Friday, February 27, 2015

Morning News: What's Ahead, Minnesota Wins A Wild Game, Kevin Stallings And Jordan McLaughlin



Utah had more blocks (10) than ASU had points in the 1st half.


What's Ahead On a slow night of college basketball, I wanted to give you all some quick words on what the plans are for this blog over its busiest part of the year: the next six weeks or so. First, I've decided that I don't quite have the time to pump out previews for all of the conference tournaments, so I won't be posting those this year. But I will start the daily Bubble Watch again on Sunday, continuing it for the two weeks through to Selection Sunday.

In addition, I am going to start working on my 2015-16 conference previews today. Yes, today. They take a ton of work, and I hope to start rolling them out on March 23rd or 24th, just before the Sweet 16 games tip off. In the past, I have always posted my preseason bracket projection one week after the title game, which this year would be April 13th. I'll try to get it done even earlier this year, though I can't promise it. If you're new to the blog this season, you can click on this past season's conference previews which are still on the upper right hand corner of this page to see what is ahead.

Minnesota Wins A Wild Game This game was just wild down the stretch, and Michigan State fans surely can't understand how their team blew this one. Minnesota entered this game 2-7 in Big Ten games decided by six points or fewer, so everybody was firing up their "Minnesota can't win close games" narrative, but it was Michigan State that messed up late. First, up by three points in the closing seconds they fouled Carlos Morris in the process of hitting a three-pointer. Morris missed the free throw that would have won the game in regulation, and they went to overtime. In overtime, Travis Trice, normally a good free throw shooter, missed four of six at the line. Minnesota was able to grab the early lead and hit enough free throws down the stretch to hang on.

Minnesota is now 6-10 in Big Ten play with this win. Last season, an 8-10 Big Ten team would have had a strong bubble case, but not this year. Unless Minnesota wins out all the way to the Big Ten tournament game, it's hard to see any scenario where they're in the bubble mix on Selection Sunday.

Michigan State drops to 10-5 in Big Ten play with a tough finishing stretch, including a road game at Wisconsin on Sunday. It's worth noting that they still only have two RPI Top 50 wins, so Michigan State isn't a complete Tourney lock yet. They need another win or two to be fully safe.

Kevin Stallings Berates Wade Baldwin This was a "controversy" where it felt like everybody was just going through the motions. I don't think anybody was actually really bothered by what happened. In short, Wade Baldwin was taunting some Tennessee players late in this game fairly blatantly. Stallings shouted at him in view of the camera, with the offending line being "I’ll ****ing kill you". Those words are a bit too strong, but anybody who has played high level college sports has been called pretty bad things by a coach, and if anything you respect Stallings for getting angry about his own team taunting and wanting them to respect their opponent.

Jordan McLaughlin Done For The Season This isn't the first injury problem for Andy Enfield's star recruit at USC. It's not that this season is going anywhere anyway, but this is the sort of injury where you wonder if it might impact him next season as well. The Andy Enfield Media Honeymoon appears to have ended this season, and if the Trojans don't become a competitive middle-of-the-pack Pac-12 team next season, the whispers will start to call for Enfield's job.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Morning News: New Bracket, Richmond Wins A Thriller, Baylor Wins At Iowa State, Northwestern Knocks Off Indiana, And More

Um.

New Bracket Projection Virginia moves up to a projected 1 seed, replacing Wisconsin. There were also four changes to the Field of 68 itself. Purdue, Cleveland State, Central Michigan and North Florida move in, while Illinois, Green Bay, Toledo and Florida Gulf Coast drop out. For all the details, click the link.

Richmond Beats VCU In A Thriller This was easily the game of the night. Just a really fun, hard fought game. Trying to say which team "deserved" to win a game like this is an exercise in futility. In regulation, Treveon Graham hit a deep three-pointer to tie up the game, and then Richmond came oh so close to winning at the buzzer:
In overtime, it was VCU that led by three points in the closing seconds and they chose to intentionally foul. Shawndre' Jones did a good job of hitting the first and getting a long bounce while missing the second, knocking the ball out of bounds off VCU. Richmond then ran a great baseline out-of-bounds play to get a layup for TJ Cline for the tie. In the second overtime, Treveon Graham tried to hit a jumper to send the game to a third overtime, but Deion Taylor got the block to seal it.

The Atlantic Ten is now plugged up with a four-way tie atop the standings, including VCU. VCU's next two games will be against two of the teams they're tied with (Dayton and Davidson), and they still control their own destiny for the 1 seed in the Atlantic Ten tournament if they win out.

Richmond is now 9-6 in Atlantic Ten play, with an RPI that has slid up to 65th. They're not realistically going to earn an at-large bid, but it's a solid season, and they're going to return everybody from their regular rotation but Kendall Anthony next season.

Baylor Wins At Iowa State It's going to take a good team playing really well to win at Iowa State, and Baylor shot the lights out here. They hit 14-for-26 (54%) behind the arc, compared to just 39% on two-pointers. The key stretch started with around 8 minutes to go, when Baylor hit six consecutive three-pointers, including three by Taurean Prince, who led Baylor with 20 points. Iowa State was also limited in the easy baskets that they tend to rely on, getting just 2 fast break points.

Iowa State had a chance to tie Kansas atop the Big 12 standings here. Kansas will likely lose again, though, so if Iowa State can win out then they will still have a good chance for that share of the conference title.

Baylor has won three straight games to get to 9-6 in Big 12 play and 6-5 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI up to 11th. They are very much in the conversation for a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament,

Northwestern Knocks Off Indiana Welsh-Ryan is a house of horrors for Tom Crean, who dropped to 4-8 in his career against Northwestern with this loss. Indiana is now 7-3 against Pomeroy Top 20 opponents when hitting above 40% behind the arc while just 3-7 when shooting 40% or worse. They are heavily dependent on the three (31 of their 63 attempted shots here were from behind the arc), and their defense is the worst in the Big Ten (Northwestern cruised to 1.24 PPP here). Northwestern was led by Tre Demps, who had 23 points on 8-for-12 shooting. Northwestern has won four straight Big Ten games now for the first time since 1967, which seems an almost impossibly long streak.

Indiana drops to 9-7 in Big Ten play, with five RPI Top 50 wins and this as their first loss to a team outside the RPI Top 75. Their RPI itself is sitting 36th. So Indiana would certainly be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but they'll be in trouble if they lose one of these two remaining home games (against Iowa and Michigan State). If they lose one, then they're going to need to win at least one game in the NCAA Tournament or they'll need some help to miss the NIT.

Iowa Holds Off Illinois This was a battle between two potential bubble teams desperately in need of a win. But more than anything, it was a frustrating shooting day for Illinois, particularly in the second half. In that second half they hit just 25% of their three-pointers as well as just 25% of their two pointers, scoring just 0.88 PPP. Iowa never could pull away, but Illinois did not have the firepower to catch up either. Aaron White led the way for Iowa with 29 points on 8-for-13 shooting.

Iowa is closing in on a Tournament bid, but they have work to do. Now 9-6, they'd be in good shape if they get to 11-7, but not a lock. They'd want to avoid a one-and-done performance in the Big Ten tournament.

Illinois is in a more precarious situation, now 7-8 in Big Ten play and 5-10 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that has slid to 59th. They have some good wins (Baylor, Michigan State and Maryland), but it's going to be tough to get in with a 9-9 Big Ten record and an RPI outside the Top 50. So really, that road game to close the season at Purdue will be absolutely crucial for Illinois to strengthen their resume and also to damage a rival bubble team from their own league.

Georgia Wins At Ole Miss Georgia and Mississippi both have a chance to be stuck on the bubble on Selection Sunday, but Georgia went a long way toward lowering the stress levels of their fans on Selection Sunday with this road win. Their victory was driven primarily by outside shooting, where they hit 11-for-23 behind the arc. Kenny Gaines was 4-for-7 himself, and he also led all scorers with 22 points. Mississippi, in contrast, had only a 31.0 eFG% in the first half, creating a double-digit hole that they were unable to dig out of.

Georgia's RPI (30th) is obviously inflated, as they're just 8-5 against the RPI Top 100 with four RPI 100+ losses and zero wins against the RPI Top 30. But still, no team from a major conference is realistically going to miss the NCAA Tournament if their RPI is that high. Obviously if they beat Kentucky they'll be safe, but if they lose to Kentucky and win those other two games, I think winning a single game in the SEC tournament should be enough.

This loss dropped Mississippi's RPI from the low-30s all the way to 43rd. Their resume is similar to Georgia, including a few bad losses and zero RPI Top 25 wins. It's the type of soft resume that requires a really good RPI to get in. And unless they win their final three regular season games (unlikely, considering the schedule), Mississippi will have to win a game (or possibly two) in the SEC tournament to get back inside the RPI Top 40.

W-2.5 BP68

The last few days have had a slew of important results, and that has led to changes up and down the bracket.

Starting from the top, we have a new projected 1 seed in Virginia, who played incredibly well against Wake Forest despite being down two starters. Wisconsin drops to a 2 seed.

Further down, there is one new projected at-large team, and it's Purdue. They replace fellow Big Ten team Illinois. In some sense, the bubble got a little bit larger this week. Teams like Indiana and Texas suffered tough losses while teams like Boise State and UCLA kept on winning.

Three projected auto bids changed as well. Cleveland State is the new Horizon favorite, replacing Green Bay (I'm fairly certain, unless I'm reading the rules incorrectly, that Cleveland State will get the #1 seed in the Horizon tourney if they beat Valparaiso at home on Friday). In addition, Central Michigan is the new MAC favorite, replacing Toledo. And North Florida is the new Atlantic Sun favorite, replacing Florida Gulf Coast.

In addition, six teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Evansville, Florida State, La Salle, Nebraska, South Carolina and Washington State. That leaves 36 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
3. Iowa State

4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Baylor
4. Northern Iowa
4. SMU (AAC)

5. Louisville
5. Notre Dame
5. Georgetown
5. Maryland

6. Arkansas
6. West Virginia
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Butler

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Michigan State
7. Xavier
7. Ohio State

8. Providence
8. Oklahoma State
8. Colorado State
8. Cincinnati

9. Temple
9. Dayton
9. St. John's
9. Georgia

10. Mississippi
10. Davidson
10. Indiana
10. Iowa

11. Texas
11. LSU
11. NC State
11. Stanford
11. Miami-Florida

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Purdue
12. Texas A&M
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. IONA (MAAC)

13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)

14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
14. WOFFORD (SOCON)

15. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Boise State, UCLA, Oregon, BYU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Old Dominion, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Connecticut, Clemson, UMass, Rhode Island, Richmond, Minnesota, UTEP, Alabama

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, George Washington, Seton Hall, Michigan, Kansas State, TCU, Green Bay, Valparaiso, Buffalo, Toledo, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Washington, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Morning News: Maryland Knocks Off Wisconsin, NC State Earns A Massive Win, Texas Falls To West Virginia, And More

Nothing like the fun of a court storming.
The anti-court storming School Marms can shove it.


Maryland Knocks Off Wisconsin Wisconsin dug themselves a hole here with some awful first half shooting. They hit just 3-for-20 on jump shots in the first half, falling behind by 11 points. They shot 9-for-18 on jump shots in the second half, pulling within 3 points in the final minute, but couldn't get over the hump. The Badgers got just 2 points in 22 minutes played by their bench, which is going to get a lot better when starting point guard Traevon Jackson comes back. Maryland was powered by Dez Wells, who scored 26 points on 9-for-17 and seemed like a match-up nightmare no matter who Wisconsin put on him.

Maryland is now 11-4 in Big Ten play with an RPI all the way up to 9th, which is starting the hype machine. Yet their Pomeroy rating is still 35th, and their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 34th. Why are the computer ratings so out of whack with public perception? Because Maryland is now 9-0 in games decided by six points or fewer. Via the Pomeroy ratings, they are the second luckiest team in the entire nation, behind only High Point. They are just 7th in the Big Ten in efficiency margin, at +0.01 PPP. In other words, Maryland could earn themselves a 4 or 5 seed (or even a 3, maybe) on Selection Sunday, but they're the perfect candidate for an early upset.

Wisconsin was inevitably going to lose a game with this killer closing stretch. They still control their own destiny for a 1 seed if they win out, but winning out is unlikely. Unless they get significant help, it will be difficult for the Badgers to earn a 1 seed without a Big Ten tournament title.

NC State Earns A Massive Win North Carolina has had some bad shooting days this year, and their half court offense can get very stagnant, but this was the worst they've been plugged up all season. NC State held them to a season low in possessions (60) and in offensive efficiency (0.77 PPP). The Tar Heels had just a 37.3 eFG%. The 46 points North Carolina scored were their lowest ever in the Dean Dome.
NC State fans, uh, celebrated their win last night.

This was obviously a nightmare game that North Carolina will want to forget. They're not going to score 46 points in a game again this season. But a direct impact of this game, besides just the hit to their Tournament resume, is that it drops them a game behind Louisville for 4th place in the ACC with a tough finishing schedule. Remember that the top four teams in the ACC standings will earn double-byes to the quarterfinals.

For NC State, this is the type of win that could put them into the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday. They also have that win over Duke and are 8-7 in ACC play and 8-10 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that has moved into the Top 40. If the season ended now they'd certainly be a Tournament team. If they can win two of their final three ACC games and then one game in the ACC tournament, that really should make them fairly safe.

Texas Falls To West Virginia Texas started fouling early and aggressively to try to overcome a significant deficit, just as they had done against Iowa State on Saturday. It's a smart strategy to increase the number of possessions and random variance. But West Virginia wouldn't play along, hitting 11 of 12 at the free throw line over the final 3 minutes, despite only being a 66% free throw shooting team for the season. Texas unsurprisingly found themselves in trouble due to turnovers (17) against West Virginia's aggressive press and trap.

Texas is now just 6-9 in Big 12 play and 1-10 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI that is only 43rd. If they can't get to 8-10 in Big 12 play (not easy considering that their next game is on the road at Kansas) then they're going to need to win at least a game or two in the Big 12 tournament to avoid the NIT. But that said, this Texas team will be awfully scary if they can sneak into the NCAA Tournament. They're 22nd in Pomeroy and 18th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. They'd be favored by 2-3 points on a neutral court against a Maryland team many think will earn a 3 seed. So if they earn an 11 seed, they'd be comparable to the Tennessee team last season that had similar computer numbers and made an Elite 8 run. Definitely not a team you'd want in your region.

West Virginia is no longer worried about bubble concerns. They are 10-5 in Big 12 play and playing for NCAA Tournament seed only. If the season ended now they'd be right around a 6 seed, but they could potentially play their way into a 4 seed with a strong finish.

Notre Dame Falls To Syracuse The Irish had their worst outside shooting day of the season here. They hit just 14% of their three-pointers, which was easily a season low. Their 37.8 eFG% was also their first game this season with an eFG% under 40%. Jerian Grant, for one, was just 2-for-9 from the field. Syracuse has, interestingly enough, been playing their best basketball of the season since announcing that they were forgoing their postseason eligibility. They've now beaten Louisville and Notre Dame in two of their last three games. Their Pomeroy rating has risen from 78th to 58th over the last two weeks.

Notre Dame has an interesting road game up next Wednesday on the road at a shorthanded Louisville team that is going to be easier to defeat than they looked a few days ago. If they can steal that one, they will keep alive their hope of a share of the ACC regular season title. Syracuse gets a chance to play spoiler for both Duke and Virginia over the next week. The way they're playing, don't be surprised if they win at least one of those two games.

Villanova Routs Providence This game was briefly competitive around halftime, but Villanova pushed their lead up to 25 points by midway through the second half, and the rout was on. Darrun Hilliard (6-for-11 behind the arc) had another big shooting day for Villanova, while Kris Dunn was totally shut down (2-for-10 from the field with 7 assists and 6 turnovers). Villanova as a team hit 52% behind the arc. This was pretty much the Villanova Wildcats at their best.

The momentum is growing for Villanova as a 1 seed. They lack really big scalps (VCU, Providence, Georgetown or Butler is their best win), but their RPI is up to 4th and they're going to be really hard to keep off the 1 line if they reach Selection Sunday with only 2 losses. They've got a long way to go, though. A road game at a surging Xavier on Saturday will be tough, and the Big East tournament will have multiple pitfalls.

Providence's RPI (22nd) is inflated, but they're still safely in the NCAA Tournament after this loss. One more win will probably be enough to keep them safe for Selection Sunday. But that said, they're just sixth in the Big East in efficiency margin (+0.01 PPP), so the computers don't think they're likely to make an NCAA Tourney run.

Arkansas Holds Off Texas A&M Texas A&M could not control the ball in the first half, committing a staggering 16 turnovers (a 44% turnover rate) and trailing by 23 points. Yet in the second half, they attacked the Arkansas press as well as the glass, scoring 1.49 PPP. But it all added up to coming up just barely short in the final minute. It turns out it's tough to dig out of a 23 point halftime hole. Texas A&M actually rebounded 63% of their missed shots for the game, which is the most by a major conference team this season against another major conference team (the most in any D1 vs D1 game was 69% by New Mexico State against Stetson). But Arkansas parlayed 12 steals into 27 points off turnovers, and that made the difference.

Texas A&M needed this win much more than Arkansas. They are 10-5 in SEC play, but 0-6 against the RPI Top 50. Their RPI (31st) is obviously inflated. History says that major conference teams inside the RPI Top 40 almost always get in, so that is the mark the Aggies have to aim for. They can get there by winning their final three regular season games, but if they lose one more game then they'll have to win a game or two in the SEC tournament.

Arkansas is up to 23-5 overall with an RPI that is all the way up to 16th. The lack of big wins (SMU is their best) means that they'd be a 5 or 6 seed if the season ended now, but they could work their way up to a 4 seed with a strong finish. If they can somehow pull the massive upset at Rupp Arena on Saturday that will completely transform expectations for their NCAA Tournament potential.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Morning News: Kansas State Knocks Off Kansas, St. John's Beats Xavier, Louisville Holds Off Georgia Tech, And LJ Rose Is Done

Georgia Tech lost, but this was still the play of the night.

Kansas State Knocks Off Kansas Kansas State had lost 7 of 8 and almost certainly will fail to qualify for even the NIT, so this game was their Super Bowl, and they played like it. Nino Williams couldn't get jump shots to fall, but he attacked the rim without fear. Nigel Johnson was a spark off the bench, hitting 4-for-5 behind the arc. But more importantly, their defense shut down Kansas, holding them to a 41.1 eFG% and 0.95 PPP. Bruce Weber teams historically are known for their defense, yet this Kansas State team has been an exception. Via Pomeroy, this is the worst defensive team Weber has coached since he took the Illinois job more than a decade ago. But they turned back the clock with a stellar performance here.

While this was an upset, this isn't exactly Texas Southern over Michigan State. Kansas State was only a 6 point underdog in Vegas. And it was partially because they're a decent team stuck in the best conference in basketball, but also because Kansas is a bit overrated. Their resume speaks for itself, of course, but they also entered this game 6-3 in games decided by six points or fewer. They could easily have two or three more losses if some luck went against them.

To be clear, I still think Kansas is the best team in the Big 12. But they're a step below the Kentucky/Duke/Virginia/Wisconsin/Arizona/Gonzaga tier of teams, and they weren't as far ahead of the pack in the Big 12 as the conference standings suggested ten days ago. If Kansas ends up tied for the conference title with Oklahoma or Iowa State, it wouldn't be a terribly unjust result.

St. John's Beats Xavier This game was fun for the entire second half, really. These two teams went back and forth, never able to separate from each other. But more than anybody, it was Sir'Dominic Pointer making the big plays down the stretch for St. John's, on both ends of the court. He finished with a stat-stuffing 19 points, 9 rebounds, 6 blocks, 4 steals and 3 assists. I've said this before, but I think you have to find a spot on First Team All-Big East for Pointer. Still, Xavier did have a chance on their final possession, but they executed poorly and ended up with just a tough, off-balance, contested jumper for Myles Davis which missed.

St. John's needed this win more than Xavier did. Xavier is still in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament, but the Johnnies had to get at least one win in this home stretch against Xavier and Georgetown or they'd be staring the NIT in the face. They now have that win. If they can beat Georgetown on Senior Day on Saturday they'll have their ninth Big East wins. That won't put them safely in the NCAA Tournament yet, but it'll put them in really good shape.

Xavier is 8-8 in Big East play and 5-5 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI that is still 30th, though that RPI is a bit inflated (they've only played two RPI 200+ opponents). If they can beat Villanova on Saturday they'll be safely in the NCAA Tournament. If they fail to, though, they'll need to win at Creighton the following weekend to avoid serious trouble.

Louisville Holds Off Georgia Tech I wouldn't normally use a Morning News post talk about a team like Louisville beating a 3-12 team in their conference, but it's worth pointing out that this was an impressive win, and it put to bed a lot of ridiculous panic on social media during this game. The reality is that Georgia Tech is much better than their record (they are now an incredible 0-11 in ACC games decided by seven points or fewer), and their ability to get after the glass was always going to cause troubles for Louisville. Considering that the Pomeroy ratings only projected this a three point spread without taking into account Chris Jones being kicked off the team, this was really a toss-up game when it tipped off.

So, while social media was talking about Louisville being a bubble team with Georgia Tech winning this game, I was already preparing a "Don't panic about Louisville losing this game" paragraph in this Morning News post. But down the stretch, Louisville started hitting shots (they hit 5 of their final 7 three-pointers) and Georgia Tech didn't (they were 0-for-10 on three-pointers before Tadric Jackson hit one at the buzzer).

Louisville is not the same team without Chris Jones. But they're still, in my opinion, one of the 25 best teams in the country. The test in the final week of the regular season will be winning at home against either Notre Dame or Virginia. If they fall in both games, that will cause them to drop a few seed lines on Selection Sunday, and it will give their fans zero confidence for their chances of a long NCAA Tourney run.

LJ Rose Done For The Season As Houston's only real point guard, this is a significant blow to Houston. The silver lining is that their season wasn't going anywhere with him anyway. They are 1-13 in AAC play. Kelvin Sampson knew he was walking into a total rebuild, and this season will mercifully be over for him soon enough. We'll see what he can do in Year #2.

Monday, February 23, 2015

Morning News: Oregon Stuns Utah, Tulsa Smokes Temple, Michigan Holds Off Ohio State, And More

Hey, a court storming!
Oregon Stuns Utah Dillon Brooks was the star here, scoring 11 straight points for Oregon to hold off a furious Utah run late. Brooks was able to attack the paint, against arguably the best interior defense in the nation (the 48% shooting Utah allows at the rim is identical to Kentucky). They fought to a 22-to-22 draw in points in the paint.

This is a big win for an Oregon team that has been surprisingly feisty considering all of the offseason turmoil and roster losses. Dana Altman has probably done his best coaching job at Oregon. And they're now 10-5 in Pac-12 play, with an RPI all the way up to 44th. They close the season with three road games, but if they can somehow win two of three then they will have a legitimate case on Selection Sunday.

Utah can forget about this loss by sweeping their home series against the Arizona teams next week. Their home game against Arizona will be particularly crucial for them making the case for a 2 seed on Selection Sunday.

Tulsa Smokes Temple This was a nightmare game for Temple offensively.  They shot a staggering 8-for-49 (16.3%) on jump shots, including 1-for-14 behind the arc. Temple's shooting (25.4 eFG%) and offensive efficiency (0.60 PPP) were both their worst in a game in at least 17 years. When you have your worst offensive day in a couple of decades or so, you're probably not going to win.

Tulsa has been a team getting too much at-large love from the media considering their resume. This is a big win for them, but they still are only 4-5 against the RPI Top 100 with two awful losses. Their RPI (39th) doesn't include that non-Division I loss to SE Oklahoma State. Now that said, history says that the Selection Committee isn't going to properly punish Tulsa for that non-DI loss (it's one of many reasons why teams should replace cupcakes on their schedule with non-DI opponents), so Tulsa could sneak into the Tourney, but only if they finish the season strong. Their schedule is really backloaded. That road game at Memphis on Saturday could make the difference.

Temple is quietly just 9-9 against the RPI Top 200, and their RPI (31st) is clearly inflated. But that said, those losses in non-conference play will be significantly less important than what they've done in conference play. Unlike Tulsa they have a very soft closing schedule. If they can take care of business in those final three games then they should be in good shape.

Michigan Holds Off Ohio State Ohio State has had a rough stretch in Michigan. Their last two games have been road losses at Michigan State and now Michigan. The Buckeyes fought back from 31-11 here, but just couldn't hit enough jump shots. They hit just 5-for-19 behind the arc. Michigan was led by a 16 point, 5 assist, 0 turnover performance from Spike Albrecht.

Ohio State is just 8-6 in Big Ten play despite outscoring opponents by 0.09 PPP in Big Ten play, which is hard to do. A 2-5 record in games decided by six points or fewer will do that. But their closing stretch of games is ideally set up for a strong finish. That home finale against Wisconsin is a huge chance to slide a couple of seed lines.

Illinois Comes Up Short Michigan State melted down the stretch here. They committed six turnovers in eight possessions at one stretch. But Illinois was 0-for-11 on jump shots over the final 5:35 of the game. For the game they had a 30.8 eFG%, which was their worst shooting day since January 6th, 2007.

If Illinois misses the NCAA Tournament, they'll look back on this loss. They're now just 7-7 in Big Ten play and their RPI has fallen back out of the Top 50. Unless they can get to 10-8 (which would mean winning at least one of two tough road games at Iowa and Purdue) they're going to have significant work to do in the Big Ten tournament.

Michigan State has won four straight to get to 10-4 in Big Ten play and to push their RPI into the Top 30, though they have only two RPI Top 50 wins and no really big scalps. So their resume isn't as strong as you might think it is, but they still should be pretty safe.

Chris Jones Dismissed It's been quit a week for the Chris Jones saga, but it appears to finally be over. He was suspended indefinitely, then reinstated, and now dismissed. Chris Jones is a frustrating player to watch, because he has so much talent and looks so great in brief stretches, but he also takes terrible shots that just kill Louisville. He had a 44.4 eFG% this season. Louisville was already short on offensive options, and it's hard to see how this news doesn't make them worse, but it would be a mistake to give up on this team's potential to get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Their defense will remain ferocious.

Tim Miles Locks His Team Out Tim Miles is trying something new to get through to his struggling team: locking them out of the locker room and practice facility. I suppose it can't hurt. The stats said that Nebraska was significantly overrated with that Top 25 rating preseason, but nobody had any idea their offense would be this awful. Miles had to try something to change things up.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Morning News: New Bracket, West Virginia Runs Past Oklahoma St, Iowa St Holds Off Texas, Louisville Comes Back, And More

In a competitive game with an at-large bid on the line? Damn.

New Bracket Projection It was a slow Saturday of games, and so there weren't too many changes to the bracket. I talk in the bracket projection about the 1 seed debate. In addition, there was one change to the Field of 68, with Texas A&M moving in and BYU dropping out.

West Virginia Runs Past Oklahoma State In a weird scheduling quirk, this was actually the only game between two ranked team yesterday. But it was an ugly one for Oklahoma State fans. In a lot of ways, West Virginia is a nightmare opponent for them. The Mountaineers lead the nation in defensive turnover rate and are 6th in offensive rebounding rate, but their offense gets ugly if they don't get easy transition baskets and second-chance points. Oklahoma State is a team that plays right into their hands, with a small front court that struggles to rebound and only one real point guard (Anthony Hickey). Oklahoma State committed 15 turnovers and allowed West Virginia to rebound 53% of their misses. West Virginia had 39 points that either came off turnovers or were second chance points, compared to just 18 for Oklahoma State.

A week ago, West Virginia was looking like a potential bubble team, but a win over Kansas and a road win over Oklahoma State have put all of that to bed. They're 9-5 in Big 12 play, and unless they lose every game between now and Selection Sunday they should be safe.

Oklahoma State is just 7-8 in Big 12 play, but they have a road game at Texas Tech up next, followed by a home game against TCU, and they have 6 wins against the RPI Top 50. If they can take care of business in those Texas Tech and TCU games, they should be safe.

Iowa State Holds Off Texas In general, teams wait far too long to start fouling when they're down by six to twelve points late in a game. The goal should be to use all of the one-and-ones by fouling guys who shoot poorly, increase the number of possessions, and give yourself a chance. And despite the ESPN2 announcers dumping on the Texas strategy of starting to foul down by ten points with four minutes to go, Texas did give themselves a real shot down the stretch here. They pulled within four points with around a minute to go, but ended up missing their last four three-point attempts. They put themselves in a position to win, they just couldn't hit the jump shots.

Iowa State was powered by hot 12-for-21 three-point shooting here, which allowed them to overcome the 34-24 scoring advantage Texas had in the paint. And they're now hanging in just one game behind Kansas in the Big 12 standings with an easier closing schedule. They could still steal a share of the regular season title.

Texas is now 6-8 in Big 12 play with a brutal road trip up for next week, at West Virginia and Kansas. The Longhorns are also just 1-9 against the RPI Top 50, though that Iowa win could sneak into the Top 50 as well. If Texas drops those two road games next week, they're likely going to have to win those final two home games to avoid falling into the NIT. Texas could potentially go 7-11 in Big 12 play while still earning an at-large bid, but they'll need to go on a run in the Big 12 tournament and they'll need some help.

Louisville Comes Back To Beat Miami A peculiar play happened in the first half here, when Montrezl Harrell launched a rebound off the face of Tonye Jekiri, picking up a technical foul, but sending Jekiri to the locker room where he ended up missing the first few minutes of the second half. You can watch the play below. And while Jekiri came back, the undersized Miami front line coughed up a ten point lead. Louisville locked down defensively in that second half, holding Miami to 0.80 PPP. The Hurricanes had two chances in the final 30 seconds to get a game winner, but both possessions were poorly executed.
This game is a relief to Louisville fans after losing three of four. I actually saw some talk on social media about them falling to the bubble. But with Chris Jones back, they should be in a good position to finish the season strong at home against Notre Dame and Virginia. They should win at least one of those two games, and I'd be pretty surprised if they end up lower than a 5 seed.

This was a huge missed opportunity for Miami. They have that win over Duke, but it's their only big win and they're just 11-10 against the RPI Top 200, with an RPI that has slipped to 67th. If the season ended now they'd very likely be in the NIT. To get into the NCAA Tournament, they probably need to win three of their final four regular season games plus a game or two in the ACC tournament. The home game against North Carolina next Saturday will be a key opportunity for a second big win.

Xavier Routs Butler Xavier was in a tight battle for weeks with Florida for the title of the best team to miss the NCAA Tournament, but Florida seems to have that locked up now. Xavier has won 4 of 5 to pull themselves firmly into the NCAA Tournament and clear of the bubble. Xavier dominated inside here, blocking 9 shots and holding Butler to just 36.6% two-point shooting.

Xavier is now 9-6 against the RPI Top 100 (though with four RPI 100+ losses), and their RPI is up to 28th. If they can win two of their final three regular season games that should lock them into the NCAA Tournament. A home game against Villanova next Saturday is a big chance to improve their seed. Butler, meanwhile, has been struggling a big since losing Andrew Chrabascz, though they hope to have him back as early as the final week of the regular season.

Gonzaga Holds Off Saint Mary's This was a really fun late night game, for those of you who went to bed early. Saint Mary's is always tough to beat at McKeon Pavilion, and they gave Gonzaga their best shot. They led by 17 points at one stage, and still led by two points with under three minutes to go. But the Zags closed on a 12-0 run, with Przemek Karnowski in particular coming up big defensively. Brad Waldow had led St. Mary's all night with 19 points and 11 rebounds, but he was stopped twice in that final closing stretch.

I've been banging this point all season long, but this is a game that is a perfect demonstration of why Gonzaga's resume is underrated. Road games in a conference as good as the WCC need to be equated to home games in other conferences, to put them in perspective. In this case, if you use the Sagarin ratings, a road game at St. Mary's is approximately equal to a home game against Iowa State or Notre Dame. A home win over Iowa State would be seen by the media as proof that Gonzaga had justified their 1 seed by knocking off a premier opponent. Yet because St. Mary's probably won't finish in the RPI Top 50 (they'll likely be just outside, somewhere in the mid-50s), this game won't even be a "quality win". Gonzaga's schedule hasn't been as good as the schedule faced by Virginia or Wisconsin, of course. But what they've done by going 28-1 is really impressive.

What about Saint Mary's? Well this loss just about does them in for the NIT. It's not impossible for them to be in contention on Selection Sunday if they win out to the WCC title game and lose a close game to Gonzaga there, but realistically they're going to have to win the WCC auto-bid.

Dayton Falls To Duquesne Dayton hadn't really suffered a "bad" loss all season long. Their worst loss was to UConn. But this is truly a "bad" loss, coming to a 9-16 Duquesne team that will likely finish the season outside the RPI Top 200. Dayton was an ugly 9-for-18 on layups while Duquesne's Micah Mason nearly had a triple-double with 17 points, 8 rebounds and 9 assists.

Dayton is still 35th in RPI and 44th in Sagarin ELO_SCORE, and they're a strong 5-5 against the RPI Top 100, though without a real premier scalp. If the season ended now that would be enough for an at-large bid, but only barely. If they can go 3-1 down the stretch to get to 13-5 in Atlantic Ten play then that should be enough, but they do have two difficult road games ahead, at VCU and at La Salle, not to mention a home game against Rhode Island.

Old Dominion Routs Louisiana Tech Conference USA is very unlikely to earn an at-large bid, but the top of the league has been impossible to figure out. Louisiana Tech had pulled a game clear in the loss column and led the conference in efficiency margin, while Old Dominion had been falling apart with four losses in their last eight games, yet it was Old Dominion absolutely dominating here. Louisiana Tech was done in by awful shooting. They hit 3-for-26 behind the arc, finishing with a 34.2 eFG% and 0.85 PPP. That marks both their worst shooting day and worst scoring day of the season.

Louisiana Tech still remains, in my opinion, the Conference USA favorite. They're tied in the loss column with UTEP and they get UTEP on their home court on Thursday (they already won at UTEP by 13 points back on January 8th). But they could potentially be on pace to face Old Dominion in the Conference USA semifinals (ODU is likely to finish in fourth or fifth place in the standings). The Conference USA tournament is going to be wild and wide open. Any of five different teams will have a great shot.

W-3 BP68

It was a relatively slow Saturday for college basketball, mostly due to a scheduling quirk. We had just one game played between ranked teams (West Virginia vs Oklahoma State). It should just get better from here on out.

We continue to not get clarity on the 1 seeds. I would say that Wisconsin, Arizona and Virginia all control their own destiny for a 1 seed if they win out, but none of them are likely to win out. That's where Gonzaga has the edge in the projection here.

There was one change to the bubble since the last bracket. Texas A&M moved into the projected bracket while BYU dropped out. Both of those teams are on a rapidly thinning bubble, though. You can see at the bottom of the teams under consideration list just how few teams really are still in the bubble fight anymore.

Speaking of teams in consideration, seven teams were eliminated from at-large contention over the last three days: Akron, Bowling Green, Colorado, Mississippi State, Penn State, Western Kentucky and Yale. That leaves 41 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VIRGINIA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
3. Iowa State

4. Louisville
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Notre Dame
4. Baylor

5. Ohio State
5. Northern Iowa
5. SMU (AAC)
5. Georgetown

6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Arkansas
6. West Virginia
6. Butler

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Maryland
7. Xavier
7. Michigan State

8. Providence
8. Oklahoma State
8. Temple
8. Mississippi

9. Texas
9. Cincinnati
9. Indiana
9. Colorado State

10. Dayton
10. Georgia
10. St. John's
10. Davidson

11. Iowa
11. Illinois
11. Stanford
11. LSU
11. Miami-Florida

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Texas A&M
12. NC State
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Boise State, UCLA, BYU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Rhode Island, Old Dominion, Oregon, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Connecticut, Clemson, UMass, Minnesota, UTEP, Valparaiso, Alabama, Florida

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, Florida State, George Washington, La Salle, Richmond, Seton Hall, Michigan, Nebraska, Kansas State, TCU, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Evansville, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St

Friday, February 20, 2015

Morning News: Seth Davis, Purdue Wins In Assembly Hall, SMU Overcomes Temple, And Kyle Wiltjer Scores 45

At least his bad basketball analysis doesn't kill people.

Seth Davis Promotes His Mom's Hoax Cancer Cures If you didn't get a chance to read and spread around my Deadspin piece from yesterday, please do. As much fun as college basketball is, it's still just a game. CBS's top college basketball analyst is selling his mother's scam cancer remedies, and making money off of lying to desperate, sick people. The more we can embarrass and put pressure on him to stop, the better the world will be.

Purdue Wins In Assembly Hall I talked a few days ago about the fact that Indiana was 8-3 against Pomeroy Top 200 opponents when shooting over 40% on threes but just 3-5 when shooting under 40%. The Hoosiers shoot threes well in general, but they're very dependent on them to score offensively and their defense is a mess. Here? They hit just 31% of their threes and went down in a loss. Yogi Ferrell even had a great look at a game-winning three in the final seconds but missed. It was just that kind of day for them. Purdue shot poorly also, hitting an awful 2-for-18 on threes. But Purdue had a significant size advantage and was able to drop the ball down into the paint. AJ Hammons had 20 points on 8-for-9 shooting. A full 19 of Purdue's 24 made baskets were layups or dunks.
Jon Octeus!

Indiana drops to 8-6 in Big Ten play after this loss. If they can win three of four down the stretch to get to 11-7 they should be safely in the NCAA Tournament. If they end up 10-8 or 9-9, however, they're going to have to do work in the Big Ten tourney.All four of those remaining games are winnable, but all can easily be lost with a poor shooting day.

With this win, Purdue is now 10-4 in Big Ten play, which seems like a no-brainer NCAA Tournament bid. The media seems to agree:
I wouldn't be so sure, though. This isn't last season's Big Ten. A reasonable comp is the Georgia squad last season that went 12-6 in SEC play but missed the Tourney due to doing nothing in non-conference play. Purdue's non-conference performance was a debacle, which is why their RPI is still 59th. Conference play matters more than non-conference play, so even with those bad computer numbers you can make a reasonable case that Purdue would be in the Field of 68 if the season ended right now, but they have a long way to go. Even if they go 12-6 in Big Ten play they're going to need at least one win in the Big Ten tourney to get in. And considering their remaining schedule, it's very unlikely that they'll finish better than 12-6.

SMU Overcomes Temple Temple has been playing great basketball since adding Jesse Morgan, and they opened up a ten point lead in the second half here. But foul trouble started to hamper them, and Nic Moore stepped up when his team needed him most with two huge threes in short succession midway through the half. Temple, in contrast, hit just 1-for-10 behind the arc in the second half.
"Hey, get out of Bob Knight's way! Hey! Boys! Hey!"

SMU is tied in the loss column atop the AAC with Tulsa, though realistically they're the heavy favorite for the regular season title. Tulsa is fading, SMU has already beaten them in Tulsa, and SMU still has a game against Tulsa in Dallas. The question is, how big of a favorite is SMU in the AAC tournament? I still think it's wide open, with Temple and Cincinnati both very close, and I wouldn't want to bet against Ryan Boatright in a one-and-done tourney either.

Temple is just 1-5 against the RPI Top 50, but their RPI is 30th despite the slow start to their season. Their RPI is a little inflated, but that's balanced out by the fact that those non-conference losses will be discounted by the Selection Committee relative to what they've done the last couple of months. If they can go 3-1 down the stretch to finish 13-5 they should be in good shape on Selection Sunday.

Kyle Wiltjer Scores 45 Gonzaga winning this game wasn't a surprise, but Kyle Wiltjer scored a ridiculous 45 points on 15-for-22 shooting, including 7-for-10 behind the arc.  Wiltjer is quietly (considering he's on a Top 5 ranked team) having an All-American quality season. It's not just that he is scoring 17.4 points per game but that he does it efficiently, hitting 47% of his threes and having a 61.6 eFG% despite taking 33.2% of his team's shots while on the court.

The media is trying to drive a "The WCC is down" narrative as a way to discredit Gonzaga's case as a 1 seed, when the reality is that the WCC has never been rated higher. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate it the 7th best league in the nation, ahead of every league but the six major conferences. And while Gonzaga is part of that rating, and you can make a good case that going 18-0 in the Atlantic Ten would be harder than doing it in the WCC, the fact that the media dismisses Gonzaga's perfect WCC record like they're doing it in the Northeast Conference is ridiculous. Winning on the road at a team like Pepperdine or Portland is equivalent to winning at home against a bubble team like NC State or St. John's. The reason Gonzaga has been able to overcome every foe is that even when a team like Pacific hits 11-for-19 threes on their home court, Gonzaga can respond by getting 45 points out of Kyle Wiltjer. It's been awfully impressive.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Morning News: New Bracket, Duke Wins A Thriller, Iowa State Wins, Shorthanded Louisville Goes Down, And More

Pasch and Walton are the best.

New Bracket Projection Only one change was made to the Field of 68, with Albany sliding in, replacing Vermont as the America East favorite. Louisville slides a seed line due primarily to the Chris Jones suspension. For the other details, click on the link.


Duke Wins A Thriller Duke shot out of their minds in the first half (7-for-9 on threes with a 69.4 eFG%), and this game looked on its way to being a rout. But they cooled off in the second half, and North Carolina's 19 offensive rebounds allowed them to actually pull out to a ten point lead at one point. But Tyus Jones was huge late in regulation for Duke, scoring their final nine points to tie the game up. North Carolina had a chance to win in regulation, but Marcus Paige missed. North Carolina had two chances in overtime to tie the game, but their offense panicked on their second-to-last possession (Isaiah Hicks looked totally lost while unguarded with the ball in the paint). On their last possession, Nate Britt did a good job of intentionally missing a free throw to set up a tip-in, but it just didn't fall.

This is a moral victory for North Carolina. They were probably the better team, going to overtime despite Duke's vastly superior outside shooting (63% to 20%). Duke also got a slew of dicey referee calls in their favor late in regulation and overtime. But on Selection Sunday, a loss is a loss. They'll get a chance for revenge in Chapel Hill on March 7th. And Tar Heels fans should remember that most likely it'll be them getting all those dicey referee calls down the stretch when they're the home team.

Duke remains in control of their own destiny for a 1 seed, though they're probably going to need to win the ACC tournament. They're very unlikely to catch Virginia for the regular season title, and it's very rare for a team to earn a 1 seed without either a regular season or tournament conference title.

Iowa State Wins At Oklahoma State Oklahoma State had a four point lead with just over two minutes to go, but they failed to score a point on their final four possessions, including some ugly offense down the stretch. Oklahoma State always struggles on the glass, and Jameel McKay destroyed them here. McKay had 9 offensive rebounds (more than twice as many as the entire Oklahoma State team combined) on his way to 17 points and 14 rebounds. Iowa State needed somebody else to step up with Georges Niang hobbled with foul trouble (just 9 points in 25 minutes), and McKay was it.

Iowa State has had some luck in close games (6-2 in Big 12 games decided by six points or fewer), but they're in position now to maybe steal a share of the Big 12 regular season title. A road game at a hungry, desperate Texas squad on Saturday will be very important for both teams.

Oklahoma State is just 7-7 in Big 12 play, though they're 6-6 against the RPI Top 50 and their RPI is still in the Top 30. All they need to do is go 2-2 in their final four games (reasonable considering their schedule) and they'll be safely in the NCAA Tournament.

Shorthanded Louisville Goes Down Louisville announced before this game that Chris Jones is suspended indefinitely. Louisville just went through a two game stretch where only four players scored all of their points (Jones, Terry Rozier, Montrezl Harrell and Wayne Blackshear), so with one of those four guys down the other three were going to need to step up. Instead, Blackshear had the worst game of his career: he fouled out in 19 minutes with 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 2 turnovers. In contrast, Syracuse got a huge game out of their star, Rakeem Christmas (29 points on 9-for-10 shooting, with 8 rebounds and 4 blocks).
Michael Gbinije had a ridiculous block on a fast break.

If Chris Jones is out for an extended period of time, and Pitino certainly sounded postgame like he would, then Louisville could really fade down the stretch. They key will be getting back to full strength in time for the season-closing home games against Notre Dame and Virginia. Wins in those two games would have shot them up to likely a 3 seed in the bracket, but losses in both games could easily drop them into the 5-7 seed range in the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier Holds Off Cincinnati On the same night as Duke/North Carolina, perhaps the most underrated rivalry in college basketball featured Cincinnati nearly pulling off a big second half comeback. They pulled back from a 12 point second halftime deficit to actually grab a late lead. But with under a minute left it was Dee Davis who launched a three that seemed to scrape the ceiling before going in. Farad Cobb had two chances to hit clutch threes for Cincy in the final 30 seconds but neither fell.

Competitive non-conference games this late in the regular season are always a bit odd. Non-conference games never mean quite as much as conference games on Selection Sunday. That said, this loss shrinks Cincinnati's margin of error even further (this is now their third straight loss). Their remaining schedule is manageable, but they've really got to win at least four of their final five games. Anything less and they'll have to win some AAC tourney games to avoid the NIT.

Xavier has won three of four to move themselves firmly into the Field of 68. They're 9-7 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI up to 33rd. They've got a tough remaining schedule, but if they can win two of four that should be enough to safely keep them in the NCAA Tournament. Home games against Butler and Villanova the next two Saturdays are huge opportunities.

Davidson Tops George Washington This game wasn't on television, which is a shame because it was actually an important Bubble Battle. George Washington nearly fought off a six point deficit with a minute to go, but a game-winning attempt by Kethan Savage at the buzzer was off the mark. George Washington struggled with jump shooting all game, hitting just 23%, including 8-for-29 behind the arc.

George Washington's resume has fallen apart. They've lost five of six and are now just 3-8 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is only 85th. Unless they win their final five regular season games they're probably heading to the NIT.

Davidson is moving in the opposite direction, having won four straight to get to 9-4 in Atlantic Ten play, though some poor scheduling still has their RPI stuck at 53rd. They lack a big scalp (Dayton is their best win), so if the season ended now they'd likely be in the NIT. They probably need to win four of their final five regular season games to be in the Field of 68 when the A-10 tourney tips off.

W-3.5 BP68

It was a relatively quiet few days at the top of the bracket. The biggest movers were Oklahoma and Iowa State moving up, with Louisville dropping down a seed line after the indefinite suspension of Chris Jones.

It seems fairly easy to say that there are nine teams fighting for the eight slots as 1 and 2 seeds. It's seemed that way for a while now, and I still think that's probably the case. But if Oklahoma can finish strong and take out Kansas in their season finale, they will have a real chance to earn a 2 seed by making the Big 12 title game.

The at-large teams near the bottom of the bracket mostly had bad performances over the past few days, meaning that the bubble has gotten a little bit weaker. In the end, I didn't change which at-large teams I'm projecting to make the Tourney, though Texas A&M is now the first team out of the bracket after taking care of business against LSU.

There was one change to the Field of 68, which was Albany becoming the new projected favorite in the America East, with Vermont dropping out.

Five teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Auburn, DePaul, UNLV, St. Bonaventure and Wake Forest. That leaves 48 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VIRGINIA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
3. Iowa State

4. Louisville
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Notre Dame
4. Baylor

5. Ohio State
5. Butler
5. Northern Iowa
5. SMU (AAC)

6. Georgetown
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Texas
6. Arkansas

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Oklahoma State

8. Michigan State
8. Xavier
8. Providence
8. Dayton

9. Cincinnati
9. Iowa
9. Indiana
9. Temple

10. Colorado State
10. St. John's
10. Davidson
10. Mississippi

11. Illinois
11. Georgia
11. Stanford
11. Miami-Florida
11. NC State

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. BYU
12. LSU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Boise State, UCLA, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Purdue, Oregon, Florida, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, George Washington, UMass, Seton Hall, Kansas State, Old Dominion, UTEP, Valparaiso, Oregon State, Alabama, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, Florida State, La Salle, Richmond, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, TCU, Western Kentucky, Yale, Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Evansville, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Washington, Washington State, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Morning News: Oklahoma Steals A Win, Georgia Loses Again, Texas A&M Shuts Down LSU, And More

Huh.
Oklahoma Steals A Win Texas looked to be in control of this game. They led almost the entire second half and still led by 6 points with 3:20 to go. But they wouldn't hit another shot the rest of the game until a meaningless shot at the buzzer. Oklahoma went on a quick 10-0 run, during which Texas was struggling to even inbound the ball.

Poor Myles Turner had another really good game for naught, pouring in 17 points on 5-for-9 shooting with 10 rebounds and 6 blocks in only 24 minutes. Turner has quietly had a really good season. If Turner was playing for a team like Duke or Kentucky he'd be getting hype for best freshman in the nation, if not National Player of the Year. I'm not saying he will deserve the hype, but neither does Willie Cauley-Stein, and Cauley-Stein gets plenty. Turner will be a really good NBA player some day. But for now, his Texas Longhorns have to take care of Iowa State at home on Saturday or an at-large bid suddenly becomes a real concern.

Oklahoma kept alive their slim hopes for a share of the Big 12 regular season title with this win. Realistically they're going to have to win out to do it, but even if they don't they're still likely going to end up somewhere between a 3 and 5 seed on Selection Sunday.

Georgia Loses Again Georgia was firmly in the Field of 68 a week ago, but they've now lost consecutive home games to Auburn and South Carolina. In their defense, the South Carolina loss isn't nearly as bad as it seems. South Carolina has had really bad luck in close games (3-7 in games decided by six points or less before this one). But the Selection Committee won't understand that - they'll see that this was a home loss to a team barely inside the RPI Top 100.

Georgia was basically sleepwalking to start this game. They actually trailed 34-13 at one point. They fought back to within two points a couple of times, but never got any closer. And now they're just 7-6 in SEC play with an RPI that has slipped from around 20th to 42nd in a week. They lack a win over a team in the RPI Top 25, so they're not going to get the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday if they're right on the bubble.

If Georgia beats Kentucky, which they absolutely can, then we can throw all the numbers from the previous paragraph out the window. But if they don't, they're going to be in trouble if they don't get to 10-8 in SEC play, which means at most one more non-Kentucky regular season loss. They've got difficult road games at Alabama and Ole Miss up next, so it's going to be an uphill battle.

Texas A&M Shuts Down LSU In The Second Half This was a crucial home game for Texas A&M to take care of business in to make the NCAA Tournament, and they got off to a slow start. But they shut LSU down in the second half, holding them to just 9-for-27 shooting from the field and 0.76 PPP. The 0.94 PPP that LSU scored for the game made it their third worst offensive performance in SEC play this season.

LSU is 4-3 against the RPI Top 50, but that's deceptive as three of those four wins came over teams that could easily slip out of the Top 50 by Selection Sunday. They also have three RPI 100+ losses and their RPI has slid out to 54th. If the season ended now they'd likely be in the NIT. If they go 3-2 down the stretch to finish 10-8, they'll still need at least one win in the SEC tournament to earn an at-large bid. A home game against Florida on Saturday will be a crucial game to take care of business in.

Texas A&M is now 9-4 in SEC play and 35th in RPI, though they're an ugly 0-5 against the RPI Top 50. History says that RPI Top 40 teams from power conferences rarely miss out on an at-large bid (it only happens once every few years), but if a Power Five team 38th or 39th in RPI misses out on the Tourney this year then Texas A&M has the perfect resume for it. Also, they have a really tough remaining schedule that includes road games at South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida. So at this point, it's still pretty hard to project Texas A&M as a Tourney team.

Georgetown Rolls St. John's This game was never particularly competitive. Georgetown had a 10 point halftime lead that they pushed to 18 early in the second half, which St. John's never got back to single figures. It was an extremely balanced effort from Georgetown, with five different players tying for the team lead with 12 points. D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera nearly pulled off a triple double, with 12 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists.

This loss snaps a three-game winning streak for St. John's. They're 6-7 in Big East play with a 7-7 record against the RPI Top 100 and an RPI sitting at 45th. Even without a big scalp, St. John's would likely be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, and they should be in pretty good shape if they go 3-2 down the stretch to finish 9-9. They'll be in trouble if they fall to 8-10, though.

Georgetown would have to lose out to have any chance of missing the NCAA Tournament... and even if they lost every game between now and Selection Sunday they'd still probably get in. They're just playing for seed.

Chris Jones Suspended Chris Jones hasn't had the best season, to say the least. He is a talented player and he's a strong defender, but he leads the nation in terrible shot selection. It seems like every time Louisville has a bad game, Chris Jones shows up in the box score with a 3-for-13 shooting day. But the Cardinals lack scoring depth, so if Jones can get his act together before March then this team does still have Final Four potential.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Morning News: Juwan Staten Knocks Off Kansas, Sterling Gibbs Throws A Punch, And Roosevelt Jones Helps Butler Escape

"Country roads, take me home..."
Juwan Staten Knocks Off Kansas Juwan Staten struggled with cramps during this game, and West Virginia needed every minute out of him that they could get. He finished with 20 points on 9-for-18 shooting, including the fantastic game winner. And yes, he did travel (you can check out the video below), but no ref is going to call a travel in that situation. In defeat, Perry Ellis was fantastic for Kansas. He had 15 of their 31 second half points by himself, and was basically unstoppable in the post.
This was almost a must-win for West Virginia. They came into this game 6-0 against Texas Tech, Kansas State and TCU but 1-5 against the rest of the Big 12. They could earn an at-large bid at 8-10 in Big 12 play, but unless they want to sweat out Selection Sunday they need to get to 9-9. A loss here would have made 9-9 fairly difficult. Now? They should get there. Their remaining schedule is nasty, but they should win at least one of those remaining games.

Kansas remains a solid favorite for the Big 12 regular season title. They're also still in play for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday, though they're going to need some help. If they get to 14-4 in Big 12 play and win the Big 12 tournament, they'll have a fairly strong case for a 1 seed.

Sterling Gibbs Throws A Punch A suspension will be coming for Sterling Gibbs after he punched Ryan Arcidiacono in the head while fighting for a loose ball yesterday. In case you're wondering whether or not it might have been intentional, the below angle confirms that it certainly was:
I'm sure Gibbs regrets what he does, and he doesn't have a history of bad behavior. There are some #HotTaeks going around calling for him to be suspended for the season, but I doubt that will come to pass. A two or three game suspension seems reasonable. The reality is that Seton Hall's season has already fallen apart, and they're not likely to end up on the Tournament bubble on Selection Sunday anyway. So whatever the suspension is, it probably won't be what costs them a Tourney bid.

Roosevelt Jones Helps Butler Escape Butler was coming off a gut punch loss to Villanova and the news that Andrew Chrabascz would miss two to four weeks, and they got a strong effort from a Creighton team that isn't as bad as their Big East record would suggest. But Roosevelt Jones led all players with 6 assists and also scored 18 points, including the game winner with 1.9 seconds to go.

Butler is not realistically winning the Big East or falling to the Tournament bubble. They're basically just playing for Tourney seed from here until Selection Sunday. Now 9-4 in Big East play and 7-7 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE inside the Top 20, they'd likely be a 5 seed if the season ended now.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Morning News: Indiana Routs Minnesota, Wisconsin Rolls Illinois, Northwestern/Iowa, Stanford/Colorado, And Andrew Chrabascz

Doug Collins couldn't bear to watch the end of regulation

Indiana Routs Minnesota Indiana is a team that lives and dies by the three-pointer, and they lived by it here, hitting a ridiculous 18 of them at a 56% clip. The 18 made threes are the most by any major conference team in a conference game this season, and the most by Indiana in any game in at least 17 seasons. Indiana is now hitting 47.1% of their three-pointers this season, which is good for fourth best in the nation. This season, if we look just at Pomeroy Top 200 opponents (to throw out the cupcakes), Indiana is 8-3 when shooting over 40% behind the arc but just 3-5 when shooting under 40%.

Indiana will likely make the NCAA Tournament if they win 3 of their final 5 regular season games. They can win just 2 out of 5 and be okay, but they'll want to avoid a one-and-done in the Big Ten tourney. They have a very manageable schedule to do that. But like I said in the previous paragraph, if those threes aren't falling they can lose to anybody. So they need to stay hot.

This is a big missed opportunity for Minnesota. They'll be in decent at-large shape if they can get to 9-9 in Big Ten play, but this loss drops them to 5-8. Considering the fact that they still have a home-and-home with Wisconsin and a road game at Michigan State to go, it's awfully unlikely that they're going to get to 9-9.

Wisconsin Rolls Illinois This was a professional romp by Wisconsin. Illinois never posted a serious challenge here. Frank Kaminsky dominated in the paint with 23 points on 11-for-16 shooting. Wisconsin as a team had a massive 36-to-14 advantage in paint points. Illinois also allowed Wisconsin to rebound 52% of their misses, which was why the Badgers ended up with 1.35 PPP.

Wisconsin controls their own destiny for a 1 seed. If they win out they'll get one. But aside from the Big Ten tournament, they also have tough road gamest at Maryland and Ohio State still to come. So they'll get some serious tests.

Illinois had won four straight games coming in here. They're 7-6 in Big Ten play after this loss, with a 6-8 record against the RPI Top 100. That Baylor win is probably their best. Their RPI is 45th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 46th. If the season ended now that would be probably be a Tournament resume, though with little room to spare. A 3-2 finish in their final five games would put them in pretty good shape.

Northwestern Upsets Iowa Iowa fans aren't sure what hit them this week. They went from thinking about second place in the Big Ten to worrying about the NIT after two straight upset losses. Jarrod Uthoff played well for Iowa, pouring in 25 points on 8-for-16 shooting, including the three-pointer that sent the game to overtime. But his teammates let him down, including a horrible 1-for-12 shooting day from star Aaron White.

Iowa is 6-6 in Big Ten play with wins over North Carolina, Ohio State (twice) and Maryland, along with this bad loss to Northwestern. Those four RPI Top 50 wins will help them on Selection Sunday, but their RPI has slipped out to 56th due to some poor scheduling by Fran McCaffery (their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is a more reasonable 41st). Iowa will be pretty safely in the NCAA Tournament if they get to 11-7 in Big Ten play. But if they finish 10-8, which is looking more likely than 11-7 right now, then they'll need to win at least one game in the Big Ten tournament to avoid the NIT.

Stanford Falls To Colorado Stanford is fading in a serious way. They've lost four of five, including bad losses to Washington State and now Colorado. Stanford fans will feel hard done by not getting a blocking foul on Chasson Randle's drive with around 20 seconds to go, but the reality is that most refs will give that kind of 50/50 call to the home team. And that's what happens when you leave a game to the final 30 seconds - you put your fate in the hands of the refs.

Stanford is still 50th in RPI and 7-6 in Pac-12 play, but an ugly 11-9 against the RPI Top 200 with their only quality win coming over Texas back before Christmas. They'll be in decent shape if they can get to 10-8 in Pac-12 play and win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament, but they finish the regular season with the tough Arizona road trip, and the last thing they want to do is to head into Tucson needing a win in their season finale.

Andrew Chrabascz Out 2-4 Weeks Chrabascz actually finished Butler's game against Villanova with the broken hand, but he is going to miss two to four weeks now. That will potentially leave him out for the Big East tournament, and if the injury goes long could even cost him an NCAA Tournament game or two. Chrabascz has established himself as perhaps Butler's best interior scoring option, so this is a serious injury.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Morning News: New Bracket, Darrun Hilliard Leads Villanova, NC State Knocks Off Louisville, Pitt Routs North Carolina, And Much More

Norman Powell Being Ridiculous

New Bracket Projection There are three changes to the makeup of the Field of 68 this week. NC State, LSU and UC-Davis move in, while Tulsa, Florida and UC-Irvine drop out. For all the details, as well as some thoughts about nearing the end of the regular season, click the link.

Darrun Hilliard Leads Villanova To Big East Control Villanova knew that a win at Hinkle Fieldhouse would basically lock up the Big East regular season title. And this was a really fun game that was tight the entire way. Alex Barlow had maybe the best game of his career, hitting 4-for-7 behind the arc and scoring 19 points, but he committed a silly foul behind the three-point line that allowed Darrun Hilliard to knock in three free throws to put Villanova back up by two. After Roosevelt Jones tied up the game, Butler had a defensive breakdown that left open the only guy they couldn't leave open, and Darrun Hilliard hit the three-pointer for the win. With just 1.8 seconds left, Butler actually set up a great play that got an open three for Kelan Martin, but he missed. Hilliard finished the game a ridiculous 8-for-13 on three-pointers. Here is Hilliard's shot:
Villanova basically has the Big East regular season title wrapped up. The question is, will they earn a 1 seed if they win the Big East tournament. And they might, but they're going to need some help. Also, for the second straight year we are asking ourselves whether Villanova is one of the most underrated or one of the most overrated teams in the nation. And here's what I mean by that. On one hand, the computers rate them as deserving of their high ranking and a legitimate title contender, so is it possible that everybody who is so sure they won't even make the Sweet 16 just wildly underrating them? Or is the Big East not as good as we think it is and Villanova is running up the score on bad teams, and Villanova is going to be a joke of a 2 seed that everybody wants in their region on Selection Sunday?

Butler has been playing really good basketball the last few weeks. There's no shame in a three point loss to Villanova, I don't think. They are still, in my opinion, a true dark horse Final Four contender with the right draw. Their peripherals set them up really well for a tourney run.

NC State Knocks Off Louisville Everything went wrong for Louisville here. Offensively, they couldn't get shots for their stars. Terry Rozier fouled out after only 24 minutes, while he and Montrezl Harrell combined for just 14 points on 4-for-16 shooting. They shot just 2-for-11 on layups, and hit just 29.5% of their two-pointers. In contrast, NC State was getting to the rim at will against a Louisville defense that was perhaps over-aggressive and over-pursuing. NC State had a 32-to-16 advantage in paint points. The 1.12 PPP that NC State scored were the most that any team had scored against Louisville this season.

After five losses in their last six games, NC State desperately needed something to work their way back onto the bubble. To earn an at-large bid, they're realistically going to have to get to at least 9-9 in ACC play plus at least one win in the ACC tournament. They're 6-7 with road games at North Carolina and Clemson still to come.

This loss probably ends whatever chances Louisville had for a share of the ACC regular season title. But they're still 15th in RPI and in the mix for something between a 3 and 5 seed on Selection Sunday. They do have some tricky road games remaining, including one at Syracuse on Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Routs North Carolina Despite all the talks about Pittsburgh's "blue collar defense", Pitt has always been a far better offensive than defensive team. They simply play a slow tempo. This is Jamie Dixon's 12th season at Pitt, and they have never once finished lower than 45th in Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency. What holds them back is defense, as it has this year where they are arguably the worst defense in the ACC.

That said, while Pitt's offense is often good, this game was ridiculous. They hit 8-for-15 behind the arc and had a 71.9 eFG% with only 5 turnovers. I can look up efficiency stats back to the 1996-97 season (the last season Dean Smith coached), and in that time no team facing North Carolina scored as many as the 1.44 PPP that Pitt scored here. The previous best offensive performance against UNC since Smith reitred was 1.38 PPP by NC State on February 21st, 1998. Pretty amazing thing to come in the first game UNC had played since Smith's death.

North Carolina has lost three of four with a road game at Duke up next. But this has been a nasty stretch of schedule. This was a bad game, but there's no shame in a close loss to Virginia or on the road at Louisville. There's no reason to overreact to a single bad game.

With wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame and an RPI up to 52, Pitt is beginning to make an at-large case. That said, take those two games out and they're just 1-7 against the RPI Top 100, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is just 60th. If they can go 4-2 down the stretch to get to 10-8 in ACC play they'll be in decent shape. At 3-3, though, they'll have a bunch of work to do in the ACC tourney.

Johnathan Stark's Buzzer Beater Stuns Cincinnati Cincinnati's offense was awful in the first half here. They tallied just 0.45 PPP. Yet despite being unable to hit outside shots all game (0-for-11 behind the arc), they worked the ball inside and hit 76% of their two-pointers in the second half. And they seemed to have escaped after Gary Clark hit a shot to put Cincinnati up by 2 with 4.7 seconds to go. But without calling timeout Tulane rushed the ball down court and Johnathan Stark hit the buzzer beater for the win. Hilariously, the announcers crushed Cincinnati for "starting their offense too quickly", and that "there was no luck" in Tulane's win, as if you expect a 31% three-point shooter to nail a 30 foot contested off-balance shot at the buzzer. But in a one possession game, crazy stuff can happen. You can watch the shot here:
Cincinnati has dropped to 8-5 in AAC play, though they have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. A home game against Xavier on Wednesday will be a good chance for a late-season non-conference victory as well. Tulane, meanwhile, is playing significantly better basketball this season than they did last season. They have a real chance to get to .500 in AAC play this season.

[/Lame Headline Title With A Terrible Valentine's Day Pun] What stood out to me on the final Michigan State possession which led to the Denzel Valentine three-pointer was why Tom Izzo chose not to call a timeout. We see so often in college basketball with so many timeouts that coaches feel compelled to call timeouts, even if often times their opponent gets more out of the timeout than they do. Late game possessions are just as likely to be ugly with a timeout as without one. But here, Michigan State got the ball back with just about the full 35 seconds to go. Izzo had his team dribble in place at midcourt while he shouted out the play to everybody and told everybody where to go. Thad Matta, on the other side of the court and far from the play, couldn't really hope to counter. The Spartans got a great look for Denzel Valentine and he hit it. Here's the shot:
There was some bubble talk about Michigan State, but it seemed a bit silly to me. As long as teams like Tulsa, Seton Hall and George Washington are on the bubble, Michigan State is fine. But this win should put those bubble concerns to bed in the media as well. If they win the games they're supposed to win the rest of the way they'll be safe.

Ohio State is now 8-5 in Big Ten play with a tricky road game at Michigan up next. But after that their finishing schedule is very manageable, including a great opportunity to build their resume on Senior Night against Wisconsin.

Kansas State Takes Down Oklahoma Oklahoma struggled to shoot the ball here, hitting just 3-for-17 behind the arc. Though this is the concern with Oklahoma, that as dominant as their defense is (and it is probably the best in the Big 12), their offense can go cold for long stretches, and that makes them vulnerable to an upset in the NCAA Tournament. Still, it wasn't just cold offense here. Sooners fans surely didn't enjoy the reffing, including quite a few dicey foul calls as well as a controversial three-pointer for Kansas State that clearly came after the shot clock went off.

In addition, the end of this game was a demonstration of what I often talk about: late game execution doesn't really correlate with late game winning percentages. Kansas State had the ball with 1:01 to go in a tie game, which meant that they should go for a quick 2-for-1. Instead they intentionally burned clock, ruining the 2-for-1, but got their own offensive rebound off the miss. And then when their next possession went nowhere, Marcus Foster was forced to launch a deep three-pointer... which he hit. That's how it goes sometimes. Here's the Foster shot, if you missed it:
Oklahoma's slim hopes of stealing a share of the Big 12 regular season title got slimmer here, though their schedule still sets up for a good finish to their season an NCAA Tournament seed somewhere in the 3-6 range.

TCU Upsets Oklahoma State This isn't as big of an upset as you think it is, particularly since the final score is very deceptive. This game was very tight the whole way, with the two teams trading small leads. TCU finished the game on a 14-2 run to give the appearance of a much more dominant victory. This was only a 2.5 point spread in Vegas, and Oklahoma State shot an ugly 3-for-16 behind the arc.

While TCU being ranked in the Top 25 for running through a bunch of cupcakes was a joke, and we all knew that they would slam face-first into the brick wall reality of the Big 12 conference, the reality is that this TCU team is better than their 1-10 Big 12 record would indicate. Four of those ten losses were by five points or fewer or in overtime. They were due to finally win one of these games.

Kansas Squeezes Baylor In The Second Half Baylor has been playing great basketball, and they looked really strong in the first half against Kansas here. But the Jayhawks turned up the defense in the second half, holding Baylor to just 5-for-16 shooting on two-pointers. The offensive star for Kansas was Kelly Oubre, who hit 4-for-6 behind the arc and tied for a game-high with 18 points scored.

As tough as every game is in the Big 12, Kansas hasn't quite wrapped up the Big 12 regular season title, but they're getting close. If any team steals it from the Jayhawks, Oklahoma seems most likely, though they'd have to beat Kansas head-to-head and also get a bunch of help. Baylor has lost two straight to drop to 6-6 in Big 12 play, but that's just a symptom of how nasty and deep the Big 12 is. They're still 16th in RPI and in contention for a 4 or 5 seed on Selection Sunday.

VCU Crushes George Washington The media was starting to panic a little bit about VCU.  The Rams had lost two straight and three of four. But while Briante Weber is done for the season, their best player (Treveon Graham) did manage to come back for this one. He wasn't 100% healthy, and he only scored 10 points, but his mere presence opened up things for the offense. The 1.22 PPP that VCU scored here were actually their most in Atlantic Ten play this season.

It was a frustrating home loss and missed opportunity for a George Washington team on the bubble that really needed a quality win. They're now just 2-7 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that has slid from 49th to 78th in less than a week. They'd be in the NIT if the season ended now, and probably need to win at least five of their final six regular season games to get back into the Field of 68.

VCU is still in a four-way tie atop the Atlantic Ten, but they control their own destiny for the 1 seed in the Atlantic Ten tournament. They have key home games against two of the three teams they're tied with over the next two Saturdays: UMass on on February 21st and Dayton on February 28th.

Iowa State Pulls Away From West Virginia Iowa State's defense has struggled this season. They have the second worst defensive efficiency in Big 12 play, ahead of only Texas Tech. But West Virginia's offense is bad when they're not getting easy baskets off of turnovers or offensive rebounds. West Virginia has rebounded 39.8% of their misses this season, but only collected 25% of them here. And it was Iowa State that had the 23-to-8 advantage in fast break points. West Virginia finished with just 0.82 PPP,

Iowa State has a small chance for a share of the Big 12 title, but realistically are just playing for an NCAA Tournament seed likely to end up somewhere in the 3-5 range. West Virginia, on the other hand, is living up to its reputation of "the worst good team in America". They got off to a 6-2 start in Big 12 play where five of those wins came over Texas Tech, TCU or Kansas State. They still have only 1 win against the rest of the conference (more than a month ago, against Oklahoma). In the last two weeks they've gotten smoked by Oklahoma, Baylor and Iowa State. If they fall at home to Kansas on Monday, the risk of West Virginia falling to the bubble will become very real.

Arkansas Escapes Ole Miss Mississippi had a great opportunity at home here to collect a quality victory and to really firm up their place in the Field of 68, but they struggled badly offensively. Despite dominating the glass (a 48.8 OR%) they finished just 10-for-27 on layups, getting 7 of their shots blocked. And they hit just 5-for-20 behind the arc. They still had a chance on the final possession, but Manuale Watkins hit a shot for Arkansas and Jarvis Summers missed a pretty good look on the other end.

Mississippi's six game winning streak was snapped here. They're a strong 8-4 in SEC play and their RPI is still 38th, but they have no big scalps (either Arkansas or Cincinnati is their best win) and they have bad losses to Charleston Southern, Western Kentucky and TCU. If the season ended now they'd be right on the boundary between the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. If they can go 4-2 or better down the stretch to get to 12-6 in SEC play they'll be in pretty good shape on Selection Sunday.

Arkansas is now up into the Top 20 in RPI. They're at the point that it would take a pretty serious collapse down the stretch to miss the NCAA Tournament. Just a 3-3 finish down the stretch will lock them in for sure, and even a 2-4 finish should be enough.

Auburn Upsets Georgia Georgia looked like they had finally comfortably moved into the Field of 68 with the third strongest resume in the SEC, after Kentucky and Arkansas. They had won 7 of 9, with 1 of those 2 losses coming on the road at Kentucky. But Georgia suffered an ugly loss here. The Bulldogs couldn't hit a jump shot, hitting just 28.6% for the day, including 21% behind the arc.

Georgia is now just 7-5 in SEC play and 5-5 against the RPI Top 100 with three RPI 100+ losses. Their RPI is still 33rd, though their RPI is inflated by some smart scheduling. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 37th. They'd still be in the Field of 68 if the season ended now, but they need to win 4 of their final 6 games to stay in there. If they end up 10-8 or worse in SEC play they'll be in trouble.

St. John's Holds Off Xavier This was actually a very fun game, even if it was overshadowed by other games on Saturday. Down the stretch it was Sir'Dominic Pointer who totally took over and made big plays on both ends of the court. He led all players with 24 points on 9-for-10 shooting, with 4 steals and 2 blocks as well. You can make a compelling case that Pointer deserves a spot on First Team All-Big East at the end of the season.

St. John's has won three straight games to get back to 6-6 in Big East play. They're 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 and their RPI is back up to 42nd. If they can go 3-3 in their final six games they'll be in pretty good shape on Selection Sunday. Xavier also will be in pretty good shape if they can get to 9-9, but that will require a 2-2 finish in their final four Big East games. They also have an interesting non-conference battle at Cincinnati on Wednesday.