Monday, November 29, 2010

UNLV, Notre Dame Win Tournaments

UNLV 71, Virginia Tech 59
UNLV had been shooting really well from outside coming into this game, but they proved that they're more than a streak shooting team by dominating a solid Virginia Tech team even though their shots weren't falling. In fact, it was only some streak outside shooting by Virginia Tech that kept this game competitive. Chase Stanback was strong again, and Tre'Von Willis had his best game since he coming back. The Mountain West is going to be a tight battle all season between UNLV, BYU, New Mexico and San Diego State, but UNLV has looked as good as any of them. They are now 6-0 with a slew of quality wins, and they are continuing their tough schedule with games at Illinois State and Nevada coming up. I know that it's still very early in the season, and the computer ratings need to be taken with a grain of salt, but UNLV's Sagarin PREDICTOR right now is 7th in the nation, and Pomeroy has them 11th. I've been very impressed by them so far, but even I'm still pretty shocked by that. As for Virginia Tech, they were once again doomed by very sloppy ball handling. Their offensive turnover percentage is currently 258th in the nation. They are now 4-2 with four tough home games coming up (Purdue, Virginia, Penn State and Mississippi State).

Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51

As I've already noted several times, the shooting by all teams at the Old Spice Classic was historically bad. We had a game set the record for fewest combined points in the first half of a Division I game.... and then a game that broke that record again. And no team looked worse shooting the ball than Wisconsin, which couldn't hit an outside shot to save their lives all week. But that said, it was worrisome to see Wisconsin's passive offense - they weren't attacking the rim, and it meant that they were settling for the outside shots, and they weren't getting to the line. They only took four free throws the entire game, compared to 25 for Notre Dame. Wisconsin has a fairly easy stretch coming up in their schedule with a lot of home games, so they'll have plenty of time to work this stuff out before Big Ten play begins. As for Notre Dame, there's no question that their starting lineup really impressed at the Old Spice Classic. Their defense has been good and they never miss free throws, so as long as they can keep their stars in the game they're going to be good. The worry is their bench, or more accurately their lack of one. I have to wonder how their starters will hold up over the grind of the Big East regular season while playing such long minutes. Notre Dame is now 7-0 with wins over Wisconsin, California and Georgia. Their next really big test will be December 8th at Kentucky. I will be very interested to see how they play against that much more athletic Kentucky team.

Northwestern 65, Creighton 52
Northwestern has started their season pretty quietly. This is only their fourth game of the season, and the first game against an opponent of any note whatsoever. They've never been a program that plays a lot of big time opponents out-of-conference, so this isn't a big surprise. They will play Georgia Tech tomorrow in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, and they should take care of business there. After that their only real test before Big Ten play begins will be at Madison Square Garden on December 21st, when they'll play either Davidson or St. John's. So they'll head into Big Ten play with a very good record, but a soft record. As for Creighton, it's not a surprise that they'd struggle after P'Allen Stinnett was kicked off the team. They've played two quality teams so far this season and lost to both of them, falling to 4-2 overall. And with BYU and a road game at Nebraska coming up, they could soon be 4-4. The Missouri Valley is off to a bad start this season and will likely be a one-bid conference again, and at this point I'd be shocked if Creighton seriously contends for that bid.

St. John's Rights The Ship

St. John's 67, Arizona State 58
St. John's had been struggling to get much offense going this season, but they began really attacking the rim and blew up for 47 second half points in this game. And after a tough loss on their opening night at Saint Mary's, the Johnnies are back to 4-1 without any team too worrying on the schedule until they play Davidson on December 20th in their final non-conference game. But with the weak schedule (and assuming that St. John's doesn't knock off Duke on January 30th), they're going to need at least a 10-8 Big East record to make the Tournament. The biggest difference in this game was depth. St. John's has a lot of it, and Arizona State's depth is awful. They have some strong starters back from last season, but the bench has produced basically nothing. And it's part of the reason why they're off to a very unimpressive 3-2 start with zero good wins. They next head to Baylor, where they'll probably get slaughtered, before facing a strong Richmond team at home.

Texas A&M 54, #20 Temple 51
Temple's lack of offensive weapons burned them again here for their second loss at the Old Spice Classic. After falling behind by five points at the half they ended up only scoring five points in the first seven minutes of the second half, putting them just a bit too far behind. Temple just doesn't have the ability to score a lot of points in a short period of time, so when they fall behind by too much they really get themselves buried. These two losses are a bit surprising for Temple, but they have plenty of time to regroup. They're only 3-2, but both losses have been quality losses, and they do have wins over Seton Hall and Georgia. They have a road game at Maryland and a home game versus Georgetown coming up - both games are winnable for them. As for Texas A&M, this win helps salvage the Old Spice Classic for them after the loss to Boston College and victory over Manhattan. They have two deceptively tough games coming up against Stephen F Austin and Pacific, and then they also will play Washington and Arkansas before Big 12 play begins. I expect them to lose to Washington, but they'll be favored in every other game. They just have to be careful to take care of business against inferior-but-decent opponents.

Boston College 68, California 46
Once again the shooting stunk in this game. I've never seen an early season tournament ever that has had shooting as bad as this Old Spice Classic. If they don't figure out what's wrong with that gym the elite teams are going to stop coming. Boston College did hit a few straight three-pointers at one point to open up a lead, and Cal's sloppiness (11 steals allowed) finished them off. For Boston College this will be a successful Old Spice Classic. They went 2-1 with two quality wins (Texas A&M and California) and a quality loss (Wisconsin). More importantly they seem to have really bought into Steve Donahue's system, and have got their rotation figured out. They're not particularly talented, and they're very thin, but they're going to be pesky and are a legitimate bubble team. As for Cal, they've fallen back to earth after opening the season with very impressive wins over New Mexico and Temple. They are a young team, though, so we have to expect some fits and starts with them, and they should improve as the season goes along. Their next tough test will be December 4th at Iowa State, and then they will play San Diego State on December 8th.

One Day We'll Have Smarter Sports Writers

I've already talked about the idiocy of sports writers harping on head-to-head being the be-all, end-all many times, so I won't go on that rant again. Here is my most recent rant on the subject, and others are on the left side of the page of this blog under "BP Classics".

With the new Top 25 polls out, Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports is leading the charge on UConn over Michigan State. You can read his whole rant on his twitter page. He's furious that the Associated Press put Michigan State one spot ahead of UConn. It's a good thing he doesn't read me, because I have Michigan State finishing with a 1 seed, and UConn with a 9.

According to Pomeroy's stats, Kentucky has a 94% chance of beating Boston University tomorrow. I assume that if Boston University wins the game, Goodman will flip out if BU isn't ranked ahead of Kentucky in the next poll? Or what about if Virginia knocks off Minnesota (Pomeroy gives Virginia a 12% chance of pulling that upset off)? Of course he won't, because deep down he understands that upsets happen. He just turns his brain off when it comes to highly rated teams.

With UConn, I'm still not totally on board. We see this every year with teams going on a run at some preseason tournament and getting a ton of hype that builds and builds because reality usually doesn't hit until conference play begins in January. And then those teams crash, and we forget all about it and get excited about another next team that pulls a couple of upsets in November, 2011. UConn played great on two straight days in Maui in November, but let's chill out about projecting that to the rest of the season.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Purdue Proves They Were Overrated

Richmond 65, #8 Purdue 54
I never understood why Purdue was ranked 8th in the nation. They were arguably a Top Five team preseason, but it's like a lot of the voters are not aware that Robbie Hummel is out for the season. I don't care how good a team is - you can't lose a potential senior All-American and not have it dramatically affect your play. As well as the top of the Big Ten is playing, there's no guarantee that Purdue is even one of the five best teams in their own conference. I do believe that E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are the best inside-outside duo in the Big Ten, if not the nation, but they didn't get any production from anybody else in this game. Even Moore had a tough game - he was forcing offense because he sensed his team was in trouble, and the shots just weren't falling. Purdue has a lot of talented guards, and Moore is going to have to trust them to do more. Richmond played a good all around game here, but they were probably strongest at defensive rebounding, collecting 80% of rebounds on their defensive end against a Purdue team that had been collecting close to 40% of rebounds on their offensive end coming into this game. Purdue is 5-1 now with double-digit wins over Southern Illinois and Oakland. They now head to Virginia Tech for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. As for Richmond, they now move to 6-1, and that loss at Iona will not look so bad by the end of the season. But they now have a very tough game coming up against Old Dominion, followed by a road game at Arizona State and a home game against VCU.

#6 Kansas 87, Arizona 78
This game was closer than Kansas probably wanted it to be, but they did pass their first test of the season, and should be rounding into form just in time to get Josh Selby eligible in about three weeks. Thomas Robinson and Travis Releford, two players who didn't play much as freshmen, have taken up expanded roles as sophomores and will help Kansas have a really deep bench this season. Mario Little is still finding his way back, and will likely be earning more playing time by the time Josh Selby becomes eligible. At that point, a guy like Jeff Withey (a pretty highly touted recruit out of high school - the top recruit in Arizona's 2008 recruiting class, ironically, before transferring to Kansas) is likely going to be the 11th man. The Jayhawks will play UCLA next, but have Memphis on December 7th, a game that will be a big challenge without Selby. As for Arizona, we need to keep in mind that this is still a very young team - most every key player is a freshman or a sophomore. And Sean Miller is putting together blue chip 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes, so Arizona's future is bright. Whether they'll get back to the Tournament this year is still unclear, however. They next head to Rice, and then have a very winnable home game coming up a week from today against Oklahoma.

BYU 74, Saint Mary's 73
This was a match-up between teams that have arguably two of the ten best homecourt advantages in the nation, which made it interesting that these teams were actually playing halfway across the country on a neutral floor. Jimmer Fredette hit the game winning shot, but with a game this close you never want to try to draw too many conclusions. The impact is primarily with the resumes, where BYU has added yet another nice win and Saint Mary's still has work to do. BYU has wins over Utah State, South Florida and Fresno State to go with this one, and already look pretty safe for the Tournament. They have a tricky road game coming up on Wednesday at Creighton, and still have games against Arizona, UCLA, UTEP and Weber State (a potentially tricky true road game) ahead before Mountain West play begins. Saint Mary's needed this win more because there are no opportunities for good wins in the WCC except their two games per year against Gonzaga. They do have wins over Saint John's and Texas Tech, but neither of those will wow the Selection Committee. If they can't upset San Diego State on the road on Wednesday night then all they'll have left out-of-conference is a road game at Mississippi State on December 30th.

Is Cincy A Serious Bubble Team?

Cincinnati 68, Dayton 34
The Big East has gotten off to a strong start this season, and now has at least 12 teams that have fan bases thinking about the postseason. Cincy has gotten lost in the shuffle because there were not big expectations preseason. Deonta Vaughn and Lance Stephenson are gone, and I've resigned myself to the fact that Yancy Gates will never live up to his potential and play a complete game. The lack of an elite player or go-to scorer is going to hold them back and keep them from finishing too high in the Big East, but their defense has been spectacular so far. As good as their defense is, of course, some of this game was just atrocious shooting by Dayton. They shot 21.7% on their two-point attempts, with only seven shots blocked, which is almost unbelievable. If Dayton could have hit a layup they'd have lost by a lot less than 34, but they were still outplayed, particularly in the backcourt. Cincy came into this game 4-0, but with all four wins coming against cupcakes. Now that they've beaten a real team the question is how they'll respond next to a few decent opponents over the next three weeks: Oklahoma, Wright State, Toledo and Miami of Ohio. As for Dayton, they came into this game 5-0 with a road victory over Ole Miss, fully looking like a team in the mix for one of the top positions in the Atlantic Ten. Dayton fans will have to hope that this game was just a fluke and that they'll bounce right back. An interesting test will be December 11th at Old Dominion, a game that would actually be a fairly big upset if Dayton could pull it off.

#10 Syracuse 80, Georgia Tech 76
Syracuse is in the Top Ten and they're now 6-0, but it's still been a very unimpressive start for them, in my opinion. Coming off consecutive three point victories over two teams (William & Mary and Michigan) that I doubt will be in the RPI Top 100, they now had to squeak by a Georgia Tech team that will be one of the worst in the ACC and has already lost a game by 17 points to Kennesaw State. Once again Fab Melo was effectively a no-show and the team relied heavily on its two most established stars: Rick jackson and Kris Joseph (a combined 29 points and 17 rebounds). They did get some quality minutes off the bench from freshmen Dion Waiters and CJ Fair as well. I still don't see a glaring weakness from the team, and it's possible that they'll round into form as the season goes along, but all of these close victories over mediocre teams are a really bad sign, as anybody that runs a computer rating system will tell you. They have a game against NC State coming up next week, but I'll be very interested to see how they handle Michigan State the following week. Michigan State will try to push them around inside and they'll hope to foul out Rick Jackson, so a lot will fall onto the freshmen. As for Georgia Tech, Brian Oliver has been a bright spot this season, but Daniel Miller hasn't really developed like I thought he would. Glen Rice, Jr. also has not really progressed after what I thought was a fantastic freshman season (the numbers aren't great, but he was just a true offensive energy spark off the bench). As a team they do have a ten point win over UTEP to hang their hat on, but they certainly don't look like an NCAA Tournament team right now. They head next to a tough road game at Northwestern as part of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.

South Carolina 87, Western Kentucky 85, 2OT
South Carolina is now 2-0 in the Darrin Horn Bowl. This game was a battle, and it will help this Gamecocks team develop as they head closer to what will be a fairly difficult SEC East schedule this season. The star of their season so far has been freshman Bruce Ellington, who is leading the team in both points and assists. Ellington was one of the three very good recruits that Darrin Horn brought in this season, but the other two (Damontre Harris and RJ Slawson) are playing more like true freshmen usually play, and have still not made much impact. To be fair, guards always develop much more quickly than big men, so Harris and Slawson could have a huge impact down the road. South Carolina is now 4-1 with the one loss being a very respectable nine point loss at Michigan State. But the weird thing about the SEC this season is that all six teams in the SEC East have looked like Tournament quality teams so far, and zero of the SEC West teams have looked Tournament quality so far. But the SEC East teams all play each other twice, which means that at least one of those six teams is going to lose too many conference games to make the Tournament. So while this is a quality win and South Carolina has a good coach and some young talent that should keep developing, they still have to show me a lot more than a win over Western Kentucky before I put them in the Field of 68. As for Western Kentucky, it's pretty clear right now that they will live and die with their trio of Sergio Kerush, Steffphon Pettigrew and Juan Patillo. In 50 minutes of game time, the three of them sat for a combined ten minutes. They will wear out against elite teams, but against the Sun Belt they should blow out enough teams that they'll be able to keep those three fairly fresh throughout the season.

Butler Shocked At Home

Evansville 71, #23 Butler 68, OT
Evansville is a Missouri Valley Conference team, so they're not a pushover, but they're not expected to be one of the better teams from the conference. But they just kept hanging around in this game, and overcame a double-digit deficit when Butler went through an extended cold stretch beginning late in the first half when they scored 14 points over something like 17 minutes of game time. Butler dominated the boards with their size, but got horrid guard play, which is always going to be a big problem for them since I'm pretty sure that Matt Howard has never played in a collegiate game where he wasn't in foul trouble. They were outplayed by Colt Ryan, whose 14 points on 6-for-15 shooting with six rebounds are actually all near his season average in what has been a strong sophomore season for him. But really, this was just a case of Butler letting an inferior team hang around, missing layups and all manner of other shots to hit just under 33% of their two point attempts (they hit 51% of their two-pointers last season). Butler will fall out of the Top 25 with this loss, and they have games against Duke and Xavier looming. No matter what happens in those games Butler will remain the heavy favorite to retain the Horizon League title, but their NCAA Tournament seed could really begin to drop. As for Evansville, this is a very good win, but it's their only win over a decent team and they are coming off losses to Indiana and Middle Tennessee State. I still think they're destined for a sub-.500 Missouri Valley record.

UTEP 65, Michigan 56
This is going to happen a few more times to Michigan this season. The team just does not grasp the concept that if you're bricking three-pointer after three-pointer you should eventually stop shooting them. In this game they hit a pathetic 5-for-29 behind the arc - and they're going to struggle to beat just about anybody if they're wasting that many possessions. And the thing is, they actually have some good options for attacking the rim. Darius Morris has exploded this season, and he led the team in this game in points (20), rebounds (7), assists (4) and steals (3). Tim Hardaway, Jr. also has played well this season. But teams know that Michigan will just keep launching threes, and a perfect example of Michigan shooting itself in the foot was the performance by Blake McLimans, a 6'10" freshmen who hasn't hit a three-pointer in his entire college career but in eight minutes on the floor managed to go 0-for-4 behind the arc. Those just are shots that shouldn't be taken. This season so far has been John Beilein's worst as coach at Michigan. As for UTEP, it was interesting seeing star Randy Culpepper come off the bench. I'm not clear exactly why he was brought off the bench, but it worked: 24 points on 10-for-16 shooting. UTEP is 4-2 with a couple decent-but-not-too-impressive wins (Michigan, New Mexico State) and both losses coming against marginally decent teams (Georgia Tech, Pacific). They still can get into the at-large discussion, but they've got to play better. Most teams won't give away games like Michigan gave away this one.

Nebraska 60, USC 58
This was a below-the-radar game because neither of these teams is likely to go Dancing, but this was an interesting game to me for a couple of reasons. For one, these are both rebuilding programs that I believe have brighter futures ahead, and it was a chance to view the progress of each. Second, games like this will do a lot for conference computer ratings, and a USC win here would have helped the Pac-10 start to get its computer ratings up closer to the Big Four conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12). And one thing we learned here is that USC is still very young. They blew this game open, with a 20 point first-half lead, but they took their foot off the pedal and let the lead melt away, eventually blowing the entire game. One thing they're really lacking is an offensive playmaker. Kevin O'Neill has had to basically rebuild this team from scratch. Maurice Jones and Bryce Jones are the first two good high school guards he's been able to get, but they're both true freshmen and still finding themselves. The two combined for six assists and five turnovers, which isn't going to get it done. USC had eight assists as a team. It's still early for Pomeroy's stats to be taken too much like gospel, but right now they're ranked the 30th most efficient defense, and the 143rd most efficient offense, which is pretty telling. But they do have Jio Fontan coming soon - I believe that the transfer from Fordham will be eligible to play once the fall semester ends, and he's a very good player. But even with Fontan, I do think that USC is still at least one more year from contending seriously for a Tournament spot. Nebraska likely isn't talented enough to finish better than .500 in what is going to be a pretty good Big 12 this season, but they have found a pretty good offensive big man in 6'11" sophomore Jorge Brian Diaz, who has scored in double-digits in three consecutive games. Nebraska is 4-2 with a couple of decent wins (USC, Hofstra) and two quality losses (Vanderbilt, Davidson). A telling stretch is upcoming for Nebraska: they play nine consecutive home games, against Creighton, TCU, Iowa State and six cupcakes. If Nebraska is truly improved as a team then they should win at least eight of those nine games. If they can achieve that then they'll be 12-3 heading into Big 12 play with some real hope of going 8-8 in the Big 12 and sneaking into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in more than a decade.

W-15 BP68

This is the first BP68 of the season to come after basically every team has played at least one quality opponent. So we know a whole lot more about these teams than we did even one week ago. As always, this is where I believe things will end up on Selection Sunday:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. Ohio State
2. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
2. Kansas State
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)

3. Kansas
3. Syracuse
3. Georgetown
3. Kentucky

4. Baylor
4. Illinois
4. BYU (MWC)
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)

5. Florida
5. North Carolina
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Xavier

6. BUTLER (HORIZON)
6. San Diego State
6. Villanova
6. New Mexico

7. Wisconsin
7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Purdue
7. Texas A&M

8. UNLV
8. West Virginia
8. Virginia Tech
8. UTAH STATE (WAC)

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Vanderbilt
9. Minnesota
9. UConn

10. Missouri
10. California
10. Louisville
10. Marquette

11. Maryland
11. Arizona State
11. Oklahoma State
11. Clemson

12. Florida State
12. Northwestern
12. Saint Mary's
12. NC State
12. Miami (Fl)
12. St. John's

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (AMERICA EAST)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Dayton, Saint Louis, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, VCU, Arizona, UCLA, Mississippi, South Carolina

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Cincinnati, Indiana, George Mason, Central Florida, Southern Miss, UTEP, Tulsa, Creighton, Missouri State, Utah, USC, Georgia, Mississippi State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Virginia, Wake Forest, UMass, Providence, South Florida, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Pacific, Northeastern, UAB, Cleveland State, Rider, Siena, Akron, Kent State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Oregon, Stanford, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Portland, New Mexico State

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Syracuse Barely Survives Michigan

#10 Syracuse 53, Michigan 50
This game will be a learning experience for this very young Syracuse squad. Syracuse may end up a Top Ten team by the end of the season, but right now they're still finding their way and that ranking is insanity. Star freshman Fab Melo was actually benched for most of this game because of the way he was playing, and this Orange team has a short bench even when Melo is playing. The one bright spot was Kris Joseph, who might be establishing himself as the best player on the team, and led all players in this game with 22 points. As for Michigan, I just really have no clue what they were thinking in this game. With seven fewer turnovers and three more offensive rebounds they had ten extra possessions, and teams rarely lose when they have that. But they just launched brick after brick from behind the arc (8-for-32 for the game) instead of attacking a Syracuse team that ended up committing only nine fouls. If you're ever going to attack the rim it should be against a team with a short bench that can't afford to foul. I know that John Beilein likes his teams to take a lot of three pointers, but at some point he's got to understand his opponent and the situation. They should have and would have won this game if his players had attacked the rim. Freshmen Tim Hardaway, Jr. was strong off the dribble in this game, and he can potentially be that spark for Michigan. Syracuse will play Georgia Tech next, but the next game they might realistically lose is a potential look-ahead game against NC State on December 4th, only three days before they'll Michigan State. As for Michigan, they aren't a likely NCAA Tournament team anyway. I'll be more focused on the development of young guards Hardaway and Darius Morris. Both have looked really good so far this season and could help open things up for John Beilein's shooters.

#20 Temple 65, Georgia 58
This game was definitely closer than I thought it would be. I figured Georgia's super-athletic but undisciplined players would wilt against the very fundamental and solid Temple squad. But weird things are going on at this Old Spice Classic, and none of the eight teams can hit shots. Temple also got an uncharacteristically poor game from Juan Fernandez (7 points, 3 assists, 5 turnovers), who otherwise has been very strong so far this season. But a win is a win, and this is a solid victory to follow up the disappointing loss to California. They will play an interesting 5th placed game against Texas A&M on Sunday, and then head to Central Michigan and Maryland. They have three big time opponents remaining out-of-conference (Duke, Villanova, Georgetown). A win against any of those teams along with a solid Atlantic Ten regular season record (something like 11-5 or 12-4) plus a lack of bad losses will be sufficient for an NCAA Tournament bid. As for Georgia, they are going to have to clean things up further to start pulling out these close games. They've played very well so far at the Old Spice Classic, but two close losses against quality opponents and Manhattan as their final opponent means that they won't get anything for their resume at this event. They do have wins over Saint Louis and Colorado, and they'll obviously get plenty of chances for quality wins in the SEC East, but I'd like to see them beat either UAB or Georgia Tech over the next couple of weeks if I'm going to take them too seriously as a potential bubble team.

Saint Mary's 88, Texas Tech 68
To be fair, this game was closer than the final score suggests. Saint Mary's came out white hot from the field, and Texas Tech never really recovered. For the game, the Gaels hit 50% of their threes, 63% of their twos, and 85% of their free throws. But Saint Mary's was the better team and they clearly deserved to win, and I have to imagine that Texas Tech's athletic department won't put up with too many more 20 point losses in virtual home games against mid-major opponents before they make a coaching change. There just is no real positive momentum with the Texas Tech basketball program right now. As for Saint Mary's, they continue to keep developing fresh new talent - Tim Williams was the latest youngster to make a big impression, putting up 20 points and 10 rebounds off of the bench in this game (after averaging 2.6 points and 1.8 rebounds per game last season as a freshman). They are talented, deep, and now 6-0 with wins over St. John's and Texas Tech. Their next big test will be Wednesday night at San Diego State.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Irish Survive Historically Putrid Cal

Notre Dame 57, California 44
There must be something with the rims at the Old Spice Classic. We know that the floor's been coming apart, with those silly advertising stickers they tape on the court coming off, but the shooting by all of the teams at this tournament has been horrible. This game was 21-5 at halftime, which is (depending on how you define Division I) the fewest points that two teams have combined for in the first half of a Division I game. Cal somehow shot 2-for-25 from the field in the first half, which is beyond good defense. Most teams can shoot half court shots better than that. Cal woke up in the second half, but it was too late. The Irish suddenly find themselves 6-0 with wins over Georgia and California, and a chance to play Wisconsin on Sunday. They also have games against Gonzaga and Kentucky before beginning Big East play. As for Cal, they'll have to be disappointed about ruining their strong start (wins over Temple and New Mexico) with such a horrible performance. They will have to make sure not to make the same mistake twice, because their next opponent (Boston College) can beat them if they aren't careful. After that they will next be tested on December 4th at Iowa State.

BYU 77, South Florida 75, 2OT
BYU didn't play well in this game, but in some sense that's what makes this a good win. They were playing on a neutral court against a Big East team and nobody other than Jimmer Fredette could hit a shot (all players other than Jimmer combined for 28% shooting from the field), but they managed to tough out the win. They had 18 offensive rebounds and only five turnovers, which is tremendous. The one shocker was 50% shooting at the free throw line, but when you're cold you're cold. They still don't have a big quality win like San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico have, but they're 5-0 and looking like a serious contender in the Mountain West. As for South Florida, they continue to struggle without Dominique Jones. They are losing close games, but they're still 3-3 with their only wins coming against cupcakes. With a pretty tough upcoming schedule (not a single cupcake remaining, beginning with a Wednesday night game against VCU) they could soon fall so far below .500 that they'll be effectively eliminated from postseason play even before the Big East regular season begins.

Mississippi 84, Penn State 71
Ole Miss got a career game out of Trevor Gaskins (24 points with 6-for-11 shooting behind the arc) to lead them to solid victory over Penn State. This was actually a pretty high quality game, with both teams taking care of the defensive boards, only 18 combined turnovers, and a combined 70% assist/FGM ratio. This is a good bounceback win for the Rebels after falling to Dayton, and they'll get a chance to build on this success Tuesday night at the University of Miami. For Penn State this is a disappointing loss because they don't have a lot of margin of error if they're going to make a run at an at-large bid. They're 4-1 overall, but lack any quality wins. Their next chance will be Wednesday against Maryland.

Say Hello to Tobias Harris

#24 Tennessee 78, #7 Villanova 68
A bunch of freshmen have gotten more hype than Tennessee's Tobias Harris, but at this point has any freshman played better? He has yet to score less than 15 points in a game, and his nine rebounds in this game led all players. Scotty Hopson and Cameron Tatum also played very well for the Vols, scoring 35 points and harassing Villanova's outside shooters into 19% shooting behind the arc. This win will also quiet a lot of Tennessee's critics, which have been calling for Bruce Pearl's ouster and predicting disaster this season. The Vols are now 5-0 with wins over Villanova, VCU and Missouri State. Their next big test will be December 11th at Pittsburgh. For Villanova, once again they live and die by the three. As well as Tennessee played, a hot shooting Villanova team would have won this game easily. It's this inconsistency which makes me doubt their chances of winning enough games to win the Big East, but they've got to at least be in the conversation at this point in the season. They have a pretty easy run between now and the beginning of Big East play, with their only decent opponents being their Philadelphia Big Five rivals.

VCU 89, UCLA 85
It's still hard to believe this even after how bad UCLA was last season, but this was a "take care of business" game for VCU. They're just a better team right now. Their guards won the backcourt battle and forced 21 UCLA turnovers, but the key for VCU was star Jamie Skeen and his ability to mostly neutralize the bigger UCLA front line. VCU's five point loss to Tennessee looks better now that the Vols have knocked off Villanova, and they've also now got wins over UCLA, Wake Forest and Winthrop. The Colonial will be in play for multiple NCAA Tournament bids this season, but VCU will have to continue doing their part by taking care of teams like UCLA. Their next game will be Wednesday night at South Florida. For UCLA, they actually played well in the loss here. Malcolm Lee does look to be back at near full strength, and Tyler Honeycutt is turning into a really nice paint partner for Reeves Nelson. But they still lack a win over a likely RPI Top 100 team, and unless they can pull off a miracle next week at Kansas they'll fall to 3-3. Avoiding bad losses in the month of December will be a key to UCLA's chances of making the Tournament.

Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51
I'm not totally sure that either team really deserved to win this game. Virginia Tech was blown away on the boards and ended up with only 49 shots from the field, hitting 43% on two-pointers, 14% on threes and 65% on free throws. But they won the game because Oklahoma State managed to hit only 30% of their two-point attempts. It might be a little bit hard to play in the Anaheim Convention Center, where it feels like a morgue because the crowds are so small for most of the games. The Hokies are 4-1 with their only loss coming at Kansas State. They will play Purdue at home during the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, a game which is actually winnable for them. Oklahoma State is now also 4-1, but without a quality win yet. They have a tough stretch before Big 12 play begins, including games against Gonzaga, Tulsa, Stanford and Missouri State. And then they begin Big 12 play against Kansas State.

Temple Falters Late Against Cal

California 57, #20 Temple 50
Temple's strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear at this point. They are tremendous defensively, they rebound, and they take of the ball. But they lack scorers, and that means two problems that both flared up last night against Cal. First of all, they are never going to blow quality teams out, they're going to win ugly. Second, when they fall behind late and need a big basket they do not have a go-to player. Up by seven with under eight minutes to go, Temple went ice cold and missed eight consecutive shots from the field during a 16-1 California run. Temple just did not have a player who could get to the rim, and when all you are doing is launching long shots you are bound to have stretches where you go cold. That all said, this is a learning experience for Temple and not a reason to panic. Iit's their only loss, and it's a loss against a pretty feisty Cal team. Temple will now get a chance to bounce back later today against a Georgia team that is perfect for them - undisciplined and raw. They'll then hope to play Texas A&M in their final game of the Old Spice Classic, rather than Manhattan. For Cal, this is a very strong win, particularly coming off a 25 point domination of New Mexico. Washington is the clear favorite in the Pac-10, but the conference is wide open after that. Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State... all of them have a shot to finish second. And I think the Pac-10 will get at least three Tournament teams (after only two last season).

UNLV 80, Tulsa 71
Tulsa lost this game, but I was very impressed with their aggressiveness. UNLV is much more athletic, and they also proved again (as they did against Wisconsin) that they can get white hot from behind the arc (8-for-14 in this game). But Tulsa managed to hang in this game by attacking the rim and getting to the line, which not only gave them a lot of points (26 made free throws), but also slowed down the game. Tulsa falls to 2-2, but they've played a tough schedule and now have to play a Stanford team that they have the ability to beat. They can't afford to lose too many games, even against decent opponents, because the Selection Committee always wants to see very high winning percentages from non-BCS conference potential at-large teams. For UNLV, they are going to have to be careful against a dangerous Murray State team later today. UNLV tends to be loose and undisciplined with the ball, and if their threes don't fall then they could get upset if Murray State can maintain their composure. On Sunday they'll play either Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State. Their remaining schedule is tough, including road games at Louisville, Kansas State, Illinois State, and Nevada. Not to mention what will be a brutal Mountain West schedule. And once again this makes me thankful that college basketball rewards tough schedules, unlike college football which rewards teams for scheduling softer schedules.

Wisconsin 65, Boston College 55
This was not a good match-up for Boston College. As I've already talked about, Boston College is not talented, but they're playing very fundamental, smart basketball. The problem is, nobody out-fundamentals Wisconsin, and the Badgers have a talent level that's beyond what BC has right now. But the match-up was pleasurable to watch, with the two teams combining for 26 fouls and 12 turnovers. I've seen plenty of teams outdo that by themselves in 40 minute games already this season. Wisconsin by themselves committed three turnovers and nine fouls - the best they've looked all season. Wisconsin actually opened up a 22 point lead late in the second half before taking their foot off the pedal and allowing a 15-0 Boston College run that actually forced Wisconsin to hit some free throws in the final minute. They should use that as a learning experience. But for Boston College, this was an encouraging effort. They are under-manned, but Steve Donahue does a really good job of using a zillion substitutions to allow players like Reggie Jackson to play a lot of minutes without ever getting worn down. I still believe that this is a team that will actually get onto the bubble before ending up just a little too short on talent to make the NCAA Tournament. They will play either Cal or Notre Dame on Sunday, and then will have to play an improved Indiana team on Wednesday as part of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. For Wisconsin, this was a nice way to bounce back after a really ugly win over Manhattan. They still have to find more offense outside of Jon Leuer. They are going to see a lot of zones this season that focus on swarming Jon Leuer and forcing somebody else to score.

Sleepers Playing on Thanksgiving

I hope everybody had a wonderful Turkey Day. I watched a lot of sports with my family, and after working off some of Thanksgiving Dinner at the gym this morning I'm ready to talk about three sleeper teams that played yesterday and went 2-1:

Boston College 67, Texas A&M 65
I know that I'm pretty much the only person that considers Boston College a sleeper team, and I understand why others doubt them. They stunk last season, and if anything are even less talented this season. And then they went and lost to Yale, and everybody wrote them off. But here's the thing: their new coaching staff is basically an Ivy League staff. They hired Cornell coach Steve Donahue as the new head coach, and he brought the new Director of Basketball Operations and one of the two assistant coaches with him. And his associate head coach is Joe Jones, who last season was the head coach at Columbia. So this team has an Ivy League mentality, which means they're far improved in the categories that Ivy League teams tend to excel in: free throw shooting, taking care of the ball, defensive rebounding, etc. It's early for Pomeroy stats, but let me throw a few at you: their free throw shooting has moved from 71.6% last season to 80.0% this season. Their turnover percentage is up from 123rd in the nation to 2nd in the nation. Last season they were 26th in the nation in offensive rebounding but only 156th defensively, and this season those numbers have flipped to 272nd in the country and 186th respectively. Remember, teams that are better on the offensive than defensive boards are out-athleting their opponents - teams that are better on the defensive boards are fundamentally sound. So this is why BC is a sleeper. They still probably won't make the Tournament just because their talent level is so low, but they're going to be a bubble team. This is their best win so far this season, and they'll get a chance for a real big win today against Wisconsin. As for Texas A&M, they did a good job of taking advantage of BC's tiny front line, forcing the ball into the paint and dominating the boards on both sides of the floor. But their guard play was poor, including a missed layup by Dash Harris at the buzzer that would have put the game into overtime. This won't be a bad loss for Texas A&M, but the loss robs them of the chance to get a big win today, as they'll be stuck playing Manhattan instead of Wisconsin. They'll have to hope for a decent opponent for their final game at the Old Spice Classic, because they still are looking for an RPI Top 100 win.

Notre Dame 89, Georgia 83, 2OT
Georgia has so much more athleticism and raw talent than Notre Dame that this game felt like a mid-major upset over a BCS power, even though Notre Dame was actually favored coming into it. What I find most interesting with Notre Dame is how identical they seem every single season. Playing the role of Luke Harangody: Tim Abromaitis. Playing the role of Kyle McAlarney: Ben Hansbrough. Playing the role of Tory Jackson: Tyrone Nash. The only shocking thing was Notre Dame's missed free throws here, because they're usually so good. But I take the blame for that, because we turned this game on late in the second half and I jinxed them by telling the people I was with that Notre Dame wouldn't blow their big lead because they never miss clutch free throws. They hit only 69.8% for the game, including 2-for-6 in the final 80 seconds. But as bad as they shot, Georgia was embarrassingly bad, including 2-for-12 as a team in the second half. To be fair to Georgia, a sleeper team in my opinion, Trey Thompkins was playing his first game of the season and this team will be sharper once he really gets going. The SEC is wide open if Georgia can do a better job taking care of the ball and hitting free throws (they're at 61.8% as a team for the season).

Murray State 55, Stanford 52
Anybody who was surprised by this result hasn't been paying attention to college basketball. Murray State is an athletic team that gets a ton of points in transition off of turnovers. Their guards are also pretty good at getting to the rim in the half court. Stanford wasn't ready for the pressure, and they fell behind 11-2 and were down 11 at the half, which was too big of a deficit to make up against Murray State's suffocating half court defense. With 18 turnovers, and the way Murray State grinds the clock, Stanford only got 46 shots from the field and 16 at the line - in all, only 44 possessions that did not end in a turnover. And that's why Murray State will be a dangerous NCAA Tournament team, because if you come out asleep they'll jump out to a quick ten point lead, and a ten point deficit against them is like a 25 point deficit against most teams. This is a quality win for Murray State, and they'll play UNLV today before playing either Virginia Tech or Oklahoma State on Sunday. I don't think they can beat UNLV, but they can definitely beat Va Tech or Okie State. If they can collect two solid wins at the 76 Classic then that can definitely be the difference between a 14 seed in the Tournament or a 12 or 13. As for Stanford, they do have a decent win over Virginia, and they'll have chances for decent wins the rest of the 76 Classic with a game today against Tulsa followed by a possible game against DePaul. I don't think they're likely to be a bubble team this season, but a loss to Murray State doesn't bury them yet.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Happy Turkey Day Everybody

I just wanted to take a moment to wish all of my readers a Happy Turkey Day. Enjoy great basketball and football all day. The Old Spice & 76 Classics both tip off today, and there will be other great college basketball games. And, of course, turkey, cranberry sauce, sweet potatoes and family.

Enjoy the feast. I'll see you all again tomorrow.

UConn Continues Its Amazing Run

UConn 84, #9 Kentucky 67
At some point when a team wins enough games in a row it stops being a fluke. Kemba Walker went for 29 points, and of course was the most impressive player at the Maui Invitational. But lost in this remarkable UConn run is the fact that Alex Oriakhi has completely taken off after a very quiet freshman season. He had his third double-double of the season, following up a 15 point, 17 rebound game against Michigan State with an 18 point, 11 rebound game against Kentucky. You can't be successful at basketball with only one good player, which is why Oriakhi has been nearly as important as Walker so far this season. But at this point, I do want to say that we should cool down the UConn hype. Let's not forget that they barely survived Wichita State in the first round in Maui, and they also struggled a bit with Vermont before that. These wins over Michigan State and Kentucky give their resume a tremendous boost, but I'll be very curious to see how this play carries over to the Big East, particularly considering how soft their schedule is before Big East play begins, meaning that they'll enter conference play very likely with an undefeated record and a ton of confidence. As for Kentucky, they didn't play too badly here. They did a better job of taking care of the ball and the boards, and they are passing the ball better. They do leave Maui with a quality win over Washington, and they can now turn their attention to what should be an interesting game at Chapel Hill on December 4th.

#7 Villanova 82, UCLA 70
Villanova is again a streaky offensive team. When they are struggling they shoot a lot of long jump shots, but when they start scoring they tend to score a whole bunch in a row. Villanova was on fire in this first half here, opening up a 15 point lead, but UCLA got it down to around eight points for much of the latter part of the game and just were unable to complete their comeback. When the shots weren't falling (and they went something like seven minutes in the second half without a field goal) the points came from Corey Fisher, who did a very good job of attacking the basket and getting to the line. They ended up taking and making ten more free throws as a team than UCLA, which was effectively the difference in the game. As for UCLA, they were surely excited to get Malcolm Lee back from his minor injury, and I was also impressed with Reeves Nelson, who seems a lot more athletic than he was last season. UCLA is actually probably the second most talented team in the Pac-10, although they're still very young and at this point are nothing more than a sleeper team. This was Villanova's first legitimate opponent this season, and they will now play Tennessee on Friday in the NIT final. After that they really shouldn't be too tested until they play Temple on December 30th. I'm not sure why Jay Wright wanted such an easy schedule - we've seen so many teams in recent years get punished by the Selection Committee for this. As for UCLA, they should be encouraged by this strong play against a Top Ten ranked team, but have to be careful of a dangerous VCU team in the NIT third-placed game on Friday. They will then head to Kansas for a game on December 2nd, but then shouldn't be tested too badly (other than a home game against BYU) before beginning Pac-10 play.

Utah State 79, Utah 62
The difference in this game was one word: aggression. Utah State earned 39 free throws, and Utah earned 13. The Aggies earned 22 more points at the stripe, more than making up the entire score differential over the Utes. Taj Wesley (21 points, 8 rebounds) had yet another big game for Utah State - with so many post players gone from the WAC he's going to eat that conference alive. A more surprising Utah State star here was Brady Jardine, who had only scored 20 points total in his first three games this season before scoring 20 tonight - 8 of them at the line. Utah State has now gone 3-1 in their Beehive State round robin (BYU, Weber State, Utah, Southern Utah), and now has a few dangerous games ahead before WAC play begins (Northeastern, Georgetown, Long Beach State). They can lose the Georgetown game if they can win the others, avoid bad losses, and dominate the WAC. Although as down as the WAC is this year, I'll be shocked if Utah State doesn't get the auto bid, so they shouldn't need an at-large. For Utah, the prime concern is guard play. The team combined for 14 turnovers to only 7 assists, and obviously was completely unable to get to the free throw line. They're strong defensively as a team, but they're not big enough to make a run at an at-large bid without very strong offensive guard play. Utah is now 3-1, without any big wins, and we'll learn a lot about them over the next couple of weeks when they play Oral Roberts, Fresno State, Bradley, Pepperdine, Michigan and Boise State. A Tournament team should win at least five of those six games.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Big Wins For Duke, Michigan State

#1 Duke 82, #4 Kansas State 68
I've talked many times about how Kansas State lives and dies with the three, and they died here. And while they're always a poor free throw shooting team (66.9% last season) they were atrocious here (47.8% for the game, dropping them to 50.8% for the season). So other than that, Kansas State actually played pretty well here. They had five more offensive rebounds than Duke, which along with seven more turnovers meant that the number of possessions/shots was pretty much equal. And Curtis Kelly is finally back in the swing of things, and played extremely well against a very strong Duke front line (19 points on 8-for-11 shooting, along with six rebounds). Kansas State fans should not be distraught about a start to the season that includes wins over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga, with the only loss coming to Duke. Their next test will be December 3rd at Washington State, and then they'll play at Florida on December 18th. For Duke, the high point of this game was Kyrie Irving's ability to get to the basket at will, which opens things up for the shooters, including Andre Dawkins (3-for-3 behind the arc). When Seth Curry really gets going, Duke is probably going to have the best backcourt in the nation. It doesn't get any easier for them either - over the next ten days they'll play Oregon, Michigan State and Butler.

#2 Michigan State 76, #11 Washington 71
The crazy thing about these early season tournaments is that one of these two teams was guaranteed to walk out of this game with losses on consecutive days. Michigan State played much better than they did against UConn - they showed much more energy and aggressiveness. Kalin Lucas missed the last couple of minutes with an injury, and obviously that could be a big problem, but he did limp all the way to the locker room and it doesn't appear to be too bad. Michigan State has struggled so far this season, but let's keep in mind that Michigan State has a history of starting seasons slow and finishing strong. Let's also remember that Michigan State had a lot of injury problems during the offseason, and many of those players are still finding their way back into the groove of things. While they'll drop from #2 in the polls after the UConn loss, I still think they'll end up being the second best team in the nation by the end of the year. As for Washington, they're going to be spending a lot of time thinking about what could have been with two consecutive very tough losses against teams ranked in the Top Ten. Isaiah Thomas and Abdul Gaddy really struggled this entire week, and Venoy Overton once again got himself in really bad foul trouble. Washington is a team that has Final Four talent, but they haven't gotten anywhere near to maximizing their abilities yet. I still view them as the solid favorites to win the Pac-10. They're too talented and experienced to not win a Pac-10 conference that will be down again.

#24 Tennesee77, VCU 72
Tennessee has been shaky in the early going this season, but they've survived each of their games and are now 4-0 with a couple of quality wins (VCU, Missouri State). The difference in the game was Tennessee's length and athleticism, which really bothered VCU's shooters. Jamie Skeen (12 points, 16 rebounds) was the star for VCU, and he'll be a key player when they move to the Colonial regular season and get to play smaller teams than Tennessee. Tennessee will next play the winner of Villanova vs UCLA. They'll head to Pittsburgh on December 11th. For VCU, they'll rue this loss, but it won't be a bad loss and they've already beaten Wake Forest and Winthrop, with another game on Friday against the loser of Villanova vs UCLA. And they still have a bunch more tough games before they begin Colonial play (South Florida, Richmond, UAB being the biggest), so they'll be able to build an at-large quality resume. Right now Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them just outside the Top 50 in the nation, so they should be in the bubble discussion all season.

UConn Shocks Michigan State

Connecticut 70, #2 Michigan State 67
This was one of the most shocking results of the early season. Not just because UConn beat Michigan State, but because they actually earned it. It's one thing if a team pulls off an upset by hitting a zillion threes, or because the other team gives the game away, but UConn won this game by dominating the boards, taking care of the ball, and having a player (Kemba Walker) who was unstoppable offensively on important possessions. Other than Draymond Green, none of the other Michigan State players were able to rebound - as a whole they were dominated by Alex Oriakhi (9 offensive rebounds by himself). For Michigan State, the real question is how they'll bounce back. As I type this they are tipping off against Washington. We'll see if this was a fluke or a trend. For UConn, again, we need to see them do this again (they'll get a chance tonight against Kentucky). And once again, we'll find out if this was a fluke or a trend for UConn. But if Kemba Walker can continue the play he's had in Maui, he is a potential All-American. He's been spectacular.

#9 Kentucky 74, #11 Washington 67
Kentucky is never going to play fundamental basketball - they have too many freshmen. But they managed to make this game a mess, and that worked into their favor. There were nearly twice as many turnovers as assists in the game, and both teams combined to shoot under 40% from the field (including 20% behind the arc). I watched a lot of this game, and for a long while it seemed like there were never ten players on the same half of the floor. But I have to say that I was really impressed with the composure of the Kentucky players handling and beating a really good, really experienced Washington team. Isaiah Thomas really struggled, and it really hurt the Huskies when their best defender (Venoy Overton) fouled out in only 21 minutes, but this was still a very good performance by Kentucky. I was convinced that Kentucky was over-ranked at 9th in the nation, but now I'm not certain. I still think they have too many freshmen in their rotation to make a Final Four, but they have to be the SEC favorites right now. Kentucky plays UConn tonight, and Washington will play Michigan State (a fairly titanic battle for a consolation game of any tournament).

#23 Butler 70, Siena 57
For those questioning Butler after the thumping they got at the hands of Louisville, this was a quality way for them to bounce back. This was a true road game at a Siena team that, while not as strong as the past two seasons, is one of the favorites to win the MAAC and has a good chance to be an RPI Top 100 team again. The biggest difference in this game was production from players other than Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack. They got it from Shawn Vanzant (12 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists) and Andrew Smith (8 points, 7 rebounds). Andrew Smith is particularly important because of the loss of Gordon Hayward, which left Matt Howard as the only key returner over 6'3". Andrew Smith played lightly last season, but back in April in my Horizon League preview I mentioned him as the most likely post player to step up and play a major role in 2010-11. Khyle Marshall, a 6'7" freshman, will also earn big minutes and certainly has a higher ceiling than Smith, but he still has a lot of developing to do. At this point, Smith appears more reliable. Butler's schedule doesn't get much easier. In the next few weeks they'll play Evansville, Duke, Xavier, Stanford and Utah. For Siena, they'll be disappointed with the loss, but in all honestly their out-of-conference resume isn't as important as it was the past two years, when it was assumed they'd win the MAAC and they were playing for Tournament seed. This season they are not even my pick to win the MAAC, so their top focus has to be just finding a way to win the conference to get back to the Big Dance with any seed. This will be a good learning experience for them.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Duke Survives Their First Test

#1 Duke 82, Marquette 77
Duke spent the first three games of this season destroying inferior foes, and this was the first team to actually put up a fight against them. And Marquette played really well here. What most impressed me was that they fought to a draw on the board against a much larger Duke team. That has to be a concern for a Duke team that was such a good rebounding team last season. Only Mason Plumlee (12 rebounds, including six on offense) showed fight on the boards. This game will also be a learning experience for star freshman Kyrie Irving, who struggled with Marquette's perimeter pressure and committed five turnovers. In the long run I don't think there's too much reason for Duke to worry about this close game - they're still the best team in the country. Nobody blows out every team they play. For Marquette, they'll be disappointed to play so well but to still come up short. They'll have to avoid a letdown on Saturday at UW-Milwaukee. Their next tough game after that will be December 11th at home against Wisconsin.

Old Dominion 67, Xavier 58
Old Dominion doesn't win games in style, but they have a system that works for them. They play stout defense and they rebound the ball, and that's a formula for a lot of wins. They had a tough three point loss to Georgetown to start the season, but they've now had two straight strong wins over Clemson and Xavier. They still have out-of-conference games remaining against Richmond, Dayton and Missouri. For Xavier, this hasn't been a strong start to the year, but this is only their first loss. But with only one game against Temple, and no other team in the Atlantic Ten likely to get ranked, Xavier needs a big win out-of-conference. Their chances will come in December against Butler, Gonzaga and Florida.

#3 Kansas State 81, #12 Gonzaga 64
A lot of teams live and die by the three, but very few teams have the ability hit threes in bunches like Kansas State does. They blew this game open by hitting 9 of their first 13 threes, and it completely rattled Gonzaga. The Zags played awful after that initial shock - I've never seen them miss so many layups. Elias Harris, Demetri Goodson, Steven Gray and Robert Sacre are Gonzaga's four stars, and they combined to shoot 11-for-38. Gonzaga's two losses this season have come to San Deigo State and Kansas State, which is nothing to be ashamed of, but Gonzaga can't afford to not collect a big scalp out-of-conference. Their remaining big time opponents are Illinois, Baylor and Memphis, and they also will play Xavier, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State. The Illinois game is up first, on December 4th. As for Kansas State, they finally got Curtis Kelly back from suspension, and freshman Will Spradling continues to play really well this season. They're 4-0 and clearly look like they'll be part of a really fun Big 12 conference battle between them, Baylor, Texas and Kansas. They play Washington State on December 3rd, but shouldn't be too seriously tested again until they head to Florida on December 14th.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Minnesota Gets Another Big Win

#17 Minnesota 74, West Virginia 70
You can make the argument that no team is off to a stronger start to their resume this season than Minnesota. They are 5-0 with wins over West Virginia, North Carolina, Western Kentucky, Siena and Wofford - those might all end up being RPI Top 100 teams... and their primary playmaker (Devoe Joseph) hasn't even seen the court during a game yet. Trevor Mbakwe, the transfer from Marquette, has been a tremendous addition. The Gophers already had a ton of size with guys like Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson, but Mbakwe is a far more athletic front court player than either of them, which gives Minnesota the chance to turn up the tempo and stay strong in the paint even against shorter, more athletic teams. But that said, I need to throw a little bit of cold water on any Minnesota Big Ten title talk - the fact is that they have been an up-and-down team as long as Tubby Smith as been there, and they still need to prove that they won't have a bunch of letdown games this season. Last season they beat Butler, Ohio State, Purdue and Wisconsin, but they also lost to Portland, Indiana and Michigan (at home). The Gophers are going to leave Puerto Rico with a ton of confidence. Let's see what they do with it. For West Virginia, this won't be a bad loss, but they again lack much scoring outside of Casey Mitchell. Their offense is overall fairly efficient, but they lack go-to scorers and creators when they need a basket, and that will be a problem in tight Big East games. They will next be tested on December 4th at the University of Miami.

UConn 83, Wichita State 79
Wichita State's players and coaches are going to spend a lot of time thinking about how they let this one get away. They had a 9 point lead with under ten minutes left in the game, and they allowed Kemba Walker to just take over. They kept trying to guard him one-on-one and just couldn't. I know that they like to play man-to-man, but you've got to think about going to a zone when a player is scorching you for 29 points in a half. Alex Oriakhi (12 points, 7 rebounds) was the only other UConn starter to do much. Roscoe Smith has been playing very well of the bench as well, and has possibly been the best of UConn's strong freshman class. The Huskies are 3-0, and playing well in comparison to some of their competitors in the middle of the Big East. They'll get a chance to really make a splash (although I doubt it) tomorrow night against Michigan State. For Wichita State, this loss is most disappointing because it throws them into the consolation bracket and severely damages their chances of collecting a big win at the Maui Invitational. Their next game will be a no-win situation against Chaminade, and they'll have to hope for a decent opponent in their final game (either Virginia, Washington or Oklahoma).

Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58, OT
Seton Hall has to learn to score without Jeremy Hazell, who will be out for another six weeks or so. They managed just 19 first half points and ended up with 20 turnovers, 2-for-21 shooting behind the arc, and another disappointing loss to start this season. They're now 2-3 on the season, and while none of the losses are bad losses, at some point you've got to beat a good team. In the Big East, teams always have a chance to work their way back onto the bubble by winning a few games in a row, but I haven't seen anything yet that suggests they have that in them. For Clemson, this was a solid way to bounce back from a tough one-point loss to Old Dominion. They're quietly 4-1, and have some winnable games against quality opponents over the next couple of weeks (vs Michigan, at South Carolina, at Florida State).

North Carolina Still lacks An Identity

Vanderbilt 72, #25 North Carolina 65
Vanderbilt opened up a 14 point first half lead before the Tar Heels closed the entire deficit, but they faltered down the stretch and lost their second straight game in Puerto Rico. The game was a mess with 43 turnovers, 44 made baskets and 45 fouls. Jeffery Taylor bounced back after fouling out in his previous game, with 15 points and 7 rebounds. Sophomore Lance Goulbourne provided 20 strong minutes off the bench as well. But for me, the story is that North Carolina still seems not to have figured out a lot of the problems that tanked last season. I watch this team and every possession I don't know what to expect - who the leader is, who the creator will be, where the ball is going. Tyler Zeller is a tremendous interior scorer, Harrison Barnes is a tremendous athlete and overall talent, and Dexter Strickland can be a menace in an uptempo game. But there's no rhyme or reason to how each of these players is used. And Larry Drew III continues to be a disaster as a point guard (he had one assist in 23 minutes in this game). North Carolina is one of the ten most talented teams in the nation, but there's no reason that they can't repeat last season if Roy Williams doesn't clean this up. For Vandy this was a nice way to bounce back from a tough loss to West Virginia. They are a legitimate contender in the SEC at this point. Their next really tough game will be December 8th at Missouri.

Wofford 82, George Mason 79, OT
The 22 points that Jamar Diggs scored for Wofford don't begin to describe how much he dominated this game. He was able to beat his man at will, and George Mason was forced to dedicate their entire defense to stopping him. On seemingly every key possession it was him versus all five George Mason defenders, and he usually won. Star Noah Dahlman fouled out without making much of an impression in the game, but it almost didn't matter. For George Mason, it had to be frustrating to get torched by Wofford's guards after the way they dominated the boards (they had a remarkable offensive rebounding percentage of 61%). This game also meant a lot more for them than it does for Wofford, a team that will contend for the SoCon title but will likely not contend for an at-large bid. George Mason was looking like an at-large team with double-digit wins over Harvard and Charlotte, but they've followed that up with disappointing losses to NC State and now Wofford. Without a particularly tough opponent for approximately a month, George Mason needs to just start rattling off wins if they're going to get back into the bubble picture.

#16 Georgetown 82, NC State 67
I didn't think this game would be particularly close with Tracy Smith on the shelf, so it caught my attention when NC State actually had a one point lead early in the second half. But a 15-0 Georgetown run put this game away. Once again John Thompson III went with a very short bench, even though he's got some young talent he can tap that isn't playing - I have to wonder if he'll go deeper into his talent when he starts going through the grind of the Big East season. But despite some fits and starts, Georgetown is now 5-0 with three of those wins coming off teams that have a good shot of being RPI Top 100 teams (Old Dominion, NC State and Wofford). Their next big test will be next Tuesday night at Missouri. As for NC State, they have a bunch of really nice young talent, but the injury to Tracy Smith is doing a lot of damage to their at-large hopes. He is expected to be out a couple more weeks, which means that he'll miss the Wisconsin and Syracuse games. But they can survive losses to Georgetown, Wisconsin and Syracuse if they can avoid bad losses, because they always have a chance to earn an at-large bid with a full strength team during ACC play.

Miami Stumbles Against Rutgers

Rutgers 61, Miami (Fl) 45
The Miami Hurricanes must have been out partying last night, or were drugged during the pre-game meal, because they couldn't have possibly played worse than they did here. To pick on one random player: Malcolm Grant managed to shoot 1-for-8, collecting 3 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist and 7 turnovers. As a team they had 5 assists and 17 turnovers, and shot 29.2% from the field. The only Miami player who had a decent game was Reggie Johnson, who collected seven offensive rebounds against an undersized Rutgers team, but he isn't athletic enough to be a scoring force, and Miami's guards tend not to involve him much in the offense. Rutgers actually didn't play that well despite this big winning margin: 43% shooting (31% behind the arc), 12 turnovers and a loss on the boards. But they played well enough to win with Miami chucking up bricks all game. Miami didn't look impressive when I watched them play Memphis, and they were further exposed here. Maybe they got just a little bit too much hype preseason and they need this reality check to show more maturity on the floor. Their next test will be November 30th against Ole Miss. As for Rutgers, this win proves that they won't be quite as putrid as some had feared, but they're still another recruiting class or two from being able to get out of the bottom tier of the Big East.

#19 Memphis 70, LSU 61
The Rutgers upset over the University of Miami means that Memphis's win over the Hurricanes isn't as impressive as was originally thought. And considering how tight that game was, Memphis needs a big win to re-establish themselves as the dominant force in Conference USA. This wasn't such a performance. They won the game, but against an LSU team devoid of blue chip talent. And this was another ugly game for Memphis: 16 turnovers vs 9 assists, and 27 personal fouls. They are very talented, but they're going to have to work on their offensive teamwork. But Memphis is now 4-0 and should not be too seriously tested until a December 7th game at Kansas. The only game that sticks out as a potential stumbling block is Western Kentucky on December 4th. LSU's upcoming opponents are Centenary, South Alabama and Houston.

Iowa State 91, Creighton 88
Greg McDermott's first game back at Iowa State after bolting for Creighton this past offseason ended up with a very controversial ending. Iowa State's Jamie Vanderbeken hit a three-pointer at the buzzer for the win, but many people believe it came after the buzzer. Supposedly there was a picture taken that shows the buzzer already on with the ball still in his hand, but the game wasn't televised so an official replay was not possible. But it was fitting that this game came down to a three-pointer, because it was basically a three-point contest the whole way. Iowa State hit 13-for-26 behind the arc, Creighton hit 14-for-27. Creighton actually shot better behind the arc than inside it. This game probably meant more for Creighton, a team that is likely going to be in a fight for the Missouri Valley crown as well as for an at-large bid. They don't have any nice wins yet to balance this loss, but they'll get some chances soon. They head to Northwestern on Sunday night, and they'll also play BYU and Nebraska during the first week of December. Iowa State wasn't expected to do much of anything this season, but you can't discount their relatively strong start (4-0 with this win plus three blowouts against weak teams). We'll learn more about them on December 1st when they head to Northern Iowa, and three days later when they play California.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

California Dominates New Mexico

California 89, New Mexico 64
After how strong New Mexico had looked in a blowout victory of Arizona State, this was a pretty surprising result. And this final score was no fluke: California earned 12 extra shots from the field, and also got better shots that were closer to the basket (New Mexico took 37% of their shots behind the arc, hit 35% of their two-point attempts, and had ten assists; for California, those numbers were 33%, 61% and 18). With such a senior-heavy team last season, California was going to need a whole bunch of good new players to succeed, and so far they've had that. Jorge Gutierrez is scoring 19.0 points per game so far this season after averaging 5.5 per game last season, and Cal's other two stars in this game (Harper Kamp and Gary Franklin) didn't even play on the team last season. Franklin is a freshman, and Kamp redshirted last season while recovering from an injury. We'll see if this result was a fluke or a trend next week at the Old Spice Classic, where they open up against Temple. As for New Mexico, it's fair to point out that their entire front line got into foul trouble in this game, which was a big reason that they couldn't get the ball into the paint. They still have that nice win over Arizona State, and have a few more decent opponents coming up in the next two weeks (San Diego, Southern Illinois, New Mexico State).

Georgia 61, Saint Louis 59

Saint Louis will get a little bit of slack from the Selection Committee if they get Kwamain Mitchell back for the spring semester, but there's only so much slack that can be given. The loss of Willie Reed is absolutely killing them on the boards, and the continued development of Rob Loe and Cory Remekun will be a big part of Saint Louis trying to save what originally looked to be a very promising season. The Billikens next play Tennessee State on Tuesday, and then play IUPUI on Saturday. As for Georgia, they are quietly off to a really strong start. They're 3-0 with wins over Colorado and Saint Louis, and they're still without their best player (Trey Thompkins), who could actually be back for their next game against Notre Dame on Thanksgiving, in the opening round of the Old Spice Classic. It's still early, but don't sleep on Georgia being a very realistic bubble team.

Indiana 67, Evansville 54
Speaking of sleeper teams, Indiana now has a double-digit over a Missouri Valley team to go with a 23 point win over Wright State. Maurice Creek looks to be almost back to 100%, leading the Hoosiers with 19 points and hitting all four of the team's three-pointers. They're usually a fairly good three-point shooting team, so that's something of a surprise. The Hoosiers will next be tested at Boston College on December 1st. As for Evansville, they were not expected to be a real factor in the Missouri Valley, and they haven't given any evidence yet that anybody was wrong about them. But it's got to be bothersome to Missouri Valley fans how poorly the conference is playing so far this season. Last decade, when the Missouri Valley was in its glory years, even the teams near the bottom of the conference were at least fiesty out-of-conference. In 2005-06, for example, Drake finished 7th out of 10 teams with a 5-13 conference record, but still was ranked among the Top 150 teams in the nation by Sagarin and Pomeroy, and beat Detroit and TCU and only lost by five points to an Iowa team that ended up earning a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This year the majority of the Missouri Valley has just been just rolling over against quality teams, like Evansville did here.

W-16 BP68

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
2. Ohio State
2. Kansas State
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)

3. Syracuse
3. Kansas
3. Georgetown
3. Kentucky

4. Baylor
4. Illinois
4. BYU (MWC)
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)

5. Florida
5. North Carolina
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Xavier

6. BUTLER (HORIZON)
6. New Mexico
6. Purdue
6. Wisconsin

7. San Diego State
7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Villanova
7. Texas A&M

8. UNLV
8. West Virginia
8. Virginia Tech
8. UTAH STATE (WAC)

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Missouri
9. Louisville
9. Vanderbilt

10. Maryland
10. Arizona State
10. Oklahoma State
10. Minnesota

11. Marquette
11. California
11. Northwestern
11. NC State

12. Miami (Fl)
12. Clemson
12. UTEP
12. Florida State
12. Mississippi
12. St. John's

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (AMERICA EAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Dayton, Saint Louis, Boston College, UConn, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, VCU, Arizona, UCLA, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Georgia Tech, Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Indiana, Penn State, George Mason, Central Florida, Southern Miss, Creighton, Missouri State, Colorado State, Utah, USC, Washington State, Georgia, Mississippi State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Virginia, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Providence, South Florida, Michigan, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, UC Santa Barbara, Pacific, Northeastern, UAB, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Wright State, Princeton, St. Peter's, Fairfield, Siena, Akron, Kent State, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Oregon, Stanford, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Portland, Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico State

Saturday, November 20, 2010

UNLV Shoots Lights Out Over Wisconsin

UNLV 68, #25 Wisconsin 65
This was a game between two very good teams that could have been really fun if the reffing hadn't been awful. In the first half they were calling fouls whenever somebody breathed too hard, and in the second half they let both teams maul each other without repercussion. For UNLV, this will be a very good victory for their resume, as they collect yet another big scalp for the Mountain West. They now head off to the 76 Classic where they'll open against Tulsa. As for Wisconsin, they shouldn't be discouraged by this loss. Despite a poor game from star Jon Leuer (3-for-11 shooting, 4 rebounds) they actually out-played a borderline Top 25 team on the road. If not for lights-out shooting from Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield (a combined 8-for-13 behind the arc) the game wouldn't even have been that close. The biggest worry for Wisconsin, though, is exactly what I figured it would be coming into the season - guard depth. Rob Wilson might be the answer once he fully returns from his injury. Jordan Taylor is one of the best point guards in the nation, but he can't play 40 minutes every game - he was completely gassed at the end of this one. The Badgers next head off to the Old Spice Classic, which doesn't have a field as strong as it did last seaso, so Wisconsin might be favored in every game that they play there. But they just need to keep playing solid teams to get ready for what will be brutal season in the Big Ten, a conference that might have six of the 25 best teams in the nation.

Bradley 64, USC 63
It's not clear yet if this game had any meaning. At this point I don't expect either of these teams to make the Tournament. But if either of these programs is going to make a run, this was the type of game they'd like to win. Neither of these teams had played a good team yet, and it showed with a very ugly game: 39 turnovers vs 46 made shots, 59% combined free throw shooting, etc. In the end Bradley's depth was probably the difference, as Kevin O'Neill stuck with a seven man rotation while Bradley was able to continually bring fresh bodies into the game, allowing them to overcome an early second half deficit to nab the narrow win. Bradly is now 4-0, though it has come against a soft schedule. They actually have put together a weak schedule overall, and considering the fact that the Missouri Valley doesn't look to have any elite teams this season, Bradley almost has to accept right now that they won't collect any big scalps this season (unless they pull the shock of the month at Duke in December). They're going to have to win a ton of games this season to earn an at-large bid without any big wins. As for USC, they just don't have enough Pac-10 quality talent right now, and this loss comes after a 20 point thumping at the hands of Rider. Even though the Pac-10 is down, USC will still not be a factor.

Dayton 78, Ole Miss 71, OT
The SEC West looked to finally have a solid win after really putrid play the first couple weeks of this season, but Ole Miss blew a 16 point lead (including a double-digit lead with under eight minutes to go) and fell in overtime to Dayton. They actually should have won this game, but they fell in love with three-pointers, and bricked their way to a 7-for-29 performance. If they'd just attacked the rim they probably would have won the game. They've actually probably been the least-putrid team in the SEC West this season, with this performance coming off a quality 16-point win over Murray State. We are going to learn a lot about them in the next couple of weeks when they play Penn State, Miami (Fl) and Southern Miss. A Tournament team should win at least two of those, but there might not be any Tournament teams from the SEC West. Dayton, despite the win, had a pretty disappointing game. The one bright spot was Josh Parker, the transfer from Drake who has played really well so far and has helped fill a lot of the holes in the backcourt that Dayton has after so many graduations in 2010. The Flyers are now 3-0, and looking pretty good when you consider that the rest of the Atlantic Ten (other than Temple) has been pretty disappointing so far. Dayton could still be one of the four or five best teams in the conference. Their next tough test will be at Cincinnati next Saturday.

Minnesota Upsets North Carolina

Minnesota 72, #8 North Carolina
It's a good thing that the mainstream media has college football and the NFL to focus on, because otherwise this game would have been overblown and taken way out of proportion. The big story was superfrosh Harrison Barnes, who looked dominant against the inferior teams that UNC opened against, but was completely shut down here with 0-for-12 shooting. But the fact is that people need to relax about that result. Every freshman is going to have a bad game or two, and for Barnes this was his first taste of big time college basketball. After rolling through bad teams that had nobody who could body him up, he suddenly had to face a gigantic Minnesota front line that pushed him around. Even in the ACC he'll rarely face another frontcourt this big and strong. This game will be a learning experience for him. To me, the bigger worry for UNC is Larry Drew III, who still hasn't really learned how to play point guard. North Carolina might want to lower his minutes, hoping that a three-guard lineup with three of the other guards (I still love Dexter Strickland and think he's one of the best shooting guards in the ACC) will be enough ball handling. Drew just isn't good enough to be a starting point guard on a Top Ten team. As for Minnesota, they obviously got UNC at the right time. I think North Carolina would win this game easily if it was played in March. But this will be a quality resume-building win for a Minnesota team that already looks primed to break into the upper tier of the Big Ten. Still without Devoe Joseph, it will be particularly impressive if the Gophers can win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off over West Virginia tomorrow evening.

Tulsa 62, Missouri State 50
Tulsa bounced back from a disappointing opening night loss to Oral Roberts with a solid victory here. They played suffocating defense, holding Missouri State to 28% shooting for the game (including only 31% on two-pointers). The conventional wisdom was that Tulsa would drop off a lot this season without Jerome Jordan, but Steven Idlet has filled a lot of that void (even though he was fairly quiet in this particular game), and the team's strength last season was defense anyway. I don't think Tulsa is a Tournament team, but I wouldn't be shocked if they keep themselves on the bubble into March. As for Missouri State, this isn't the first time their offense has looked bad this season, which is a surprise after how efficient they were last season. Obviously stats are inaccurate and don't mean much this early in the season, but so far Missouri State is 247th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, compared to 75th in the nation last season. With almost all of their best offensive players back, there's no reason for them to be this bad. With losses already to Tennessee and Tulsa, the only remaining quality out-of-conference opponents for Missouri State will be Oklahoma State and Saint Louis.

Arizona State 69, UAB 66
This was a tight game the entire way, and the game ended up coming down to a Ty Abbott three-pointer for the win with 2.2 seconds remaining. Trent Lockett continued his strong start, but Arizona State is still looking very unimpressive in the paint. They were outrebounded by an undersized UAB team in this game. The Sun Devils now head off to the Great Alaska Shootout, but it's a weak field and their only real quality opponent could be St. John's, a team they could draw in the finals. They also head to Baylor on December 2nd, but the way things look right now I would expect Arizona State to get blown off the boards there. As for UAB, they again have a very short rotation. It's like Mike Davis would get an allergic reaction if he ever played nine different guys in the same game. This was their first decent opponent of the season, but they'll have a bunch more over the next few weeks (South Alabama, Georgia, Kent State, VCU).

Ashton Gibbs Shoots Pitt Past Texas

#4 Pittsburgh 68, #22 Texas 66
Pitt has earned their early season ranking with this very impressive win over a Texas team that I expect to finish the season in the Top Ten. The star for Pitt was Ashton Gibbs, who hit several big shots in succession before Rick Barnes realized that he should have his best defender (Dogus Balbay) go and deny the opponents' best player the ball the way Balbay shut down Demetri McCamey of Illinois. This game could potentially have implications for the 1 seeds in Selection Sunday, although obviously it will be the in-conference performances by each of these teams that will matter a lot more in the long run. Despite this result, I agree with Seth Davis that Texas has much more room to grow with how much raw, young talent they've got. Tristan Thompson in particularly has a ton of room to grow, and could eventually be a defensive force in the paint with his length. I'm going to suggest that you start clearing out your schedule already for February 12th and March 5th when Texas plays Baylor - those games will be really fun to watch. Texas now has a few easy games before heading to North Carolina and Michigan State just before Christmas. Pitt actually has a really easy schedule for quite some time, and don't be surprised to see them among the final undefeated teams this season.

Seton Hall 83, Alabama 78
A pyrrhic victory for Seton Hall. The win over Alabama is nice, but nothing to write home about considering that they might not even be an RPI Top 100 team by the end of the season. And the victory came at a huge cost - star Jeremy Hazell will be out for 4-to-6 weeks with a broken bone in his left wrist. He will likely be gone for the rest of their out-of-conference games, where there are quite a few potential remaining land mines (vs Xavier, at Arkansas, vs Dayton, vs Richmond). And this injury might bleed into the start of the Big East season. If Seton Hall makes the Tournament they're going to have to earn it in Big East play. As for Alabama, they have to immediately turn around and be ready for a game against a poor Iowa team that tips off in about seven hours. The SEC West is so putrid that nobody is out of the race (except perhaps Auburn, a team that is so bad it's embarrassing), but if Alabama wants to be taken seriously they've got to take care of Iowa. Don't sleep on a potential game two days from now against Long Beach State, a team that could be one of the 100 best in the country.

Western Kentucky 62, Hofstra 60
I just want to take a brief moment to complain about announcers. I know that this game didn't get anywhere near the best announcers that ESPN has, but I had flipped on this game for the finish, and Western Kentucky hit a three while down by four points with 35 seconds left. WKU then pressed, stole the ball and scored a basket to go up by one - the winning basket as it turned out. But during that entire play the announcer was explaining some long story about what he thought should happen, talking over all of the action. If there's one message I have for announcers, it's to talk less. Listen to the great announcers like Vin Scully and the way they let the game breathe - it's okay if all we hear for a split second is the crowd and the noise of the game. Nothing you are going to say is worth talking over important plays. That said, it was a good night for Western Kentucky with a nice win followed up by the Minnesota loss looking much better after the Gophers beat UNC. Western Kentucky now heads off to a very intriguing mid-major match-up against Davidson tomorrow afternoon. As for Hofstra, they're off to a disappointing start with this loss coming one day after a 44 point pummeling at the hands of North Carolina. As strong as Old Dominion, VCU and George Mason have looked, Hofstra doesn't look at all like a competitor in the Colonial.

West Virginia A Big East Sleeper?

West Virginia 74, Vanderbilt 71
This was a game so far below the radar that it didn't even get mentioned on Sportscenter this morning, but I expect both of these to be Tournament teams so this game should have seeding implications. The most important player to mention from this game is Casey Mitchell, who scored 31 points, including 6-for-12 behind the arc. West Virginia is again very athletic - they can rebound well and are strong defensively. Truck Bryant is also doing a much better job of taking care of the ball compared to last season. But if Casey Mitchell can shoot like this from deep then West Virginia has the ability to beat just about anybody. That said, teams that live by the three can die by it, and I don't think West Virginia can score consistently enough to have a serious chance of winning the Big East. But they deserve, at these early stages, to at least be in the discussion. For Vanderbilt, this was a very disappointing day for star Jeffery Taylor, who fouled out in only 14 minutes on the floor, with five points and one rebound. The bright spot was sophomore John Jenkins, who scored 27 points and is up around 20 points per game already this season. Vanderbilt doesn't have the raw talent to win the SEC East, but a third or even second placed finish is possible when you consider how many question marks surround Tennessee and Florida. And Vandy certainly appears to be better than any team from the putrid SEC West.

#16 Illinois 80, Maryland 76
This was a solid, but unspectacular win for Illinois. They were again out-toughed and out-hustled on the boards, and only won this game because of hot shooting behind the arc (10-for-19). I have already talked about the fact that Bruce Weber doesn't appear to trust his bench beyond Brandon Paul and Jereme Richmond. Richmond is the only freshman Weber trusts, and Tyler Griffey (who's a sophomore, but he played very sparingly as a freshman) also makes too many mistakes to earn a lot of time. He was forced onto the floor for an extended time here because Jordan Williams fouled out Mike Tisdale, but Griffey was unimpressive. The highlight for Illinois was probably Demetri McCamey playing great, but he played really well all of last season and Illinois only had marginal success - he needs more help. They're going to need these young players to at the very least provide some depth for the brutal Big Ten regular season. As for Maryland, they leave New York with losses to Illinois and Pittsburgh. Both are quality losses, and Maryland will have plenty of chances to collect big scalps later in the season, but the worry for Maryland is that nobody is showing much other than Jordan Williams. Their guard play has been poor, and Pe'Shon Howard hasn't lived up yet to the hype he got after that performance against College of Charleston a couple of weeks ago.

North Carolina State 78, George Mason 65
I have to give NC State a lot of credit for overcoming star Tracy Smith's injury to get a quality win here to earn an opportunity against Georgetown tomorrow in the championship game of the Charleston Classic. Star freshman CJ Leslie is having a big impact for NC State, even if it doesn't totally show up in the box score. George Mason had to completely collapse on him every time he touched the ball, opening things up for NC State's shooters outside. That said, NC State has games coming up in about two weeks at Wisconsin and at Syracuse. As good as CJ Leslie is, they're going to need Tracy Smith back to win those games. Particularly since both of those teams will be able to guard Leslie one-on-one in the post and will force NC State's perimeter players to create offense. George Mason will be disappointed that they couldn't win this game, but NC State will be an RPI Top 100 team so this won't be a bad loss. And after wins over Charlotte and Harvard, and with a chance for another decent win tomorrow against Wofford, George Mason is off to a strong start and will have solid computer numbers. I would tell you what their computer numbers are, but the fact is that the computer numbers are meaningless this early in the season. The Mountain West (which might get a majority of its members into the NCAA Tournament) is still currently behind the SWAC (winless against D-I opponents this season - an embarrassing 0-26 so far) in conference RPI. Even the best computer rating system (Pomeroy) is pretty meaningless until mid-December.