Sunday, February 28, 2010

Syracuse Slaughters Villanova

#4 Syracuse 95, #8 Villanova 77
Syracuse executed their game plan well here, pounding the ball inside to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku and getting Villanova's already small front line in foul trouble. Syracuse was always going to dominate the boards against a team like Villanova, but 22 offensive rebounds had to be more than expectations. That's said, it's tough to buy too much into this win when you consider just how awful Villanova was. Not only did they do a terrible job of penetrating the zone, they barely even tried. When Syracuse went on their big run late in the first half it seemed like they went 15 straight possessions without having to play half court offense. It seemed like every possession involved Scottie Reynolds or Corey Fisher launching a three-pointer in the first ten seconds of the shot clock leading to a long rebound, leading to a 3-on-1 break. Bob Knight brought it up a few times during the broadcast, but Jay Wright should have gone further and pulled some of his starters. Syracuse (just like any other team playing a zone defense) is trying to entice its opponent into launching threes early in the shot clock. The way to beat a zone is to penetrate it and force double teams (either with dribble drives or with directed passing), the way Louisville did masterfully a couple of weeks ago. Of course, even if Villanova had played well they still might not have won. They've now lost three of four games and their Tournament seed could really start to slide if they don't win a couple of games before Selection Sunday. As for Syracuse, they will be #1 in the country when the new polls come out tomorrow, and they hold their own seed destiny. They will get a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win out. They can even lose one more game and still be in a good position for a 1 seed.

Marquette 84, Seton Hall 83, OT
This was a pretty shocking loss for a Seton Hall team that has been almost unbeatable at home this season (their three home losses before this had all come against the RPI Top 20). And I give all of the credit to Buzz Williams, who had a masterful plan of attack. His team opened up a ten point lead in the opening minutes, and their eight point halftime lead was enough to overcome the fact that Bobby Gonzales eventually realized that a team that basically plays four guards at all times is vulnerable to big men. Jeff Robinson got going for Seton Hall with 25 points, but none of the other Seton Hall big men were able to see much of the ball. They relied on their backcourt, which is full of quality players, but which is not the correct strategy against Marquette. While Jamie Dixon probably deserves the Big East Coach of the Year most, and Jim Boeheim also deserves to be discussed, I think Buzz Williams probably should be in that discussion as well. He came into this job last season with the reputation as a recruiter who was only so-so as an in-game coach and strategist, but he's certainly disproved that this season. If the season ended now there's no question that Marquette would be in the Tournament, and with a 10-6 record they will be in a great position if they can just split their final two regular season games. If they lose both of those games then they'll have some work to do in the Big East tournament. As for Seton Hall, I expected them to get back in the at-large discussion with a win here, but with this loss they're in trouble. They're 7-9 in Big East play, and only 6-11 against the RPI Top 100. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be close to that magic mark of 50th, and with two relative easy opponents remaining (Rutgers and Providence) I don't think they can afford another loss until the Big East tournament or else they're heading to another NIT.

Xavier 78, #24 Richmond 76, 2OT
Xavier is probably the best team in the Atlantic Ten, and I impressed by the way that Richmond hung in this game. Their defense was particularly impressive, holding what is by far the best offense in the A-10 to well under a point per possession. The 20 forced turnovers were a huge part of that effort, although they also clamped down with tough perimeter shot defense. But in the end the win was Xavier's, and they can clinch at least a share of the regular season A-10 title with wins over Fordham and St. Bonaventure, two opponents that will be fairly large underdogs. With a 10-7 record against the RPI Top 100 and an RPI up to a remarkable 12th, they're certainly safely into the NCAA Tournament for the time being. That said, everybody knows that those A-10 RPIs are a little inflated, and so Xavier might still find themselves on the bubble if they lost every remaining game - but that won't happen. If they can win out between now and Selection Sunday, as I think they have a great shot to do, they will get no worse than a 6 seed, and could easily be a couple of lines higher. As for Richmond, even with this loss they're still in the Field of 65 for the time being. They are 8-7 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Missouri, Florida and Temple, and with zero bad losses. Their RPI is 28th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be right around 30th when it comes out tomorrow morning. They probably need one more win to completely assure themselves an at-large bid, but they remain one of three A-10 teams (along with Xavier and Temple) that seems to be safely into the bracket. The other teams in the conference still have work to do to make the A-10 a four bid league.

Terps Keep ACC Title Hopes Alive

Maryland 104, Virginia Tech 100, 2OT
This game was really close the entire way, with the two teams within a single possession for most of the game. And as I often say, in a game like this it's clear that neither team "deserves" to win more than the other, because when games are this close the winner is often decided by lucky bounces or bad referee calls. Greivis Vasquez led all players with 41 points, although 41 is a little less impressive than it usually is when 31 of those points are scored from the field and it took 33 shots (to his credit, he was 10-for-10 at the line). Jordan Williams was a force inside for Maryland with 15 rebounds, including 7 on the offensive end. Virginia Tech was led by the trio of Malcolm Delaney, Dorenzo Hudson and Jeff Allen, who all scored more than 20 points. For Maryland, this win keeps their ACC title hopes alive. They remain one loss behind Duke, and can even that up when Duke comes to College Park on Wednesday. The ACC has gotten lost again in the Big East hype, and because tv analysts always judge conferences by how many Top Ten or Top 25 teams they have, even though those are wildly stupid metrics (see here for my explanation of this argument, if you haven't seen it before). Pomeroy rates the ACC as the best conference in the nation, narrowly ahead of the Big 12. Sagarin puts the Big 12 at the top, narrowly ahead of the ACC. The ACC has no bad teams, and to win the ACC would be a very impressive feat. As for Virginia Tech, they are 21-7 and tied for fourth place in the ACC, but are only 8-6 in ACC play with a 5-5 record against the RPI Top 100. In fact, if I torture the numbers a bit I can point out that they're 6-7 against the RPI Top 105. Their RPI is 52nd and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 34th. At the moment they're still in the Field of 65, but it's a tenuous position because of the lack of big wins (they will end the regular season with no wins against the RPI Top 25). I think they need two more wins to assure themselves an at-large bid: either a sweep of their final two regular season games, or a split of those games followed up by a win in the ACC tournament.

Minnesota 62, Illinois 60
Illinois had a nightmare first half here, shooting 22.6% from the field, including 0-for-11 behind the arc. Minnesota opened up their lead to 19 points with under seven minutes left in the game. But this was a near-must win for Illinois, and they fought back ferociously, hitting five of six three-pointers in a short stretch and earning themselves the ball with eight seconds to go and a chance to tie, but the shot didn't go and this will be a tough one to get over. The loss drops Illinois to 10-6 in the Big Ten with a game at Ohio State, and at home vs Wisconsin to close the regular season, unable to afford losses in both games. In fact, even a split to get to 11-7 might not assure them an NCAA Tournament bid (although it will be very likely). Illinois needs two more wins to be sure. Minnesota, meanwhile, keeps their own at-large hopes alive. They're 8-8 in the Big Ten with a 5-8 record against the RPI Top 100, wins over Butler, Ohio State and Wisconsin, and bad losses to Indiana and Michigan. Their RPI is 70th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 68th. There's no question that they'd be NIT bound if the season ended now, but they can put themselves in decent shape if they can take care of business in their final two regular season games (at Michigan, vs Iowa). If they can win those and then win a Big Ten tournament game then they'll at the very least be in the discussion on Selection Sunday. Although I'm betting that they'll need to win at least two Big Ten tournament games to get in.

#6 Kansas State 63, Missouri 53
There probably isn't another team in the country more stressful to play offense against than Missouri. Mike Anderson's 40 Minutes Of Hell, Version 2.0 is even difficult for Big 12 teams that see it twice a season. And Kansas State looked awful early on in this one, scoring only ten points in the first 14 minutes of the game. But Kansas State has been very strong at home this season, with a fan base that is fired up by the best season in a generation, and they fought back for a very impressive win. Kansas State has very, very quietly won seven straight games and has watched the other top ranked teams around them fall one after the other. And at the moment they are actually probably fifth in line for a 1 seed. In fact, if they can win at Kansas on Wednesday night then they'll be, for the time being, a 1 seed. As for Missouri, they fall to 9-5 in Big 12 play with a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Despite a Sagarin PREDICTOR of 12th they still haven't completely locked up an at-large bid, although they can lock that up on Tuesday night at Iowa State.

W-2 BP65

Just a couple of days until conference tournaments begin on Tuesday. I've got a little preview of the first few days here. The next BP65 will be out after Wednesday night's games.

Before getting to the basketball I want to again remind people to stay civil and to come prepared with facts and statistics. I've had to delete far fewer comments the past week or two, and so let's keep it up. I enjoy debating college basketball, and I know that a lot of you do also. And as always, please remember to read About The BP65 to understand what the BP65 is and how teams are ordered.

Now, I just want to do a quick explanation of the top of this bracket. I'll do my best Joe Lunardi impression... only more accurate, of course. By the way, why does Joe Lunardi always show up on ESPN late at night on a Skype connection? What sort of bunker is he in watching basketball that they can't set up a real camera?

Anyway, I've been amused this evening listening to the discussions of who should be #1. We all know how this works: #1 loses so we move up #2, only #2 lost also so we move up #3. Only now people are arguing that it should be #4 Syracuse, because the #3 team lost their best player to injury and is no longer as good as Syracuse. It's amusing to see that argument since the Top 25 has never been about ranking the 25 best teams. It's more of a NASCAR or ATP Tour style points system (as I've explained at length here and here). If Top 25 voters cared about ranking teams by how good they were they'd have Kansas #1, since we all know Kansas is the best team. But all of the analysts and voters will do the kabuki theater of pretending that since the best team lost a game they're no longer the best team... until they get back to #1 in the polls again.

Kansas and Kentucky are still safe #1 seeds. Syracuse will get one if they win the Big East tournament, but people are overrating their chances there. It's hard to win three games in three days when you only have seven players on the court. They're the favorites, but to think it's even a 50% chance is overdoing it. And if Syracuse falls then they could fall to a 2 seed, depending on what happens in other conferences. I actually think Purdue is more likely to go undefeated the rest of the way than Syracuse, because of their schedule. If either Syracuse or Purdue slip up, Duke gets the last 1 seed. Duke is clearly one of the four best teams in the country, but the ACC is going to get disrespected this season because they only have one team in the Top 15, and very few people look outside the Top 25 to rate how good conferences are. Pomeroy says the ACC is the best conference, and Sagarin puts them a very narrow 2nd place to the Big 12. The way Duke has blown through it is insanely impressive. But if I went into any big internet forum and said the ACC was the best conference I'd be attacked as if I was the biggest ACC homer on the planet. We all know the Big East is better because, uh... it has three teams in the Top Ten. As if that matters.

I'll have more thoughts in the comments to this post, depending on what topics people bring up. For now, here's how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. West Virginia
2. Kansas State
2. Villanova

3. Pittsburgh
3. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
3. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

4. Tennessee
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Baylor
4. Michigan State

5. Maryland
5. Georgetown
5. Vanderbilt
5. Texas A&M

6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. BYU
6. Texas
6. GONZAGA (WCC)

7. Wake Forest
7. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
7. Oklahoma State
7. Temple

8. Missouri
8. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
8. Louisville
8. Florida State

9. Virginia Tech
9. Richmond
9. Georgia Tech
9. Clemson

10. Illinois
10. UNLV
10. Saint Mary's
10. UTEP

11. Dayton
11. UConn
11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. Florida

12. San Diego State
12. Marquette
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. SIENA (MAAC)

13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)

15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, UAB, Washington, Mississippi State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Wichita State, Arizona State, Mississippi

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Saint Louis, South Florida, Northwestern, VCU, William & Mary, Marshall, Tulsa, Illinois State, Louisiana Tech

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Miami (Fl), North Carolina, Virginia, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Northeastern, Akron, Missouri State, Georgia, South Carolina, Portland

Saturday, February 27, 2010

New Mexico Grabs MWC Title

#12 New Mexico 83, #11 BYU 81
This was probably the best game of the day, and one of only two match-ups between Top 15 teams, but it happened in the MWC and on a tv channel that a lot of people don't get, and so many don't even realize that this game happened. While this was a wonderful win for New Mexico, I don't think there's much doubt that BYU would have won this with a healthy Jimmer Fredette. He was severely limited with a stomach ailment, scoring six points in 16 minutes. But even without Fredette playing much this is still a very good BYU team that almost never loses at home, and it took a huge effort from all of New Mexico's best players. Darrington Hobson was the star again, with 20 points and 14 rebounds, and Dairese Gary poured in 23 points himself. However the win happened, it means that New Mexico has pretty much wrapped up the outright MWC title. All they have to do is take care of TCU at home. This win marks 13 straight for New Mexico, will probably push their Sagarin ELO_CHESS into the Top Ten, and pushes their RPI Top 100 record to 11-2. If the season ended now they would be a 3 or 4 seed, can realistically get a 2 seed if they can win out. As for BYU, it looks like they'll finish second in the MVC, and despite this loss they're still 8-4 against the RPI Top 100. That said, their best win is against San Diego State, rated 40th in the RPI, and although their Sagarin rating will probably be somewhere around 15th when it comes out in the morning, I think they're only a 5-6 seed right now. The Selection Committee is going to have trouble giving a higher seed than that to a team with no big wins. Of course, BYU will get a chance for a big win if they can get a re-match against New Mexico in the MWC tournament.

California 62, Arizona State 46
California locked up at least a share of the Pac-10 regular season title and moved clearly into the Field of 65 all while beating up one of their potential rivals for an at-large bid. Obviously it was a good day for Cal Bears basketball. They still have no wins against the RPI Top 50, but they have quantity over quality and have a respectable 6-7 record against the RPI Top 100, an RPI up to 21st, and a Sagarin rating that is getting up to nearly 40th. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, and are by far the Pac-10's best shot at an at-large bid. As for Arizona State, they remain in a battle with Washington for the second best resume in the Pac-10, but like Washington they are out of the Field of 65 for the time being. They are 10-6 in the Pac-10 and 20-9 overall, which normally would be a Tournament resume, but in this year's awful Pac-10 that means a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS out of the Top 60. They end the season with home games against USC and UCLA, and they'll be favored by at least five points in both. If they win both and then make the Pac-10 tournament finals then that should be enough for an at-large bid, but anything less than that and it's going to be a nervous Selection Sunday for Sun Devils fans.

Oklahoma State 85, #1 Kansas 77
Oklahoma State opened up the lead early in this one and had a 19 point first half lead, and then never really let Kansas get too close the rest of the way. And certainly Matt Pilgrim made a case for his importance on the team after they lost their last game with him suspended following three straight wins with him in the lineup. And Pilgrim came back big here with 18 points on 8-for-8 shooting from the field. And I can't remember the last time James Anderson didn't score 20+ points in a game. If Oklahoma State can win a couple of games in the NCAA Tournament then Anderson can really become a household name. And this win just about gets Oklahoma State there. I'd like to see them win one more game to really lock up a bid, but with a 4-5 record against the RPI Top 50 with wins over Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor, it's very unlikely that Oklahoma State will be left out. As for Kansas, they really just ran into a team today that couldn't miss a shot. They were a little sloppy with the ball and did not rebound up to their usual standards, but it still took 60% shooting from the field for Oklahoma State to carry the day. Kansas remains the best team in the country and will get a 1 seed in the Tournament unless something really crazy happens.

Tennessee Takes Out Another Top Team

#17 Tennessee 74, #2 Kentucky 65
It was just one of those days for Kentucky, as they shot 2-for-22 behind the arc and bricked their way to their second loss of the season. You have to give Tennessee credit for not allowing any easy baskets inside. They got called for their share of fouls, and Kentucky stayed in this game with four more free throws made than Tennessee attempted, but they also successfully encouraged Kentucky to keep firing up three pointers that just were not going in. I am also impressed with the fact that Bruce Pearl has continued to use his bench (he gave ten players extended time today, with only two players getting more than 26 minutes on the floor) despite the fact that the roster seems short of enough scholarship players. He's had no problem going with walk-ons that he feels confident can handle the game and keep the tempo and pressure up on opponents. This marks the second win of the season for Tennessee over a Top Two team, to go with a take down of #1 ranked Kansas back in early January. Tennessee is still only 9-5 with this win, and for the time being is still ranked fourth in the SEC East standings, but they probably have the second best resume in the SEC. Vanderbilt has avoided some of the mediocre losses that Tennessee has, as they've managed to pull out a lot of close games over the middle-and-lower teams in the SEC, but Tennessee has bigger wins. Vandy is 9-4 against the RPI Top 100, compared to 9-6 for Tennessee, but they still have no wins against the RPI Top 10. This win pushes Tennessee up to a 4 or 5 seed for the time being, with the potential to realistically move as high as a 3 seed with a strong finish. As for Kentucky, all losses are good learning experiences for young teams, and we'll see how they learn from this one. Despite media huffing and puffing, this was no big upset. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rated Kentucky as only the seventh best team in the country coming into this one, and Sagarin gave the slight edge in this game to Tennessee while Pomeroy gave the slight edge to Kentucky (due to Sagarin rating Tennessee higher than Pomeroy). This was basically a pick'em game. Kentucky remains a strong favorite for a 1 seed. I still think that Kansas is the clear #1 team in the nation, and that Kentucky is the second most likely team to grab a 1 seed, despite the fact that they're obviously not one of the two best teams in the country (due to a combination of a weak schedule, some lucky close wins, and the media hype around John Wall and John Calipari). They would have to lose at least one more time before Selection Sunday to have any chance of not getting a 1 seed.

#23 Texas A&M 74, #21 Texas 58
With Texas A&M coming off a tough loss and Texas coming off their biggest win in almost a month, it was no surprise to see Texas A&M take care of business on their home floor. Donald Sloan will get the attention on Sportscenter because of his 19 points, but the key to this win Bryan Davis, who had seven offensive rebounds against a huge Texas frontline to lead A&M to the surprising rebounding advantage in this game. Davis has probably been the key behind this entire Texas A&M hot stretch, where they've won 6 of their last 8 games. During that stretch Davis is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, including 5.3 on the offensive end. He's already up to 7th in the conference in rebounding per game, and among those playing more than 25 minutes per game is third in the conference in offensive rebounding efficiency, behind only the much better known Cole Aldrich and Ekpe Udoh. This win should lock up the NCAA Tournament for an Aggies team that was a bubble team just a month ago. They are 9-5 in the Big 12 with an 8-8 record against the RPI Top 100 and zero bad losses. They'd be a 4-6 seed if the season ended now. As for Texas, this is not a bad loss, but it's a missed opportunity. And more importantly, they don't know the status of J'Covan Brown, who had a nasty fall at the end of the game. It looked like he just slammed his head and had a stinger, but you never want to project how quickly a guy will be back when he's taken off the floor on a stabilizing stretcher. Texas is already in trouble at the point guard position with Dogus Balbay gone for the season, and you saw the ball handling problems here with more turnovers as a team than assists. If J'Covan Brown has to be out for any kind of time then the team is really going to have a problem. Jai Lucas is a capable point guard who can eat minutes there, but he's nowhere near the all around athlete and player that Brown is, and who would be the backup? Neither Justin Mason or Avery Bradley is anything but a scoring guard. But as I said, unless something happened that wasn't apparent on television, I wouldn't expect Brown to miss any more time. The next Texas game (at home vs Oklahoma) should be an easy one anyway. Their next true test will be the regular season finale at Baylor next Saturday.

#7 West Virginia 74, Cincinnati 68
Cincy opened up a 13 point first half lead here, but West Virginia started to chip away late in the first half and the Mountaineers victory just started feeling inevitable. West Virginia certainly played with more energy here, and it felt like they just could jump higher and run faster than anybody Cincy had. It was a particularly disappointing performance from Yancy Gates, who had that glazed look that he gets when he's mailing in games, and which is so frustrating to watch when you consider the raw talent that he has. Unless the boxscore I'm looking at has a typo, Gates played this entire game without a single rebound, despite being the largest player on the floor. That's unbelievable. This loss is devastating to Cincy's at-large chances, which were already starting to get a bit dim. I've been waiting all season for Yancy Gates to take this team on his back, and it hasn't happened, and it's hard to see him doing it now. The Bearcats are now 7-9 in the Big East with a brutal final two regular season games (vs Villanova, at Georgetown). Needless to say, they've got to at least split those two games to keep their realistic at-large hopes alive. As for West Virginia, they've had a lot of slow starts and fast finishes lately, but it hasn't hurt them too much. They remain 11-5 in Big East play, in a tie for third place. They play an almost identical schedule to Cincy to close the season (at Villanova, vs Georgetown), so while they could end up 11-7, they could also still potentially make a run at a 1 seed if they can win out and then win the Big East tournament. A more likely finish, of course, is a 2 or a 3 seed.

Texas Gaining Momentum Despite Losing Balbay

#21 Texas 69, Oklahoma State 59
Fears that Texas was turning into North Carolina and falling apart seem to have been greatly exaggerated. While both Texas and UNC have a ton of talent, Texas has a lot more in the way of senior leadership. Damion James won't let the Horns fall apart mentally like the Tar Heels have. Since losing six of nine games Texas has bounced back with two straight quality victories, and get another chance for another quality win this afternoon at Texas A&M. The question mark I have for them now is Dogus Balbay, who was injured during their previous game, and is out for the season with an ACL tear. Obviously they won this game without him, but there's no question that they'll feel his absence seriously at some point this season. Way back in November, when Varez Ward was knocked out for the season, I talked about the Texas situation at guard. Obviously Avery Bradley and J'Covan Brown have really taken off, and both are legimately explosive scorers. Justin Mason is a quality guard as well, and Jai Lucas has emerged as a minutes eater off of the bench. So Texas will still have four quality guards moving forward. But Dogus Balbay was my favorite guard on the team for two reasons. First, he was their best on-ball defender, and the Texas perimeter defense will struggle in his absence. More importantly, he was the primary ball handler who led the team in assists and never seemed to make any mistakes. While Jai Lucas can play the point, J'Covan Brown will be the one expected to take over as the starting point guard. Brown hasn't shown anywhere near the point guard ability of Balbay, and also is more raw and inexperienced. That big drop-off could really hurt the Texas offensive efficiency. And when you consider how key point guards are to NCAA Tournament success, the loss of Balbay could be crippling to any Final Four hopes that they still had. As for Oklahoma State, this is not a bad loss by any means, but it does drop them to 7-6 in Big 12 play with two very difficult games upcoming (vs Kansas, at Texas A&M). If they lose both of those games then they cannot finish better than 8-8, which would mean a real possibility of falling out of the NCAA tournament. A win against Kansas today would probably lock up that at-large bid for good.

Baylor 70, #23 Texas A&M 66
While Kansas State has moved firmly into second place in the Big 12, the battle for third place continues to be wide open, and after this result these two teams are in a tie for fourth place, only one game back of third placed Missouri. Both of these teams are safely in the bracket for the time being and would have to completely fall apart to end up back on the bubble again, but there are still a wide range of seeds available for both of these teams. Baylor is 21-6 with a 9-4 record against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Missouri, Oklahoma State and Xavier to go with this one, and only one bad loss (to Colorado). Their RPI is 12th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 15th. Texas A&M is 19-8 with a 7-8 record against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Clemson, Baylor and Missouri and no bad losses. Their RPI is 18th and their ELO_CHESS is 19th. Obviously Baylor has moved slightly ahead in terms of resume, but that could easily change. Baylor plays at Oklahoma this afteronoon, while Texas A&M will play simultaneously at home against Texas.

Notre Dame 78, #13 Georgetown 64
Notre Dame was looked to be off the bubble just about a week ago, and suddenly they're right back in the mix with two straight huge wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown. What is even more amazing about these two games is the fact that Luke Harangody hasn't played a single minute in either, sitting out with an injury. Tim Abromaitis has been doing his best Luke Harangody impression all season long, but he was playing very well even before Harangody went out. Ben Hansbrough has continued to improve all season long and is clearly the floor leader when Harangody is out, but the real difference has been Carleton Scott, who really flourished today in extended minutes. The win pushes Notre Dame up to 8-8 in Big East play with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that will be very close to the magical Top 50 when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. Their final two regular season games will be against two other bubbles teams: at home vs UConn, then on the road at Marquette. If the Irish can split those two and then win a Big East tournament game then they will at the very least be a part of the discussion on Selection Sunday. As for Georgetown, that #13 ranking hides the fact that they're now only 9-7 in the Big East, with two difficult games upcoming (at West Virginia, vs Cincinnati). Of course, when Georgetown is playing at their best they can beat just about anybody, so there's no reason that they can't win at West Virginia. But they've so rarely played at their best this season, and I can't explain why they've been so up and down. Even if Georgetown loses out I still can't see them being on the bubble on Selection Sunday unless something really crazy happens because of all of the quality wins that they have, but their NCAA Tournament seed could really plummet. It would already be in the 5-7 range if the season ended now, and it could fall even further if they don't turn this around quickly.

Last Full Weekend Of The Regular Season

Believe it or not, this is the last full slate of regular season games on a weekend this season. The first conference tournaments commence on Tuesday, and by next weekend we'll be playing important games in important conferences (obviously the first round of the Big South tournament is important to Charleston Southern fans, but most casual fans couldn't really care less).

I'll have a full rundown soon with the dates of every conference tournament, as well as a preview of what to look for in each tournament: which team is the favorite, which team is the sleeper, and which teams will be fighting for bubble spots. I haven't done a full preview like that for conference tournaments in the past, but I think it will be fun. And you all can tell me if you think it was worthwhile.

But just quickly, there will be some important conference tournament games next week that I'll just touch on very briefly:

Friday, March 5th:

Missouri Valley quarterfinals: Every year I question why the Missouri Valley plays their tournament so early. It might increase their tv audience, but it also really damages the at-large chances of their teams, who will be sitting at home while other bubble teams collect wins in the days before Selection Sunday. It's not rational, but it's human nature to give more weight to games that are fresh in your mind, and by Selection Sunday it always feels like those MVC tournament games took place a month before. But that said, Arch Madness is always fun, and while the opening round is on Thursday, March 4th, the fun begins on Friday. Wichita State and Illinois State remain legitimate at-large contenders, and both must win their games on this day to stay alive. Northern Iowa will probably be assured an at-large bid by the time March 5th rolls around, but if not then a win here to avoid a total washout in the MVC tournament should assure them of a Tournament appearance.

Saturday, March 6th:

Colonial Athletic Association quarterfinals: The CAA tournament actually begins on Friday, but the top four teams get byes. It is possible that VCU or William & Mary could end up with a 5 seed and could have to play on Friday, but they should win that game easily, and the important action will begin on Saturday. Old Dominion, Northeastern, VCU and William & Mary all still have some chance at an at-large bid, and I don't need to tell you that none of them can afford a loss in their first CAA tournament game. That 4/5 game, if it's between VCU and William & Mary (the 4th and 5th placed teams right now), will be an elimination game. Probably the first at-large "elimination game" of the season. The semifinal will be Sunday the 7th of March, and the final will be Monday the 8th.

Horizon League semifinals: Butler will get a bye into the semifinals of the Horizon tournament, and their games will be the only ones that matter since no other teams have a chance at an at-large. And Butler wouldn't ever lose to the bottom teams in the conference anyway. But in the semifinals and finals there will be opponents that have the ability to knock out Butler and make the Horizon League a two-bid league again.

Missouri Valley semifinals: Northern Iowa will likely be assured of an at-large bid by this point, although they'll be playing for NCAA Tournament seeding of course. But the real game to watch here will be Wichita State vs Illinois State, assuming that both take care of business in their quarterfinal games. Assuming those two teams play then the winner will have a great shot at an at-large bid even if they lose the MVC tournament finals, while the loser is probably going to the NIT. It's too early to definitely call that game an elimination game, but it very well might be.

WCC quarterfinals: Assuming Saint Mary's doesn't fall on their face tonight against Loyola-Marymount they will get a bye to the semifinals along with Gonzaga, and so will not play until Sunday, March 7th. But Portland will be playing in the quarterfinals, and while their at-large chances have gotten long they are still not entirely extinguished. Needless to say, their game here will be an absolutely must-win. They'll also need to win their semifinal match, presumably against Saint Mary's. Should they do that and play Gonzaga close in the WCC finals then they'll get the chance to spend the rest of Championship Week at home rooting against all of the other bubble teams. Of course, they could also knock off Gonzaga and get the automatic bid to make things easy. San Diego proved a couple of years ago that it's not impossible.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Robbie Hummel Lost For The Season

Purdue fans had their worst fears realized today, as it was announced that Robbie Hummel's injury against Minnesota was an ACL tear, and he'll be out for the season. We won't get another chance to see the team play until Sunday, when they play Michigan State at home, but we can take a guess at how Purdue will play. And the answer is that despite the loss of one of the best players in the country I don't expect Purdue to fall off a cliff. I still think they'll be the best team in the Big Ten, although the gap will narrow.

The fact is that Purdue has quite a few stars, and the other four starters besides Hummel all have the ability to lead the team at times. But the problem is that a few times this season those other stars haven't brought it, and Hummel has carried the team on his back. You also have to wonder what will happen should they face Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament title game, and whether Evan Turner will be able to run away with things. We all remember that great Hummel-Turner duel earlier in the season, and as good as players like E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are, neither can match Evan Turner basket for basket.

But I do expect them to beat Michigan State this weekend, I expect them to win the regular season Big Ten title, and I still give them as good of a chance as anybody of winning the Big Ten tournament. But they will still really feel Hummel's loss, and at the moment I'm leaning towards dropping them from a 1 seed to a 2 seed. And more importantly, it really damages their chances of getting to a Final Four with this core of players.

W-2.5 BP65

Believe it or not we're less than a week from the first conference tournaments. The first conference tournaments tip off on Tuesday, March 2nd. The next BP65 (and the final BP65 before conference tournaments begin) will be out soon after Saturday night's games finish)

Once again I want to remind people to stay civil and to come prepared with facts and statistics. The tone of the comments has improved greatly in recent weeks, but I won't hesitate to start deleting posts again if things degrade. Please remember to read About The BP65 to understand what the BP65 is and how teams are ordered.

For now, here's how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Villanova
2. Kansas State
2. West Virginia

3. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
3. Pittsburgh
3. BUTLER (HORIZON)

4. Georgetown
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
4. Texas
4. Wake Forest

5. Michigan State
5. Baylor
5. Tennessee
5. Maryland

6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Vanderbilt
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. BYU

7. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
7. Temple
7. Missouri
7. Texas A&M

8. Oklahoma State
8. Louisville
8. Florida State
8. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)

9. Virginia Tech
9. Illinois
9. Richmond
9. Georgia Tech

10. Florida
10. Clemson
10. UNLV
10. Saint Mary's

11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. UConn
11. UTEP
11. Dayton

12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. San Diego State
12. Cincinnati
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)

15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Charlotte, Rhode Island, Marquette, UAB, Washington, Mississippi

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Wichita State, Arizona State, Mississippi State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Miami (Fl), Saint Louis, South Florida, Northwestern, VCU, William & Mary, Marshall, Tulsa, Illinois State, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia, Duquesne, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Northeastern, Iona, Akron, Missouri State, Arizona, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Portland, Nevada

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Dayton Might Be Falling Out

#18 Temple 49, Dayton 41
It's a good thing for the Atlantic Ten conference that this game wasn't on tv for most of the country. It was just a brick-fest, with 32 points scored in the first half.. combined. Dayton hit an abysmal 26% from the field, and the teams couldn't even score at the line, combining for 63% shooting there. But Temple has more room to spare for games like this than Dayton does, as the Flyers have lost three of four to fall to 7-6 in the A-10 with computer numbers that have all fallen out of the Top 40 in the country. If the season ended now I think they'd actually be one of the first teams out of the bracket, possibly their first time out of the bracket all season. Assuming they take care of business this weekend against UMass, they will then need to at least split their final two regular season games against Richmond and Saint Louis. Richmond will be particularly important to beat since they might be one of the teams fighting for those final at-large spots. As for Temple, they've quietly won four straight games to move to 11-2 with three games left that they should be strongly favored in. They are 9-5 against the RPI Top 100 with no bad losses, and with so many losses happening right now to the other teams ranked in the 10th-20th range you have to say that Temple is a serious contender for a 4 or a 5 seed if they can win the A-10 tournament.

Notre Dame 68, #13 Pittsburgh 53
I always remind my readers that the best time to bet against a team is after they have a big win, and Pitt was obviously coming off a big win here. That said, Pitt actually didn't play that poorly here. The fact that they scored only 53 points had a lot more to do with the painfully deliberate pace that both of these teams played at, with both teams getting only 53 or 54 possessions, than with poor offensive efficiency. Notre Dame had an extremely efficient offense here (68 points is a lot of points at this type of tempo) due to red hot shooting behind the arc (10-for-18 as a team). This game clearly meant a lot more for an Irish team that is desperately fighting to get back on the bubble. And while this win doesn't get them back in the Field of 65, it does put them back on the bubble. They're 7-8 in the Big East with a respectable 6-8 record against the RPI Top 100 with a win over West Virginia to go with this one, and only one really bad loss (to Loyola Marymount). They entered this game 67th in the Sagarin ELO_CHESS, needing to get up to the Top 50 to get an at-large bid (it's very rare for teams outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50 to get one). They will have to win two of their final three games (which won't be easy, with games at Georgetown, vs UConn, at Marquette) to still be on the bubble when the Big East tournament begins. For Pitt, their resume won't change too much this week with this loss following the huge win against Villanova. With three easy games remaining they will most likely be 13-5 heading into the Big East tournament, and still firmly in position for a 3-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Maryland 88, Clemson 79
It's amazing that a team could be 10-3 in the ACC with a National Championship in the last decade and yet still be completely unknown to most of the public, but that's the case right now with a Maryland team that continues to hang in there in the ACC title race. Greivis Vasquez was the star here with 15 points and 13 assists, but super freshman Jordan Williams was again huge off the bench (18 points on 8-for-12 shooting). We knew Vasquez would be one of the best players in the ACC this season, but the emergence of Williams has probably been the biggest reason that Maryland has exceeded expectations this season. They have a very tough remaining schedule, but they actually control their own destiny and will win at least a share of the ACC regular season title if they can win their final three games. I wouldn't bet on it, but Maryland has spent all season exceeding expectations. As for Clemson, they fall to 7-6 and will enter March still without a Tournament bid in hand. And with three tough games remaining in their regular season (at Florida State, vs Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest) they will still need to beat at least one more quality opponent to avoid the NIT.

UConn Back Into The Bracket

UConn 73, #7 West Virginia 62
It's always amazing to me how the no-perspective sports media can build up, knock down and build up again each of these teams with each game. Just a week or two ago we were told that UConn wasn't just out of the bracket, but they had no chance of ever getting back in bracket. Suddenly they're one of the hottest teams in the Big East and right back in the bracket. They are a very athletic team that can play very good defense and can rebound very well when the effort is good, but they're also sloppy. They have the athletes to stay in the game against any opponent, but they also struggle to score so much in slow-down drag-out half court sets that they can lose to anybody in the Big East. One stat that really tells this story more than any other is their rebounding efficiency from Pomeroy. They have the 32nd rated offensive rebounding squad and the 252nd rated defensive rebounding squad. Offensive rebounds have to do mostly with athleticism, as well as effort. Defensive rebounding is more than anything about fundamentals and execution. Well-coached teams are typically better at defensive rebounding than offensive rebounding. Either way, they did rebound well in this game, and Kemba Walker did a great job of getting to the rim to score 21 points even though he couldn't hit an outside shot. The Huskies now move to 7-8 in the Big East. And while they could earn an at-large bid with an 8-10 Big East record and a good performance in the Big East tournament, they really should get to 9-9 if they want to feel good about their chances. As for West Virginia, they fall to 10-5 in the Big East and might be a 3 seed if the season ended now, but with remaining regular season games against Georgetown and Villanova, as well as the Big East tournament, they will have plenty of chances to earn some more big wins. They'd need a lot of things to go right to make a run at a 1 seed, but a 2 seed is still well within their reach.

#13 Georgetown 70, Louisville 60
It seems as if the Georgetown Big Three (Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright) just take turns each game being the star. You never know which of the three will explode. And while Greg Monroe had another big game (16 points and 14 rebounds), it was Austin Freeman's extraordinarily efficient 29 points (5-for-6 behind the arc, 4-for-6 on two-point attempts, and 6-for-6 at the line) that powered Georgetown to a big second half comeback and a nice bounce-back win after two straight losses. It was a sign of the respect (whether it's warranted or not) that the Big East gets in the polls that an 8-6 Georgetown team came into this game ranked 13th in the country. They move to 9-6 now with a chance for another big win next week at West Virginia. A win there would immediately put them back in the discussion for a 3 seed. For Louisville this is a disappointing missed opportunity, although they're still pretty safely in the Field of 65 for the time being. But with a difficult remaining regular season schedule (at UConn, at Marquette, vs Syracuse) they could easily fall right back out of the Tournament. Two wins in those three games will lock up an at-large bid, but with only one win in those three games they will likely need a Big East tournament win.

Florida 75, #17 Tennessee 62
This was some of the best basketball that Florida has played all season. They are a thin team that depends so much on their starting lineup, which showed up big with at least eight points from all five starters, for 71 points in all. They were particularly dominant down low, scoring at a 56% clip for the game on two-point attempts. They also benefited from a poor game out of Wayne Chism, who fouled out with only 15 minutes on the floor. The win is Florida's 20th on the season, and they're now 9-4 in the SEC. Two of their final three regular season games will be against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. This loss drops Tennessee to fourth place in the SEC East, although we can effectively call that fourth place in the SEC with the way that the entire SEC West has fallen apart. They get a chance for an immediate bounce-back win with Kentucky coming to town on Saturday afternoon. They'd be a 5-7 seed if the season ended now, but they can improve their expectations dramatically with a win over Kentucky now that they appear to have settled down their suspension issues and seem to be finally getting comfortable with their new rotation.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Villanova And Michigan State Fall

#21 Pittsburgh 70, #3 Villanova 65
It was pretty clear here why Villanova's playing style makes them particularly vulnerable against certain types of opponents. Their backcourt is outstanding and will likely not be outplayed in any NCAA Tournament game, but they can play well and still lose, as they did here. Scottie Reynolds led the way here with 20 points on 6-for-11 shooting, and as a team the Wildcats hit 43% behind the arc. But we all know that Villanova is small, and against big teams like Pittsburgh a game can basically turn into offensive rebounding practice. Pitt had 18 offensive rebounds (compared to only 20 defensive rebounds for Villanova), and despite 35% shooting (even worse than you might think because of all of the easy put-back baskets) they managed to win this game. It makes you wonder what will happen when Villanova plays Syracuse. I had thought that Villanova would have an advantage because of how much Syracuse depends on turnovers and transition points, and struggles to score in half-court sets, but Syracuse is even larger on the inside than Pitt is and could really just muscle their way to the victory. Still, even with a loss to Syracuse this weekend and a failure to win the Big East tournament title, Villanova still looks to be in a good position for a 2 seed. As for Pitt, this is their fifth straight win and they have now moved into sole possession of third place in the Big East. Most of the other contenders for 3 and 4 seeds have really fallen apart the past couple of weeks, and that opens the door to those types of seeds for Pitt

#12 Ohio State 74, #11 Michigan State 67
I know that Evan Turner missed a few weeks with injury, but it's getting harder and harder to not put him as the favorite to win the National Player of the Year award. He played here with a flu, on the road against one of the best defensive teams in the country, and yet ended up only four assists short of a triple double. The only players I can think of over the last decade who were this much of a threat night after night for a triple double were Dwyane Wade and Stephane Lasme. Ohio State's backcourt also deserves a lot of credit for this big win with the way they suffocated Kalin Lucas, who ended up with only nine points on 3-for-13 shooting. Ohio State appears to be in the driver's seat for second place in the Big Ten, and looks to be somewhere close to a 3 seed right now. A good Big Ten tournament performance can easily move them up to a 2. Michigan State, meanwhile, is proving how important schedule strength is. They opened up the Big Ten season 9-0 by beating up on inferior opponents, yet have lost four of six games since the schedule toughened up about three weeks ago. They entered this game ranked 11th in the nation, but they'd probably be a 5 or a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. They next play at Purdue, on Sunday evening, and then they follow that up with two relatively easy home games to get them sharp for the Big Ten tournament.

Marquette 79, Cincinnati 76, OT
Hot shooting by Marquette behind the arc (11 made three-pointers, at a 41% clip) and at the line (94% for the game) were the difference here as Marquette overcame their inferiority inside against Cincinnati. And in the process of collecting a quality win for themselves, they dealt a crushing blow to Cincinnati's at-large chances. Marquette moves to 8-6 in the Big East, with a 5-7 record against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Georgetown, Xavier and UConn, as well as a bad loss against DePaul. Their RPI is still only 60th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is all the way up to 38th. They would be one of the last teams into the bracket, or one of the first teams out, if the season ended now. With a relatively easy four games remaining in their regular season they probably need to finish at least 2-2 to stay in a good position for an at-large bid. If they can do that and then win at least one Big East tournament game then they'll assure themselves of at least being in the discussion on Selection Sunday. Cincy, meanwhile, gets clearly knocked out of the Field of 65 for the time being. They are now only 6-8 in the Big East, and 6-11 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Vanderbilt, Maryland and UConn (twice), and no bad losses. Their RPI is 56th and their ELO_CHESS is 54th. They've now put themselves in a situation where they will need at least one win in their final three brutal games (at West Virginia, vs Villanova, at Georgetown), or else their at-large hopes will be dashed.

Illinois Still On The Bubble

#4 Purdue 75, Illinois 65
The reason Purdue is so good is because they have so many weapons. You can contain their three best players, and they can still beat you with their fourth and fifth best players. In this game it was Keaton Grant, who has only six points per game on the season yet scored ten points over the final six minutes of this game to put Purdue's lead out of reach. Just about everybody jumped off the Purdue bandwagon when they lost three straight games back in January, and I got a lot of grief for leaving them as a 1 seed in my bracket, but it was so obvious to me that Purdue is the best team in the Big Ten. They have now grabbed back control of the conference, and have the opportunity to basically lock up the regular season title this week. If they can do that and then win the Big Ten tournament then it will be unlikely that they won't get a 1 seed. Even if they go down in the Big Ten tournament they're still probably looking at a 2 seed. As for Illinois, they remain in a tie for fourth place in the Big Ten at 9-5, but despite that they're still sitting on the bubble. They are only 6-8 against the RPI Top 100 with bad losses against Utah and Bradley, but good wins against Vanderbilt, Clemson, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Those nice wins will more than balance out the bad losses, but most worrisome is the Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 61st. They've got to get that up close to 50th, and I would think that three more wins this season would probably be enough. The worry will be if they go 2-2 over their final four games and then end up with Wisconsin or Michigan State in their first Big Ten tournament game, potentially needing a win to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.

UTEP 78, Tulsa 70
UTEP is really getting hot down the stretch here, although their resume is still very vulnerable to just one or two mediocre losses. Derrick Caracter is the most well-known player on the team to casual fans, and he's certainly had a remarkable transformation in terms of work ethic, attitude and on-court performance this season, but he's only one of several key players on a team with five players averaging double-digit points per game. Their leading scorer is Randy Culpepper, at 18 per game this season, who led all scorers with 29 points in this game. Tulsa is certainly an impressive team to beat on the road, but they do seem to be falling apart down the stretch and UTEP still doesn't have the elite wins that other teams fighting for at-large bids have. The Miners are 20-5, but only 1-2 against the RPI Top 60, with that one win coming against UAB. If they earn an at-large it will come on overwhelming total numbers and the fact that they've done a good job of taking care of business against teams in the RPI 60-150 range that so often trip up others (UTEP is 10-3 against those teams), with an 11-1 conference record, an RPI of 49th and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is all the way up to 41st. With numbers like that you'd have to say that UTEP would more likely than not make the Tournament if the season ended now, although they'd be only an 11 or 12 seed. The key for them will be finishing the regular season strong. If they lose even one of their final four regular season games then they'll be right on the bubble if they fall in the Conference USA tournament. As for Tulsa, they've fallen apart with three straight losses at one of the worst possible times, to fall to 8-5 in conference and 2-7 against the RPI Top 100, with computer numbers that have all fallen out of the Top 70. They probably need to win every single remaining regular season game to have any hope of an at-large bid should they fall in the C-USA tournament.

#2 Kentucky 58, Vanderbilt 56
John Wall stole the show again, making the key defensive play at the end of this game. Although once again it was Patrick Patterson who really held this game together for long stretches, with 13 points and 13 very important rebounds (the whole rest of the team combined for only 16 boards). It's a sign of how much the media hypes freshmen that more casual fans know who Eric Bledsoe is than Patrick Patterson. John Wall is a potential National Player of the Year, but Patterson is the second most important player on the team. But because he's a senior and not a big NBA prospect, nobody bothers to talk about him. Vanderbilt really struggled to score in this game, with only one player in double digits - who scored most of his points at the free throw line anyway (Jeffery Taylor). A.J. Ogilvy seemed particularly rattled by the physicality of Kentucky's post players. Even after this win Kentucky is rated as only the seventh best team in the country by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, but they're one of only two teams in the country that seem to be near locks for 1 seeds (along with Kansas, the best team in the nation). I do think that the fact that they've won so many close games is something of a detriment. You learn more from a close loss than a close win, particularly when you're young and inexperienced, as every key player on Kentucky other than Patterson is. Kentucky is going to need a friendly draw to make the Final Four, although that's certainly very possible with a 1 seed likely in their future. Vandy, meanwhile, continues to sit in the 5-8 seed range. They needed a win in a game like this to make a push into the discussion for a 3 or a 4 seed. It will probably take a nice winning streak to end the regular season, or else an SEC tournament title, to get a seed like that.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

W-3 BP65

Three weeks until Selection Sunday, with only about a week until conference tournaments begin.Less than two weeks until the start of conference tournaments. The next BP65 will be out after Wednesday night's games are all over.

Again I want to remind people to stay civil and to use facts and statistics. I allow comments because I like discussing college basketball. But the few who just want to angrily tell me that I must hate their team because how could I be stupid enough to rank them so low... don't bother. Also, please read About The BP65, because most of the people who flame make it clear that they don't know what the BP65 is or how teams are ordered.

For now, here's how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Villanova
2. West Virginia
2. Kansas State

3. Ohio State
3. Michigan State
3. BUTLER (HORIZON)
3. Wisconsin

4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Wake Forest
4. Pittsburgh
4. Georgetown

5. Baylor
5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Texas
5. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)

6. Tennessee
6. BYU
6. Vanderbilt
6. Maryland

7. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Missouri
7. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma State

8. Temple
8. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
8. Illinois
8. Louisville

9. Clemson
9. Dayton
9. Georgia Tech
9. Florida State

10. Virginia Tech
10. Richmond
10. UNLV
10. Saint Mary's

11. Florida
11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. Washington
11. SIENA (MAAC)

12. Cincinnati
12. San Diego State
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. UTEP

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)

15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Charlotte, Rhode Island, UConn, Minnesota, UAB, Mississippi

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Marquette, South Florida, Northwestern, Texas Tech, Wichita State, Arizona State, Mississippi State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Virginia, Saint Louis, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Northeastern, VCU, William & Mary, Marshall, Tulsa, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Miami (Fl), North Carolina, Duquesne, Rutgers, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa State, Southern Miss, Iona, Akron, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Arizona, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Portland, Nevada

Maryland Survives Ill-Timed Timeout

Maryland 76, Georgia Tech 74
Grievis Vasquez hit a miracle three-pointer to win the game at the buzzer, or so he thought. Gary Williams had actually called a timeout, which to be fair was a smart timeout - you couldn't have liked the odds on that Vasquez shot when it left his hand. But it didn't matter because Williams drew up a play and the ball ended in the hands of Cliff Tucker, who hit his own buzzer beater. Georgia Tech killed themselves at the line here, hitting only 55% for the game. Maryland now moves to 9-3 in ACC play, with a shot to win a share of the ACC title if they can beat Duke in College Park on March 3rd. As for Georgia Tech, all of the talent that they have hasn't kept them off the bubble, with a 6-7 ACC record. Their remaining schedule isn't so bad, but if they can't win more than one of those three games then they'll be on the bubble when they play their first ACC tournament game. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will actually be close to 40th in the morning, meaning that they're already on the bubble.

Oklahoma State 82, #22 Baylor 75
James Anderson probably deserves more credit as one of the elite players in the country than he's been getting. Every team knows that Oklahoma State is going to try to get him 25-30 points, and every team knows that they need to stop him, yet nobody succeeds. He blew up here for 31 points on 17 shots from the field, along with 12 rebounds. Baylor also struggled to get inside scoring production, which is a bit surprising when you consider that Oklahoma State is an undersized team. With this result in the books both of these teams are only 7-5 in the Big 12, but despite that there's no question that neither of these teams are particularly close to falling out of the Tournament. Oklahoma State is 5-7 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, and no bad losses. Their Sagarin rating is inside the Top 40. Baylor's numbers are even better, with a 9-5 record against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Xavier, Texas and Oklahoma State, and one weak loss against Colorado. Both teams would be safely in the bracket if the season ended now, and both should clinch an at-large bid if they can finish at least 2-2 down the stretch. Oklahoma State's final schedule is much more difficult, with a game against Kansas remaining, as well as road games at Texas and Texas A&M.

#17 Texas 71, Texas Tech 67
Texas is intent on proving that they're not going to fall apart like North Carolina, and they won here by getting a huge performance by Gary Johnson off the bench (22 points on 11 shots from the field, along with eight rebounds) in the place of Dexter Pittman (who fouled out in only 14 minutes on the floor). Texas Tech just does not have the bodies inside to hang with the Texas big men, who slaughtered them on the boards (17-to-4 advantage in offensive rebounds). Texas, like Baylor and Oklahoma State, is only 7-5 in the Big 12 but very much safely in the NCAA Tournament bracket. Texas would have to lose at least three of their final four regular season games to fall back to the bubble. If the season ended now they'd likely be a 4 or a 5 seed, and they have the opportunity to move up even further if they can take care of business down the stretch. As for Texas Tech, their at-large chances are getting long, with a 4-8 Big 12 record, and a 5-10 record against the RPI Top 100. Their Sagarin rating has fallen to near 70th in the country, and they'll have to finish at least 3-1 down the stretch to keep any plausible shot at an at-large alive. But with an easy remaining schedule, that's not out of the question.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Pitt Keeps Marquette On The Bubble

#21 Pittsburgh 58, Marquette 51
Marquette has gained a lot of momentum as a potential NCAA Tournament team over the past week or two, and could have moved into the bracket (at least for the time being) with a win here. But in the end the difference was inside play, where Marquette has been weak all season long. They play most of the time with what is effectively a four guard, one small forward lineup. Pitt is not nearly as big as they were last season, but defensively they absolutely controlled the paint, forcing a lot of long jumpers by Marquette. The few players who made it into the line had their shots blocked (Gary McGhee had six by himself). Pitt also did a good job of interior passing, something which they tend to be good of, with 19 assists on 23 made baskets. For Marquette, they fall to 7-6 in the Big East, with a 4-7 record against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Xavier, Georgetown and UConn, and a loss to DePaul. Their RPI is 68th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS rating is somewhere around 50th (we'll see what it is in the morning). There's no question that they would be out of the Field of 65 if the season ended now, but they're very close. One big win would put them right back in. As for Pitt, this effectively locks up their at-large bid. They would have to lose every game left between now and Selection Sunday to even have a chance of missing the Tournament, and obviously that is not going to happen.

#24 Northern Iowa 68, Old Dominion 60
This was a really difficult match-up for Northern Iowa. Their star 7-foot center Jordan Eglseder was suspended for the game, and Old Dominion is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Amazingly, UNI actually won the rebounding battle, on the back of inspired play from Adam Koch and Lucas O'Rear. Northern Iowa is now 24-3 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that has moved into the Top 20 in the nation. If the season ended now they'd be a 5 or a 6 seed, although I don't see them moving much higher. They don't have the Top 25 wins that the other teams competing for 3 and 4 seeds will have. As for Old Dominion, this damages but does not end their at-large chances. They're 21-8 with a 6-7 record against the RPI Top 100, with a win over Georgetown. Their computer numbers are all in the low-40s right now. They would have a tough time getting an at-large bid if they lost in the CAA tournament, unless they won every game between now and then, but they are in the discussion for a 12, or even an 11 seed if they can win the automatic bid.

Florida 64, Ole Miss 61
Other than at the free throw line, Florida really struggled to hit shots in this game. Despite hitting only one three pointer they entire game, the difference here was Vernon Macklin, who Ole Miss just could not guard in the paint. Florida pounded the ball inside, and Macklin scored 22 points on 8-for-11 shooting from the field. Ole Miss got a nice jolt off the bench from Terrance Henry, who from game-to-game seems to either be a non-factor or a star. For Florida, this win pushes them to 8-4 in the SEC and ever closer to an at-large bid. They have a very difficult remaining schedule (vs Tennessee, at Georgia, vs Vanderbilt, at Kentucky). A split in those four games should be sufficient to lock up that at-large bid. Ole Miss, meanwhile, falls to 5-7 in the SEC with a very mediocre 9-8 record against the RPI Top 200. Their only RPI Top 50 win came back in November, over Kansas State. With RPI and Sagarin ratings that have fallen out of the Top 50 there's no question that Mississippi would not be a Tournament team if the season ended now. They've got to at least split their final four SEC regular season games to stay alive in the bubble picture.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Syracuse Survives Georgetown

#5 Syracuse 75, #10 Georgetown 71
We've seen this movie before: Georgetown gets out to a horrible start and is down by double digits in the opening moments, then stages a furious comeback late in the game. In this game that comeback was sparked by the fourth foul committed by both Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson. With those two on the bench (both came on late in the game and quickly fouled out, and so Syracuse went through nearly ten minutes of the second half with neither big man on the floor) it was just a field day for Greg Monroe, who demanded the ball and led his team in a way he was unable to do last season as a freshman. But Syracuse just managed to hang on, and they temporarily grab a half-game lead over Villanova in the Big East. They are in a good position for a 1 seed at this point, and will probably get one if they can win the Big East tournament. As for Georgetown, they now fall to 8-6 in the Big East with two very tough road games still remaining (against Louisville and West Virginia). Of course, this Georgetown team is so up-and-down that they can easily lose at home to Notre Dame and then win on the road at West Virginia. But their Tournament seed has definitely taken a hit this week, and they could easily slip into the range of a 6-8 seed if they're not careful.

#19 Vanderbilt 82, Mississippi 78
Vanderbilt continues to grind out close wins, collecting this one on the back of some very clutch free throw shooting down the stretch. A.J. Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal combined to hit 19 of 20 free throws over the final 6:10 of the game, a pretty devastating performance as far as Ole Miss was concerned. And fairly surprising when you consider that the team only hits a shade under 71% on the season. But with three straight wins the Commodores are now 9-2 in the SEC and near a lock for second place in the SEC East. And with a home game against Kentucky tomorrow they have a chance to make a run at a 4 or even a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. As for Ole Miss, they've lost four of five games (none of those losses by more than ten points, by the way) to plummet to 5-6 in SEC play with a 5-7 record against the RPI Top 100. They are in real danger of falling out of the NCAA Tournament without a strong finish. With a weak remaining schedule (i.e. almost any loss would be a "bad" loss) they probably need to finish at least 4-1 or else there will be a real possibility that they'll take the floor for their first SEC tournament game on the outside of the field of 65.

Minnesota 68, #16 Wisconsin 52
Wisconsin got great news with Jon Leuer playing his first game in more than a month, but he looked very rusty here with a 2-for-12 shooting performance. Although the entire Wisconsin team failed to shoot well here. It seemed like they were a bit rattled by the two big Minnesota post players (Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson), who were mauling them on every rebound. I can't recall the last time I've seen Bo Ryan actually get a technical foul because he was arguing so strongly against the refs. But the refs weren't the difference here, it was just an awful performance by Wisconsin. But while this dashes any hopes they had at a Big Ten title, they never had a good shot at that anyway. Getting Leuer back and in shape for the Big Ten tournament and the NCAA Tournament is what they care about. This game meant a lot more for Minnesota, as this was one of the last chances for a big win for the Gophers before the Big Ten tournament. They remain 6-7 in the Big Ten with a horrid 8-9 record against the RPI Top 200. They will have to win three of their final five games to have any chance at an at-large bid, and probably need to go 4-1 or 5-0 to really like their chances.

Notre Dame Off The Bubble?

Louisville 91, Notre Dame 89, 2OT
There's a joke that always makes me chuckle, and it's that there are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and Notre Dame basketball on the Tournament bubble. The Irish put up a great fight here, but in the second overtime Louisville hung onto the lead with some clutch Samardo Samuels free throw shooting (6-for-6 in the period, 16-for-19 for the game). And while this is not a bad loss, the fact is that Notre Dame is running out of time for moral victories as they're arguably not even on the bubble right now. They've fallen to 6-8 in the Big East play and an atrocious 11-10 against the RPI Top 200 with a team RPI of 79th, and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 67th. Their schedule down the stretch is brutal, too: vs Pittsburgh, at Georgetown, vs UConn, at Marquette. I don't see any path to an at-large bid that doesn't involve winning at least two of those four games. As for Louisville, I do think that Rick Pitino is really starting to get his team where he wants it. He's famous for his team's slow starts and strong finishes, and it's possible that it might just have taken him an extra month or so this season to get that strong finish together. Samardo Samuels is starting to show why he was such a highly rated recruit, and the Cardinals really do have a nice deep bench (they are solid 11 players deep). Other than Samuels, they are not really harmed by any of their other players in foul trouble, because none are indispensable. At 8-5 in the Big East they should lock up an at-large bid if they can win three more games this season: either a 3-2 regular season finish, or a 2-3 regular season finish combined with a Big East tournament win.

Missouri 82, #17 Texas 77
We saw here that despite how good the Texas backcourt is, and despite how good Damion James is, they do really struggle when they can't get Dexter Pittman on the floor and when an opponent gets them out of what they like to do. Missouri did what they usually do to opponents: they forced turnovers (17 here) and got their opponents' big men in foul trouble (Dexter Pittman played only 12 minutes because of his foul trouble, and Damion James had to play down the stretch with four fouls as well). This win pushes Missouri up to 7-4 in the Big 12 and 5-5 against the RPI Top 50, and near the point where a team stops worrying about making the Tournament and begins to start worrying about their seed. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as the 13th best team in the country, which means that they could continue to move up the standings. With Texas falling back and Kansas State showing flaws as well, there's no reason Missouri can't finish as the second highest seed in the Big 12 (obviously Baylor and Texas A&M deserve to be in that discussion as well, of course). As for Texas, since being ranked #2 in the country they've lost six of their last nine games and are now only 6-5 in the Big 12. And their schedule is not easy ahead, with a game at a desperate Texas Tech team next, then at home against Oklahoma State, followed by a road game at red hot Texas A&M. And they close at Baylor. Believe it or not, it's possible that Texas could fall all the way to the bubble. I doubt that will actually happen, but the fact that it's even possible for Texas to miss the NCAA Tournament on February 19th after how good they looked in the first half of the season is fairly remarkable.

Saint Louis 62, Rhode Island 57
It's pretty unbelievable that the team with the seventh best resume in the Atlantic Ten has a better chance of making the NCAA Tournament than the team with the seventh best resume in the SEC or Pac-10, but it's true. Saint Louis is actually starting to get a little bit of bubble buzz after this win, with an A-10 record that is up to 8-3. That said, the Selection Committee is going to need a really good reason to overlook a 9-5 record against an out of conference schedule rated 288th by Pomeroy. They have losses to Bowling Green, George Washington and Iowa State, and their best out of conference win came over Nebraska. Their RPI is 84th, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 77th and their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR rankings are both outside the Top 100. So Saint Louis still has a huge uphill battle to becoming a really legitimate bubble team. But that said, Rick Majerus has done a fabulous job building this team through recruiting rather than quick-fix transfers, and he's got arguably the youngest team in the country (it depends how you define "youngest"). His boys have improved rapidly this season, and should be even better next year. As for Rhode Island, they've now lost three straight games, and the main culprit has been a defense that has totally fallen apart. They masked a mediocre defense all year with some uptempto pressing defense, but opponents are either figuring it out or Rhode Island's players are just wearing out. They're now 7-5 in conference play with a 4-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Despite these three losses they are still right on the bubble, and probably would be in the field of 65 if the season ended now. Their remaining regular season schedule is pretty easy, and they could easily win their final four games to be in a really good position for an at-large heading into the A-10 tournament.

Light Posting This Weekend

I'm going to go ahead and apologize in advance that posting will be a little bit light this weekend. I'll have some recaps Friday afternoon and evening, but I probably still won't be totally caught up by the time Saturday's games begin. And I will probably have no posting on Saturday until late in the evening.

The BP65 will come out as scheduled around 1AM eastern time after Saturday night's games. But it will probably be until Monday or Tuesday before I get totally caught up again on all of the weekend's results.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

W-3.5 BP65

Less than two weeks until the start of conference tournaments. The next BP65 will be out after Saturday night's games are all over.

Again I want to remind people to stay civil and to use facts and statistics. I allow comments because I like discussing college basketball. But the few who just want to angrily tell me that I must hate their team because how could I be stupid enough to rank them so low... don't bother. Also, please read About The BP65, because most of the people who flame make it clear that they don't know what the BP65 is or how teams or ordered.

For now, here's how I see things ending up:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Georgetown
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. West Virginia
3. Ohio State
3. Kansas State
3. Wisconsin

4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Texas
4. Michigan State
4. Wake Forest

5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Baylor
5. Pittsburgh
5. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)

6. Tennessee
6. BYU
6. Vanderbilt
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

7. Missouri
7. Maryland
7. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
7. Temple

8. Texas A&M
8. Georgia Tech
8. Illinois
8. Clemson

9. UNLV
9. Oklahoma State
9. Louisville
9. Washington

10. Dayton
10. Mississippi
10. Florida State
10. SIENA (MAAC)

11. Virginia Tech
11. Richmond
11. Saint Mary's
11. CORNELL (IVY)

12. Cincinnati
12. Florida
12. San Diego State
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)

15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Charlotte, Rhode Island, UConn, Marquette, Minnesota, UAB, UTEP

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Notre Dame, South Florida, Northwestern, Texas Tech, William & Mary, Tulsa, Wichita State, Arizona State, Mississippi State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Miami (Fl), North Carolina, Virginia, Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Northeastern, VCU, Marshall, South Carolina, Portland, Louisiana Tech

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Duquesne, Rutgers, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa State, Southern Miss, Wright State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Nevada

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Crushing Loss For Cincinnati

South Florida 65, Cincinnati 57
Dominique Jones isn't a national name yet, and he probably won't be a national name this season unless South Florida makes the NCAA Tournament, but he sure has turned a lot of heads in the Big East. He torched Cincy's defense here, getting to the free throw line 12 times and scoring 26 total points. He has scored 20 or more points in 10 of his last 12 Big East games, averaging more than 26 points per game over that stretch. And he's almost single-handedly pulling South Florida into serious at-large discussions. Their Big East record is now 6-7, and they're 5-8 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Georgetown and Pittsburgh, and only one bad loss (to Central Michigan). Their RPI is up to 57th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 56th. And both Sagarin and Pomeroy have them as right around the 60th best team in the nation, so their resume is not inconsistent with how good they are. Their remaining schedule really is not that bad either, with every game realistically winnable except for a road game at Villanova. Both Pomeroy and Sagarin give them at least a 55% chance of winning all of those games other than the one against Nova. Assuming they lose one of those four games they will still end up 9-9 in Big East play, giving them a plausible chance at an at-large bid if they can win a game or two in the Big East tournament. As for Cincinnati, they now fall to 6-7 in the Big East as well, and with an ELO_CHESS of 49th they are right on the bubble. They probably have to finish 3-2 over their final five games as well. Their next two games are essential to have against Marquette and DePaul, because their final three regular season games are at West Virginia, vs Villanova and at Georgetown.

Virginia Tech 87, #23 Wake Forest 83
Virginia Tech came into this game in a precarious situation, with a 20-4 record that came against a very weak schedule. That 20-4 record would have gotten them into the Tournament had the season already ended, but they are only one or two bad losses away from falling all the way out. The key for them down the stretch is collecting a big scalp or two, and they got a big scalp here. Beating Wake Forest may not be the same as beating Duke, but it's their only win right now over an RPI Top 25 team, and one of only two against the RPI Top 50 (the other came over Clemson). They are now 8-3 in the ACC and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 17th (although their PREDICTOR is only 39th). They should be safely into the NCAA Tournament if they can win two of their final five regular season games. As for Wake Forest, they got a big time performance here from Al-Farouq Aminu, with 25 points and 8 offensive rebounds. But their backcourt defense was bad, and they got torched by Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson, who combined for 52 points. Delaney and Hudson are two of the better backcourts out there, but if Wake Forest is going to make an NCAA Tournament run then they'll have to handle even better backcourts. The loss drops Wake Forest to 8-4 in the ACC, and they'd probably be a 5 or a 6 seed if the season ended now. If they can finish strong then they can make a run at a 4 seed, or even possibly a 3.

#4 Purdue 60, #12 Ohio State 57
Ohio State had their chances here. Not only did they have the homecourt advantage, but they also had Robbie Hummel on the bench for much of the game with foul trouble (he scored four points in 28 minutes played). But despite Hummel being completely shut out in the first half it was JaJuan Johnson who led the way with 15 points en route to a 13 point lead. And while Ohio State made their run in the second half, they could never quite grab the lead, and Purdue squeezed the life out of the game. Keaton Grant did a really nice job off the bench filling in for Hummel. It's also possible that Ohio State wore out a bit down the stretch, with four of their five starters playing all 40 minutes. But I just think that Purdue is simply the best team in the Big Ten. And while their RPI is still only 9th, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 6th and I view them as a favorite to grab a 1 seed. Unless they have a bad loss the rest of the way, or fail to win the Big Ten tournament, it's very unlikely that they won't get a 1. As for Ohio State, this loss drops them to 3rd place in the Big Ten with a road game at Michigan State up next. Although if they can pull the upset there, their remaining schedule isn't that bad at all, and they still have a shot at a 3 seed, or even a 2 seed if they can steal the Big Ten tournament.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

UConn Stays Alive At Villanova

Connecticut 84, #3 Villanova 75
This was a somewhat surprising result, but not as much as you might think. I talk sometimes here about sports betting, and when to bet on or against a team, and this was the type of game where you bet on UConn. UConn's resume is not good, but they're a quality team. More than anybody, they remind me of Florida State, another team with outstanding athletes and good defense that struggles offensively in the half court. This was the first game where they've had a full preparation with Jim Calhoun since he left for health reasons. Most importantly, this was a team backed up against a wall, staring at a 4-9 Big East record that would have been almost impossible to come back from. Now at 5-8, their March Madness odds are still not wonderful, but they're back in the bubble picture. They're 8-9 against the RPI Top 100 with a win over Texas to go with this win, and no particularly bad losses. Their RPI is back up to 50th, although their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is still back at 58th. If they can get to 8-10 in Big East play and then win at least one Big East tournament game then I think that gets them into the Dance. Three of those five final regular season games are on the road, but the two home games are against their two toughest remaining opponents (West Virginia and Louisville). They've obviously got to take care of Rutgers on the road, and then split those two home games to grab another RPI Top 50 win. As for Villanova, this hurts their chances at a 1 seed, but the fact that Syracuse lost also this week means that those two are still even in the battle for the Big East regular season title. Their next game is a big one at Pitt, but the Big East title will probably come down to their road game at Syracuse on February 27th. If Villanova can win a share of the Big East title and then win the Big East tournament then they should get a 1 seed.

Northwestern 77, Minnesota 74, OT
This was a brutal and killer loss for Minnesota. They led by 13 points with 7:30 to go, but let the lead slip away. And Northwestern squeezed the life out of the game in the overtime period by hitting 9 of 10 free throw attempts. The comeback was led by John Shurna, who played all 45 minutes in the game and scored 22 points on 6-for-13 shooting behind the arc. This was a near must-win for both teams, as both teams entered in at-large contention, but outside the Tournament if the season had already ended. Northwestern moves to 6-7 in Big Ten play with this win, but their resume is still pretty weak. They're 4-7 against the RPI Top 100 with a win over Purdue being their only against the Top 50, and an Iowa loss being their worst. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 61st, and their other computer ratings are worse. They need to collect at least one more RPI Top 50 win, and they've got to get to at least 9-9. Even that won't be enough without a good Big Ten tournament and some help. As for Minnesota, they are a team with a lot of talent that has had a lot of off-court problems, a lot of tough losses, and just a disappointing season in general. They should be much better than 14-10, which is where they sit right now. Their Sagarin PREDICTOR is still 27th, but their ELO_CHESS is 83rd, and it's getting late in the season to be too warmed by that PREDICTOR number. At 5-7 in the Big Ten they will have to finish at least 4-2 to get an at-large.

#1 Kansas 59, #23 Texas A&M 54
I don't think any team in the country has had more impressive tough, close wins than Kansas has had. Texas A&M has been one of the hottest teams in the country, and their crowd had them fired up, but Kansas is just too good. Kansas doesn't impress me as much as last year's North Carolina team did, but that team was the best we've seen in several years. This Kansas team will end up being one of the best of this decade, and anybody who is not ranking them #1 in the country should have their voting ballots taken away. As for the Aggies, this is a huge missed opportunity to really make a run at something like a 4 or a 5 seed. They're now 7-4 in the Big 12, and 7-7 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Baylor and Clemson. Their RPI is 18th and their ELO_CHESS is 22nd. They probably need two more wins to completely lock up an at-large bid, but with six wins in the seven games leading up to this one that should not be a problem.

Louisville Shocks Syracuse

Louisville 66, #3 Syracuse 60
With the way Louisville had struggled this season there were questions about Rick Pitino's coaching job, and whether he was affected by that scandal over the summer, or the talks about him leaving for the NBA. But he put in a magnificent performance here. Syracuse plays a zone better than any other team in the country, and if you don't come in prepared to attack it then they'll eat you alive. But the fact is that the zone is predictable, and no matter how well you execute the zone there are still weaknesses that can be attacked, and if you execute perfectly then you will get open shots. And that's what Louisville did, their guards did a great job of attacking the center of the zone, forcing the defense to collapse and opening up men on the perimeter or on the baseline. Louisville also played some nice zone themselves, which is the probably the correct way to play Syracuse. Syracuse is a mediocre outside shooting team, although at the same time they're a terrific rebounding team and a zone will allow more offensive boards. But Louisville executed well, and kept the Syracuse offense frustrated for most of the day. This is a huge win for Louisville, a team that entered this game right on the bubble. They are now 7-5 in the Big East, and 5-8 against the RPI Top 100 with this being by far their best win, and a loss to Western Carolina being their only bad loss. This win pushes their RPI up to 33rd, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS to 43rd. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but they don't have much room to spare. If they can split their final six regular season games and then win one game in the Big East tournament then that should be enough to get them in. As for Syracuse, this does damage to their hopes for a 1 seed. If they can get a share of the Big East title and then win the Big East tournament then they'll get a 1 seed, but without that tournament title then they might need to win the rest of their regular season games to still get that 1. It's unlikely that the Big East will get more than one of them, particularly with teams like Purdue and Duke coming on strong.

Portland 80, Saint Mary's 75
Portland had disappeared a bit after grabbing so much attention early in the season. Losses to Portland State and Idaho really killed the momentum they had after beating Oregon, UCLA and Minnesota in consecutive games (that UCLA win being a 29 point blowout on national television). But while their at-large chances are pretty much over, they are still in prime position to steal the WCC's automatic bid. This win ties them for the second fewest losses in the WCC regular season (three), giving them a real chance to grab the second seed and to have an easier path. Also, it seems likely that they'll end up with St. Mary's in the WCC semifinals, and so the win here will give them confidence that they can win again. As for St. Mary's, this win throws them right back onto the bubble. They are 21-5 and 5-5 against the RPI Top 100, but their only RPI Top 50 wins came over Utah State and San Diego State, and came more than two months ago. They don't have any bad losses, but their weak schedule really hurts their computer numbers: their RPI is 46th and their ELO_CHESS is 37th. They'd be one of the last teams into the Tournament, or one of the first teams out, if the season ended now. But what they have going for them is a very easy schedule for their final three regular season games, and for their first WCC tournament game. If they can get to the WCC tournament finals (presumably by beating Portland) then even a loss to Gonzaga would leave them 26-6 with no losses outside the RPI Top 90, and likely at least one win over another Tournament team. I'm fairly certain that no team from an RPI Top 15 conference has ever missed out with 26+ wins, and Saint Mary's wouldn't either. If they can win their next five games then they'll make the Tournament.

#16 Ohio State 72, Illinois 53
Illinois had won so many good games in a row that they were due for a letdown game, and they had one here. Ohio State played well, of course, but Illinois also just couldn't hit a shot. They hit 34% from the field, 17% behind the arc, and even just 50% at the line. Nothing was going in. They even dominated the boards (15 offensive rebounds, to only 2 for Ohio State), and it still was a blowout. But despite coming into this game tied for the fewest losses in the Big Ten, even the biggest Illinois fans knew that they didn't have any real chance at a conference title. They had feasted on an easy schedule in the first half of the season, and their final month was always going to be brutal. They had started with huge wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin, but after this loss they still have road games at Purdue and Ohio State, and also have another game against Wisconsin. But just a couple of weeks ago this Illinois team was a true bubble team, and for the time being they look in good shape with a 9-4 Big Ten record. Their computer numbers are not good because of a weak out-of-conference performance (an 8-5 record against an OOC strength of schedule of 135th, according to Pomeroy), so they will probably need to finish 11-7 to make the Tournament. So they still have work to do, but they've put themselves in a good position.