#23 New Mexico 88, San Diego State 86
This was one of the more important games of the weekend, even if the folks at ESPN didn't think so. San Diego State played well here, with six players in double figures, but they had no answer for a red hot Darington Hobson. With 29 points, 12 rebound and six assists, this was clearly Hobson's best game of the season (he even hit a miracle shot at the halftime buzzer that ended up being the difference in a two-point win), and it came at a great time. But before I talk about New Mexico, I want to talk about San Diego State, a team that seems to have the same resume every season. In the last three seasons they have finished with 20 or more wins each time, finished above .500 in the conference each time, and ended up in the NIT each time. They're again on a pace for a 20 win season, and a +.500 record in the Mountain West, and again they would be out of the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. They are 5-4 in the Mountain West and 16-7 overall, with a 3-5 record against the RPI Top 100. Their best wins are over New Mexico and Arizona, and they have bad losses to Pacific and Wyoming. Their RPI is 39th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 59th. Multiple teams in the RPI Top 40 miss the Tournament each season, but it's rare for a team outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50 to get in. An ELO_CHESS of 59th will not get a team in, so the Aztecs have ground to make up. Their next big game is this coming Saturday afternoon, at home against UNLV. If they can win that game then they will probably be favored in every remaining regular season but one (at BYU on February 24th). As for New Mexico, they remain in a tie atop the Mountain West at 7-2. Their remaining home games are against weak opponents, and they rarely lose at the Pit under any conditions, so the key to winning the Mountain West regular season title will be the road games, particularly the road games at UNLV, Colorado State and BYU. UNLV and BYU are the two teams New Mexico is tied with atop the conference. The first of those three games is the one at UNLV, on Wednesday night. It looks like it will be another game on that awful Mountain West network. It's like the Mountain West conference is devising new ways to keep great Mountain West action off of tv channels that anybody in this country actually gets. It's frustrating for me, because I'd love to watch a game like New Mexico vs UNLV.
Illinois 78, #5 Michigan State 73
Tom Izzo made a tactical mistake here, I think, in starting the game without Korie Lucious. With Kalin Lucas out, Lucious is the only real point guard left on the roster. And Lucious is a very good player, but he has a tendency to get too excited from time to time and to make stupid mistakes. By keeping Lucious on the bench it not only keeps the team without a real ball handler on the floor (Chris Allen handled much of that, and did so poorly, with two turnovers to start the game and with four turnovers for the game, with only one assist), but also negatively affected his play when he finally got to play. Lucious was frenetic and out of control when he got on the floor, and probably would have been better off working his jitters out on the floor to start the game rather than stewing on the bench. Lucious ended up playing 30 minutes, but he committed six turnovers, mostly because he was trying too hard to make great players rather than letting the game come to him. And ball handling was the difference in this game, with Michigan State committing nine more turnovers than Illinois. They dominated the boards and shot better, so they would have won if they hadn't turned the ball over so much. Of course, Kalin Lucas might not be out much longer. He went through warm-ups for this game, and simply decided that he couldn't play in the game, but he could potentially play tomorrow night against Purdue. It will be essential that he come back soon, because Michigan State's lead atop the Big Ten has almost entirely evaporated, and they've got some more very tough games upcoming. Speaking of tough upcoming schedules, there might not be another team in the country that has it worse than Illinois. Their remaining schedule is: vs Ohio State, at Purdue, at Michigan, vs Minnesota, at Ohio State, vs Wisconsin. The "breather" in that schedule is a home game against Minnesota, a likely Tournament team. But Illinois has done wonderfully against the weak part of their schedule, building up an 8-3 Big Ten record. You never want to go into Selection Sunday on a big losing streak, so the Illini have to win some of those games, but not many of them. If they can finish even 2-5 to get to 10-8 then I think they'll have a great shot at an at-large bid. If they can win even three of those seven games and then get a win in the Big Ten tournament then that should be enough to lock them in.
UTEP 73, Tulsa 59
Jerome Jordan held up his end of the bargain for Tulsa here, dominating the game with 20 points on 7-for-11 shooting. But nobody else on Tulsa played well at all. The rest of the team shot 33% from the field, was out-rebounded and pretty badly and committed 14 turnovers. UTEP also got another very good game from Derrick Caracter, who has really come to life this season after such a disappointing tenure at Louisville. This is a huge victory for UTEP in that it puts them temporarily in control of Conference USA. They are alone in first place at 8-1, although the other three top teams in the conference (Tulsa, UAB and Memphis) are all sitting menacingly with only two losses. Also, this win moved UTEP ahead of Memphis in both the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings, and they are now the highest rated team in the conference in both computer rankings. As for their at-large chances, their RPI is 58th, but the RPI should never be taken too seriously. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 47th, which is much more important. Last year there were six teams in the ELO_CHESS Top 50 that missed the NCAA Tournament (and zero teams outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50 that got in), but only one higher than 42nd, and that team (Penn State) went on to win the NIT. So UTEP is very close to being in a very good place. Their next key game is the return game at Tulsa, which will be February 20th. As for Tulsa, they entered the season as the team considered most likely to knock off Memphis, but they have really fallen back to the point that they might only have the fourth best resume in the conference. But they're still on the bubble, with a 17-5 overall record, and a 2-4 record against the RPI Top 100 with a win over Oklahoma State and only one weak loss (on a neutral court against Nebraska). Their RPI is 62nd, their Sagarin rating is 70th and Pomeroy has them 69th. The good news is that they have plenty of good opponents left (vs Memphis, at Marshall, at Marshall, vs UTEP, at Duke, at Memphis) against which to gain quality wins. It's been quite a few years since a Conference USA team woke up on February 13th with six remaining regular season games against RPI Top 100 opponents.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Texas A&M Moves Firmly Into Field Of 65
Texas A&M 78, #24 Baylor 71
I've been really impressed with the way that Texas A&M has rallied itself since the Derrick Roland injury. They are just playing smart and playing their hearts out, and they seem to be using Roland as a person to rally around rather than to pity. They've now won five of their last six games, including three straight impressive wins over Texas Tech, Missouri and Baylor. They're now 6-3 in the Big 12, and 6-6 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Clemson and Minnesota to go with the wins I already talked about, and zero bad losses. Their RPI is up to 20th, Sagarin has them 28th and Pomeroy has them 37th. By any measure they would definitely be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. If they can get to 9-7 in the Big 12 then it's hard to see them not making the Tournament. If they finish 8-8 then it could come down to their play in the Big 12 tournament. Considering how brutal their remaining schedule is (every single one is a game they can lose if they don't play well) they have by no means locked up that 9-7 record. As for Baylor, this is not a bad loss and they are still looking like a safe Tournament team, but they do have flaws. I think that their biggest flaw is the total lack of depth at the guard position. Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn are outstanding, and potentially the best backcourt in a conference full of great backcourts, but they have almost no bench production from the position. It means that they really get in trouble if either player gets in foul trouble, and also that both players need to take it easy on the defensive side of the court to stay fresh for 35+ minutes every game. Baylor's perimeter defense is well below average, meaning that they give up a lot of open three-pointers and force very few turnovers. The strong interior defenders (like Ekpe Udoh) do help bail out the guards when any opponent gets into the lane, so as a whole the Baylor team defense is still fairly strong (Pomeroy rates them the fifth best defense in the Big 12), but it's still a flaw that can be exposed by the right team. Baylor is only 4-4 in the Big 12, but have a relatively easy upcoming schedule and will be almost assured of an at-large bid if they can get to 8-8. They might even get in at 7-9, depending on other factors.
Oklahoma 80, #10 Texas 71
This was a pretty convincing win for Oklahoma. They scored the first points of the game and were never even tied after that, opening up an 18 point lead by halftime. They had a few anxious moments when the lead got down to 8 with about four minutes left in the game, but it never close enough that it really seemed like Texas might win. This game really just came down to three-point shooting, as the teams were even in just about every other aspect of the game. But Oklahoma hit 42% behind the arc and Texas hit 28% behind the arc. On the season Oklahoma has been slightly better, but more than anything this was just a day where Texas went ice cold on deep shots. But it seems like Texas has had a lot of those types of days recently, with four losses in their last six games. They could certainly quiet all of the criticism tonight if they beat Kansas. But short of winning that game, I no longer see any realistic path to either a share of the Big 12 title or a 1 seed, even if they win the Big 12 tournament. As for Oklahoma, this is by far their biggest win of the season, and it comes at a critical time as they try to make a run at an at-large bid. They are now up to 4-4 in the Big 12, and 13-9 overall, including 5-6 against the RPI Top 100. Those losses to Houston and San Diego back at the Great Alaska Shootout in November could really come back to haunt them if they come up just short of an NCAA bid. And at the moment, they would certainly be out if the season ended now, even with this nice win over Texas. Their RPI is 71st and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 78th. They will have to finish at least 9-7 in the Big 12, in addition to winning at least one game in the Big 12 tournament, to have a good shot at an at-large bid.
Virginia Tech 70, Clemson 59
Clemson is going to have nightmares about Malcolm Delaney. Neither team could get much going offensively, with both squads hitting 31% from the field. Clemson had seven more turnovers, but they also had seven more offensive rebounds, and so those two stats basically cancel out. But with both teams struggling to score Malcolm Delaney just fought his way to the line over and over again, and that was the difference in the game. He went 20-for-23 from the free throw line by himself, and that is not a typo. Delaney hit one less free throw than Clemson attempted. This is a quality win for a Virginia Tech team that is on the fat part of the bubble right now. This win puts them 5-3 in the ACC with a relatively easy upcoming schedule, but the ACC is not regarded as highly this year as they have in recent years and just getting to 9-7 might not be enough for an at-large bid for the Hokies. They are still starving for a big win as this is their only RPI Top 50 win at the moment. As for Clemson, they fall to 4-5 in the ACC but with about as easy of an upcoming schedule as you can have in the ACC (vs Florida State, vs Miami, vs Virginia). They are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Butler and Maryland and no bad losses, and should be safely into the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 8-8 in ACC play.
I've been really impressed with the way that Texas A&M has rallied itself since the Derrick Roland injury. They are just playing smart and playing their hearts out, and they seem to be using Roland as a person to rally around rather than to pity. They've now won five of their last six games, including three straight impressive wins over Texas Tech, Missouri and Baylor. They're now 6-3 in the Big 12, and 6-6 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Clemson and Minnesota to go with the wins I already talked about, and zero bad losses. Their RPI is up to 20th, Sagarin has them 28th and Pomeroy has them 37th. By any measure they would definitely be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. If they can get to 9-7 in the Big 12 then it's hard to see them not making the Tournament. If they finish 8-8 then it could come down to their play in the Big 12 tournament. Considering how brutal their remaining schedule is (every single one is a game they can lose if they don't play well) they have by no means locked up that 9-7 record. As for Baylor, this is not a bad loss and they are still looking like a safe Tournament team, but they do have flaws. I think that their biggest flaw is the total lack of depth at the guard position. Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn are outstanding, and potentially the best backcourt in a conference full of great backcourts, but they have almost no bench production from the position. It means that they really get in trouble if either player gets in foul trouble, and also that both players need to take it easy on the defensive side of the court to stay fresh for 35+ minutes every game. Baylor's perimeter defense is well below average, meaning that they give up a lot of open three-pointers and force very few turnovers. The strong interior defenders (like Ekpe Udoh) do help bail out the guards when any opponent gets into the lane, so as a whole the Baylor team defense is still fairly strong (Pomeroy rates them the fifth best defense in the Big 12), but it's still a flaw that can be exposed by the right team. Baylor is only 4-4 in the Big 12, but have a relatively easy upcoming schedule and will be almost assured of an at-large bid if they can get to 8-8. They might even get in at 7-9, depending on other factors.
Oklahoma 80, #10 Texas 71
This was a pretty convincing win for Oklahoma. They scored the first points of the game and were never even tied after that, opening up an 18 point lead by halftime. They had a few anxious moments when the lead got down to 8 with about four minutes left in the game, but it never close enough that it really seemed like Texas might win. This game really just came down to three-point shooting, as the teams were even in just about every other aspect of the game. But Oklahoma hit 42% behind the arc and Texas hit 28% behind the arc. On the season Oklahoma has been slightly better, but more than anything this was just a day where Texas went ice cold on deep shots. But it seems like Texas has had a lot of those types of days recently, with four losses in their last six games. They could certainly quiet all of the criticism tonight if they beat Kansas. But short of winning that game, I no longer see any realistic path to either a share of the Big 12 title or a 1 seed, even if they win the Big 12 tournament. As for Oklahoma, this is by far their biggest win of the season, and it comes at a critical time as they try to make a run at an at-large bid. They are now up to 4-4 in the Big 12, and 13-9 overall, including 5-6 against the RPI Top 100. Those losses to Houston and San Diego back at the Great Alaska Shootout in November could really come back to haunt them if they come up just short of an NCAA bid. And at the moment, they would certainly be out if the season ended now, even with this nice win over Texas. Their RPI is 71st and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 78th. They will have to finish at least 9-7 in the Big 12, in addition to winning at least one game in the Big 12 tournament, to have a good shot at an at-large bid.
Virginia Tech 70, Clemson 59
Clemson is going to have nightmares about Malcolm Delaney. Neither team could get much going offensively, with both squads hitting 31% from the field. Clemson had seven more turnovers, but they also had seven more offensive rebounds, and so those two stats basically cancel out. But with both teams struggling to score Malcolm Delaney just fought his way to the line over and over again, and that was the difference in the game. He went 20-for-23 from the free throw line by himself, and that is not a typo. Delaney hit one less free throw than Clemson attempted. This is a quality win for a Virginia Tech team that is on the fat part of the bubble right now. This win puts them 5-3 in the ACC with a relatively easy upcoming schedule, but the ACC is not regarded as highly this year as they have in recent years and just getting to 9-7 might not be enough for an at-large bid for the Hokies. They are still starving for a big win as this is their only RPI Top 50 win at the moment. As for Clemson, they fall to 4-5 in the ACC but with about as easy of an upcoming schedule as you can have in the ACC (vs Florida State, vs Miami, vs Virginia). They are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Butler and Maryland and no bad losses, and should be safely into the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 8-8 in ACC play.
Why People Hate ESPN
I'll have more game recaps tonight, but I just had a quick thought on ESPN. I generally think that much of the complaints about ESPN are over the top, and merely inevitable criticism of the nation's leader in sports coverage. Sure, they are obnoxious when they over-hype Brett Favre and the New York Yankees, but they also have some great analysts, from Bobby Knight to Ron Jaworski to John Clayton.
I don't have a problem when ESPN focuses on the biggest programs in college basketball. Casual fans know more about Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky than other programs, so any tv station is going to focus most on those teams that resonate most with fans. But there's a difference between focusing on the most popular teams, and putting down other teams.
I have been working at home this afternoon and I had ESPN's SportsNation on television as background noise. They showed a clip from the New Mexico-San Diego State game over the weekend, which happened to be one of the most important games of the weekend (I'll be talking about it in a game recap tonight). New Mexico has spent much of this season ranked, and is fighting for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament (in my most recent bracket I've got them as a 4 seed), and San Diego State is fighting desperately for one of the last at-large bids. Yet Colin Cowherd decided to use this as an opportunity to prove his ignorance of college basketball, complaining that the game was even on television: "Who was watching? Why was this game on tv?... It's two small schools, it's on locally". Besides the fact that both schools have well over 25,000 students, I was actually mad that this game wasn't on tv where I was while some awful games from BCS conferences were.
It's people like that at television stations at ESPN that lead us to have awful games like UCLA-Cal on national tv on CBS, while great games like New Mexico-vs-BYU get relegated to a Mountain West tv channel that is in about 17 homes around the nation. What people want to see are good teams playing meaningful games. They will enjoy New Mexico games if you give them the chance.
Let me add that I also listened to Colin Cowherd interviewing Doug Gottlieb a couple of weeks ago about the team he played for (Oklahoma State) and their upcoming game against Baylor. One question was "Is Baylor any good this year? How are they doing?" At the time they were right on the edge of the Top 25. Obviously Colin Cowherd doesn't watch college basketball. Yet this won't stop him from telling us with absolute certainty who will win each game of the NCAA Tournament. And things like that are what is so maddening about ESPN.
I don't have a problem when ESPN focuses on the biggest programs in college basketball. Casual fans know more about Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky than other programs, so any tv station is going to focus most on those teams that resonate most with fans. But there's a difference between focusing on the most popular teams, and putting down other teams.
I have been working at home this afternoon and I had ESPN's SportsNation on television as background noise. They showed a clip from the New Mexico-San Diego State game over the weekend, which happened to be one of the most important games of the weekend (I'll be talking about it in a game recap tonight). New Mexico has spent much of this season ranked, and is fighting for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament (in my most recent bracket I've got them as a 4 seed), and San Diego State is fighting desperately for one of the last at-large bids. Yet Colin Cowherd decided to use this as an opportunity to prove his ignorance of college basketball, complaining that the game was even on television: "Who was watching? Why was this game on tv?... It's two small schools, it's on locally". Besides the fact that both schools have well over 25,000 students, I was actually mad that this game wasn't on tv where I was while some awful games from BCS conferences were.
It's people like that at television stations at ESPN that lead us to have awful games like UCLA-Cal on national tv on CBS, while great games like New Mexico-vs-BYU get relegated to a Mountain West tv channel that is in about 17 homes around the nation. What people want to see are good teams playing meaningful games. They will enjoy New Mexico games if you give them the chance.
Let me add that I also listened to Colin Cowherd interviewing Doug Gottlieb a couple of weeks ago about the team he played for (Oklahoma State) and their upcoming game against Baylor. One question was "Is Baylor any good this year? How are they doing?" At the time they were right on the edge of the Top 25. Obviously Colin Cowherd doesn't watch college basketball. Yet this won't stop him from telling us with absolute certainty who will win each game of the NCAA Tournament. And things like that are what is so maddening about ESPN.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
W-5 BP65
Five weeks until Selection Sunday. At this point in the year I start putting brackets out twice weekly. The next bracket will be out at the conclusion of Wednesday night's games.
For the time being, here's how I see things ending up:
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Georgetown
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Texas
3. West Virginia
3. Michigan State
3. Kansas State
4. Wisconsin
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Ohio State
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Tennessee
5. Georgia Tech
5. Missouri
5. Pittsburgh
6. Wake Forest
6. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
6. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
6. Clemson
7. Baylor
7. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
7. BYU
7. Washington
8. Maryland
8. Vanderbilt
8. North Carolina
8. Xavier
9. Mississippi
9. Oklahoma State
9. UNLV
9. Texas A&M
10. Louisville
10. Florida
10. Cincinnati
10. UConn
11. SIENA (MAAC)
11. Illinois
11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. Florida State
12. Minnesota
12. Saint Mary's
12. Dayton
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Northwestern, UAB, UTEP, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi State
Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Charlotte, Marquette, South Florida, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, Tulsa, Arizona, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech
Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Seton Hall, Iowa State, Northeastern, William & Mary, Marshall, Iona, Missouri State, Washington State, Portland
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, La Salle, George Washington, Saint Louis, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Colorado, Nebraska, George Mason, Southern Miss, Wright State, Harvard, Akron, Bradley, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Nevada
For the time being, here's how I see things ending up:
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Georgetown
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Texas
3. West Virginia
3. Michigan State
3. Kansas State
4. Wisconsin
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Ohio State
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Tennessee
5. Georgia Tech
5. Missouri
5. Pittsburgh
6. Wake Forest
6. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
6. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
6. Clemson
7. Baylor
7. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
7. BYU
7. Washington
8. Maryland
8. Vanderbilt
8. North Carolina
8. Xavier
9. Mississippi
9. Oklahoma State
9. UNLV
9. Texas A&M
10. Louisville
10. Florida
10. Cincinnati
10. UConn
11. SIENA (MAAC)
11. Illinois
11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. Florida State
12. Minnesota
12. Saint Mary's
12. Dayton
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Northwestern, UAB, UTEP, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi State
Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Charlotte, Marquette, South Florida, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, Tulsa, Arizona, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech
Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Seton Hall, Iowa State, Northeastern, William & Mary, Marshall, Iona, Missouri State, Washington State, Portland
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, La Salle, George Washington, Saint Louis, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Colorado, Nebraska, George Mason, Southern Miss, Wright State, Harvard, Akron, Bradley, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Nevada
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Wisconsin Continues To Roll
#16 Wisconsin 62, Michigan 44
You'd be hard pressed to find any team in the nation that has played better than Wisconsin over the last week or so. After slaughtering Michigan State at home, they just toyed with Michigan in Ann Arbor here. They always do such a great job of working the shot clock on offense, and they did a good job of scrambling for long rebounds here (8 offensive rebounds, compared to 13 defensive rebounds for Michigan). It's so devastating to play defense for 35 seconds and then realize you have to do with it again, and you could see it affect Michigan psychologically. There were a total of 80 shots taken in this game - by both teams combined. It was impossible for Michigan to come back in the second half because it seemed like they only got a shot once every two minutes. The only reason the score was so high (yes, I know there were only 106 points scored) was because both teams shot well (Wisconsin hit 54% from the field, Michigan hit 44%). The Badgers are now in a great position at 8-3 in the Big Ten, with all of their toughest games behind them. Their two toughest games the rest of the way are road games at Minnesota and Illinois. We can pretty much pencil them in for at least 13 wins, and if they can get to 14 then they'll have an excellent shot at earning at least a share of the Big Ten title. If they can do that then they'll be in serious consideration for a 2 seed on Selection Sunday. As for Michigan, they only have one game left in what has been a brutal eight game schedule. But as tough as that schedule has been, they've needed big wins and just haven't gotten them (they're now 2-5 through the first seven of those eight games). The Wolverines are now 4-7 in the Big Ten, and 11-12 overall. They have to get to win at least five of their final seven regular season games to have any shot at an at-large bid heading into the Big Ten tournament. Their next game, on the road at Minnesota on Thursday night, is practically a must-win at this point.
UNLV 88, #12 BYU 74
Tre'Von Willis was the star of this game with 33 points, but the real story for me was BYU's shooting. BYU is, in my opinion, the best shooting team in the nation. They entered this game ranked 2nd in the nation in free throw shooting, 6th in 3-point shooting, and 31st in 2-point shooting, and that's not controlling for their difficulty of schedule. They shot well at the free thrown line here (86%, which isn't that surprising when you consider that they're over 77% as a team this season), but they were only 38% from the field and 7-for-27 behind the arc. This game wasn't on any television channel that I get, so I don't know if this had to do more with great UNLV defense, or just a bad shooting night for BYU. Although the fact that BYU attempted so many threes despite shooting poorly, and the fact that nobody other Jimmer Fredette could get to the free throw line, suggests that UNLV just did a really good shot of forcing long, contested shots. Either way, this is a huge win for a UNLV team that has separated itself from San Diego State and seems to be the clear third best team in the Mountain West. They're 7-2 in the Mountain West, and 8-3 against the RPI Top 100, including wins over Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, San Diego State and BYU. There's no doubt that they'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, and they could really get a good seed if they play like this more often. As for BYU, this loss drops them to 7-2 and a three-way tie atop the Mountain West with UNLV and New Mexico, but they have a very easy upcoming schedule that should help them get back to their winning ways. They'd have to completely fall apart to have any chance of missing the NCAA Tournament.
#13 Gonzaga 66, Memphis 58
I enjoy the annual Gonzaga-Memphis games, but they've definitely had better games in their series than this one. It hurts that Memphis is nowhere near as good as they've been in recent years, but neither of these teams played well here even by this year's standards. Both teams shot right around 40%, and the two teams combined to only hit 60% from the line. I give Mark Few credit for focusing his defense on Elliot Williams. It's become clear this season that Memphis plays well when Williams plays well, and he's been the star in every single one of their big wins. Gonzaga held him to 11 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds here, which wasn't nearly enough. Wesley Witherspoon got loose for 26 points, but that's okay. If you can contain Elliot Williams then you can allow the other Memphis players to score their points, because they just are not experienced enough or good enough to win that way. For Gonzaga, they needed this win to emphasize that they are still an elite team, since it's so hard to find quality opponents in the WCC. Their next game is against Saint Mary's - a quality opponent - but otherwise they will not play another good team until the WCC tournament at the earliest. If Gonzaga wins out then they will be in the discussion for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the argument against them will be the lack of big wins. Their win over Wisconsin looks really good right now, but otherwise their best wins are over Cincinnati and Saint Mary's, which will be a very weak collection of scalps compared to the other teams vying for 2 seeds. As for Memphis, their at-large chances are not looking very good right now. They are 16-7 overall, including 3-5 against the RPI Top 100, but their win over UAB is their only win against the RPI Top 60. They also have bad losses to SMU and UMass. Their RPI has fallen all the way to 76th in the nation. With two games left against Tulsa, as well as a road game against UAB, Memphis can still build a decent resume. But their best chance will be winning the C-USA tournament, which I still think they will. They have the most pure talent in the conference, have the confidence and experience from their dominance in recent years, and despite their struggles against elite teams out-of-conference they have still looked very good against the best that the C-USA has to offer.
You'd be hard pressed to find any team in the nation that has played better than Wisconsin over the last week or so. After slaughtering Michigan State at home, they just toyed with Michigan in Ann Arbor here. They always do such a great job of working the shot clock on offense, and they did a good job of scrambling for long rebounds here (8 offensive rebounds, compared to 13 defensive rebounds for Michigan). It's so devastating to play defense for 35 seconds and then realize you have to do with it again, and you could see it affect Michigan psychologically. There were a total of 80 shots taken in this game - by both teams combined. It was impossible for Michigan to come back in the second half because it seemed like they only got a shot once every two minutes. The only reason the score was so high (yes, I know there were only 106 points scored) was because both teams shot well (Wisconsin hit 54% from the field, Michigan hit 44%). The Badgers are now in a great position at 8-3 in the Big Ten, with all of their toughest games behind them. Their two toughest games the rest of the way are road games at Minnesota and Illinois. We can pretty much pencil them in for at least 13 wins, and if they can get to 14 then they'll have an excellent shot at earning at least a share of the Big Ten title. If they can do that then they'll be in serious consideration for a 2 seed on Selection Sunday. As for Michigan, they only have one game left in what has been a brutal eight game schedule. But as tough as that schedule has been, they've needed big wins and just haven't gotten them (they're now 2-5 through the first seven of those eight games). The Wolverines are now 4-7 in the Big Ten, and 11-12 overall. They have to get to win at least five of their final seven regular season games to have any shot at an at-large bid heading into the Big Ten tournament. Their next game, on the road at Minnesota on Thursday night, is practically a must-win at this point.
UNLV 88, #12 BYU 74
Tre'Von Willis was the star of this game with 33 points, but the real story for me was BYU's shooting. BYU is, in my opinion, the best shooting team in the nation. They entered this game ranked 2nd in the nation in free throw shooting, 6th in 3-point shooting, and 31st in 2-point shooting, and that's not controlling for their difficulty of schedule. They shot well at the free thrown line here (86%, which isn't that surprising when you consider that they're over 77% as a team this season), but they were only 38% from the field and 7-for-27 behind the arc. This game wasn't on any television channel that I get, so I don't know if this had to do more with great UNLV defense, or just a bad shooting night for BYU. Although the fact that BYU attempted so many threes despite shooting poorly, and the fact that nobody other Jimmer Fredette could get to the free throw line, suggests that UNLV just did a really good shot of forcing long, contested shots. Either way, this is a huge win for a UNLV team that has separated itself from San Diego State and seems to be the clear third best team in the Mountain West. They're 7-2 in the Mountain West, and 8-3 against the RPI Top 100, including wins over Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, San Diego State and BYU. There's no doubt that they'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, and they could really get a good seed if they play like this more often. As for BYU, this loss drops them to 7-2 and a three-way tie atop the Mountain West with UNLV and New Mexico, but they have a very easy upcoming schedule that should help them get back to their winning ways. They'd have to completely fall apart to have any chance of missing the NCAA Tournament.
#13 Gonzaga 66, Memphis 58
I enjoy the annual Gonzaga-Memphis games, but they've definitely had better games in their series than this one. It hurts that Memphis is nowhere near as good as they've been in recent years, but neither of these teams played well here even by this year's standards. Both teams shot right around 40%, and the two teams combined to only hit 60% from the line. I give Mark Few credit for focusing his defense on Elliot Williams. It's become clear this season that Memphis plays well when Williams plays well, and he's been the star in every single one of their big wins. Gonzaga held him to 11 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds here, which wasn't nearly enough. Wesley Witherspoon got loose for 26 points, but that's okay. If you can contain Elliot Williams then you can allow the other Memphis players to score their points, because they just are not experienced enough or good enough to win that way. For Gonzaga, they needed this win to emphasize that they are still an elite team, since it's so hard to find quality opponents in the WCC. Their next game is against Saint Mary's - a quality opponent - but otherwise they will not play another good team until the WCC tournament at the earliest. If Gonzaga wins out then they will be in the discussion for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the argument against them will be the lack of big wins. Their win over Wisconsin looks really good right now, but otherwise their best wins are over Cincinnati and Saint Mary's, which will be a very weak collection of scalps compared to the other teams vying for 2 seeds. As for Memphis, their at-large chances are not looking very good right now. They are 16-7 overall, including 3-5 against the RPI Top 100, but their win over UAB is their only win against the RPI Top 60. They also have bad losses to SMU and UMass. Their RPI has fallen all the way to 76th in the nation. With two games left against Tulsa, as well as a road game against UAB, Memphis can still build a decent resume. But their best chance will be winning the C-USA tournament, which I still think they will. They have the most pure talent in the conference, have the confidence and experience from their dominance in recent years, and despite their struggles against elite teams out-of-conference they have still looked very good against the best that the C-USA has to offer.
Wake Forest Grinds Out Win Over Virginia
Wake Forest 64, Virginia 61, OT
I'm a big fan of Tony Bennett, the first year coach of Virginia. He coaches the same grinding style that he used at Washington State, and that he learned from his father. It's clear that Bennett just doesn't have the horses to have an NCAA Tournament team this season, but he'll eventually get the kids that he wants, and he's done a great job this season of making far more talented teams work really, really hard to beat him. Wake Forest also did them a favor in this game by hitting only 11-of-23 at the line. Virginia also got a big time performance here from the one legitimate ACC star that they have: Sylven Landesberg, who scored 28 points on 8-for-19 shooting from the field. But the other Virginia players really struggled with the athleticism and length of the Wake Forest defense, which Pomeroy rated as the 9th best defense in the nation coming into this game. Wake Forest appears to be pulling themselves off of the Tournament bubble for good, as they're now 6-3 in the ACC with a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way. In fact, I'd still throw them into the discussion as a potential ACC regular season champion. Virginia, meanwhile, falls to 5-3 with a much more difficult upcoming schedule. Five of their final eight games are on the road, and the three home games won't be much easier (against Florida State, Duke and Maryland). Virginia can make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 9-7 in ACC play, but I don't see it happening. I see 7-9 as a much more likely result, which would still be an impressive year considering how little talent Tony Bennett has to work with.
Florida 69, Mississippi State 62
This was a very tight game for the first 30 minutes, with neither team getting a lead of more than three or four points, but Floida began to pull away over those final ten minutes and this game was not particularly close over the final moments. Jarvis Varnado is a vacuum cleaner down low, and so it's always a key for teams to hit outside shots to beat Mississippi State, and so Florida relied on their best shooter: Chandler Parsons. Parsons scored an efficient 18 points on 5-for-8 shooting from the field, and also had 12 rebounds and six assists. Vernon Macklin also played well with 20 points. Even though Varnado didn't have a lot to swat at (he only had one block here, despite averaging more than five per game on the season) he did play well with 16 points and 12 rebounds, but he's just not much of an offensive force, and Mississippi State as a team just doesn't have somebody that they can rely on to get big baskets. It's why they struggle to win close games (they're 3-5 in games decided by less than five points, and 13-2 in all other games). At 4-4 in the SEC they now head into an essential home game against rival Ole Miss on Thursday evening. They are a solid 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but their best win is over either Old Dominion or Ole Miss, and they are an atrocious 6-4 against teams in the RPI 101-200. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall out of the Top 70 when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. Considering how weak their remaining schedule is they will have to go 9-7 in the SEC to have any real shot at an at-large bid heading into the SEC tournament. One advantage of being in the awful SEC West is that they could go 9-7 and still end up first place in the SEC West, meaning a much easier path through the SEC tournament than a 9-7 SEC team probably deserves. As for Florida, they move to 6-3 with a very difficult remaining schedule by SEC standards (the SEC is much better than it was last year, but it's still not all that good compared to the other BCS conferences - not counting the awful Pac-10, of course). They have a much better resume than Mississippi State with a 4-5 record against the RPI Top 100 including wins over Michigan State and Florida State, and with only one bad loss (to South Alabama). Unlike Mississippi State they'd have a shot at an at-large bid even if they only finish 8-8 in the SEC, but I really think they've got to get to 9-7.
Richmond 71, #17 Temple 54
Richmond hasn't been getting any attention out of the Atlantic Ten this season. Temple has probably gotten the most, because they've been ranked, but Xavier also gets a lot of attention because of the success they've had in recent years. And as for the other teams fighting for NCAA at-large bids, most of the attention has fallen on Dayton and Rhode Island. Richmond also suffers because they don't have any obvious stars: they're not explosive offensively, and they're not particularly big either. But they play very suffocating team defense. It's not glamorous, but it wins games. In addition to this win they also have nice wins over Missouri, Florida, Mississippi State and Old Dominion, leading to a 6-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and an RPI that is all the way up to 31st. They'd be right on the bubble if the season ended now, and I think they'd actually be one of the last at-large bids awarded, getting in ahead of Dayton (As solid as the A-10 has been this season, I can't see them getting five Tournament bids). The key for them the rest of the way will be road games at Rhode Island, Xavier and Dayton. They can afford to lose two games the rest of the season, not even including a loss in the A-10 tournament, while still being in good position for an at-large bid. But they might not be able to afford three more regular season conference losses. So they've got to win one of those big road games. As for Temple, they remain in a good position even after this loss, at 7-2 in the A-10 and 7-5 against the RPI Top 100. With a fairly easy remaining schedule it's very unlikely that Temple will fall all the way out of the NCAA Tournament, but it's possible. The key for the Owls is to not let one bad loss snowball into a losing streak.
I'm a big fan of Tony Bennett, the first year coach of Virginia. He coaches the same grinding style that he used at Washington State, and that he learned from his father. It's clear that Bennett just doesn't have the horses to have an NCAA Tournament team this season, but he'll eventually get the kids that he wants, and he's done a great job this season of making far more talented teams work really, really hard to beat him. Wake Forest also did them a favor in this game by hitting only 11-of-23 at the line. Virginia also got a big time performance here from the one legitimate ACC star that they have: Sylven Landesberg, who scored 28 points on 8-for-19 shooting from the field. But the other Virginia players really struggled with the athleticism and length of the Wake Forest defense, which Pomeroy rated as the 9th best defense in the nation coming into this game. Wake Forest appears to be pulling themselves off of the Tournament bubble for good, as they're now 6-3 in the ACC with a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way. In fact, I'd still throw them into the discussion as a potential ACC regular season champion. Virginia, meanwhile, falls to 5-3 with a much more difficult upcoming schedule. Five of their final eight games are on the road, and the three home games won't be much easier (against Florida State, Duke and Maryland). Virginia can make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 9-7 in ACC play, but I don't see it happening. I see 7-9 as a much more likely result, which would still be an impressive year considering how little talent Tony Bennett has to work with.
Florida 69, Mississippi State 62
This was a very tight game for the first 30 minutes, with neither team getting a lead of more than three or four points, but Floida began to pull away over those final ten minutes and this game was not particularly close over the final moments. Jarvis Varnado is a vacuum cleaner down low, and so it's always a key for teams to hit outside shots to beat Mississippi State, and so Florida relied on their best shooter: Chandler Parsons. Parsons scored an efficient 18 points on 5-for-8 shooting from the field, and also had 12 rebounds and six assists. Vernon Macklin also played well with 20 points. Even though Varnado didn't have a lot to swat at (he only had one block here, despite averaging more than five per game on the season) he did play well with 16 points and 12 rebounds, but he's just not much of an offensive force, and Mississippi State as a team just doesn't have somebody that they can rely on to get big baskets. It's why they struggle to win close games (they're 3-5 in games decided by less than five points, and 13-2 in all other games). At 4-4 in the SEC they now head into an essential home game against rival Ole Miss on Thursday evening. They are a solid 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but their best win is over either Old Dominion or Ole Miss, and they are an atrocious 6-4 against teams in the RPI 101-200. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall out of the Top 70 when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. Considering how weak their remaining schedule is they will have to go 9-7 in the SEC to have any real shot at an at-large bid heading into the SEC tournament. One advantage of being in the awful SEC West is that they could go 9-7 and still end up first place in the SEC West, meaning a much easier path through the SEC tournament than a 9-7 SEC team probably deserves. As for Florida, they move to 6-3 with a very difficult remaining schedule by SEC standards (the SEC is much better than it was last year, but it's still not all that good compared to the other BCS conferences - not counting the awful Pac-10, of course). They have a much better resume than Mississippi State with a 4-5 record against the RPI Top 100 including wins over Michigan State and Florida State, and with only one bad loss (to South Alabama). Unlike Mississippi State they'd have a shot at an at-large bid even if they only finish 8-8 in the SEC, but I really think they've got to get to 9-7.
Richmond 71, #17 Temple 54
Richmond hasn't been getting any attention out of the Atlantic Ten this season. Temple has probably gotten the most, because they've been ranked, but Xavier also gets a lot of attention because of the success they've had in recent years. And as for the other teams fighting for NCAA at-large bids, most of the attention has fallen on Dayton and Rhode Island. Richmond also suffers because they don't have any obvious stars: they're not explosive offensively, and they're not particularly big either. But they play very suffocating team defense. It's not glamorous, but it wins games. In addition to this win they also have nice wins over Missouri, Florida, Mississippi State and Old Dominion, leading to a 6-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and an RPI that is all the way up to 31st. They'd be right on the bubble if the season ended now, and I think they'd actually be one of the last at-large bids awarded, getting in ahead of Dayton (As solid as the A-10 has been this season, I can't see them getting five Tournament bids). The key for them the rest of the way will be road games at Rhode Island, Xavier and Dayton. They can afford to lose two games the rest of the season, not even including a loss in the A-10 tournament, while still being in good position for an at-large bid. But they might not be able to afford three more regular season conference losses. So they've got to win one of those big road games. As for Temple, they remain in a good position even after this loss, at 7-2 in the A-10 and 7-5 against the RPI Top 100. With a fairly easy remaining schedule it's very unlikely that Temple will fall all the way out of the NCAA Tournament, but it's possible. The key for the Owls is to not let one bad loss snowball into a losing streak.
Georgetown Beats Villanova Handily
#8 Georgetown 103, #2 Villanova 90
This game was never close. Georgetown led by 23 points in the first half, and Villanova never got within single digits again. Georgetown continues to play up-and-down basketball: they have had a few clunkers, but when they're clicking they're possibly as good as any team other than Kansas. This win comes after a shocking home loss to South Florida, which itself came off of a dominating win over Duke. I had called this game a must-win for Georgetown if they were to have any shred of a hope of winning a share of the Big East title, because a loss would have put them a full five losses behind Villanova. They're still in fourth place, and a full 2 1/2 games back of Nova, but at least they have a shot if they can win out. If Georgetown can get to 13-5 or better and then win the Big East tournament title then they will be in the discussion for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday. As for Villanova, even though they failed to put the final nail in Georgetown's title hopes here, they still remain in a tie for the Big East lead with Syracuse at 9-1. Although they don't get a breather, with a road game upcoming at West Virginia, the team currently sitting in third place. They have a road game at Syracuse on February 27th which could be a de facto Big East regular season title game. If Villanova can win the Big East with something like a 16-2 record then they can earn a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they fail to win the Big East tournament.
Arizona State 81, Washington State 70
This seemed like it would be a dominating win for Arizona State, but it ended up being a little bit of a nailbiter. A 25-10 run by Washington State early in the second half made this one close, but in the end they ran out of steam. Wazzu did a good job of hustling here, winning nine extra offensive rebounds and six extra turnovers, meaning a lot of extra shots. Usually a team wins when they get 11 more shots from the field, but Arizona State kept finding open shots, and they kept hitting them, at a 57% clip from the field. And Washington State just could not get that big shot from star Klay Thompson, who was a volume shooter here with 20 points on 20 shots, including 2-for-10 behind the arc. The win moves Arizona State to 6-4 in the Pac-10, in a tie for second place in the conference behind 7-4 California. The Sun Devils are a solid 16-7 overall, but only 2-6 against the RPI Top 100. They have no particulary bad losses, but their best win is over San Diego State. With as bad as the Pac-10 is, they could go 11-7 and still miss the NCAA Tournament. In fact, I'd bet against it: I think they've got to go 12-6 and then win at least one more game in the Pac-10 tournament. Washington State's numbers are even worse, as they have fallen off the bubble altogether. They are 4-6 in the Pac-10, but an atrocious 5-8 against the RPI Top 200. Their RPI has slipped all the way to 110th in the nation. They'd have to win four or five games in a row just to get themselves back in the bubble discussion.
Dayton 90, Xavier 65
It seems like Dayton got a lot of frustrations out of their system this game. The preseason Atlantic Ten favorites have had a frustrating and disappointing season, but they were absolutely dominant over a quality Xavier squad here. The Flyers shot 56% from the field (including 54% behind the arc), and won the rebounding battle over an undersized Xavier squad by 17. Dayton is a deceptively good rebounding team, and I actually think they're the best in the conference. At 5-3 in the A-10 they are only in a tie for sixth place, but they could move up with a very easy next two weeks. They are 16-6 overall, including 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, with this win or a win over Georgia Tech being the best of the bunch. This win pushes their RPI up to 31st, and they are in a battle with Rhode Island for third place in the A-10 pecking order (I still think that Xavier is clearly ahead of both of those teams, and obviously Temple has the best resume in the conference). For Xavier, this is a game that they knew would be tough to win, so it is not a bad loss - even if the margin of victory is disappointing. They now fall out of a tie for first place into second at 8-2, with a chance to grab first place back in two weekends when they head to Charlotte. They also get a chance for another nice win next Saturday when they have a bizarre game against Florida (I'd love it if somebody could inform me why that game was scheduled for February). Xavier still has no bad losses, and have quality wins over Cincinnati, Rhode Island and Dayton. They are 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, and their RPI remains 26th. If they can beat Florida next weekend and then get to 12-6 in A-10 play (a 4-2 finish) then it's hard to see them not making the NCAA Tournament.
This game was never close. Georgetown led by 23 points in the first half, and Villanova never got within single digits again. Georgetown continues to play up-and-down basketball: they have had a few clunkers, but when they're clicking they're possibly as good as any team other than Kansas. This win comes after a shocking home loss to South Florida, which itself came off of a dominating win over Duke. I had called this game a must-win for Georgetown if they were to have any shred of a hope of winning a share of the Big East title, because a loss would have put them a full five losses behind Villanova. They're still in fourth place, and a full 2 1/2 games back of Nova, but at least they have a shot if they can win out. If Georgetown can get to 13-5 or better and then win the Big East tournament title then they will be in the discussion for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday. As for Villanova, even though they failed to put the final nail in Georgetown's title hopes here, they still remain in a tie for the Big East lead with Syracuse at 9-1. Although they don't get a breather, with a road game upcoming at West Virginia, the team currently sitting in third place. They have a road game at Syracuse on February 27th which could be a de facto Big East regular season title game. If Villanova can win the Big East with something like a 16-2 record then they can earn a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they fail to win the Big East tournament.
Arizona State 81, Washington State 70
This seemed like it would be a dominating win for Arizona State, but it ended up being a little bit of a nailbiter. A 25-10 run by Washington State early in the second half made this one close, but in the end they ran out of steam. Wazzu did a good job of hustling here, winning nine extra offensive rebounds and six extra turnovers, meaning a lot of extra shots. Usually a team wins when they get 11 more shots from the field, but Arizona State kept finding open shots, and they kept hitting them, at a 57% clip from the field. And Washington State just could not get that big shot from star Klay Thompson, who was a volume shooter here with 20 points on 20 shots, including 2-for-10 behind the arc. The win moves Arizona State to 6-4 in the Pac-10, in a tie for second place in the conference behind 7-4 California. The Sun Devils are a solid 16-7 overall, but only 2-6 against the RPI Top 100. They have no particulary bad losses, but their best win is over San Diego State. With as bad as the Pac-10 is, they could go 11-7 and still miss the NCAA Tournament. In fact, I'd bet against it: I think they've got to go 12-6 and then win at least one more game in the Pac-10 tournament. Washington State's numbers are even worse, as they have fallen off the bubble altogether. They are 4-6 in the Pac-10, but an atrocious 5-8 against the RPI Top 200. Their RPI has slipped all the way to 110th in the nation. They'd have to win four or five games in a row just to get themselves back in the bubble discussion.
Dayton 90, Xavier 65
It seems like Dayton got a lot of frustrations out of their system this game. The preseason Atlantic Ten favorites have had a frustrating and disappointing season, but they were absolutely dominant over a quality Xavier squad here. The Flyers shot 56% from the field (including 54% behind the arc), and won the rebounding battle over an undersized Xavier squad by 17. Dayton is a deceptively good rebounding team, and I actually think they're the best in the conference. At 5-3 in the A-10 they are only in a tie for sixth place, but they could move up with a very easy next two weeks. They are 16-6 overall, including 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, with this win or a win over Georgia Tech being the best of the bunch. This win pushes their RPI up to 31st, and they are in a battle with Rhode Island for third place in the A-10 pecking order (I still think that Xavier is clearly ahead of both of those teams, and obviously Temple has the best resume in the conference). For Xavier, this is a game that they knew would be tough to win, so it is not a bad loss - even if the margin of victory is disappointing. They now fall out of a tie for first place into second at 8-2, with a chance to grab first place back in two weekends when they head to Charlotte. They also get a chance for another nice win next Saturday when they have a bizarre game against Florida (I'd love it if somebody could inform me why that game was scheduled for February). Xavier still has no bad losses, and have quality wins over Cincinnati, Rhode Island and Dayton. They are 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, and their RPI remains 26th. If they can beat Florida next weekend and then get to 12-6 in A-10 play (a 4-2 finish) then it's hard to see them not making the NCAA Tournament.
Tar Heels Lose... Again
Virginia Tech 74, North Carolina 70
This was a much better effort from North Carolina after that embarrassing performance against Virginia, but Virginia Tech is a very good team that is difficult to beat at home, and in the end the Hokies pulled out a close one. Ed Davis did a good job of getting to the line, and Marcus Ginyard looked like an elite perimeter defender for the first time in a while. But it's getting to the point that North Carolina can't afford too many more "quality" losses. They are now only 2-5 in the ACC with a difficult upcoming schedule (at Maryland, vs Duke), knowing that they probably have to get to 7-9 to make the NCAA Tournament. Even 7-9 might not be enough to get them in. As for Virginia Tech, it seems likely that they'll stay on the bubble the rest of the season. This nice win moves them to 4-3 in the ACC, with a 5-4 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 70th, but that mostly has to do with a very weak schedule, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS (a much better metric of potential Selection Committee support than the RPI) is 31st. If the season ended now they'd probably actually make the NCAA Tournament despite that bad RPI, although they'd be one of the last in. They'll have an excellent chance of getting in if they can make it to 8-8 in ACC play and then win at least one ACC tournament game.
Notre Dame 83, Cincinnati 65
Luke Harangody got Yancy Gates in foul trouble, and with the Cincy big man out of the game it was open season for the Irish big man. Harangody blew up for 37 points and 14 rebounds, and Notre Dame won the rebounding battle despite the fact that Tim Abromaitis fouled out of the game. Ben Hansbrough also had a great game, with 12 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds. Every time I watch him all I have to do is squint my eyes and I think I'm watching Kyle McAlarney, except perhaps with not quite the three point range. He has clearly grown into the position of floor leader for the Irish. Notre Dame now moves to 5-5 with a very easy upcoming schedule (vs USF, at Seton Hall, vs St. John's). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 58th (keep in mind that only about one team per year makes the Tournament outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50). As for the Cincy, they are also now 5-5, but with a much tougher upcoming schedule. If they can get to 9-9 in Big East play then it means that they probably collected at least one more big win, to go along with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, and they will most likely make the NCAA Tournament.
Maryland 71, Florida State 67
Greivis Vasquez took Maryland on his back here with 23 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists against an outstanding Florida State defense. Maryland also deserves a lot of credit as a team for getting down low and forcing Florida State's big men to kick the ball out to their bad perimeter shooters, and allowing them to basically fight to a draw on the boards despite being much smaller. Vasquez, a guard, actually led the team in rebounds. Maryland continues to hang around the top of the ACC with a 5-2 record, with important home games coming up against North Carolina and Virginia. They then play at Duke next Saturday, in a game that they need to win if they're going to make a run at the ACC title. Florida State, on the other hand, continues to confound me. For about five or six weeks now they've been either one of the two or three first teams out of my field of 65, or the first team in. They have great defense and horrible offense, and so every game with them is close and competitive. This loss drops them to 4-4 in the ACC and 16-6 overall, with a 6-5 record against the RPI Top 100, with two wins over Georgia Tech being their two best wins. Their RPI is 47th, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 37th, their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 28th and Pomeroy has them 24th. If the season ended now they'd be in the Tournament, but not by much. They will very likely be in the NCAA Tournament if they get to 8-8 in the ACC. If they go 7-9 and play well in the ACC tournament then they will have a fairly good shot as well.
This was a much better effort from North Carolina after that embarrassing performance against Virginia, but Virginia Tech is a very good team that is difficult to beat at home, and in the end the Hokies pulled out a close one. Ed Davis did a good job of getting to the line, and Marcus Ginyard looked like an elite perimeter defender for the first time in a while. But it's getting to the point that North Carolina can't afford too many more "quality" losses. They are now only 2-5 in the ACC with a difficult upcoming schedule (at Maryland, vs Duke), knowing that they probably have to get to 7-9 to make the NCAA Tournament. Even 7-9 might not be enough to get them in. As for Virginia Tech, it seems likely that they'll stay on the bubble the rest of the season. This nice win moves them to 4-3 in the ACC, with a 5-4 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 70th, but that mostly has to do with a very weak schedule, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS (a much better metric of potential Selection Committee support than the RPI) is 31st. If the season ended now they'd probably actually make the NCAA Tournament despite that bad RPI, although they'd be one of the last in. They'll have an excellent chance of getting in if they can make it to 8-8 in ACC play and then win at least one ACC tournament game.
Notre Dame 83, Cincinnati 65
Luke Harangody got Yancy Gates in foul trouble, and with the Cincy big man out of the game it was open season for the Irish big man. Harangody blew up for 37 points and 14 rebounds, and Notre Dame won the rebounding battle despite the fact that Tim Abromaitis fouled out of the game. Ben Hansbrough also had a great game, with 12 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds. Every time I watch him all I have to do is squint my eyes and I think I'm watching Kyle McAlarney, except perhaps with not quite the three point range. He has clearly grown into the position of floor leader for the Irish. Notre Dame now moves to 5-5 with a very easy upcoming schedule (vs USF, at Seton Hall, vs St. John's). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 58th (keep in mind that only about one team per year makes the Tournament outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50). As for the Cincy, they are also now 5-5, but with a much tougher upcoming schedule. If they can get to 9-9 in Big East play then it means that they probably collected at least one more big win, to go along with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, and they will most likely make the NCAA Tournament.
Maryland 71, Florida State 67
Greivis Vasquez took Maryland on his back here with 23 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists against an outstanding Florida State defense. Maryland also deserves a lot of credit as a team for getting down low and forcing Florida State's big men to kick the ball out to their bad perimeter shooters, and allowing them to basically fight to a draw on the boards despite being much smaller. Vasquez, a guard, actually led the team in rebounds. Maryland continues to hang around the top of the ACC with a 5-2 record, with important home games coming up against North Carolina and Virginia. They then play at Duke next Saturday, in a game that they need to win if they're going to make a run at the ACC title. Florida State, on the other hand, continues to confound me. For about five or six weeks now they've been either one of the two or three first teams out of my field of 65, or the first team in. They have great defense and horrible offense, and so every game with them is close and competitive. This loss drops them to 4-4 in the ACC and 16-6 overall, with a 6-5 record against the RPI Top 100, with two wins over Georgia Tech being their two best wins. Their RPI is 47th, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 37th, their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 28th and Pomeroy has them 24th. If the season ended now they'd be in the Tournament, but not by much. They will very likely be in the NCAA Tournament if they get to 8-8 in the ACC. If they go 7-9 and play well in the ACC tournament then they will have a fairly good shot as well.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Conference USA Continues To Be A Mess
Memphis 85, UAB 75
The final score doesn't do justice to how close this game was. Neither team led by more than six points the entire game until the final minute of the second half. UAB is actually a convenient match-up for Memphis for two reasons. For one, Memphis has a big problem with depth, but UAB isn't deep either. Memphis was able to win while getting 54 of their 85 points from Elliot Williams and Wesley Witherspoon. In addition, the biggest weakness that Memphis has is defensive rebounding, yet UAB is a very small team that often goes with a four guard lineup and only collected ten offensive rebounds (basically a draw, since Memphis had eight of their own). This game result also continues to muddle up the picture in Conference USA. As I've been saying for a while now, the key for the conference being a multi-bid conference in the NCAA Tournament is for two or three teams to separate themselves. Marshall has seemingly fallen off the bubble, so the five team logjam has turned into a four team logjam, but that's still too many teams together. The conference will not get four Tournament teams. Memphis is one game off the conference lead at 6-2, but Sagarin rates them the top team, narrowly ahead of UTEP. Pomeroy goes the other way, putting UTEP slightly ahead of Memphis. But UTEP is actually tied atop the conference standings with Tulsa, with both at 7-1. And none of that mentions UAB, the team that seemed to have the best Tournament resume of any of these C-USA teams just a week ago. Even with this loss UAB is still 18-4 overall, including 4-4 against the RPI Top 100, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is best in the conference at 38th. They can probably afford one more regular season loss while still making the NCAA Tournament, but a second loss before the C-USA tournament will put them firmly on the bubble. As for Memphis, they are still only 3-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a couple of bad losses (SMU and UMass). There's no chance they'd earn an at-large bid if the season ended now. But even though they have long odds for an at-large bid, I still like their chances to win the conference tournament because they have the team experience, and also have the most pure talent in the league, and the confidence of all of their dominance in recent years.
#22 Northern Iowa 59, Wichita State 56
Northern Iowa pretty much was the definition of a team grinding out a game here. They were ice cold from the field, but they dominated the boards (32 to 22), and earned eight more shots from the field and five more from the line. Their starting lineup has three stars (Adam Koch, Jordan Eglseder and Kwadzo Ahelegbe), and all three played well here. Northern Iowa has been below the radar because they don't have any big wins. This was probably their best win of the season. But even without the attention-grabbing win, their resume's pure numbers are fairly overwhelming. They are 7-1 against the RPI Top 100, and 20-2 overall, with an overall Sagarin rating that has snuck into the Top 30 in the nation. They can probably afford two losses in their final seven games while still staying a safe NCAA Tournament team. Wichita State is the best hope the Missouri Valley has for a second at-large team, but their chances are starting to get long with this loss. They are 8-4 in the Missouri Valley and 4-2 against the RPI Top 100 (including wins over Texas Tech and Northern Iowa), but they also have several mediocre losses (Illinois State, Drake, Creighton). Their RPI is 47th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 45th. If the season ended now they'd probably miss the NCAA Tournament as one of the first teams out. But the Missouri Valley isn't what it used to be, and it's very difficult for a Valley team to work its way back into the field of 65 after it has fallen out. They get an opportunity for another quality out-of-conference win at Utah State during Bracketbusters, but overall they can probably afford only one more loss in the regular season if they're going to be a likely at-large contender on Selection Sunday.
Texas A&M 77, Missouri 74
This was a fairly surprising result, even though Texas A&M seems to always have Mike Anderson's number (they are the only Big 12 team he hasn't beaten since he became coach at Missouri). The Aggies are a pesky team that has the ability to hang with just about any team. Missouri forced 20 turnovers, which is par for the course for the team ranked first in the nation with 12 steals per game. But Texas A&M more than made up the difference by completely dominating inside, collecting 15 offensive rebounds (compared to 16 defensive rebounds for Missouri), leading to a whole lot of easy baskets and free throws for their big men. Texas A&M's front line took 25 free throws, which is more than the 21 that the entire Missouri team took. They also managed to foul out Keith Ramsey and Zaire Taylor, and put two other Missouri players into foul trouble. With this nice win Texas A&M moves into a tie for third place in the Big 12 at 5-3, and they conveniently still have home games left against Kansas, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State. They will very likely make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 9-7. If they finish 8-8 then their at-large hopes will likely come down to their play in the Big 12 tournament. As for Missouri, they fall to 4-3 but have a fairly easy remaining schedule (five of their nine games remaining come against the three worst teams in the conference: Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa State). Sagarin and Pomeroy both rate them as one of the five best teams in the Big 12, a conference which will get at least six Tournament teams. They are still in a very good position.
The final score doesn't do justice to how close this game was. Neither team led by more than six points the entire game until the final minute of the second half. UAB is actually a convenient match-up for Memphis for two reasons. For one, Memphis has a big problem with depth, but UAB isn't deep either. Memphis was able to win while getting 54 of their 85 points from Elliot Williams and Wesley Witherspoon. In addition, the biggest weakness that Memphis has is defensive rebounding, yet UAB is a very small team that often goes with a four guard lineup and only collected ten offensive rebounds (basically a draw, since Memphis had eight of their own). This game result also continues to muddle up the picture in Conference USA. As I've been saying for a while now, the key for the conference being a multi-bid conference in the NCAA Tournament is for two or three teams to separate themselves. Marshall has seemingly fallen off the bubble, so the five team logjam has turned into a four team logjam, but that's still too many teams together. The conference will not get four Tournament teams. Memphis is one game off the conference lead at 6-2, but Sagarin rates them the top team, narrowly ahead of UTEP. Pomeroy goes the other way, putting UTEP slightly ahead of Memphis. But UTEP is actually tied atop the conference standings with Tulsa, with both at 7-1. And none of that mentions UAB, the team that seemed to have the best Tournament resume of any of these C-USA teams just a week ago. Even with this loss UAB is still 18-4 overall, including 4-4 against the RPI Top 100, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is best in the conference at 38th. They can probably afford one more regular season loss while still making the NCAA Tournament, but a second loss before the C-USA tournament will put them firmly on the bubble. As for Memphis, they are still only 3-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a couple of bad losses (SMU and UMass). There's no chance they'd earn an at-large bid if the season ended now. But even though they have long odds for an at-large bid, I still like their chances to win the conference tournament because they have the team experience, and also have the most pure talent in the league, and the confidence of all of their dominance in recent years.
#22 Northern Iowa 59, Wichita State 56
Northern Iowa pretty much was the definition of a team grinding out a game here. They were ice cold from the field, but they dominated the boards (32 to 22), and earned eight more shots from the field and five more from the line. Their starting lineup has three stars (Adam Koch, Jordan Eglseder and Kwadzo Ahelegbe), and all three played well here. Northern Iowa has been below the radar because they don't have any big wins. This was probably their best win of the season. But even without the attention-grabbing win, their resume's pure numbers are fairly overwhelming. They are 7-1 against the RPI Top 100, and 20-2 overall, with an overall Sagarin rating that has snuck into the Top 30 in the nation. They can probably afford two losses in their final seven games while still staying a safe NCAA Tournament team. Wichita State is the best hope the Missouri Valley has for a second at-large team, but their chances are starting to get long with this loss. They are 8-4 in the Missouri Valley and 4-2 against the RPI Top 100 (including wins over Texas Tech and Northern Iowa), but they also have several mediocre losses (Illinois State, Drake, Creighton). Their RPI is 47th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 45th. If the season ended now they'd probably miss the NCAA Tournament as one of the first teams out. But the Missouri Valley isn't what it used to be, and it's very difficult for a Valley team to work its way back into the field of 65 after it has fallen out. They get an opportunity for another quality out-of-conference win at Utah State during Bracketbusters, but overall they can probably afford only one more loss in the regular season if they're going to be a likely at-large contender on Selection Sunday.
Texas A&M 77, Missouri 74
This was a fairly surprising result, even though Texas A&M seems to always have Mike Anderson's number (they are the only Big 12 team he hasn't beaten since he became coach at Missouri). The Aggies are a pesky team that has the ability to hang with just about any team. Missouri forced 20 turnovers, which is par for the course for the team ranked first in the nation with 12 steals per game. But Texas A&M more than made up the difference by completely dominating inside, collecting 15 offensive rebounds (compared to 16 defensive rebounds for Missouri), leading to a whole lot of easy baskets and free throws for their big men. Texas A&M's front line took 25 free throws, which is more than the 21 that the entire Missouri team took. They also managed to foul out Keith Ramsey and Zaire Taylor, and put two other Missouri players into foul trouble. With this nice win Texas A&M moves into a tie for third place in the Big 12 at 5-3, and they conveniently still have home games left against Kansas, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State. They will very likely make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 9-7. If they finish 8-8 then their at-large hopes will likely come down to their play in the Big 12 tournament. As for Missouri, they fall to 4-3 but have a fairly easy remaining schedule (five of their nine games remaining come against the three worst teams in the conference: Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa State). Sagarin and Pomeroy both rate them as one of the five best teams in the Big 12, a conference which will get at least six Tournament teams. They are still in a very good position.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Wisconsin Hammers Michigan State
#16 Wisconsin 67, #5 Michigan State 49
You had to have the sense that Wisconsin still had life in them even without Jon Leuer after that solid effort they put up in a close loss at Purdue, and Tom Izzo has never won a game at the Kohl Center, but I don't think anybody saw this kind of a domination coming. Wisconsin opened up a ten point lead in the first five minutes of the game, and it was never close after that. The story of the game in the end, however, will be the Kalin Lucas injury. With about ten minutes left in the second half he rolled his ankle and sprained it, and it remains a question mark how long he'll be out. He still hasn't practiced since the injury, and is officially being called "questionable" for Saturday's game at Illinois. Michigan State came into this game 9-0 in the Big Ten, but it was about as soft of a 9-0 as you can have. They've played a very easy schedule, largely at home, and even so required a number of very close final-moment victories. In addition to the coming game at Illinois they also have a home-and-home remaining with Purdue. Even if Lucas doesn't miss another game I still don't think Michigan State ends up better than 14-4 in the Big Ten. That opens things up for teams like Wisconsin, a team whose Big Ten schedule has been the polar opposite of Michigan State's. They've already played a home-and-home against Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State, and their three Big Ten losses have been those three road games. Their remaining schedule is almost exclusively against the bottom half of the Big Ten. They could easily end up with a share of the Big Ten title, particularly if Jon Leuer is able to return soon.
South Florida 72, #8 Georgetown 64
It's hard to find a player more confident right now than Dominique Jones. He had 22 points in the second half of this game as South Florida overcame a nine point halftime deficit to win fairly convincingly at a Georgetown team that had destroyed Duke in their previous home game. Not only is Jones making noise as a potential Big East Player of the Year, he's also got his South Florida team 5-5 in the Big East and into the bubble picture for the first time basically ever. Certainly the first time since they moved to the Big East. This win pushes their RPI up to 48th, and they are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown and only one bad loss (to Central Michigan). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 49th and their PREDICTOR is 66th. If the season ended now they wouldn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they'd be one of the teams seriously considered by the Selection Committee. They have upcoming road games at Notre Dame and Marquette, but after that their schedule really is not that bad. They only have one game that isn't eminently winnable (at Villanova), and also have convenient home games against a couple of the teams they're fighting against for an at-large bid (Cincinnati and UConn). They will have to get to 9-9 or better to earn that at-large bid. As for Georgetown, they fall to 6-4 and a full four losses behind first placed Villanova. They get a home game against Villanova on Saturday, which will be their last shot at any hope of a share of the Big East regular season title. They remain in the discussion for a 2 or a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can finish well, even if they don't win the Big East.
#6 West Virginia 70, #21 Pittsburgh 51
Maybe the phrase "Backyard Brawl" shouldn't just be reserved for the football games between these two schools. This game was ugly in almost every way. Pitt couldn't hit a shot to save their lives, hitting 30% from the field, 20% behind the arc and 61% from the line. And even worse, West Virginia fans started tossing stuff onto the court to the point that a Pitt assistant coach was actually hit in the head, forcing referees to award Pitt a technical foul, and Bob Huggins to go on the PA system to tell the fans to stop acting stupidly. It's not the first time any of us have seen fans throwing things on a court, but it's hard to recall a case where fans did that while their team was winning easily. West Virginia never trailed in this game, and the game was never even tied other than 2-2 in the opening moments - you'd think the fans would just be happy with the win. And it's a big win for a West Virginia team that still believes it has a shot at a share of the Big East title. They are two losses behind Villanova, but they get Villanova at home on Monday night, just two days after Villanova heads to Georgetown. Certainly it seems like either West Virginia, Villanova or Syracuse will end up being the conference champion. Pitt, on the other hand, has lost four of their last five to fall to 6-4 in the Big East. They still have chances for big wins, with home games against Villanova and West Virginia remaining, but they also have a chance of falling all the way to the bubble. They need to get to ten Big East wins to assure themselves a spot in the Tournament. At 9-9 or 8-10 they will be on the bubble.
You had to have the sense that Wisconsin still had life in them even without Jon Leuer after that solid effort they put up in a close loss at Purdue, and Tom Izzo has never won a game at the Kohl Center, but I don't think anybody saw this kind of a domination coming. Wisconsin opened up a ten point lead in the first five minutes of the game, and it was never close after that. The story of the game in the end, however, will be the Kalin Lucas injury. With about ten minutes left in the second half he rolled his ankle and sprained it, and it remains a question mark how long he'll be out. He still hasn't practiced since the injury, and is officially being called "questionable" for Saturday's game at Illinois. Michigan State came into this game 9-0 in the Big Ten, but it was about as soft of a 9-0 as you can have. They've played a very easy schedule, largely at home, and even so required a number of very close final-moment victories. In addition to the coming game at Illinois they also have a home-and-home remaining with Purdue. Even if Lucas doesn't miss another game I still don't think Michigan State ends up better than 14-4 in the Big Ten. That opens things up for teams like Wisconsin, a team whose Big Ten schedule has been the polar opposite of Michigan State's. They've already played a home-and-home against Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State, and their three Big Ten losses have been those three road games. Their remaining schedule is almost exclusively against the bottom half of the Big Ten. They could easily end up with a share of the Big Ten title, particularly if Jon Leuer is able to return soon.
South Florida 72, #8 Georgetown 64
It's hard to find a player more confident right now than Dominique Jones. He had 22 points in the second half of this game as South Florida overcame a nine point halftime deficit to win fairly convincingly at a Georgetown team that had destroyed Duke in their previous home game. Not only is Jones making noise as a potential Big East Player of the Year, he's also got his South Florida team 5-5 in the Big East and into the bubble picture for the first time basically ever. Certainly the first time since they moved to the Big East. This win pushes their RPI up to 48th, and they are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown and only one bad loss (to Central Michigan). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 49th and their PREDICTOR is 66th. If the season ended now they wouldn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they'd be one of the teams seriously considered by the Selection Committee. They have upcoming road games at Notre Dame and Marquette, but after that their schedule really is not that bad. They only have one game that isn't eminently winnable (at Villanova), and also have convenient home games against a couple of the teams they're fighting against for an at-large bid (Cincinnati and UConn). They will have to get to 9-9 or better to earn that at-large bid. As for Georgetown, they fall to 6-4 and a full four losses behind first placed Villanova. They get a home game against Villanova on Saturday, which will be their last shot at any hope of a share of the Big East regular season title. They remain in the discussion for a 2 or a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can finish well, even if they don't win the Big East.
#6 West Virginia 70, #21 Pittsburgh 51
Maybe the phrase "Backyard Brawl" shouldn't just be reserved for the football games between these two schools. This game was ugly in almost every way. Pitt couldn't hit a shot to save their lives, hitting 30% from the field, 20% behind the arc and 61% from the line. And even worse, West Virginia fans started tossing stuff onto the court to the point that a Pitt assistant coach was actually hit in the head, forcing referees to award Pitt a technical foul, and Bob Huggins to go on the PA system to tell the fans to stop acting stupidly. It's not the first time any of us have seen fans throwing things on a court, but it's hard to recall a case where fans did that while their team was winning easily. West Virginia never trailed in this game, and the game was never even tied other than 2-2 in the opening moments - you'd think the fans would just be happy with the win. And it's a big win for a West Virginia team that still believes it has a shot at a share of the Big East title. They are two losses behind Villanova, but they get Villanova at home on Monday night, just two days after Villanova heads to Georgetown. Certainly it seems like either West Virginia, Villanova or Syracuse will end up being the conference champion. Pitt, on the other hand, has lost four of their last five to fall to 6-4 in the Big East. They still have chances for big wins, with home games against Villanova and West Virginia remaining, but they also have a chance of falling all the way to the bubble. They need to get to ten Big East wins to assure themselves a spot in the Tournament. At 9-9 or 8-10 they will be on the bubble.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Louisville Dominates UConn
Louisville 82, UConn 69
This was never much of a game at all. Louisville opened up a double digit lead in the first ten minutes of the game, cruised to a 14 point halftime lead, got it up to 19 before some sloppy play temporarily got the lead down to seven before the Cardinals cleaned things up and closed out the game. I mentioned the sloppy play because it has become increasingly clear how bad UConn's offense is in half court sets. Pomeroy rates their offense 72nd overall, but that's distorted by how many transition offensive possessions they have because they force a lot of turnovers, they block a lot of shots, and they force a lot of bad shots that give long rebounds. Their two-point, three-point and free throw shooting percentages are all well outside the Top 100 in the country. They remind me a lot of Florida State, another team that blows inferior teams off the floor with their athleticism, but just finds it incredibly difficult to score against elite teams that don't give the ball away. And it's because of those facts that they are really a bubble team at this point. UConn is now 3-6 in the Big East with two very difficult games in their next four (at Syracuse, at Villanova). They'll almost definitely make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 8-10, but that is going to be no easy feat. Louisville moves to 5-4 with as easy a game as you can have in the Big East coming up next (vs Rutgers). But the tail end of their regular season schedule is really quite rough, so it will do Louisville well to try to wrap up that at-large bid over the next three weeks.
#21 Clemson 62, Maryland 53
Neither team could hit an outside shot in this game, so it came down to which team could create more easy shots. Clemson won the turnover battle by five (although with 47 total turnovers in the game, both teams got a whole lot of transition layups), but the real difference was post play, with Trevor Booker and Jerai Grant just shoving around the Maryland front line for a combined 28 points and 28 rebounds. By dominating the rebounding battle Clemson ended up with 17 more shots from the field and five more shots from the line. It would take an epic difference in shooting percentage for a team which takes that many more shots to lose a game. This win only pushes Clemson to 4-4, but the first half of their ACC schedule was a whole lot tougher than their second half will be. Their remaining schedule really isn't that bad at all, and I'd be shocked if they finish worse than 8-8. As for Maryland, they now fall to 4-2 with a much more difficult upcoming schedule. They head to Florida State, and then have home games against the perplexing North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers, and then have a road game at Duke. Maryland probably needs to get to 8-8 to earn an at-large bid. I don't think they have the resume to get in at 7-9, although that could always change if we have a weak bubble this season.
#10 Texas 72, Oklahoma State 60
Depth is always a big issue in college basketball, and not just because you may need somebody to step up if an injury happens. Texas had lost three of four since moving to #1 in the nation, and was down ten points on the road to a very good Oklahoma State team, with players like Dexter Pittman and Justin Mason unable to get anything going. But Rick Barnes has a team that goes 10 or 11 players deep, and he was able to just try different combinations until something clicked, and in this game it was relatively unknown true freshman Jordan Hamilton who clicked. Hamilton was overshadowed in the Texas recruiting class by Avery Bradley, but he was a big time blue chipper nonetheless, and despite previously having a career high 17 points against Texas A&M Corpus-Christi he blew up for 27 points in only 19 minutes on the floor here. Even if not for the losing streak this still would have been a very big for Texas in the hunt for a 1 seed, which is still possible even if the regular season Big 12 title is looking unlikely. They can't afford to lose more than one or two more games if they're going to have a good shot at a top seed. As for Oklahoma State, you have to hope that the little sideline scuffle (I believe it was between Marshall Moses and Matt Pilgrim) doesn't mean much, because as well as they've played they haven't won anything yet. This loss drops them to 4-4 in the Big 12 with four very tough road games still remaining (Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A&M). They'd have a good shot at the NCAA Tournament even if they only finish 7-9, but you never want to have to enter your conference tournament needing to either win the whole thing or to get some help from around the nation.
This was never much of a game at all. Louisville opened up a double digit lead in the first ten minutes of the game, cruised to a 14 point halftime lead, got it up to 19 before some sloppy play temporarily got the lead down to seven before the Cardinals cleaned things up and closed out the game. I mentioned the sloppy play because it has become increasingly clear how bad UConn's offense is in half court sets. Pomeroy rates their offense 72nd overall, but that's distorted by how many transition offensive possessions they have because they force a lot of turnovers, they block a lot of shots, and they force a lot of bad shots that give long rebounds. Their two-point, three-point and free throw shooting percentages are all well outside the Top 100 in the country. They remind me a lot of Florida State, another team that blows inferior teams off the floor with their athleticism, but just finds it incredibly difficult to score against elite teams that don't give the ball away. And it's because of those facts that they are really a bubble team at this point. UConn is now 3-6 in the Big East with two very difficult games in their next four (at Syracuse, at Villanova). They'll almost definitely make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 8-10, but that is going to be no easy feat. Louisville moves to 5-4 with as easy a game as you can have in the Big East coming up next (vs Rutgers). But the tail end of their regular season schedule is really quite rough, so it will do Louisville well to try to wrap up that at-large bid over the next three weeks.
#21 Clemson 62, Maryland 53
Neither team could hit an outside shot in this game, so it came down to which team could create more easy shots. Clemson won the turnover battle by five (although with 47 total turnovers in the game, both teams got a whole lot of transition layups), but the real difference was post play, with Trevor Booker and Jerai Grant just shoving around the Maryland front line for a combined 28 points and 28 rebounds. By dominating the rebounding battle Clemson ended up with 17 more shots from the field and five more shots from the line. It would take an epic difference in shooting percentage for a team which takes that many more shots to lose a game. This win only pushes Clemson to 4-4, but the first half of their ACC schedule was a whole lot tougher than their second half will be. Their remaining schedule really isn't that bad at all, and I'd be shocked if they finish worse than 8-8. As for Maryland, they now fall to 4-2 with a much more difficult upcoming schedule. They head to Florida State, and then have home games against the perplexing North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers, and then have a road game at Duke. Maryland probably needs to get to 8-8 to earn an at-large bid. I don't think they have the resume to get in at 7-9, although that could always change if we have a weak bubble this season.
#10 Texas 72, Oklahoma State 60
Depth is always a big issue in college basketball, and not just because you may need somebody to step up if an injury happens. Texas had lost three of four since moving to #1 in the nation, and was down ten points on the road to a very good Oklahoma State team, with players like Dexter Pittman and Justin Mason unable to get anything going. But Rick Barnes has a team that goes 10 or 11 players deep, and he was able to just try different combinations until something clicked, and in this game it was relatively unknown true freshman Jordan Hamilton who clicked. Hamilton was overshadowed in the Texas recruiting class by Avery Bradley, but he was a big time blue chipper nonetheless, and despite previously having a career high 17 points against Texas A&M Corpus-Christi he blew up for 27 points in only 19 minutes on the floor here. Even if not for the losing streak this still would have been a very big for Texas in the hunt for a 1 seed, which is still possible even if the regular season Big 12 title is looking unlikely. They can't afford to lose more than one or two more games if they're going to have a good shot at a top seed. As for Oklahoma State, you have to hope that the little sideline scuffle (I believe it was between Marshall Moses and Matt Pilgrim) doesn't mean much, because as well as they've played they haven't won anything yet. This loss drops them to 4-4 in the Big 12 with four very tough road games still remaining (Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A&M). They'd have a good shot at the NCAA Tournament even if they only finish 7-9, but you never want to have to enter your conference tournament needing to either win the whole thing or to get some help from around the nation.
Monday, February 01, 2010
Is South Florida A Possible Tournament Team?
South Florida 70, #17 Pittsburgh 61
Nobody has paid much attention to South Florida since they've moved to the Big East because they just haven't been relevant. Stan Heath hasn't been able to attract big time recruits, so he's focused on finding underrated recruits, and transfers. He does have one actual elite player: Dominique Jones, who exploded for 37 points here. As a team they're not particularly good at anything, but they're not really bad at anything either, and they hang in there against good teams and give themselves a chance to win. Now that they've finally collected a big scalp it's worth looking at their overall resume: they're 14-7 overall and 4-5 in the Big East, with a 5-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 54th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 71st. They wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended right now, but they're closer than you'd think. They now play three straight road games, at Georgetown, Notre Dame and Marquette. If they can win at least one of those games they'll stay in the at-large discussion, particularly with a pretty easy end to the regular season. They need to get to at least 9-9 in the Big East to have a shot. As for Pitt, they now fall to 6-3 in the Big East with a big road game at West Virginia looming. They've lost three of four, and seem to be struggling a bit from the high expectations suddenly placed on a fairly young team after a quick start to the season. With a difficult schedule ahead even after the West Virginia game, it's still not out of the question that Pitt will fall all the way back to the bubble.
#14 Tennessee 61, Florida 60
Neither team seemed to particularly want to win this game. Neither team shot the ball particularly well, and there were a lot of turnovers for how slow the pace of the game was. The only player who had a very good game was probably Florida's Alex Tyus (18 points on 7-for-11 shooting, along with seven rebounds). But for Tennessee, it's big to play this poorly and still collect a quality win. Coming off a bad home loss to Vanderbilt they were in danger of really falling back in the SEC standings. This coming week will be pretty easy for them, but the following week has road games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. If Tennessee is going to finish in the top two of the SEC East, they've got to at least split those two games. As for Florida, they continue to struggle to win close games against good teams in the SEC. They have two RPI Top 50 wins this season, but both happened back in November. They're only 4-5 against the RPI Top 100 (not even including a very bad loss to South Alabama), and their RPI has fallen out of the Top 50. At the moment they're a bubble team, and at 4-3 in the SEC they cannot afford to finish worse than 9-7 if they're going to get an at-large bid. Home games later this season against Tennessee and Vanderbilt could be crucial chances for late season wins over elite opponents.
Arizona 76, California 72
Arizona is a very young team that is still growing, but the one really experienced star that they have is Nic Wise, and he was a star in this game. He scored 30 points including seven in the final minute of the game to lead Arizona to a huge home victory. Believe it or not, Arizona is actually tied for first place in the Pac-10 at 6-3 with Cal. Normally a 6-3 Pac-10 record would be impressive, but the Pac-10 is arguably the worst BCS conference in the last two decades, and could still potentially be a one-bid league. Arizona is only 12-9, with a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 77th. It's very rare for teams to earn at-large bids without an ELO_CHESS inside the Top 50. If Arizona can get to 12-6 then they'll have to garner respect from the Selection Committee, but at 11-7 or worse they're probably NIT bound at best. But just the fact that we're talking about them as a potential at-large team in February is fairly incredible after how badly they played in November and December. Sean Miller has done a great job this season. As for California, they still have the best computer numbers in the conference, as both Sagarin and Pomeroy have them as one of the Top 25 teams in the nation. But with a 14-7 record, including 0-4 against the RPI Top 50, they're still a bubble team at the moment. They probably have to get to 11-7 in the Pac-10 to earn an at-large bid.
Nobody has paid much attention to South Florida since they've moved to the Big East because they just haven't been relevant. Stan Heath hasn't been able to attract big time recruits, so he's focused on finding underrated recruits, and transfers. He does have one actual elite player: Dominique Jones, who exploded for 37 points here. As a team they're not particularly good at anything, but they're not really bad at anything either, and they hang in there against good teams and give themselves a chance to win. Now that they've finally collected a big scalp it's worth looking at their overall resume: they're 14-7 overall and 4-5 in the Big East, with a 5-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 54th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 71st. They wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended right now, but they're closer than you'd think. They now play three straight road games, at Georgetown, Notre Dame and Marquette. If they can win at least one of those games they'll stay in the at-large discussion, particularly with a pretty easy end to the regular season. They need to get to at least 9-9 in the Big East to have a shot. As for Pitt, they now fall to 6-3 in the Big East with a big road game at West Virginia looming. They've lost three of four, and seem to be struggling a bit from the high expectations suddenly placed on a fairly young team after a quick start to the season. With a difficult schedule ahead even after the West Virginia game, it's still not out of the question that Pitt will fall all the way back to the bubble.
#14 Tennessee 61, Florida 60
Neither team seemed to particularly want to win this game. Neither team shot the ball particularly well, and there were a lot of turnovers for how slow the pace of the game was. The only player who had a very good game was probably Florida's Alex Tyus (18 points on 7-for-11 shooting, along with seven rebounds). But for Tennessee, it's big to play this poorly and still collect a quality win. Coming off a bad home loss to Vanderbilt they were in danger of really falling back in the SEC standings. This coming week will be pretty easy for them, but the following week has road games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. If Tennessee is going to finish in the top two of the SEC East, they've got to at least split those two games. As for Florida, they continue to struggle to win close games against good teams in the SEC. They have two RPI Top 50 wins this season, but both happened back in November. They're only 4-5 against the RPI Top 100 (not even including a very bad loss to South Alabama), and their RPI has fallen out of the Top 50. At the moment they're a bubble team, and at 4-3 in the SEC they cannot afford to finish worse than 9-7 if they're going to get an at-large bid. Home games later this season against Tennessee and Vanderbilt could be crucial chances for late season wins over elite opponents.
Arizona 76, California 72
Arizona is a very young team that is still growing, but the one really experienced star that they have is Nic Wise, and he was a star in this game. He scored 30 points including seven in the final minute of the game to lead Arizona to a huge home victory. Believe it or not, Arizona is actually tied for first place in the Pac-10 at 6-3 with Cal. Normally a 6-3 Pac-10 record would be impressive, but the Pac-10 is arguably the worst BCS conference in the last two decades, and could still potentially be a one-bid league. Arizona is only 12-9, with a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 77th. It's very rare for teams to earn at-large bids without an ELO_CHESS inside the Top 50. If Arizona can get to 12-6 then they'll have to garner respect from the Selection Committee, but at 11-7 or worse they're probably NIT bound at best. But just the fact that we're talking about them as a potential at-large team in February is fairly incredible after how badly they played in November and December. Sean Miller has done a great job this season. As for California, they still have the best computer numbers in the conference, as both Sagarin and Pomeroy have them as one of the Top 25 teams in the nation. But with a 14-7 record, including 0-4 against the RPI Top 50, they're still a bubble team at the moment. They probably have to get to 11-7 in the Pac-10 to earn an at-large bid.
Kansas Holds Off Kansas State
#2 Kansas 81, #13 Kansas State 79, OT
Kansas State's fans were motivated for this one, with one of the largest crowds I've ever seen for an ESPN College Gameday. And they played well, hustling for 20 offensive rebounds and winning the turnover battle. But Kansas is just an outstanding team, and Sherron Collins had his most clutch performance of the season, and the Jayhawks just looked a little bit more comfortable in the waning moments of a big nationally televised game like this. Kansas State is a really good team, but this whole thing is new to them. Kansas has been here before, and it shows. This also has to go down as one of the most impressive wins for any team in the nation this season. It shows once again why I feel that Kansas is the best team in the nation. For Kansas State, this is a home loss, but not all home losses are created equal. This game actually goes a long way towards proving to me that Kansas State is legitimately one of the best teams in the nation. They are only 4-3 in the Big 12, but with a relatively easy upcoming schedule they should be able to take care of business over the next couple of weeks.
#1 Kentucky 85, #23 Vanderbilt 72
This isn't a game that Vandy ever had much chance of winning. They were coming off their most impressive win of the season and were due for a letdown, and Kentucky was highly motivated after their first loss of the season. Throw in homecourt advantage for Kentucky and I'm impressed with Vanderbilt that they even kept things this close. I still believe Kentucky is a little bit overrated, but I do think they're on their way to a 1 seed just because they should run through the SEC with no more than one or two losses the rest of the way. It's rare for a BCS conference team to lose three games or less in a season while winning the regular season or tournament title to then not get a 1 seed. As for Vanderbilt, this loss drops them to 5-1 in the SEC with a winnable but dangerous upcoming schedule (vs Mississippi State, at Georgia, vs Tennessee). The Commodores were on a really nice five game hot streak before this loss, and the key for them is to again find that play, and to not allow one loss in a game they never had much of a chance in anyway from affecting their mindset from this point forward.
Cornell 86, Harvard 50
It's fairly remarkable that there has actually been talk in the national media of the Ivy League getting two teams into the NCAA Tournament. It's actually harder for the Ivy league to be a multi-bid league than any other conference, and not necessarily for the reason you might think. It's because a lot of conferences get a cheap second bid where they have one really good team that just gets knocked off in the conference tournament, so they get two teams in the NCAA Tournament but only one with at-large credentials. The Ivy League doesn't have a conference tournament, so they need two teams to have legitimate at-large credentials. And Cornell actually has that: they're 16-3 with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100, with no big wins but no bad losses either. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 14th, although their PREDICTOR and Pomeroy rating are closer to 40th. If the season ended now and they weren't given an automatic bid, they probably would actually earn that at-large bid. Harvard's resume, however, is not as impressive. They're 13-4 with a 2-3 record against the RPI Top 100. Again, no elite wins, but one bad loss (to Army). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 58th, and their RPI is 68th. They would not be an at-large team if the season ended now. If they don't earn the automatic Ivy League bid then that means that they will have lost at least one more game (if Harvard beats Cornell in the re-match later this season, and both teams finish 13-1, there would be a playoff game for the automatic bid, so one of them would have to lose another game), and that means that their odds of an at-large bid really are not good at all. If they go undefeated the rest of the way and earn the automatic bid then that means Cornell has to lose at least two more times, which would greatly damage their own at-large chances. So while it's still possible for the Ivy League to earn two NCAA Tournament bids, they really need a whole bunch of things to fall into place. I don't like their chances.
Kansas State's fans were motivated for this one, with one of the largest crowds I've ever seen for an ESPN College Gameday. And they played well, hustling for 20 offensive rebounds and winning the turnover battle. But Kansas is just an outstanding team, and Sherron Collins had his most clutch performance of the season, and the Jayhawks just looked a little bit more comfortable in the waning moments of a big nationally televised game like this. Kansas State is a really good team, but this whole thing is new to them. Kansas has been here before, and it shows. This also has to go down as one of the most impressive wins for any team in the nation this season. It shows once again why I feel that Kansas is the best team in the nation. For Kansas State, this is a home loss, but not all home losses are created equal. This game actually goes a long way towards proving to me that Kansas State is legitimately one of the best teams in the nation. They are only 4-3 in the Big 12, but with a relatively easy upcoming schedule they should be able to take care of business over the next couple of weeks.
#1 Kentucky 85, #23 Vanderbilt 72
This isn't a game that Vandy ever had much chance of winning. They were coming off their most impressive win of the season and were due for a letdown, and Kentucky was highly motivated after their first loss of the season. Throw in homecourt advantage for Kentucky and I'm impressed with Vanderbilt that they even kept things this close. I still believe Kentucky is a little bit overrated, but I do think they're on their way to a 1 seed just because they should run through the SEC with no more than one or two losses the rest of the way. It's rare for a BCS conference team to lose three games or less in a season while winning the regular season or tournament title to then not get a 1 seed. As for Vanderbilt, this loss drops them to 5-1 in the SEC with a winnable but dangerous upcoming schedule (vs Mississippi State, at Georgia, vs Tennessee). The Commodores were on a really nice five game hot streak before this loss, and the key for them is to again find that play, and to not allow one loss in a game they never had much of a chance in anyway from affecting their mindset from this point forward.
Cornell 86, Harvard 50
It's fairly remarkable that there has actually been talk in the national media of the Ivy League getting two teams into the NCAA Tournament. It's actually harder for the Ivy league to be a multi-bid league than any other conference, and not necessarily for the reason you might think. It's because a lot of conferences get a cheap second bid where they have one really good team that just gets knocked off in the conference tournament, so they get two teams in the NCAA Tournament but only one with at-large credentials. The Ivy League doesn't have a conference tournament, so they need two teams to have legitimate at-large credentials. And Cornell actually has that: they're 16-3 with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100, with no big wins but no bad losses either. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 14th, although their PREDICTOR and Pomeroy rating are closer to 40th. If the season ended now and they weren't given an automatic bid, they probably would actually earn that at-large bid. Harvard's resume, however, is not as impressive. They're 13-4 with a 2-3 record against the RPI Top 100. Again, no elite wins, but one bad loss (to Army). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 58th, and their RPI is 68th. They would not be an at-large team if the season ended now. If they don't earn the automatic Ivy League bid then that means that they will have lost at least one more game (if Harvard beats Cornell in the re-match later this season, and both teams finish 13-1, there would be a playoff game for the automatic bid, so one of them would have to lose another game), and that means that their odds of an at-large bid really are not good at all. If they go undefeated the rest of the way and earn the automatic bid then that means Cornell has to lose at least two more times, which would greatly damage their own at-large chances. So while it's still possible for the Ivy League to earn two NCAA Tournament bids, they really need a whole bunch of things to fall into place. I don't like their chances.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
W-6 BP65
Six weeks until Selection Sunday. Only about four weeks until conference tournaments begin. The next BP65 will be out a week from now, after next Saturday night's games. But after that I will begin posting new BP65s twice weekly, after Wednesday night's games and after Saturday night's games.
For the time being, here's how I see things ending up:
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Texas
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Michigan State
3. West Virginia
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Georgetown
3. Ohio State
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Tennessee
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
4. Kansas State
5. Georgia Tech
5. Missouri
5. North Carolina
5. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
6. Pittsburgh
6. Clemson
6. Wisconsin
6. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Washington
7. Wake Forest
7. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
7. Baylor
8. Vanderbilt
8. BYU
8. Xavier
8. UConn
9. Florida
9. Louisville
9. Mississippi
9. Cincinnati
10. Minnesota
10. Maryland
10. Oklahoma State
10. Mississippi State
11. Texas A&M
11. UNLV
11. Arizona State
11. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Illinois
12. Florida State
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. CORNELL (IVY)
13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Northwestern, UAB, Tulsa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Saint Mary's
Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Charlotte, Marquette, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, UTEP, Arizona, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech
Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Providence, St. John's, South Florida, Michigan, Iowa State, George Mason, Northeastern, William & Mary, Marshall, Harvard, Iona, Illinois State, Missouri State, Oregon, Washington State, Alabama, Georgia, Portland, Nevada
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, DePaul, Rutgers, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Pacific, Houston, Southern Miss, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Creighton, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, Utah, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
For the time being, here's how I see things ending up:
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Texas
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Michigan State
3. West Virginia
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Georgetown
3. Ohio State
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Tennessee
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
4. Kansas State
5. Georgia Tech
5. Missouri
5. North Carolina
5. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
6. Pittsburgh
6. Clemson
6. Wisconsin
6. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Washington
7. Wake Forest
7. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
7. Baylor
8. Vanderbilt
8. BYU
8. Xavier
8. UConn
9. Florida
9. Louisville
9. Mississippi
9. Cincinnati
10. Minnesota
10. Maryland
10. Oklahoma State
10. Mississippi State
11. Texas A&M
11. UNLV
11. Arizona State
11. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Illinois
12. Florida State
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. CORNELL (IVY)
13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Northwestern, UAB, Tulsa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Saint Mary's
Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Charlotte, Marquette, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, VCU, UTEP, Arizona, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech
Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Providence, St. John's, South Florida, Michigan, Iowa State, George Mason, Northeastern, William & Mary, Marshall, Harvard, Iona, Illinois State, Missouri State, Oregon, Washington State, Alabama, Georgia, Portland, Nevada
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, DePaul, Rutgers, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Pacific, Houston, Southern Miss, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Creighton, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, Utah, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Texas Loses Again
Baylor 80, #6 Texas 77, OT
Anthony Jones hit an impressive, clutch layup as time was expiring in regulation to send this one to overtime. A.J. Jones then hit three free throws in the final fifteen seconds of overtime to end this game. Both teams had a lot of foul trouble, but Baylor had it worse with leading scorer LaceDarius Dunn fouling out with more than four minutes left in regulation. At the time Texas had just fought back from a double-digit second half deficit to tie the game, and it just seemed like they were finally going to put the Bears away. But Texas has lost three of their last four games, and they've done it by just not hitting the big shot, not making the big stop, and losing that confidence that they had when they were 17-0. Texas now falls two full games behind Kansas and will potentially fall all the way out of the Top Ten in the polls on Monday, but the bigger issue is righting the ship with several more tough games coming before they get a breather: at Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, vs Kansas. As for Baylor, this win only moves them to 3-3 in the Big 12, but they're an impressive 7-3 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Oklahoma State, Xavier and now Texas. Their RPI is up to 27th, and their Sagarin rating will be up around 20th when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. They certainly look in good position to make only their third NCAA Tournament in more than half a century.
Missouri 95, Oklahoma State 80
When Missouri is playing like this they're almost impossible to beat. They always force a lot of turnovers (Oklahoma had 22 of them in this game), but they also shot 17-for-31 from behind the arc here. When they're scoring efficiently, with the high pace of their games, it's really difficult for their opponents to stay calm. This win moves them to 4-2 in the Big 12 with a relatively easy upcoming schedule, so they're in a good position to really move up the standings. For Oklahoma State this loss drops them to 4-3 with a big home game against reeling Texas coming up next. They are 16-5 overall, including 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS rating of 31st. At this point they're probably sixth in the Big 12 pecking order (behind Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri and Baylor), but the Big 12 will get at least six Tournament teams this season, and Oklahoma State would definitely be a Tournmament team if the season ended now. If they can finish 4-5 to get to 8-8 in the Big 12 they should earn an at-large bid.
Washington 92, Washington State 64
This game was actually pretty close for the first 25 minutes, but Washington end this game on an insane 56-23 run. Despite the high number of points scored the key was actually Washington's defense, which completely shut down Wazzu's offense. They were particularly impressive in shutting Klay Thompson down with seven points on 2-for-15 shooting, by far his worst game of the season (he was averaging over 22 points per game heading into this one). This was a key game for a Washington team that actually entered this game in a tie for last place in the Pac-10, although it was with a 3-5 record. With as jumbled as the Pac-10 is, a 12-6 record might be enough for a share of the regular season title. Over the next two weeks they will play the two teams that are most likely to challenge them for the Pac-10 title (Arizona State and Cal), so they still have a realistic shot to claw their way back into serious contention. As for Washington State, despite this loss they might still have the third best NCAA Tournament resume of any postseason-eligible Pac-10 team, but that isn't saying a whole lot this season. They are now 14-7 overall, including 7-7 against the RPI Top 200 with a Sagarin rating near 100th in the nation. They will have to win at least six of their final nine Pac-10 games to have any kind of a shot at an at-large bid.
Anthony Jones hit an impressive, clutch layup as time was expiring in regulation to send this one to overtime. A.J. Jones then hit three free throws in the final fifteen seconds of overtime to end this game. Both teams had a lot of foul trouble, but Baylor had it worse with leading scorer LaceDarius Dunn fouling out with more than four minutes left in regulation. At the time Texas had just fought back from a double-digit second half deficit to tie the game, and it just seemed like they were finally going to put the Bears away. But Texas has lost three of their last four games, and they've done it by just not hitting the big shot, not making the big stop, and losing that confidence that they had when they were 17-0. Texas now falls two full games behind Kansas and will potentially fall all the way out of the Top Ten in the polls on Monday, but the bigger issue is righting the ship with several more tough games coming before they get a breather: at Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, vs Kansas. As for Baylor, this win only moves them to 3-3 in the Big 12, but they're an impressive 7-3 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Oklahoma State, Xavier and now Texas. Their RPI is up to 27th, and their Sagarin rating will be up around 20th when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. They certainly look in good position to make only their third NCAA Tournament in more than half a century.
Missouri 95, Oklahoma State 80
When Missouri is playing like this they're almost impossible to beat. They always force a lot of turnovers (Oklahoma had 22 of them in this game), but they also shot 17-for-31 from behind the arc here. When they're scoring efficiently, with the high pace of their games, it's really difficult for their opponents to stay calm. This win moves them to 4-2 in the Big 12 with a relatively easy upcoming schedule, so they're in a good position to really move up the standings. For Oklahoma State this loss drops them to 4-3 with a big home game against reeling Texas coming up next. They are 16-5 overall, including 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS rating of 31st. At this point they're probably sixth in the Big 12 pecking order (behind Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri and Baylor), but the Big 12 will get at least six Tournament teams this season, and Oklahoma State would definitely be a Tournmament team if the season ended now. If they can finish 4-5 to get to 8-8 in the Big 12 they should earn an at-large bid.
Washington 92, Washington State 64
This game was actually pretty close for the first 25 minutes, but Washington end this game on an insane 56-23 run. Despite the high number of points scored the key was actually Washington's defense, which completely shut down Wazzu's offense. They were particularly impressive in shutting Klay Thompson down with seven points on 2-for-15 shooting, by far his worst game of the season (he was averaging over 22 points per game heading into this one). This was a key game for a Washington team that actually entered this game in a tie for last place in the Pac-10, although it was with a 3-5 record. With as jumbled as the Pac-10 is, a 12-6 record might be enough for a share of the regular season title. Over the next two weeks they will play the two teams that are most likely to challenge them for the Pac-10 title (Arizona State and Cal), so they still have a realistic shot to claw their way back into serious contention. As for Washington State, despite this loss they might still have the third best NCAA Tournament resume of any postseason-eligible Pac-10 team, but that isn't saying a whole lot this season. They are now 14-7 overall, including 7-7 against the RPI Top 200 with a Sagarin rating near 100th in the nation. They will have to win at least six of their final nine Pac-10 games to have any kind of a shot at an at-large bid.
Georgetown Obliterates Duke
#11 Georgetown 89, #7 Duke 77
The final score does not do justice to how big of a blowout this game was. Georgetown led by 23 points with about four minutes to go before Duke went on a little run. Duke actually played fairly well for the first 25-30 minutes of this game, playing their typical solid basketball and dominating the rebounding battle against the more athletic Hoyas (Duke had 12 offensive rebounds versus only one for Georgetown). But Georgetown was shooting out of their minds, and Duke couldn't even get the score particularly close. And with about ten minutes left in the game Duke just began to fall apart, and they played worse than I'd seen all season long. One thing you can almost always count on with Coach K's teams are the lack of stupid mistakes, but they started making them by the bunches. They made stupid passes, took stupid shots, and were back-doored to death on defense. Georgetown shot 72% from the field, although as hot as they were that number wouldn't have been nearly as high without so many layups. For almost two years I've been saying that Georgetown can be a really good team if they can just click as a team, and this is the first time in the past two seasons that they've really clicked like that for an extended stretch. At 6-3 in the Big East Georgetown is a long shot for the Big East regular season crown, but they have a legitimate shot at a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they don't win the Big East. If they're going to make any run at a conference title then it will have to start next Saturday when Villanova comes to town. As for Duke, the good news about this game is that it doesn't count in the ACC standings, and they remain in a virtual tie atop the ACC at 5-2. They next play Georgia Tech at home, but the game that is really looming is that game in Chapel Hill on February 10th.
Marquette 70, #19 UConn 68
Marquette came into this one 1-7 in games decided by five points or less, even though this is a team that you might expect to be good in close games, with a very guard heavy lineup and with fairly experienced stars. Jimmy Butler hit the game winner here with 2.6 seconds to go and UConn never got another shot off. For UConn, the warning bells really have to be going off as that Texas win is looking more and more like a fluke performance. In the other three games they've played since Jim Calhoun has been on leave they beat St. John's, lost this game and were rocked at Providence. This loss drops them to 3-5 in the Big East and they have a very difficult game upcoming at Louisville on Monday night. They also still have to head to Syracuse, Villanova and Notre Dame this season. I do believe they'll be a Tournament team if they get to 8-10 in Big East and have a respectable performance in the Big East tournament, but that's no sure thing anymore, especially with the upcoming schedule and the uncertainty around Calhoun. Do not be surprised to see UConn still on the Tournament bubble when March rolls around. In fact, I'd be surprised if they aren't. As for Marquette, it's clear that they still think they have a chance at the NCAA Tournament, particularly after taking the redshirt off of true freshman Junior Cadougan and letting him play his first game of the year last week. I still view them as something of a long shot considering how much they are struggling to win close games, and how they don't even seem to be a complete team (the biggest player in their regular rotation is Lazar Haywood, who is 6'6", 225 pounds -it's no surprise they lost the rebounding battle to a huge UConn team here 41-to-18). This win moves Marquette to 4-5 in the Big East with an RPI of 58th, but they're only 7-8 against the RPI Top 200. They now have a few nice wins (over Georgetown, Xavier and now here against UConn), so they can make the Tournament without great computer numbers, but they still have a lot of work to do. They're going to have to get to at least 9-9 in Big East play to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.
#9 West Virginia 77, Louisville 74
Louisville has to start thinking that the Big East referees are conspiring against them, as another bad call in the final ten seconds cost them a game - in this case it was an incorrect out-of-bounds call with six seconds to go. Louisville led this game by 12 points with less than seven minutes remaining, but they have continually managed to blow close games while West Virginia has continually pulled out close games, and in the end those trends continued. With the win West Virginia moves to 6-2 in the Big East, and with home games against Pitt and Villanova coming up in the next two weeks they are still positioned to make a run at the Big East title. And if they can win a share of that title and then win the Big East tournament title then they will have to be seriously considered for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday. For Louisville, as good as they've played they remain a bubble team because of these close losses. On the season they are 0-4 in games decided by five points or less, including 0-3 in the Big East, and they are now 4-4 overall in conference play. They are only 4-8 against the RPI Top 100 and do not have a win over the RPI Top 40. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 59th and their PREDICTOR is 29th, so they're clearly a much better team than their record, but it's getting a little bit late in the season for that to be much comfort. At this point any hopes of a top three or four finish in the Big East are over and Louisville has to focus on just locking up an NCAA bid. Their next game is a dangerous home game against a desperate UConn team, but other than a road game at Syracuse they have a fairly easy next three weeks. Despite this tough stretch (four losses in their last five games) I'd still be surprised if Louisville doesn't have that at-large bid sewn up by the first of March.
The final score does not do justice to how big of a blowout this game was. Georgetown led by 23 points with about four minutes to go before Duke went on a little run. Duke actually played fairly well for the first 25-30 minutes of this game, playing their typical solid basketball and dominating the rebounding battle against the more athletic Hoyas (Duke had 12 offensive rebounds versus only one for Georgetown). But Georgetown was shooting out of their minds, and Duke couldn't even get the score particularly close. And with about ten minutes left in the game Duke just began to fall apart, and they played worse than I'd seen all season long. One thing you can almost always count on with Coach K's teams are the lack of stupid mistakes, but they started making them by the bunches. They made stupid passes, took stupid shots, and were back-doored to death on defense. Georgetown shot 72% from the field, although as hot as they were that number wouldn't have been nearly as high without so many layups. For almost two years I've been saying that Georgetown can be a really good team if they can just click as a team, and this is the first time in the past two seasons that they've really clicked like that for an extended stretch. At 6-3 in the Big East Georgetown is a long shot for the Big East regular season crown, but they have a legitimate shot at a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they don't win the Big East. If they're going to make any run at a conference title then it will have to start next Saturday when Villanova comes to town. As for Duke, the good news about this game is that it doesn't count in the ACC standings, and they remain in a virtual tie atop the ACC at 5-2. They next play Georgia Tech at home, but the game that is really looming is that game in Chapel Hill on February 10th.
Marquette 70, #19 UConn 68
Marquette came into this one 1-7 in games decided by five points or less, even though this is a team that you might expect to be good in close games, with a very guard heavy lineup and with fairly experienced stars. Jimmy Butler hit the game winner here with 2.6 seconds to go and UConn never got another shot off. For UConn, the warning bells really have to be going off as that Texas win is looking more and more like a fluke performance. In the other three games they've played since Jim Calhoun has been on leave they beat St. John's, lost this game and were rocked at Providence. This loss drops them to 3-5 in the Big East and they have a very difficult game upcoming at Louisville on Monday night. They also still have to head to Syracuse, Villanova and Notre Dame this season. I do believe they'll be a Tournament team if they get to 8-10 in Big East and have a respectable performance in the Big East tournament, but that's no sure thing anymore, especially with the upcoming schedule and the uncertainty around Calhoun. Do not be surprised to see UConn still on the Tournament bubble when March rolls around. In fact, I'd be surprised if they aren't. As for Marquette, it's clear that they still think they have a chance at the NCAA Tournament, particularly after taking the redshirt off of true freshman Junior Cadougan and letting him play his first game of the year last week. I still view them as something of a long shot considering how much they are struggling to win close games, and how they don't even seem to be a complete team (the biggest player in their regular rotation is Lazar Haywood, who is 6'6", 225 pounds -it's no surprise they lost the rebounding battle to a huge UConn team here 41-to-18). This win moves Marquette to 4-5 in the Big East with an RPI of 58th, but they're only 7-8 against the RPI Top 200. They now have a few nice wins (over Georgetown, Xavier and now here against UConn), so they can make the Tournament without great computer numbers, but they still have a lot of work to do. They're going to have to get to at least 9-9 in Big East play to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.
#9 West Virginia 77, Louisville 74
Louisville has to start thinking that the Big East referees are conspiring against them, as another bad call in the final ten seconds cost them a game - in this case it was an incorrect out-of-bounds call with six seconds to go. Louisville led this game by 12 points with less than seven minutes remaining, but they have continually managed to blow close games while West Virginia has continually pulled out close games, and in the end those trends continued. With the win West Virginia moves to 6-2 in the Big East, and with home games against Pitt and Villanova coming up in the next two weeks they are still positioned to make a run at the Big East title. And if they can win a share of that title and then win the Big East tournament title then they will have to be seriously considered for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday. For Louisville, as good as they've played they remain a bubble team because of these close losses. On the season they are 0-4 in games decided by five points or less, including 0-3 in the Big East, and they are now 4-4 overall in conference play. They are only 4-8 against the RPI Top 100 and do not have a win over the RPI Top 40. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 59th and their PREDICTOR is 29th, so they're clearly a much better team than their record, but it's getting a little bit late in the season for that to be much comfort. At this point any hopes of a top three or four finish in the Big East are over and Louisville has to focus on just locking up an NCAA bid. Their next game is a dangerous home game against a desperate UConn team, but other than a road game at Syracuse they have a fairly easy next three weeks. Despite this tough stretch (four losses in their last five games) I'd still be surprised if Louisville doesn't have that at-large bid sewn up by the first of March.
Purdue Survives Wisconsin
#12 Purdue 60, #16 Wisconsin 57
Despite this being only the second loss for Wisconsin since the Jon Leuer injury, this is actually the best they've played since the Leuer injury, and the Badgers should be encouraged by their play here. This is the toughest game on their schedule because historically they have almost never won at Purdue, and Purdue's style of play matches up very well against Wisconsin's. Wisconsin did a better job of taking care of the ball and getting better shots, and Purdue only won this game because of their size inside which led to a bunch of tip-ins off of misses. They had 11 offensive rebounds while Wisconsin had 15 defensive rebounds. Since the Leuer injury Wisconsin has mostly gone with a seven man rotation, and none of those seven are really post players, so rebounding is a big issue for them. But this result, even though it's a loss, proves to me that this team won't fall off the face of the Earth as they wait for Leuer to return. For Purdue, they got a great game out of E'Twaun Moore (who had 20 points and was really the only Boilermaker who could consistently create his own shot) and Robbie Hummel (who was shut down by Tim Jarmusz, probably the most underrated defender in the Big Ten, but did a great job of getting second chance points and by creating offense for others, finishing with four offensive rebounds, five assists and 12 points). Purdue now moves to 5-3, which puts them in a tie for third place in the conference. Wisconsin is still in second place, but at 6-3 they also have three losses. Michigan State is far ahead of everybody at 8-0 but they have had a relatively easy schedule and pulled off a bunch of very close wins, and are not as good as many people think they are. If Purdue can sweep their two games with Michigan State then they actually still have a realistic shot of winning the Big Ten regular season title. I certainly give them a better shot than anybody else of taking the title from the Spartans.
Virginia Tech 76, Virginia 71, OT
This result should put together the silly hype about Virginia, which was inexplicably getting a lot of Top 25 media votes and getting put into the field of 65 on other bracketology sites. Tony Bennett is, in my opinion, one of the best young coaches in the country, and he will build up this program. But this is Bennett's first season, and he was just not dealt a very good hand. Other than Sylven Landesberg there isn't anybody who is considered one of the better players in the ACC, and as a thin team they tend to wear out at the end of games (as they did here, where they actually led most of the game before faltering down the stretch and in overtime). They are trying to learn a new system, and it will just take a few years for Bennett to get the players he wants to build a winner. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, does have a realistic shot at the NCAA Tournament this season. This win pushes Virginia Tech to 3-2 in the ACC and 16-3 overall, with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100, but with no big wins or bad losses. Their strength of schedule is very poor, and so since the RPI overvalues strength of schedule it only has the Hokies at 61st, but that number will improve as their strength of schedule improves (Sagarin rates their strength of schedule 193rd, one of only three ACC teams outside the Top 90). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 25th and their PREDICTOR is 45th, and Pomeroy has them 36th. What that all tells me is that if the season ended right now Virginia Tech would almost definitely make the Tournament, but they've got a lot of work left to do. If they can end up 8-8 in the ACC while knocking off at least one elite team then they will more than likely earn an at-large bid.
California 78, Arizona State 70
California's backcourt, probably the best in the Pac-10, had perhaps their best game of the season and led the Bears to a huge victory in terms of at-large positioning. Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher combined for 46 points on 16-for-29 shooting from the field, and they absolutely shut down Derek Glasser, who sometimes struggles against very athletic guards like them. If it wasn't for Eric Boateng's best game of the season (his first double-double since a mid-November game against TCU) and homecourt advantage this game probably wouldn't have even been close. This was the first game in a stretch of four key road games for Cal (at Arizona State, Arizona, USC and UCLA) that could determine whether they win the conference, or whether they even make the NCAA Tournament. This win keeps them in first place in the Pac-10 at 6-2, but the conference is so jumbled that everybody is close behind (the last placed team in the Pac-10 right now is 3-5). With this win Cal now has the best computer numbers in the conference across the board: their RPI is 18th, Sagarin has them 29th and Pomeroy has them 17th. If they can go 5-5 the rest of the way and then have a respectable performance in the Pac-10 tournament then I think they're in very good shape for an at-large bid. For Arizona State, this was a huge missed opportunity to separate themselves from the rest of the Pac-10 pack. They are now 4-4 in the Pac-10 and 14-7 overall, but only 7-7 against the RPI Top 200. With an RPI of 90th and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 86th there is no chance they'd make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. They've got to finish 10-8 or better to have any chance of an at-large bid. But their Sagarin PREDICTOR rating is 28th and Pomeroy has them 30th, even after this loss, so they're good enough to still make a run.
Despite this being only the second loss for Wisconsin since the Jon Leuer injury, this is actually the best they've played since the Leuer injury, and the Badgers should be encouraged by their play here. This is the toughest game on their schedule because historically they have almost never won at Purdue, and Purdue's style of play matches up very well against Wisconsin's. Wisconsin did a better job of taking care of the ball and getting better shots, and Purdue only won this game because of their size inside which led to a bunch of tip-ins off of misses. They had 11 offensive rebounds while Wisconsin had 15 defensive rebounds. Since the Leuer injury Wisconsin has mostly gone with a seven man rotation, and none of those seven are really post players, so rebounding is a big issue for them. But this result, even though it's a loss, proves to me that this team won't fall off the face of the Earth as they wait for Leuer to return. For Purdue, they got a great game out of E'Twaun Moore (who had 20 points and was really the only Boilermaker who could consistently create his own shot) and Robbie Hummel (who was shut down by Tim Jarmusz, probably the most underrated defender in the Big Ten, but did a great job of getting second chance points and by creating offense for others, finishing with four offensive rebounds, five assists and 12 points). Purdue now moves to 5-3, which puts them in a tie for third place in the conference. Wisconsin is still in second place, but at 6-3 they also have three losses. Michigan State is far ahead of everybody at 8-0 but they have had a relatively easy schedule and pulled off a bunch of very close wins, and are not as good as many people think they are. If Purdue can sweep their two games with Michigan State then they actually still have a realistic shot of winning the Big Ten regular season title. I certainly give them a better shot than anybody else of taking the title from the Spartans.
Virginia Tech 76, Virginia 71, OT
This result should put together the silly hype about Virginia, which was inexplicably getting a lot of Top 25 media votes and getting put into the field of 65 on other bracketology sites. Tony Bennett is, in my opinion, one of the best young coaches in the country, and he will build up this program. But this is Bennett's first season, and he was just not dealt a very good hand. Other than Sylven Landesberg there isn't anybody who is considered one of the better players in the ACC, and as a thin team they tend to wear out at the end of games (as they did here, where they actually led most of the game before faltering down the stretch and in overtime). They are trying to learn a new system, and it will just take a few years for Bennett to get the players he wants to build a winner. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, does have a realistic shot at the NCAA Tournament this season. This win pushes Virginia Tech to 3-2 in the ACC and 16-3 overall, with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100, but with no big wins or bad losses. Their strength of schedule is very poor, and so since the RPI overvalues strength of schedule it only has the Hokies at 61st, but that number will improve as their strength of schedule improves (Sagarin rates their strength of schedule 193rd, one of only three ACC teams outside the Top 90). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 25th and their PREDICTOR is 45th, and Pomeroy has them 36th. What that all tells me is that if the season ended right now Virginia Tech would almost definitely make the Tournament, but they've got a lot of work left to do. If they can end up 8-8 in the ACC while knocking off at least one elite team then they will more than likely earn an at-large bid.
California 78, Arizona State 70
California's backcourt, probably the best in the Pac-10, had perhaps their best game of the season and led the Bears to a huge victory in terms of at-large positioning. Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher combined for 46 points on 16-for-29 shooting from the field, and they absolutely shut down Derek Glasser, who sometimes struggles against very athletic guards like them. If it wasn't for Eric Boateng's best game of the season (his first double-double since a mid-November game against TCU) and homecourt advantage this game probably wouldn't have even been close. This was the first game in a stretch of four key road games for Cal (at Arizona State, Arizona, USC and UCLA) that could determine whether they win the conference, or whether they even make the NCAA Tournament. This win keeps them in first place in the Pac-10 at 6-2, but the conference is so jumbled that everybody is close behind (the last placed team in the Pac-10 right now is 3-5). With this win Cal now has the best computer numbers in the conference across the board: their RPI is 18th, Sagarin has them 29th and Pomeroy has them 17th. If they can go 5-5 the rest of the way and then have a respectable performance in the Pac-10 tournament then I think they're in very good shape for an at-large bid. For Arizona State, this was a huge missed opportunity to separate themselves from the rest of the Pac-10 pack. They are now 4-4 in the Pac-10 and 14-7 overall, but only 7-7 against the RPI Top 200. With an RPI of 90th and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 86th there is no chance they'd make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. They've got to finish 10-8 or better to have any chance of an at-large bid. But their Sagarin PREDICTOR rating is 28th and Pomeroy has them 30th, even after this loss, so they're good enough to still make a run.
Friday, January 29, 2010
New Mexico Holds Serve
New Mexico 76, #12 BYU 72
This was one of the most important games of the week, and certainly the most underrated, but it actually didn't tell us a whole lot about these two teams. New Mexico and BYU have separated themselves a little bit from the rest of the pack in the Mountain West and both look to be pretty firmly in the NCAA Tournament, and so the question is which team will win the conference. These two teams have two of the best home court advantages in the nation, and so a narrow New Mexico win here suggests a likely narrow win for BYU at the Marriott Center when these teams play again on February 27th. BYU is possibly the best shooting team in the country, rated first nationwide in free throw shooting, eighth in two-point shooting, and 12th in three-point shooting. They also are solid and don't make mistakes, generally winning the turnover battle and not giving up offensive boards. New Mexico didn't win this game by taking advantage of any particular BYU weakness, but simply by fighting to a draw and hoping to hit more clutch shots down the stretch. The two teams tied with 37 rebounds and 11 turnovers, and both hit exactly 24 of exactly 63 shots from the field. Three-point shooting was basically a draw as well (42% for BYU, 41% for New Mexico), so the difference was free throw shooting, and the fact that New Mexico got to the line more and hit more of their shots once they were there. But like I said, this doesn't tell us a lot about what will happen in the Mountain West tournament. I expect BYU to beat New Mexico in the match-up next month, although we'll learn at that game if either team finds some weakness in the other.
#7 Duke 70, Florida State 56
Florida State scored the first basket of this game, and Duke quickly came back and took a lead that they never let go of the entire game. This was a game that they were expected to win, and they took care of business. Duke struggled a bit with Florida State's athleticism defensively, and they were also beaten fairly soundly on the boards, but this game wasn't close because Florida State's offense was dreadful. They turned the ball over 22 times and hit 23 shots from the field for the game. The Seminoles are now 3-3 in the ACC with a tricky road game at Boston College tomorrow afternoon. If they can get to 8-8 in ACC play then they will likely collect an at-large bid. As for Duke, they move again into a virtual tie atop the ACC with a 5-2 record. If they can win at least a share of the regular season title (very likely) and then win the ACC tournament title (much more of an uncertainty) then Duke will be in the 1 seed discussion on Selection Sunday.
#22 Georgia Tech 79, Wake Forest 58
Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech had maybe their best performance of the season in this annihilation of Wake Forest. Georgia Tech's strength is its frontline while Wake Forest's is its backcourt, so it was essential that the Yellow Jackets dominate the boards and the paint, which they did. Wake Forest had no answer for Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, who combined to shoot 10-for-16 shooting from the field, 18 rebounds and six blocks. True freshman Brian Oliver also deserves a lot of credit for his second consecutive nice game off the bench (13 points with 3-for-4 shooting behind the arc, coming off a 20 point performance on six three-pointers at Florida State). This is an important win for Georgia Tech to get to 4-3 in the ACC with a road game at Duke their next conference battle, followed by several more very difficult games. As for Wake Forest, it's hard to be too negative about this loss coming off two straight quality victories. They are now 4-3 in the ACC with a relatively easy game next at home against Miami. They will get their chance for revenge at home against Georgia Tech in about three weeks.
This was one of the most important games of the week, and certainly the most underrated, but it actually didn't tell us a whole lot about these two teams. New Mexico and BYU have separated themselves a little bit from the rest of the pack in the Mountain West and both look to be pretty firmly in the NCAA Tournament, and so the question is which team will win the conference. These two teams have two of the best home court advantages in the nation, and so a narrow New Mexico win here suggests a likely narrow win for BYU at the Marriott Center when these teams play again on February 27th. BYU is possibly the best shooting team in the country, rated first nationwide in free throw shooting, eighth in two-point shooting, and 12th in three-point shooting. They also are solid and don't make mistakes, generally winning the turnover battle and not giving up offensive boards. New Mexico didn't win this game by taking advantage of any particular BYU weakness, but simply by fighting to a draw and hoping to hit more clutch shots down the stretch. The two teams tied with 37 rebounds and 11 turnovers, and both hit exactly 24 of exactly 63 shots from the field. Three-point shooting was basically a draw as well (42% for BYU, 41% for New Mexico), so the difference was free throw shooting, and the fact that New Mexico got to the line more and hit more of their shots once they were there. But like I said, this doesn't tell us a lot about what will happen in the Mountain West tournament. I expect BYU to beat New Mexico in the match-up next month, although we'll learn at that game if either team finds some weakness in the other.
#7 Duke 70, Florida State 56
Florida State scored the first basket of this game, and Duke quickly came back and took a lead that they never let go of the entire game. This was a game that they were expected to win, and they took care of business. Duke struggled a bit with Florida State's athleticism defensively, and they were also beaten fairly soundly on the boards, but this game wasn't close because Florida State's offense was dreadful. They turned the ball over 22 times and hit 23 shots from the field for the game. The Seminoles are now 3-3 in the ACC with a tricky road game at Boston College tomorrow afternoon. If they can get to 8-8 in ACC play then they will likely collect an at-large bid. As for Duke, they move again into a virtual tie atop the ACC with a 5-2 record. If they can win at least a share of the regular season title (very likely) and then win the ACC tournament title (much more of an uncertainty) then Duke will be in the 1 seed discussion on Selection Sunday.
#22 Georgia Tech 79, Wake Forest 58
Staying in the ACC, Georgia Tech had maybe their best performance of the season in this annihilation of Wake Forest. Georgia Tech's strength is its frontline while Wake Forest's is its backcourt, so it was essential that the Yellow Jackets dominate the boards and the paint, which they did. Wake Forest had no answer for Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, who combined to shoot 10-for-16 shooting from the field, 18 rebounds and six blocks. True freshman Brian Oliver also deserves a lot of credit for his second consecutive nice game off the bench (13 points with 3-for-4 shooting behind the arc, coming off a 20 point performance on six three-pointers at Florida State). This is an important win for Georgia Tech to get to 4-3 in the ACC with a road game at Duke their next conference battle, followed by several more very difficult games. As for Wake Forest, it's hard to be too negative about this loss coming off two straight quality victories. They are now 4-3 in the ACC with a relatively easy game next at home against Miami. They will get their chance for revenge at home against Georgia Tech in about three weeks.
The SEC Is Being Led By... Vanderbilt?
#23 Vanderbilt 83, #14 Tennessee 76
Kentucky is the team currently ranked #1 in the nation. Tennessee is the team that knocked off #1 ranked Kansas a couple of weeks ago. Yet first place in the SEC is currently held by Vanderbilt, after this very impressive road victory. This is a particularly surprising result when you keep in mind how much better Vanderbilt is at home than on the road. Over the previous two seasons they have been a combined 14-2 at home and 4-12 on the road. A.J. Ogilvy is the best known player on Vandy, and he has had a good year, but Jermaine Beal was the star here with 25 points on only 12 shots from the field and, most impressively, zero turnovers in 38 minutes despite fielding a large piece of the ball handling duties. Next for Vandy it's a road game at Kentucky, which they'll probably lose (Kentucky coming off their first loss of the season, Vandy coming off their biggest win of the season, you have to expect Kentucky to win easily). The question is what happens next, and whether Vanderbilt will make a serious run at being the second best team in this conference. The SEC is much better than it was last season, and being in second place in the SEC pecking order will mean a pretty good Tournament seed. For Tennessee, we're starting to learn more about how good or bad this team really is. That magical run they had after those suspensions was just that: a temporary hot streak which inevitably was going to run into reality. Teams don't get better by kicking their best player out of the program. That said, while this result will have a huge impact on the SEC East standings, I do still think that Tennessee is the better team, and that they remain the second best team in the conference. Their next game is a home game against Florida on Sunday afternoon.
Oklahoma State 76, Texas A&M 69
Oklahoma State's hot shooting (58% from the field, 67% behind the arc) was enough to overcome another game without Ray Penn, and they have quietly moved into a tie with Kansas State for third place in the Big 12. This was actually a mildly unimpressive display by them, as Texas A&M was more efficient rebounding and turned the ball over six less times. If Oklahoma State's outside shooters weren't unconscious they would have lost (and it's not like they're used to this, as even after this game they're only shooting 34.1% behind the arc as a team, which is good for 167th in the nation). But things are going to get very tough very soon for this team, which has an insanely tough final stretch to their regular season. In fact, the only game I'd label as "not too difficult" the remainder of the way is their season finale, at home against Nebraska. Their schedule and resume are good enough that a 4-6 finish to the season will more likely than not be enough for an at-large bid, but that won't be easy. As for Texas A&M, they enter the key stretch of the season. The Derrick Roland injury is far enough in the rear view mirror that things are getting back to normal, and he has supposedly done a great job at providing advice and leadership from the bench and on the practice court, but there's only so much that he can do without playing. And at 3-3 in the Big 12 they now enter a series of games that all be tough, but none will be unwinnable. In three weeks they could be 6-5 and within reach of locking up an at-large bid in February, or they could be 4-7 and desperately trying to get back on the bubble.
Memphis 75, Marshall 72
There are five bubble teams in Conference USA, and it feels like they're each at this point in the season. The key to the conference gaining multiple bids will be two or three teams pulling away from the pack, and a situation where the teams all beat up on each other and fail to differentiate themselves could still lead it to become a one-bid conference yet again. Memphis is probably the best team in the conference, certainly in terms of pure natural talent. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy agree that they've played the best of any of the C-USA teams, although not by much. But as good of a team as they've been, they're inexperienced, they're thin, and they have a very young coach who was hired for his recruiting abilities - not his in-game coaching acumen. They have just been unable to win a close game against a good team, until now. In fact, this is by far their best win of the season. They had two other RPI Top 100 victories, and they came at home against IUPUI and Oakland (yes, both teams are in the Top 100. And no, neither is a particularly impressive win for an at-large resume). Memphis has two more chances for nice wins next week when UAB and Gonzaga come to town, and the following week they get a chance to prove that they can win tough games on the road when they head to Tulsa. As for Marshall, they seem to have been particularly deflated by that close loss to West Virginia, a team that they really should have beaten. They've followed it up with consecutive home losses, to UAB and Memphis. And things don't get any easier, with road games at Houston and Tulsa coming up this week. They are 4-2 in the conference and 15-5 overall, but they're 0-5 against the RPI Top 100 and the computer numbers are really starting to sag. They need to snap out of this slump quickly or any at-large chances they had will be gone.
Kentucky is the team currently ranked #1 in the nation. Tennessee is the team that knocked off #1 ranked Kansas a couple of weeks ago. Yet first place in the SEC is currently held by Vanderbilt, after this very impressive road victory. This is a particularly surprising result when you keep in mind how much better Vanderbilt is at home than on the road. Over the previous two seasons they have been a combined 14-2 at home and 4-12 on the road. A.J. Ogilvy is the best known player on Vandy, and he has had a good year, but Jermaine Beal was the star here with 25 points on only 12 shots from the field and, most impressively, zero turnovers in 38 minutes despite fielding a large piece of the ball handling duties. Next for Vandy it's a road game at Kentucky, which they'll probably lose (Kentucky coming off their first loss of the season, Vandy coming off their biggest win of the season, you have to expect Kentucky to win easily). The question is what happens next, and whether Vanderbilt will make a serious run at being the second best team in this conference. The SEC is much better than it was last season, and being in second place in the SEC pecking order will mean a pretty good Tournament seed. For Tennessee, we're starting to learn more about how good or bad this team really is. That magical run they had after those suspensions was just that: a temporary hot streak which inevitably was going to run into reality. Teams don't get better by kicking their best player out of the program. That said, while this result will have a huge impact on the SEC East standings, I do still think that Tennessee is the better team, and that they remain the second best team in the conference. Their next game is a home game against Florida on Sunday afternoon.
Oklahoma State 76, Texas A&M 69
Oklahoma State's hot shooting (58% from the field, 67% behind the arc) was enough to overcome another game without Ray Penn, and they have quietly moved into a tie with Kansas State for third place in the Big 12. This was actually a mildly unimpressive display by them, as Texas A&M was more efficient rebounding and turned the ball over six less times. If Oklahoma State's outside shooters weren't unconscious they would have lost (and it's not like they're used to this, as even after this game they're only shooting 34.1% behind the arc as a team, which is good for 167th in the nation). But things are going to get very tough very soon for this team, which has an insanely tough final stretch to their regular season. In fact, the only game I'd label as "not too difficult" the remainder of the way is their season finale, at home against Nebraska. Their schedule and resume are good enough that a 4-6 finish to the season will more likely than not be enough for an at-large bid, but that won't be easy. As for Texas A&M, they enter the key stretch of the season. The Derrick Roland injury is far enough in the rear view mirror that things are getting back to normal, and he has supposedly done a great job at providing advice and leadership from the bench and on the practice court, but there's only so much that he can do without playing. And at 3-3 in the Big 12 they now enter a series of games that all be tough, but none will be unwinnable. In three weeks they could be 6-5 and within reach of locking up an at-large bid in February, or they could be 4-7 and desperately trying to get back on the bubble.
Memphis 75, Marshall 72
There are five bubble teams in Conference USA, and it feels like they're each at this point in the season. The key to the conference gaining multiple bids will be two or three teams pulling away from the pack, and a situation where the teams all beat up on each other and fail to differentiate themselves could still lead it to become a one-bid conference yet again. Memphis is probably the best team in the conference, certainly in terms of pure natural talent. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy agree that they've played the best of any of the C-USA teams, although not by much. But as good of a team as they've been, they're inexperienced, they're thin, and they have a very young coach who was hired for his recruiting abilities - not his in-game coaching acumen. They have just been unable to win a close game against a good team, until now. In fact, this is by far their best win of the season. They had two other RPI Top 100 victories, and they came at home against IUPUI and Oakland (yes, both teams are in the Top 100. And no, neither is a particularly impressive win for an at-large resume). Memphis has two more chances for nice wins next week when UAB and Gonzaga come to town, and the following week they get a chance to prove that they can win tough games on the road when they head to Tulsa. As for Marshall, they seem to have been particularly deflated by that close loss to West Virginia, a team that they really should have beaten. They've followed it up with consecutive home losses, to UAB and Memphis. And things don't get any easier, with road games at Houston and Tulsa coming up this week. They are 4-2 in the conference and 15-5 overall, but they're 0-5 against the RPI Top 100 and the computer numbers are really starting to sag. They need to snap out of this slump quickly or any at-large chances they had will be gone.
And Then There Were None
South Carolina 68, #1 Kentucky 62
This game had the feel of one of those games where the big upset is almost inevitable. The South Carolina players were diving all over the floor, the crowd was in a frenzy, and the Kentucky players look scared and tentative. The game wouldn't even have been close without some great play by John Wall down the stretch. I used to think that the best freshman I had seen play was Dwyane Wade (Carmelo Anthony got more attention that season because his team won the title, but he also had better teammates and a better coach - I was more impressed by Wade that year), but I think I'd rather have 2009-10 John Wall than 2002-03 Dwyane Wade. That all said, the star of this game was Devan Downey, who'd be a household name by now if he played for another team. He is practically unguardable one-on-one, and torched Kentucky for 30 points. That said, people are making a bigger deal of this game than it should have been. Kentucky is not the best team in the country, or even one of the best. Pomeroy rates them the 11th best team in the country and Sagarin's PREDICTOR has them 12th. They were the last undefeated team because their schedule was so easy, not because they were the best team. The computers agree with me that Kansas is the best team. Sagarin rates Kentucky's current strength of schedule 120th in the country, and they have yet to play a game against a team in the current RPI Top 25. A loss like this is actually a good thing for Kentucky. The stress of being the last undefeated team really wears a team out, and it's always easier to make a run at a Final Four without that albatross. On top of that, there's a big risk with a very young team that they will get too impressed with themselves. This loss is a reality check, and they'll be better down the road for it. They still remain a favorite for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, if South Carolina makes the NCAA Tournament they will likely have this win to thank. This win moves them to 3-3 in the SEC and 3-7 against the RPI Top 100. They're going to have to go at least 9-7 in the SEC to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid, which means a 6-4 finish. Considering three very difficult road games ahead against Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky (you might want to bet your life savings on the Kentucky money line in Vegas for that last game), it's still quite an uphill climb for South Carolina. But this win gives them a realistic shot.
Minnesota 65, Northwestern 61
Northwestern nearly collected another nice victory here. Despite the hostile crowd they enforced their deliberate pace on this game. Northwestern's bench played a combined 19 minutes, which helped completely neutralize the very deep Minnesota bench (they have 11 players averaging over nine minutes per game this season). The Wildcats would have won this game if it wasn't for some hot outside shooting from Minnesota, particularly by Blake Hoffarber (5-for-8 behind the arc). Minnesota had come into this game 0-3 in games decided by three points or less, and even after this win their Pomeroy Luck rating is still 339th in the nation, so they are still better than their record. Their record is that of a bubble team, with a 4-4 Big Ten record, a 3-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and one bad loss (to Indiana). If the season ended now they probably would not be in the Tournament, but I think they'll finish 6-4 to get to 10-8, and that will more than likely be enough for a Tournament bid. Northwestern falls to 3-5 in the Big Ten and 4-6 against the RPI Top 100, although they don't have that bad loss. They also have a big win over Purdue that probably gives them a slightly better resume than Minnesota at the moment, but they now head to a very tough game at Michigan State and will likely fall to 3-6 in the Big Ten. They finish their conference schedule with Iowa, Penn State and Indiana, so they can come back from a sub-.500 record, but they can't fall too far off the pace.
Providence 81, #19 UConn 66
This loss for UConn was not a big surprise when you consider that it was coming off that huge win over Texas. You can avoid that letdown game only with great coaching, but UConn is in a particularly delicate situation with Jim Calhoun sidelined for health reasons. This loss also underscores the fact that despite that big win over Texas, Connecticut has by no means locked up a Tournament bid. This loss drops them to 3-4 in the Big East with road games at Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova and Notre Dame still remaining. I think that an 8-10 Big East record will be sufficient for an at-large bid, but that's not an automatic with the way they've been playing. For Providence, this nice win moves to 4-4 in the Big East, where they remind me a bit of last year's team that was wrongly put into the bubble discussion just because they had a nice Big East record (10-8), even though their overall resume was not that good. This year's team, even after this win, has a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 85th, so they're not even close to getting an at-large bid if the season ends now. The 3-8 record against the RPI Top 100 is the reason the computer numbers are bad. They get a chance to make noise over the next few days with road games at Cincinnati and Syracuse, but I wouldn't bet on it.
This game had the feel of one of those games where the big upset is almost inevitable. The South Carolina players were diving all over the floor, the crowd was in a frenzy, and the Kentucky players look scared and tentative. The game wouldn't even have been close without some great play by John Wall down the stretch. I used to think that the best freshman I had seen play was Dwyane Wade (Carmelo Anthony got more attention that season because his team won the title, but he also had better teammates and a better coach - I was more impressed by Wade that year), but I think I'd rather have 2009-10 John Wall than 2002-03 Dwyane Wade. That all said, the star of this game was Devan Downey, who'd be a household name by now if he played for another team. He is practically unguardable one-on-one, and torched Kentucky for 30 points. That said, people are making a bigger deal of this game than it should have been. Kentucky is not the best team in the country, or even one of the best. Pomeroy rates them the 11th best team in the country and Sagarin's PREDICTOR has them 12th. They were the last undefeated team because their schedule was so easy, not because they were the best team. The computers agree with me that Kansas is the best team. Sagarin rates Kentucky's current strength of schedule 120th in the country, and they have yet to play a game against a team in the current RPI Top 25. A loss like this is actually a good thing for Kentucky. The stress of being the last undefeated team really wears a team out, and it's always easier to make a run at a Final Four without that albatross. On top of that, there's a big risk with a very young team that they will get too impressed with themselves. This loss is a reality check, and they'll be better down the road for it. They still remain a favorite for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, if South Carolina makes the NCAA Tournament they will likely have this win to thank. This win moves them to 3-3 in the SEC and 3-7 against the RPI Top 100. They're going to have to go at least 9-7 in the SEC to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid, which means a 6-4 finish. Considering three very difficult road games ahead against Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky (you might want to bet your life savings on the Kentucky money line in Vegas for that last game), it's still quite an uphill climb for South Carolina. But this win gives them a realistic shot.
Minnesota 65, Northwestern 61
Northwestern nearly collected another nice victory here. Despite the hostile crowd they enforced their deliberate pace on this game. Northwestern's bench played a combined 19 minutes, which helped completely neutralize the very deep Minnesota bench (they have 11 players averaging over nine minutes per game this season). The Wildcats would have won this game if it wasn't for some hot outside shooting from Minnesota, particularly by Blake Hoffarber (5-for-8 behind the arc). Minnesota had come into this game 0-3 in games decided by three points or less, and even after this win their Pomeroy Luck rating is still 339th in the nation, so they are still better than their record. Their record is that of a bubble team, with a 4-4 Big Ten record, a 3-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and one bad loss (to Indiana). If the season ended now they probably would not be in the Tournament, but I think they'll finish 6-4 to get to 10-8, and that will more than likely be enough for a Tournament bid. Northwestern falls to 3-5 in the Big Ten and 4-6 against the RPI Top 100, although they don't have that bad loss. They also have a big win over Purdue that probably gives them a slightly better resume than Minnesota at the moment, but they now head to a very tough game at Michigan State and will likely fall to 3-6 in the Big Ten. They finish their conference schedule with Iowa, Penn State and Indiana, so they can come back from a sub-.500 record, but they can't fall too far off the pace.
Providence 81, #19 UConn 66
This loss for UConn was not a big surprise when you consider that it was coming off that huge win over Texas. You can avoid that letdown game only with great coaching, but UConn is in a particularly delicate situation with Jim Calhoun sidelined for health reasons. This loss also underscores the fact that despite that big win over Texas, Connecticut has by no means locked up a Tournament bid. This loss drops them to 3-4 in the Big East with road games at Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova and Notre Dame still remaining. I think that an 8-10 Big East record will be sufficient for an at-large bid, but that's not an automatic with the way they've been playing. For Providence, this nice win moves to 4-4 in the Big East, where they remind me a bit of last year's team that was wrongly put into the bubble discussion just because they had a nice Big East record (10-8), even though their overall resume was not that good. This year's team, even after this win, has a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 85th, so they're not even close to getting an at-large bid if the season ends now. The 3-8 record against the RPI Top 100 is the reason the computer numbers are bad. They get a chance to make noise over the next few days with road games at Cincinnati and Syracuse, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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