Thursday, December 31, 2015

Morning News: Seton Hall Routs Marquette, Dererk Pardon, And Pittsburgh Over Syracuse

What was Dererk Pardon doing on the bench all season?
Seton Hall Routs Marquette The margin of victory (20 points) was inflated by some fluky shooting (Seton Hall was 5-for-10 on three-pointers while Marquette was 1-for-11), but there was no question that Seton Hall was the dominant team. Seton Hall's starting lineup is dangerous at all five positions, and all five ended up in double-figures, led by Khadeen Carrington (17 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals) and Isaiah Whitehead (16 points and 7 assists). They were also able defensively to keep Henry Ellenson away from the hoop. Ellenson finished with 13 points and 14 rebounds, but it came on ugly 3-for-14 shooting).

Seton Hall has had a remarkable turnaround after some disastrous off-court problems last season that put the season into a tailspin and caused two key players (Sterling Gibbs and Jaren Sina) to transfer out. Amazingly, they are looking like a potential at-large team this season, and are doing it with five sophomores in the starting lineup and with seven of their eight top minute earners being freshmen or sophomores. With nobody likely leaving to go pro at the end of the season, Seton Hall has the potential to be really good next season, and perhaps even better in 2017-18.

The computers were not high on Marquette, due to a 4-1 record in games decided by three points or fewer or in OT and due to a record inflated by a terrible non-conference strength of schedule. This loss suggests that the computers were probably right. The Golden Eagles have decent wins over Wisconsin, LSU, and Arizona State, but they're going to have to play significantly better to get to .500 in Big East play.

Dererk Pardon! Is it too late for Dererk Pardon to be a contender for the National Player of the Year award? In all seriousness, what was he doing redshirting? Chris Collins chose to pull the redshirt from the freshman after star big man Alex Olah was lost indefinitely with an injury, and Pardon has been absolutely terrific since getting to play. He had just 6 points and 4 rebounds in his career debut on Sunday, but he had a monster 28 points (on 11-for-14 shooting) and 12 rebounds here. And he led Northwestern to what was actually an upset in Las Vegas.

The computers like Northwestern, who are 13-1 with no bad losses, and are now up to 43rd in Pomeroy and 41st in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. The problem is that their non-conference schedule was atrocious, and was transparently put together to juice their W-L record to help them qualify for the NIT. The problem is that Chris Collins suddenly has a team that might be good enough to earn an at-large bid, and they entered Big Ten play with zero wins over likely RPI Top 100 opponents. If they finish 10-8 or 11-7 in Big Ten, that non-conference schedule will likely keep them from a Top 50 RPI. So they are going to have to collect some big scalps in non-conference play. Their first chance will come on Saturday against Maryland.

Pittsburgh Tops Syracuse In a battle between two potential bubble teams, Syracuse struggled with what they've struggled with all season - size. Pitt shot an ugly 6-for-23 on three-pointers, but it didn't matter because they dominated the glass. They had a 52.8 OR%, compared to a 24.2 OR% for Syracuse. In all, teams are rebounding 37.1% of their misses against Syracuse, which makes Syracuse defensive rebounding 336th in the nation. One of the biggest reasons has been the ineffectiveness of DaJuan Coleman, who fouled out with 2 points and 1 rebound in 17 minutes here.

This is Pitt's best win of the season and their only loss came to Villanova, and their soft non-conference schedule will be mostly wiped away by their tough ACC schedule. If they go 10-8 or better in ACC play they should end up in the NCAA Tournament.

Syracuse has more excitement on their resume so far, with nice wins over UConn and Texas A&M, but with a bad loss to St. John's. The ACC scheduling gods were unfair to Syracuse, forcing them to play on the road in their only games against Virginia, Duke, and Louisville (along with a home-and-home with North Carolina). If they get to 10-8 in ACC play they should be in the NCAA Tournament, but that will be a more difficult task for them than it will be for Pitt.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Morning News: #1 Goes Down, UConn Wins In Austin, Temple Tops Cincinnati, And More

Mike Gesell was the star for Iowa last night
The Morning News makes a triumphant return after a few quiet days with little hoops. Let's get right into it:

#1 Goes Down This would have been a difficult game for Michigan State even at full strength. Pomeroy had Michigan State as just a one point favorite. With the loss of Denzel Valentine, Las Vegas moved Iowa to a 2.5 point favorite. Michigan State could have won this game if they had played well, but instead they hit just 13% of their jump shots in the first half. That jump shooting was bound to regress in the second half, and it did, but that was too big of a hole to get out of. Mike Gesell was the star for Iowa, pouring in 25 points on 7-for-10 shooting.

I'd still lean toward saying that Michigan State is the best team in the country when at full strength, but at this point Purdue is probably the favorite for the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan State is already a game down, still has to play more games without Denzel Valentine, and will play their only game against Purdue this season on the road at West Lafayette.

Keep Iowa in mind as a dark horse contender in the Big Ten due to the fact that they still get to play Michigan State again before the Spartans play their first game against either Purdue or Maryland. If Denzel Valentine isn't back (or back at 100%) for that game, that will give Iowa a significant advantage on their competition. If the Hawkeyes can pull the upset at Purdue on Saturday, they will vault right into the thick of the conference title race.

Connecticut Wins In Austin Both Connecticut and Texas were down a big man here. UConn is without Amida Brimah, while Texas found out this week that Cameron Ridley broke his foot. Ridley is the more significant loss, as he is the best Texas front court player both on offense and defense. With him gone, UConn was able to have their way in the paint, finishing with a 40-to-28 advantage in paint points. UConn put four starters in double-figures, the most impressive of whom was probably Daniel Hamilton (13 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals). Below is one of many examples of the UConn backcourt having their way in the paint:
CONN vs. TEX - ESPN Video
More than any team in the AAC, UConn is looking in good shape for an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. The AAC scheduling gods even did UConn a favor by back-loading their conference schedule, which will help with the Amida Brimah injury. Texas, in contrast, looks like a bubble team at the moment, with a bad loss to Washington to go with that nice win over North Carolina. I thought they were likely going to be an NCAA Tournament team when healthy, but the Ridley injury could dash those hopes.

Temple Outshoots Cincinnati As I have said before, "small sample sizes gonna small sample size". Temple came into this game one of the worst shooting teams in the nation. Their national rank was 275th or worse in 2P%, 3P%, and eFG%. But here? They hit 10-for-22 on threes, a season-high 3P%. If Temple had shot their season average on jumpers, Cincinnati would have won without too much trouble.

Cincinnati is a good team, but they didn't collect big scalps in non-conference play (George Washington and VCU were the top wins), and the AAC got zero respect from the Selection Committee last season, so Cincinnati doesn't want to cut it close on Selection Sunday. If they got 13-5 or better in conference play they'll be an at-large team, but at 12-6 or worse they might have to sweat out the final week of the season.

Bacon Beater Last season, Florida State took down Florida at the buzzer. This time, Dwayne Bacon's shot maybe wasn't technically a buzzer beater, but it was close enough. A smooth move that delivered the victory:
Bacon was the go-to star all night for Florida State, finishing with a team-high 22 points, including 5-for-8 behind the arc. It spoiled a career-high 32 points by KeVaughn Allen. And this delivers a likely RPI Top 50 win for Florida State, which was something they did not already have (though VCU could end up there, as well). As good as the ACC is, a 10-8 conference record will put Florida State in the NCAA Tournament. At 9-9 or 8-10 they'll be on the bubble.

Florida isn't yet #TeamBadLuck again, but they are 0-4 against the Pomeroy Top 50 despite being a borderline Top 25 team in the computers. At some point those wins will come, but unless they beat West Virginia they will complete non-conference play without a single quality win. They might need to get to 12-6 in SEC play to earn an at-large bid.

LSU Falls Again The margin for error for LSU has gotten awfully small, and this was just a bad, ugly loss at home to a not-as-good-as-the-media-thinks Wake Forest team. Part of it was ugly outside shooting (2-for-14 on threes), but LSU's offense was disjointed off the dribble, finishing with 17 turnovers to just 9 assists. LSU's defense is bad, and if their offense isn't clicking, they aren't going to beat anybody. They are now 0-4 this season when scoring under 1 PPP.

LSU's odds of a Top 50 RPI at this point, after all of these ugly losses and a poorly constructed schedule, are almost nil. They'd have to go at least 13-5 in SEC play to have any real shot. That said, if they go 12-6 in SEC play and pick up a couple of nice scalps, they would be tough to keep out of the NCAA Tournament. Their most important game of the regular season could be that game on Tuesday, at home against Kentucky. That's their chance to start building an at-large resume.

Wake Forest is starting to get some hype due to a strong non-conference resume (wins over Indiana, UCLA, and LSU, with their only iffy loss coming to Richmond), but there's a reason why the computers are down on them (~100th in both Pomeroy and Sagarin). That reason? They are 7-0 in games decided by six points or fewer, and just 2-3 in games decided by seven points or more. They have been lucky in close games, and at some point that luck is going to regress. Their odds of earning an at-large bid are still pretty low. Pomeroy currently projects a 6-12 ACC record for Wake Forest, when they'll realistically need to get to at least 9-9.

Purdue Wins Ugly Over Wisconsin The Badgers need to build a Tournament resume in Big Ten play after a disappointing non-conference performance, but they let a chance slip away here with another mediocre shooting night (5-for-17 on threes). Meanwhile, Purdue avoided a potential road speed bump on the same night that Michigan State did not - a one game swing that could potentially make the difference in the Big Ten title race at season's end.

The difference in this game was Purdue's dominant front line. AJ Hammons in particular was unstoppable, scoring 24 points on 9-for-14 shooting. Purdue had a 34-to-20 advantage in paint points, and also put Wisconsin in constant foul trouble with a 19-to-11 advantage in fouls called. Purdue has to avoid a letdown with a crucial home game against Iowa on Saturday.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

W-11 BP68

Christmas Week is always a quiet week in college basketball, though we did end in a flurry with that fantastic Louisville/Kentucky game.

As I often do, I see more positives in the team that loses a big game (Louisville) than the team that wins a big game (Kentucky). For one, losing by two points on the road is itself slight evidence that you are the better team. Second, Louisville was missing a more important player (Mathiang) to Kentucky (Briscoe) - Louisville's paint defense just took such a large step back without Mathiang. And most importantly, Kentucky shot out of their minds, hitting 11-for-23 behind the arc. In fact, the last time Kentucky hit 11 or more three-pointers in a regulation game at a 47%+ rate was November 16, 2012 - more than three years ago.

Because of those positives, Louisville actually slides up a seed line in my projected bracket, from a 5 seed to a 4 seed. Kentucky stays where they were, as the SEC favorite and a projected 2 seed (though the gap is small enough that Kentucky is still probably earning a 1 seed if they sweep the SEC titles).

Louisville's strong performance was not the only news from this week. The Diamond Head Classic was a break-out tournament for Hawaii, who enter the bracket as the new Big West favorite (replacing UC-Irvine). Harvard also showed a strong resurgence after a slow start to their season, emphasizing that the Ivy League should be a really fun four-team race. And of course Buddy Hield was dominant, and will potentially become the National Player of the Year favorite if Denzel Valentine's injury gets dragged out or if he's not at 100% when he returns.

In addition to Hawaii replacing UC-Irvine, there is one other change to the bracket, which is Colorado entering and Georgetown exiting.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. Virginia
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Oklahoma

3. Duke
3. Purdue
3. Xavier
3. Maryland

4. Iowa State
4. Baylor
4. Louisville
4. Miami-Florida

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. UCONN (AAC)
5. Cincinnati
5. Butler

6. Vanderbilt
6. Texas A&M
6. West Virginia
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

7. Iowa
7. Oregon
7. Utah
7. Pittsburgh

8. UCLA
8. Texas
8. Indiana
8. Providence

9. Michigan
9. South Carolina
9. Florida State
9. Florida

10. Notre Dame
10. Davidson
10. California
10. Oregon State

11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Wisconsin
11. Colorado
11. George Washington
11. Syracuse
11. LSU

12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

14. UT-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
14. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. BELMONT (OVC)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, VCU, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Boise State, UNLV, Arizona State, USC, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Creighton, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, William & Mary, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Houston, Temple, Clemson, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, TCU, UC-Irvine, UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Kent State, Southern Illinois, Fresno State, New Mexico, Stanford, Washington State, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas-Little Rock

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

How To Inflate Your Resume: How Texas Tech Built A Nearly Perfect Schedule

Tubby Smith has talked in interviews about how important RPI is to his scheduling

The topic of RPI manipulation is a controversial one. Some coaches actively do it, while others deny that it's possible. The NCAA powers that be don't seem to believe that RPI manipulation is possible, or they assume that the Selection Committee can see through it.

The reality is that RPI manipulation is real, and surprisingly easy. Unlike complicated and well-developed computer ratings like Pomeroy or Sagarin (college football has ratings like S&P), the RPI is extremely simple. You can see the formula here.

There are two huge flaws with the RPI. The first is that home/road is poorly taken into account. In fact, home/road is not taken into account at all in RPI SOS. So you want to avoid road games as much as you can. The second gigantic flaw is that the RPI does not consider how good the teams you play actually are, but rather what their W-L record is and what the W-L record of their opponents is.

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Here's an extreme example from last season:

Xavier went just 23-14 due to a very difficult schedule, which was why they finished 22nd in Pomeroy and earned a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Albany went 24-9 despite not being a very good team thanks to a very soft schedule, which was why they were just 128th in Pomeroy and earned just a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On first glance, the RPI seems to have these teams rated properly: Xavier was 28th in RPI and 8th in RPI SOS, while Albany was 104th in RPI and 277th in RPI SOS.

The problem? Via the RPI formula, your RPI SOS is better off facing Albany than facing Xavier. In fact, facing Albany at home would be treated better than facing Xavier on the road. Imagine you were a team that just narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament, such as Temple. Via the Sagarin ratings, Temple would have been a 10 point underdog at Xavier and a 10 point favorite at home vs Albany. Yet they'd get more credit for the Albany game. That's a massive gap for creative coaches to exploit.
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So let's say you want to manipulate your RPI. What are the three main rules to follow (along with caveats/clarifications):

1. Avoid Road Games Like The Plague*
      *1A. Road games are okay if they are against truly elite (Top 15 or so) teams.
2. Avoid playing the dregs of Division I (RPI 250+).
      2A. If you require a couple of true "cupcake" games, try to replace them with non-Division I opponents and with .500+ teams from bad conferences.
3. Schedule as many home games as you can against RPI Top 50 opponents.

So that brings us to a potential bubble team that has put together a nearly perfect schedule this season: Texas Tech. How did they do on each rule?

1. Avoid road games like the plague The only non-conference road game on Texas Tech's schedule is a non-voluntary game: Arkansas in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.
2. Avoid playing the dregs of Division I They do have one slip-up here, facing a bad Arkansas-Pine Bluff team. But besides that they have Tennessee-Martin (projected to finish ~.500), Sam Houston State (a contender in the Southland), and then every mid-major team on their schedule is likely to finish in the RPI Top 150. It's hard to find any other team in the nation that will do a better job of avoiding the dregs of Division I.
3. Schedule as many home games as you can against RPI Top 50 opponents Texas Tech has a slew of 2014-15 Albany-type teams in South Dakota State, UA-Little Rock, High Point, and Hawaii, all of which they have played at home. And in conference play they will get plenty of more traditional RPI Top 50 opponents in the very deep Big 12. To earn an at-large bid, Texas Tech will need "RPI Top 50 wins", but even last season, when they were the worst team in the Big 12, they still collected home wins vs Iowa State and Oklahoma State while coming up just short against Oklahoma (overtime), Baylor (5 points), and Texas (9 points). This is the significant built-in advantage that power conference teams have over mid-majors, who struggle mightily to get RPI Top 50 teams on their home court.

Just how valuable is Texas Tech's scheduling? We can compare their potential RPI to other Big 12 teams (since the Big 12 has a full round-robin schedule) using RPIForecast. Right now, Pomeroy projects Texas Tech to go 8-10 in Big 12 play while Sagarin projects 7-11, and Texas Tech has zero non-conference wins over teams likely to finish in the RPI Top 50, so that seems like a resume that shouldn't be particularly close to an at-large bid.

Let's compare Texas Tech to other .500-ish and potential bubble Big 12 teams: Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Texas has a win over North Carolina with only one iffy loss (Washington). Baylor has a win over Vanderbilt with no bad losses. West Virginia and Kansas State have no very good wins but no bad losses either. So looking at their non-conference performances alone, Texas and Baylor seem to be in a better spot than Texas Tech, while Kansas State and West Virginia are comparable. What RPI are these teams projected to finish with:

Go 7-11 in Big 12 play:
47 - Texas Tech
53 - West Virginia
56 - Texas
67 - Kansas State
69 - Baylor

Go 8-10 in Big 12 play:
37 - Texas Tech
45 - Texas
46 - West Virginia
54 - Baylor
54 - Kansas State

Go 9-9 in Big 12 play:
28 - Texas Tech
36 - Texas
36 - West Virginia
42 - Kansas State
42 - Baylor

So despite Baylor playing better than Texas Tech, they would be 15-20 spots in RPI worse than Texas Tech for the same conference performance. Even Texas, with that massive win over North Carolina and despite playing in a better Thanksgiving Week tournament than Texas Tech (important for RPI purposes) would still likely finish around ten slots lower in RPI than Texas Tech for the same conference performance.

How valuable is that? Well, in the history of the 64+ team NCAA Tournament, no power conference team with an RPI of 40 or better has ever failed to earn an at-large bid. All Texas Tech likely needs to finish in the Top 40 is go 8-10 in the Big 12, despite likely zero RPI Top 50 wins in non-conference play. That is staggering.

In other words, if Texas Tech goes 8-10 or 9-9 in Big 12 play, they are a near certainty to make the NCAA Tournament because of their schedule. And for that, Tubby Smith deserves a ton of credit. It's dumb that the RPI rules this sport the way it does, but as long as it does you have to take advantage of it.

Morning News: Iowa State Survives Cincinnati, Denzel Valentine's Injury, Purdue Wins Ugly, And More

This is not where Michigan State fans want to see Denzel Valentine.
Iowa State Survives Cincinnati At The Buzzer This one went back and forth throughout the second half, and we probably would've gotten a "Hilton Magic" narrative if this game had been in Ames. Iowa State had little trouble with the normally fearsome Cincinnati defense, finishing with 16 assists to just 7 turnovers, and a sharp 1.19 PPP. Only one team in the last past three years has scored more than that against Cincinnati (Temple, on February 10, 2015). Still, Cincinnati hit enough shots of their own to actually take a four point with with around two minutes to go. In the end it was Abdel Nader who hit the three-pointer to put Iowa State ahead with 11 seconds left, and none of the zillion chances Cincinnati had in the final flurry managed to fall. In all, the Bearcats scored just a single point on their final four possessions:
Iowa State escapes after Cincinnati misses buzzer-beater - ESPN Video
This win will be a nice one for Iowa State's resume and is a missed opportunity for Cincinnati, but outside of those practical implications I don't think it tells us too much about these two teams. We know Iowa State can score and we know that they're a good team. We know Cincinnati is a contender in the AAC. Nothing on those two fronts changes with this result.

Denzel Valentine To Miss 2-3 Weeks It's probably worthwhile to be a little skeptical that a player can come back 100% from arthroscopic knee surgery in two weeks, but for now Michigan State seems confident that he will. The frontrunner for National Player of the Year, he is obviously a huge absence for the Spartans. Their first game without him, last night, hinted at that worry, as they needed overtime to overcome Oakland. If there's a winner from this injury, it's Iowa. If we consider Purdue, Iowa, and Maryland to be the other teams in the Big Ten's Top Four, Michigan State plays Iowa twice before they play either Purdue or Maryland. They head to Carver-Hawkeye for a game next week.

Purdue Wins Ugly Over Vanderbilt Purdue shot an atrocious 2-for-19 on threes, and hit just 19% of their jump shots overall. How did they win with such ugly shooting? For one, Vanderbilt wasn't much better, hitting just 28% of their jump shots. And Purdue's front line dominated inside. They had only a 30-to-26 advantage in paint points, but had a 31-to-11 advantage in free throw attempts. AJ Hammons in particular was a monster: 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks.

Purdue finishes non-conference play 12-1 with wins over Vanderbilt, Florida, Pittsburgh, and New Mexico, with only that one loss to Butler. It's a solid performance, and it will be sufficient to put them in the 1 seed discussion if they take the Big Ten title.

Vanderbilt is now 0-4 against likely RPI Top 50 opponents, but dismiss them at your own peril. Their 1-4 record in games decided by 7 points or fewer suggests that they're better than their record. They're still Top 20 in both the Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings. Kentucky is still the SEC favorite, but Vanderbilt is in the second tier with Texas A&M, ready to pounce if the Wildcats slip up.

London Perrantes Saves Virginia Against California Virginia came into this game rated the #1 offense in the nation by Pomeroy, but they struggled badly with their jump shot here, hitting just 26% of them. Their offensive struggles put them in an 11 point second half hole, but they pulled out of it, and got to overtime on a spectacular Malcolm Brogdon defensive play. Then, in overtime, Tony Bennett called up a beautiful final play for London Perrantes:
CAL vs. UVA - ESPN Video
This game meant more for California than Virginia, of course. The Cavaliers are likely going to end up a 1 or 2 seed in March regardless of this result. Cal, however, seems likely to be on the Tourney bubble in March. A win over Virginia would have been huge for that resume. Instead, Saint Mary's remains the only likely RPI Top 100 team they have beaten so far. Their game against Davidson on Monday will be significant for getting something out of non-conference play.

DePaul Routs George Washington Sometimes it's just not your day. George Washington hit just 3-for-21 behind the arc, and just 18% of their jump shots overall. Their defense was also a mess, allowing 1.26 PPP to a DePaul team that didn't score that efficiently all of last season (they did score 1.28 PPP earlier this season against Norfolk State).

It's an ugly loss for a George Washington team that was probably due for a little bit of a reality check after moving into the Top 25 in the polls. They were not one of the 25 best teams in the nation, and with this bad loss have actually dropped out of the Top 60 of both Pomeroy and Sagarin. The Colonials have to watch out for a dangerous road game at UCF on Tuesday. A loss there would undo much of the good that they did for their resume by beating Virginia.

Dyshawn Pierre Set To Return For Dayton Dayton has been the top-performing Atlantic Ten team thus far, and they are going to get even better with the return of Dyshawn Pierre, who averaged 12.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game last season. The Flyers already have wins over Iowa, Vanderbilt, and Monmouth as well, so they are in good shape to earn an at-large bid even if they fall in the A-10 tournament.

Amida Brimah Out 6-8 Weeks Brimah has blocked 16.7% of two-pointers attempted by opponents while on the court this season, which is second best in the entire nation. That tells you how significant this loss is, despite the fact that Brimah doesn't do much offensively. Presumably, we will see significantly more playing time for Kentan Facey and Steven Enoch, though they can conceivably play Shonn Miller as the center against smaller opponents. UConn remains a likely NCAA Tournament team, but this injury is going to make it significantly more difficult for them to win the AAC title.

Northern Iowa Falls To Hawaii This was no "upset", as Hawaii was actually a 3.5 point favorite in Vegas. And herein lies the problem for this game, and for Northern Iowa's chances of an at-large bid, as I warned a few days ago. They have those two great wins (Iowa State and North Carolina), but now have a few dicey losses (Colorado State and Hawaii, and then perhaps Richmond and/or New Mexico), and any loss they suffer in conference play other than Wichita State will be a "bad" loss as well. They are going to need to avoid any more losses in Hawaii, and then they're going to need to go at least 14-4 in Missouri Valley play to earn that at-large bid.

Meanwhile, Hawaii is staring at a postseason ban for next season, so they need to make this season count. Now 8-1, and up 77th in the Pomeroy ratings, they are looking like the potential Big West favorite and perhaps something like a 13 seed if they can win the Big West tourney.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Morning News: Jakob Poeltl Leads Utah Over Duke, Virginia Outshoots Villanova, Northern Iowa Takes Down Another One, And More

Jakob Poeltl dominated Duke's short-handed front court.
New Bracket Projection Oregon State moves in, replacing UNLV. Also, Monmouth replaces Iona as the MAAC favorite while High Point replaces Winthrop as the Big South favorite. Much more, along with details of teams like Northern Iowa and LSU, is at the link.

Jakob Poeltl Leads Utah Over Duke Jakob Poeltl is the National Player of the Year candidate who unfortunately isn't yet a National Player of the Year candidate because nobody is talking about him. I've said this before, but I'd be happy if he could get at least 1% of the hype that Ben Simmons gets. He was a dominant defensive player last season, but this season has done what you want to see out of a star sophomore: he has developed a dominant offensive game, too. He owned the Duke front line here, hitting 8-for-11 from the field along with 14 rebounds and 3 blocks. And after a disappointing start to the season, Utah finally has a quality win that they can build a resume around.

With Amile Jefferson out, the thought was that Duke would lean more on the 5-star freshman Chase Jeter. Interestingly, despite Poeltl dominating, Duke did no such thing. Jeter played only 6 minutes. Marshall Plumlee did little of nothing in 26 minutes before he fouled out. Duke did get a reasonably strong game out of Brandon Ingram (15 points, 3 steals, and 3 blocks), but he can't defend big men in the paint and he's a poor rebounder for his height. It will be interesting to see if Coach K gives Jeter a longer look against a softer opponent than Poeltl.

Virginia Outshoots Villanova There might be no team in the nation as dependent on three-point shooting as Villanova, and while they will be able to get past inferior foes if those shots aren't falling, they won't get past a team like Virginia. The Cavaliers were a white hot 8-for-12 behind the arc while Villanova hit just 10-for-26. There might not be another team that defends jump shots as well as Virginia, but the real story is Villanova continuing to be unable to hit outside shots, despite the staggering number that they take (50.7% of all field goals). They're down to 31% as a team, without a single player over 38%. Villanova should be shooting the ball better, and they probably eventually will, but we're pretty far into the season for their shooting to be this much worse than expectations.

With back to back wins over West Virginia and Villanova, Virginia is up to #1 in the nation in the Pomeroy ratings. They're only 5th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but still firmly in the hunt for the ACC title and a 1 seed. Perhaps more interesting than how good they've been is that they are once again doing it offensively (Pomeroy rates their offense #1 in the nation). But because of their slow tempo, they will continue to play low scoring games, and the media will continue to credit the "pack line defense", because the media always loves coaching systems with names.

Northern Iowa Takes Down Another Top Ten Team It's hard to credit anything for this result other than three-point shooting. Northern Iowa hit 13-for-22 behind the arc while Iowa State hit 3-for-17. Take that away and everything else was in Iowa State's favor. They won the rebounding battle, won the turnover battle, shot better on two-pointers, and had a massive 52-to-26 advantage in paint scoring. Basically, Iowa State was the better team and were undone by fluky shooting. And even with that fluky shooting, Iowa State had the ball down by only a single point with 15 seconds to go, but Georges Niang lost his balance and threw the ball away. After Wes Washpun hit one of two at the line, Monte Morris had one final chance:
M. Morris missed Jumper. - ESPN Video
With wins over North Carolina and Iowa State, Northern Iowa is not just building a Tournament resume for themselves, but collecting quality wins for the Missouri Valley Conference, which will benefit Wichita State as well. They have a very tricky road game at Hawaii on Tuesday, but if they can get the win then they'll end up 8-3 in non-conference play and will be in good shape if they can get to 14-4 in conference play.

Kentucky Falls To Ohio State In a battle between two poor shooting team, both of these teams actually shot the ball fairly well. Both teams had season high three-point percentages, in fact, and this game was driven by the shooting streaks. When Kentucky was down by 16 points they turned the game around with six-straight three-pointers. At one point during that 29-16 run, Ohio State missed six straight jump shots.

You don't want to draw too many narrative conclusions from a single game, of course, but this Ohio State team is so young, and if they start playing significantly better the rest of the season then we will all point back to this game as the moment that they started playing like an NCAA Tournament team. But you can't draw those conclusions from one game. We need to see the Buckeyes play this well a few times in a row.

Kentucky fans are putting a lot of the blame on Skal Labissiere (an invisible 2 points and 5 rebounds). The narrative that he "isn't tough enough" that keeps bouncing around is stupid, but there's no doubt that Labissiere has not been living up to the huge hype heading into college. In contrast, Jamal Murray was a monster here, scoring 33 of Kentucky's 67 points. He is emerging as Kentucky's clear #1 offensive threat, but he's going to need some help if Kentucky is going to be a Top Ten team in the nation.

Butler Holds Off Purdue This was a weird game in that both of these teams, honestly, did a lot to blow this game. Purdue's offensive execution was poor all game. They committed 17 turnovers and had some brutally bad shots down the stretch. Butler, meanwhile, got perhaps the worst game of Kellen Dunham's career. Dunham finished 0-for-12 from the field with 0 assists and a crucial late game turnover. The difference in this game, if there was one, was the perimeter offensive execution by Butler. Roosevelt Jones had 19 points, 5 assists, and 10 rebounds. Purdue depends heavily on their big men to score, and is never going to get much production on the perimeter.

I don't think this game tells us too much about these two teams that we didn't already know. Purdue is still a Big Ten contender, though Michigan State is rightly the favorite. Butler looks to be in the mix in the Big East, though not quite at the level of Villanova (or perhaps Xavier also). Two of their first four Big East games will be against Villanova and Xavier, so we'll get an early look at how they match up against those two teams.

North Carolina Holds Off UCLA This game was tied at halftime, but a 13-0 run in the second half was the difference in what ended up a 13 point final score. Brice Johnson had to step up with Kennedy Meeks out hurt, and he did in a big way, scoring 27 points (on 11-for-12 shooting) and a team-high 9 rebounds. UCLA struggled with the pressure North Carolina applies on games, committing 17 turnovers, which was their highest turnover rate (23%) since November 23rd.

This was a missed opportunity for UCLA, but it's safe to say that they're happy getting out of non-conference play with wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga. They're probably not a serious Pac-12 contender, but for now they look like a Tournament team.

As for North Carolina, it's clear that Virginia is going to pose a significant challenge in the ACC, but the Tar Heels have done nothing so far that suggests they're not a serious contender for the ACC and a 1 seed in March. Getting Kennedy Meeks back before that road game at Florida State would be nice, though.

Texas A&M Routs Baylor This is a relatively small Baylor team compared to what Scott Drew has usually had in recent years. Of their top eight minute earners, just three are over 6'5", and none are over 6'9". They can still get on the offensive glass as well as any team in the nation, but they can be overpowered by large front lines, and Texas A&M has one of the more physical front lines in the nation. They had an 18-to-8 advantage in layups/dunks, and a 38-to-22 advantage in paint points. In a game where neither team could hit their jump shots well, that paint domination was the difference.

This is a worrying result for a Baylor team that has spent most of the season dominating inferior teams. It might be a sign that they're going to struggle a bit more when they hit to Big 12 play. As for Texas A&M, it was assumed that they were in the second tier of the SEC with Vanderbilt, but with Kentucky's struggles you have to wonder if the Aggies and the 'Dores think they might have a shot to steal the conference.

New Mexico Pulls A Chris Webber It's hard to lose in worse fashion than this. New Mexico blew a 17 point lead midway through the second half, but that wasn't the worst part. The worst part was that in a scramble for the ball in a tie game with 0.1 seconds left, Tim Williams called for a timeout that his team did not have. The ensuing technical foul delivered a bad loss for a New Mexico team without much margin for error if they're going to make an at-large run in March. Watch the play below:
Indiana Tops Notre Dame As bad as the Indiana defense is, they're always going to be dangerous when they're hitting their threes. They hit 50% behind the arc here, compared to 28% for Notre Dame. That said, this game was about more than just shooting. Indiana has quietly been a very good offensive rebounding team, and they rebounded 51% of their misses here, pushing their season average up to 40.4%, which is 9th best in the nation. Their defense is still a tire fire (even with Notre Dame's ice cold outside shooting, the Irish still scored 1.11 PPP), but the offensive rebounding will help keep the Hoosiers offense much more consistent than it was last season.

Indiana is in the Top 25 of both the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings, though this is their first "quality" win of the season. A big part of that is bad scheduling by Tom Crean. The only other likely RPI Top 50 team they have faced this season was Duke at Cameron Indoor, which was never going to be a likely victory. If they really are as good as their computer ratings, however, they'll have plenty of chances to build a resume in Big Ten play.

Notre Dame will now likely end non-conference play 9-3 with a win over Iowa and iffy losses to Monmouth and Alabama. It's not a great resume, but an 11-7 ACC play will send them to the NCAA Tournament. If they go 9-9 or 10-8 then they'll be around the bubble.

Mathiang Out 6-8 Weeks The result of this game was never in doubt, nor was it expected to be. The story was the injury to Mangok Mathiang. Mathiang is no big offensive scorer, but he is a key defensive player on a defense currently ranked 6th best in the nation by Pomeroy. And this is really bad timing for Louisville considering how poor Rick Pitino planned his team's schedule. Despite looking great, and being rated one of the ten best teams in the nation by most computer ratings, their only game against a future RPI Top 100 opponent was on the road at Michigan State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and they lost. That means that unless they upset Kentucky without Mathiang, they will enter ACC play with zero quality victories.

Wichita State Falls This was the first time that Wichita State had their big three (Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, and Anton Grady) on the court at the same time since their second game of the season. Anton Grady was clearly not fully himself yet, but this was still a very disappointing performance for the Shockers after back-to-back nice wins over UNLV and Utah. The problem here were turnovers, as their 26.9% turnover rate was their worst in a game since January 13, 2013. VanVleet personally had 6 turnovers to only 3 assists.

Seton Hall has quietly been playing bubble-quality basketball the past few weeks, in large part because of greater balance. Isaiah Whitehead is still an inefficient volume scorer (he was 5-for-16 from the field here), but they got a nice performance out of Desi Rodriguez (18 points on 5-for-9 shooting) here, and Angel Delgado continues to be one of the better big men in the Big East. Seton Hall now has a quality win to cancel out that bad loss to Long Beach State, and they will be in the bubble mix if they can finish .500 or better in Big East play.

UNC-Asheville Stuns Georgetown Georgetown's defense has been a mess the past three games, and while they managed to escape with a narrow win over UNC-Wilmington they suffered losses to Monmouth and now UNC-Asheville. And in this three game stretch against low/mid-major opponents, Georgetown is allowing 1.10 PPP. For the season they are allowing 1.00 PPP despite a few cupcakes. They are struggling in particular with perimeter dribble drives, allowing easy baskets and also committing a ton of fouls. Georgetown had two players foul out here (including LJ Peak after just 15 minutes) while allowing UNC-Asheville 27 free throw attempts.

Georgetown is now 6-5 with wins over Syracuse and Wisconsin to go with iffy/bad losses to Radford, UNC-Asheville, and Monmouth. That's not a Tournament resume, and realistically Georgetown probably needs to go at least 10-8 in Big East play to earn an at-large bid.

UNC-Asheville, meanwhile, is no cupcake. They only lost by 4 points at Tennessee, and are in the mix with several teams for the Big South title.

W-12 BP68

We are only 12 weeks away have Selection Sunday, which means that we have only 10 weeks to the start of conference tournaments. It's really not that far away, huh?

Finals Week and winter break are always the lull before the storm in college basketball. There was not a ton of action this week, and there won't be a ton next week, though we did have a great slate of games on Saturday, and will continue to have plenty of good basketball to watch as we near the start of the major conference regular seasons.

One note this week is about an LSU team that I have been keeping in my projected bracket, despite some in the media already counting them out after their poor start. While those losses will not be forgotten, they will feel like a long time ago in March, and LSU has looked significantly better in two games since having both Craig Victor and Keith Hornsby in their active roster. They have drastically reduced their margin for error, but at this point I give LSU the edge over teams like Colorado, Ohio State, and Northern Iowa.

A quick note on Northern Iowa: They now have two great wins, but the Missouri Valley is not what it used to be, and UNI has a mid-week road game at Hawaii that should scare the hell out of their fan base. You can make a good case that Hawaii should be favored in Vegas for that one.

Among at-large teams there was one change to the projected bracket this week: Oregon State moves in, replacing UNLV. Among the auto-bids, Monmouth replaces Iona as the MAAC favorite, while High Point replaces Winthrop as the Big South favorite.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. Virginia
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Oklahoma

3. Duke
3. Purdue
3. Xavier
3. Maryland

4. Iowa State
4. UCONN (AAC)
4. Baylor
4. GONZAGA (WCC)

5. Cincinnati
5. Miami-Florida
5. Louisville
5. Vanderbilt

6. Butler
6. Texas A&M
6. West Virginia
6. UCLA

7. Oregon
7. Iowa
7. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Utah

8. Dayton
8. Texas
8. Indiana
8. Pittsburgh

9. Notre Dame
9. Providence
9. Michigan
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

10. Georgetown
10. Florida State
10. South Carolina
10. Wisconsin

11. Syracuse
11. George Washington
11. Florida
11. California
11. LSU
11. Oregon State

12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)

14. UT-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
14. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, NC State, Rhode Island, VCU, Marquette, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Ohio State, Northern Iowa, Boise State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado, USC, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Creighton, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, William & Mary, Evansville, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Houston, Temple, Virginia Tech, Fordham, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, TCU, Hawaii, Northeastern, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Kent State, Fresno State, Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas-Little Rock

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Morning News: Bo Ryan Retires, Naz Long Done, Amile Jefferson Out Indefinitely, And More

Bo Ryan Retires This maybe wasn't completely out of left field, as Ryan had said he was going to retire at the end of the season. But it's still tough to hear that one of the great coaches (and great overall human beings) in the sport is gone. The obvious reasoning here is that Ryan wants to give "his guy", assistant coach Greg Gard, the chance to prove that he can coach the team. If the rest of the season does not go well, one would have to expect that Tony Bennett will be Wisconsin's top target.

One thing that Greg Gard or whoever the next coach is will have is what should be a loaded roster for next season. It seems doubtful that Nigel Hayes will go pro, which means that every scholarship player will return, as well as Andy Van Vliet (ruled ineligible this season), and with two more scholarships available to hand out. Can't ask for much of a better situation than that.

Naz Long Done For The Season Naz Long will try to get a medical redshirt to come back next season, but this is a significant problem for this season. Long had started every game he had played in this season, averaging 12.0 points per game. In terms of the starting lineup, I don't think there will be a huge drop-off, as Hallice Cooke (who stands to likely gain the most minutes) is arguably a better player than Long is. The severe problem is depth, as Iowa State had played a seven-man rotation all season long. They have Deonte Burton becoming eligible after a transfer, but that will still leave Iowa State with just a seven man rotation for the rest of the season. They will continue to be vulnerable to foul trouble.

Amile Jefferson Out Indefinitely At this point, the extent of the Amile Jefferson injury is not known, but it doesn't sound like he'll be back anytime soon. And this is a significant injury, as Jefferson was arguably the most important player on the roster. He had started every game and led the team in rebounds (10.3 per game) while also scoring 11.4 points per game and being a key defensive player. This leaves Duke with only one real big man (Marshall Plumlee) averaging double-digit minutes per game. Brandon Ingram is 6'9", but he weighs approximately 73 pounds, and Coach K likes to play him at the top of the key defensively.

The player who will see his role increase the most is Chase Jeter, the true freshman. The depth of Coach K's recruiting allows him to just have another 5-star recruit on the bench ready to go. But that still leaves Duke with only a seven man rotation. If Coach K needs an 8th man, the two options would be Sean Obi or Antonio Vrankovic, though he has shown zero inclination to play either big man outside of garbage time thus far.

Kennedy Meeks Hurt It sounds as though this injury will cost Meeks somewhere between two and four weeks. Meeks had started every game this season and was averaging 12.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. The good news for North Carolina is that their ACC schedule is backloaded. Meeks will miss the UCLA game next week, but the next game the Tar Heels will play that is not at home against a Pomeroy 60+ opponent will not be until January 4th, when Meeks be back for the road game at Florida State. None of their games against Duke, Virginia, Louisville, or Miami will happen before February.

Monmouth Tops Georgetown As much as I love the Monmouth bench celebrations, it's in a way taking away from how good this team has played on the court. They have beaten Notre Dame, Georgetown, UCLA, and USC, with none of those wins coming at home. At the same time, they only had one "bad" loss, and even that loss wasn't terrible (on the road at Canisius). They are currently 54th in Pomeroy and 42nd in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Realistically, earning an at-large bid out of the MAAC is nearly impossible, and at some point their 3P% and FT% defense luck will probably regress (they're Top 40 in the nation in the both), but Monmouth is the type of team that could win multiple games in the NCAA Tournament with the right draw. Monmouth bench guys, how do you feel about that?
So what happened in this game? Monmouth's hot three-point shooting was a major factor (10-for-20 on threes compared to 7-for-29 for Georgetown), but not the only reason. Georgetown shot much better on two-point jumpers (overall they had a 39.3 eFG% on jumpers while Monmouth was at 57.1%). Monmouth actually had an 18-16 advantage in paint scoring. This game was also disjointed, with 49 fouls leading to 70 free throw attempts. Both teams hit more free throws than field goals. Monmouth was a sharp 84% there (up to 82.0% on the season).

Georgetown has had two weirdly mediocre performances in a row. Is it cause for alarm? Not yet. They still have wins over Syracuse and Wisconsin, and they played very close games into the final minute away from home against both Duke and Maryland. They get a chance to get in rhythm now, as they won't play another likely RPI Top 50 opponent for a full month. Their Big East schedule is very backloaded, as DePaul, St. John's, Marquette, and Creighton make up all of their first five games.

AJ West Leaves Nevada What chances Nevada had at contending in the Mountain West appear dashed with the loss of AJ West. West led the team in points, rebounds, and blocks last season, but "personal issues" had led his playing time to be slowly reduced this season, and he is now gone from the team for good.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

How Did The College Football Playoff Committee Rank Teams?


So just what does the College Football Playoff Committee rank? Countless hours are spent on television, on radio, on the internet, and in newspapers trying to figure that out. At the end of the season, we can try to answer that question.

The first thing you have to realize about the process is that you have to ignore everything Jeff Long says. Jeff Long clearly loves to be playful on television, and so he babbles about "body clocks" and "record vs +.500 opponents" and bad weather and injured players and how "well-rounded" a team is, and other nonsense that is not actually being taken into account.

Before getting to the data, it's worth remembering two things:

1. When people say "Ranking the beat teams" they mean "Ranking the best resumes"
We see this in college basketball all the time. Those of us who understand analytics have to realize that most fans, media, administrators, and other people involved in the sport do not understand analytics. The idea that a team can be better or worse than their resume due to luck in close games does not occur to them. So when they rank the best resumes (or "most accomplished teams") they will announce that they are ranking the best teams. They aren't. To use an example from this college football season: USC is generally rated in good computer ratings as a better team than Iowa. They'd probably be favored in Vegas on a neutral field. Literally zero people are arguing that USC should be ranked ahead of Iowa, and for good reason.

2. The human brain is not actually capable of ranking teams on a dozen different factors
Imagine if you asked a computer code to rank teams by who is best, who played the toughest schedule, who controlled games more, who was most well-balanced, who was the best on the road, and who won a conference championship, all while taking into account injuries, body clocks, lineup changes, and the weather. That computer would give you no answer, because no answer exists. Those are contradictory metrics, often with no objective meaning, and with no weighted value.

Even if Jeff Long created a weighted metric ("We're judging teams 25% on how good they are, 30% on how accomplished they were, 20% on SOS, 10% on team balance, and 15% on game control, with a 5% discount on injuries,  and a 5% discount on weather"), nobody would be able to do that kind of math in their head. That's just beyond the human capacity. Human brains will create mental shortcuts.

With that in mind, let's see how closely the playoff rankings compared to a pair of ratings of team quality (S&P and the Sagarin PREDICTOR), a rating of team resume strength (Massey), and the AP Poll, with the y-axis being the root mean square average of all 25 teams ranked by the Playoff Committee each week:

The first thing you notice is that, unsurprisingly, the Playoff Committee rankings aren't even close to the S&P or Sagarin PREDICTOR. They're not rating how good the teams are. We knew that already.

The second thing you notice is that the Playoff Committee rankings are not closing in on any of the computer ratings over time - in fact, they're getting further away. Despite five extra weeks of information between the first and last playoff ranking, the Playoff Committee took no extra information into account. This is consistent with Ken Pomeroy's repeated observations that the preseason AP Poll does a better job of predicting NCAA Tournament success than the postseason AP Poll. The arcane polling rules and procedures actually make the polls less accurate as more games are played and more information is available.

The third thing you notice is that the Playoff Committee ratings aren't really that close to the Massey resume strength rating either. Instead they very closely mirror the AP Poll, and get closer as the season goes along. And in fact, even the final root mean square error for the AP Poll (2.02) is inflated by the teams near the bottom of the Top 25, where less attention is paid. If you look just at the Top 10, the root mean square error is 0.44. Eight of the top ten teams in the playoff rankings are identical to the AP poll, and the other two are a single spot off. In contrast, seven of the top ten teams are at least two spots off their Massey ratings.

In other words:

3. The AP Poll and Playoff Rankings converge over time
How you want to attribute this "group think" is debatable. Narratives are powerful things in sports, and the narratives feed back on themselves and we all end up agreeing in the end, and that's all that matters. By the end of the season, everybody agreed that Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Michigan State were the top four teams in some order. The opinions had converged. In contrast, even Massey's resume ratings disagreed there, as that had Ohio State #4.

4. In Other Words, The Playoffs Are A Four Team BCS
As I originally predicted, narratives are too strong in college football for the Playoff Committee to challenge conventional wisdom. We all know the college football ranking rules:

A. Within each conference, teams are ranked by # of losses, so all 11-1 SEC teams will be ahead of all 10-2 SEC teams which will be ahead of all 9-3 SEC teams.
B. When two teams have the same number of losses, the first tiebreaker will be perceived conference strength. So, 1-loss SEC teams will always be ahead of 1-loss Big Ten teams.
C. If two teams are close in the polls (either because they have the same number of losses or, say, a 2-loss team from a superior conference vs a 1-loss team from a weaker conference), then we can start getting into the weeds on who has a better win, or who lost most recently, or whatever other ad hoc argument you want to make.

5. Want to make the Playoffs? Build the easiest schedule possible, get lucky, and win your conference.
Since we're ranking teams by the old fashioned AP Poll rules and not by actual resume strength, the benefit to beating a good team is pretty small. If you have two different Big Ten teams tied with two losses then, sure, having a great non-conference win can be the tiebreaker. But if you're a 3-loss Big Ten team with the world's greatest non-conference SOS you will never be ranked ahead of a 2-loss Big Ten team that played Little Sisters Of The Poor four times. It's just not worth the vastly increased risk of a loss for the slight chance that you'll miss out on the playoffs over a "polling tiebreaker".

Most years, every 1-loss major conference champion will qualify for the playoffs. Certainly any undefeated major conference team will be a lock. So make sure you go undefeated in non-conference play, avoid picking up more than one loss in conference play, and then win your conference title game. That'll get you in.

That's easier said than done, of course. But as Iowa proved this past season, you don't have to be a particularly good team to pull this off. They were borderline Top 25 in most every computer rating, yet came within a single play of winning the Big Ten title game and earning a playoff spot. It took some luck, but it's always going to take luck for any team to make the playoffs. All you can do is improve your odds with smart scheduling, and by playing into the prevailing narratives.

Monday, December 14, 2015

Morning News: Breaking Down St. John's Upsetting Syracuse And LSU Losing Again

Chris Mullin got his first nice win in Madison Square Garden.
St. John's Upsets Syracuse This is a huge victory for Chris Mullin after an ugly start to the season. They had a loss to Fordham and zero wins against a Pomeroy Top 200 opponent. It finally gives this program something to build on.

That said, St. John's fans need to understand two things about this win. First of all, it was a fluke much more than it was meaningful of anything. The Johnnies shot 12-for-24 on threes while Syracuse was 5-for-26. Syracuse has been the better three-point shooting team this season, and if you believe that 3P% defense is a thing (and there is evidence that it can have a small effect) then Syracuse has usually had an above average 3P% against under Jim Boeheim. In other words, take the 3P% luck in this game and Syracuse likely wins this game easily. In addition, St. John's fans need to realize that this season would be going even worse if not for FT% luck. St. John's is 2nd in the nation with a 58.1 FT% against. For example, Rutgers shot just 5-for-14 at the line when they lost by 2 to St. John's. Niagara shot just 13-for-24 at the line when they lost by 4 to the Johnnies. So St. John's could easily have another bad loss or two.

Those fluky shooting stats don't wash away this Syracuse performance, however, because St. John's exploited the rebounding woes that have plagued Syracuse all season long. Syracuse is now 335th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They're in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether if they can't become at least a mediocre defensive rebounding team.

LSU Goes Down Again Houston closed as a 2 point favorite in Vegas for this game, so technically it was not an "upset", though is says something about LSU's season so far that this was the case. All season, the hopes for an LSU turnaround have hinged on Keith Hornsby and Craig Victor playing. While Victor still needs another game to get back, Hornsby made an emphatic return, scoring 32 points on 6-for-10 three-point shooting, including the fantastic shot at the end of regulation to force overtime.

That said, LSU's defense continues to be a tire fire. This season they have played five teams in the Pomeroy Top 200 (Houston, North Florida, Charleston, North Carolina State, and Marquette) and allowed a total of 1.12 PPP against them. Houston dominated the glass here, and had a 50-to-42 advantage in paint points.

In March, these non-conference games won't matter nearly as much as what LSU will have done in conference play, so if the return of Hornsby and Victor turns things around then LSU will still be in okay shape. But unless they beat Oklahoma, LSU will likely need to finish at least 11-7 in SEC play just to have a Top 75 RPI. In other words, the margin for error has already shrunk. Their horrible non-conference SOS is not going to help either.

Speaking of horrible non-conference SOS, Houston's schedule is awful. They played Marquette, LSU, and then a bunch of teams with no chance to finish inside the RPI Top 100. For the time being, Pomeroy ranks their non-conference SOS the second weakest in the entire nation. Not that this team was likely going to be good enough to earn an at-large bid anyway, but the Selection Committee would severely frown on this schedule if they were.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Morning News: Texas Stuns UNC At The Buzzer, UCLA Upsets Gonzaga, Wichita St Is Back, And More

Get to know the Mocs.
New Bracket Projection Despite not winning a game this week, Florida impressed in their loss to Michigan State and move into the projected Field of 68, replacing Ohio State. Wagner also enters as the new NEC favorite, replacing Robert Morris.

Texas Stuns North Carolina At The Buzzer There's no question that this Texas team has Top 25 talent. The problem is that it doesn't fit with Shake Smart's style, and so they continue to try to full court press even though it doesn't really work. Certainly Texas is forcing more turnovers this year (up to 61st in the nation in turnover rate), but they're still not forcing a lot of steals, getting easy fastbreak points, or picking up the tempo. They just don't have the personnel for it. And so they forced just 6 turnovers here, but they dominated the glass (as they often did last season), finishing with a massive 16-to-4 advantage in offensive rebounds. What carried them, however, was jump shooting. They were a white hot 12-for-24 on threes, and won on a controversial (but probably correct) call on a buzzer beater. Check it out:
Texas's awkward mix of styles is what is going to keep them from contending in the Big 12, but that talent is going to allow them to knock off quite a few more Top 25 teams before this season is out, I'd bet. The question is going to be whether they have the consistency to win enough games in what is going to be a really strong and deep Big 12.

For the Tar Heels, this game is a reminder that the return of Marcus Paige does not solve all ills. That said, they really played pretty well here. The Vegas spread was 6.5 points and Texas shot the lights out on threes - you'd expect this game to come down to the wire if the Longhorns shoot like that. If it had been the Tar Heels shooting 50% on threes, they'd have won easily. So there's no need to reevaluate our expectations of the Tar Heels downwards after this loss. They are still in the mix (along with Duke and Virginia and potentially others) for the ACC title.

UCLA Upsets Gonzaga There are some basketball games where you're just kind of confused by the result, and this was one of those. It felt kind of like Gonzaga was down by a point or two for the entire second half, and that they were inevitably going to hit the big shot to deliver the win, but it just never happened. Defensively, Gonzaga really missed their big man Przemek Karnowski, who continues to be out indefinitely with an injury. Offensively, Gonzaga just could not hit a big jump shot. They were 2-for-14 on threes in the second half (6-for-26 for the game). How do you lose a game you feel like you should have won? Go 2-for-14 on threes.

There is quite a bit of overreaction about both of these teams, so let's address them one at a time. For Gonzaga, there are questions of whether they'll miss the NCAA Tournament. Let's chill out there. Karnowski should be back before too long, and Gonzaga's three losses have all come against NCAA Tournament teams, and have all been decided in the final 30 seconds. Their resume will be soft for a team competing for a high seed, but they should still roll the WCC and end up somewhere in the 4 or 5 seed range in March.

As for UCLA, they had two bad losses early (Monmouth and Wake Forest) and have had two big wins lately (Kentucky and Gonzaga), leading to various dumb media narratives about how they decided to "get tougher" or "figure out how to win", or some other such magical nonsense. The fact that they had a 7 point win at home against a mediocre Long Beach State team just before this game gets swept away because it's inconvenient for the narrative. A team is what it is, and UCLA has been an NCAA Tournament quality team so far, but at this point I'd be skeptical that they're a Top 25 team or a Pac-12 contender. Arizona is still the heavy favorite there.

Wichita State Is Back In a turn of event that are a surprise to nobody, Wichita State looks much better with Fred VanVleet back. While their offense looks better, their defense has also improved significantly with his return. Neither Saint Louis, UNLV, or Utah have cracked 0.9 PPP, and Wichita State has forced turnovers on more than 30% of possessions over those three games. And of course, the Shockers aren't even at full strength yet. Anton Grady, expected to be a key starter this season, is still working his way back from that scary injury against Alabama.

This was a game Wichita State absolutely had to had. It was potentially their last chance for an RPI Top 50 victory befere Selection Sunday, though they'll hope that some other teams on their schedule (Northern Iowa, for example) can get into the Top 50 as well. The games that they lost without Fred VanVleet will still count, but the Shockers now have plenty of time to dominate Missouri Valley plan and firm up that at-large bid.

Utah has no bad losses, but they have no wins yet against the Pomeroy Top 50 either. Interestingly, it has been defense that has let them down so far, despite Jakob Poeltl still locking the paint down. The loss of Delon Wright is obviously a huge factor, but this Utes defense really should be better than it has been. Last season, just 4 of 15 non-conference opponents cracked 1 PPP, and this season it's 7 of 9.

Xavier Eases Past Cincinnati This game was not a rout, but Xavier was never in too much trouble either.  They led by 16 points at halftime and then maintained a double-digit lead for nearly the entire second half. Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent (at best) in recent years while Xavier's defense has been dominant this season, holding opponents to 0.89 PPP overall. Cincy also scored 0.89 PPP here.

The story coming out of this game is not a Cincinnati team that has played really well and will be in a tight battle with UConn for the AAC title. The story is how good this Xavier team has been. They are now 10-0 with four wins over the Pomeroy Top 50. They're still probably not the Big East favorite (that would be Villanova), but I don't know how it's possible to not consider them a serious Final Four threat. They are good across the board: offensively, defensively, and on the glass. Sleep on them at your own peril.

Chattanooga Knocks Off Dayton Dayton was coming off a very impressive comeback win at Vanderbilt, but this Chattanooga team is no cupcake. They've already beaten Georgia and Illinois, and this win pushes them up to 93rd in Pomeroy and 70th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Realistically, an at-large bid is not possible out of the SoCon, but Chattanooga looks like the type of 13 seed or so that could be a scary Round of 64 opponent in March.

This was a frustrating game for Dayton fans. They gave it away with 23% three-point shooting and 54% free throw shooting. But despite being a "bad" loss, Dayton is still ahead of the curve in non-conference play with those wins over Vanderbilt and Iowa. Even if Dyshawn Pierre does not return (his suspension remains in legal limbo), Dayton looks like an at-large team and a potential Atlantic Ten favorite.

Marquette Upsets Wisconsin The shooting woes for Wisconsin continued here. They had a brutal 40.9 eFG%, and hit the same number of shots from the field (24) as Marquette despite attempting 20 more shots. There are multiple reasons for that. For one, it was just an ugly shooting day - they're not going to win many games when Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig are a combined 7-for-29 from the field. At the same time, their shot selection has been poor all season. Last season, just 25% of their shot attempts were mid-range jumpers, and they hit them at a 43% clip. This season, 36% of their shot attempts have been mid-range jumpers, and they've hit them at only a 32% clip. They've basically become Iowa but without the good shooters.

The panic over Wisconsin is a little overblown. They have three "bad" losses, but the three have been by a combined 5 points. Also, college basketball (unlike college football) weighs big wins more than bad losses. Wisconsin has already beaten Syracuse and VCU, so if they go 11-7 in Big Ten play then these non-conference losses won't matter. That said, the reason my bracket projection still features Wisconsin is because I think they're going to improve. Right now they are only playing like a bubble team.

For Marquette, the story was star freshman (and potential one-and-done guy) Henry Ellenson, who poured in 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists. Marquette is on a 7 game winning streak after an ugly start to their season primarily because their defense has locked down. They haven't allowed a single opponent to crack 1 PPP or have an eFG% over 43% during this 7 game winning streak. How real is this defensive improvement? Wisconsin is the only likely RPI Top 50 opponent in the streak, so there are reasons to be skeptical, but it's something to keep an eye on if Marquette is going to make a run at an at-large bid this season.

Boise State Tops Oregon Boise State actually led much of this game by double-digits, and Oregon finished this game on a 22-7 run, yet still came up short. Boise State committed turnovers on their final three possessions, but with a chance to tie up the game on the final possession Oregon just took way too long to get into their offense, and ended up only with a heavily contested layup by Dillon Brooks. Oregon fans will want the foul there, and the announcers whined about it, but to me that looked like a good no-call. Next time, Oregon should try starting their offense before there are five seconds left in the game. Judge the final play yourself below:

Oregon was without Tyler Dorsey again, though that's not going to be a factor on Selection Sunday. They do have their wins over Baylor and Valparaiso, so this is still a successful non-conference performance thus far. Boise State is still trying to make up for that season-opening loss to Montana. They don't have another bad loss, but this win only gets them to 7-4. Considering the fact that the Mountain West is down this season, it's going to be tough for Boise State to earn an at-large bid without a gaudy won-loss record.

UConn Routs Ohio State UConn took the lead up to 21 points in the first half here, and the game never really had any intensity after that. This game was all about jump shooting, as the Buckeyes shot an ugly 27% on jump shots compared to 50% for UConn. The 40.2 eFG% was Ohio State's worst shooting day since last season (March 8th, 2015). UConn put six players in double-figures, though the star was Omar Calhoun, who was 4-for-4 behind the arc.

Ohio State is in a lot of ways in the same situation as Wisconsin, though they're digging out of a deeper hole. The Buckeyes also have three "bad" losses, but they have no wins over teams that will finish in the RPI Top 100. That said, it's too early to give up on this Ohio State team. Not only do they have some very talented young players who are raw and likely to improve (JaQuan Lyle the most obvious of the bunch), but they've also had some bad luck on the court, such as their 76.6 FT% defense and their 0-3 record in games decided by six points or fewer. They've played better than their (admittedly bad) resume.

UConn needed a nice result after losing three of four games, and this will certainly qualify. That said, there should never have been much concern about losing three close games to quality opponents. The Huskies still look like they will be in a tight battle for the AAC title, with the chance for a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can win it.

W-13 BP68

Trying to judge the strength of the tourney bubble this far out is fairly pointless, but it is worth noting that a bunch of the teams projected to finish in the vicinity of the bubble had nice performances this week.

At the end of the season, non-conference wins and losses will not matter too much, so we have to use these November and December games to judge the teams themselves as much as we judge their raw wins and losses. So for example, Florida has had very impressive computer numbers (Top 25 in both Pomeroy and Sagarin) despite losing their two games against quality opponents. They lost on Saturday in their third game against a quality opponent, but it was on the road at Michigan State and they pushed the game down to the final possession. Even though that won't show up as a win on Selection Sunday, it was impressive evidence that Florida's high computer numbers are legitimate. And so for that reason, Florida slid into the projected Field of 68 this week despite not actually winning a game all week.

Dropping out to make room for Florida is Ohio State. They had not been playing like a tourney team all season, but with so much young talent it's easy to project improved play later this season. That said, they have dug themselves quite the hole, and even if we assume some reasonable improvement by March, it's awfully hard to project them as a tourney team for now.

One other change in the Field of 68 is the NEC favorite, where Wagner replaces Robert Morris.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday 2016:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Virginia
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Oklahoma

3. Duke
3. Purdue
3. Xavier
3. Iowa State

4. Maryland
4. UCONN (AAC)
4. Baylor
4. GONZAGA (WCC)

5. Cincinnati
5. Miami-Florida
5. Louisville
5. Vanderbilt

6. West Virginia
6. Butler
6. Texas A&M
6. UCLA

7. Oregon
7. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Iowa
7. Georgetown

8. Utah
8. Dayton
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
8. Texas

9. Pittsburgh
9. Indiana
9. Notre Dame
9. Providence

10. Michigan
10. Wisconsin
10. Florida State
10. Syracuse

11. South Carolina
11. California
11. George Washington
11. Florida
11. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

12. UNLV
12. LSU
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)

14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UT-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
14. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
14. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Tulsa, NC State, Rhode Island, VCU, Marquette, Ohio State, Northern Iowa, Boise State, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon State, USC

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Temple, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Creighton, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Evansville, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, BYU, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Houston, Virginia Tech, Fordham, UMass, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, TCU, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Northeastern, Old Dominion, Yale, Kent State, Loyola-Chicago, Fresno State, Stanford, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State

Friday, December 11, 2015

Morning News: Breaking Down Iowa State's Win Over Iowa


Iowa State Wins A Thriller Unfortunately for Iowa fans, there were no other particularly interesting games last night, which means that I'm going to go deep into a game that was a real heartbreaker for them. But I'll give you guys a *SPOILER ALERT*, which is that I have a nice silver lining for Iowa at the end of this.

First of all, as I've said about a billion times with Iowa, they are so dependent on jump shooting. When those jump shots go in they look great, but when those jump shots don't go in they look exceedingly mediocre. So what happened here? Iowa hit 50% of their jump shots in the first half but only 28% in the second half (38% total). Defense has an impact on jump shooting percentages, but not much - Iowa hit plenty of contested jumpers in the first half and missed plenty of wide open jumpers in the second half. At one point, Iowa missed 14 of 17 shots. If they just hit one more, they'd have won.

That said, Iowa State was simply a better team in the second half. They had 10 offensive rebounds vs only 1 turnover in the second half, leading to five more field goal attempts and five more free throw attempts than Iowa. It's easy to outscore a team when you get to throw the ball at the rim ten extra times. Iowa's offense down the stretch was also awful. They went into the Prevent Offense on several possessions, which always ended up with Mike Gesell taking an ill-advised shot. Jarrod Uthoff had 30 points in the first half but then took only two shots in the final eight minutes of the game.

Iowa State fans were constantly mad about the lack of foul calls in this game, but the fact is that Iowa State hasn't been drawing fouls all season long. They have a FTRate of 21.5%, which is 348th in the nation. Considering that Iowa actually takes an above-average fraction of their shots at the rim and plays at a fast tempo, you would think they would be above-average at getting to the free throw line, which they generally were under Fred Hoiberg. You have to wonder if part of it is a fear of contact for a team hitting just 63.5% at the line.

Despite Iowa State coming into this game ranked #4 in the nation with Iowa only drawing a handful of Top 25 votes, the computers all had these as two very even teams. And coming out of this game, I'm not sure how you can disagree with that. In fact, Iowa moved a little bit closer to Iowa State in the computers, now up to 14th in Pomeroy (compared to 13th for Iowa State) and up to 16th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR (compared to 14th for Iowa State). It's early, and things change, but I think Iowa fans have to come out of this game feeling a little silver lining from the fact that they provided yet more evidence that they one of the 25 best teams in the nation.

As a side note, an Iowa State beat reporter broke a bone during the court storming after the game (he wasn't trampled as he was to the side of the arena, but one person walked past him and they locked legs and tripped). As expected, the media is up in arms about one of its favorite topics: banning court storming. I wrote a long piece about this not long ago, so you can read it here. The fact is that humans are absolutely terrible at judging risk. We're all scared of plane crashes and don't think twice about driving cars, even though cars are much more dangerous. We are scared to death of terrorism but don't think twice about drinking alcohol, even though alcohol is thousands of times more likely to kill us than terrorism.

Rushing a court is one of the safest things students can do. Many, many more will suffer serious injury on their way to and from the stadium than rushing the court. If you are really serious about taking away dangerous activities, banning foods containing peanuts from the concession stands will prevent far more serious health problems than banning court stormings. Taking away a really fun activity that has a microscopic risk to health is a perfect example of an irrational policy directed at a very visible activity with a sexy media narrative, as opposed to a rational policy directed at a real problem.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Morning News: Dayton Knocks Off Vanderbilt, Fred VanVleet Returns In Style, Wisconsin Falls To Milwaukee, And More

Welcome back.
Dayton Knocks Off Vanderbilt Dayton was actually down by 16 points in this game, which makes this win even more impressive. Vanderbilt was without Luke Kornet (and will be for at least a month longer), but that will be long forgotten by March. Even without Kornet, Vanderbilt has a big front line, but Dayton crushed them in the paint, finishing with a 15-to-7 advantage in offensive rebounds and a 40-to-22 advantage in paint points. Kendall Pollard (21 points, including the dagger three-pointer with 46 seconds left) was the star.

Vanderbilt is now 0-3 against likely RPI Top 50 opponents, though they will have lost those three games by an average of 4.7 points. Bad luck in close games is why Vanderbilt is going to drop out of the Top 25 polls next week, but there's no doubt that Vanderbilt has played like one of the 25 best teams in the nation so far this season.

Dayton is looking increasingly like the Atlantic Ten favorite. They now have a second big win (they also beat Iowa), strengthening their at-large resume should they fall short in the A-10 tourney. Their schedule eases up the next few weeks, though back-to-back games against Davidson and George Washington in mid-January will go along way toward determining whether they win the A-10 or not.

Fred VanVleet Returns In Style Yes, this is technically VanVleet's second game back from injury, but in the first game he only played 18 minutes against a bad Saint Louis team. This was his first game back looking like himself, against a good UNLV team. VanVleet played 33 minutes, scoring 17 points with 4 assists, though those assists don't give enough credit to how much of the offense starts with him, often out of the pick-and-roll. Combine that with a strong defensive performance (the Shockers forced 19 turnovers and held UNLV to 0.81 PPP), and Wichita State now has their first quality win of the season.

Fred VanVleet has gotten healthy in time for Wichita State to salvage something out of non-conference play. They have this win, and then have Utah and Seton Hall up next. It's not much, and a lot of damage has already been done to their resume, but they still can firm up their at-large bona fides. This still feels like a team that is going to end up with a 7 or 8 seed in March, which is really going to piss off whichever 1 or 2 seed gets drawn against them in the Round of 32.

UNLV drops to 7-2, though they have wins over Oregon and Indiana and have no bad losses. They have to navigate a deceptively tricky road game at UC-Riverside on Saturday, but if they can win that and lose only that road game at Arizona before Mountain West play starts, they'll be in good shape for an at-large bid, despite the general weakness of the Mountain West Conference thus far.

Wisconsin Falls To Milwaukee This was an ugly game all around. Quick whistles meant 48 fouls and 59 free throw attempts. Both teams made more free throws than field goals, though Milwaukee hit much more of them down the stretch. They hit 82% as a team, including their final 12 of the game. Wisconsin hit 72% as a team, which is fairly good, but Nigel Hayes missed a pair of crucial free throws with his team trailing by just two points in the final 30 seconds.

Poor shooting has been the consistent story for Wisconsin all around this season. They shot a horrific 5-for-27 on two-point jumpers here. For the season, Wisconsin is hitting just 45% of their two-point attempts, 34% of their two-point jumpers, and 32% of their threes (all well outside the Top 200 in the nation). How real is that bad shooting? Some of it has to be. Wisconsin has a lot of young players who simply aren't the type of shooters they're replacing from last season. That said, some of this is likely to regress. For example, Nigel Hayes is down from 40% on threes last year to 31% this year. And if Wisconsin can get even halfway decent jump shooting, they are a supremely talented team in many other ways. In fact, weirdly enough, this is one of those talented teams Bo Ryan has ever had.

Milwaukee has quietly been a solid team this season. They near won at Notre Dame a couple of weeks ago also. Valparaiso is obviously the favorite in the Horizon League, but Milwaukee looks like their strongest possible challenger.

Ben Bentil Injured At this point, the severity of the injury is unknown, but it looked live like it was an ankle injury. We knew that Kris Dunn was going to be Kris Dunn, but Bentil has been the emergent star for Providence this season, and been a primary reason for their success thus far. If he is hurt for more than a couple of weeks, they open up Big East play with a tough game at Butler on New Year's Eve. The analytics say that Providence has been lucky in close games so far and is overrated. Without Bentil, they're a bubble-quality team at best.