I hope everybody is having a great holiday break with their family and friends. It's been a slow few games of actual competitive college basketball games, so there aren't a whole lot of changes from last week:
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. Texas
2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia
3. Tennessee
3. Michigan State
3. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. California
4. Clemson
4. Georgetown
5. UConn
5. Ohio State
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Florida
6. Minnesota
6. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
6. Mississippi State
6. Arizona State
7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Wisconsin
7. Louisville
7. Kansas State
8. BYU
8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. Texas A&M
8. Missouri
9. Vanderbilt
9. Maryland
9. Wake Forest
9. Mississippi
10. Xavier
10. UNLV
10. Cincinnati
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
11. Baylor
11. Georgia Tech
11. Illinois
11. Miami (Fl)
12. Oklahoma State
12. Temple
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
14. COAST CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, NC State, Richmond, Rhode Island, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Michigan, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Tulsa, Missouri State, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona, Washington State, South Carolina
Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Notre Dame, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, William & Mary, UAB, Southern Miss, UTEP, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Bradley, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, USCAlabama, LSU, Portland, Saint Mary's, Louisiana Tech, Nevada
Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Duquesne, George Washington, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Colorado, Pacific, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Central Florida, Marshall, Loyola-Chicago, Harvard, Iona, Niagara, Ohio, Creighton, Indiana State, Colorado State, TCU, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Auburn, Georgia, San Diego, Idaho
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Texas Outlasts Michigan State
#2 Texas 79, #9 Michigan State 68
Despite the final score, Michigan State actually led most of this game, and Texas didn't open this game up until the final three minutes. But I feel like Tom Izzo had a bad plan of attack here, trying to run with a Texas team that is more built to run, and that has more bodies they can throw on the floor. Dogus Balbay did a great job shutting down Kalin Lucas (11 points on 11 shots from the field, along with 2 assists and 6 turnovers), which put way too much pressure on Korie Lucious. Lucious played pretty well for most of the game, but looked lost late in the game. With Lucas shut down, Michigan State really should have slowed things down and pounded the ball inside. By putting too much in the hands of inferior guards, they ended up with 22 turnovers. Both teams ended up rushing way too many shots early in the shot clock, explaining the lack of offensive rebounds by two teams that are generally pretty good at those (10 combined for both teams). It's hard to argue with what Texas has done over the last week, beating both North Carolina and Michigan State soundly, but if there's one word of caution it's that Texas hasn't yet proven that they can win away from home. I know that the UNC game was technically a "neutral court" game, but it was in Cowboys Stadium. They have had only one true road game, and it was in state against a bad Rice team. Their two true neutral court games were against Iowa and Pittsburgh, who both gave Texas a lot of trouble (they were losing to Pitt at halftime, and were tied at halftime with Iowa). I'm curious to see how they respond to a true road game against Arkansas on January 5th. Arkansas is a bad team (Sagarin rates them 185th), but I want to see Texas play like this in a truly hostile crowd. As for Michigan State, they appear to have found their ceiling, as they've lost to the three truly elite teams they've played. They do have that four point win over Gonzaga, but their next best win is probably over UMass. They get a fairly easy start to Big Ten play, so if Michigan State is going to have any chance of competing for a Big Ten title they've got to get off to a quick start.
UAB 67, #16 Butler 57
Don't look now, but UAB might actually be a good team. A lot of people thought UAB would be down this year now that the last of Mike Davis's Indiana transfers is gone, but we forget that as much as Davis had yet to really prove himself as a good game manager, he is unquestionably a good recruiter. He has done a good job at bringing in some transfers and quality recruits, and he's got a team that is a legitimate bubble team. They are now 11-1 with wins over Cincinnati and Butler, although the one loss is a bit of a question mark (Kent State). A good test will be their next two games: true road games at Virginia and Arkansas. They are better than those two teams, but they're also a team that might be riding a little bit too high, and that might have celebrated this Butler win just a little bit too much. I'd like to see whether they take care of business, or collect another weak loss. They are in contention to win Conference USA, which appears to be between them, Memphis, Tulsa and UTEP. But the conference won't get four Tournament teams, so UAB needs to distinguish themselves somehow. As for Butler, this is probably a game they didn't take seriously enough, but they've accrued enough quality wins that they can still get a pretty good NCAA Tournament seed if they can avoid more than two losses in the Horizon League. It continues to be disturbing how Matt Howard can't stay on the floor, managing to foul himself out again here despite the fact that UAB spends most of their time with four guards on the floor. If only he could live up to the promise he had when he first showed up on campus, this Butler team might actually be in the conversation as a potential Final Four team. Their other four starters are just really, really good (despite being ice cold from behind the arc in this particular game).
#1 Kansas 84, California 69
This game was closer than the final score, with Cal and Kansas exchanging small leads the whole way until nearly midway through the second half, with Kansas finally opening things up in the final five minutes. It seemed like Cal just wore out from the tempo, and the fact that they don't have the kind of depth that Kansas has (Cal played six guys for 8+ minutes, Kansas played nine). Cal also seemed a little bit out of control at times, rushing three-pointers early in the shot clock before their offense was set. But that said, they were playing a true road game against the best team in the country, so it's hard to get too down on this performance. They appear to be playing a lot better than they were in November, and the return of Theo Robertson really helps as well. I still think that they will battle with Washington for the Pac-10 title. Those two teams also happen to be the only Pac-10 teams who look like safe at-large teams at this point. As for Kansas, it's nice to see them playing some legitimate teams. Their schedule up through December 15th or so was a joke. They now have two intriguing true road games before starting Big 12 play: Temple and Tennessee. Kansas is an experienced team that should not be rattled away from home, but you never know what will happen the first time all season that you venture onto a truly hostile court against a quality opponent.
Despite the final score, Michigan State actually led most of this game, and Texas didn't open this game up until the final three minutes. But I feel like Tom Izzo had a bad plan of attack here, trying to run with a Texas team that is more built to run, and that has more bodies they can throw on the floor. Dogus Balbay did a great job shutting down Kalin Lucas (11 points on 11 shots from the field, along with 2 assists and 6 turnovers), which put way too much pressure on Korie Lucious. Lucious played pretty well for most of the game, but looked lost late in the game. With Lucas shut down, Michigan State really should have slowed things down and pounded the ball inside. By putting too much in the hands of inferior guards, they ended up with 22 turnovers. Both teams ended up rushing way too many shots early in the shot clock, explaining the lack of offensive rebounds by two teams that are generally pretty good at those (10 combined for both teams). It's hard to argue with what Texas has done over the last week, beating both North Carolina and Michigan State soundly, but if there's one word of caution it's that Texas hasn't yet proven that they can win away from home. I know that the UNC game was technically a "neutral court" game, but it was in Cowboys Stadium. They have had only one true road game, and it was in state against a bad Rice team. Their two true neutral court games were against Iowa and Pittsburgh, who both gave Texas a lot of trouble (they were losing to Pitt at halftime, and were tied at halftime with Iowa). I'm curious to see how they respond to a true road game against Arkansas on January 5th. Arkansas is a bad team (Sagarin rates them 185th), but I want to see Texas play like this in a truly hostile crowd. As for Michigan State, they appear to have found their ceiling, as they've lost to the three truly elite teams they've played. They do have that four point win over Gonzaga, but their next best win is probably over UMass. They get a fairly easy start to Big Ten play, so if Michigan State is going to have any chance of competing for a Big Ten title they've got to get off to a quick start.
UAB 67, #16 Butler 57
Don't look now, but UAB might actually be a good team. A lot of people thought UAB would be down this year now that the last of Mike Davis's Indiana transfers is gone, but we forget that as much as Davis had yet to really prove himself as a good game manager, he is unquestionably a good recruiter. He has done a good job at bringing in some transfers and quality recruits, and he's got a team that is a legitimate bubble team. They are now 11-1 with wins over Cincinnati and Butler, although the one loss is a bit of a question mark (Kent State). A good test will be their next two games: true road games at Virginia and Arkansas. They are better than those two teams, but they're also a team that might be riding a little bit too high, and that might have celebrated this Butler win just a little bit too much. I'd like to see whether they take care of business, or collect another weak loss. They are in contention to win Conference USA, which appears to be between them, Memphis, Tulsa and UTEP. But the conference won't get four Tournament teams, so UAB needs to distinguish themselves somehow. As for Butler, this is probably a game they didn't take seriously enough, but they've accrued enough quality wins that they can still get a pretty good NCAA Tournament seed if they can avoid more than two losses in the Horizon League. It continues to be disturbing how Matt Howard can't stay on the floor, managing to foul himself out again here despite the fact that UAB spends most of their time with four guards on the floor. If only he could live up to the promise he had when he first showed up on campus, this Butler team might actually be in the conversation as a potential Final Four team. Their other four starters are just really, really good (despite being ice cold from behind the arc in this particular game).
#1 Kansas 84, California 69
This game was closer than the final score, with Cal and Kansas exchanging small leads the whole way until nearly midway through the second half, with Kansas finally opening things up in the final five minutes. It seemed like Cal just wore out from the tempo, and the fact that they don't have the kind of depth that Kansas has (Cal played six guys for 8+ minutes, Kansas played nine). Cal also seemed a little bit out of control at times, rushing three-pointers early in the shot clock before their offense was set. But that said, they were playing a true road game against the best team in the country, so it's hard to get too down on this performance. They appear to be playing a lot better than they were in November, and the return of Theo Robertson really helps as well. I still think that they will battle with Washington for the Pac-10 title. Those two teams also happen to be the only Pac-10 teams who look like safe at-large teams at this point. As for Kansas, it's nice to see them playing some legitimate teams. Their schedule up through December 15th or so was a joke. They now have two intriguing true road games before starting Big 12 play: Temple and Tennessee. Kansas is an experienced team that should not be rattled away from home, but you never know what will happen the first time all season that you venture onto a truly hostile court against a quality opponent.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Georgia Tech Struggles In ACC Opener
Florida State 66, #15 Georgia Tech 59
At this point, we know what Florida State brings to the table. They are athletic and tenacious, and so are excellent defensively (Pomeroy rates their defense 7th in the nation) and get a lot of offensive rebounds (Pomeroy rates their offensive rebounding 28th). But they haven't been able to replace Toney Douglas offensively, and not only struggle to score but are extremely sloppy offensively (Pomeroy rates their offensive turnover percentage 337th in the nation). In this game, Georgia Tech did a good job of rebounding (both teams had 40), but they were clearly bothered by Florida State's defensive length, especially on the inside. Gani Lawal was 1-for-7 from the field, and team as a whole only hit 33% from the field. Lawal has been the key for Georgia Tech for a couple of years now, and they struggle to win when he's not playing well. They might want to think about giving Zachery Peacock more playing time at the expense of Brian Oliver, who is a talented freshman who is just a little bit too inconsistent to start for a Top 15 team. Florida State is now 11-2 with wins over Marquette, Alabama and Auburn to go with this one, and both losses were quality losses. Their weak schedule is a detriment, but all of the computers have them around 40th-45th in the nation, which means they look like a true bubble team. They have two easy out-of-conference games remaining, which means that they should end up 12-2 in out-of-conference games with an out-of-conference strength of schedule that will probably end up around 250th. That's good enough that a 10-6 ACC record should get them into the Tournament. If they go 8-8 or 9-7 then it's going to depend on who they beat and when they beat them. As for Georgia Tech, they clearly seem to have fallen far below UNC and Duke atop the ACC. But I don't think they've played any worse than any of the other ACC teams, and so are still a serious contender to finish in third place.
UTEP 89, Oklahoma 74
I continue to be confused by Oklahoma's poor play. Willie Warren is one of the best players in the Big 12, and they have a few decent support players (Tony Crocker, Tommy Mason-Griffith), along with a pretty good coach. But they have are 8-4 with zero good wins, and with all four of those losses coming to mid-major conference teams. Their defense was truly atrocious here, forcing only 8 turnovers and allowing 58% shooting from the field. Part of it was UTEP just hitting their shots, but Oklahoma's defense has to take a lot of the blame. Oklahoma's lack of depth is also disconcerting (they had 2 points scored by non-starters in this game) when you consider how insanely deep Kansas and Texas are. Oklahoma gets a shot at Gonzaga on New Year's Eve, but even with a win there they'll still have some ground to make up on the other bubble teams in Big 12 play. As for UTEP, they along with UAB are really starting to make some noise in Conference USA. I, along with most analysts, felt the conference would be a battle all season long between Memphis and Tulsa. But UAB and UTEP have played as well as either of those two teams (Sagarin's PREDICTOR puts all four between 30th and 39th in the nation). UTEP still has a couple more chances for scalps before Conference USA play begins for them on January 6th, but they're going to have to win a lot of conference games regardless. Conference USA will not get four Tournament teams, so UTEP will have to distinguish themselves.
Nebraska 74, Tulsa 70
Speaking of Conference USA, this is a pretty disappointing loss for a Tulsa team that hasn't really found itself yet. They are now 9-3 with all three losses against decent, but not great opponents, and their only good win is over Oklahoma State. They obviously have as good of a chance as anybody at collecting Conference USA's automatic bid, but in lieu of that they will probably need to go 12-4 in conference play to get an at-large bid (unless they knock off Duke on February 25th). As for Nebraska, they are now 9-2, although this is their best win. I still don't think they have the horses for a serious at-large run, but they haven't played themselves out of anything yet. We'll see how they get started in Big 12 play.
At this point, we know what Florida State brings to the table. They are athletic and tenacious, and so are excellent defensively (Pomeroy rates their defense 7th in the nation) and get a lot of offensive rebounds (Pomeroy rates their offensive rebounding 28th). But they haven't been able to replace Toney Douglas offensively, and not only struggle to score but are extremely sloppy offensively (Pomeroy rates their offensive turnover percentage 337th in the nation). In this game, Georgia Tech did a good job of rebounding (both teams had 40), but they were clearly bothered by Florida State's defensive length, especially on the inside. Gani Lawal was 1-for-7 from the field, and team as a whole only hit 33% from the field. Lawal has been the key for Georgia Tech for a couple of years now, and they struggle to win when he's not playing well. They might want to think about giving Zachery Peacock more playing time at the expense of Brian Oliver, who is a talented freshman who is just a little bit too inconsistent to start for a Top 15 team. Florida State is now 11-2 with wins over Marquette, Alabama and Auburn to go with this one, and both losses were quality losses. Their weak schedule is a detriment, but all of the computers have them around 40th-45th in the nation, which means they look like a true bubble team. They have two easy out-of-conference games remaining, which means that they should end up 12-2 in out-of-conference games with an out-of-conference strength of schedule that will probably end up around 250th. That's good enough that a 10-6 ACC record should get them into the Tournament. If they go 8-8 or 9-7 then it's going to depend on who they beat and when they beat them. As for Georgia Tech, they clearly seem to have fallen far below UNC and Duke atop the ACC. But I don't think they've played any worse than any of the other ACC teams, and so are still a serious contender to finish in third place.
UTEP 89, Oklahoma 74
I continue to be confused by Oklahoma's poor play. Willie Warren is one of the best players in the Big 12, and they have a few decent support players (Tony Crocker, Tommy Mason-Griffith), along with a pretty good coach. But they have are 8-4 with zero good wins, and with all four of those losses coming to mid-major conference teams. Their defense was truly atrocious here, forcing only 8 turnovers and allowing 58% shooting from the field. Part of it was UTEP just hitting their shots, but Oklahoma's defense has to take a lot of the blame. Oklahoma's lack of depth is also disconcerting (they had 2 points scored by non-starters in this game) when you consider how insanely deep Kansas and Texas are. Oklahoma gets a shot at Gonzaga on New Year's Eve, but even with a win there they'll still have some ground to make up on the other bubble teams in Big 12 play. As for UTEP, they along with UAB are really starting to make some noise in Conference USA. I, along with most analysts, felt the conference would be a battle all season long between Memphis and Tulsa. But UAB and UTEP have played as well as either of those two teams (Sagarin's PREDICTOR puts all four between 30th and 39th in the nation). UTEP still has a couple more chances for scalps before Conference USA play begins for them on January 6th, but they're going to have to win a lot of conference games regardless. Conference USA will not get four Tournament teams, so UTEP will have to distinguish themselves.
Nebraska 74, Tulsa 70
Speaking of Conference USA, this is a pretty disappointing loss for a Tulsa team that hasn't really found itself yet. They are now 9-3 with all three losses against decent, but not great opponents, and their only good win is over Oklahoma State. They obviously have as good of a chance as anybody at collecting Conference USA's automatic bid, but in lieu of that they will probably need to go 12-4 in conference play to get an at-large bid (unless they knock off Duke on February 25th). As for Nebraska, they are now 9-2, although this is their best win. I still don't think they have the horses for a serious at-large run, but they haven't played themselves out of anything yet. We'll see how they get started in Big 12 play.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Three Final Saturday Recaps
I wanted to do a little catching up with three final games from Saturday I haven't gotten to yet. There were some good games last night, and obviously a bunch of good games tonight, and I'll probably get to those tomorrow night. It's worth noting that there are no Division I college basketball games Thursday or Friday (other than the Diamond Head Classic, I believe), so there's plenty of time for catching up. Without further ado:
Old Dominion 61, #11 Georgetown 57
This was yet another one of those bizarre results from Saturday. I wouldn't put too much stock into this result for a few reasons. Obviously we have a lot of weird results in this period around finals and holiday vacations, and in addition we had a Georgetown team that had survived a whole bunch of close wins and was due to finally lose a game. They now fall to 8-1, and despite this loss remain in the discussion of potential Big East champions. They play a good Harvard team tomorrow before opening Big East play New Year's Eve against St. John's. I'm looking at a January 9th home game against UConn as an early test of whether this Georgetown team can win a Big East crown. As for Old Dominion, you have to admire the way that they fought to a draw on the boards against a big Georgetown team, despite getting very little production from their only legitimate big man: 6'10" Gerald Lee. They outhustled and outworked Georgetown, and it paid off with their biggest win of the year. Old Dominion moves to only 7-4, but they have zero losses to teams I expect to finish outside the RPI Top 100, and actually have a Sagarin PREDICTOR of 23rd. I doubt that computer number will hold up, but the Monarchs can actually put together a pretty decent at-large resume if they can beat Charlotte and Duquesne at home before heading back into Colonial play. I see it as unlikely for the Colonial to be a multi-bid league this season, but it's possible if Old Dominion, William & Mary and VCU keep rolling over teams the way they have and all run up good records.
Temple 71, Seton Hall 65
Seton Hall actually entered this game 8-0 and nearing the Top 25, but that record had more to do with a joke schedule than anything else. A ten point home victory over Cornell is their best win of the season. I find it bizarre for a likely bubble team like Seton Hall to play such an easy schedule, because it softens them up for the early part of Big East play, and puts them at a disadvantage on Selection Sunday against teams with better wins and computer numbers. And they might find themselves punished immediately as they open up Big East play against West Virginia on December 26th, and then play Syracuse on the 29th. Seton Hall isn't as good as those teams in any case, but I find it hard to believe that they'll be able to hang with teams that have toughened themselves up against good opponents. It might take a few Big East games for Seton Hall to get up to speed. I still don't think they're going to make the NCAA Tournament, and this out-of-conference schedule is a big reason why. As for Temple, they move to 8-2 with a number of quality wins (Villanova, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Siena, Seton Hall) and zero bad losses. They now play two inferior opponents before a big home game against Kansas on January 2nd, where they can really make a national name for themselves. But even with a loss to Kansas they have collected enough good scalps that an 11-5 Atlantic Ten record really should be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament.
Wichita State 85, #20 Texas Tech
This game was a little reality check for a Texas Tech team that shouldn't be ranked 20th in the country. They just bounced back a few minutes ago (as I'm typing this) with a win over Stanford, which is an encouraging sign, but I still need to see Texas Tech play some more quality teams before I really buy into them. I'm really curious to see how the Red Raiders handle a match-up next Tuesday night at New Mexico, which will likely enter the game 13-0 and ranked 10th or 11th in the country. It will be Texas Tech's last chance for a second big win before Big 12 play begins (Washington being the other). As for Wichita State, they have quietly moved up to 11-1, with the sole loss a neutral court affair to Pittsburgh. This is their best win, but they also have decent wins against Iowa, TCU and Cleveland State. Their RPI is only 88th because of the weak schedule, but Sagarin's PREDICTOR puts them 63rd and Pomeroy has them 62nd, which means that they're in a position to make a run for an at-large bid. The Missouri Valley might be a one-bid league again, but Wichita State appears to at least be in the discussion for an at-large if they can finish 12-6 or better in conference games. They open up Missouri Valley play on the 29th at Illinois State.
Old Dominion 61, #11 Georgetown 57
This was yet another one of those bizarre results from Saturday. I wouldn't put too much stock into this result for a few reasons. Obviously we have a lot of weird results in this period around finals and holiday vacations, and in addition we had a Georgetown team that had survived a whole bunch of close wins and was due to finally lose a game. They now fall to 8-1, and despite this loss remain in the discussion of potential Big East champions. They play a good Harvard team tomorrow before opening Big East play New Year's Eve against St. John's. I'm looking at a January 9th home game against UConn as an early test of whether this Georgetown team can win a Big East crown. As for Old Dominion, you have to admire the way that they fought to a draw on the boards against a big Georgetown team, despite getting very little production from their only legitimate big man: 6'10" Gerald Lee. They outhustled and outworked Georgetown, and it paid off with their biggest win of the year. Old Dominion moves to only 7-4, but they have zero losses to teams I expect to finish outside the RPI Top 100, and actually have a Sagarin PREDICTOR of 23rd. I doubt that computer number will hold up, but the Monarchs can actually put together a pretty decent at-large resume if they can beat Charlotte and Duquesne at home before heading back into Colonial play. I see it as unlikely for the Colonial to be a multi-bid league this season, but it's possible if Old Dominion, William & Mary and VCU keep rolling over teams the way they have and all run up good records.
Temple 71, Seton Hall 65
Seton Hall actually entered this game 8-0 and nearing the Top 25, but that record had more to do with a joke schedule than anything else. A ten point home victory over Cornell is their best win of the season. I find it bizarre for a likely bubble team like Seton Hall to play such an easy schedule, because it softens them up for the early part of Big East play, and puts them at a disadvantage on Selection Sunday against teams with better wins and computer numbers. And they might find themselves punished immediately as they open up Big East play against West Virginia on December 26th, and then play Syracuse on the 29th. Seton Hall isn't as good as those teams in any case, but I find it hard to believe that they'll be able to hang with teams that have toughened themselves up against good opponents. It might take a few Big East games for Seton Hall to get up to speed. I still don't think they're going to make the NCAA Tournament, and this out-of-conference schedule is a big reason why. As for Temple, they move to 8-2 with a number of quality wins (Villanova, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Siena, Seton Hall) and zero bad losses. They now play two inferior opponents before a big home game against Kansas on January 2nd, where they can really make a national name for themselves. But even with a loss to Kansas they have collected enough good scalps that an 11-5 Atlantic Ten record really should be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament.
Wichita State 85, #20 Texas Tech
This game was a little reality check for a Texas Tech team that shouldn't be ranked 20th in the country. They just bounced back a few minutes ago (as I'm typing this) with a win over Stanford, which is an encouraging sign, but I still need to see Texas Tech play some more quality teams before I really buy into them. I'm really curious to see how the Red Raiders handle a match-up next Tuesday night at New Mexico, which will likely enter the game 13-0 and ranked 10th or 11th in the country. It will be Texas Tech's last chance for a second big win before Big 12 play begins (Washington being the other). As for Wichita State, they have quietly moved up to 11-1, with the sole loss a neutral court affair to Pittsburgh. This is their best win, but they also have decent wins against Iowa, TCU and Cleveland State. Their RPI is only 88th because of the weak schedule, but Sagarin's PREDICTOR puts them 63rd and Pomeroy has them 62nd, which means that they're in a position to make a run for an at-large bid. The Missouri Valley might be a one-bid league again, but Wichita State appears to at least be in the discussion for an at-large if they can finish 12-6 or better in conference games. They open up Missouri Valley play on the 29th at Illinois State.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Richmond Knocks Off Florida
Richmond 56, #13 Florida 53
There are a few reasons not to draw too much out of this result. There are always weird results this time of year, and this was one of several surprising Top 25 results yesterday. Also, Richmond was coming off two straight tough losses and was highly motivated to turn things around, while Florida was overrated and due for a reality check (the computers rank them near 40th in the nation). Still, a result is a result, and this really helps rebuild Richmond's at-large resume. They are now 8-3 with wins over Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida, with losses to William & Mary, VCU and South Carolina. Their RPI is up to 22nd in the nation, and a New Year's Eve game at Wake Forest looms as their last really good opponent before A-10 regular season play begins. The key will be finishing high in the A-10 standings, because as good as the conference is it's going to be difficult for a team like Richmond to earn an at-large bid if they don't finish fourth or higher in the regular season. As for Florida, they now fall to 8-2 with four very winnable games before SEC play begins. Right now they appear to be the third best team in the SEC and, despite not being the 13th best team in the country, they should end up safely in the NCAA Tournament.
UMass 73, Memphis 72
This was the John Calipari Bowl in more than one way. Both of these schools formerly hired John Calipari, Calipari took both schools to the Final Four, and both schools had a Calipari-led Final Four wiped from the books because of NCAA violations.`The head coaches of both of these schools are young 30-something coaches who were assistants under Calipari and are now in their first head coaching job (UMass's Derek Kellogg is in his second year, Memphis's Josh Pastner is in his first). And both head coaches are known for their recruiting prowess, but still have to learn about in-game management. This game was not exactly a coaching clinic. It was perfectly apt that the game ended with a UMass inbounds play that went awry, with the ball bouncing around a few players and just ending up in the hands of freshman Terrell Vinson for a five footer to win with 0.7 seconds to go. While Memphis will regret not winning this game, situations like this are invaluable for young teams trying to find themselves. This is the first real hostile crowd that they've had to play in, and it will prepare them well for road games in Conference USA. Memphis has rolled through Conference USA ever since the other C-USA powers were poached by the Big East, and enters this season with 49 straight regular season wins in conference play. But this year will not be so easy, without John Calipari, without many of their stars, and with an improved set of opponents. They needed a game like this to get them ready. As for UMass, this is a nice win, but they are nowhere near being serious contenders for an at-large bid. All of the computers rate them in the bottom half of the Atlantic Ten, and this is their first good win to go with a couple of bad losses (Central Florida and Rutgers), and they are still only 5-5 overall. If they win their next two games, at Boston College and at Davidson, and build a better-than-.500 record in conference play, then and only then is it worthwhile to discuss them in the at-large picture.
Arizona State 55, San Diego State 52
Arizona State continues to be a team that plays better than the sum of their parts. They didn't shoot well here and were facing a very good San Diego State squad that was a lot bigger in the paint, but found a way to pull out the victory by taking care of the ball and forcing 23 turnovers. Arizona State now moves to 8-3 with no bad losses, although they don't have any great wins either (LSU, TCU and San Diego State are the best). Assuming they take care of the two cream puffs on their schedule before Pac-10 play begins, they may or may not be able to make the NCAA Tournament with a 10-8 conference result, but an 11-7 record or better should be enough. As for San Diego State, this was a missed opportunity, but it will not go down as a bad loss. I like the fact that they go solidly nine players deep. The Mountain West is as good this year as it's been the past few years, and you need a deep rotation when you are going to have to put in a good performance night in and night out to keep winning. With the loss they are 8-3 with one good win (Arizona) and one mediocre loss (Pacific). It's not a Tournament resume yet, but both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as a Top 40 team. While they're good enough to make the Tournament, it's eventually got to show in their resume. They'll get a chance for a good win on January 5th, when a potentially undefeated New Mexico team comes to town.
There are a few reasons not to draw too much out of this result. There are always weird results this time of year, and this was one of several surprising Top 25 results yesterday. Also, Richmond was coming off two straight tough losses and was highly motivated to turn things around, while Florida was overrated and due for a reality check (the computers rank them near 40th in the nation). Still, a result is a result, and this really helps rebuild Richmond's at-large resume. They are now 8-3 with wins over Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida, with losses to William & Mary, VCU and South Carolina. Their RPI is up to 22nd in the nation, and a New Year's Eve game at Wake Forest looms as their last really good opponent before A-10 regular season play begins. The key will be finishing high in the A-10 standings, because as good as the conference is it's going to be difficult for a team like Richmond to earn an at-large bid if they don't finish fourth or higher in the regular season. As for Florida, they now fall to 8-2 with four very winnable games before SEC play begins. Right now they appear to be the third best team in the SEC and, despite not being the 13th best team in the country, they should end up safely in the NCAA Tournament.
UMass 73, Memphis 72
This was the John Calipari Bowl in more than one way. Both of these schools formerly hired John Calipari, Calipari took both schools to the Final Four, and both schools had a Calipari-led Final Four wiped from the books because of NCAA violations.`The head coaches of both of these schools are young 30-something coaches who were assistants under Calipari and are now in their first head coaching job (UMass's Derek Kellogg is in his second year, Memphis's Josh Pastner is in his first). And both head coaches are known for their recruiting prowess, but still have to learn about in-game management. This game was not exactly a coaching clinic. It was perfectly apt that the game ended with a UMass inbounds play that went awry, with the ball bouncing around a few players and just ending up in the hands of freshman Terrell Vinson for a five footer to win with 0.7 seconds to go. While Memphis will regret not winning this game, situations like this are invaluable for young teams trying to find themselves. This is the first real hostile crowd that they've had to play in, and it will prepare them well for road games in Conference USA. Memphis has rolled through Conference USA ever since the other C-USA powers were poached by the Big East, and enters this season with 49 straight regular season wins in conference play. But this year will not be so easy, without John Calipari, without many of their stars, and with an improved set of opponents. They needed a game like this to get them ready. As for UMass, this is a nice win, but they are nowhere near being serious contenders for an at-large bid. All of the computers rate them in the bottom half of the Atlantic Ten, and this is their first good win to go with a couple of bad losses (Central Florida and Rutgers), and they are still only 5-5 overall. If they win their next two games, at Boston College and at Davidson, and build a better-than-.500 record in conference play, then and only then is it worthwhile to discuss them in the at-large picture.
Arizona State 55, San Diego State 52
Arizona State continues to be a team that plays better than the sum of their parts. They didn't shoot well here and were facing a very good San Diego State squad that was a lot bigger in the paint, but found a way to pull out the victory by taking care of the ball and forcing 23 turnovers. Arizona State now moves to 8-3 with no bad losses, although they don't have any great wins either (LSU, TCU and San Diego State are the best). Assuming they take care of the two cream puffs on their schedule before Pac-10 play begins, they may or may not be able to make the NCAA Tournament with a 10-8 conference result, but an 11-7 record or better should be enough. As for San Diego State, this was a missed opportunity, but it will not go down as a bad loss. I like the fact that they go solidly nine players deep. The Mountain West is as good this year as it's been the past few years, and you need a deep rotation when you are going to have to put in a good performance night in and night out to keep winning. With the loss they are 8-3 with one good win (Arizona) and one mediocre loss (Pacific). It's not a Tournament resume yet, but both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as a Top 40 team. While they're good enough to make the Tournament, it's eventually got to show in their resume. They'll get a chance for a good win on January 5th, when a potentially undefeated New Mexico team comes to town.
Texas Outmuscles North Carolina
#2 Texas 103, #10 North Carolina 90
Analysts often talk about how North Carolina has NBA size, because they have so many players who are 6'9 or taller, but I would disagree: North Carolina has NBA height. The problem is that other than Deon Thompson their other big men are all very skinny. Texas just shoved Tar Heels players out of the way around the basket, forcing Roy Williams to often go with a very tall and slow lineup to try to alleviate some of their post problems (I particularly disliked it when both Wear brothers were on the floor at the same time). Texas ended up with a remarkable 26 offensive rebounds, with a total of 20 more rebounds than Carolina had. Who would have thought that this year's North Carolina team could play a game where their backcourt outplayed their opponent and they still lost by double-digits? Once again Dexter Strickland was a spark plug for the Tar Heels, and if I was Roy I would throw him into the starting lineup and give less time to Will Graves, who tends to play out of control. For Texas, not only did their frontcourt play well, but this was probably the best that superfrosh Avery Bradley has played all season. He was the one Texas guard who wasn't outplayed by his North Carolina opponent. It was also good for them to get Jai Lucas on the court after his transfer from Florida. He played sparingly here, but when he gets back into game shape he will provide much needed backcourt depth with the Varez Ward injury. Texas also has to get confidence from the fact that they saw Kansas actually get outplayed in the paint by Michigan. The Longhorns don't have the guard play that Kansas has, but if they can dominate them inside like they dominated North Carolina, there's no reason that they can't beat the Jayhawks and win the Big 12.
#7 Duke 76, #15 Gonzaga 41
We often get odd results this time of the year with students distracted by finals and the holidays, but even though Duke is the better team and was favored in this game I don't think anybody saw this level of demolition coming. Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer alone outscored the entire Gonzaga team. After the way that Wisconsin's guards torched Duke in their last tough game, it's safe to say that backcourt defense was a big focus for the Blue Devils in practice recently. They completely shut down Gonzaga's trio of Steven Gray, Matt Bouldin and Demetri Goodson, who combined for 12 points on 5-for-18 shooting, with 5 assists and 9 turnovers. Duke will now clearly be the highest ranked ACC team, although I still think UNC is the favorite. But those two teams have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the conference, and could end up in a two-team duel all season long. Duke opens ACC play on January 3rd against Clemson. As for Gonzaga, you have to start wondering if we need to reevaluate this whole team. They still have that win at the Maui Invitational, but that four point win over Colorado and the two point win over Cincinnati don't look nearly as impressive as they did a month ago, and their only good win outside of that tournament was a five-pointer over Washington State. They are now 8-3, and both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR rate them around 75th in the nation. They have two more tough out-of-conference games (vs Oklahoma, at Illinois) before starting the WCC with about as tough of a three game stretch as a team can have in that conference this season (at Portland, at Saint Mary's, at San Diego), so I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Gonzaga lose a couple of those games to lead into a few "Is Gonzaga a bubble team?" discussions. I still think Gonzaga will end up safely in the NCAA Tournament, but they haven't locked anything up yet.
USC 77, #8 Tennessee 55
Yet another one of the really bizarre results yesterday. You never want to draw too many conclusions from a game that was obviously a fluke result, but I'm going to point to Tennessee's three-point shooting. Despite the blowout score, I watched much of the second half and it kept feeling like USC was trying to let them back in the game but they couldn't hit an outside shot. Their 2-for-22 shooting behind the arc here was obviously a bit of an extreme, but they have never been a particularly good outside shooting team. They have a bad habit of settling for too many outside shots when they're struggling to score, and when they lose bad games it always tends to have the same pattern: they miss a lot of three pointers, yet keep firing away. Tennessee remains a contender to win the SEC, but they're going to have to get smarter and more efficient with their outside shooting. Kentucky is a poor free throwing shooting team, and I can easily visualize a scenario where Tennessee is fouling and trying to get back into a game against Kentucky in the final minutes, and they need those outside shots to fall. As for USC, they got a huge boost from Charlotte transfer Michael Gerrity, who was making his debut for the Trojans. Don't pay attention to Gerrity's 1-for-7 shooting from the field, and focus instead on his 10 assists and 10-for-11 free throw shooting. Gerrity absolutely torched Tennessee's athletic defenders, and now forms a pretty darn good backcourt with Dwight Lewis (who led all scorers with 21 points here). A big win like this inevitably leads to optimistic USC fans wondering if they can make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid, which would be a wonderful result considering the low expectations coming into the year. I'd caution them not to get too confident from one fluke game. They are still 5-4 with only one good win and at least one bad loss (Loyola Marymount). They now head to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic where they will get more chances for good wins, but they've got a lot of work to do to get into the bubble picture. It doesn't help that the Pac-10 is so weak this year.
Analysts often talk about how North Carolina has NBA size, because they have so many players who are 6'9 or taller, but I would disagree: North Carolina has NBA height. The problem is that other than Deon Thompson their other big men are all very skinny. Texas just shoved Tar Heels players out of the way around the basket, forcing Roy Williams to often go with a very tall and slow lineup to try to alleviate some of their post problems (I particularly disliked it when both Wear brothers were on the floor at the same time). Texas ended up with a remarkable 26 offensive rebounds, with a total of 20 more rebounds than Carolina had. Who would have thought that this year's North Carolina team could play a game where their backcourt outplayed their opponent and they still lost by double-digits? Once again Dexter Strickland was a spark plug for the Tar Heels, and if I was Roy I would throw him into the starting lineup and give less time to Will Graves, who tends to play out of control. For Texas, not only did their frontcourt play well, but this was probably the best that superfrosh Avery Bradley has played all season. He was the one Texas guard who wasn't outplayed by his North Carolina opponent. It was also good for them to get Jai Lucas on the court after his transfer from Florida. He played sparingly here, but when he gets back into game shape he will provide much needed backcourt depth with the Varez Ward injury. Texas also has to get confidence from the fact that they saw Kansas actually get outplayed in the paint by Michigan. The Longhorns don't have the guard play that Kansas has, but if they can dominate them inside like they dominated North Carolina, there's no reason that they can't beat the Jayhawks and win the Big 12.
#7 Duke 76, #15 Gonzaga 41
We often get odd results this time of the year with students distracted by finals and the holidays, but even though Duke is the better team and was favored in this game I don't think anybody saw this level of demolition coming. Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer alone outscored the entire Gonzaga team. After the way that Wisconsin's guards torched Duke in their last tough game, it's safe to say that backcourt defense was a big focus for the Blue Devils in practice recently. They completely shut down Gonzaga's trio of Steven Gray, Matt Bouldin and Demetri Goodson, who combined for 12 points on 5-for-18 shooting, with 5 assists and 9 turnovers. Duke will now clearly be the highest ranked ACC team, although I still think UNC is the favorite. But those two teams have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the conference, and could end up in a two-team duel all season long. Duke opens ACC play on January 3rd against Clemson. As for Gonzaga, you have to start wondering if we need to reevaluate this whole team. They still have that win at the Maui Invitational, but that four point win over Colorado and the two point win over Cincinnati don't look nearly as impressive as they did a month ago, and their only good win outside of that tournament was a five-pointer over Washington State. They are now 8-3, and both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR rate them around 75th in the nation. They have two more tough out-of-conference games (vs Oklahoma, at Illinois) before starting the WCC with about as tough of a three game stretch as a team can have in that conference this season (at Portland, at Saint Mary's, at San Diego), so I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Gonzaga lose a couple of those games to lead into a few "Is Gonzaga a bubble team?" discussions. I still think Gonzaga will end up safely in the NCAA Tournament, but they haven't locked anything up yet.
USC 77, #8 Tennessee 55
Yet another one of the really bizarre results yesterday. You never want to draw too many conclusions from a game that was obviously a fluke result, but I'm going to point to Tennessee's three-point shooting. Despite the blowout score, I watched much of the second half and it kept feeling like USC was trying to let them back in the game but they couldn't hit an outside shot. Their 2-for-22 shooting behind the arc here was obviously a bit of an extreme, but they have never been a particularly good outside shooting team. They have a bad habit of settling for too many outside shots when they're struggling to score, and when they lose bad games it always tends to have the same pattern: they miss a lot of three pointers, yet keep firing away. Tennessee remains a contender to win the SEC, but they're going to have to get smarter and more efficient with their outside shooting. Kentucky is a poor free throwing shooting team, and I can easily visualize a scenario where Tennessee is fouling and trying to get back into a game against Kentucky in the final minutes, and they need those outside shots to fall. As for USC, they got a huge boost from Charlotte transfer Michael Gerrity, who was making his debut for the Trojans. Don't pay attention to Gerrity's 1-for-7 shooting from the field, and focus instead on his 10 assists and 10-for-11 free throw shooting. Gerrity absolutely torched Tennessee's athletic defenders, and now forms a pretty darn good backcourt with Dwight Lewis (who led all scorers with 21 points here). A big win like this inevitably leads to optimistic USC fans wondering if they can make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid, which would be a wonderful result considering the low expectations coming into the year. I'd caution them not to get too confident from one fluke game. They are still 5-4 with only one good win and at least one bad loss (Loyola Marymount). They now head to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic where they will get more chances for good wins, but they've got a lot of work to do to get into the bubble picture. It doesn't help that the Pac-10 is so weak this year.
Butler Gets Controversial Win Over Xavier
#17 Butler 69, Xavier 68
This game had a very bizarre ending. On the final play of the game the clock inexplicably stopped for a short period of time, Gordon Hayward then took a shot with 1.6 seconds on the clock that went through the net with 1.2 seconds on the clock. The refs then took about 10 minutes staring at monitors (supposedly it took three of four minutes just to get them a digital timer), and decided that the clock had stopped for exactly 1.3 seconds, meaning Hayward's shot counted but the game was over. Xavier fans were furious, and I think the refs messed this one up. They could have stopped the game when the clock stoppage happened, but if they didn't notice it then they should have just let Xavier have the ball with 1.2 on the clock. The clock operator makes split second human errors all the time during a game, and the players are taught to play the clock. If they had ruled that the clock had actually stopped for 2 seconds and wiped off Hayward's shot I would have found that wrong as well - the players were planning their actions based on the clock as they saw it, and you can't penalize them after the fact because the game officials goofed. But that said, this game meant more to Butler than Xavier anyway. They needed to prove that the win over the Evan Turner-less Ohio State Buckeyes was not a fluke, and now have a second very good win to go along with it (they also have wins over Northwestern and UCLA, but Xavier is better than those two teams). Xavier misses a big opportunity, but their season was going to come down to Atlantic Ten play anyway. The A-10 is good enough that Xavier just needs an 11-5 or 12-4 record and they'll be in good shape for an at-large bid. They've been playing better as the season has gone along, and will be toughened by this fairly strong out-of-conference schedule. Dayton has looked mortal these last few weeks, so don't be totally surprised to see Xavier contend for a conference title.
#1 Kansas 75, Michigan 64
Kansas opened up a 23 point lead in the first half before taking their foot off the pedal and letting Michigan back in the game. I put that mostly on the joke of a schedule Kansas has played thus far, where they've been used to getting an early lead and having their opponent roll over. Michigan is a resilient team that will get back in games if you let them. But when they were playing well, Kansas showed off that great athleticism and great depth. The return of Brady Morningstar paid off immediately because he was basically Manny Harris's shadow all game. Harris ended up with 16 points on 15 shots with 4 assists and 4 turnovers, which any opponent of Michigan will take in a heartbeat. The one worry I had for them was on the inside where Cole Aldrich was completely worked by DeShawn Sims. Sims is a good interior scorer, but Kansas will play better. They're going to have to do a better job of interior defense. But no team is perfect, and Kansas does still seem to be the clear best team in the nation. As for Michigan, obviously they could have used a road victory over the #1 team in the nation, but this wasn't exactly a win they were counting on. They are now 5-5 with no good wins (other than perhaps Creighton), but no particularly bad losses either. A .500 out-of-conference record is bad, and their computer numbers are weak (RPI of 209th, Sagarin PREDICTOR of 124th), but they haven't ruined their season yet. As bad as they've played, they can still get themselves right back into the at-large discussion with a little winning streak. They get a cupcake next, but then start their Big Ten schedule with about as easy of a stretch as you can have in that conference: at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Penn State, vs Northwestern, vs Indiana. They could easily win all of those games, especially since Evan Turner will not be back for that OSU game. So don't count Michigan out yet.
Notre Dame 84, UCLA 73
This was as well as the Irish have played all season long. Their entire starting lineup scored in double-digits and they hit over 50% of their shots from the field (including 9-for-17 behind the arc). Tory Jackson was probably the best of the bunch with 10 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds. They are now 10-2, but this is probably their best win of the year. And their losses aren't great: a narrow loss to Loyola Marymount and a 14 point drubbing by Northwestern. We'll learn a lot more about this team when Big East play begins, because they open with a brutal stretch. They play at UConn, vs West Virginia, at Cincinnati, vs Syracuse and at Villanova all before the end of January. If they can escape the month of January with a 4-4 Big East record then they'll be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. As for UCLA, I'm continuing my .500 watch, to see when/if the Bruins can get back to .500. They are now 3-7 with two relatively easy home games before Pac-10 play begins. Even if they take care of business in those two games they will need to go at least 12-6 in Pac-10 play to have a shot at an at-large bid. If there's one good thing going on with the Bruins program it's the development of some of the young players. I think Malcolm Lee is going to have to start leading this team, because in the times I've watched UCLA this season he's looked like their best player. It's hard for a sophomore to take a leadership role on a team with three senior starters, but Ben Howland is going to have to help him take that next step. The Bruins have to be focused on the future, because this season is basically lost.
This game had a very bizarre ending. On the final play of the game the clock inexplicably stopped for a short period of time, Gordon Hayward then took a shot with 1.6 seconds on the clock that went through the net with 1.2 seconds on the clock. The refs then took about 10 minutes staring at monitors (supposedly it took three of four minutes just to get them a digital timer), and decided that the clock had stopped for exactly 1.3 seconds, meaning Hayward's shot counted but the game was over. Xavier fans were furious, and I think the refs messed this one up. They could have stopped the game when the clock stoppage happened, but if they didn't notice it then they should have just let Xavier have the ball with 1.2 on the clock. The clock operator makes split second human errors all the time during a game, and the players are taught to play the clock. If they had ruled that the clock had actually stopped for 2 seconds and wiped off Hayward's shot I would have found that wrong as well - the players were planning their actions based on the clock as they saw it, and you can't penalize them after the fact because the game officials goofed. But that said, this game meant more to Butler than Xavier anyway. They needed to prove that the win over the Evan Turner-less Ohio State Buckeyes was not a fluke, and now have a second very good win to go along with it (they also have wins over Northwestern and UCLA, but Xavier is better than those two teams). Xavier misses a big opportunity, but their season was going to come down to Atlantic Ten play anyway. The A-10 is good enough that Xavier just needs an 11-5 or 12-4 record and they'll be in good shape for an at-large bid. They've been playing better as the season has gone along, and will be toughened by this fairly strong out-of-conference schedule. Dayton has looked mortal these last few weeks, so don't be totally surprised to see Xavier contend for a conference title.
#1 Kansas 75, Michigan 64
Kansas opened up a 23 point lead in the first half before taking their foot off the pedal and letting Michigan back in the game. I put that mostly on the joke of a schedule Kansas has played thus far, where they've been used to getting an early lead and having their opponent roll over. Michigan is a resilient team that will get back in games if you let them. But when they were playing well, Kansas showed off that great athleticism and great depth. The return of Brady Morningstar paid off immediately because he was basically Manny Harris's shadow all game. Harris ended up with 16 points on 15 shots with 4 assists and 4 turnovers, which any opponent of Michigan will take in a heartbeat. The one worry I had for them was on the inside where Cole Aldrich was completely worked by DeShawn Sims. Sims is a good interior scorer, but Kansas will play better. They're going to have to do a better job of interior defense. But no team is perfect, and Kansas does still seem to be the clear best team in the nation. As for Michigan, obviously they could have used a road victory over the #1 team in the nation, but this wasn't exactly a win they were counting on. They are now 5-5 with no good wins (other than perhaps Creighton), but no particularly bad losses either. A .500 out-of-conference record is bad, and their computer numbers are weak (RPI of 209th, Sagarin PREDICTOR of 124th), but they haven't ruined their season yet. As bad as they've played, they can still get themselves right back into the at-large discussion with a little winning streak. They get a cupcake next, but then start their Big Ten schedule with about as easy of a stretch as you can have in that conference: at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Penn State, vs Northwestern, vs Indiana. They could easily win all of those games, especially since Evan Turner will not be back for that OSU game. So don't count Michigan out yet.
Notre Dame 84, UCLA 73
This was as well as the Irish have played all season long. Their entire starting lineup scored in double-digits and they hit over 50% of their shots from the field (including 9-for-17 behind the arc). Tory Jackson was probably the best of the bunch with 10 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds. They are now 10-2, but this is probably their best win of the year. And their losses aren't great: a narrow loss to Loyola Marymount and a 14 point drubbing by Northwestern. We'll learn a lot more about this team when Big East play begins, because they open with a brutal stretch. They play at UConn, vs West Virginia, at Cincinnati, vs Syracuse and at Villanova all before the end of January. If they can escape the month of January with a 4-4 Big East record then they'll be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. As for UCLA, I'm continuing my .500 watch, to see when/if the Bruins can get back to .500. They are now 3-7 with two relatively easy home games before Pac-10 play begins. Even if they take care of business in those two games they will need to go at least 12-6 in Pac-10 play to have a shot at an at-large bid. If there's one good thing going on with the Bruins program it's the development of some of the young players. I think Malcolm Lee is going to have to start leading this team, because in the times I've watched UCLA this season he's looked like their best player. It's hard for a sophomore to take a leadership role on a team with three senior starters, but Ben Howland is going to have to help him take that next step. The Bruins have to be focused on the future, because this season is basically lost.
W-12 BP65
Twelve weeks to Selection Sunday:
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. Texas
2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia
3. Tennessee
3. Michigan State
3. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Clemson
4. Georgetown
4. California
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Ohio State
5. UConn
5. Minnesota
6. Texas A&M
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
6. Florida
7. Mississippi State
7. Louisville
7. Wisconsin
7. Arizona State
8. Vanderbilt
8. Maryland
8. Wake Forest
8. Kansas State
9. Missouri
9. BYU
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Cincinnati
10. UNLV
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Mississippi
11. Baylor
11. Xavier
11. Oklahoma
11. Illinois
12. Oklahoma State
12. Miami (Fl)
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, NC State, Richmond, Rhode Island, Temple, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Michigan, Northwestern, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Tulsa, Missouri State, Wichita State, San Diego State, Washington State, South Carolina, Saint Mary's
Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Notre Dame, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, William & Mary, UAB, Southern Miss, UTEP, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Bradley, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Utah, Arizona, Alabama, LSU, Portland, Louisiana Tech, Nevada
Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Duquesne, George Washington, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Indiana, Colorado, Pacific, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Central Florida, Marshall, Loyola-Chicago, Harvard, Iona, Niagara, Ohio, Creighton, Indiana State, Colorado State, TCU, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Stanford, Auburn, Georgia, San Diego, Idaho
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. Texas
2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia
3. Tennessee
3. Michigan State
3. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Clemson
4. Georgetown
4. California
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Ohio State
5. UConn
5. Minnesota
6. Texas A&M
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
6. Florida
7. Mississippi State
7. Louisville
7. Wisconsin
7. Arizona State
8. Vanderbilt
8. Maryland
8. Wake Forest
8. Kansas State
9. Missouri
9. BYU
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Cincinnati
10. UNLV
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Mississippi
11. Baylor
11. Xavier
11. Oklahoma
11. Illinois
12. Oklahoma State
12. Miami (Fl)
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, NC State, Richmond, Rhode Island, Temple, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Michigan, Northwestern, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Tulsa, Missouri State, Wichita State, San Diego State, Washington State, South Carolina, Saint Mary's
Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Notre Dame, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, William & Mary, UAB, Southern Miss, UTEP, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Bradley, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Utah, Arizona, Alabama, LSU, Portland, Louisiana Tech, Nevada
Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Duquesne, George Washington, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Indiana, Colorado, Pacific, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Central Florida, Marshall, Loyola-Chicago, Harvard, Iona, Niagara, Ohio, Creighton, Indiana State, Colorado State, TCU, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Stanford, Auburn, Georgia, San Diego, Idaho
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Looking Ahead To Saturday Afternoon
Despite the slow week to this point, there are a lot of good games today. Here is a quick heads up on some of the key games that I'll be paying attention to this afternoon (all times eastern time):
Noon: Michigan at #1 Kansas - On paper this seems like a blowout, but let's recall the two big upsets that Michigan pulled last year despite not being any better than they are this year. And Kansas has to be softened up because they've played a joke of a schedule (Sagarin rates their schedule 296th thus far). This might actually be their toughest opponent so far. Kansas is the best team in the country and is far better than Michigan, so this could be a blowout, but don't be shocked to see Michigan play this game close.
2PM: #10 North Carolina at #2 Texas - I don't need to explain this one. For North Carolina, they struggle most against teams with good backcourts, and Texas has one. For Texas, they've played a pretty soft schedule. They've played only one team in my most recent BP65, and that's Long Beach State. We'll see if UNC's tougher schedule has toughened them up for a game like this.
2PM: Xavier at #17 Butler - An important game for both teams. There is a huge logjam at the top of the Atlantic Ten, and not all of those teams can make the NCAA Tournament, so it's important for a team like Xavier to get separation from teams like Temple and Rhode Island. They can do that with conference wins, but also with big out-of-conference wins like Butler. As for Butler, every game like this matters. They won't see a team as good as Xavier during their entire conference regular season, and they need to prove that the win over the Evan Turner-less Ohio State Buckeyes was not a fluke.
4PM: #15 Gonzaga at #7 Duke - Again, I don't need to explain this one. A win here along with a loss by UNC might make Duke the new favorite to win the ACC. Gonzaga, of course, is in the same position as Butler: they've got to keep winning games over big teams before they get into conference play.
4PM: Western Kentucky at Louisville - Louisville has had two mediocre losses so far this season, but they also had two mediocre losses early last season before getting to #1 in the country. Pitino often has his teams start slow and finish strong. But if they can't take care of business against a dangerous Western Kentucky team then they will start falling so far behind the pace of the top Big East teams that they might never catch up.
6PM: Memphis at UMass - Memphis is a big question mark right now. They haven't beaten anybody good yet, but that's mostly been because of a soft schedule. And the computer think that they're better than they've been playing: Sagarin's ELO_CHESS puts them 53rd and his PREDICTOR puts them 13th, and Pomeroy has them 7th. If they're really that good then they'll take care of a UMass team that has struggled since Travis Ford left.
Noon: Michigan at #1 Kansas - On paper this seems like a blowout, but let's recall the two big upsets that Michigan pulled last year despite not being any better than they are this year. And Kansas has to be softened up because they've played a joke of a schedule (Sagarin rates their schedule 296th thus far). This might actually be their toughest opponent so far. Kansas is the best team in the country and is far better than Michigan, so this could be a blowout, but don't be shocked to see Michigan play this game close.
2PM: #10 North Carolina at #2 Texas - I don't need to explain this one. For North Carolina, they struggle most against teams with good backcourts, and Texas has one. For Texas, they've played a pretty soft schedule. They've played only one team in my most recent BP65, and that's Long Beach State. We'll see if UNC's tougher schedule has toughened them up for a game like this.
2PM: Xavier at #17 Butler - An important game for both teams. There is a huge logjam at the top of the Atlantic Ten, and not all of those teams can make the NCAA Tournament, so it's important for a team like Xavier to get separation from teams like Temple and Rhode Island. They can do that with conference wins, but also with big out-of-conference wins like Butler. As for Butler, every game like this matters. They won't see a team as good as Xavier during their entire conference regular season, and they need to prove that the win over the Evan Turner-less Ohio State Buckeyes was not a fluke.
4PM: #15 Gonzaga at #7 Duke - Again, I don't need to explain this one. A win here along with a loss by UNC might make Duke the new favorite to win the ACC. Gonzaga, of course, is in the same position as Butler: they've got to keep winning games over big teams before they get into conference play.
4PM: Western Kentucky at Louisville - Louisville has had two mediocre losses so far this season, but they also had two mediocre losses early last season before getting to #1 in the country. Pitino often has his teams start slow and finish strong. But if they can't take care of business against a dangerous Western Kentucky team then they will start falling so far behind the pace of the top Big East teams that they might never catch up.
6PM: Memphis at UMass - Memphis is a big question mark right now. They haven't beaten anybody good yet, but that's mostly been because of a soft schedule. And the computer think that they're better than they've been playing: Sagarin's ELO_CHESS puts them 53rd and his PREDICTOR puts them 13th, and Pomeroy has them 7th. If they're really that good then they'll take care of a UMass team that has struggled since Travis Ford left.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Cincinnati Loses Again
UAB 64, Cincinnati 47
Neither team shot well in this game, with both teams hitting lower than 40% from the field and 25% behind the arc. UAB is probably a bit underrated this year because their key contributors were not big recruits. Instead, they have been powered by a pair of transfers: Elijah Mills from Louisiana Lafayette, and Jamarr Sanders from Alabama State. Mills led all scorers with 22 points in this game, and both had double digits in rebounds. Mike Davis still has to do a better job of building his program through high school recruiting, because it's not sustainable to keep relying on transfers with only one or two years of eligibility, but he's got a nice squad for the time being. Conference USA is still pretty wide open, so there's no reason that UAB can't compete near the top. As for Cincinnati, obviously they didn't play as badly as the final scorer indicated - it was just one of those days when they couldn't get a shot to fall. But the problem that I see is that Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson weren't able to carry this team at all. When the shots aren't falling, you've got to have players who can get to the rim and create easy buckets and free throws, and neither player did that. The two combined for 15 points and 7 rebounds. Deonta Vaughn seemed content to launch threes, so the only player who showed any offensive life at all was Dion Dixon off the bench. It's disconcerting that Yancy Gates still hasn't developed into a player who can carry his team on his back to a victory over a quality opponent. The Bearcats have now lost two straight games against mid-majors and fall to 6-3 overall. One thing they've got going for them is an easy start to their Big East schedule. Other than an opener against UConn, they've got a schedule full of the likes of Rutgers and South Florida for the first month or so. Of course, they end their regular season at West Virginia, vs Villanova and then at Georgetown, so they'd better have their NCAA Tournament bid wrapped up before then.
South Carolina 76, Richmond 58
This game was a lot closer than the final score suggests, as these two teams were actually tied with about eight minutes left in the second half. Devan Downey got to the basket at will and led all players with 18 points, but he didn't do a good job of creating for others. In fact, neither team had more than eight assists. South Carolina won by dominating the boards and creating easy baskets that way (20 offensive rebounds for them compared to only 18 defensive rebounds for Richmond). Richmond isn't a glamor team, but a victory over them is good for the computer numbers, which are essential for a bubble team like South Carolina. The Gamecocks move to 7-2 with no bad losses, although this is probably their best win. They still play Boston College and Baylor before beginning SEC play, but it's pretty clear that they'll need to get that resume-building win in conference play. They'll get two shots each at Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky, so they've got to win at least one of those. As for Richmond, they didn't play very fundamental basketball here as they passed poorly and clearly struggled to boxout on the boards. They had more than twice as many turnovers as assists. More importantly, they missed an opportunity for what might have been one of their better wins of the year. They still have wins over Mississippi State, Missouri and Old Dominion, but they already have at least one loss to a team that might finish the season out of the RPI Top 100 (William & Mary). They have a chance to get back on track tomorrow against Florida, and that's not their only tough game remaining before Atlantic Ten play begins, but it seems very likely that Richmond will enter A-10 play having to gain ground on teams like Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island and Temple for those at-large bids.
South Florida 69, Central Florida 65
South Florida continues to rack up wins against good (if not great) teams, and now moves to 8-2 overall. They won this game without star Augustus Gilchrist, who is suffering from an ankle sprain. Dominique Jones has been a big scorer since showing up at South Florida, so he can shoulder much of the scoring load, but depth is a bigger problem. They only have an eight man rotation when healthy, and right now they're not healthy. They basically went with a six man rotation in this game. The Big East regular season is brutal, and South Florida is going to need to get healthy and they're going to have to find more production off of their bench if they're going to finish near the middle of the pack in the Big East. Central Florida, meanwhile, is a young team that is still developing. They have no seniors in their regular rotation, and yet have still gotten off to a pretty solid start to the season. This loss drops them to 7-3 with a win over Auburn, but also a loss to Niagara to go with this loss to South Florida. UCF appears to be a program on the rise, but they've got a lot of learning to do, and are not as good as Memphis, Tulsa or even UAB right now in Conference USA.
Neither team shot well in this game, with both teams hitting lower than 40% from the field and 25% behind the arc. UAB is probably a bit underrated this year because their key contributors were not big recruits. Instead, they have been powered by a pair of transfers: Elijah Mills from Louisiana Lafayette, and Jamarr Sanders from Alabama State. Mills led all scorers with 22 points in this game, and both had double digits in rebounds. Mike Davis still has to do a better job of building his program through high school recruiting, because it's not sustainable to keep relying on transfers with only one or two years of eligibility, but he's got a nice squad for the time being. Conference USA is still pretty wide open, so there's no reason that UAB can't compete near the top. As for Cincinnati, obviously they didn't play as badly as the final scorer indicated - it was just one of those days when they couldn't get a shot to fall. But the problem that I see is that Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson weren't able to carry this team at all. When the shots aren't falling, you've got to have players who can get to the rim and create easy buckets and free throws, and neither player did that. The two combined for 15 points and 7 rebounds. Deonta Vaughn seemed content to launch threes, so the only player who showed any offensive life at all was Dion Dixon off the bench. It's disconcerting that Yancy Gates still hasn't developed into a player who can carry his team on his back to a victory over a quality opponent. The Bearcats have now lost two straight games against mid-majors and fall to 6-3 overall. One thing they've got going for them is an easy start to their Big East schedule. Other than an opener against UConn, they've got a schedule full of the likes of Rutgers and South Florida for the first month or so. Of course, they end their regular season at West Virginia, vs Villanova and then at Georgetown, so they'd better have their NCAA Tournament bid wrapped up before then.
South Carolina 76, Richmond 58
This game was a lot closer than the final score suggests, as these two teams were actually tied with about eight minutes left in the second half. Devan Downey got to the basket at will and led all players with 18 points, but he didn't do a good job of creating for others. In fact, neither team had more than eight assists. South Carolina won by dominating the boards and creating easy baskets that way (20 offensive rebounds for them compared to only 18 defensive rebounds for Richmond). Richmond isn't a glamor team, but a victory over them is good for the computer numbers, which are essential for a bubble team like South Carolina. The Gamecocks move to 7-2 with no bad losses, although this is probably their best win. They still play Boston College and Baylor before beginning SEC play, but it's pretty clear that they'll need to get that resume-building win in conference play. They'll get two shots each at Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky, so they've got to win at least one of those. As for Richmond, they didn't play very fundamental basketball here as they passed poorly and clearly struggled to boxout on the boards. They had more than twice as many turnovers as assists. More importantly, they missed an opportunity for what might have been one of their better wins of the year. They still have wins over Mississippi State, Missouri and Old Dominion, but they already have at least one loss to a team that might finish the season out of the RPI Top 100 (William & Mary). They have a chance to get back on track tomorrow against Florida, and that's not their only tough game remaining before Atlantic Ten play begins, but it seems very likely that Richmond will enter A-10 play having to gain ground on teams like Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island and Temple for those at-large bids.
South Florida 69, Central Florida 65
South Florida continues to rack up wins against good (if not great) teams, and now moves to 8-2 overall. They won this game without star Augustus Gilchrist, who is suffering from an ankle sprain. Dominique Jones has been a big scorer since showing up at South Florida, so he can shoulder much of the scoring load, but depth is a bigger problem. They only have an eight man rotation when healthy, and right now they're not healthy. They basically went with a six man rotation in this game. The Big East regular season is brutal, and South Florida is going to need to get healthy and they're going to have to find more production off of their bench if they're going to finish near the middle of the pack in the Big East. Central Florida, meanwhile, is a young team that is still developing. They have no seniors in their regular rotation, and yet have still gotten off to a pretty solid start to the season. This loss drops them to 7-3 with a win over Auburn, but also a loss to Niagara to go with this loss to South Florida. UCF appears to be a program on the rise, but they've got a lot of learning to do, and are not as good as Memphis, Tulsa or even UAB right now in Conference USA.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Three Big Atlantic Ten Wins
Temple 75, #3 Villanova 65
I've been meaning to get around to these three Atlantic Ten games from Sunday and just haven't, but it's important to realize two things about this conference. First of all, it's a quality conference: Sagarin has them ranked 6th overall, and they are actually 5th in average RPI. So it seems like a conference that should get multiple Tournament teams. The problem is, there's a huge logjam at the top. There are a number of teams that will have to differentiate themselves in conference play. Temple won this particular game by outshooting Villanova behind the arc (50% vs 33%). Nova lives and dies by the three, so if you outshoot them there you've got a great shot to beat them. But that said, Temple is the first team to beat them, and they were ranked 3rd in the nation coming in, so you don't want to underweight this win. Temple is now 8-2 with wins over Penn State, Virginia Tech, Siena and now Villanova. Their two losses came to Georgetown and St. John's. So far that's a Tournament resume, but they'll have to prove it in Atlantic Ten play. They can't afford anything worse than a 10-6 A-10 record. As for Villanova, I still think they're the favorites to win the Big East, but they're a weak favorite. They are very close in overall talent to West Virginia, Georgetown and Syracuse, and you can't totally ignore UConn either. Villanova's playing style makes it impossible to win every game - some nights their shots won't fall, and they'll lose - so they need a heavily contested conference. I don't see them going 16-2 in the Big East, but I could easily see them going 14-4.
Xavier 83, #19 Cincinnati 79, 2OT
The best game of the day is also a sign that Xavier may not be the team we thought they were. They lost a great coach in Sean Miller, they lost some key recruits because of that coaching transition, and looked to be on their way to a down year early on. They lost two of three games at the Old Spice Classic, and also got rocked at Kansas State just five days before this game. But something seemed to click in this intense rivalry game. The Musketeers finally started to look like a team comfortable with itself. One win over Cincinnati does not a season make, but it's a good start. They head to Butler on Saturday afternoon, and then play Miami of Ohio and LSU before heading to Wake Forest. It's a tough schedule, but it will prepare Xavier well for Atlantic Ten regular season play. Small conference teams can only play their way out of the NCAA Tournament in conference play, but the A-10 is good enough that Xavier can play their way into the Dance, despite their slow start. Cincy, meanwhile, can't feel too bad about this loss. They were playing a good team desperate for a win, it was a rivalry game, and the crowd was really into it. Lance Stephenson showed a bit of the good and bad here, playing 42 minutes and dropping 20+ points for the first time all season, but also showing a little bit of that immaturity that caused a bunch of top programs to lay off him. The key task for Mick Cronin is obviously keeping Stephenson in line and working together with his teammates the rest of the season.
Rhode Island 80, Boston College 69
Of the three A-10 wins Sunday night, this was probably the least surprising, although it was probably the least deserved in terms of play on the floor. Rhode Island shot the lights out of the building (50% from the field, 60% behind the arc) while Boston College shot poorly behind the arc (18%). Boston College dominated the boards, but it wasn't enough with that shooting performance. The Eagles now fall to 6-4 with wins over Providence and Michigan, and losses to St. Joe's, Harvard, Northern Iowa and Rhode Island. Obviously they have a chance to make up for that in ACC play, but I don't see it happening. This is a rebuilding year for them. Rhode Island now moves to 8-1, but you can argue that this is their best win. Their out-of-conference schedule wasn't great, though good enough to keep the computer numbers decent. Still, without any Top 25 victories they're going to need to rack up a good overall record. They probably can't finish worse than 11-5 in the A-10 while still earning an at-large bid.
I've been meaning to get around to these three Atlantic Ten games from Sunday and just haven't, but it's important to realize two things about this conference. First of all, it's a quality conference: Sagarin has them ranked 6th overall, and they are actually 5th in average RPI. So it seems like a conference that should get multiple Tournament teams. The problem is, there's a huge logjam at the top. There are a number of teams that will have to differentiate themselves in conference play. Temple won this particular game by outshooting Villanova behind the arc (50% vs 33%). Nova lives and dies by the three, so if you outshoot them there you've got a great shot to beat them. But that said, Temple is the first team to beat them, and they were ranked 3rd in the nation coming in, so you don't want to underweight this win. Temple is now 8-2 with wins over Penn State, Virginia Tech, Siena and now Villanova. Their two losses came to Georgetown and St. John's. So far that's a Tournament resume, but they'll have to prove it in Atlantic Ten play. They can't afford anything worse than a 10-6 A-10 record. As for Villanova, I still think they're the favorites to win the Big East, but they're a weak favorite. They are very close in overall talent to West Virginia, Georgetown and Syracuse, and you can't totally ignore UConn either. Villanova's playing style makes it impossible to win every game - some nights their shots won't fall, and they'll lose - so they need a heavily contested conference. I don't see them going 16-2 in the Big East, but I could easily see them going 14-4.
Xavier 83, #19 Cincinnati 79, 2OT
The best game of the day is also a sign that Xavier may not be the team we thought they were. They lost a great coach in Sean Miller, they lost some key recruits because of that coaching transition, and looked to be on their way to a down year early on. They lost two of three games at the Old Spice Classic, and also got rocked at Kansas State just five days before this game. But something seemed to click in this intense rivalry game. The Musketeers finally started to look like a team comfortable with itself. One win over Cincinnati does not a season make, but it's a good start. They head to Butler on Saturday afternoon, and then play Miami of Ohio and LSU before heading to Wake Forest. It's a tough schedule, but it will prepare Xavier well for Atlantic Ten regular season play. Small conference teams can only play their way out of the NCAA Tournament in conference play, but the A-10 is good enough that Xavier can play their way into the Dance, despite their slow start. Cincy, meanwhile, can't feel too bad about this loss. They were playing a good team desperate for a win, it was a rivalry game, and the crowd was really into it. Lance Stephenson showed a bit of the good and bad here, playing 42 minutes and dropping 20+ points for the first time all season, but also showing a little bit of that immaturity that caused a bunch of top programs to lay off him. The key task for Mick Cronin is obviously keeping Stephenson in line and working together with his teammates the rest of the season.
Rhode Island 80, Boston College 69
Of the three A-10 wins Sunday night, this was probably the least surprising, although it was probably the least deserved in terms of play on the floor. Rhode Island shot the lights out of the building (50% from the field, 60% behind the arc) while Boston College shot poorly behind the arc (18%). Boston College dominated the boards, but it wasn't enough with that shooting performance. The Eagles now fall to 6-4 with wins over Providence and Michigan, and losses to St. Joe's, Harvard, Northern Iowa and Rhode Island. Obviously they have a chance to make up for that in ACC play, but I don't see it happening. This is a rebuilding year for them. Rhode Island now moves to 8-1, but you can argue that this is their best win. Their out-of-conference schedule wasn't great, though good enough to keep the computer numbers decent. Still, without any Top 25 victories they're going to need to rack up a good overall record. They probably can't finish worse than 11-5 in the A-10 while still earning an at-large bid.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
It's That Time Of Year
While some schools take the "student" part of student-athlete more seriously than others, most kids are spending this time of the year taking final exams. So we're in that purgatory between the great early season tournaments and regular season conference play. It's a bit of a down time in the college basketball season.
That said, there are still some good games coming up this weekend. And I do still want to talk about those three good wins by Atlantic Ten teams on Sunday. So there will be plenty to talk about.
There's not much going on tonight: I expect Saint Mary's to easily dispatch of Portland State, and it's almost gotten depressing trying to follow UCLA (they play New Mexico State).
There are a couple of interesting games tomorrow: I'd put Central Florida vs South Florida at the top, because those are two teams off to good starts that have yet to prove much against good competition. One of those teams is going to be feeling really good about itself after a win tomorrow night. East Carolina could potentially cause troubles for Clemson at home. UTEP could potentially throw its hat into the at-large discussions if they can win at an overrated Ole Miss team. And Richmond vs South Carolina is one other match-up between potential bubble teams.
It doesn't quite compare with Texas/UNC or Gonzaga/Duke on Saturday, but it's enough to get us through the week.
That said, there are still some good games coming up this weekend. And I do still want to talk about those three good wins by Atlantic Ten teams on Sunday. So there will be plenty to talk about.
There's not much going on tonight: I expect Saint Mary's to easily dispatch of Portland State, and it's almost gotten depressing trying to follow UCLA (they play New Mexico State).
There are a couple of interesting games tomorrow: I'd put Central Florida vs South Florida at the top, because those are two teams off to good starts that have yet to prove much against good competition. One of those teams is going to be feeling really good about itself after a win tomorrow night. East Carolina could potentially cause troubles for Clemson at home. UTEP could potentially throw its hat into the at-large discussions if they can win at an overrated Ole Miss team. And Richmond vs South Carolina is one other match-up between potential bubble teams.
It doesn't quite compare with Texas/UNC or Gonzaga/Duke on Saturday, but it's enough to get us through the week.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
W-13 BP65
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Texas
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia
3. Tennessee
3. Michigan State
3. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. Clemson
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Georgetown
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Ohio State
5. California
5. UConn
5. Minnesota
6. Texas A&M
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Vanderbilt
6. Florida
7. Louisville
7. Maryland
7. Wisconsin
7. Wake Forest
8. New Mexico (MWC)
8. Arizona State
8. Mississippi State
8. Missouri
9. BYU
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Kansas State
9. Cincinnati
10. UNLV
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Oklahoma
11. Illinois
11. Baylor
11. Mississippi
11. Michigan
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Oklahoma State
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
12. Xavier
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), NC State, Rhode Island, Temple, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Missouri State, San Diego State, Arizona, Washington State, South Carolina, Portland, Saint Mary's
Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Notre Dame, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Old Dominion, William & Mary, UAB, UTEP, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Bradley, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Utah, UCLA, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Louisiana Tech, Nevada
Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Charlotte, Duquesne, George Washington, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Indiana, Colorado, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Central Florida, Southern Miss, Loyola-Chicago, Harvard, Iona, Niagara, Ohio, Western Michigan, Creighton, Indiana State, TCU, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Stanford, Georgia, San Diego, Idaho
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Texas
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia
3. Tennessee
3. Michigan State
3. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. Clemson
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Georgetown
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Ohio State
5. California
5. UConn
5. Minnesota
6. Texas A&M
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Vanderbilt
6. Florida
7. Louisville
7. Maryland
7. Wisconsin
7. Wake Forest
8. New Mexico (MWC)
8. Arizona State
8. Mississippi State
8. Missouri
9. BYU
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Kansas State
9. Cincinnati
10. UNLV
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Oklahoma
11. Illinois
11. Baylor
11. Mississippi
11. Michigan
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Oklahoma State
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
12. Xavier
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), NC State, Rhode Island, Temple, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Missouri State, San Diego State, Arizona, Washington State, South Carolina, Portland, Saint Mary's
Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Notre Dame, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Old Dominion, William & Mary, UAB, UTEP, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Bradley, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Utah, UCLA, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Louisiana Tech, Nevada
Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Charlotte, Duquesne, George Washington, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Indiana, Colorado, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Central Florida, Southern Miss, Loyola-Chicago, Harvard, Iona, Niagara, Ohio, Western Michigan, Creighton, Indiana State, TCU, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Stanford, Georgia, San Diego, Idaho
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Pay Attention To New Mexico
New Mexico 84, #18 Texas A&M 81
You have to wonder what Iowa fans are thinking as they see how much success Steve Alford has had in just his third year at New Mexico since being run out of town in Iowa City. New Mexico is now 10-0 with a win over California to go with this one. They are in the Top 30 in the Sagarin, Pomeroy and RPI rankings. The top of the Mountain West is going to be very close between New Mexico, BYU, UNLV and San Diego State, but the Lobos might just be the favorites. As for Texas A&M, this loss is a missed opportunity, but not a bad loss. Their other loss came against West Virginia, to go with wins over Minnesota and Clemson. And they still get to play Washington in a week and a half, with a chance to really put together a good out-of-conference resume. They are still in an excellent position to make the NCAA Tournament.
#23 Wisconsin 72, Marquette 63
Wisconsin bounced back nicely from that loss to UW-Green Bay with a quality win here. Jon Leuer has really turned into a big time scorer, and with Trevon Huges forms one of the better inside-outside duos in the nation. Wisconsin continues to struggle with teams that are quick and long, which is why I don't see them competing with the likes of Purdue atop the Big Ten. But right now they're probably the fifth best team in the Big Ten, and could potentially finish as high as third if Evan Turner stays injured long enough. As for Marquette, an interesting new young player is Darius Johnson-Odom, who is shooting an amazing 55% (21-for-38) from behind the arc this season. This team can put up points in a hurry when they can turn the speed of a game up. But the fact that they are so small is going to make it really difficult for them to play with some of the really big frontlines in the Big East. They will likely be on the bubble all season long.
Kansas State 95, #17 UNLV 80
Kansas State might not play this well again all season, as they basically shot the lights out of the building in Las Vegas. They hit 57% from the field, including 61% (14-for-23) behind the arc. Jacob Pullen was particularly impressive with 28 points, including 7-for-10 from behind the arc. This is Kansas State's best win of the season, but they also have wins over Dayton, Xavier and Washington State. Their one loss was to Mississippi. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate Kansas State as the third best team in the Big 12 - that might be overdoing it a little bit, but they certainly look like a Tournament team right now. As for UNLV, this is their first loss of the season, and it goes with wins over Louisville, Arizona, Nevada and Southern Illinois. Assuming they avoid any bad losses before conference play begins, UNLV probably only needs to finish second or third in the Mountain West to earn an at-large bid.
You have to wonder what Iowa fans are thinking as they see how much success Steve Alford has had in just his third year at New Mexico since being run out of town in Iowa City. New Mexico is now 10-0 with a win over California to go with this one. They are in the Top 30 in the Sagarin, Pomeroy and RPI rankings. The top of the Mountain West is going to be very close between New Mexico, BYU, UNLV and San Diego State, but the Lobos might just be the favorites. As for Texas A&M, this loss is a missed opportunity, but not a bad loss. Their other loss came against West Virginia, to go with wins over Minnesota and Clemson. And they still get to play Washington in a week and a half, with a chance to really put together a good out-of-conference resume. They are still in an excellent position to make the NCAA Tournament.
#23 Wisconsin 72, Marquette 63
Wisconsin bounced back nicely from that loss to UW-Green Bay with a quality win here. Jon Leuer has really turned into a big time scorer, and with Trevon Huges forms one of the better inside-outside duos in the nation. Wisconsin continues to struggle with teams that are quick and long, which is why I don't see them competing with the likes of Purdue atop the Big Ten. But right now they're probably the fifth best team in the Big Ten, and could potentially finish as high as third if Evan Turner stays injured long enough. As for Marquette, an interesting new young player is Darius Johnson-Odom, who is shooting an amazing 55% (21-for-38) from behind the arc this season. This team can put up points in a hurry when they can turn the speed of a game up. But the fact that they are so small is going to make it really difficult for them to play with some of the really big frontlines in the Big East. They will likely be on the bubble all season long.
Kansas State 95, #17 UNLV 80
Kansas State might not play this well again all season, as they basically shot the lights out of the building in Las Vegas. They hit 57% from the field, including 61% (14-for-23) behind the arc. Jacob Pullen was particularly impressive with 28 points, including 7-for-10 from behind the arc. This is Kansas State's best win of the season, but they also have wins over Dayton, Xavier and Washington State. Their one loss was to Mississippi. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate Kansas State as the third best team in the Big 12 - that might be overdoing it a little bit, but they certainly look like a Tournament team right now. As for UNLV, this is their first loss of the season, and it goes with wins over Louisville, Arizona, Nevada and Southern Illinois. Assuming they avoid any bad losses before conference play begins, UNLV probably only needs to finish second or third in the Mountain West to earn an at-large bid.
Butler Gets Important Win Vs Ohio State
#20 Butler 74, #15 Ohio State 66
It's impossible to overstate how important this game was for Butler. This was almost definitely their last chance at a Top 25 victory this season. And if they were ever going to have a good chance at beating a team as good as Ohio State it would be in this game: not only was Ohio State missing Evan Turner (who had been the leading candidate for National Player of the Year before his injury), but it was their first game without him. The Buckeyes got off to a very sluggish start here, and you had to figure it would taken them a while to get used to playing without Turner. The Buckeyes did get positive offensive play from William Buford and Jeremie Simmons, so those two should pick up a lot of the scoring slack. A disappointment here was Dallas Lauderdale, who should have slaughtered a small team like Butler. Matt Howard had more points and rebounds than Lauderdale, and played on the floor for 30 minutes before he fouled out (that last number is actually good, considering how quickly Howard had fouled out against other big frontcourts this season - it's the first time all season he's played 30 minutes in a game). Ohio State is still going to be a good team without Turner, but it's hard to see them competing for a Big Ten title now. As for Butler, this now ends their really difficult games, and now it's about grinding out game after game. The fact that this is their only good win means that they can probably only afford two or three conference losses or they risk actually falling to the Tournament bubble. For the time being they're probably somewhere in the 4-8 seed range.
#13 Georgetown 74, #16 Washington 66
The final score doesn't at all give a sense of how big of a domination this was by Georgetown. The Hoyas were up by 20 with under 6:30 left in the game before the Huskies made a run near the end of the game to close up the score. The Hoyas had all five starters in double digits, but I was most impressed with Julian Vaughn, who has really improved since last season. He and Greg Monroe make a great inside duo that will be able to battle in the paint with any of the big frontlines in the Big East. They'll be one of the few teams that can bang with a team like UConn or Syracuse. Georgetown has been under the radar this season, but assuming they can avoid a really big upset they will soon be in the Top 10. We have to start considering them not only a potential Big East champion, but a potential Final Four team. As for Washington, it's clear that Quincy Pondexter is going to be one of the top post players in the Pac-10, and Isaiah Thomas is very good on the perimeter, but the rest of the team played badly here. Venoy Overton didn't show up today, and I've been particularly disappointed by Abdul Gaddy. Remember that just a few months ago there were people arguing that the best point guard recruit in the nation was Gaddy, not John Wall. Gaddy has 5.3 points and 2.6 assists per game. He is going to have to improve for Washington to be one of the best teams in the nation. Although as mediocre as Washington has played the last couple of weeks, they are still by far the best team in the Pac-10.
Mississippi State 72, UCLA 54
UCLA didn't just lose this game, they were slaughtered. They were down by 21 points at halftime. I know this was a "neutral" court game, but it was in Anaheim and John Wooden was in the audience - it was basically a home game. Believe it or not, UCLA has now lost five straight games to fall to 2-6. And things don't get much easier with New Mexico State and Notre Dame still ahead later this month. As weak as the Pac-10 is this season, it's still possible that UCLA will finish this entire season below .500. As for Mississippi State, Jarvis Varnado continued his act as the Human Vacuum Cleaner, but I'm particularly impressed by Ravern Johnson. Johnson has scored ten or more points in all games but one this season, and had 29 points on 12-for-15 shooting here. What I like about him is that he is an outstanding outside shooter, but he's also long enough to get to the rim and score inside. Mississippi State doesn't need a lot of offense to win games with Varnado inside. I think the Bulldogs are back to being the favorites to win the SEC West, even if Renardo Sidney never plays a game for them.
It's impossible to overstate how important this game was for Butler. This was almost definitely their last chance at a Top 25 victory this season. And if they were ever going to have a good chance at beating a team as good as Ohio State it would be in this game: not only was Ohio State missing Evan Turner (who had been the leading candidate for National Player of the Year before his injury), but it was their first game without him. The Buckeyes got off to a very sluggish start here, and you had to figure it would taken them a while to get used to playing without Turner. The Buckeyes did get positive offensive play from William Buford and Jeremie Simmons, so those two should pick up a lot of the scoring slack. A disappointment here was Dallas Lauderdale, who should have slaughtered a small team like Butler. Matt Howard had more points and rebounds than Lauderdale, and played on the floor for 30 minutes before he fouled out (that last number is actually good, considering how quickly Howard had fouled out against other big frontcourts this season - it's the first time all season he's played 30 minutes in a game). Ohio State is still going to be a good team without Turner, but it's hard to see them competing for a Big Ten title now. As for Butler, this now ends their really difficult games, and now it's about grinding out game after game. The fact that this is their only good win means that they can probably only afford two or three conference losses or they risk actually falling to the Tournament bubble. For the time being they're probably somewhere in the 4-8 seed range.
#13 Georgetown 74, #16 Washington 66
The final score doesn't at all give a sense of how big of a domination this was by Georgetown. The Hoyas were up by 20 with under 6:30 left in the game before the Huskies made a run near the end of the game to close up the score. The Hoyas had all five starters in double digits, but I was most impressed with Julian Vaughn, who has really improved since last season. He and Greg Monroe make a great inside duo that will be able to battle in the paint with any of the big frontlines in the Big East. They'll be one of the few teams that can bang with a team like UConn or Syracuse. Georgetown has been under the radar this season, but assuming they can avoid a really big upset they will soon be in the Top 10. We have to start considering them not only a potential Big East champion, but a potential Final Four team. As for Washington, it's clear that Quincy Pondexter is going to be one of the top post players in the Pac-10, and Isaiah Thomas is very good on the perimeter, but the rest of the team played badly here. Venoy Overton didn't show up today, and I've been particularly disappointed by Abdul Gaddy. Remember that just a few months ago there were people arguing that the best point guard recruit in the nation was Gaddy, not John Wall. Gaddy has 5.3 points and 2.6 assists per game. He is going to have to improve for Washington to be one of the best teams in the nation. Although as mediocre as Washington has played the last couple of weeks, they are still by far the best team in the Pac-10.
Mississippi State 72, UCLA 54
UCLA didn't just lose this game, they were slaughtered. They were down by 21 points at halftime. I know this was a "neutral" court game, but it was in Anaheim and John Wooden was in the audience - it was basically a home game. Believe it or not, UCLA has now lost five straight games to fall to 2-6. And things don't get much easier with New Mexico State and Notre Dame still ahead later this month. As weak as the Pac-10 is this season, it's still possible that UCLA will finish this entire season below .500. As for Mississippi State, Jarvis Varnado continued his act as the Human Vacuum Cleaner, but I'm particularly impressed by Ravern Johnson. Johnson has scored ten or more points in all games but one this season, and had 29 points on 12-for-15 shooting here. What I like about him is that he is an outstanding outside shooter, but he's also long enough to get to the rim and score inside. Mississippi State doesn't need a lot of offense to win games with Varnado inside. I think the Bulldogs are back to being the favorites to win the SEC West, even if Renardo Sidney never plays a game for them.
Kentucky Beats UConn
#4 Kentucky 64, #12 Connecticut 61
John Wall continues to become a household name. I'm sure you've noticed people who don't talk about college basketball very often talking about how they sas this John Wall kid play for Kentucky. The Wildcats continue to be a bit streaky, which explains why they've struggled to beat some bad teams at the same time that they've handled elite teams, but that will improve as they mature. As for UConn, they once again needed a three-point shooter late in the game and had nobody to turn to. I can't remember ever seeing a team that had zero players who can confidently hit a three. They have a great set of athletes, and no team in the nation has a more menacing set of paint defenders, but it's hard to see UConn ever overcoming a late deficit without anybody who can step out and shoot a three.
#6 Syracuse 85, #11 Florida 73
Wesley Johnson is starting to get his name bounced around as an All-America candidate, and it's hard to disagree. Syracuse is off to a great start, and it's entirely because of Johnson's outstanding all around play. He was one of three Syracuse players to go for a double-double against a somewhat outmanned Florida team. Florida's big men couldn't score, rebound or defend against the Syracuse big men, and it was only because Florida guards won the perimeter battle that this game was even remotely close. I still think Florida is the third best team in the SEC, but that ranking of 11th was a bit much. They're not quite that good. Syracuse is now 9-0 with three cupcakes before Big East play begins. They have to be considered a contender at the top with Villanova, West Virginia and Georgetown.
Mississippi State 76, DePaul 45
This was a little bit of a reality check for an overachieving DePaul team. As long as Mac Koshwal is out with a foot injury, it's hard to see DePaul beating anybody good. They appear to be a little bit better than last season, but will still struggle to finish better than 14th or so in the Big East. Mississippi State continues to wait on the Renardo Sidney situation, but they've righted the ship a bit after really stumbling out of the gate this season. They're now 6-2 with no good wins (this DePaul win is the best they've had), and two not-so-great losses (Richmond and Rider). It's not a good out-of-conference resume so far, but they've got plenty of opportunities left. They benefit from 10 of their 16 SEC games being against the awful SEC West, and I think they'll have a great shot to run off a good enough conference record to make the NCAA Tournament. It will take at least a 10-6 record.
John Wall continues to become a household name. I'm sure you've noticed people who don't talk about college basketball very often talking about how they sas this John Wall kid play for Kentucky. The Wildcats continue to be a bit streaky, which explains why they've struggled to beat some bad teams at the same time that they've handled elite teams, but that will improve as they mature. As for UConn, they once again needed a three-point shooter late in the game and had nobody to turn to. I can't remember ever seeing a team that had zero players who can confidently hit a three. They have a great set of athletes, and no team in the nation has a more menacing set of paint defenders, but it's hard to see UConn ever overcoming a late deficit without anybody who can step out and shoot a three.
#6 Syracuse 85, #11 Florida 73
Wesley Johnson is starting to get his name bounced around as an All-America candidate, and it's hard to disagree. Syracuse is off to a great start, and it's entirely because of Johnson's outstanding all around play. He was one of three Syracuse players to go for a double-double against a somewhat outmanned Florida team. Florida's big men couldn't score, rebound or defend against the Syracuse big men, and it was only because Florida guards won the perimeter battle that this game was even remotely close. I still think Florida is the third best team in the SEC, but that ranking of 11th was a bit much. They're not quite that good. Syracuse is now 9-0 with three cupcakes before Big East play begins. They have to be considered a contender at the top with Villanova, West Virginia and Georgetown.
Mississippi State 76, DePaul 45
This was a little bit of a reality check for an overachieving DePaul team. As long as Mac Koshwal is out with a foot injury, it's hard to see DePaul beating anybody good. They appear to be a little bit better than last season, but will still struggle to finish better than 14th or so in the Big East. Mississippi State continues to wait on the Renardo Sidney situation, but they've righted the ship a bit after really stumbling out of the gate this season. They're now 6-2 with no good wins (this DePaul win is the best they've had), and two not-so-great losses (Richmond and Rider). It's not a good out-of-conference resume so far, but they've got plenty of opportunities left. They benefit from 10 of their 16 SEC games being against the awful SEC West, and I think they'll have a great shot to run off a good enough conference record to make the NCAA Tournament. It will take at least a 10-6 record.
First College Basketball Saturday
We've been playing games for about a month now, but this is the first Saturday where college basketball is the dominant sport. College football's regular season is over. There are over 100 games on the slate, and two dozen of them will be on television (not counting some small colleges that have their own channels that can't be viewed off of campus).
There are a lot of great games, from Ohio State-Butler to Georgetown-Washington. Feel free to leave your thoughts throughout the day.
There are a lot of great games, from Ohio State-Butler to Georgetown-Washington. Feel free to leave your thoughts throughout the day.
Vanderbilt Loses Again
Illinois 79, #24 Vanderbilt 68
This result is even more important for Vanderbilt because they followed this up with a loss to Western Kentucky. Their struggles so far this season have nothing to do with injuries, and everything to do with a team just playing sluggish basketball. A.J. Ogilvy and Brad Tinsley appear to have regressed this season, and nobody else has improved. You have to wonder how much of this is coaching, and how much of it is just a couple bad losses snowballing. I still think Vanderbilt will be an NCAA Tournament team, but we've got to downgrade our expectations for this team. It seems like Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky are unquestionably better. The SEC should get four or five Tournament teams, but that doesn't leave a large margin for error. Remember that Vandy has a great home court advantage, and should be able to collect some nice scalps at home this season. Their next tough game will be at home: January 9th against Florida. As for Illinois, this win isn't a huge win, but they do seem to be playing well since that awful first half against Clemson about ten days ago. I think the experience of playing a great half with Demetri McCamey struggling has given a lot of confidence to the other Illini players. McCamey had a good game here, but so did Mike Tisdale. And freshman D.J. Richardson continues to improve, with three straight games in double digits. Illinois never should have been ranked to start the season, but I do still think they'll be a Tournament team.
Indiana 74, Pittsburgh 64
Indiana seemed to play with more energy here, fighting to a draw on the boards despite being smaller, and continually forcing their way to the free throw line. This Indiana season really seems to be shaping up the way that most experts thought it would: they're not good enough to make the Tournament, but they're clearly improved. They could potentially finish as high as 7th in the Big Ten. Pitt, despite playing poorly early this season, does have reinforcements coming. Jermaine Dixon played his first game of the season in this game, and will just need some time to catch back up to game speed. They're also still waiting for Gilbert Brown to return from suspension. They're going to end up with zero good wins out-of-conference, but don't have any particularly bad losses yet, so they can still make the NCAA Tournament if they can play well in the Big East. They will need to go at least 10-8.
Brigham Young 81, Arizona State 68
This was a good win for a Brigham Young team that just plays really quality, fundamental basketball. They had 19 assists on their 25 made field goals, had only 6 turnovers, and shot 92% from the line. By also winning the rebounding battle they ended up with 10 more shots from the field and two more shots from the line. It's hard to lose a game when you get that many more shot attempts. They are now 7-1 with wins over Bradley and Arizona State, and the one loss came at Utah State. They still have to go Fresno State and Nevada, but the real test will be how BYU plays in the Mountain West. As for Arizona State, they got a disappointingly poor performance from Eric Boating. He had been playing really good this season, and the Sun Devils need him to play well to have a good inside presence. Derek Glasser continues to play All Pac-10 quality basketball, but nobody else on the team is helping out. They're now 6-3 with a win over LSU, and no bad losses. It's a mediocre start, but you can say the same thing about every other team in the Pac-10. They open Pac-10 play at UCLA on December 31st.
This result is even more important for Vanderbilt because they followed this up with a loss to Western Kentucky. Their struggles so far this season have nothing to do with injuries, and everything to do with a team just playing sluggish basketball. A.J. Ogilvy and Brad Tinsley appear to have regressed this season, and nobody else has improved. You have to wonder how much of this is coaching, and how much of it is just a couple bad losses snowballing. I still think Vanderbilt will be an NCAA Tournament team, but we've got to downgrade our expectations for this team. It seems like Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky are unquestionably better. The SEC should get four or five Tournament teams, but that doesn't leave a large margin for error. Remember that Vandy has a great home court advantage, and should be able to collect some nice scalps at home this season. Their next tough game will be at home: January 9th against Florida. As for Illinois, this win isn't a huge win, but they do seem to be playing well since that awful first half against Clemson about ten days ago. I think the experience of playing a great half with Demetri McCamey struggling has given a lot of confidence to the other Illini players. McCamey had a good game here, but so did Mike Tisdale. And freshman D.J. Richardson continues to improve, with three straight games in double digits. Illinois never should have been ranked to start the season, but I do still think they'll be a Tournament team.
Indiana 74, Pittsburgh 64
Indiana seemed to play with more energy here, fighting to a draw on the boards despite being smaller, and continually forcing their way to the free throw line. This Indiana season really seems to be shaping up the way that most experts thought it would: they're not good enough to make the Tournament, but they're clearly improved. They could potentially finish as high as 7th in the Big Ten. Pitt, despite playing poorly early this season, does have reinforcements coming. Jermaine Dixon played his first game of the season in this game, and will just need some time to catch back up to game speed. They're also still waiting for Gilbert Brown to return from suspension. They're going to end up with zero good wins out-of-conference, but don't have any particularly bad losses yet, so they can still make the NCAA Tournament if they can play well in the Big East. They will need to go at least 10-8.
Brigham Young 81, Arizona State 68
This was a good win for a Brigham Young team that just plays really quality, fundamental basketball. They had 19 assists on their 25 made field goals, had only 6 turnovers, and shot 92% from the line. By also winning the rebounding battle they ended up with 10 more shots from the field and two more shots from the line. It's hard to lose a game when you get that many more shot attempts. They are now 7-1 with wins over Bradley and Arizona State, and the one loss came at Utah State. They still have to go Fresno State and Nevada, but the real test will be how BYU plays in the Mountain West. As for Arizona State, they got a disappointingly poor performance from Eric Boating. He had been playing really good this season, and the Sun Devils need him to play well to have a good inside presence. Derek Glasser continues to play All Pac-10 quality basketball, but nobody else on the team is helping out. They're now 6-3 with a win over LSU, and no bad losses. It's a mediocre start, but you can say the same thing about every other team in the Pac-10. They open Pac-10 play at UCLA on December 31st.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Greg Monroe Leads Georgetown Over Butler
We're snowed in here in Wisconsin, 15-20 inches of snow everywhere. So that means I've got time to finally catch up on game recaps:
#13 Georgetown 72, #20 Butler 65
It's a bit surprising to me that nobody is talking about Greg Monroe when talking about the best players in the country - do people not remember how good he was in high school and last year as a freshman? Matt Howard has struggled this season for Butler, and he was completely dominated by Monroe, who went for 24 points and 15 rebounds. Monroe held Howard to 1-for-9 shooting from the field before fouling him out. Georgetown's big men also fouled out Avery Jukes, leaving Butler with the choice of either Gordon Hayward playing center, or going with unproven young players. Needless to say, Georgetown dominated the boards (40-to-26) and blocks (9-to-3). But even with that said, Butler has really great guard play, and small forward play (if we count Hayward as a small forward, which is what he really is physically). Hayward is a potential All-America candidate, and he matched Monroe's 24 points. But in the end, the difference in this game was actually outside shooting, and Butler's lack of it. They couldn't hit their shots, and struggled to score despite a lot of easy attempts off of Georgetown turnovers. Butler now is 6-3, but their only two decent wins are over Northwestern and UCLA. Their final chance at a Top 25 win might be Saturday afternoon against a vulnerable Ohio State team (Evan Turner obviously will not play, as he will not be back any earlier than mid January). It's going to be very hard for them to do any better than a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can't collect a Top 25 victory. Matt Howard is going to have to stay on the floor and play well against Dallas Lauderdale. As for Georgetown, it seems pretty clear that they're in serious contention to win the Big East. Their guard play has to improve to match Monroe's play inside, but at this point it looks like they're in the mix at the top of the Big East, with West Virginia, Villanova, and perhaps also Syracuse and UConn.
#3 Villanova 95, Maryland 86
I find games like this pretty unpleasant to watch, actually. It was basically a three-point contest. Villanova actually shot 39 three-pointers, compared to only 36 two-pointers. I don't have a problem with a team that shoots three-pointers well, as Villanova does, taking a disproportionate amount of threes, but as Bobby Knight always teaches: never take a three-pointer in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, because that shot will always be there in the final 10 seconds. Try to get the ball inside, and if nothing develops then you can take that three as the clock is running down. So often I saw players dribble down the floor, make one pass to a player who fired a three without even dribbling, and with 27-30 seconds still on the shot clock. That's not what basketball is supposed to be. But as I've said before, it seems pretty clear that Villanova is content to live by the three and die by the three. And as long as they're hitting those threes, they're pretty unbeatable. If those shots don't fall, they're very beatable, but that doesn't seem to happen much. They were the team I picked to win the Big East, and I'm sticking by that projection. For Maryland, this is another missed opportunity, to come this close to a huge win when their two senior stars (Greivis Vasquez and Landon Milbourne) had bad nights. Jordan Williams looks like the best freshman that Gary Williams has had in several years, and will be a key to Maryland's ability to deal with the good frontcourts in the ACC. Maryland is now 5-3 with no bad losses (all were to likely RPI Top 50 teams), but their only decent win came over Indiana. So for the time being their resume stinks, although they're clearly better than that resume: Sagarin's ELO_CHESS has them 71st, and his PREDICTOR has them 29th. They now have a few creampuffs (although don't sleep on William & Mary as a potential upset) before ACC play begins. The lack of good wins out-of-conference means that Maryland is probably going to need to go 9-7 in the ACC to make the NCAA Tournament, althought 8-8 will be possible if they pull a win or two against teams like UNC or Duke, and if they can then play well in the ACC tournament.
Texas Tech 80, TCU 70
You never want to hype up a team too much in early December, but I'm starting to think that we've got to re-evaluate Pat Knight as a coach. We've seen quite a few cases of older coaches leaving a team for their children, and most of them haven't worked out. I assumed like most people that Pat Knight would be another Sean Sutton, and that the school would let him stay in charge for a few years before moving on to a more established coach. And this would be the type of game that you'd expect Texas Tech to lose - they'd just gotten ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time in about four or five years, and they had a very soft 8-0 record against an easy schedule, they were heading into a true road game against a quality opponent from a mid-major conference that is easy to underestimate. This is a game Texas Tech is supposed to lose. But Pat Knight got his kids motivated enough to win almost every aspect of this game, from shooting to rebounding to defense. They will now continue with three more tough games (at Wichita State, vs Stanford, at New Mexico) before getting ready for Big 12 play. You have to consider them a legitimate at-large contender right now. For TCU, this is another disappointing result in a disappointing start to the season. All of the computer rankings have them outside the Top 100, and they're looking clearly like the 6th best team in the Mountain West. The Mountain West is really good this season, and could potentially get four Tournament teams, but it won't get six.
#13 Georgetown 72, #20 Butler 65
It's a bit surprising to me that nobody is talking about Greg Monroe when talking about the best players in the country - do people not remember how good he was in high school and last year as a freshman? Matt Howard has struggled this season for Butler, and he was completely dominated by Monroe, who went for 24 points and 15 rebounds. Monroe held Howard to 1-for-9 shooting from the field before fouling him out. Georgetown's big men also fouled out Avery Jukes, leaving Butler with the choice of either Gordon Hayward playing center, or going with unproven young players. Needless to say, Georgetown dominated the boards (40-to-26) and blocks (9-to-3). But even with that said, Butler has really great guard play, and small forward play (if we count Hayward as a small forward, which is what he really is physically). Hayward is a potential All-America candidate, and he matched Monroe's 24 points. But in the end, the difference in this game was actually outside shooting, and Butler's lack of it. They couldn't hit their shots, and struggled to score despite a lot of easy attempts off of Georgetown turnovers. Butler now is 6-3, but their only two decent wins are over Northwestern and UCLA. Their final chance at a Top 25 win might be Saturday afternoon against a vulnerable Ohio State team (Evan Turner obviously will not play, as he will not be back any earlier than mid January). It's going to be very hard for them to do any better than a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can't collect a Top 25 victory. Matt Howard is going to have to stay on the floor and play well against Dallas Lauderdale. As for Georgetown, it seems pretty clear that they're in serious contention to win the Big East. Their guard play has to improve to match Monroe's play inside, but at this point it looks like they're in the mix at the top of the Big East, with West Virginia, Villanova, and perhaps also Syracuse and UConn.
#3 Villanova 95, Maryland 86
I find games like this pretty unpleasant to watch, actually. It was basically a three-point contest. Villanova actually shot 39 three-pointers, compared to only 36 two-pointers. I don't have a problem with a team that shoots three-pointers well, as Villanova does, taking a disproportionate amount of threes, but as Bobby Knight always teaches: never take a three-pointer in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, because that shot will always be there in the final 10 seconds. Try to get the ball inside, and if nothing develops then you can take that three as the clock is running down. So often I saw players dribble down the floor, make one pass to a player who fired a three without even dribbling, and with 27-30 seconds still on the shot clock. That's not what basketball is supposed to be. But as I've said before, it seems pretty clear that Villanova is content to live by the three and die by the three. And as long as they're hitting those threes, they're pretty unbeatable. If those shots don't fall, they're very beatable, but that doesn't seem to happen much. They were the team I picked to win the Big East, and I'm sticking by that projection. For Maryland, this is another missed opportunity, to come this close to a huge win when their two senior stars (Greivis Vasquez and Landon Milbourne) had bad nights. Jordan Williams looks like the best freshman that Gary Williams has had in several years, and will be a key to Maryland's ability to deal with the good frontcourts in the ACC. Maryland is now 5-3 with no bad losses (all were to likely RPI Top 50 teams), but their only decent win came over Indiana. So for the time being their resume stinks, although they're clearly better than that resume: Sagarin's ELO_CHESS has them 71st, and his PREDICTOR has them 29th. They now have a few creampuffs (although don't sleep on William & Mary as a potential upset) before ACC play begins. The lack of good wins out-of-conference means that Maryland is probably going to need to go 9-7 in the ACC to make the NCAA Tournament, althought 8-8 will be possible if they pull a win or two against teams like UNC or Duke, and if they can then play well in the ACC tournament.
Texas Tech 80, TCU 70
You never want to hype up a team too much in early December, but I'm starting to think that we've got to re-evaluate Pat Knight as a coach. We've seen quite a few cases of older coaches leaving a team for their children, and most of them haven't worked out. I assumed like most people that Pat Knight would be another Sean Sutton, and that the school would let him stay in charge for a few years before moving on to a more established coach. And this would be the type of game that you'd expect Texas Tech to lose - they'd just gotten ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time in about four or five years, and they had a very soft 8-0 record against an easy schedule, they were heading into a true road game against a quality opponent from a mid-major conference that is easy to underestimate. This is a game Texas Tech is supposed to lose. But Pat Knight got his kids motivated enough to win almost every aspect of this game, from shooting to rebounding to defense. They will now continue with three more tough games (at Wichita State, vs Stanford, at New Mexico) before getting ready for Big 12 play. You have to consider them a legitimate at-large contender right now. For TCU, this is another disappointing result in a disappointing start to the season. All of the computer rankings have them outside the Top 100, and they're looking clearly like the 6th best team in the Mountain West. The Mountain West is really good this season, and could potentially get four Tournament teams, but it won't get six.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Miami Finally Loses
Boston College 61, Miami (Fl) 60
Miami finally loses after that 8-0 start, but it's hard to get too down on them for this one. After getting off to a really sluggish start they got right back into things with a 19-3 second half run, and in the end it came down to a few shots in the final minute that just didn't go their way. Malcolm Grant has only started two of Miami's nine games, but considering that he was the only Hurricanes player to score in double digits, he might see more chances to start. Miami now gets several cream puffs before they have to play another ACC game. They'll have a great chance of going 14-0 in their out-of-conference games. Only one of those wins is over a good opponent (Minnesota), but you can't ignore that type of a record. If they can go just 8-8 in the ACC that would make them 22-8. As for Boston College, it's got to be encouraging to hold off a good Miami team in a game when Joe Trapani went 1-for-13 from the field, and the team as a whole went 3-for-18 from behind the arc. They might not shoot this poorly again all season. They're now 6-2 with wins over Providence, Michigan and Miami, and no really bad losses, which is a decent start. I'm curious to see what happens in that December 13th match-up with Rhode Island.
#19 Clemson 72, South Carolina 61
South Carolina actually played fairly well in this game, but they're just not as good as Clemson is. Brandis Raley-Ross has really improved over his four seasons, and his good game helped make up for something of a down night for Devan Downey. But they needed to play on all cylinders to beat Clemson. Clemson has a really nice backcourt with Tanner Smith and Demontez Stitt, and with Noel Johnson coming off the bench. Their sharp three-point shooting here is a good start, but they're going to have to show that consistently to force defenses to guard more of the floor. It's still really clear that defenses are taking advantage of the loss of Terrence Oglesby to clamp down on Trevor Booker inside, who is clearly down in production compared to last season. Clemson's now has a bunch of cream puffs before they play at Duke on January 3rd. They actually have both of their Duke games, as well as their only game against North Carolina, before January 20th. Certainly a bizarre ACC schedule, and you have to wonder if the creampuffs they're playing for almost the entire month of December will soften them up for those huge match-ups. Looking at South Carolina, they're now 6-2 with losses against the only two good teams they've played. But they get a nice chance to bounce back on December 16th against Richmond, and also play at Boston College, and at home against Baylor before SEC play begins. Although in the SEC East they will have plenty of chances to collect Top 25 scalps, as they'll get home and road games against Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida.
Oklahoma 79, Arizona 62
Arizona actually shot pretty well in their first true road game under Sean Miller. They hit 9-for-17 from behind the arc, but 16 turnovers (compared to only 7 for Oklahoma) did them in. They also struggled to defend Oklahoma's frontcourt players, which isn't a surprise when you consider how small Arizona's lineup is. For Arizona, they're entering a danger zone now that they're 3-4 overall. Sean Miller needs to keep his team on the Tournament bubble or he risks having his young players lose focus and confidence. And they don't have much of a breather: after playing Louisiana Tech they head to San Diego State, and two games later they play NC State, and then BYU to end their out-of-conference schedule. They have very few easy games, and Arizona might be in the vicinity of a .500 record for this entire season. As for Oklahoma, it's encouraging to see three players in double-digits not named Willie Warren. Warren is one of the best players in the Big 12, but he's going to need help if the Sooners are going to contend for one of the top spots in the conference. They're now 5-3 with wins over Arkansas and Arizona to go with losses against VCU, San Diego and Houston. Not exactly a very impressive resume so far. But the year is young, and they'll have plenty of chances to get good wins in the Big 12. I think that they're better than their record indicates, although not too much better. Their next test is Saturday afternoon at Utah.
Miami finally loses after that 8-0 start, but it's hard to get too down on them for this one. After getting off to a really sluggish start they got right back into things with a 19-3 second half run, and in the end it came down to a few shots in the final minute that just didn't go their way. Malcolm Grant has only started two of Miami's nine games, but considering that he was the only Hurricanes player to score in double digits, he might see more chances to start. Miami now gets several cream puffs before they have to play another ACC game. They'll have a great chance of going 14-0 in their out-of-conference games. Only one of those wins is over a good opponent (Minnesota), but you can't ignore that type of a record. If they can go just 8-8 in the ACC that would make them 22-8. As for Boston College, it's got to be encouraging to hold off a good Miami team in a game when Joe Trapani went 1-for-13 from the field, and the team as a whole went 3-for-18 from behind the arc. They might not shoot this poorly again all season. They're now 6-2 with wins over Providence, Michigan and Miami, and no really bad losses, which is a decent start. I'm curious to see what happens in that December 13th match-up with Rhode Island.
#19 Clemson 72, South Carolina 61
South Carolina actually played fairly well in this game, but they're just not as good as Clemson is. Brandis Raley-Ross has really improved over his four seasons, and his good game helped make up for something of a down night for Devan Downey. But they needed to play on all cylinders to beat Clemson. Clemson has a really nice backcourt with Tanner Smith and Demontez Stitt, and with Noel Johnson coming off the bench. Their sharp three-point shooting here is a good start, but they're going to have to show that consistently to force defenses to guard more of the floor. It's still really clear that defenses are taking advantage of the loss of Terrence Oglesby to clamp down on Trevor Booker inside, who is clearly down in production compared to last season. Clemson's now has a bunch of cream puffs before they play at Duke on January 3rd. They actually have both of their Duke games, as well as their only game against North Carolina, before January 20th. Certainly a bizarre ACC schedule, and you have to wonder if the creampuffs they're playing for almost the entire month of December will soften them up for those huge match-ups. Looking at South Carolina, they're now 6-2 with losses against the only two good teams they've played. But they get a nice chance to bounce back on December 16th against Richmond, and also play at Boston College, and at home against Baylor before SEC play begins. Although in the SEC East they will have plenty of chances to collect Top 25 scalps, as they'll get home and road games against Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida.
Oklahoma 79, Arizona 62
Arizona actually shot pretty well in their first true road game under Sean Miller. They hit 9-for-17 from behind the arc, but 16 turnovers (compared to only 7 for Oklahoma) did them in. They also struggled to defend Oklahoma's frontcourt players, which isn't a surprise when you consider how small Arizona's lineup is. For Arizona, they're entering a danger zone now that they're 3-4 overall. Sean Miller needs to keep his team on the Tournament bubble or he risks having his young players lose focus and confidence. And they don't have much of a breather: after playing Louisiana Tech they head to San Diego State, and two games later they play NC State, and then BYU to end their out-of-conference schedule. They have very few easy games, and Arizona might be in the vicinity of a .500 record for this entire season. As for Oklahoma, it's encouraging to see three players in double-digits not named Willie Warren. Warren is one of the best players in the Big 12, but he's going to need help if the Sooners are going to contend for one of the top spots in the conference. They're now 5-3 with wins over Arkansas and Arizona to go with losses against VCU, San Diego and Houston. Not exactly a very impressive resume so far. But the year is young, and they'll have plenty of chances to get good wins in the Big 12. I think that they're better than their record indicates, although not too much better. Their next test is Saturday afternoon at Utah.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
