Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Morning News: Tennessee Goes Nuts Vs Virginia. Also, Chane Behanan Done, Michael Cobbins Done, Toledo Impresses, Louisiana Tech Over Oklahoma & Luke Fischer

Boosting your W-L record by playing bible colleges nobody has heard of that suck at basketball is the new market inefficiency.

Tennessee Goes Nuts Against Virginia It's just been that kind of year so far for the Hoos. They can't win a close game, and they keep running into statistical flukes. This game was an example of the latter. Tennessee won this game by 35 points, yet if we plug in each team's season-average 3P% and FT% that winning margin plunges to 12 points. Prior to this game, Tennessee had broken 50% behind the arc once this season and was below 15% three times - they hit 61% here. Virginia didn't deserve to win this game, but that winning margin makes this game look much more lopsided than it really was.

So is Virginia still a tourney team? I definitely think they are. If they were in the WCC this non-conference performance would be a problem, but they're in the ACC. They'll collect at least a couple of big scalps, and should be fine if they get to 10-8 or better in ACC play. Though as mediocre as their offense is, they're always going to be vulnerable to any team that gets hot behind the arc (particularly since this Virginia team is not good at preventing three point attempts), so don't be surprised if they suffer another bad loss or two this season.

This is a big win for Tennessee's at-large case. They have this win and a win over Xavier to go with losses to UTEP and NC State. Assuming a win over Tusculum, they should be in good shape with an 11-7 SEC record. If they go 10-8 then they'll likely need a win or two in the SEC tournament.

Chane Behanan Done At Louisville Chane Behanan has been kicked out of the University of Louisville. With rumors that Kevin Ware might take the rest of the season off and seek a medical redshirt, Louisville is really starting to get shorthanded. Russ Smith is still the best player in the country, so Louisville is still going to be a very good team, but it's looking very unlikely that they'll be able to get back to a 1 seed. A 2 or 3 seed is much more likely, even if they sweep the AAC titles.

Michael Cobbins Likely Done For The Season Oklahoma State's Michael Cobbins looks to be done for the season with an achilles injury. Cobbins isn't Marcus Smart or Markel Brown, so this isn't a devastating loss, but he had started every game so far this season for Oklahoma State. Kamari Brown has actually been more efficient than Cobbins as a big man so far this season, but the big difference is that they'll now no longer have Kamari Brown coming off the bench. Oklahoma State is now very shorthanded in the front court, and could really struggle to rebound the ball. Kansas has been my favorite all season long in the Big 12, and this injury just makes me even more confident in that prediction.

Toledo Impresses In Loss To Kansas Toledo's undefeated season was always going to end at Allen Fieldhouse, but they impressed in defeat. They hung in until the final minute, giving the Kansas ball handlers a lot of trouble (18 turnovers) while limiting the damage from Andrew Wiggins (20 points) and Joel Embiid (14). There are other contenders in the MAC (Ohio and Akron being the most impressive so far), but Toledo clearly looks like the favorite right now to win the league.

Louisiana Tech Wins At Oklahoma This game was humorous to watch. The two announcers (I believe they were Bob Carpenter and former-Oklahoma head coach Billy Tubbs) were totally incoherent and out of it. A lot of good marijuana jokes were made on twitter. But this game did have an exciting finish, even if the announcers didn't quite realize it. At the end of regulation, Cam Clark grabbed an offensive rebound and dribbled behind the arc with enough time to launch a 23-24 foot fadeaway that somehow went in to send the game into overtime.

The difference in the extra period was free throw shooting, honestly. Louisiana Tech hit 13-for-14 in the extra period. Throw in the two that Kenneth Smith made just before the Cam Clark three and FT shooting won the night for the Bulldogs. Keep in mind that they came into this game 305th in the nation with a 64.5 FT%. But however it came, this is a nice win, and the Bulldogs remain my favorite in Conference USA. Southern Miss seems like their top competition at this point, with UAB, UTEP and Charlotte lurking.

Oklahoma came into this game 11-1, but it was against a cupcake schedule. Their two best wins were over Alabama and Mercer. They'll probably need to get to 9-9 in Big 12 play with a big scalp or two and a win or two in the Big 12 tournament to earn an at-large bid, and at this point I'd bet against that.

Luke Fischer To Transfer From Indiana This is the type of news that will fly well under the radar now but could matter a lot in two years. The 6'11" true freshman has a ton of raw talent and was a highly sought after recruit. He's supposedly "homesick", so look for the Wisconsin-raised boy to head to Wisconsin, Marquette or Northwestern.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Morning News: Syracuse Pulls Away From Villanova, Kentucky/Louisville Narratives, Mitch McGary Out & UMass Escapes Providence

Kentucky fans are thrilled to beat their arch-rivals, but this is their real concern.

New Bracket Projection It's Sunday, so there is a new bracket projection posted. The changes were mostly academic this week. Notre Dame had to drop out of the Field of 68 because of losing Jerian Grant, and Saint Mary's had to drop out because of their terrible week in Hawaii. But who should move in? That was the difficult question. I went with Arizona State and Illinois, but there are easily a half dozen other teams I could have gone with. Meanwhile, the top of the bracket stays basically unchanged. Of the 12 seeds getting a 1-3 seed, only one changed this week.

Syracuse Pulls Away From Villanova Villanova is a team that takes almost half of their shots from behind the arc, and so against the Syracuse zone this game was bound to come down to how well they shot the three ball. And that is precisely what happened. Villanova got off to a hot start, hitting 5 of their first 8 behind the arc, and jumping out to a 25-7 lead. But the rest of the game they shot a brutal 5-for-23 behind the arc, and the Orange just chipped away at that lead. The final score is deceptive, as Syracuse hit 14 free throws in the final four minutes, but Villanova was never going to win this game shooting 32% on threes.

Syracuse has been at their best when Trevor Cooney has shot well, and he continues to be impressive. He hit 5-for-8 behind the arc here, pushing his season average up to 51%. The question with Syracuse has been how real this offensive outburst from Cooney and Tyler Ennis is. Both have come from absolutely nowhere to become efficiency monsters, and to turn this Syracuse team into a plausible national title contender. It's possible that they'll turn into a pumpkin eventually, but the longer this goes on the more we have to just accept that Cooney and Ennis are who they have played like the last two months.

Villanova is no longer undefeated, though I'm sure Villanova fans all would have signed up for this during the preseason. The concern with them going forward is this big dependence on outside shooting, particularly when they're not even a great outside shooting team (32.6% so far this season). So can they win consistently enough to win the Big East? At this point I'd bet against it. But they're definitely a contender, and they definitely are playing like a 3-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky Proves That They've Figured Out How To Win LOL. Just kidding. I was having fun pregame joking on twitter that whether two or three three-pointers go in or out will determine whether a thousand lazy sportswriters will write their "Kentucky is too young and they still haven't figure out how to win" or their "Kentucky's young players are growing up together and have finally figured out how to win" article. And you can get a taste of that genre here, here and here. In reality, if Louisville had shot their season-average 35% behind the arc instead of 23%, they would have probably won the game and we'd be back to the "Kentucky still hasn't learned how to win yet" articles.

In the end, this game was what we expected it to be, with Kentucky controlling the glass and Louisville having the superior backcourt. If Louisville had Gorgui Dieng they'd probably be the best team in the country. But they don't, and even without Julius Randle (more on him in a moment) Kentucky controlled the paint. And the Harrison twins played probably their best game so far this season, limiting the gap between them and Russ Smith and Chris Jones.

The reality all along was that the panic over Kentucky was dumb. Like Kansas, all three of Kentucky's losses have come away from home, against very good teams, by an average of around four points. Kansas has more premier wins, which is why I have Kansas slightly ahead of Kentucky, but I've had both teams as 1 seeds all regular season. The media will get their freaking out about those two teams being too young over with by mid-January, and they'll start climbing the polls again. The real concern for Kentucky is the Julius Randle injury. It didn't seem to be particularly bad, but if he's out for a significant period of time then obviously that's a huge problem. Stay tuned on that one.

Louisville is most likely one of the five or six best teams in the country, but they played a soft non-conference schedule and have no big wins yet. In the AAC, their number of "big wins" will be limited, too. It's going to be difficult for them to earn a 1 seed without other top teams falling in their conference tournaments. That's why I have Louisville as a 2 seed at the moment.

Mitch McGary Out Indefinitely This is a tough blow for Michigan, obviously. I thought McGary was very overrated coming into this season (all most people saw of him were his two big NCAA Tournament games, which were outlier performances), but he's struggled even worse than I thought he would, and it's been obvious that something has been physically bothering him. He now is at serious risk of missing the entire rest of the season, though that will have to be determined later. Michigan is still an NCAA Tournament team without him, but I already thought they were a step below the Big Four in the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa), and this just makes it even more certain that they'll finish in fifth or sixth in the conference.

UMass Escapes Providence In Overtime Bryce Cotton tried his best to be the hero of this game. He sent this game into overtime, and then hit a clutch three late in overtime to potentially send the game into a second overtime. But UMass had enough time after a Trey Davis missed jumper for Derrick Gordon to grab the rebound and throw it back up for the game winner. Cotton was the star of the game, scoring 24 points with 5 rebounds and 5 assists, but he just didn't get enough help from his teammates. Tyler Harris had a nice game also (16 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists), but Providence just lacks depth in their lineup right now. UMass had six different players score between 8 and 14 points here.

This would have been a big win for Providence's bubble hopes. They remain on the bubble for now, but like Stanford they seem to lack the depth to win consistently enough in conference play for an at-large bid. UMass, assuming that they beat Elon and Miami University, should make the NCAA Tournament with a 10-6 or better Atlantic Ten record. So they should be able to get in without too much trouble.

W-11 BP68

For the last few weeks I've been talking about the slow part of the college basketball season around finals and the end of the fall semester. That time of the season is now done. Most of the premier teams in the country will open up conference play next week. Big results should start flying in, and the bracket should start firming up much more quickly.

For this bracket, there were two changes to the Field of 68 that had to be made. Notre Dame and Saint Mary's had to be dropped out. Notre Dame because of Jerian Grant, and Saint Mary's because of their no good very bad week in Hawaii.

So who moves into the Field of 68? That was more difficult to figure out. You can make good cases for Texas, SMU, Providence, Stanford, Arkansas and a couple others, but in the end I went with Arizona State and Illinois. But please don't take this as a huge vote of confidence in either team. I'd put the odds of each of those two teams making the Tournament at under 50%. They're just the best of a bunch of bad choices.

The 1 and 2 seeds stayed the same again this week, which isn't a surprise. Syracuse finally popped in as a 3 seed, but the other 3 seeds all stayed the same. I didn't panic about teams like Kansas, Kentucky and Florida, and as expected those programs are climbing back up the Top 25.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. Florida

3. Oklahoma State
3. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
3. Syracuse

4. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
4. Villanova
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Iowa State

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. UConn
5. Creighton
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. North Carolina
6. Pittsburgh
6. Memphis
6. Oregon

7. St. Louis
7. UMass
7. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
7. Michigan

8. Marquette
8. Baylor
8. Colorado
8. Florida State

9. Virginia
9. San Diego State
9. UCLA
9. Indiana

10. Cincinnati
10. LSU
10. Minnesota
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Missouri
11. Boise State
11. Tennessee
11. Butler

12. Clemson
12. Dayton
12. Arizona State
12. Illinois
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

13. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. BRYANT (NEC)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Maryland, Notre Dame, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah State,  California, Stanford, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, George Washington, Richmond, Purdue, Kansas State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Indiana State, UNLV, Utah, Alabama, Vanderbilt, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Central Florida, Temple, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, DePaul, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Texas A&M

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Morning News: Iowa State Wins Diamond Head And The Nightmare Continues For Saint Mary's

Quick! We got the trophy! Let's use these oars and row out of here before they notice it missing!

I hope everybody is enjoying this time with their family, and in the final calm before the real college basketball storm. The only college basketball that we had yesterday was the Diamond Head Classic, though we did have a couple of interesting games that you can read about below.

Today we have no college basketball games, so don't look for a Morning News post tomorrow. There also might not be one on Saturday (it'll depend on if anything particularly interesting happens on or off the court today or tomorrow). We do have a full Saturday of action, so look for a new bracket late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, as well as a full Morning News post on Sunday.

Those teams that haven't yet started up conference play should all start conference play next week. And we're only a few weeks away from my bracket projections including the "full bubble", when I start eliminating teams from at-large contention each week. Conference season barely gets started before the bubble battles really start heating up.

Anyway, let's talk about a couple of yesterday's games:

Iowa State Wins The Diamond Head Classic Over Boise State These were the two best teams at the Diamond Head Classic, so they deserved to play in the title game. Boise State grabbed the early lead in a game that was well played and efficient. The refs started to take over in the second half, with Boise State suffering a bit worse from foul trouble. If there was a difference in this game, though, it was Iowa State being able to use their size to control the glass. Melvin Ejim in particular was too physical and aggressive for Boise State to handle.

Iowa State is now 11-0 with wins over Iowa, Michigan, BYU and Boise State. That's a heck of a resume. Are they really as good as that resume, though? I'd say that they're close. This is clearly a very good team with real potential to win a few games in the NCAA Tournament. At the same time, four of their wins have been by four points or less or in overtime, with a fifth game also coming down to the final minute. Throw in a very good FT% and 3P% defense (two measures of luck that should regress to the mean over time), and Iowa State isn't quite as good as they've played, and they haven't played quite as well as their resume. So in my opinion, Iowa State is still a tier below Kansas and Oklahoma State in the Big 12. But I'd certainly take the Cyclones well before either Texas or Baylor, both of whom are very overrated.

The Mountain West has had a lot of struggles in non-conference play this season. There's no risk of it being a one-bid league or anything, but teams like New Mexico, UNLV and Boise State just have not won the games that they wanted to. Boise State is 11-3 with no bad losses, but with no big wins either. Without any big scalps to be had in conference play, they're realistically going to need to finish at least 11-7 in conference play to earn an at-large bid.

The Nightmare Continues for Saint Mary's At this point, it's almost getting redundant to talk about the woes of the WCC. But St. Mary's just can't get out of their own way, suffering yet another bad loss (this time to George Mason). And once again, it just seemed like they got out-worked. The Gaels were happy to settle for long jumpers all day (52% of their shots were taken behind the arc) while George Mason attacked the rim (26 free throw attempts, 5 three-point attempts).

This Saint Mary's team seems too reliant on three-pointers in general. Their defense isn't good, and when the threes aren't falling they lack a real go-to scorer. It's hard to imagine anybody could have seen them losing to South Carolina, Hawaii and George Mason back-to-back-to-back, and at this point the Gaels have a huge uphill battle to get back into the NCAA Tournament. Realistically, they're going to need something like a 15-3 conference record.

Paul Hewitt's squad had lost six of their last seven games coming into this one. So this is a great win, but it could be the highlight of their season. They're going to need to prove that this win wasn't a fluke if they're going to make a run at the top half of the Atlantic Ten.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Morning News: St. Mary's Is Having A Hawaiian Nightmare, Irish Lose Biedschied, Providence Loses Their Freshman Class

Welp

St. Mary's Is Having A Hawaiian Nightmare Yesterday, I talked about St. Mary's suffering a terrible loss to South Carolina, putting them in the consolation bracket at the Diamond Head Classic and putting the entire WCC at real risk of being a one-bid league. Well... 24 hours later they suffered another terrible loss, this time to Hawaii. On one hand, they fell on a jumper with 1.4 seconds left by Nebraska transfer Christian Standhardinger, but on the other hand they were legitimately outplayed. The Gaels actually shot 48% on threes and still lost. They committed 17 turnovers and allowed Hawaii to earn 29 free throws. They were just sloppy and slow.

The Gaels are 45th in Pomeroy and 40th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, so they're good enough to earn an at-large bid, but their resume is a mess. As I said yesterday, wins over teams like Boise State (on the road) and Louisiana Tech will impress the computers a whole lot more than they'll impress the Selection Committee. To learn an at-large bid (even assuming that they beat George Mason in their final game in Hawaii) they're going to have to beat Gonzaga at least once and they're going to have to go at least 13-5 in conference play. And even that might not be enough.

As for Hawaii, they only went 10-8 in their first season in the Big West, but look to be much more of a contender in their second season in the league. UC Irvine is still the favorite, in my opinion, but you can make a case that UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara and Hawaii have been the three clear best teams in the league so far.

Notre Dame Loses Cam Biedschied To Transfer The decision by Cam Biedshied to redshirt this season was confusing originally (you can see my take on it at the time here), but it makes a lot more sense now. He is leaving the school to go play elsewhere. The timing is particularly brutal, as folks in the media had been discussing the possibility of the Irish pulling his redshirt to help take up some of the missing minutes of Jerian Grant, who is done for (at least) the season. Assuming that Grant leaves at the end of the season also, that makes two key players that the Notre Dame program will lose to transfer in two days. Throwing in the epic collapse to Ohio State on Saturday (where it turns out the Notre Dame players already knew it would be Jerian Grant's last game, which makes the loss even more painful) and it's been a brutal few days for the Notre Dame program.

Providence Loses Its Entire Freshman Class Highly rated recruits not panning out due to suspensions and/or injuries has become an epidemic at Providence under Ed Cooley. The latest problems are Brandon Austin and Rodney Bullock, their two scholarship freshman. Both had been suspended, and it's now official that they won't play this season. Providence is hanging around near the bubble, but there will be no relief to a roster that was made so thin after the Kris Dunn season-ending injury.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Morning News: Jerian Grant Done For The Season, California Has A Bad Day, St Mary's Has A Terrible Loss, USC Upsets Dayton & Langston Hall Stuns Ole Miss

This picture of Jerian Grant was taken during the Ohio State game on Saturday.

Jerian Grant Done For The Season This news came out of nowhere on Sunday. Jerian Grant played on Saturday for Notre Dame, but on Sunday the semester changed and he was no longer academically eligible. Grant was leading the team in points, assists and steals per game, so this is a brutal loss for a team that already would have been headed to the NIT if the season ended now. With him gone, I can say that it's pretty likely that the Irish will drop out of my bracket projection this week (I had them in the last at-large team in yesterday's bracket).

We also need to consider next season here, as Grant has more eligibility remaining. It seems pretty likely at this point that he'll transfer for his final year of eligibility.

California Has A Bad Day California lost to Creighton by 14 points here, which is bad enough, but the day got even worse than that for the Golden Bears. Before the game even tipped, they got news that Ricky Kreklow will be out for 4-6 weeks. And one of the players who is expected to eat a lot of Kreklow's minutes? That would be Jabari Byrd, who suffered a sprained ankle during the Creighton game and might also miss some time. California is already a team I had narrowly out of the NCAA Tournament, and this just makes me more confident in that projection. They're going to have to get to at least 10 wins in the Pac-12 just to be taken seriously as a bubble team.

Creighton is a team without much of a resume so far (wins over California and Arizona State along with a loss to George Washington), but they're playing very well. Depending on which computer rating you prefer, they're somewhere around the 20th best team in the country (Pomeroy actually has them 15th). The good news is that they're in the Big East rather than the Missouri Valley, so they'll have plenty of chances to build on that resume.

Saint Mary's Suffers A Terrible Loss To South Carolina I talked yesterday about the WCC's terrible Saturday and how it was likely going to cost the league a third NCAA Tournament bid. Well... how about a one bid WCC? Saint Mary's started this game like they'd been spending too much time on the Hawaii beaches. 10:30 into the game they were down 16-8, and they were down by 12 points just a few minutes later. They managed to pull the game into a tie in the second half, but just couldn't get over the top. More than anything, the Gaels just couldn't stop dribble penetration. It seemed like the South Carolina guards were playing at a faster speed, and they could get to the basket at will.

Saint Mary's is at risk of suffering from the same thing I talked about with #2BidIvy a couple of days ago: their resume is a lot stronger than the Selection Committee is going to think it is. They beat Boise State on the road as well as Louisiana Tech, North Dakota State and Akron at home. Those are all nice wins. The Sagarin PURE_ELO numbers haven't been updated this morning as this post goes live, but they were 10th coming into Sunday. But it's possible that none of those will be RPI Top 50 victories, and that's what the Selection Committee focuses on. And now they're stuck in the consolation bracket of the Diamond Head Classic. The Gaels are going to have to beat Gonzaga at least once and they're going to need a gaudy won-loss record to earn an at-large bid.

USC Upsets Dayton In Overtime Dayton had a brutal shooting day here, hitting 26% behind the arc and finishing with a 41.8 eFG%. That's their worst shooting day of the season (their previous worst eFG% was 47.7% in that ugly 56-46 win over Delaware State). The star for USC was Byron Wesley, who led all scorers with 26 points. Interestingly, it was Pe'Shon Howard who hit the game-winning three-pointer. And yes, that's the same Pe'Shon Howard who blew up in his first month as a freshman with Maryland back in 2010 and then disappeared for three years. He's not going to be one of the better players in the Pac-12 this season, but he is having the best season of his collegiate career so far.

Dayton has quality victories over Gonzaga and California, but they now also have bad losses to Illinois State and USC. They will be underdogs in their final non-conference game as well, a virtual no-win situation on the road at Ole Miss. So they're going to probably enter Atlantic Ten play looking up at the Field of 68, and will have to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament from there.

Langston Hall's Three Stuns Ole Miss The Ole Miss Rebels fought all the way back from a 16 point second half deficit, and it was Marshall Henderson (4-for-14 behind the arc for the day) who hit the three-pointer to tie the game late. But it was Langston Hall (17 points and 6 assists) who played the hero and hit the game-winning three-pointer with 0.6 seconds left.

Mississippi came into this game 8-2, but a very soft 8-2. Their best win came over Penn State, and they had a loss to Kansas State. With this loss, even a win over Dayton in a couple of weeks won't be sufficient to salvage their non-conference performance. They will have to get to at least 10-8 in SEC play to be a serious contender for an at-large bid.

Mercer has been my pick to win the Atlantic Sun since April, and they are quietly putting together a pretty good resume out of a one-bid league. They have wins over Mississippi, Seton Hall, Valparaiso and Denver, along with iffy losses to Ohio and Evansville. I have them projected as a 15 seed now, but keep in mind that a few conference favorites always fall during Championship Week. If Mercer keeps up this level of play, they'll have a good case for a 14 seed and might even contend for a 13 seed. So this is a team that might have a real chance to win a game in the Round of 64 in March.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Morning News: New Bracket, Kansas Routs Georgetown, WCC's Bad Day, Illini Stun Mizzou, And Much More

The shortest and tallest players in Division I basketball met on Saturday. That's 5'4" Charles Webb next to 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye

New Bracket Projection It's Sunday, so a new bracket is posted. There aren't too many changes this week, besides teams moving up or down a line. The one change to the Field of 68 is Stony Brook replacing Vermont as the favorite in the America East.

Kansas Routs Georgetown This dominant performance should quiet down the media that panicked over Kansas suffering three losses (all to tourney teams, all away from home, and all competitive in the final minute, as I pointed out a few days ago). Joel Embiid had another big game for the Jayhawks, though the story was probably Naadir Thorpe having his best game at point guard this season (4-for-6 from the field, 4 assists, 0 turnovers). Point guard play and outside shooting were their two biggest flaws, and one of those two appears to be healing. Kansas remains, in my opinion, the Big 12 favorite.

Georgetown is going to enter Big East play with a fairly putrid resume. They probably wouldn't be an at-large bid if the season ended now, honestly. They have a loss to Northeastern and their only quality win came over VCU. But this is a team much better than their resume. This was a poor performance (as was that clunker against Northeastern), but they're better than they have played thus far. They have some really nice low post scorers (Josh Smith's production so far has been very underrated - he's actually shooting 70% from the field).

The biggest problem for Georgetown has been Markel Starks struggling to score. He's the leading shot-taker on the team, yet his eFG% has dropped from 55.0% last season to 46.4% this year. There's no reason after two very efficient offensive seasons for his shot to completely disappear like this. Either he needs to figure out his shot or he needs to distribute the ball more to the big men.

More Bad News For The WCC As Gonzaga Loses To Kansas State A conference like the WCC needs a bunch of quality wins in non-conference play in order to be able to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament. But BYU, St. Mary's and Gonzaga set themselves up with relatively weak schedules and have often not been able to take advantage of their few quality opponents anyway. The conference might struggle to even get two bids in March. Throw in BYU's crushing loss to Oregon (the Ducks led 2-0, and then didn't have another lead until the final minute of overtime... but won), and this was just a horrible Saturday for the WCC.

Gonzaga, in particular, does not have the quality wins that we're used to them having at this point in the season. They have beaten Arkansas and West Virginia, but there's a good chance that neither will be in the RPI Top 50. Without a win over Memphis in February, we actually might have to start talking about Gonzaga as a bubble team. They will certainly need to hope that the injury Sam Dower sustained is not serious.

Kansas State has been slowly pulling things together after the terrible first three weeks to their season. This win was a Bruce Weber special (only 4 turnovers as a team), and if they can knock off George Washington on New Year's Eve then we might actually be able to start talking about them as an at-large contender again. They're going to need more than a win over Gonzaga to make up for losses to Northern Colorado and Charlotte, though.

Illinois Stuns Missouri These Illinois/Missouri games are always fun, and the finish to this one was fantastic. Earnest Ross, Jon Ekey and Jabari Brown traded clutch three-pointers before Tracy Abrams somehow made lemonade out of the lemons of a broken play and got to the line with 4.6 seconds left. His two free throws gave Illinois their final one point margin. This ended Missouri's undefeated season, dropping the number of national undefeateds to only ten by the end of the day.

Despite the 10-0 start to the season, Missouri's resume is soft. The victory over UCLA is their only over a likely RPI Top 50 opponent (West Virginia also has a chance to sneak into the Top 50). If they fall on the road to NC State next weekend, their non-conference slate will turn from impressive to mediocre in two games. Only getting one game apiece against Kentucky and Florida (with the Florida game on the road) is a problem as well - it means Mizzou has a reasonable chance of hitting the SEC tournament without a single premier scalp.

Unless they are upset by Illinois-Chicago, Illinois will end non-conference play 11-2, with this win to go with a loss to Georgia Tech. Considering the strength of the Big Ten, a 9-9 (or even 8-10) conference record for Illinois will get them in the bubble discussion.

Markel Brown Leads Oklahoma State Over Colorado Oklahoma State has consistently struggled with rebounding the past few seasons, and that nearly cost them a loss to Colorado here. The Buffaloes had a 42.9 OR%, compared to a 20.7% for Oklahoma State. Josh Scott led the way with 5 offensive rebounds. The key for the Cowboys was Markel Brown, who led all scorers with 23 points and 11 rebounds. Marcus Smart was quiet, in part because he was #autobenched for the final 7 minutes of the half with 2 fouls (a futile coaching decision, as he didn't commit a single foul in the second half).

It's pretty clear that Kansas and Oklahoma State are the class of the Big 12. Rebounding will probably be the primary concern for Oklahoma State in those games, while perimeter offensive play against the aggressive OSU defense will probably be the primary concern for Kansas. The big question at this point has to be which team is expected to improve more by March. As I've made clear, I think that team is Kansas. But Oklahoma State could fail to win the Big 12 and still earn a 2 or 3 seed in March.

This was a missed opportunity for Colorado, but after the Kansas victory it doesn't matter as much. They could potentially earn an at-large bid by only going 9-9 in Pac-12 play, though a 10-8 record will put them in a much better position.

UMass Struggles Mightily Against Florida State One reason why 40-0 is basically impossible nowadays? Because even if you're the better team in every game, there are going to be some days where everything goes wrong. And that was basically what ended UMass's undefeated season yesterday. They were 1-for-14 behind the arc, 58% at the line and committed 17 turnovers. Even Chaz Williams was a mess (4-for-14 from the field, 3 assists, 4 turnovers). My recommendation after games like this is just to remind people not to judge a team on a game like this. UMass stunk yesterday, but that's not who they'll be the rest of the season. They're still a very good team off to a great start to this season.

After three straight losses against quality opponents (all tight games), Florida State really needed this win to settle down their at-large resume. Barring an upset against Charleston Southern, they should be in good shape for an at-large bid with a 10-8 ACC record. If they finish 9-9, they'll probably need a win or two in the ACC tournament to lock up that bid.

Cameron Bairstow And New Mexico Pull Away From Marquette Late Alex Kirk is the best known New Mexico big man, and he had carried the team at times this season, but was ineffective and saddled with foul trouble against Marquette. It was Cameron Bairstow who led the way for New Mexico with 20 points and 10 rebounds. Bairstow and Kirk also combined to control Marquette's bigs, and to force Marquette's perimeter players to try to generate all of the offense. Marquette is not a good jump shooting team, and they took far too many jump shots in this game.

Marquette has very quietly put together a fairly poor resume. They don't have any bad losses, but they don't have any good wins either. If they go 9-9 in Big East play they'll probably need to win a couple of wins in the Big East tournament just to avoid the NIT. They'll need to reach 10-8 or even 11-7 in Big East play to be safe.

With the Mountain West down this season, New Mexico has two important wins out of conference (Marquette and Cincinnati), that will give them some breathing room in conference play. Though with the level of the league this season, they might need to get to 12 conference wins before they can stop worrying about the bubble.

Notre Dame Suffers A Soul Crushing Loss To Ohio State On a busy day of basketball like this, I generally wouldn't bother to bring up Ohio State beating Notre Dame. They were supposed to win this game, after all. But the Irish seemed to have this game in hand late.  They actually led by 8 points with just under a minute to go, but had just lost Eric Atkins to a foul out. And after Atkins went out, the Irish did not have a ball handler who could handle the Ohio State press/trap, and they melted down. They committed four turnovers in the final minute, and it was Aaron Craft who had the fabulous drive and assist to pull the Buckeyes into the lead, and then forced the turnover on the other end of the court to nearly ice the game.

The Irish are really not a bad team at all. The panic about them is unwarranted, and they're clearly bubble quality. But these tough losses are adding up, and the Irish are going to need to get to at least 9-9 in ACC play to earn an at-large bid. They might even need to get to 10-8.

Michigan Bounces Back, Stanford Can't Get Off The Bubble The media told us that Johnny Dawkins had saved his job after the UConn win, though it's not clear if he's lost it again after the Michigan loss. They look like a classic bubble team and, as I've said repeatedly since the Aaron Bright injury, I just don't think that they have the depth to win consistently enough to earn that at-large bid. As for Michigan, after two straight close losses against quality opponents, they bounced back and grabbed a quality victory here. With this and the win over Florida State balancing out the loss to Charlotte, they probably don't have to worry about the bubble for now. But they still seem a step behind the four teams atop the Big Ten. At this point, it's hard to see them finishing better than fifth in the conference.

W-12 BP68

Interestingly enough, the biggest news this week for the bracket probably happened off the court. The news that PJ Hairston is officially done for the season probably puts a stake through the heart of North Carolina's ACC title hopes. It also provides a boost to Duke, Syracuse, and the other top ACC teams. Had North Carolina fallen to Davidson, we might have started to talk about North Carolina as an at-large team, though I doubt we'll ever really get there. But if UNC continues to mix big wins with bad losses, it will be interesting to see if the Selection Committee gives the benefit of the doubt to them that they didn't give to Virginia last season.

The most controversial team in my bracket the past couple of weeks has been Kansas at #1 overall, which doesn't mean I necessarily think they'll be the #1 overall seed but that they're the safest 1 seed. That should probably be less controversial after the way they've played over the last week. It's become very clear that they're already one of the six or seven best teams in the country, and they're just going to get better. And I don't think that they have the competition in their league that the top Big Ten teams have.

The most difficult of the major conferences to pick is the Big East. At this point, there simply isn't an obvious elite team to project as a 2 or 3 seed. I think Georgetown, Villanova, Creighton and Marquette are all reasonable selections here. The best team so far has probably been Villanova. But the best team in March? I still think it will be Georgetown. But if you ask me how much confidence I have in that projection? Not much.

Interestingly, not a single at-large team is changing from the bracket this week. Teams like Clemson and Notre Dame slid right down to the bottom of the at-large section of the bracket, but at this point I think they have a better chance of turning things around than a team like SMU or Oklahoma has of putting together an at-large equality resume.

The one change to the Field of 68 comes from the automatic bids, where Stony Brook replaces Vermont as the America East favorite.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. Florida

3. Oklahoma State
3. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
4. Villanova
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Syracuse

5. UConn
5. Creighton
5. North Carolina
5. Iowa State

6. Pittsburgh
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Michigan
6. St. Louis

7. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
7. Memphis
7. Marquette
7. Oregon

8. UMass
8. Baylor
8. Colorado
8. Florida State

9. Virginia
9. UCLA
9. San Diego State
9. Indiana

10. Cincinnati
10. Boise State
10. LSU
10. Minnesota

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Tennessee
11. Saint Mary's
11. Missouri

12. Dayton
12. Butler
12. Clemson
12. Notre Dame
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. BRYANT (NEC)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Maryland, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah State, Arizona State, California, Stanford, Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, Wake Forest, George Washington, Richmond, Purdue, Kansas State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Indiana State, UNLV, Utah, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Central Florida, South Florida, Temple, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, DePaul, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Akron, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Texas A&M

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Morning News: PJ Hairston Is Done, SMU Creeps Closer To An At-Large, And #2BidIvy

This is what PJ Hairston will be wearing on the bench the rest of the season.

PJ Hairston's Career At North Carolina Is Over The next time we see PJ Hairston play will be professionally, as his career at North Carolina is done. There has been a lot of confusion over the Hairston case, as many in the media had been blaming the NCAA for dragging their feet. In reality, the NCAA never had a chance to rule on Hairston (and never will). North Carolina was conducting their own investigation, after which they concluded yesterday that they would not ask the NCAA to reinstate Hairston. Why would they not try? Presumably they think they're going to lose, and would prefer not to bring more light of day to the story.

From a purely basketball perspective, this is big news. Hairston was far and away the best player on UNC last season. With the rapid improvement of Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson and others, this UNC team could have contended for an ACC title and a 1 or 2 seed in March. It's not totally out of the question now, but the Tar Heels have to be considered a little bit of a long shot. They need a second shooter other than Marcus Paige. Leslie McDonald showed flashes of a decent shot in his season debut against Texas, but it's not unlikely that he'll regress back to last season's shooting form over a larger sample size.

I'm not going to stand in moral judgment of players. I hate when sportswriters get all self-righteous. We've all done dumb things. But these particular dumb acts by PJ Hairston could end up swinging the 2014 ACC title.

SMU Creeps Closer To An At-Large Bid Depending on where you looked, SMU was either the favorite or the underdog at Wyoming. Pomeroy had them a 1 point favorite, though Vegas had them a very slight underdog. Either way, this win isn't a big surprise, but it's an important piece of a quietly solid non-conference performance by SMU. They don't have any wins over likely RPI Top 50 opponents, but their worst loss only came to Arkansas. Barring a big upset to Hofstra, they will finish non-conference play 11-2, and their computer numbers are solid. Assuming that they go 10-8 or 11-7 in AAC play, their RPI will be right around 50th in the country and they'll at least be in the bubble mix in February and March.

Wyoming is 7-4, but they're 0-4 against the Pomeroy Top 150. This is a transition year for them, as they should be better next year. Larry Nance, Jr is a player who should be better known, and if Wyoming can improve throughout this season and become a real Mountain West contender next season, he could finally break through onto the national radar.

Princeton Crushes Pacific It's a slow college basketball night. I figured I'd talk briefly about the #2BidIvy movement. Could either Princeton or Harvard be the Ivy League's first ever at-large team? Both teams are 9-1, with their only loss coming on the road against a quality opponent (Princeton fell to Butler, Harvard fell to Colorado). Princeton even has the excuse that they were missing their best player (TJ Bray) for their loss, not that the Selection Committee will know or care. The problem (and this is the reason why the league failed to get a second bid when Harvard probably deserved it in 2011) is that these teams just don't have "quality" wins. Unless Harvard beats UConn, the Ivy League has a good chance of finishing the season without a single team earning a non-conference RPI Top 50 win.

If the Selection Committee looked at resumes in the rational, Sagarin PURE_ELO way, they'd recognize that a road win over a team like Penn State is harder to get than a home win over most teams ranked narrowly inside the RPI Top 50. But that's not how the Selection Committee thinks. So unless Harvard beats UConn, I just find it almost impossible to believe that the Ivy League will get a second bid to the 2014 NCAA Tournament.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Morning News: Duke Runs Away From UCLA, Clemson Suffers A Terrible Loss, USC's At-Large Hopes Basically Over

Kyle Anderson had a great game, but Jabari Parker got the final laugh.

Duke Runs Away From UCLA In The Second Half UCLA couldn't miss a shot early in this game, but their jump shooting failed them in the second half. They turned the game into a three-point shooting contest, and that's usually not the correct strategy to use against Duke. And while it's easy to draw narratives from a game like this, the reality is that jump shooting was the difference. Early in the second half, UCLA was 8-for-12 behind the arc and winning by 1 point. They missed their final 11 three-pointers, and were outscored by 18 points over that stretch. In other words, UCLA would have won this game if they kept hitting 2/3rds of their three-pointers... but they were fairly unlikely to continue hitting 2/3rds of their three-pointers.

The best player in this game was, surprisingly, Kyle Anderson. Duke did a good job of denying Jordan Adams, and he finished with a quiet 10 points and 5 rebounds, but Anderson nearly had a triple double (15 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, 5 steals). Duke's perimeter guys seemed to struggle with his length. Anderson is not a player who beats you with his speed (to say the least), but he is deliberate and smooth with the ball, and Duke didn't know what to do about him.

Duke was due for a big win. They came into this game with a fairly mediocre resume (wins over Michigan and Alabama). but with a rapidly improving defense they're looking a lot more like the top ten team they seemed to be preseason. They are still very much in play for a 1 seed in March if they can win at least a share of the ACC regular season title and the ACC tournament title.

UCLA is now 8 days away from a key home game against Alabama. UCLA is good enough that they should be in the NCAA Tournament, but a loss to Alabama would make their non-conference slate a wash. They'll have to get to at least 10-8 in Pac-12 play just to get an at-large bid.

Clemson Suffers A Terrible Loss Auburn is a major conference team, so we don't think of them as a "terrible" loss, but this is a terrible loss. Auburn is a guarantee to finish outside the RPI Top 100, and have a good chance of finishing outside the Top 200. Even after this win they are 198th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 208th in Pomeroy. This is a killer loss for Clemson's computer numbers, and comes off another mediocre loss (Arkansas).

Clemson is a very strong defensive team, but they're a very bad offensive team. And the problem is, it's hard for them to put up points in bunches, even against a bad team like Auburn. They didn't have a ton of turnovers, they didn't put Auburn on the line all game, they didn't get destroyed on the glass or behind the arc... they just ended up in a grind of a game against a bad team and ended up coming up two points short.

Clemson will finish non-conference play without a quality victory. They'll get Duke, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Florida State at home this season, so they'll have chances for quality victories, but they'll probably need to get to 10-8 in conference play to avoid the NIT.

USC's At-Large Hopes Over Until Further Notice USC had already lost to Wake Forest and Utah State, but last night's loss to Long Beach State is significantly worse. Their offense sputtered, managing only 1.00 PPP against a team that hadn't beaten a Division I opponent prior to last night. The closest thing USC has to a quality victory was a win over Xavier, a team unlikely to crack the RPI Top 50.

After January 15th, I include the "full bubble" in my bracket projections, where every team that hasn't yet been mathematically eliminated (in my opinion) from the NCAA Tournament is listed. And in that first bracket, USC will be listed since it is mathematically possible for them to run off 10 straight Pac-12 wins and get back on the bubble. But let's be realistic, USC isn't going to a postseason tournament in 2014.

In Long Beach State's defense, they're pretty good for a team that was 0-9 against Division I opponents. They had played a ridiculously tough schedule and had played a lot of games close (lost in 2OT to Washington, lost by 6 on a neutral court vs VCU, lost by 10 at NC State). It wouldn't be a shock if Dan Monson can pull this team together in time to contend near the top of the Big West.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Morning News: Texas Wins Ugly, Tennessee's Shooting Lets Them Down, UConn Unbeaten No More

Leslie McDonald returned for the Tar Heels last night, but PJ Hairston might miss the whole season.

Texas Wins Ugly Over North Carolina Since this game happened at a fast tempo (82 possessions), it was immune to criticism from the Pacist media, but it was horrible basketball all around. Neither offense had any idea what they were doing, although Texas was particularly terrible. The Longhorns have no ball movement or off-the-ball player movement, and any possession that wasn't in transition ended up as a rushed jump shoot or a driving circus shot. Most of their offense came via offensive rebounds, foul shots and transition. In all, this game featured 55 fouls, 80 free throws and 35 offensive rebounds.

The fact that this game was terribly ugly is why Texas fans shouldn't get too excited. If they face a team that limits transition opportunities and can control the defensive glass, Texas is going to have a really tough time trying to score. So while they're athletic, I just don't see how the Longhorns can win games consistently enough to get into the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels got Leslie McDonald back for this game, but PJ Hairston remains a bit question mark. Their best player last season, Hairston is the player who could turn this team into the ACC champ. But for now, UNC has not appealed to the NCAA to get him reinstated. Hopefully this can all get resolved soon, and either Hairston will be back or we'll know for certain that he's done for the season.

Tennessee's Shooting Lets Them Down Vs NC State Tennessee fought hard in the second half of this game, crawling back from a 17 point deficit to get close enough that they were fouling in the final 30 seconds. And this was a physical game, with two big front lines going at each other. Jeronne Maymon had 10 offensive rebounds by himself, while NC State blocked 12 shots. In the end, the difference was an atrocious jump shooting night for the Vols (3-for-24 behind the arc). This is the second time this season that they have doomed themselves with three-point bricks (they shot 3-for-21 in their loss to UTEP a couple of weeks ago).

This is not a good loss for Tennessee, but there's no reason for panic. First of all, they'll get a chance for a quality win over Virginia on December 30th (and they've already beaten Xavier). Second of all, the tail end of their regular season schedule is very soft. Don't be surprised if they run the table late and finish with something like a 12-6 record in the SEC. The Vols are a good team, even if they sometimes shoot themselves out of games.

NC State has quietly won six straight games, including this win and a win over Northwestern. They do have a loss to NC Central, though. And when you throw in the fact that Northwestern stinks this year and that Tennessee would have won this game easily if they'd shot anywhere near their season average behind the arc, I don't think think we should be getting too excited about the Wolfpack just yet. Over the next two weeks or so, they have great opportunities to build their resume with home games against Missouri and Pittsburgh. If they're going to make a run at getting onto the bubble, they really have to win at least one of those two games.

Stanford Ends UConn's Unbeaten Run It's totally weird how there seems to be no correlation between clutch wins in the past and clutch wins in the future, huh? After starting the season 4-0 in games decided by two points or less and with Shabazz Napier getting a lot of media buzz for NPOY, UConn looked absolutely and completely lost in the final seconds of this game, ending up with an awkward two point loss. The Huskies just seemed to be off all night, as their entire backcourt was weirdly inefficient and quiet.

On a side note, those who follow me on twitter saw me make fun of Jeff Borzello's article on CBS that was published around 7 hours before this game tipped off. He listed the "next possible loss" for each of the 13 remaining undefeated teams, and I pointed out that teams don't only lose when they're in toss-up games or games they're supposed to lose. In fact, I said I could virtually guarantee that at least one of those teams would lose before their next "possible loss". But now you'll notice that despite the title and URL talking about 13 teams, only 12 are listed. The UConn section (which said their next "possible" loss was their game against SMU) has been deleted, without an editor's note or even a timestamp saying that the article had been changed.

That whole charade is why I bring up writers like Jeff Goodman that say stupid things early in the season and then deny them later (like Baylor being better than Kansas... anybody see the score of the Baylor game last night?). National sportswriters and sports websites simply whitewash this stuff, and delete their old dumb assertions.

So to be clear, I never do that here. When I get a team wrong, you can still see it. You can still see my preseason bracket projection back from April here, which as far as I know is the first full bracket projection anybody in the country put out for the 2013-14 season. I nailed some teams (Villanova, Michigan, North Dakota State), get an excuse on some (I thought Vander Blue would be back for Marquette), but also whiffed on others (Syracuse, Kansas State, Boston College). You'll never see me whitewash my previous posts, which is why I'm careful not to make stupid assertions with certainty.

On a post-rant side note, I had dropped Stanford out of my bracket projection last week because of the season-ending injury to Aaron Bright, and I do think that depth is still a major concern (four of five starters played at least 38 minutes), but this win will help keep them on the bubble a while longer. The key with that lack of depth is going to be staying healthy and winning consistently enough to get to at least 10-8 in Pac-12 play.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Morning News: Pacist Media Rips Pitt, Florida Escapes Memphis, New Mexico St Stuns New Mexico & Wichita St Avoid A Letdown

The media's characterization of slow tempo basketball games.

Pacist Media Rips Pittsburgh If you follow me on twitter, you knew that a mini-rant was coming about the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game. This game was low-scoring (87 total points), and twitter was blowing up with every member of the media complaining how horrible the game was and how they wanted the refs to put everybody out of their misery. The game was single-handedly ruining their love for basketball. Pittsburgh was putrid, and this game proved that they aren't any good and they were an overrated fraud that haven't beaten anybody.

Of course,  as I've explained before, if a game has an extreme score it's much more likely to be due to tempo than to offense or defense. And that was the case here. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati had 48 possessions, which adds up to 0.91 PPP. So the offenses were below average, but not particularly awful. There will be more than 1000 Division I games this season with worse offense. A few weeks ago, Duke and Alabama played a 74-64 game in the same arena that was worse offensively (0.86 PPP). The difference was Duke/Alabama had 80 possessions, while Pittsburgh/Cincy was tied for the fewest possessions of any Division I game all season long. In fact, it's surely the slowest game almost anybody has watched this season, since the only two games with 50 or fewer possessions in Division I this season both involved Delaware State (vs Clemson, vs Dayton).

Was the media whining that Duke/Alabama was the worst offensive game they've ever seen? That the refs should cancel it? That it was ruining their love for basketball? That it proved Duke was a fraud that couldn't score against a decent defense? They didn't? Huh. I guess they're Pacist.

Anyway, to get briefly back to Pitt here... are they a fraud? No. They remain under-ranked. They've already crushed a team that is basically as good as Cincinnati in Stanford (I don't understand why playing Cincy on a neutral floor is "playing somebody" while playing Stanford on a neutral floor in the same city is not), and remain 12th in Pomeroy and 17th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Are they the 12th best team? I don't think so. I currently have them as a 5 seed in my bracket, and they're at risk of falling to a 6 next week. But more likely than not they're a Top 25 team. But the Pacist media is going to keep them out of the Top 25 as long as they can. I wouldn't be surprised if it's February before they finally get into the Top 25.

Florida Escapes Memphis Once again, Florida got off to a really nice start against a good team that started clawing its way back. Memphis had a chance in the final minutes, but just couldn't quite get over the hump. Patric Young was able to physically control the paint, but Memphis was able to get back into the game by forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. These second half collapses are a bit worrying for Florida, though. They're mostly winning close games this season after being unable to win a close game last year (always weird how a random statistical event like luck in close games doesn't correlate from one season to the next, huh?), but Florida would be a real juggernaut if they could maintain these high levels of play for 40 full minutes.

This is a tough missed opportunity for Memphis, but they impressed again. You can make a case for Memphis being a Top 10 or 15 team in the nation. With home games remaining against Louisville, UConn and Gonzaga, they'll have plenty of chances to add onto their win over Oklahoma State.

New Mexico State Stuns Ice Cold New Mexico New Mexico struggled to find their shooting stroke all night, failing to hit a three-pointer while falling 67-61 to in-state rival New Mexico State. Coming off a blowout loss to Kansas, it's a continuation of a disappointing non-conference season for the Lobos. A win over Cincinnati is their only against a likely RPI Top 50 opponent, and now they have a potentially bad loss. New Mexico is still a team good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but they're going to need to earn it in a down Mountain West. There won't be the big margin for error in that league that there was the past couple of seasons.

New Mexico State is a team that really has no chance at an at-large bid primarily because the WAC is so incredibly awful. It's like playing in the Big South Conference - there are no quality wins, and every loss is a bad loss. This is a nice win, but it will be their only quality win before Selection Sunday. That said, New Mexico State should cruise to the WAC title, and Sim Bhullar And Friends will be a mystery team that is going to be a scary Round of 64 opponent in March.

Wichita State Avoids A Letdown Vs Alabama After a 10-0 start that included recent victories over Tennessee, St. Louis and BYU, Wichita State would have been forgiven for a letdown game on the road against a feisty Alabama squad. And this game was close throughout, but Wichita State locked down defensively in the final couple of minutes to escape with the five point victory. Ron Baker was relatively quiet, and it was Cleanthony Early leading all scorers with 26 points.

I've talked many times about how much of a ridiculous long shot it is for any BCS conference team to go 40-0. Wichita State isn't going 40-0 either. But they're not in a BCS conference, and they're the one team now with a plausible hope of going undefeated for the regular season (31-0). While Arizona is the second most likely team to get to 31-0 (0.4%), Wichita State's odds are now at 7.2% according to Pomeroy and 8.1% according to Sagarin. Both ratings project only two regular season losses as the most likely scenario. Wichita State is a really good team that is going to have a really shiny won-loss record in March. They are much, much better than the squad that made the Final Four last season, and it's time to start talking about them as a plausible 2 or 3 seed in March.

As for Alabama, they just cannot get over the hump against a quality team. They have had a number of close losses, and the result is that their resume is horrible even though they're a bubble quality team. A run for an at-large bid is still not out of the question, but unless they beat both Xavier and UCLA over the next two weeks, they're going to need to get to at least 11-7 in SEC play.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Morning News: Upset Of The Year? Also, Jarrod Shaw Suspension & Talking Kansas/Baylor

We can't believe it either, guys.

UTEP Suffers Perhaps The Upset Of The Year It was only me and a handful of parents of players watching the end of UTEP/New Orleans, but UTEP just might have suffered what will end up the worst loss of the season. And yes, their leading scorer (McKenzie Moore) was suspended. But no, that's not an excuse. New Orleans had not won a road game in two years and hadn't won a game against any Division I opponent since beating Texas-Pan American in overtime on February 6th. They hadn't beaten a team in the Pomeroy Top 250 since December 2nd, 2009 (yes, they took two years off from Division I basketball, but still...). Vegas didn't even bother having a line on this game (as far as I could find), but Pomeroy had UTEP a 23 point favorite. To put that in perspective, that's what #1 Arizona would be favored by (+/- 1 point) at home against Yale.

Tim Floyd actually was the head coach of New Orleans a long time ago, from 1988 through 1994. But his old program has probably ended whatever slim at-large chances UTEP had. They came into this game having only lost to Kansas, Iowa and New Mexico State (twice), with a nice win over Tennessee. In fact, they had almost beaten Kansas, losing only by four. But it's pretty tough to overcome a loss to Pomeroy #347. Just a brutal, horrible result for UTEP.

As for New Orleans, I had to create a post tag for you for the first time, and you just collected your first victory over a Division I opponent this season. Congratulations! Enjoy this one, because it will be the highlight of your season.

Jarrod Shaw Suspended Indefinitely For Utah State Jarrod Shaw has been suspended for a violation of team rules. As Shaw is the team's leader in points (16.1) and rebounds (7.8) per game, this is a pretty significant loss. Utah State did not have a Tournament resume yet (no wins over likely RPI Top 50 opponents, along with losses to BYU and Pacific), but they were a bubble quality team. They were going to have a chance to put themselves on the bubble in Mountain West play. Unless Shaw comes back soon, however, they might be able to forget about that.

Improperly Rated: Kansas And Baylor Editions On a slow news day, I wanted to briefly touch on the ratings of Baylor and Kansas. Jeff Goodman isn't the only major media personality to argue that Baylor has been better this season so far, he's just the one I like to make fun of because he's famous for doing a terrible job of rating teams in November and December and then denying that he was ever so wrong when February rolls around. Saying Baylor has a better resume than Kansas so far? Probably true. But that they've played better? Absolutely not, and it's not even close.

As I talk about all the time, there is a difference between resumes and team quality. In the long run, all teams are going to win approximately 50% of games that come down to the final minute - I don't care how clutch or un-clutch they are. So teams that have won a bunch of close games get overrated while teams that have lost a bunch of close games will be underrated.

In this case, Kansas has two impressive double-digit victories (Duke and New Mexico), but also has three losses to elite teams, by an average of 4.3 points per game. A few balls bounce the other way? Kansas is 10-0 against a brutal schedule, and Jeff Goodman is telling us that anybody that doesn't have the Jayhawks #1 in the country is a moron. What about Baylor? They beat Kentucky, though the margin of KU's two big victories make those wins more impressive. Baylor also beat Charleston Southern by 5, South Carolina by 2 and Dayton by 1. They're a few bounces of the ball from being 5-5 and considered an NIT team.
Kansas is an elite team that will contend for a 1 seed in March. The media may be killing them now, but they'll be singing a very different tune once February rolls around and Kansas's luck in close games starts to even out.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Morning News: Syracuse Escapes The Garden, Stephen F Austin Impressing, Revisiting Undefeated Teams

Syracuse/St. John's was very physical all game long.

Syracuse Escapes St. John's In The Garden Syracuse came into this game something of a question mark. They had a high ranking, but hadn't played a road game and hadn't played a team rated higher than 30th in Pomeroy. St. John's isn't a Top 30 team either, but this was a true road game, with one of the best St. John's crowds I've ever heard (these Madison Square Garden games often have a tendency to feel something like neutral court games for the Johnnies). But with the offense stagnating and St. John's pulling into the lead late in the second half, CJ Fair hit two clutch jumpers to lead Syracuse to a huge victory.

St. John's will feel like they missed a big opportunity here. Over the final 5:30 they shot 0-for-10 from the field, scoring a brutal 0.3 PPP. It didn't come completely out of nowhere, though, as the game slowed to a half court battle, which was always to the advantage of Syracuse. When St. John's was at their best in this game, it was when they were getting out in transition and not allowing Syracuse to set up their zone.

How legit is Syracuse? I still think they're overrated, but not as much as they seemed to be preseason. The emergence of Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney has made this Syracuse offense much more explosive than it seemed likely preseason. At this point, they have to be considered one of the contenders in a wide open ACC race.

This win would have done a lot to put St. John's on the at-large radar. The loss means that they'll enter Big East play without a quality victory, and will need to go at least 9-9 in conference play to have a good chance at an at-large bid. At this point, I'd bet against it.

Stephen F Austin Making Some Noise It was a bit of a slow day of college basketball, which is why I'm talking about this game. But it gives a good opportunity to talk about a Stephen  F Austin team that is getting my attention. The Lumberjacks lost their coach during the offseason to Texas State (and no, I don't understand why he would do that voluntarily... I don't see how that's an improvement), but Brad Underwood has done a fantastic job so far. Driven by a strong, aggressive perimeter defense they are now 9-2. None of the wins are over impressive opponents, but the margins of victory are impressive, and Pomeroy has moved them up to 86th.

Stephen F Austin won't be contending for an at-large bid, so there won't be a lot of talking about them during the regular season. But keep an eye on them as a potentially dangerous Round of 64 opponent in March.

Revisiting Undefeated Teams I talked preseason about the stupidity of the 40-0 Kentucky hype. As I said at the time, this wasn't meant to be a criticism of Kentucky in particular, but a more general criticism of the idea that any team from a major conference can go 40-0 nowadays. There is just too much parity. It's not impossible, it's just incredibly unlikely. So on a slow day of basketball I thought I'd put up some numbers about that.

Right now, the team most likely to finish the regular season undefeated (according to Pomeroy) is Wichita State at 3.4%. Arizona is second at 0.4%. Wisconsin is third at 0.1%. And those are just the numbers for the regular season, and don't include conference tournament games or NCAA Tournament games. Wichita State is top of the list for an obvious reason: they don't have to play in a BCS conference (Toledo is in an even weaker conference, but they're not nearly as good as Wichita State and also have a road game at Kansas ahead).

But even Arizona, ranked #1 in the country, playing in a mediocre Pac-12 and with all of their tough non-conference games done, only has a 1-in-250 chance of going 18-0 in Pac-12 play. And Wisconsin (also finished with their tough non-conference games) is only as high as they are because they have a fortunate Big Ten schedule, only having to play Michigan State and Ohio State at home.

So just accept right now that nobody is going undefeated. Everybody will lose a game, and there's not going to be a reason to panic when Arizona or Wisconsin or Ohio State loses a game. It's going to happen to everybody.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Morning News: New Bracket, Arizona Comes Back Vs Michigan, UNC Wins Ugly Over Kentucky, VCU Falls Again, And Much More

Welcome to the 1 seed line, Aaron Gordon

New Bracket Projection It's Sunday morning, so there is a new bracket projection. The biggest change is St. Mary's moving into the Field of 68, replacing Stanford. The Aaron Bright injury is the primary reason Stanford dropped out. The four 1 seeds changed for the first time this season, with Arizona moving up a line and Duke dropping down.

Arizona Impresses In Comeback Victory On the road at Michigan, in a game where they were two point underdogs, Arizona looked to finally be on their way to their first loss of the season. They trailed basically the entire game. But in the final few minutes, they absolutely dominated the glass, and also went unconscious from the free throw line. In the final 2:30, Arizona hit 8-for-9 at the free throw line. And this undersized Michigan team ended up allowing Arizona a 48.6 OR%. In Michigan's defense, Arizona just might be the best rebounding team in the country.

Is Arizona the best team in the country? Maybe, though probably not. If they had started the season ranked behind Ohio State, Syracuse or Wisconsin, or if they had blown one of several close games (including a home game against UNLV where they led by only two points with 30 seconds left) then they wouldn't be ranked #1. Pomeroy has them 4th and the Sagarin PREDICTOR has them 2nd. They do probably have the best resume in college basketball thus far. And with this non-conference resume, a sweep of the Pac-12 titles will earn them a 1 seed in March. It's been a fantastic start to the season for the Wildcats, and whether they're the best or fourth best team in the country really doesn't matter right now, to be honest.

This is a huge missed opportunity for Michigan. There's not a significant risk that they're going to fall onto the Tournament bubble, but this was the type of win that could move them up a seed line or two in March. Lately, I've argued that the Big Ten is a four team race, with Michigan the odd-team out in 5th place. This was the type of win that could have gotten them back in that discussion. But there are still too many questions about their defense, about their reliance on Spike Albrecht as a playmaker at key points in games, and about front court offense

North Carolina Wins Ugly Over Kentucky Both of these teams got Jay Bilas's pretty badly. The game finished with 56 fouls and 88 free throw attempts. The quick whistle went both ways, and for a while Kentucky was able to get an assembly line going to the free throw line by having their athletic perimeter talent put their heads down and attack the rime. But after they got into the bonus before the first tv timeout of the 2nd half, the UNC crowd went apoplectic, and the refs were cowed for pretty much the rest of the game. Kentucky just does not have players that can create (or make) open shots, and if they're not getting to the basket and to the line, their offense stagnates.

North Carolina remains a question mark because they wait on PJ Hairston. Despite three great wins, they're still a step below the type of team that can earn a 1 or 2 seed and win the ACC. With Hairston, they're not. At full strength North Carolina might be the best team in the ACC. But without any timeline on Hairston's suspension, it's very difficult to project a seed for them.

Kentucky has to avoid a let-down-look-ahead loss to Belmont next weekend, but their upcoming game with Louisville will be a fascinating contrast of styles. Louisville has the far superior backcourt, and could potentially eat the Harrison twins alive. But Kentucky will have a massive size advantage and might play volleyball off the backboards all game. That'll be a game you won't want to miss.

VCU Falls Again It's not that this is a really bad loss for VCU. It's not that they have any really bad losses, honestly. It's that they're not beating enough good teams. The big change is their offense, which has dropped from 21st to 74th in the Pomeroy ratings. But what makes it hard to diagnose by watching them is that nothing has significantly changed. VCU is turning the ball over a little bit more, they're shooting a little bit worse, they're a little worse at the free throw line... it just all adds up. The biggest missing piece is clearly Darius Theus. Briante Weber just has been a significantly less efficient point guard than Theus was.

VCU is still a good enough team to earn an at-large bid, but they're going to enter A-10 play with an NIT-type resume. They have to start beating good teams.

Saint Mary's Shooting Carries Them To A Key Win Over Boise State Both Saint Mary's and Boise State are significantly better offensively than defensively, so this was always going to be a high scoring game. The difference was St. Mary's shooters going off behind the arc, finishing 12-for-23. Jeff Elorriaga did his best to fight back for Boise State (6-for-9 behind the arc), but his teammates finished a combined 0-for-5.

This was a huge win not just for St. Mary's but for the entire WCC. The conference has lacked the large number of quality non-conference victories that they've had in the past. Beating each other doesn't lead to quality wins unless somebody does something out-of-conference. This win goes a long way toward making the WCC a two-bid (or even three-bid) league. Boise State, meanwhile, will finish non-conference play without a win over a likely RPI Top 50 opponent. They are a bubble quality team, but they're going to have to play really well in Mountain West play just to work their way into the Field of 68.

Notre Dame Grabs A Needed Win Over Indiana The Hoosiers have tended to struggle this season mostly when their jump shots weren't falling and when they were dominated in the paint. But interestingly enough, they actually outrebounded the Irish and shot slightly better behind the arc. Instead they were outplayed by Notre Dame's guards, who were vastly more effective at getting into the lane for easy baskets and to the line. Notre Dame finished with a 30-to-16 free throw advantage. Jerian Grant took 11 himself on the way to a 23 point, 9 assist performance.

Coming off the loss to North Dakota State, this was a win that Notre Dame absolutely had to have. Even if they lose to Ohio State, they will now have a win over a likely RPI Top 50 team in non-conference play. A 9-9 ACC record or better should put them in decent shape for an at-large bid.

Meanwhile, Indiana is probably closer to being a bubble team than most of their fans realize. They will get Michigan State and Wisconsin at home in the first two weeks of conference play, so the Hoosiers absolutely need to capitalize early or risk showing up in bubble watches when February rolls around.

Kansas Takes Care Of Business Vs New Mexico This result isn't big news, really. Kansas was supposed to win at home, and they did. But this result underscored two issues. First, I stand by my point that the panic about Kansas is overstated. They will be one of the three or four best teams in the country by March. They have so much talent (here it was Naadir Thorpe stepping up as a playmaker, with 8 points and 9 assists). Second, the Mountain West is down this year. New Mexico is probably still the best team, but they're not looking at the type of 2 or 3 seed that the Mountain West champ has been getting in recent seasons. Don't be surprised to see zero Mountain West teams with a 5 seed or better in March.

Xavier Crushes Cincinnati This game was never competitive. Xavier grabbed a 21 point first half lead, and the closest Cincinnati ever got in the second half was 12. And Xavier actually did this despite committing 10 more turnovers. They just couldn't miss a shot. Their 70.5 eFG% was their best shooting day since a 81.1 eFG% in a 117-75 win over Fairleigh Dickinson last season. Xavier still has Alabama and Wake Forest before entering Big East play, and with wins in those two games they will start to get at-large buzz. They're closer to the bubble than you think.

This is a brutal loss for Cincinnati. They are 7-2, but their best win came over a mediocre NC State team. They'll get a chance to upset Pittsburgh on Tuesday, but without that their non-conference slate is going to turn into a total loss.

Butler Escapes Purdue This was a game that got lost in the shuffle, but it was another tough loss on a bad day for Big Ten hoops, and it also represented a crucial win for Butler to salvage their non-conference slate. Either this or the win over Princeton is their best so far this season. They have a tough road game next weekend at Evansville (Butler will be only a small favorite in Vegas), but if they can get past it then a 10-8 Big East record will get them to 20 wins, and a decent shot at an at-large bid. Purdue doesn't look anything like an at-large team, though they have potential to get better. This roster is better than they've played so far. It's bizarre to see a Matt Painter team under-perform this much.

W-13 BP68

It's been a relatively slow week for college basketball. It always is around finals. We have two more relatively slow weeks before conference play really kicks off. That doesn't mean there weren't changes to the bracket.

There was a change in the 1 seeds for the first time this season, with Arizona grabbing a 1 seed. They'd been sitting as the top 2 seed, but after that impressive comeback road upset of Michigan, it's hard to deny them a 1 seed. Duke drops out, more than anything because their ACC competition looks stronger than it would be preseason.

There is only one change to the 68 teams in the bracket. That change is St. Mary's moving into the field after their big win over BYU, with Stanford dropping out (the Aaron Bright injury is a big part of that).

Last week, I explained why I have Kansas first overall, so if you're angry at me please read my reasoning here.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. Florida

3. Oklahoma State
3. Wisconsin
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Iowa

4. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
4. Villanova
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. UConn

5. North Carolina
5. Pittsburgh
5. Syracuse
5. Creighton

6. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
6. Iowa State
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. St. Louis

7. Michigan
7. UMass
7. Baylor
7. Marquette

8. UCLA
8. Oregon
8. Memphis
8. Virginia

9. Colorado
9. Indiana
9. Tennessee
9. Florida State

10. San Diego State
10. Cincinnati
10. Boise State
10. Notre Dame

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Clemson
11. Minnesota
11. Missouri

12. LSU
12. Dayton
12. Butler
12. Saint Mary's
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
13. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. TOLEDO (MAC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. BRYANT (NEC)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Maryland, Providence, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana State, Utah State, Arizona State, California, Stanford, Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, Wake Forest, George Washington, Richmond, St. John's, Xavier, Illinois, Purdue, Kansas State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, UTEP, UNLV, Utah, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Central Florida, South Florida, Temple, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, DePaul, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Delaware, Charlotte, UAB, Iona, Ohio, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, South Carolina, Texas A&M