Sunday, December 31, 2006

W-10 BP65

Sorry guys, no long summary today. Just getting the BP65 out on the web before games start. We'll have more discussion on big games and the BCS vs. Mid-Majors after the New Year:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Arizona
2. LSU
2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Alabama
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke
3. UConn

4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. Oklahoma State
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Tennessee
5. Texas
5. Oregon
5. Washington

6. Kentucky
6. Maryland
6. Michigan State
6. California

7. WICHITA ST (MVC)]
7. Notre Dame
7. Boston College
7. West Virginia

8. Gonzaga
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)
8. Illinois
8. NEVADA (WAC)

9. Missouri State
9. Purdue
9. Georgetown
9. Virginia

10. Clemson
10. Missouri
10. Villanova
10. Northern Iowa

11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. USC
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Texas Tech
12. Syracuse
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Louisville

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Friday, December 29, 2006

More Holiday Hoops

#4 Florida 86, #3 Ohio State 60 No one saw this coming, so don't even say that you did. The game was relatively close throughout the first half and into the second half, before everything that could go wrong began going wrong for OSU. What really buried them was their immaturity. As soon as they fell behind by 8, 9, 10 points they started launching threes every time down the floor. They had a ton of time left but panicked. For a team that is ridiculously young, you had to expect this to happen at some point, although not to this extreme perhaps. Ohio State could use this as a building block, if That Motta can stress this as what not to do when down by a few points on the road. Ohio State needs to learn soon, because they head to Wisconsin in a couple weeks for a monumental game. If Ohio State can sweep the regular season and postseason Big 10 titles, they will still get a #1 seed and this game won't even matter.

Tennessee 111, Texas 105, OT Tennessee sure is a fun team to watch, aren't they? Bruce Pearl is a great coach and this team really matches his excitement and energy. This game could have some seeding implications in March, but for now it was just a game to sit back and enjoy. A big 26 and 8 out of superfrosh Kevin Durant matched by 35 and 11 (plus a clutch 3-pointer late) by All-American Chris Lofton. The game was just close in every way. 45% shooting to 44% shooting, 48 rebounds to 45, 10 rebounds to 7, 29 fouls to 24. Nothing for either team to be ashamed about.

USC 60, #8 Wichita State 56 This game just goes to show what I've been saying all year: the Mid-Majors struggle when they play games they're supposed to win. It goes to a larger point that I will make a longer post about: It's so much easier to win as an underdog when you have a long time to focus on one game. It's much, much harder when you have to beat quality teams night in and night out, two or three times per week. So we've gone from under-rating these teams to over-rating them. If we're going to lavish praise on these teams for beating Iowa and Purdue, then we have to lavish praise on BCS schools that do it almost every game. Wichita State, like other mid-majors has struggled in games it's supposed to win (as opposed to games they're just happy to win), and when you combine that with a team that is not only an underdog but which also has Pac-10 talent... no one should be surprised at this result. So, should I shove this result in the face of those Wichita State fans that tried to deface this blog with insult-filled posts for suggesting (egads!) that Wichita State would only end up with a 6 or 7 seed, and not a 1, 2 or 3 seed... nah.

USC 86, #13 Washington 79 Speaking of USC: Welcome back to big-time basketball! As big as the win over a Top 10 team was, this was clearly an even bigger win for the program. I thought I was being optimistic for thinking they'd be back to the Tournament as early as next year. They might be back this year. The only real question regards how USC handles the success. How do they play once they become the hunted instead of the hunters? Can they win some games on the road in the Pac-10? I mean, they could easily fall on their face and lose their next game to Washington State. They still have a lot to prove before we start putting the cameras in their building on Selection Sunday.

#21 Clemson 75, Georgia 60
I talked about this possibility a few weeks ago, and it's become reality. Barring a monumental flop against Georgia State, they're going to enter ACC play at 14-0. Even if they only go 8-8 in conference play, it's going to be tough to keep a 22-8 ACC team out of the Tournament. If they go 9-7 and making the ACC Tourney Semifinals, I'd have to actually consider them a LOCK to get in, which would have been a pretty amazing statement two months ago. Of course, before we get ahead of ourselves, Clemson hasn't actually beaten a Tournament-quality team yet. This is the best win they've had. But when you go through the schedule you have road games like Old Dominion and Minnesota and home games like Georgia and Mississippi State. None of those, by themselves, is all too impressive. But when taken together, they represent a decent minefield traversed. All of those are games they could have lost and didn't. If they can win their ACC opener at FSU they might really be ready to explode on the ACC scene.

Indiana State 89, Purdue 70
Speaking of the "Clemson of the Big 10", as I've been calling them, Purdue's out-of-conference play has taken a different turn from that of Clemson. After a great 8-1 start that included wins over Missouri, Virginia and Oklahoma, they've lost two of their last four, including this romp by the Sycamores. But all is not lost for the Boilermakers. In a lot of ways their out-of-conference schedule has a different style than that of Clemson. Clemson didn't win a single game as an underdog, and many of their games were blowouts. They were building momentum and confidence, and building a resume before ACC play began. Purdue, on other hand, has played some real close games and tough road games. They are already prepared for tough conference play. We don't know how Clemson is going to respond when they lose two tough games in a row. Will they bounce back or will they roll over? As for Purdue, they start off with four winnable Big 10 games. If they can win three of four they'll be back on track and in excellent shape. If they only go 2-2 they'll be okay, but they really need to avoid a 1-3 start heading into Madison to face the Badgers. A likely loss there would drop them to 1-4, and make them really need a big turnaround to get back onto the Bubble.

UNLV 74, Texas Tech 66
You could really tell why Bob Knight wants this record over with. The Red Raiders just looked so unbelievably tight throughout the first half. They didn't loosen up until the final ten minutes, when they finally came to realization that they probably weren't breaking the record and just went out and played Texas Tech basketball. As for the record: Like Andy Katz said, Knight isn't really going to own this record. He's just keeping it warm until Coach K takes it. He's closing hard and will have it within four years of when Knight retires. If Krzyzewski sticks around and coaches until he's in his 70's he could put that record out of reach. He'll blow past 1000 wins before he even hits 70, most likely while he's 68. Back to the Red Raiders, they've had some good wins this year, and some real flashes of excellence. They have the potential to be a really tough team to beat, especially at Lubbock. We just won't really know how good this team is until they get the burden of win 880 off their backs. Hopefully they can get it against New Mexico so they can start Big 12 play with a clear mind.

Sunday, December 24, 2006

W-11 BP65

Sorry for the late posting everyone, but there's no rush today. There aren't any games on tap for a few days. More updates on yesterday's late games (including Florida's remarkable game against OSU) coming soon:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Wisconsin

3. Alabama
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke
3. UConn

4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. Oklahoma State
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Washington
5. Kentucky
5. Texas
5. Tennessee

6. Maryland
6. Michigan State
6. California
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)

7. Boston College
7. Missouri State
7. Gonzaga
7. AIR FORCE (MWC)

8. Illinois
8. Oregon
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. West Virginia

9. Purdue
9. Georgetown
9. Virginia
9. Notre Dame

10. Syracuse
10. Clemson
10. Missouri
10. Villanova

11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. Texas Tech
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Georgia Tech
12. Northern Iowa
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Louisville

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Holiday Hoops

Utah 94, Virginia 70
I don't know what's going on with the Cavaliers. They had such an outstanding start to the year that it seemed like they might compete for a spot in the top four in the ACC or so. But at this point, Virginia's Tournament resume is pretty suspect with back-to-back losses to Appalachian State and Utah. To be fair, Utah did shoot an insane 62.3% from the field. They also took down 8 offensive boards while Virginia only managed 10 defensive rebounds the entire game (can anyone remember a good team having so few defensive rebounds?). If Virginia is getting worked on the inside by Utah, they're in trouble when they head to Chapel Hill in a few weeks.

#9 Arizona 79, #18 Memphis 71
For a young team, Arizona really looks like a polished product. Chase Budinger and Ivan Radenovic are already looked like seasoned players, and both scored 18 points in this one. It helps to have a real seasoned veteran in Mustafa Shakur who can score whenever you really need a basket. Also, I don't know if it was Arizona's athleticism or just some lazy defense by Memphis, but in a matchup between two top-20 teams you almos never see a 38-10 free throw advantage. Other than that, Memphis played well. Regardless, Conference USA doesn't look all too good this year, so don't expect to see Memphis getting outworked like this on most nights.

Texas 80, Arkansas 76
Pretty amazing that these two teams hadn't played since the Southwest Conference broke up. Also, I don't know if it's just that the atmosphere doesn't translate on television, but it just doesn't seem like Texas is a very intimidating place to play. The crowd didn't seem like much of a factor at all. As for the game, just a very close match the whole way. Texas has the stars in Durant and Abrams, but Arkansas just seemed to have a slew of solid, consistent players. When push came to shove in the last minute of the game, though, the Texas stars took over. Either way, this game needs to happen more than once every fifteen years.

#17 Washington 88, #15 LSU 72
This wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score indicates. Early on, the Huskies went on a ridiculous run, scoring at an insane rate. Meanwhile, Big Baby really struggled to score with the heavy Washington pressure. They figured out that if the whole team just collapsed on him every time he was in the paint, LSU didn't have many good spot-up shooters for Glen Davis to kick it out to. After the early run, the last 30 minutes of the game had fairly even scoring. As for the two young big guys for Washington, Jon Brockman and Spencer Hawes, they're both good but I'm not ready to really consider them elite. Washington always plays well at home. I'd like to see those two score 42 points on the road in the Pac-10. Because remember, Washington needs to learn to play away from home if they want to have real Tournament success under Lorenzo Romar.

#14 Oklahoma St 95, #7 Pittsburgh 89, 2OT
A very good, well-played game. Definitely no reason to drop Pitt after this one, because they didn't show any new faults that weren't already on display at Wisconsin. They have good players all over the floor, but they just don't have that superstar, go-to guy. Gray needs to try to be a more dominant force inside. He has a bad habit of wandering outside near the three point line, where it's impossible for him to be anything but a guy to kick the ball to. Pitt already has players to kick the ball to - Ronald Ramon is deadly from outside - and what they really need is a guy who can demand the ball and score at will. As for Oklahoma State, it looks like Sean Sutton's teams are a lot like those of his father. A lot of good athletes, though not necessarily the most fundamentally sound or smooth. I wonder if they still practice with football pads. On a side note, you have to like the acting job by Byron Eaton on that flagrant foul that ended the game. It was clearly a flagrant foul, but Eaton was barely touched. Eaton went with the flow and flipped himself over, then lay on the ground with his head in his hands until the intentional was called, then got up with a huge smile. Before Pitt fans complain, it was clearly the correct call, but Eaten definitely made sure the ref called it.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Lots to Talk About

Sorry for the spotty posting this week. Here are some notes on some of the biggest games from this week. As for today's matchups, I'll get to those later this week:

Indiana 57, Southern Illinois 47
As I mentioned a few weeks back, it's amzing to think about how this game was going to be more important for Indiana than Southern Illinois, but it's just a fact that up until this game the Salukis had a better Tournament resume than the Hoosiers. Now, this game goes highlighted why Indiana will be a dangerous opponent for anyone in the Big 10 this year - they simply play hard and hustle and fight for points. Even against a Missouri Valley team like Southern Illinois, they didn't have overwhelming talent and they didn't score well (only 38% from the field), but they hustled. They forced 19 Salukis turnovers, brought down 8 offensive boards and drew 27 fouls. They're not going to score 85 points against Ohio State or Wisconsin because they just don't have the talent, but they're a pesky team to play. Even if it does seem like a bizarro world when Indiana is the pesky upstart. Meanwhile, this game also highlighted the biggest problem for Southern Illinois - offense. Everyone knows they can play defense, but they just lack any offensive firepower at all. And when you can't make your own shot, and you can't shoot, you'd better be able to get some offensive boards or get some fast breaks. Two offensive rebounds and two steals is just not going to cut it at all. Play like this is going to knock Southern Illinois right out of the Tournament.

St. Louis 51, Missouri State 50

Just a bad performance by the Bears, in every sense of the word. After leading 46-35 with just under 10 minutes to go, they only managed four points the rest of the way. If Blake Ahearn wants to be a star, he needs to learn to take over and score some points in situations like that, but he failed to even make a shot. They just allowed St. Louis to hang around, never putting them away. They even missed several front-ends to one-and-ones, which should be a stat in itself. That should count for more than just one missed free throw, since in reality two points are left on the table. And all of this highlights the problem with considering the top teams in the Missouri Valley comparable to good teams in BCS conferences. Teams like Missouri State and Wichita State have done a great job getting up for big games against top schools like LSU and Wisconsin. But when they're no longer the underdogs, and forced to face the expectations of winning the game, they struggle. It's a lot harder to win when you're a favorite than when you're the underdog.

Illinois 73, Missouri 70
A very good win for an Illinois team that is solidifying its spot in the Tournament. And good practice, too, since Missouri runs the type of up-tempo basketball that the dangerous first-round Tournament opponents will play. Missouri doesn't yet have real big-time talent, especially in the size department, so it was natural that they'd struggle on the inside with a traditional Big 10 power. Illini big men had a field day on the offensive boards, but methinks they won't have so much success against the real big squads. As for Missouri, this all highlights the fact that they need some time to develop under Mike Anderson. He needs a few years to bring in the type of players that can compete at the highest level of college ball. The success he's had this year (including the resurgence of crowds at Mizzou Arena) should help recruiting.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

W-12 BP65

This week was pretty slow as far as good games went - there just isn't much going on during the week with most schools having their final exams. Next week should be more of the same. Still, a few good games went down in the late afternoon and evening on Saturday, so let's get to those first:

#18 Butler 68, Purdue 65
A big win for the Bulldogs, and a big missed opportunity for Purdue. It was clear in this game which time had more talent, but Butler had the senior experience and consistency. Their free throw shooting was outstanding (except, ironically, at the very end), while Purdue kept playing over-active basketball in the pressure. At the end of the game, Purdue had several chances to tie (not just the desperation 3-pointer they've been showing on Sportscenter) and they either took an off-balanced shot or had a turnover every time. Purdue has definitely had an outstanding out-of-conference season, and the program is clearly showing that they have a life after Gene Keady, but it's hard to see how they're going to compete with the big boys in the Big 10. I see their ceiling as 5th in the conference or so.

Kentucky 61, Louisville 49
A solid win for a Kentucky team that has a better resume than people realize. Somehow, they didn't get a single vote in either Top 25 polls last week, despite the fact that they're looking fairly safe for a Tournament at-large bid right now. They may only be 7-3, but their three losses are to UCLA, UNC and at Memphis. All those losses say to me is that Kentucky is not a top team. But they're definitely a team around the border of the Top 25. For the record, they currently have an RPI of 33, and Jeff Sagarin ranks them 42nd. Louisville on the other hand.... eh. They have looked pretty bad so far. You'd think that Rick Pitino could put something together at some point this year, but he's running out of time. The Big East season is about to start, and Louisville needs to finish near the top of it to get back to the Tournament.

Texas Tech 71, Arkansas 56
A very surprising outcome. Texas Tech hadn't played well this year, with the lack of a second scorer and the distraction of Bobby Knight's wins record, so this trip to an up-and-coming team seemed like a bad situation. Instead, Arkansas looked absolutely atrocious for the first 10 minutes, and never was able to make up ground on Tech. This is the kind of win that could be a good springboard into the Big 12 season for Knight. As for Arkansas, I'm having trouble rationalizing why they should be the Tournament right now. They're 8-2, but the best team they've beaten has been Southern Illinois. The two best teams they've played, Missouri and Texas Tech, controlled them. You have to wonder if Arkansas is athletic enough to handle top teams gunning for them. Last year they were a team that others slept on. This year, no one is sleeping on the Razorbacks.

Georgia 96, #16 Gonzaga 83
So are the Zags the team that got beat up by Georgia and Washington State, or the team that dominated Washington? I want to say it's the latter, but Gonzaga's defense just looks too atrocious for them to be a top team. Honestly, they looked bad at everything but scoring. The had outstanding shooting - 59% from the field, including 11-22 from 3-point land - yet somehow lost by 13. How did that happen? For one thing, they couldn't get a defensive board, giving up 14 offensive boards to only 18 defensive boards for themselves. Add that to their 21 turnovers and you figure out how Georgia had an amazing 76 shots taken from the field, to only 56 for Gonzaga. If I want to find a silver lining for Gonzaga it's this: Their loss to Washington State was a "look ahead" game before they dominated Washington. So, is it possible that this was their look ahead game before their next matchup with Duke? They better hope so.

Missouri State 80, Indiana State 60
Another very good win for Missouri State, a team that might actually move into the Top 25 this week. They already have some marquee wins, and look pretty solid as far as a Tournament bid. And when you consider that they are probably the best threat to steal the conference from Wichita State, they might be looking at a seed around a 6 or 7. As for Indiana State, a bad start to a very important conference season. They don't have the out-of-conference resume of a Tournament team, so they need a good conference season to have a postseason.

Fresno State 69, Creighton 54
I think that, along with a lot of other people, I really overranked Creighton during the preaseason. Outside of Nate Funk (who hasn't been as good as billed himself) and Anthony Tolliver, they really don't have any other good players. They have struggled mightily to score against good teams. Right now, they do not have a Tournament resume at all, and need to send a message in two weeks when they have their conference opener at home against Missouri State. On the other, how about Fresno State? They haven't done enough to get into the BP65 yet, but their 9-1 record is nothing to sniff out. If they can close out the out-of-conference season with wins over Cal Poly, San Diego and Stanford, and then finish 12-4 in conference, they might be a 24-5 team out of the WAC. They wouldn't have any elite wins, but can you see a 24-5 team from a good mid-major conference getting kept out? Either way, Fresno State won't be in the BP65 yet, because I'd like to see them actually beat San Diego and Stanford first. As for the other 65 teams, here they are:



1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Wisconsin

3. Alabama
3. Texas
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke

4. UConn
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. Maryland
5. Tennessee
5. Michigan State

6. California
6. Washington
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)
6. Boston College

7. Missouri State
7. Syracuse
7. Virginia
7. Oklahoma St

8. Gonzaga
8. Illinois
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)

9. Georgia Tech
9. UAB
9. Oregon
9. Missouri

10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Clemson
10. Villanova
10. West Virginia

11. Texas Tech
11. Purdue
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Notre Dame
12. Northern Iowa
12. Michigan
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Tough day for Pitt

#7 Wisconsin 89, #2 Pittsburgh 75
Before getting to Pitt's performance, it's ncessary to point out the coming-out game for potential All-Big 10 player Brian Butch (27 points and 11 rebounds) and a Player-of-the-Year performance by Alando Tucker (32 points, 10 rebounds). Everyone knew that this Wisconsin team had experience and talent, and was practically a lock for the top 15, but the real question was whether they had the star power, or go-to-guy to challenge Ohio State and the rest of the country. Tucker is clearly that guy - scoring a basket seemingly every time that Wisconsin needed one. Along with the great homecourt advantage that they have in Madison, it's har dto see any team wanting to come in there right now. On the other hand, I think Pitt learned today that they were in denial if they thought that they wouldn't be affected by loss of Carl Krauser. When they needed a basket, they just didn't have that star who could handle the ball and put the ball in the hoop. Aaron Gray is an excellent post player, but there are very few post players who can really be a dominant force in the college game. On the outside, Ronald Ramon is a great shooter, but he's a role player. He needs someone else to kick him the ball. Pitt has a slew of good ball handlers and swingmen, sevearl of them scoring 8-12 points, but none was a go-to guy. No one who could carry the team on their back. I know that Aaron Gray was sick, but how much better can a Pitt fan expect than 17 and 8? If Pitt wants to compete with schools like UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, LSU and Wisconsin, they need to develop a real go-to-guy to fill that void left by Krauser.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Travis Ford: An Excellent Young Coach

UMass 72, Louisville 68
Travis Ford is one of those under-the-radar young coaches that is soon going to get the national attention that he deserves. After a solid playing career at Kentucky, it was easy to dismiss his early success in the NAIA as a product of his Kentucky connections, but his remarkable turnaround of the Eastern Kentucky program shows an ability to get the best out of his talent on a nightly basis. Now, he's doing it at UMass, a program that had largely dropped off the map (along with the rest of the Atlantic 10) after the glory days of the '90's with Marcus Camby and John Calipari. I didn't think that UMass had the pure talent to get a Tournament birth out of this season, but once again Ford is just squeezing out as much as he can from the cards he's been given. In his second season, UMass is actually a not-so-longshot bubble team. This is easily their best win, which isn't that great when you consider the resumes of other marginal bubble teams like Indiana State or Florida State, but they also haven't lost to anyone bad. Their two losses are to Boston College and Pitt - nothing to be ashamed of. They only get one other shot at a premiere win - a tough game at Kentucky next week that they'll probably lose. Luckily for UMass, the Atlantic 10 may not be like the '90's, but it's still a good conference. Resume building wins (as well as quality losses) exist in the form of Xavier and George Washington. If UMass can find some way to win 22 or 23 games and finish second in the A-10 (presumably ahead of GW and behind Xavier) it would be hard to deny them a Tournament bid. Even if they don't beat Kentucky, home wins over Miami, George Washington and Temple in the first half of January (along with a lack of bad losses) will probably be enough to get the Minutement into the BP65 in the runup to a big January 18th game at Xavier. Could be a really good game, with big Tournament ramifications. At the very least, some national recognition will help bring in the recruits that could return UMass back to its spot on top of the conference... assuming they can keep Ford from leaving to a bigger school.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Is Anyone That Surprised?

Texas 76, #11 LSU 75
Honestly, did nobody see this coming? Just click on the "Bracket Project" link on the right of the page to see some people who actually have predicted that Texas won't make the Tournament at all. I've been consistently putting the Longhorns as one of the top seeds in the Tournament, because they just have too much talent. In a lot of ways, they're a lot like Kansas. On any night they can stink up the joint and lose to anyone. But on a good night they can play with anyone. Even an outstanding LSU team. I still think Texas is the second best team in the Big 12, and that they'll beat A&M when push comes to shove. As for LSU, they just need to regroup, with a big matchup at Washington coming in a little more than a week.

Boston College 73, #22 Maryland 62
Boston College just has too much talent to struggle so much, and they proved it against an unsuspecting Maryland team. Now, Boston College has had a bad habit of underperforming their talent level under Al Skinner, but this was clearly a game where the athletes played to their potential. As for Maryland, the silver lining is another good game out of junior James Gist (17 points and 10 boards). For a player that almost no one heard of before this year (only 8 points in 22 minutes per game last year) he's looking like he's really excelling in the extended playing time that he's gotten this year.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

W-13 BP65

#18 Gonzaga 97, #8 Washington 77
Well, I guess it really was a look-ahead game. Gonzaga is clearly still a top team, and if the voters know what they're doing they won't drop the Zags in tomorrow's new poll. As for Washington, they have to be worried about their defense. There are some high-powered offenses in the Pac-10. What are they going to do when they face Arizona? Also, getting outrebounded by Gonzaga isn't too comforting. Meanwhile, Gonzaga still has a couple more good out-of-conference opponents before the WCC schedule starts. They could use a few more wins to buffer a possible loss in conference play.

UNLV 58, #19 Nevada 49
Is this really the first win for the Rebs over a ranked team on the road in since 1991? Wow, it's been a long time. Meanwhile, not a total disaster for Nevada. Fazekas wasn't 100%, and the team clearly had an off day from the floor. This loss does, however, set up a huge matchup on the 30th against Gonzaga. For two teams from mid-major conferences, it's the last chance to get a real good win before Selection Sunday. So will Nevada drop a lot in the new BP65? Not so much. They just can't let this happen too many more times:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Alabama

3. Texas
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Wisconsin
3. Duke

4. UConn
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. Maryland
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Tennessee

6. California
6. Michigan St
6. Washington
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)

7. Boston College
7. Syracuse
7. Virginia
7. Oklahoma St

8. Missouri St
8. Creighton
7. NEVADA (WAC)
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)

9. Georgia Tech
9. UAB
9. Illinois
9. Oregon

10. Missouri
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Clemson
10. Missouri St

11. Villanova
11. Purdue
11. Arkansas
11. Northern Iowa

12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. San Diego State
12. Notre Dame
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. TENNESSEE TECH (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Wild Saturday

First weekend without college football, and it's basketball's turn to provide entertainment for the anti-social amongst us. For those that put in a few hours of viewing, we learned more about struggling teams with great reputations (Duke, Georgetown, Kentucky), and found some teams getting themselves into the thick of the at-large discussion (Purdue) while others blew their shot (Western Kentucky). So without further ado, let's get to it:

#9 Duke 69, George Mason 53

This game was a lot closer than the final score, which shouldn't be too comforting to Blue Devils fans. The defense looked good, but we already knew that they had good defense. One bright spot was that the offense looked a bit more aggressive than in past games. They also turned the ball over less, limiting bad turnovers against an aggressive George Mason defense. Still, if they can barely score in the 60's against a Colonial team, what shot do they have to score the 80+ points they'll need to hang with UNC?

Kentucky 59, Indiana 54
Not a good game for Kentucky. Indiana isn't a great team, and they didn't play a great game, but Kentucky simply could not put them away. It was a give-and-take game the whole way. One thing that was especially disturbing was that Kentucky got outrebounded by the Hoosiers. With the height advantage that Kentucky had, that just shouldn't happen. Randolph Morris played well, but he needs some more support on the inside. The SEC has a bunch of good frontlines, and Kentucky needs one to compete.

Georgetown 73, Oral Roberts 58
Compared to how the Hoyas have played lately, this was actually a good win. Roy Hibbert played a lot like JTIII has been expecting, bringing down season highs in points (23) and rebounds (11). Oral Roberts is no pushover, but I'm afraid it's going to take a lot more than this to get Georgetown back in the Top 25 and back in contention in the Big East, despite the poor play from the Big East lately (currently ranked 6th in conference RPI). There are a lot of talented players on Georgetown - atleast one of them has to step up and become a star.

#20 Wisconsin 70, #12 Marquette 66
A great win for Wisconsin in the "Wisconsin State Championship." Not only does this game have recruiting repercussions, but it was also something of a coming out game for both Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes. Along with Jason Bohannon and another year from Michael Flowers, the Badgers will still have a good backcourt after Alando Tucker and Chris Rock graduate. As for this year, Tucker had a great game, firmly establishing himself as a serious candidate for Big-10 player of the year, as well as 1st Team All-America. On a side note, an excellent coaching job from Bo Ryan, who was obviously upset by Winthrop's dominant 3-point performance in Wisconsin's last game. Ryan's teaching these past few days clearly worked, because Marquette only shot 3-for-18 from behind the arc.

Purdue 79, Missouri 62
Speaking of good performances by the Big 10, it's hard to ignore Purdue as an at-large candidate at this point. In many ways, they're the Clemson of the Big 10, continuing to win game after game until their doubters just start to melt away. Count me as a former doubter. Meanwhile, Carl Landry is looking like a solid candidate for 1st Team Big-10. Tomorrow morning they will move into the BP65 for the first time this year. Meanwhile, none of this changes the fact that Missouri is an excellent team. They still are on pace for an at-large bid.

#1 UCLA 65, #6 Texas A&M 62
Just a good game between two good teams. No real big faults for either teams, as far as physical prowess goes. UCLA just continues to win, through a very tough schedule, and has clearly earned its #1 ranking. As for the Aggies, this makes two losses in one week. Both losses were against top teams, but the questions will persist whether this team can handle the pressure of being a top team. It's not exactly a program with a great history of success. Unfortunately, we won't know too much more about Texas A&M in the near future, as they won't play another ranked team for more than a month.

Drexel 81, Villanova 76
Everyone knows that Villanova lost a ton of talent to the draft, but their poor start to the season is still very surprising. At this point Villanova isn't even a real contender to win the Big East, and has to question whether they'll make the Tournament at all. They have a great coach, and plenty of time to turn this around, but this loss is not what the Wildcats needed after a fairly mediocre start of the season and no good opponents for almost a month.

Indiana St 72, #14 Butler 64
As I've said numerous times, this was bound to happen. Butler was overhyped - they're a good team, but not a top 25 team. And they don't have too many "good" losses left, which means that they're probably only one more loss away from falling out of the rankings, with little chance to get back. The best opponent that Butler plays the rest of the way is Purdue, a game shaping up to be a great matchup between two over-achieving teams. As for Indiana State, they've proved that they can beat a good team on any night. But they have too many bad losses thus far this year to be in the BP65. Thankfully for them, unlike Butler, they have a conference with good wins and losses to be had. A finish in the upper third of the Missouri Valley could spell a Tournament bid for the Sycamores.

Southern Illinois 75, Western Kentucky 70
A huge missed opportunity for a Western Kentucky team that had overachieved thus far this year. It's a long shot to consider a Sun Belt team for an at-large bid, but the Hilltoppers had a chance if they could have won this game. Still, they're the favorite to win their conference and get in with an automatic bid.

Friday, December 08, 2006

More Dogs in the Fight

Tennessee 76, #17 Memphis 58
A huge win for a Volunteers team in desperate need of a win. No real bad losses, but no good wins either for a team with a lot of talent and a great coach. A couple things that probably made this win extra sweet for the men in orange: First, an All-American performance from Chris Lofton. The junior had played well all year, but 6-11 3-point shooting for 34 points against Memphis on national tv is going to get anyone a lot of attention. Meanwhile, I'm sure Bruce Pearl is satisfied with a win over John Calipari, with whom he has a rivalry that has been covered plenty in the media.

#9 Duke 57, Holy Cross 45
This game was even closer than the final score. While Duke's offensive struggles have been covered plenty in the news, their biggest issue in this game actually wasn't their offensive aggressiveness. They got to the foul line 27 times and pulled down 15 offensive boards (Holy Cross only took down 15 defensive rebounds). However, they turned the ball over 19 times. Holy Cross actually forced a remarkable 11 steals. Duke has always had good guard play, but Greg Paulus has simply not done the job. Some have suggested that Jon Scheyer take over the starting role, but he is still a freshman with more turnovers than assists. The fact is that Coach K has a ton of talent at his disposal, and there has to be someone who can control the ball against Holy Cross. He just needs to find that kid soon, because Gonzaga is coming up in a couple weeks and ACC play starts in less than a month.

Washington St. 77, #18 Gonzaga 67
A great win for a Cougars team looking to justify its early season record with a win over a top-tier team. As for the Zags, we'll have to see if this was a look-ahead game. They have a big game against Washington coming up - if they win that then all is well. If not, Gonzaga could find itself sliding right out of the Top 25, with no chance to return for two weeks until they play a hungry Duke team. Back to Washington State, I don't think this win gets them on the bubble quite yet, but they're worth keeping an eye on. With no more good out-of-conference games (honestly, this was their only good out-of-conference opponent), the Cougars need a good run in conference. They get a good shot at Pauley Pavilion in a few weeks.

Notre Dame 99, #5 Alabama 85
Excellent win for a Notre Dame team looking for a game to brag about. Their early season last-second loss to Butler must have given Irish fans nightmares of another season like last year, when they seemingly lost a dozen games at the buzzer. But a win over Maryland, and another over the Tide has to have South Bend thinking Tournament. The Big East is pretty wide open this year - no one has had a real big early season win, no one like Villanova and UConn of last year. Notre Dame should believe they have a chance to win every one of their games. If they're right the majority of the time, they might have a longer postseason than they had last year.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Posting Etiquette

I just want to make a full post addressing this: I want to keep this blog clean. So, no cursing, and no ad hominem attacks. Calling someone an "idiot" doesn't serve anyone any good. I understand that fans are always optimistic in regards of the team that they root for, and that's good, but at the very least we should debate it in a reasoned way. I encourage criticism, but if comments go too far in a personal nature I will be forced to delete them.


Moving onto more pleasant business, some recent games to discuss:

Miami (Fl) 90, #24 Georgia Tech 82
More of a bad loss for Tech than a good win for the Canes. Miami has struggled this year, and is far from thinking about an at-large bid right now. The Yellow Jackets, on the other hand, had established a good resume up to this point. Tech still has the out-of-conference resume that they need. But they'd better win atleast 9 ACC games to feel good about a bid, or even more if they want a decent seed.

Florida St 70, #4 Florida 66
A huge win for a Seminole team looking for a win after flat performances against Pitt and Wisconsin. Florida State was one of the first teams out of the tournament this year, so they know as well as anyone how important a win like this will be in March. As for Florida, they still feel unsure of themselves as they get prepared to defend their title. The full team should be back together and healthy soon, and there's certainly no reason to panic in Gainesville.

#12 Wisconsin 82, Winthrop 79 OT
Wintrhop is built like the ideal bracket-buster. They don't have the size or athleticism of a top team, but they press for 40 minutes and hit 3-pointers at an amazing rate - the ideal formula for an overmatched mid-major. Two stats from this game that I found amazing: Both teams took 25 three-pointers, but Wisconsin made six while Winthrop made 15. Meanwhile, Wisconsin had more offensive rebounds (18) than Winthrop had total rebounds (17). Crazy game. I don't think anyone wants to play Winthrop right now.

Northern Iowa 57, Iowa 55
An important game for both teams. Northern Iowa has looked very tough early on this season, and definitely seems headed back to the Tournament. Iowa, meanwhile, has really struggled early on. The Big 10 is down this year, so Iowa probably needs to finish in the top four of the conference standings to feel good about a tournament bid. Amazingly, I think we can say the same thing for Nothern Iowa in the Missouri Valley. What has college basketball come to?

#11 LSU 64, #6 Texas A&M 52
Big Baby is back! 24 and 10 for the big fella, and the Tigers are looking like they're getting back into form. Texas A&M feels like they missed an opportunity, of course, but it's no shame to lose a game at one of the top teams in the nation. The Aggies struggled from the field, and they'll have better days. They're still among the best teams in the nation.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

W-14 BP65

Before we get to the BP65, some thoughts on the last 2 days:

#6 North Carolina 75, Kentucky 63
Another solid victory for the Tar Heels. I know that pollsters have trouble getting out of the "social promotion" mindset, but North Carolina would get my #1 vote on Monday. Unfortunately, I don't think they will. Fortunately, this isn't college football, so rankings in December are pretty irrelevant. As for Kentucky, they showed up well. They are playing like a top 25 team, and they showed that they have the athletes (especially on the inside) to bang with any SEC team. They'll be a tough beat for LSU, Florida and Alabama. I still see Kentucky as the second best team in the SEC East.

Xavier 95, Western Carolina 61

Not that this is a marquee win by any means, but just another example of Xavier taking care of business this year. They have a very good core of Juniors and Seniors that seems poised to take the Musketeers back to the tournament. They have a few more shots at good resume builders, as they have a real shot to wrap up a tournament bid even before the regular season ends.

Clemson 74, South Carolina 53
You have to take notice any time an ACC team is 9-0, but Clemson needs to beat a legit team before we can take them too seriously. The Tigers scheduled a patsy out of conference schedule to build team confidence (their best opponent will be Georgia on New Year's Eve), but it just may work. They could very well go 14-0 out of conference. The sort of hype that would create could be a negative in early conference play, but even if they only go 8-8 in the ACC, do you see the selection committee rejecting a 22-8 ACC team? Probably not. Definitely a team to pay attention to.

Depaul 64, #5 Kansas 57
Jayhawk fans expect this by now. They have incredible amounts of talent, but they're just incredibly inconsistent. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, all of this is taken into account in the BP65. You know they're going to have a few more great wins, and few more awful losses. In the end, I still see them as #2 seed. They don't have the consistency for a #1 seed, but just have too much talent to expect them to fall to a #3. They'll jump up and down in the polls and in other bracket predictions, but that's the difference between those predictions and BasketballPredictions. We don't fall prey to the daily hype.

#21 Gonzaga 87, #25 Texas 77
Wow, Gonzaga has looked amazing so far this season. You have to wonder if Mark Few was right when he said that a healthy Heytfelt would have made Gonzaga a real national contender last year. Either way, they have obviously just about wrapped up a tournament spot and are only worried about their seed. Unfortunately, just like Butler, they have no good in-conference losses. It's so difficult to go perfect in conference (like they did last year) so you have to expect that at some point they'll lose a game and drop in the polls. I still see them as a #6 seed right now. As for Texas, they still look like an excellent team. They will likely fall out of the top 25, but they'll be back soon. On any given day, they can have several of their young players look like All-Americans. I still think they're the second best team in the Big 12. Not too much to be ashamed of to lose to this Zags team.

#10 Duke 61, #23 Georgetown 52
Two teams underperforming so far. So was this an example of both teams continuing to struggle, or a turnaround game for both? Honestly, it's hard to tell. It was a messy game, with a lot of turnovers and fairly poor shooting. But I still believe that Duke is Duke, and they're hard to beat in any given game. Unfortuntaely for Georgetown, this was a chance to prove themselves that they desperately needed to take advantage of. The Hoyas are better than they have played so far, but they have to prove it on the court. And they're going to have to do it in the Big East - they can't salvage too much out of the rest of their out of conference schedule.

#22 Wichita State 64, #14 Syracuse 61

Another great win for Wichita State. For all the hype over Butler, the Shockers have been the best mid-major so far this year (other than Gonzaga, a team that is hardly a "mid-major" anymore). In fact, they've almost locked up a tournament bid already. I'd say that they only need a Top Five finish in conference to get a bid. I'm pretty sure that's never been said of a Missouri Valley team on a December 3rd before.

North Dakota State 64, #9 Marquette 60
Marquette was due for a step back. They're a young team that is going to have an off night. The question is how they will bounce back from this. They have a huge game next weekend against Wisconsin that they need to win if they want to stay among the top four seeds in the BP65. No reason for real panic, of course, for a loss against a North Dakota State team that has always been difficult for top teams. They're not an easy beat. Especially when they shoot 48% and you shoot under 36%.



Now, without further ado, the new BP-65. Note that conference champions are now denoted by capital letters with the conference name in parentheses:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Alabama

3. Texas
3. Duke
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Wisconsin

4. Texas
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. UConn
5. Maryland
5. California

6. Syracuse
6. Boston College
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Washington

7. Tennessee
7. WICHITA ST (MVC)
7. Virginia
7. Georgetown

8. Michigan St
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. Georgia Tech
8. Villanova

9. Creighton
9. Oklahoma St
9. Missouri
9. Oregon

10. Missouri St
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. UAB
10. AIR FORCE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

11. Illinois
11. Northern Iowa
11. Arkansas
11. San Diego State

12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. Southern Illinois
12. Clemson
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. ARKON (MAC)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. TENNESSEE TECH (OHIO VALLEY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. FURMAN (SOUTHERN)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)
16. CAL STATE-NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)

Friday, December 01, 2006

Rematch in April?

#6 North Carolina 98, #1 Ohio State 89
Everyone agrees that this was the game of the year so far. And most people who saw the game agree that these are the two best teams in the country. The athleticism on both sides was out of this world. What most amazed me was how both of these teams spent much of the time without anyone older than a sophomore on the floor. Most of the kids on both sides will go pro early, but imagine if all of the kids on both teams agreed to stay in college for all four years. Two or three years from now, they'd actually be good enough to challenge an NBA team. I can't wait to see these two teams hook up again in the NCAA Tournament. If Oden is as good as everyone thinks he'll be, they very well might not hook up again until the NCAA Tournament Finals. North Carolina was #1 in my last BP65, so that obviously won't change. But Ohio State will pick up from #5, it seems clear they'll be good enough for a top seed. They've shown enough consistency to stick around with a top ranking all year.

Missouri 86, Arkansas 64

A real statement win for Mike Anderson and the Missouri program. The best part of it all was who it came against: the school that turned its back on "40 Minutes of Hell" and sent Anderson away to UAB. It was painfully obvious, of course, that Anderson doesn't have the athletes yet to be a real serious contender. His full-court pressing forced Arkansas into dozens of turnovers and rushed shots. But Missouri made plenty of its own mistakes during counter-attacks. They don't seem to have a senior leader who can handle the ball and settle the kids down. When they face a school like Kansas, they're probably going to get creamed. This Missouri team, as currently constituted, would have a much better shot against Texas - a very young team that is inconsistent and makes mistakes. It's too bad that they don't get a home game against Texas - their only matchup of the year will be in Austin. Regardless, Missouri has a shot to finish as high as 4th in the Big 12, which would be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. Give Mike Anderson a few years to bring in some real Big 12 quality athletes (something Missouri is remarkably short of) and the Tigers will be a real force.

Middle Tennessee State 65, Indiana State 58
A bad game for the Indiana State. Not too many people are predicting a run to the Tournament for the Sycamores, but they had a legitimate claim. Indiana State has the talent to finish in the top half of the Missouri Valley, a conference that could get five teams selected again. Up until this point, Indiana State didn't have any marquee wins, but they didn't have any bad losses either. Their one loss was by seven points, at Indiana - nothing to be ashamed of. The Sycamores get two more shots at a solid out-of-conference win. Butler shows up a week, and Pudue comes in just before the end of December. Even with a win in both of those games, neither might end up being a marquee win in March (depending on how Butler and Purdue play the rest of the year). After this loss, Indiana State really needs to finish in the top 3 of the Missouri Valley to be a legitimate at-large team.