players. NC State has improved over the past couple of weeks (CJ Leslie in particular), but they're still nowhere near a bubble team. At 6-4 without any quality wins the Wolfpack will likely have to go 10-6 in ACC play to make the Tournament.

Maine 74, Penn State 64
Speaking of upsets: another loss for a Penn State team that has really struggled this season. They're 7-4 with their best win coming over Duquesne, and this loss won't help either. And once again I don't blame Talor Battle, who continues to play great basketball (26 points on 7-for-13 shooting, along with 7 rebounds and only 2 turnovers). But he can't get any help at all from his teammates. In this game, all Nittany Lions players not named Talor Battle combined to shoot 19% on threes, 43% on twos and 56% at the line.... against Maine. Considering how frisky Iowa has been this season, Penn State really might be the worst team in the Big Ten. As for Maine, this is a nice win, but I don't see it leading to much. I still view the America East as a battle between Vermont and Boston University.

Monday, December 20, 2010

UCLA Upsets BYU

I apologize for falling a little bit behind on my game recaps. Here are a few left over from Saturday:

UCLA 86, #18 BYU 79
The UCLA players headed into this game talking about playing for John Woodon, who had passed away since the last time the team played in a Wooden Classic. They lived up to their promise, winning in dominant fashion over BYU. They got an assist from Jimmer Fredette, who had his worst game in a while (7 turnovers, 2-for-8 shooting behind the arc), but UCLA's frontline dominated the boards and they ended up with ten more shots from the field, and five more from the line. UCLA not only keeps themselves over .500 with this win, but it also represents their first quality win of the season. They do have a loss to Montana, though, and will have to go at least 11-7 in Pac-10 play to make the Tournament. BYU is just going to have to shake this loss off - there are always a lot of strange upsets that happen this time of the year, and BYU was coming off a dominant 22 point thumping of Arizona. They're 10-1 overall and remain among the three teams likely contending for the Mountain West title. BYU does have a deceptively difficult game tomorrow night at Weber State, and they follow that up with a game against UTEP on Thursday night. They need to be wary of another upset.

Wichita State 70, LSU 69
I was underwhelmed with Wichita State in this game. They are my pick to win the Missouri Valley Conference, and should be good enough to contend for an at-large bid as well, but they needed a late clutch three-pointer to survive a very mediocre LSU team. They completely shut down LSU in the first half (23% shooting from the field) and opened up a 14 point halftime lead, but fell asleep in the second half. If they let off the pedal like this on the road against an SEC team, how are they going to avoid several bad losses in conference? It just continues to look more and more like the Valley will be a one-bid league again. Still, despite no good wins (a win over Virginia is the best), Wichita State is 8-2 without bad losses. If they can defy the odds and go something like 15-3 in Valley play, an at-large bid isn't out of the quesiton. Meanwhile, LSU falls to 7-4, but it's a tremendously soft 7-4. They have zero good wins, and losses to Nicholls State and Coastal Carolina. They are nowhere close to being a postseason quality team.

Virginia Tech 88, Mississippi State 57
Welcome to the Renardo Sidney era! The hyped 2009 recruit who missed all of last season with a suspension technically played his first game on Wednesday in a exhibition against Belhaven, but this was his first regular season game. Sidney has a lot of raw talent, but he just doesn't seem to have the mental part of his game under control. The criticism coming out Starkville was that Sidney was out of shape, and it wasn't a good sign when he had to leave the Belhaven game with cramps. He ended up making it through 25 minutes of this game, but fouled out with a mediocre 12 points, 3 rebounds and 4 turnovers. Unless something dramatically changes, I don't see Sidney being a program changer. The return of Dee Bost (also under suspension) will do a lot more for them than Sidney will. Mississippi State is 7-3, but they have zero wins over likely RPI Top 100 teams, and have losses to Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee State. They have chances for quality wins over the next couple of weeks (they're heading to the Diamond Head Classic, and will also play Saint Mary's on a neutral court on their way home from Hawaii), but the way they're playing now I don't see them collecting any quality wins. Bost will be back for the start of SEC play, but they might already be out of at-large contention by then.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

W-12 BP68

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. Michigan State
2. Texas
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Georgetown

3. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
3. Kentucky
3. Syracuse
3. Illinois

4. Baylor
4. Kansas State
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
4. BYU (MWC)

5. Villanova
5. San Diego State
5. Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M

6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. Florida
6. North Carolina
6. UNLV

7. UConn
7. Purdue
7. Missouri
7. Louisville

8. Vanderbilt
8. West Virginia
8. Maryland
8. Notre Dame

9. UTAH STATE (WAC)
9. New Mexico
9. Minnesota
9. Arizona

10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. Northwestern
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)
10. Marquette

11. Oklahoma State
11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Florida State
11. Xavier

12. Boston College
12. Washington State
12. Saint Mary's
12. Richmond
12. Virginia Tech
12. Central Florida

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, NC State, Cincinnati, Providence, Michigan, Iowa State, Southern Miss, Missouri State, California

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia, Dayton, Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. John's, Seton Hall, Indiana, Drexel, George Mason, VCU, UAB, Cleveland State, Arizona State, UCLA, USC, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Wake Forest, La Salle, UMass, Saint Louis, Rutgers, South Florida, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Marshall, UTEP, Tulsa, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Colorado State, TCU, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Boise State

Desperate Gonzaga Finally Wins One

Gonzaga 68, #9 Baylor 64
The problem with playing elite opponents is that you can end up losing a bunch of games. The good part about playing elite opponents is that even if you lose some you'll continue getting chances to finally get that big scalp. Gonzaga came into this game desperate after losing to every other elite team they've played so far - to the point that there was real concern that the Zags wouldn't be good enough to earn an at-large bid. They will set those fears aside for at least a while with this strong win. Interestingly enough Gonzaga got a lot of bench production, including a very strong 13 points from Marquise Carter. Of the established Zags stars, only Robert Sacre (17 points and 6 rebounds against Baylor's tremendous frontline) played well. Still, even with this win Gonzaga is a long way toward assuring another Tournament bid. They're only 6-5, and still could probably use another elite win. They still have games against Memphis and Oklahoma State ahead, as well as a game against Xavier on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, it's hard to criticize Scott Drew too much because of how good of a job he's done rebuilding Baylor, but you have to wonder about the very short rotation (effectively seven players) he went with throughout this game against a deep Gonzaga team. It just seemed like Baylor wore out down the stretch. This is Baylor's first loss of the season, and it's against a quality team, but to be fair they've played a complete cupcake schedule. We still don't truly know how good this team is. They shouldn't be too seriously tested again until they head to Kansas on January 17th.

#25 Texas 78, North Carolina 76
Things have fallen far enough for North Carolina that they'll be happy with the way this game turned out. It's not that they'll be glad that they only lost by two points to Texas - they haven't fallen that far - but they may have finally found a point guard. Larry Drew III has been one of the primary problems for this team since Ty Lawson left, and he was in the midst of another awful game in this one (2 points, 3 assists, 4 turnovers, 5 fouls) when freshman Kendall Marshall really began to establish himself as a very exciting option (7 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and only 1 turnover in only 15 minutes). Roy Williams should think seriously about starting Marshall along with Dexter Strickland, Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson. UNC falls to 7-4, but without a bad loss. If they can avoid a bad loss before starting ACC play (including a game against Rutgers) they should be in a position to get back to the NCAA Tournament if they can go 9-7 in the ACC regular season along with a decent ACC tournament. For Texas, the star was freshman Cory Joseph (21 points on 8-for-14 shooting, including a bunch of clutch play down the stretch). This really was the Day of the Freshman across the nation. Kansas has looked great this season, but Texas has (to me) looked like their top competitor in the Big 12. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, their only game of the regular season against Kansas will be in Lawrence, on January 22nd.

Georgia Tech 67, Richmond 54
This game proves that while the ACC is down this season, it's not as bad as the mainstream media thinks it is. Georgia Tech has probably been the worst team in the ACC other than Wake Forest thus far, but they're still good enough that they'll beat quality teams that don't show up. And Richmond didn't show up here: 3 offensive rebounds and 2 steals aren't going to cut it, particularly when the field goal defense is poor. This is a really tough loss for a Richmond team still trying to overcome that early season loss to Iona. Still, they're 8-3 with wins over Purdue, Arizona State and VCU. They still will play Seton Hall and Wake Forest before beginning Atlantic Ten play. This is a nice win for Georgia Tech, and they also have a win over UTEP, but they've also got a bad loss to Kennesaw State and had computer ratings well outside the Top 100 entering this game. They've still got a really large hill to climb to even get onto the bubble.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Kansas State Exposed

#24 Florida 57, #6 Kansas State 44
I've been talking for some time about the fact that Kansas State is overrated. The computers view them as a borderline Top 25 team, and I think that's about right. Kansas State relies far too heavily on streaky outside shooting. Even against a team like Florida that struggles with interior defense, K-State seemed satisfied to launch threes, at a 3-for-19 clip. That said, they still should have won this game. The Gators had 9 more turnovers and 5 fewer offensive rebounds, meaning 14 fewer possessions. No matter how badly a team shoots they'll generally win when they get 14 more possessions. Florida is still a flawed team, and despite this win I don't see the Gators seriously contending in the relatively weak SEC. As for Kansas State, they are likely the third or fourth best team in the Big 12 and they remain in the hunt for a very good Tournament seed. Their next game is Tuesday night against UNLV. Florida moves to 8-2 with this win and a win over Florida State. They have a few cupcakes ahead before heading to Xavier on December 31st. They open SEC play against Ole Miss on January 8th.

West Virginia 74, Cleveland State 63
This was one of the games I was most anticipating this morning, believe it or not. The reason: Cleveland State was probably the biggest enigma in the country. They entered the game 12-0, but without anything close to a quality win. The computers were fairly impressed, but I still wanted to see them play a quality team, and they did acquit themselves pretty well. They struggled a bit with West Virginia's length and athleticism in the post, but the reality is that they won't see a frontcourt like WVA's anywhere in the Horizon League. Cleveland State's guards were very impressive, and I'll be curious to see how they respond on Wednesday against South Florida. If they're as good as the computers think, they should win that game. As for West Virginia, they've gotten lost in the Big East shuffle, and they're quietly 8-2 with wins over Vanderbilt, Duquesne and a 24 point thumping Oakland (looking more impressive now than it did at the time). Their ability to get hot behind the arc means that they should pull off a big upset or two in Big East play, so they should make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 10-8 in Big East play. They open against St. John's on December 29th.

Texas A&M 71, Arkansas 62, OT
This game was all about intensity. Arkansas came out with fire and took the early lead, and had a nine point second half lead when a fight broke out. That's when Texas A&M woke up from their slumber and flexed their muscles. Once they got the game to overtime Arkansas didn't have a chance - they're just not as talented or as deep. The star for Texas A&M was Khris Middleton, who has been the star all season long. The leading scorer for the Aggies had 31 points on 10-for-16 shooting. Texas A&M is now 10-1 with wins over Washington and Temple, and shouldn't be tested again until they open Big 12 play with the two Oklahoma teams. Arkansas has arguably actually been the best team in the SEC West, although that's not saying much. And it's hard to make too many judgments of them because their schedule has been so soft. That will change rapidly when January rolls around with back-to-back games against Texas and Tennessee. As good as the Arkansas won-loss record is, I just don't see them even getting close to the bubble this season - they're in rebuilding mode.

Welcome Josh Selby

#3 Kansas 70, USC 68
It's hard to think of another player in recent memory who played this well in this large of a situation in his first career collegiate game. He led all players with 21 points (including 5-for-8 behind the arc), but more than that was his presence. He was so clutch and cool that when he had his chance for the game winner with under 30 seconds remaining I had no doubt that he'd hit it. He might already the team's go-to scorer. If there's any caution to throw out here it's that Selby has to prove that he can do this again - anybody heard from Pe'Shon Howard since his remarkable debut? But Josh Selby is not Pe'Shon Howard, and I don't think Kansas fans are worried. Kansas was a little bit disjointed offensively in this one, but it's hard not to expect that when you're trying to incorporate a new key cog. Kansas will be fine, and as long as Duke is without Kyrie Irving I think Kansas has the title of best team in the nation. As for USC, this game could have paired very nicely with their win over Texas two weeks ago, but in reality even a win here wouldn't have gotten them all the way back to the bubble. They have no other wins over likely RPI Top 100 teams, and they have losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU and Nebraska. They are improving, and they'll have the ability on any given night to challenge any team in the relatively weak Pac-10, but they're still at least a year away from being back on the bubble.

Central Florida 84, Miami (Fl) 78
Despite having the son of Michael Jordan as arguably their best player, UCF has been remarkably far under the radar as an undefeated team out of Conference USA. The fact that they have no history of success is the reason, of course. But those that follow the computer numbers have known for some time that this UCF team is for real. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy had them as a Top 40 team in the nation even before playing this game. They're now 10-0 with wins over Florida State and South Florida to go with this win. The big worry now is Marcus Jordan, who hobbled out of this game late with an apparent ankle injury. We probably won't know for a few days how long he'll be out. They can't really afford to lose him for any time at all as they've got a tough game just four days from now (on the road at UMass). As for Miami, they continue to disappoint me. Their perimeter defense is poor, their rebounding is poor, and they seem disjointed offensively. I expected more out of them this season than what they've been: 7-3 with wins over West Virginia and Ole Miss, and a loss to Rutgers. Even if they avoid bad losses between now and the beginning of ACC play, a 9-7 ACC record still may actually not be enough to assure them a Tournament bid because of the perceived weakness of the conference.

Illinois-Chicago 57, #14 Illinois 54
I've talked recently about how many upsets we see this time of year, after the early season tournaments and before conference play, and while the players on glamor teams tend to be thinking more about finals and Christmas than anything else. But even by those standards this was a shocking upset. UIC came into this game 4-7, and arguably the worst team in the entire Horizon League. Pomeroy's ratings game Illinois a 98% chance of winning. Illini fans can blame this one on being at the United Center, instead of at Assembly Hall where Illinois has a tremendous homecourt advantage. But there's no excuse for the game even being close. The Illini don't have long to lick their wounds as they're off to play Missouri on Wednesday night, a team that I do think they're better than. They will get off to a difficult start in Big Ten play as well, getting Wisconsin (twice), Michigan State, Ohio State and Northwestern all in the month of January. As for UIC, this victory is a lot more about the future than the now. This team will not finish near the top of the Horizon League - this game was a fluke. But this is an encouraging sign under first year head coach Howard Moore, and will help with recruiting.

Friday, December 17, 2010

The Season Of Upsets: Louisville, UNLV, Tennessee

There are always a lot of upsets this time of year. The top teams have mostly finished up their quality out-of-conference games, and their players are focused on finals, Christmas and upcoming conference games. Those teams then run into mid-majors desperate for a big win before beginning conference play, and upsets happen. We always have a lot. But this year has been particularly upset-licious. Here are three more big upsets from the past few days:

Drexel 52, #21 Louisville 46
The Colonial Athletic Association has been off to a strong start - a whole bunch of teams have played better than expected. But the most surprising team of all has to be Drexel. Way back in April I thought Drexel would be a quality team (I picked them to finish fourth in the CAA, and to be a borderline bubble team). But in late July disaster struck and they lost two players, including their leading scorer & assist man from last season. I thought their season was over. But with their best scoring punch gone, Bruiser Flint turned his team into a defensive menace. They are 30th in the nation in effective shooting percentage against, and 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage - and they're 314th in the nation in tempo. Louisville learned the hard way that nobody is going to put up a lot of points against this team. In 8 games coming into this one Louisville had averaged 62.8 shots from the field and 25.1 free throw attempts. In this one they got their 25 free throw attempts, but only 47 shots from the field. Drexel is now a soft 7-1. This is by far their best win, and they have a six point loss at Rhode Island that could still end up being an RPI 100+ loss. But it's way better than I expected, and I would no longer be shocked if Drexel works their way onto the bubble. As for Louisville, this is their first loss of the season and they do have wins over UNLV and Butler. They'll hope that this doesn't turn into an RPI 100+ loss, but Louisville still has chances to make up for it even before Big East play begins. They will play at Western Kentucky on Wednesday, and have their rivalry game against Kentucky on December 31st. They begin Big East play on January 5th against Seton Hall.

UC Santa Barbara 68, #22 UNLV 62
UC Santa Barbara played well and collected a good win, but this result had a lot more to do with UNLV's flaws than anything else. I've talked about this before, but this year's UNLV team is very reliant on outside shooting. They do not have a lot of skill in the paint, and they are a streak shooting team. When they hot they get white hot and can beat just about any team in the country. But when they get cold (they shot 6-for-29 behind the arc in this game)? They can lose to almost anybody. UNLV benefits from their tough schedule because they will get to collect some nice scalps. They've already beaten Wisconsin, Virginia Tech and Tulsa, and they'll get a few more nice wins in Mountain West play. They'll win more than 20 games and they'll go Dancing. But they will have some inexplicable losses - this won't be the last. UNLV led in this game 38-37 with about 17 minutes remaining. They proceeded to score 8 points over approximately the next 10 minutes. Their offensive futility was UCSB's gain. The Gauchos move to 5-3, but this is by far their best win, and all of their losses are against likely RPI 100+ teams. But this win is the type that could be the difference between a 13 or 14 or 15 seed should they win the Big West Conference. And right now I view that conference as a three-way race between UCSB, Long Beach State and Pacific.

Charlotte 49, #7 Tennessee 48
I think I've finally figured out Tennessee. Whatever I think is going to happen to them, the opposite happens. There's no other way to explain the way they've played the past couple of seasons. Last year they had four of their best players suspended and had to play for weeks getting key minutes from the last few players on their bench, including walk-ons. And all of this happened less than two weeks after an embarrassing 22 point loss to a mediocre USC team. At the time I talked about how dire the situation looked. Naturally they came out and knocked off Kansas, the consensus best team in the nation, and played their best ball of the season over the next couple of weeks. They came into this season with all sorts of worries, including a coach under fire and an exhibition loss to a Division-II squad. So naturally they won their first 7 games of the season, including wins over Pitt, Villanova and Missouri State - making their way up to 7th in the polls. Then they came out this week and lost to Oakland. Thankfully if there was a team to bounce back against it was a Charlotte team that came in 4-6 and was rated outside the Top 200 in the nation by Sagarin and was playing their first game since kicking their best player (Shamari Spears) off the team. Motivated by that Oakland loss there was no way they could possibly lose this one, right? Naturally. So at this point the best way to project Tennessee's future is to try to come up with the most educated guess, and then to assume that the exact opposite will happen.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Oakland Completes An Upset: Tennessee

Oakland 89, #7 Tennessee 82
Oakland is a quality team that has consistently come up just short against elite opponents. They actually came into this game off of two consecutive close losses against quality teams (Michigan State and Illinois). It was interesting watching the expressions of the Oakland players after the final whistle in this one - they didn't even seem particularly excited, they just looked like they had gotten a big frustration over with. They were relieved more than they were happy. Oakland's strength all season has been on offense: both shooting the ball and grabbing offensive rebounds when they miss, and they did that here. They shot 54% from the field, and fought to a near draw on the boards against a big and athletic Tennessee team (33% offensive rebounding percentage for Oakland vs 35% for Tennessee). Upsets do happen, but if there's one worry for Tennessee from this game it's perimeter defense. They were torched repeatedly by Oakland's guards. Of course, this Tennessee team also lost to D-II Indianapolis in the preseason and it didn't stop them from beating Pitt and Villanova over the past few weeks, and this loss to Oakland is their first regular season loss of the year. I don't think this is a reason to panic. For Oakland, this is a very nice win, but they're only 6-5 overall with a mediocre loss to Wright State - needless to say, I don't see an at-large bid in their future. But assuming that they win the Summit League's auto bid this win could be the difference between a 12 and a 13 seed. They will certainly be a potential Cinderella team.

Southern Miss 80, California 78
Jorge Gutierrez had a chance to win this game for California, but his last chance three-pointer bounced out. The star for Southern Miss was Gary Flowers, who scored the final 12 points for Southern Miss and finished with 28 points on 10-for-16 shooting. Flowers wasn't the only frontcourt player to do well for Southern Miss - Josimar Ayarza and Ahyaro Phillips combined to score 21 points on 7-for-16 shooting. Cal has had problems with interior play all season long, and they will face better frontcourts in the Pac-10 than Southern Miss. This loss drops Cal to 5-4, but this may end up not being a bad loss, and Cal does have wins over Temple and New Mexico. So they still would be right on the bubble if the season ended now (their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 46th). They have a December 22nd game against Kansas, and then begin Pac-10 play on January 2nd at Stanford. If they don't upset Kansas they will probably have to go at least 11-7 in Pac-10 play to go Dancing. As for Southern Miss, they move to 7-1, but it's a soft 7-1. This is probably their best win (they also have a road win at South Florida), and their loss came at Ole Miss. Their next chance for a decent win will be at the Cancun Governor's Cup, where they'll open with East Tennessee State, then they'll play Northeastern or Saint Louis in their second game, and could potentially play Ole Miss again in their third game. After that, their remaining quality games will all happen in Conference USA play.

Coastal Carolina 78, LSU 69, OT
The SEC West teams have seemingly been on crusades to see which can put together more embarrassing losses this season, but LSU actually had been off to an alright start. They were 6-2 coming into this one, although one of those losses was to Nicholls State. This won't be a good loss either. Their best win was probably the nine-pointer at home over Houston a couple of weeks ago. They still have a home game against Wichita State along with road games at Rice and Virginia before beginning SEC play. As for Coastal Carolina, they might be even better than last year's squad, which won 28 games and went to the NIT. They're 8-2 with losses only against Georgetown and on the road at College of Charleston. The Big South Conference will not get an at-large bid, but Coastal Carolina is making a bid for a seed as high as a 14 should they win the auto bid. In my opinion, Winthrop is still the narrow favorite to win the conference, but Coastal Carolina deserves to be in the discussion, as does Charleston Southern, and perhaps also UNC-Asheville.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Boston College A Contender For 2nd In ACC?

Boston College 79, Maryland 75
I was one of the first people on the Boston College bandwagon this season and have been thoroughly impressed with the job Steve Donahue has done drastically improving the basketball fundamentals of his players, but even I'm pretty shocked by this result. For a while on Sunday evening the top two teams in the ACC standings were Virginia and Boston College - the two teams picked by many to finish 11th and 12th in the ACC. But that said, to answer the question in the title of this post: No, I don't see Boston College finishing any higher than fourth or fifth, even in a weakened ACC. The fact is that they've been a bit fortunate. In this game they were white hot from threes, and used those shots to come back every time Maryland appeared to be pulling ahead. Maryland had five fewer turnovers and two more offensive rebounds, and also had more assists, steals and blocks. They also shot better on two-pointers because of their strong passing and superior interior play. But no matter how well you play it's tough to win when you are outscored by 30 points on treys. But despite the loss, and despite my position on the Boston College bandwagon, I came out of watching this game feeling like Maryland is the better team of the two. They will have better days, and Boston College is going to struggle to beat the top half of the ACC when their outside shots aren't falling. Boston College moves to 8-2 with a slew of good wins (Texas A&M, Maryland, Cal), and only that one bad loss to Yale. The Selection Committee has shown repeatedly that they will overlook one bad loss if a team has a bunch of big wins, so Boston College fans don't have to worry too much about that one loss. Still, BC likely has to go 9-7 or better in ACC play to make the Tournament, unless they have a strong ACC tournament. So they've got a long way to go before their fans can start buying Tournament tickets. They next have a few tough out-of-conference games (at Rhode Island, at South Carolina, vs Harvard) before returning to ACC play against Georgia Tech on January 8th. Maryland falls to 7-4 with no bad losses but no good wins either. They have three cupcakes coming up before heading to Duke on January 9th.

Florida State 75, Clemson 69
As I said, for a while on Sunday evening the top of the ACC was made up of Virginia and Boston College. Florida State brought a little bit of normalcy back late on Sunday night by taking care of business against Clemson and joining the tie at 1-0. Florida State got a starring performance in this one from Deividas Dulkys, who led all Seminoles players with 17 points, including three key made shots from behind the arc in the second half. Chris Singleton was the only other Florida State player to finish in double digits. FSU will have to hope to see this again, because they have not gotten any consistent offense from anybody other than Singleton. And it's only that offense that is holding them back, because once again the Seminoles are a tremendous defensive team. They're rated #1 in the nation in Pomeroy adjusted defensive efficiency, which is nothing new from them (they finished #1 in the nation last season as well). Offense has been the problem in Tallahassee for a while. As for Clemson, it wasn't long ago that they owned the paint against most ACC foes with players like Trevor Booker and James Mays. But right now they've got nothing going on in there, and they were dominated inside here by FSU. They fall now to 5-4 with their best win coming against Seton Hall, along with a loss to Michigan that might end up being an RPI 100+ loss. They have to beware a December 22nd road game at College of Charleston, but other than that have only cupcakes before returning to ACC play on January 8th with a home game against Miami, followed by a home game against Georgia Tech. There won't be many two game stretches easier than that in ACC play this year, so Clemson absolutely has to take advantage if they're going to get back onto the bubble.

Virginia Tech 79, Penn State 69
Staying in the ACC for one more game, this was actually a worrying win for Virginia Tech. The fact is that Penn State is one of the two worst teams in the Big Ten and the Hokies were playing them at home and then proceeded to hit 47% of their threes and 58% of their twos... and they still only won by ten points. A Tournament team shooting that well should blow away a team like Penn State on their home court. Malcolm Delaney played well (18 points on 6-for-9 shooting, along with 8 assists), as did Terrell Bell and Jeff Allen inside (double-doubles for both of them). They are now back to 5-4 with this win along with a win against Oklahoma State, and a loss to Virginia that may end up being an RPI 100+ loss. Next they will take on a reeling Mississippi State squad. As for Penn State, they once again got a superstar performance from Talor Battle (26 points, 5 rebounds, 0 turnovers) and they still stunk. It makes you wonder where this team will be next year when he finally leaves. With Indiana, Iowa and Michigan all improving programs, Penn State is going to be near the basement of the Big Ten for a while. They are 7-3 without any really bad losses, but their best win (by far) was against Duquesne. They open Big Ten play on December 27th at Indiana, and then head to Michigan on January 2nd.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

W-13 BP68

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. Michigan State
2. Texas
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Georgetown

3. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
3. Kentucky
3. Syracuse
3. Illinois

4. Kansas State
4. Baylor
4. BYU (MWC)
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)

5. Villanova
5. San Diego State
5. North Carolina
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

6. Florida
6. UNLV
6. Wisconsin
6. Texas A&M

7. UConn
7. Purdue
7. Missouri
7. Louisville

8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. New Mexico
8. West Virginia
8. Vanderbilt

9. UTAH STATE (WAC)
9. Maryland
9. Notre Dame
9. Arizona

10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. Minnesota
10. Northwestern
10. Marquette

11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Xavier
11. Oklahoma State
11. Florida State

12. Richmond
12. Washington State
12. Virginia Tech
12. Saint Mary's
12. Boston College
12. California

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. LIU (NEC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Miami (Fl), NC State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Iowa State, Central Florida, Missouri State

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, Dayton, Duquesne, Rhode Island, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Indiana, George Mason, VCU, UAB, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Arizona State, UCLA, USC, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Wake Forest, UMass, Saint Louis, Rutgers, South Florida, Penn State, Nebraska, Drexel, Marshall, UTEP, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Colorado State, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Boise State

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Irish Nearly Blow Gonzaga Game

#23 Notre Dame 83, Gonzaga 79
This game seemed as good as over when the Irish were up by 13 with under four minutes to play. But Notre Dame took their foot off the pedal and lost their intensity, and Gonzaga grew confident and played their best ball of the game during a furious comeback attempt. As a whole, both of these teams played tremendously efficient offensive games, combining for 39 assists on 53 made baskets, and only 17 turnovers. Both teams shot over 50% behind the arc. Neither defense was any good, but I was particularly bothered by Gonzaga, which just seemed lazy when you consider their athleticism. Their defensive footwork was awful. The Zags are now an unfathomable 4-5 with only a win over Marquette. They still have Baylor, Memphis, Xavier and Oklahoma State ahead, but at this point I don't see any reason to see the Zags winning more than one of those games. Unless they pull a couple of upsets, they're actually going to have to win the WCC tournament or they will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, the year before they burst onto the national scene. For Notre Dame, this was a nice way to bounce back from their first loss of the season against Kentucky. I don't think they belong in any Big East title talk, but they certainly do look like an NCAA Tournament team right now. They have two cupcakes ahead before opening Big East play against Georgetown on December 29th.

Oklahoma State 84, Missouri State 70
Oklahoma State got a breakout game from Juco transfer Jan-Paul Olukemi, who had a career high 21 points off the bench. In all, Oklahoma State got 43 points off the bench as part of a solid victory. They've quietly moved to 8-1 with Alabama, Stanford and Gonzaga as their next three opponents. If they can somehow win all of those games they'll be in really good shape as they enter Big 12 play. Missouri State has been one of the two best teams in the Missouri Valley this season (along with Wichita State), but at this point it's looking very likely that the Valley will again be a one-bid league. Missouri State is 6-3 without a bad loss, but they do not have a quality win either. They play Saint Louis next Saturday, but in the end Missouri State's Tournament hopes most likely will lie on their Arch Madness success.

East Tennessee State 63, Mississippi State 62
The Selection Committee will take into account missing players on Selection Sunday, but they just don't care very much. The fact that Mississippi State has been without Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost because of suspension doesn't mean that we can ignore all of their key out-of-conference games. Even without a player like Sidney, there's no reason for a team like Mississippi State to get blown away on the boards by an Atlantic Sun team (ETSU had an offensive rebounding percentage of 58%, MSU had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30%). Mississippi State is now 4-2 against a cupcake schedule, with the losses coming against Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee State. They should have Sidney back when they start playing quality opponents (Virginia Tech on December 18th will be the first), but Mississippi State has now dug themselves a huge hole to try to get out of. As for ETSU, this is a nice win, but to me they are not a serious contender for the Atlantic Sun title. Belmont is the best team, and Lipscomb has probably been the second best team so far.

So How Good Is Arizona Anyway?

#21 BYU 87, Arizona 65
Every year there are a few teams that are rated far differently by Pomeroy's ratings than by humans, and more often than not he gets proven right (For the most part Sagarin's PREDICTOR mirrors Pomeroy's ratings, but Sagarin is not nearly as visible as a person online, so we don't ever see him defending his ratings like Pomeroy does). This year the #1 team that's fallen into this debate is Arizona, a team rated in the Top Ten by Pomeroy for almost the entire season (as well as 12th by Sagarin's PREDICTOR) while the human pollsters aren't putting them even that close to the Top 25. And now Arizona goes out and gets absolutely thumped by BYU, so the question is: was Pomeroy wrong? Pomeroy has already come out and blamed it on Arizona really struggling with zone defenses, but I find that a weak defense. If you can't play against zone defenses in Division I college basketball you're going to end up seeing a whole lot of zone. Instead, I think Arizona was just a little bit overrated because of some really big blowouts of inferior teams. Sabermetricians note that blowing out bad teams does actually mean more to future performance than close wins over quality teams, but at the same time I don't think a 45 point win means more than a 35 point win. Pomeroy himself often admits that he has thought about capping winning margin in his ratings for this very reason. Arizona had only played one Top 100 team already this season (Kansas) and lost, so the sample size just wasn't there. Arizona is a good team, but I just don't think they're a Top Ten team. As for BYU, this sure was an impressive win. Other than Jimmer Fredette nobody really stood out (other than maybe Jackson Emery), but they did get a lot of bench production, and it's a good thing to have a lot of bench options to turn to - to not be dependent on the same three or four people every game. BYU moves to 10-0 with wins over Saint Mary's, Utah State and South Florida along with this one. At this point they're certainly keeping pace with UNLV and San Diego State atop the Mountain West. Their next game will be against UCLA next Saturday.

#16 Kentucky 81, Indiana 62
This game was a whole lot closer than the final score. The game was within 2-4 points almost the entire way, and Indiana even pulled into the lead briefly with a little under ten minutes to go. But from that point on they went ice cold. Over the next nine minutes they shot 0-for-10 from the field. Kentucky grew confident with their home crowd behind them and pulled away. For Indiana, this is just another sign that they are improved, but not improved enough to be a Tournament team. They are 7-2 but without a quality win. They head to Northern Iowa on December 22nd, but their next big test will be New Year's Eve against Ohio State. Kentucky is also 7-2, but their 7 wins include victories over Washington and Notre Dame. They shouldn't be tested again until they play on December 31st at Louisville.

Richmond 72, VCU 60
Richmond did a really good job of pushing the ball into the paint, earning high percentage shots while VCU was stuck firing from outside. Other than star Jamie Skeen, the other frontcourt players for VCU combined for 8 points and 3 rebounds. Richmond continues to put that loss to Iona in the rearview mirror, and they (along with Temple) really appear to be separating themselves from the rest of the Atlantic Ten. Richmond will play Georgia Tech next Saturday, and also plays Seton Hall and Wake Forest before beginning the A-10 regular season. As for VCU, they still do not have a bad loss, but they are 6-3 with only wins against UCLA and Wake Forest worth anything. They don't have any big time opponents left on their schedule, so they'll have to go at least 14-4 in Colonial play to have a shot at an at-large.