Saturday, February 28, 2009

Georgetown Stays Alive

Georgetown 56, #12 Villanova 54
I spoke a few days ago how this game against Villanova was an absolute must-win for Georgetown. A loss here would have completely eliminated them from Tournament contention. But as dire it seems to be one loss away from elimination before February ends, Georgetown's route to a Tournament bid actually isn't as bad as you might think. They are 6-10 in the Big East, and absolutely must get to 8-10 to have a shot at an at-large bid, but their final two games are at St. John's, and at home against DePaul. The DePaul win will be automatic, and they should be solid favorites against St. John's. As I mentioned before, it will be impossible for Georgetown (or any other team seeded 9th or worse) to win the Big East tournament. But if Georgetown can get to 8-10, which they should, then they don't have to win the Big East tournament. They'll have to win that first round Big East game, and then they'll get one of the better Big East teams in the second round. A win there and Georgetown will have an excellent claim at a Tournament bid. If they can win another game to make it to the semifinals then Georgetown will actually be a likely Tournament team. But they can't get too far ahead of themselves. They've got to take care of St. John's and DePaul first. As for Villanova, this was a disappointing offensive performance for them. Their defense is good, and they a solid rebounding team, but they sometimes struggle to score efficiently. This loss pretty much locks them into the fifth seed in the Big East tournament, which means that they'll only get the single bye, and not a double bye. In fact, if the season ended now they'd be on pace for a desperate Georgetown team in the second round. Their path to the Big East tournament title will certainly be a lot tougher than it would have been if they could have gotten to fourth place.

#2 UConn 72, Notre Dame 65
Staying in the big East, Jeff Adrien led the way as UConn closes in on a possible Big East title. Hasheem Thabeet had eight blocks (not to mention about eight more that were re-directed and missed in a desperate attempt to avoid a Thabeet rejection), but it is always Adrien that leads this team when they need him most. UConn now moves to 15-2, and gets a full week to prepare for a road game at Pitt. I don't think they'll win that game, but a win would clinch a share of the Big East title. A loss and the title probably goes to Louisville. UConn actually doesn't need to win next Saturday to get a 1 seed. They can lose to Pitt, and they'll probably still get a 1 seed if they can get to the Big East tournament finals. As for Notre Dame, this has to be a disheartening loss because they played so well. Kyle McAlarney was playing well, as was Ryan Ayers. They also got a bit of a breakout performance off the bench by Tyrone Nash (even if it doesn't show up in the boxscore), who looks like he'll be one of the leading players on next year's team. But even with all of that, they still lost, and they're now 7-9 in the Big East. With the weak overall resume (4-11 against the RPI Top 100, for example), I don't see any way Notre Dame earns an at-large unless they win their final two regular season games (home games against Villanova and St. John's). If they can get to 9-9 then they'll need at least one win in the Big East tournament. Notre Dame is playing like a Tournament team right now, but they mght have just dug themselves too big of a hole to climb completely out of.

#21 Washington 83, Arizona 78
Washington is clearly smelling hardware as they lock up at least a share of the Pac-10 regular season title with the win here. Jon Brockman was the star here, managing to go blow-for-blow with Jordan Hill for the whole game. Arizona can't beat anybody unless Hill is dominating on the inside, and Arizona's guards and small forwards just were no match for Washington's guards and small forwards. Washington will lock up the outright crown if they can take care of business next Sunday at home against Washington State. If the Huskies can somehow add the Pac-10 tournament title to the regular season title then they will get no lower than a 3 seed in the Tournament. They'll even have an excellent argument for a 2 seed. With the loss, Arizona slips to 8-8 in the Pac-10, and still has some work left to earn a Tournament bid. They are only 9-10 against the RPI Top 100, but they do have several very nice wins (UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga and Kansas). The RPI is only 49th, but Sagarin has them 40th and they're probably in the Tournament if the season ended now. They end with two home games (California and Stanford), and I think Arizona more than likely makes the Tournament if they split those two games and win at least one Pac-10 tournament game. But things would really be much simpler if they win both remaining regular season games, because if the bubble gets messy it might be hard to argue for a 9-9 team out of what is only the fifth best conference in the nation.

Michigan Back On The Bubble

Michigan 87, #16 Purdue 78
For a while there it did seem like Michigan's big early season wins were truly flukes for a team destined for mediocrity. They just didn't seem consistent enough to win a majority of their games in a wildly underrated Big Ten. But three wins in their last four games have them all the way back to 8-8, and firmly in the bubble discussion. We know the way that Michigan plays, which is streaky shooting, and they were hot in this one. They shot 63% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. They even overcame one of the best Robbie Hummel performances of the season. That said, they still have quite a bit of work left to do. They are only 11-11 against the RPI Top 200, and that's not good enough for a Tournament bid. Their RPI is 46th and their Sagarin is 42nd, but those numbers are inflated by the early wins, and the Selection Committee weights later games more than earlier games. They also have a very tough end to the season, with road games at Wisconsin and Minnesota. They've got to win at least one of those games, because it's very hard to see an 8-10 Michigan team earning an at-large bid. As for Purdue, they just ran into a buzz saw. They still have an outside shot at a share of the Big Ten title, but at this point their top priority has to be just getting healthy for their Tournament run.

#20 Illinois 52, Minnesota 41
Bruce Weber has been giving the Big Ten a bad reputation with all of his low scoring games, but his teams sure are very tough to beat. They play tough defense, and they do a good job of working the ball throughout the shot clock on offense. They haven't scored more than 70 points in a game since January 10th, but they're now 11-5 in Big Ten play with an RPI that is up to 13th. In fact, if they can beat Michigan State at home tomorrow afternoon they'll have a real shot at a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Minnesota, on the other hand, has now lost five of their last seven games to fall nearly out of the Tournament altogether. They're 8-8 in the Big Ten, but only 6-8 against the RPI Top 100. The computer numbers all have them right around 40th in the nation, and they're probably barely in the Tournament if the season ended now. They end with two home games, against Wisconsin and Michigan. They've got to win at least one of those or they're going to need a heck of a run in the Big Ten tournament.

#21 Washington 73, #11 Arizona State 70, OT
It was a tight battle all the way, but in the end it was Washington grabbing sole possession of first place in the Pac-10. I still don't believe that Washington is as good of a team as their numbers suggest they are, but those numbers do look pretty good right now. They're 12-4 in the Pac-10, and the RPI is up to 14th. If they can find a way to sweep both the Pac-10 regular season and tournament titles then I think the ceiling for Washington is actually a 2 seed. Arizona State, meanwhile, is still looking pretty good even with this loss. They probably blew their chance at a share of the Pac-10 title, but they're still pretty safe for the Tournament. Their remaining schedule is pretty easy, so they should have a nice seed heading into the Pac-10 tournament. At this point, the only way Arizona State does better than a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament is if they win the Pac-10 tournament, so that Pac-10 seeding will be important.

Virginia Tech Makes Their Case

Virginia Tech 80, #13 Clemson 77
Virginia Tech already had enough quality victories for a Tournament bid, and the question is just total victories. Can they get enough ACC wins, and can they get their computer numbers high enough? This win pushes them to 7-6, and they've just got to get to 8-8 to have a real shot at an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament. They have had a tendency over the last few years to pull off big upsets, and they can certainly use one, either against UNC next week or in the ACC tournament (where they will have a high probability for an elite opponent in their quarterfinal game). As for Clemson, don't be deceived by that number in front of their name. They aren't struggling nearly as badly as they did to close the 2006-07 season, but this is still getting a bit worrisome. I'll talk more about this when I get to their loss to Florida State, but the reality is that Clemson still hasn't locked a spot in the Tournament. They've got to get one more win, and while they should get it on Tuesday night against Virginia, nothing is certain.

#7 Duke 78, Maryland 67
Duke is starting to get their act together as we close the month of February. They are playing far better defense, and they are more athletic and explosive on the offensive end. They are still firmly in the 1 seed discussion, if they can find a way to win at Chapel Hill next weekend. Of course, Duke did benefit here from the fact that Maryland is probably the only team in the ACC that is smaller than Duke. At least Duke has a legitimate big man that they can throw out there (Brian Zoubek) from time to time. Even Lance Thomas is bigger than any Maryland regulars. Duke actually outrebounded the Terps 37-25. I didn't view this as a must-win for Maryland, but they have now reduced their margin of error to near zero. They are 6-7 in the ACC, and will not earn at-large bid unless they get to at least 8-8. They play Wake Forest at home, and NC State and Virginia on the road. If they can get to 8-8 then I think that one ACC tournament win will be enough to get them into the Dance.

Cincinnati 65, West Virginia 61
Cincinnati is a young team that has had a lot of ups and a lot of downs this season, but this win assures that they're still firmly in the bubble discussion as we enter March. Yancy Gates showed why he might be a Big East Player of the Year if he sticks around long enough as he led the way with 22 points and 11 rebounds. This was such an important win for Cincinnati that you wonder if their fans even really cared about sticking it to ex-coach Bob Huggins. Cincinnati is now 8-7 in the Big East with a decent 7-10 record against the RPI Top 100. They now have wins over UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown (twice) and Notre Dame. They have no bad losses. They have an RPI of 54th, a Sagarin of 47th and a Pomeroy of 57th. In other words, they're probably not in the Tournament if the season ends now, but they're very, very close. I think they've got to get to 10-8, because a 9-9 Cincy team will need at least a couple of wins in the Big East tournament to earn a bid. While West Virginia is also 8-7 in the Big East after this loss, their overall resume is still far better than that of Cincinnati. They are 9-9 against the RPI Top 100, and their 19-9 overall record comes against one of the ten toughest schedules in the nation (according to the RPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy). If they can get to 10 wins then they'll lock up a Tournament bid, but even a 9-9 West Virginia team will most likely be Tournament bound.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Devastating Blow For Marquette

#2 UConn 93, #10 Marquette 82
Jim Calhoun became the seventh basketball coach in D-I history to collect his 800th victory, but the story of this game was the loss of Marquette's Dominic James with a broken foot. For a team that is so thin and so dependent on its senior trio (James, Wes Matthews and Jerel McNeal), this loss really could destroy their chances at a long Tournament run. Even though James had somewhat plateaued as a pure talent, and has probably been surpassed by Matthews and McNeal in terms of overall ability, it always seemed like James was the leader of the team. Everybody responded to him on the floor, and only time will tell how this team will play now. As for UConn, this win bumped them up into a 1 seed in the newest BP65. Of course, I still have questions about this victory, since Marquette's loss of James is more important than UConn's loss of Jerome Dyson. But a quality win is a quality win, and UConn picks up a big time road victory here.

Rhode Island 93, Dayton 91, OT

This was an essential victory for Rhode Island's chances at a Tournament bid. They really needed another quality victory, and this represents their second (they beat Temple back in January). They are now 21-8, but have done it against a very weak schedule. Also, they're still only fourth in the pecking order of a conference that clearly does not deserve four teams. If Rhode Island is going to make the Tournament, I think they're going to have to pull ahead of either Temple or Dayton. Speaking of Dayton, their Tournament resume is not as much of a slam dunk as it was a couple of weeks ago. They are still 23-5 with a 7-2 record against the RPI Top 100, but they also have lost three of their last five games in the A-10. They've also got a number of bad losses (Saint Louis, Charlotte and UMass) that more or less balance out those good wins (Marquette, Xavier). I still think Dayton is going to make the Tournament, but they've got to win at least three more games (including the conference tournament). Because of their tough remaining schedule they can get away with only two more regular season wins, but only if they take care of business in their first A-10 tournament game.

South Carolina 77, Kentucky 59
While LSU has started getting the national attention that they deserve, South Carolina is still unknown to most casual fans even as they close in on what would only be their second Tournament bid since 1998. Darrin Horn has really proven to be one of the best young coaches in the NCAA, and South Carolina has to wonder how long he's going to stick around. How long until a real big time basketball school offers him big money to leave? But for the time being, South Carolina is actually leading the SEC East all by themselves at 9-4, a full game ahead of Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee. I had them as a Tournament team way back in April, yet even I'm surprised at how good they've played. Devan Downey is just an electric star, and he will become a household name if South Carolina can win a Tournament game or two. Meanwhile, Kentucky is in serious danger of missing the Tournament for the first time since Rick Pitino was cleaning up a scandal-plagued program in 1991. They are 8-5 in the SEC and 11-9 against the RPI Top 200. They have wins over West Virginia, Tennessee and Florida, but they also have losses to VMI, Vanderbilt and both Mississippi teams. The RPI is 63rd, but Sagarin has them 44th and Pomeroy has them 33rd. They're the epitome of a bubble team. Kentucky has a huge home game on Saturday afternoon against LSU. If they fall there then it's going to be an uphill battle to a Tournament bid for the Wildcats.

Boston College Closes In On A Bid

Boston College 72, #25 Florida State 67
All season long Boston College has gone as Tyrese Rice has gone, and he led them to an absolutely essential victory here. This marks their 20th victory of the season, and they are now 8-6 in the ACC and 9-7 against the RPI Top 100 (although that doesn't take into account their two bad losses outside the RPI Top 100). They have those huge victories over Duke and UNC, but this is probably their next best win. They also have quality wins over UAB, Providence, Maryland and Virginia Tech. The computer numbers still aren't really good enough for a Tournament bid (they are suffering from a weak out of conference schedule, which Pomeroy ranks 271st), but they're getting closer. This was a key win because they end with two fairly easy games (at NC State, vs Georgia Tech). So while they might not be in the Tournament if the season ended now, they'll be a near-lock if they can close out those two games to end up 10-6 in the ACC. Florida State has not yet completely locked up their Tournament bid, but they'd have to completely collapse to lose out. The question is whether they can finish strong and earn a high Tournament seed.

#18 LSU 81, Florida 75
LSU is finally getting the national attention that they deserve, although I'm thinking that they might suddenly become overrated. The fact is that no casual fans are watching the SEC this season unless they root for SEC teams, so nobody is watching any of these teams. All they can do is look at the records, and boy does LSU have a nice record: 12-1 in the SEC and 8-3 against the RPI Top 100. But that said, people need to remember that they're playing the SEC West. Their only decent out of conference win came against Washington State (their next best win came over Troy). LSU is very long and athletic, but they're also impatient. They will lose in the NCAA Tournament to the first team that has the wherewithal to patiently work the shot clock and then rush back on defense. But if they're playing impatient teams (like this game against Florida) they do look quite a bit like that Final Four team from 2006 (in style, not in overall talent). As for Florida, I think I've finally put a finger on why they seem to be underperforming. There is no question that Nick Calathes is the star and center of the team, and everybody else responds to him. But he's just not good enough to be the star of an elite team. He'd be a great sidekick for a team with an explosive point guard or dominant big man. But he's the star of Florida, and that's why they still have work left to do to even make the Tournament.

BYU 69, San Diego State 59
The Mountain West won't get any attention from anybody until casual fans start looking at their brackets in a few weeks, but this was an important battle for Tournament positioning. The Mountain West is a real dog fight, with five teams firmly in the bubble discussion and none of them having locked up their Tournament bid yet. BYU is probably in the second best position, especially after this big road victory. They're now tied for second in the conference with a 9-4 record. They have an RPI of 22nd, and the best Sagarin PREDICTOR in the conference (13th). They are only 1-5 against the RPI Top 50, but they're 19-1 against everybody else. You can easily earn an at-large out of a mid-major conference if you can avoid bad losses, and BYU has none. Things are a little more difficult for San Diego State, which falls to 8-5 in conference play and 4-8 against the RPI Top 100. They have a mildly bad loss against Wyoming, and still don't have a defining victory. The computer numbers are rapidly fading, and the Aztecs are going to have to finish very well to make the Tournament.

W-2.5 BP65

The next BP65 comes out after Saturday night's games:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. UConn

2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Louisville
2. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
2. Duke

3. Villanova
3. Kansas
3. Missouri
3. Clemson

4. Wake Forest
4. Florida State
4. UCLA (PAC-10)
4. LSU (SEC)

5. Arizona State
5. Marquette
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. West Virginia

6. Purdue
6. Washington
6. Illinois
6. UTAH (MWC)

7. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Texas
7. South Carolina
7. California

8. Syracuse
8. Tennessee
8. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State

9. Boston College
9. Dayton
9. Florida
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)

10. Arizona
10. Kentucky
10. BYU
10. Minnesota

11. SIENA (MAAC)
11. UTAH STATE (WAC)
11. UNLV
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

12. Maryland
12. Oklahoma State
12. Temple
12. Miami (Fl)

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)

14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
15. CORNELL (IVY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. RADFORD (BIG SOUTH)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Providence, UAB, San Diego State, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Cincinnati, Michigan, Penn State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, New Mexico, USC

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Baylor, Nebraska, George Mason, Northeastern, Houston, Tulsa, Niagara, Illinois State, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Hofstra, UTEP, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Buffalo, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Stanford, Washington State, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Portland, Boise State

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Kansas Beats Griffin-less Sooners

#15 Kansas 87, #3 Oklahoma 78
This game was actually unsatisfying in a lot of ways, because it could have been such an epic.
As it was, it was a very exciting game. But for Kansas, they still don't know whether they could beat an Oklahoma team with Blake Griffin. And for Oklahoma fans, they just kind of have to ignore these games. They'll probably still be a 1 seed, and they're going to be a legitimate National Title threat assuming Griffin is back to 100%, so it's all about getting him healthy at this point. The thing with head injuries is that you never know how long they take to heal. Kanas, meanwhile, ends with games against Missouri, at Texas Tech, and at home against Texas. They're currently one game ahead of both Oklahoma and Missouri, so they'll get their shot to earn their Big 12 regular season title. They actually still have a possible shot at a 1 seed if they can win out.

#6 Louisville 76, Georgetown 58
Louisville is clearly back on a roll, and they've got an excellent shot at a share of the Big East title. They are tied for first place with UConn. Pittsburgh and Marquette are a game back, and Louisville gets a chance to bury Marquette at home on Sunday. Speaking of burying teams, Louisville might have sealed Georgetown's NIT fate with this solid victory here. Georgetown is now 5-10 in the Big East with a terrible 14-12 overall record. Their only chance at an at-large bid rides on winning their final three regular season games and then going on a little run in the Big East tournament. They head to Villanova on Saturday night, and a loss there will end any chances they have at the Tournament. With the horrible way that the Big East has set up their conference tournament, it's absolutely impossible for any team with a seed of nine or worse to win it. No team can win five games in five days against this year's Big East, it's just not going to happen.

Providence 81, #1 Pittsburgh 73
Another week, another top ranked team goes down. This one was about foul trouble, as Providence got DeJuan Blair to foul out, and got two other players to four fouls. This game was also about motivation. The reason so many #1 teams fall is because it's hard to stay motivated when there is no where else to progress to. It can feel like there's nothing to play for. Providence, on the other hand, is playing for a Tournament bid. This was unquestionably a huge victory for them, but it's premature for people to start putting them in the Tournament. They are indeed 9-7 in the Big East, but they are 5-11 against the RPI Top 100. They are rated 71st in the RPI, 65th in Sagarin and 71st in Pomeroy. That's simply not a Tournament resume right now. Unless they win at Villanova to close the season they are going to enter the Big East tournament with quite a bit of work left to do.

Sunday Recaps

#14 Villanova 89, #25 Syracuse 86
Syracuse could have pulled themselves completely off the bubble if they could have pulled off the victory here, but they just could not get over the top. I've said it before, but it's amazing that anybody could be underrated in the incredibly over-hyped Big East, but Villanova continues to be under the radar. Nobody is talking about them as a potential Final Four team, but when they turn up the defensive pressure and stay out of foul trouble (they're pretty thin on the bench) they're a very tough team for anybody to beat. Villanova now has the RPI up to 9th, and are still in the discussion for a 2 or a 3 seed. As for Syracuse, they slip to 8-7 in the Big East and 7-8 against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Kansas, Florida, Memphis and West Virginia, an RPI of 23rd, a Sagarin of 24th and a Pomeroy of 24th, so there's no doubt that they'd be in the Tournament if the season ended now. But they've still got a little bit of work left to do. They will be favored in their next two games (against Cincy and Rutgers at the Carrier Dome) before closing at Marquette. If they take care of those first two games to get to 10-8 they will almost definitely be a Tournament team. One win in the Big East tournament should lock it up. If they can somehow win their final three regular season games then they'll be in the Tournament regardless of how they play in the Big East tournament.

#9 Duke 101, #8 Wake Forest 91
This was a crazy game where Duke actually led by as many as 22 points in the first half, and then let the lead get down to two before pulling away late. Duke did a good job of finding a starting five that worked and sticking with it throughout, letting five players get more than 30 minutes. Gerald Henderson has to lead this team, but there's no question that Duke has been better since Elliot Williams has been getting extended time. There's a reason why he was such a blue chip recruit. Amazingly with all that has happened, Duke still has a shot at a 1 seed. But unless they win at North Carolina in their regular season finale, their ceiling is a 2 seed. As for Wake Forest, they're amazingly down to only 7-5 in the ACC. They still have excellent numbers all around (for example, they're 7-2 against the RPI Top 50), so they can still get a good seed. But more importantly they just have to rediscover the magic they had in January. If they play like that then they'll be a Final Four team regardless of their Tournament seed. But the way they've been playing lately they won't even make the Sweet 16.

#11 Arizona State 72, Arizona 70
This was a pretty exciting game, although that was partially due to the fact that both of these teams play really bad team defense. I emphasize the word "team", because there are a number of good individual defenders, but both teams really struggle to rotate defensively, and offensive players were constantly getting open shots on the weak side. In the end, the difference was two stretches in the game when Arizona State got hot from behind the arc (they ended up 13-for-30 overall). Arizona State remains in a de facto tie for first in the Pac-10, and get their chance to grab the lead all by themselves when they head to Washington tomorrow night. As for Arizona, it's hard to feel bad about a tough loss after a seven game winning streak. They are a solid 8-6 in the Pac-10 and 8-8 against the RPI Top 100, but they've got a tough end to the season. Arizona fans need to hope that their team didn't peak too early, because you do not want to go into Selection Sunday on a losing streak. If they can split their final four regular season games they'll be in excellent shape for an at-large bid.

Stay Tuned

Sorry for the slight gap in posting. There haven't been any new posts since Sunday, but I'll be back with multiple posts tonight. I'll be recapping some of the action from the past few days, and possibly also some of the big games from tonight. The new BP65 will be out around 1am eastern time tonight.

So stay tuned!

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Looking Ahead To The Conference Tournaments

I realized that I haven't given people the heads up that the conference tournament schedules are on ESPN here. The first conference tournament game will be played on Tuesday, March 3rd, when both the Big South, Ohio Valley and Horizon tournaments will start.

Of course, unless you are a fan of the Big South, Horizon or OVC, or you're a bracketologist, you don't really care about the early games in those conference tournaments. You want to know when games that will have bubble implications will begin. You might also be wondering when the big boy conferences play. So I did a bit of research today to put together this nice little timeline for Championship Week 2009:


Tuesday, March 3rd: First conference tournaments begin. The Big South, Ohio Valley and Horizon opening rounds take place.

Friday, March 6th: All Missouri Valley bubble teams begin play.

Saturday, March 7th: Butler will play their first game in the Horizon tournament. Siena will play their first game in the MAAC tournament. The top four teams in the CAA will begin play, which will presumably include all of their bubble teams. Davidson will play their first SoCon tournament game. Gonzaga and Saint Mary's will play their first WCC tournament games.

Sunday, March 8th: Missouri Valley title game.

Monday, March 9th: CAA, MAAC, SoCon and WCC championship games.

Tuesday, March 10th: Big East tournament begins. Horizon League title game.

Wednesday, March 11th: A-10, Big 12, C-USA, Mountain West and Pac-10 tournaments begin.

Thursday, March 12th: ACC, Big Ten and SEC tournaments begin. In addition, Utah State will be playing its first WAC tournament game.

Saturday, March 14th: A-10, Big 12, Big East, C-USA, Mountain West, Pac-10 and WAC tournament title games.

Selection Sunday, March 15th: ACC, Big Ten and SEC championship games.

W-3 BP65

Three weeks to Selection Sunday. Slightly more than a week to the first conference tournament games:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. UConn
2. Louisville
2. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
2. Duke

3. Villanova
3. Kansas
3. Clemson
3. Missouri

4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Florida State
4. UCLA (PAC-10)
4. Wake Forest

5. Arizona State
5. Marquette
5. LSU (SEC)
5. West Virginia

6. Washington
6. Purdue
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Syracuse

7. Tennessee
7. UTAH (MWC)
7. Illinois
7. Texas

8. California
8. Wisconsin
8. Florida
8. South Carolina

9. Arizona
9. Kentucky
9. Ohio State
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)

10. Boston College
10. UTAH STATE (WAC)
10. BYU
10. Dayton

11. Minnesota
11. SIENA (MAAC)
11. San Diego State
11. UNLV

12. Maryland
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. Oklahoma State
12. Saint Mary's

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
15. CORNELL (IVY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. RADFORD (BIG SOUTH)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Temple, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Michigan, Kansas State, UAB, USC

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Rhode Island, Providence, Penn State, Baylor, Texas A&M, George Mason

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Saint Joseph's, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Nebraska, Northeastern, Houston, Tulsa, Wisconsin-GB, Niagara, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Hofstra, Central Florida, UTEP, Cleveland State, Buffalo, Wyoming, Stanford, Washington State, Alabama, Portland, Boise State

Oklahoma Proves They're More Than Just Griffin

Texas 73, #2 Oklahoma 68
With Blake Griffin knocked out early on, casual fans finally see how silly it was that a lot of college basketball analysts had declared that Oklahoma would only be a bubble team if it wasn't for Griffin. The fact is that the Sooners have several outstanding players, and perhaps none benefited more from the increased attention than star freshman Willie Warren, who scored 27 points. He is probably one of the five best freshmen in the nation, and almost nobody outside the Big 12 has heard of him because the media never talks about him. So even though Texas won, Oklahoma came off looking very good. As long as Blake Griffin doesn't miss any more time, it's unlikely that Oklahoma will not get a 1 seed. Texas, meanwhile, really needed this victory to get back off the bubble. They are now 7-5 in the Big 12 with an RPI up to 35th. They are a very solid 6-4 against the RPI Top 50, and are in fairly good shape for a Tournament bid. That said, their remaining schedule is not easy, and if they only finish 9-7 then they're going to enter the Big 12 tournament without having locked up a Tournament bid yet.

Saint Mary's 75, #23 Utah State 64
Swarming defense and solid inside play led a rapidly improving Saint Mary's team to a huge victory over Utah State. They are finally figuring out how to win without Patty Mills, but the question is if the damage has already been done to their resume. They are 20-5, but still only 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, and with poor computer numbers. They face two bad opponents to end the regular season, and absolutely need to win both of those. After that they'll need a good performance in the WCC tournament. If they can get to the finals then they'll probably make the Tournament regardless of whether they win the game or not. Utah State, meanwhile, is looking weak as far as their at-large bids go. While at first glance their 24-3 record, 5-3 RPI Top 100 record and RPI of 30th seem very good, the fact is that Utah State really has not proven that they can beat good teams. They beat Utah back in December, but otherwise have zero wins over the RPI Top 80. I think they can afford one more loss, but two more losses will probably cost them an at-large bid should they fall in the WAC tournament.

Florida State 67, Virginia Tech 65
Poor Virginia Tech continues to lose tough close games. Toney Douglas was the hero for a Florida State team that has just about locked up a Tournament bid. They are 8-4 in the ACC with an 11-6 record against the RPI Top 100. They'll probably lock up a Tournament bid with one more win, but the real thing that Florida State fans are suddenly realizing is that they actually have a shot at a share of the ACC regular season title right now. They are only one loss behind first place North Carolina. I don't think they're actually going to end the season tied with North Carolina, but who would have predicted just a few weeks ago that Florida State would still have a chance at the regular season title as we head into the last week of February. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, probably only has the eighth best resume in the ACC right now, and I don't think the ACC will get eight teams. The Hokies are now 6-6 in the ACC with a 5-9 record against the RPI Top 100 and with computer numbers that have fallen out of the Top 60 across the board. Their remaining schedule is really brutal (at Clemson, Duke, UNC, at Florida State), so there will be plenty of opportunities for big wins. If they can get to 8-8 then that will mean two very good wins in their final four games and they'll have an excellent shot at an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament. But if they fall to 7-9 then it's going to be almost impossible for them to earn an at-large. If they lose all four then forget about it.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

UNC and UCLA Lose

Maryland 88, #3 UNC 85, OT
North Carolina's defense has not been that good for a while now, and Grievis Vasquez torched them for a triple-double here. It is nice to see Tyler Zeller starting to make his way back, and he should be back to his early season form by the time the Tournament comes around, but he is not going to help them with perimeter defense. North Carolina is still leading the ACC, and is still in the driver's seat for a 1 seed, but they continue to underperform. This should be the clear best team in the nation, and right now I don't think they're playing any better than Pitt or Oklahoma are. Meanwhile, Maryland really resuscitated their Tournament hopes with this win here. As I explained here, they really needed a win over UNC, Duke or Clemson in this final stretch, and now they have that big win. Maryland is now 6-6 in the ACC, and will still be firmly on the bubble if they merely get to 8-8. If they get to 9-7 then they will make the Tournament with a solid ACC tournament performance.

Washington State 82, #15 UCLA 81
This was probably the most shocking result of the day, and UCLA really is in a complete free fall. UCLA continues to play without any sense of urgency, and seems to believe that they can just turn it on late in games. And they always look impressive late in games as they attempt their desperate comebacks, which unfortunately makes them feel like they can come back the next time they fall behind. But things are serious now, as UCLA is now 9-5 with an RPI that has fallen to 35th. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, but is anything really certain with this UCLA team right now? Even with this win, Washington State is only 6-9 in the Pac-10. Their RPI is still 102nd, and it's not worth discussing their at-large chances unless they can win about five games in a row.

#7 Louisville 72, Cincinnati 63
Louisville continues to play solid basketball as they win their third straight since that embarrassing loss to Notre Dame. Louisville's remaining schedule is difficult, but not impossible, and they have an excellent shot at a share of the Big East title. They are also still in the 1 seed discussion. They are probably third in the Big East pecking order, and we obviously won't see three Big East teams getting 1 seeds no matter how many times ESPN tries to convince us that it's the best conference in the nation. So at the very least, Louisville probably needs to pass UConn to earn that 1 seed. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is now 7-7 in the Big East with an RPI and a Sagarin rating outside of the Top 50. That said, their remaining schedule is fairly easy, and Cincy will be a serious bubble team if they can finish 3-1 over their final four regular season games. A 9-9 Cincy team most likely won't make the Tournament, but it's going to be hard for the Selection Committee to turn away a team that goes 10-8 in the Big East and wins at least one Big East tournament game.

Crushing Loss For Georgetown

#11 Marquette 78, Georgetown 72
Despite being 5-8 in the Big East entering this game, Georgetown still had a very plausible path the Tournament. They had two games that they should fairly easily win (DePaul, at St. John's), and two good teams coming to visit that would make great wins (Marquette, Louisville). It seemed like a plausible path to a 9-9 Big East record, and Georgetown's computer numbers would be great even if they were only 8-10. But with this loss, the margin of error becomes incredibly thin. Georgetown would unquestionably be out of the Tournament if the season ended now, and need to go nearly undefeated the rest of the way to make the Tournament. They have to win a minimum of three of their final four regular season games or they will have no chance at an at-large bid. As for Marquette, they have now completely locked up their Tournament bid. They could lose every game the rest of the season and would still be a lock to make the Tournament (this is a real lock, unlike what passes for a "lock" at many other websites). They are in a de facto four-way tie atop the Big East with two losses. That said, their remaining schedule is incredibly brutal (UConn, at Louisville, at Pittsburgh, Syracuse). That schedule is so difficult that should Marquette sweep it they'll probably be in the driver's seat for a 1 seed. I can't see that actually happening, but Marquette definitely has an excellent shot at a 2 or a 3 seed.

Kentucky 77, Tennessee 58
I don't understand the media fascination with Jodie Meeks. He's an electric scorer, but I have been saying all year that Patrick Patterson is the most important player on the team, and if there were any questions just look at what happened in this, their first game with him back from an injury. There is something about the way that these two teams play, and I can't quite put my finger on it, but it just seems like Tennessee just cannot beat Kentucky this year. They are going to need Kentucky to get knocked out by somebody else in the SEC tournament, because it's hard to see Tennessee beating them after the way they've gotten beaten down the first two times these teams have played. Tennessee still has an RPI of 27th, but the Sagarin has slipped into the 40s, and that's a real danger zone. They have two relatively easy games, as well as two relatively difficult games (at South Carolina, at Florida) the rest of the way, and I think they need three wins in those four games to make the Tournament. Tennessee can make the Tournament if they finish 9-7 in the SEC (they're currently 7-5), but they'd need a very good SEC tournament as well as some bubble help. Kentucky is now 8-4 in the SEC, as well as a pretty solid 7-7 against the RPI Top 100. That said, their remaining schedule is pretty tough, and Kentucky needs to at least split their remaining four games to be a likely Tournament team.

Oklahoma State 84, Baylor 74
Baylor fired away with 31 three-point attempts in this one, and that just plays into Oklahoma State's hands. They are such a small team that they want you to play perimeter ball. They can't handle teams with good inside presences. Both of these teams would have been in a lot of trouble with a loss here, but Oklahoma State probably could have afforded it more than a Baylor team that now falls to 4-8 in the Big 12. They really have fallen apart, and their only chance to make the Tournament as an at-large is to win their final four regular season games. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has quietly won three straight games to move to 6-6 in conference play. The RPI is 30th, and Sagarin will have them around 40th when the numbers come out tomorrow. That said, the Cowboys have to play both Texas and Oklahoma, and the size of those two teams will be a real problem. Oklahoma State needs to go 2-2 the rest of the way to have a plausible shot at an at-large bid heading into the Big 12 tournament. Honestly, they've really got to beat one of those two aforementioned powers to go 9-7 for the season if they want to be a likely Tournament team.

Notre Dame Wins, Davidson Loses Again

Notre Dame 103, Providence 84
Notre Dame continues to make a plausible push for an at-large bid. They've still got a long way to go, but they're now a respectable 6-8 in the Big East, and 5-10 against the RPI Top 100. The RPI rating is going to move to up to around 60-65th, and Sagarin has them inside the Top 50. That big losing streak put a bad taste in the mouths of a lot of the Selection Committee, but they'll have a great Tournament shot if they can get back to 9-9. That obviously means beating Rutgers and St. John's, but they've also got to split the UConn and Villanova games. If they can do that then a solid Big East tournament performance would probably actually get them into the Tournament. Many pundits may have counted out Notre Dame as dead, but they're still in this thing. Things are actually more bleak for Providence, as they slip to 8-7 in the Big East and have always had a weak set of wins, and a weak strength of schedule. They will have to get to 10-8 in the Big East to be an at-large team, and that won't be easy with their remaining schedule.

#22 Butler 75, Davidson 63
A nice coming out game on national television for star Butler freshman Gordon Hayward (27 points, 9 rebounds). But I've seen Butler look much better than they did today, and they only won by so much because Stephen Curry was terrible. Having confidence is good, but somebody needs to tell Curry to stop taking fadeaway 27 footers when he's ice cold. Butler's defense was partially to blame for Curry's 2-for-13 shooting from behind the arc, but part of it was his own stubbornness. In this game Curry was much more valuable cutting to the hoop and either going up for the layup or kicking out to their other three-point shooters. If he'd been driving instead of shooting all game, Davidson might have won the game. With this loss, Davidson really needs to win the automatic bid out of the SoCon. Those casual fans who think that the Selection Committee will discount these last two games because of Curry's injury are mistaken, and do not understand how the Selection Committee operates. Davidson is 20-6, but they're 2-4 against the RPI Top 100 and their computer numbers aren't even that close to an at-large bid. To even have a chance at an at-large bid they've got to win the rest of their regular season games and then play very well in the SoCon tournament. As for Butler, this win steadies the ship after an uncharacteristic two game losing streak. They haven't completely locked up their own at-large bid yet, but they definitely would be in if the season ended now. If they can win their final two regular season games that should wrap up a Tournament bid, regardless of their Horizon tournament performance.

Miami (Fl) 69, Boston College 58
The middle of the pack in the ACC has been a mess for a few weeks now. I thought it might start to open up, but the only team to really separate itself is Florida State. Miami might have fallen off the bubble altogether if they'd lost here, but Jack McClinton wouldn't hear any of that. His 22 points led all scorers as Miami grabbed a double-digit lead early in the game and never let go. Miami is now 5-8 in the ACC with a pretty easy remaining schedule (at Virginia, at Georgia Tech, NC State). That said, they've probably got to win all of those games. It's possible for a 7-9 Miami team to make the Tournament if they have a really good ACC tournament run, but it's unlikely. They really need to win out. As for Boston College, they would probably be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. This loss drops them to 7-6 in the ACC and 8-7 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI and Sagarin rating have both fallen out of the Top 50. They do end with a relatively easy schedule (Florida State, at NC State, Georgia Tech), but they've got to win at least two of them. If they can win all three then they'll probably in the Tournament regardless of their ACC tournament performance.

Xavier Is Slipping

Charlotte 65, #17 Xavier 60
All of the chaos at the top of the Top 25 would have been a perfect opening for an under-the-radar Xavier team to make a run at a 1 seed. But suddenly they've forgotten how to play on the road. They actually played fairly well in this game (shooting percentages, turnovers and rebounds were all pretty much even between the two teams), and it was only a very clutch performance by Lamont Mack that was the difference. After scoring nothing in the first 32 minutes of the game, Mack scored all 12 of his points in the final eight. But this close loss does continue a trend, as it falls on the tail end of a stretch where they badly lost two road games to Dayton and Duquesne. The Selection Committee does care whether you can win away from home. I don't think there's much of a chance of Xavier falling all the way to the bubble, but their seed is plummeting by the week. If the season ended now they'd be something like a 6 seed.

#15 UCLA 85, #19 Washington 76

This win does not mean that everything is fixed for UCLA. After two straight bad road losses, it should have been obvious that they'd bounce back and take care of Washington at home. But even with this win, UCLA is still in a de facto four-way tie atop the Pac-10 with four losses. They have ruined any realistic chance they had at a 1 seed, and really have me doubting whether they are a realistic Final Four team. Their remaining schedule is pretty easy, so I would be shocked if they finish anything other than 14-4 or 13-5. That will earn them at least a share of the Pac-10 title, but they won't get a chance to impress the Selection Committee again until the Pac-10 tournament. As for Washington, they would have locked up a Tournament bid with a win here, but any win the rest of the way should do it. The Huskies have a fairly difficult the schedule the rest of the way, but have an excellent shot to end up with a share of the Pac-10 title.

Michigan 74, Minnesota 62
This was one of the more surprising results of the week. But the way Michigan plays, they can lose to anybody when they're not hitting their threes, but they can beat anybody when they are. It's why they have such a mix of glamor wins and weak losses. All in all, Michigan is still on the outside of the bubble looking in, with a difficult remaining schedule, but their resume is really getting fairly impressive. They are now 7-7 in the Big Ten with an 8-10 record against the RPI Top 100. They have an RPI of 48th and a Sagarin of 43rd. Michigan will have to get to at least 9-9, and then they'll need a solid performance in the Big Ten tournament. It can be done, but it's still a lower-than-50% chance. Minnesota, meanwhie, seemed to be a safe Tournament team just a few weeks ago, but four losses in their last five games have them back on the bubble. They are 7-7 in the Big Ten with a 6-7 record against the RPI Top 100, an RPI of 39th and a Sagarin of 38th. At first glance, they have a slightly better resume than Michigan, although not by much. But they've got an easier schedule remaining, and have a better chance at the 10-8 Big Ten record that would make them a likely Tournament team.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

W-3.5 BP65

The bubble is rapidly shrinking. For the first time all season I have less than 50 teams out of the BP65 that still have a chance at an-large bid. The next BP65 will be out after Saturday night's games:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. UConn
2. Louisville
2. Duke
2. MEMPHIS (C-USA)

3. UCLA (PAC-10)
3. Clemson
3. Villanova
3. Kansas

4. Wake Forest
4. Missouri
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Arizona State

5. Florida State
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Marquette
5. TENNESSEE (SEC)

6. West Virginia
6. LSU
6. Washington
6. Purdue

7. Syracuse
7. Illinois
7. UTAH STATE (WAC)
7. California

8. BYU (MWC)
8. Texas
8. Dayton
8. Wisconsin

9. Utah
9. Boston College
9. Florida
9. South Carolina

10. BUTLER (HORIZON)
10. Minnesota
10. Arizona
10. Ohio State

11. San Diego State
11. Kentucky
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
11. Georgetown

12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. UNLV
12. Saint Mary's
12. Kansas State

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

15. CORNELL (IVY)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Temple, Cincinnati, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UAB, USC

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Rhode Island, Providence, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, George Mason, Illinois State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Northeastern, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa, Niagara, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Stanford, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Saint Louis, St. John's, Hofstra, Central Florida, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Buffalo, Wyoming, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas-LR, Portland, Boise State

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Florida State Keeps On Rolling

Florida State 80, Miami (Fl) 67
Florida State is 0-3 against North Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest this season, but they're now 7-1 against the rest of the ACC, and are quietly building a very solid resume. They're now 10-6 against the RPI Top 100, and the RPI is up 21st. There are still a wide range of seeds available to the Seminoles, as I could easily see them getting anywhere between a 3 and a 11. They're most likely going to be in the 4-8 seed range, but there is a lot of room for improvement if they can finish strong. Miami, meanwhile, is in a free fall. They've lost eight of their last ten games, and find themselves 4-8 in the ACC and 5-10 against the RPI Top 100. They will have no chance at the Tournament at 6-10, which means that they've got to win at least three of their final four regular season games to even still have a chance at an at-large bid entering the ACC tournament.

Penn State 38, #16 Illinois 33
In general, the Big Ten gets a bad reputation as a conference with bad offense. It comes from a general misconception among casual fans that points per game are the way to judge offenses and defenses. In fact, it's points per possession, and Big Ten games simply have fewer possessions than the other top conferences, and the conference also has many of the nation's best defenses. For example, Pomeroy rates Wisconsin as the 20th best offense in the nation when adjusting for number of possessions and opponent, despite the fact that they only score 64 points per game. But that said, these two offenses stunk in this game. Both teams had as many turnovers as made baskets, and neither team shot better than 30% from the field. Just very ugly, and it was a missed chance for Illinois to really firmly put themselves in the Tournament. At 9-5, two more wins will lock them into the Tournament, but it's hard to see even a 10-8 Illinois team missing out. Penn State, meanwhile, continues to hang in the bubble picture. They are now in fourth place at 8-6 in the Big Ten, and are 6-8 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI of 58th. Despite the strength of the Big Ten, I think that Penn State needs to get to 11-7 to make the Tournament because of their weak out of conference resume. But they're definitely still in this thing.

Ole Miss 81, Tennessee 65

Every time I think Tennessee finally has their act together, they play a game like this. The half court defense was bad, and the rebounding was bad also. Just an all around bad night for Tennessee. The Vols still have solid computer numbers, and are 7-4 in the SEC, but they're only 7-9 against the RPI Top 100. In their five remaining regular season games they've got to play all three of their main SEC rivals on the road, and they've got to win at least one of them. It's hard to see a 9-7 Tennessee team earning an at-large bid. As for Ole Miss, this win was about keeping their at-large hopes alive. They're 5-6, and if they can somehow win three or four games in a row they can potentially become a serious bubble contender. But I don't see it happening. The SEC is down to five teams with a reasonable shot at an at-large bid, and Ole Miss isn't one of them.

Clemson Sends Maryland To The Brink

#13 Clemson 93, Maryland 64
You had to know that Clemson would come out strong after a tough loss to Virginia, and they came out and controlled this game from the start. The biggest difference was Trevor Booker, who was just a man among boys against Maryland's inferior front line. Clemson had lost four of their last eight games entering this one, but the resume still remains very strong. They're not going to make a run at a 1 seed unless they go undefeated for the rest of the regular season, but they can very realistically make a run at a 2 seed. Many of the other top teams nationwide have bogged down over the past couple of weeks, and the good seeds are out there for any team able to seize them. As for Maryland, I explained their Tournament situation here. I argued that they needed to beat either Clemson, Duke, North Carolina or Wake Forest, as well as each of their other two remaining regular season games, to be in position to make the Tournament. Well, one down and North Carolina is up next. If they lose to the Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon then they're going to need to win at least four of their next five games against tough ACC opponents, which is very unlikely. This North Carolina game is a must-win.

Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64
It's tough to ever win in peculiar Memorial Gym, even when Vanderbilt is having a mediocre season, and once again Kentucky is a victim. Jodie Meeks gets all of the press because he puts up huge numbers, but I have believed all season that Patrick Patterson is their most important player, and it's really been tough on Kentucky without him. It's not clear to me when he'll be back, but it's an important question because Kentucky has about as tough of an end to the regular season as one can have in the SEC (Tennessee, at South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, at Florida). They are now 7-4 in the SEC, 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, and have rapidly plummeting computer numbers. They'd probably actually be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. They're going to need at least three wins in those final five games. As for Vanderbilt, they're still alive for an at-large bid, but even with this win they're still a long shot. This win pushed their RPI inside the Top 100, and they're 5-6 in the SEC. It's going to be tough for any 9-7 SEC team to make the Tournament, which means that Vandy has to win out to be in the discussion entering the SEC tournament.

West Virginia 79, Notre Dame 68
Notre Dame had actually been showing a little life over their last couple of games, and there's no shame in losing at West Virginia, but when you've put yourself in such a deep hole you can't afford any losses at all. They are 5-8 against the Big East, and an atrocious 8-11 against the RPI Top 200. They've got to win at least three of their final five regular season games or they lose any chance to earn an at-large bid. And considering the fact that a 7-11 Notre Dame team would probably need to win five games in five nights to win the Big East tournament, they'd be clearly destined for the NIT. On the other side of the coin, West Virginia continues to slowly move up the Big East pecking order. As I've said before, the only thing that would keep West Virginia out of the Tournament would be failing to reach 9-9 in the Big East, and they are now nearly there at 7-6. They'll be a complete lock when they get to ten wins.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Pitt Grabs Control Of Big East

#4 Pittsburgh 76, #1 UConn 68
This game was exactly what we would have expected: It was hard-hitting, it was exciting, and in the end Pitt won to take control of the Big East. Not only that, but Pitt is also now in the driver's seat for a 1 seed in the Tournament. There are now four teams tied atop the Big East with two losses, but I think Marquette and UConn are starting to slip. Louisville has a really easy schedule and could potentially grab a share of the conference title, but Pitt would be the one with the better resume and in the better position for a 1 seed. UConn still has a shot for a 1 seed also, because it seems clear right now that the Big East has the best shot at a second 1 seed. The key will be avoiding any bad losses, and hoping that their other 1 seed contenders continue to falter (UCLA, Duke, Michigan State, et cetera). UConn's biggest problem has always been offense, and it's going to be even more of a problem without Dyson. They also might need to find some more bench production, because they only have seven healthy players who have played more than garbage minutes thus far this season.

Texas A&M 81, Texas 66
As I often say, when it doubt bet on the more desperate team. Texas is still something of a bubble team, and might potentially miss the Tournament, but there's no question that Texas A&M's at-large chances would have been dashed without a win here. A loss would have dropped them to 3-8, and it's hard for me to see any 8-8 Big 12 team making the Tournament. The Aggies are still only 5-8 against the RPI Top 100 and 2-5 in true road games, but if they can somehow win out and finish 9-7 then they'd have an excellent shot for an at-large bid. But even the biggest Texas A&M fans know that five more consecutive wins just isn't going to happen. Texas A&M, even with this win, is most likely going to the NIT. As for Texas, they are suddenly 6-5 in a weak Big 12. The conference only has three teams that look safe for the Tournament, and Texas isn't one of them. They are now 8-8 against the RPI Top 125, with computer numbers that are rapidly dropping (RPI of 44th, Sagarin of 31st, Pomeroy of 28th). They'd still probably be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they have got to get to at least 9-7 to make the Tournament. They absolutely need a victory over Oklahoma on Saturday night, and honestly I think that their desperation makes that mismatch something of a toss-up, or else Longhorns fans are really going to start getting nervous. They end the season with three tough games (at Oklahoma State, Baylor, at Kansas), so a loss to Oklahoma would mean that Texas will need a win over Texas Tech plus at least two wins in those three very tough games, or else they're really in a lot of trouble.

#21 Purdue 73, #5 Michigan State 54
The injury to UConn's Jerome Dyson gave Michigan State a golden opportunity to grab a 1 seed, but they responded absolutely terribly here. To be fair, a lot of the credit goes to Matt Painter, who did a great job of sending waves of guards at Michigan State. He had no chance of outrebounding the Spartans no matter what he did, and by keeping Michigan State's guards out of the lane he made it very difficult for the Spartans to get any points on the board. As good as Michigan State's bigs are, they're not very good at scoring. With this loss, Michigan State now needs to go nearly undefeated the rest of the way to get a 1 seed. As for Purdue, this win pulls them back off the bubble. They're now only one game behind Michigan State with a chance to earn a share of the Big Ten title. They have an easy schedule remaining, which means that it would take a complete collapse to finish worse than the 2-3 that would get them to 11-7 and completely lock them into the Tournament field. For all intents and purposes, Purdue is now playing for Big Ten hardware and their Tournament seed.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Wisconsin Wins Fourth Straight

Wisconsin 55, Ohio State 50
It might not have been the glamor game that people like to see in ESPN's Gameday game, but it was a nice solid Big Ten battle with big bubble implications. By winning their fourth game in a row, Wisconsin has put themselves firmly back in the Tournament. They are now 7-6 in the Big Ten, and with their solid computer numbers they would probably make the Tournament with a 9-9 finish and at least one win in the Big Ten tournament. If they can get to 10-8 then they're probably a lock regardless of their Big Ten tournament performance. As for Ohio State, this loss drops them into a similar position to Wisconsin. They are now 7-5, and would probably also be a lock at 10-8. The one worry for Ohio State all season has been that Sagarin and Pomeroy were rating them as worse than the RPI, meaning that they were due for a fall, but those numbers have converged. The Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings both have them just inside the Top 40 in the nation, and they have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. Ohio State should be back in the Tournament this year.

Boston College 80, #5 Duke 74
This may not be one of the best teams that Al Skinner has had at Boston College, but this is the first time he has ever beaten Duke and North Carolina in the same season. Tyrese Rice did his best Ty Lawson imitation, and tore through Duke's defenders. Duke continues to get really poor performances out of their guards: none of them can guard anybody without fouling, and none of them have shot well for some time. At this point, Duke needs to forget about trying to win the ACC. They've got to just stay confident and try to forget about their collapses the past two seasons, and to just try to get back in a groove before the Tournament begins. Meanwhile, Boston College now improves to 7-5 in the ACC and 8-6 against the RPI Top 100. The RPI is still on 51st, but teams can make the Tournament with RPIs in the 50s as the Selection Committee doesn't pay as much attention to the RPI as most people think they do. I think Boston College makes the Tournament if they get to 9-7, which means splitting their next four games. Since they'll probably be favored in at least two of those four games, Boston College will make the Tournament if they just beat the teams they're supposed to beat the rest of the way.

#18 Arizona State 65, USC 53

Arizona State grabbed a small lead before halftime and slowly expanded on it throughout the second half. James Harden did a nice job of playing more under control than he did against UCLA, allowing Arizona State to drastically cut down on their turnovers. It also helped that USC didn't have anybody of the caliber of Darren Collison playing defense. At 9-4 in the Pac-10, Arizona State is still only one game out of the Pac-10 lead, and could be tied within a few days as Washington will have to survive a very tough game at UCLA on Thursday night. The Sun Devils should have their Tournament bid locked up within a week or so, and they still have a chance for a 2 seed if they can find a way to win the Pac-10 regular season title. As for USC, they're getting in a real danger zone. They've lost three straight games to fall to 6-6 in the Pac-10. With an easy schedule remaining they have a good possibility of getting to 10-8, but even that might not be enough in a weak Pac-10 for a team without much of an overall resume right now (3-8 against the RPI Top 100, plus losses to Oregon State and Seton Hall). The only way USC is making the Tournament as an at-large will be if they win all the games they're supposed to win from here on out, plus one or two that they're not supposed to win.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Ranked Teams Ain't Got Nothin' On Wake

#8 Wake Forest 86, #25 Florida State 63
Despite struggling a lot in recent games against lesser ACC foes, Wake Forest now moves to 4-0 against ranked teams this season. This isn't really as big of a surprise as you might think, because Wake Forest is such a young and immature team. They get up to play the big boys, and they struggle when they don't play with high intensity against lesser foes. As they gain experience and maturity they'll do a better job of taking care of business and winning games they're supposed to win. And if they can do that, a 1 seed is still a possibility for the Demon Deacons. As for Florida State, they'd still be a certain Tournament team if the season ended now, but they haven't yet wrapped up that at-large bid. The resume is really good all around, and they've got great computer numbers, so I think Florida State is in excellent shape if they just get to 8-8. If they get to 9-7 they're probably a lock for the Tournament, even if they go one-and-done in the ACC tournament. With a relatively easy next few games, this means that Florida State could potentially wrap up their Tournament bid before the end of the month.

Tennessee 69, Vanderbilt 50
Tennessee was really struggling for a while there, but they now seem to have the defensive consistency needed to be a good team. When they're playing good half court defense, they're really tough for anybody to beat. South Carolina may be the hottest team in the SEC, but they're going to run into reality at some point. Right now it seems clear that Tennessee is the most consistently good team in the SEC right now, and they've got to be the solid favorite to take the conference. On the other side of the coin, Vanderbilt is running out of time to make a run at an at-large bid. On its face, the 15-9 overall record and the 4-6 SEC record don't look that bad, but Vandy is 0-5 against the RPI Top 50, and their losses include Illinois-Chicago and Georgia Tech. Their RPI has slipped to 102nd, Sagarin has them 86th and Pomeroy has them 89th. I can't remember the last time a team earned an at-large bid with a Sagarin rating outside of 50th, so Vanderbilt needs to go on a big winning streak right now if they're going to salvage a Tournament bid. They can afford at most one more loss in their final six games. Otherwise there's only a Georgia-style run in the SEC touranament standing between them and the NIT, or possibly just a trip home without any postseason at all.

Maryland 83, Virginia Tech 73
When in doubt, always project the more desperate team to win a game. In this particular game, there's no question that Maryland was the more desperate team. Virginia Tech is a real bubble team and certainly is really hurt by this loss, but they will still have plenty of chances ahead to earn that at-large bid. Maryland, on the other hand, is really in a desperate position. This win pulls them back to 5-5 in the ACC as well as a more respectable 5-7 against the RPI Top 100. They have that really nice win over Michigan State, but that's pretty much wiped out by the loss to Morgan State. All of the computer rankings, even after this victory, have them around 55-60th in the nation. So they wouldn't be a Tournament team if the season ended now, but they're within shouting distance. They've got a great opportunity ahead because Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest are all coming to town, meaning that they'll get a great chance to earn a marquee victory in the ACC. With at least one win during those three games, and at least an 8-8 overall ACC record, I think Maryland will have an excellent at-large scenario entering the ACC tournament. Virginia Tech actually has a weaker out of conference resume than Maryland, so I think they've actually got to get to 9-7. At 6-4 they've got to split their final six games. They also have plenty of chances for a marquee win, with Duke, North Carolina and Florida State coming to town.

UCLA Needs A Sense Of Urgency

Arizona 84, #6 UCLA 72
UCLA is an incredibly talented team, but they just seem like a team that can't play to its potential for more than a few minutes at a time. Even the individual players are not living up to their potential. Darren Collison should be a Player of the Year candidate, and he shows it at times as he terrorizes teams with his quick hands and hot shooting, but he never does it for entire games. And UCLA should be a contender for a fourth straight Final Four, but instead they're wallowing in a three-way tie for second place in the fifth best conference in the nation. I expect the Bruins to bounce back with a vengeance at home against Washington on Thursday night, but if they lose there then things really start to get worrying. Ben Howland is a great coach at in game strategy, and this game only got so close because he coached the pants off of Russ Pennell, but he's struggling this year at getting his kids to play 40 minutes each night. As for Arizona, this win cannot be overestimated. They probably would have been in the Tournament if the season ended two days ago, but this win actually takes them off the bubble for the time being. They are now 8-5 in the Pac-10 with a very nice 6-5 record against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Gonzaga, Washington and UCLA, with no bad losses. The RPI is 44th, Sagarin has them 39th and Pomeroy 36th. They've now got eight days until their next game, which will begin a key three game stretch. All three games will be on the road, against Arizona State, Washington State and Washington. They should at least split their final two games, meaning that two out of their next three will probably make them 11-7 in the Pac-10. With several quality wins and no bad losses, that is probably a Tournament resume.

#16 Kansas 85, Kansas State 74
This was a game of wild swings, as Kansas State actually led by 16, then Kansas took the lead and opened it up to double-digits. Kansas State got it back to a two point game before Kansas pulled away in the final minutes. This was an important win for Kansas to hang onto their position in the Big 12. Despite the 8-0 start in conference play, you had to figure they were going to lose at least one game this week with two very tough road games (Missouri and Kansas State). Escaping with a split means that they managed to tread water through this tough week, and they did not lose ground. In fact, with all the chaos in the Top 25 they might actually move up in the Top 25 a little bit. At 10-4 against the RPI Top 100, and with wins over Tennessee, Siena and Washington out of conference, Kansas is playing for seeding at this point. As for Kansas State, even this loss didn't drop them out of today's BP65. The computer numbers are weak because of back-to-back losses to Iowa and Oregon, but at 6-5 in the Big 12 they can still earn a Tournament win just because of enough overall wins. They've got to go 4-1 the rest of the way, I think, but they should be favored in all but one game (at Missouri). If they can upset Missouri then they'll be in really good shape, but even without that they've just got to take care of business in their other games.

Penn State 68, Minnesota 63
Penn State stays on the bubble with this solid home victory. They've got that win over Michigan State and have zero bad losses, but they're only 5-8 against the RPI Top 100. At 7-6 in the Big Ten they've got to get to at least 10-8 to make the Tournament. It's unlikely, but a lot more realistic now that they won this game over Minnesota. As for Minnesota, they've been dragged from the Top 20 all the way back to the bubble. Sagarin and Pomeroy predicted this a while back, as their overall stats were not as good as their record. They were due for some close losses, and this is one of several now. They are also only 7-6 in the Big Ten without any really big wins, but their overall resume is still better than Penn State's, and the computer numbers reflect that. They've also got a much more generous remaining schedule, and should manage to get to 10-8. At 10-8, I think one Big Ten tournament victory will probably earn Minnesota their first Tournament bid under Tubby Smith.

W-4 BP65

Sorry for the lack of recaps tonight. It was Valentine's Day, after all. I'll try to catch up Sunday. In the meantime, here's the new BP65 to chew on. Next one comes out after Wednesday night's games:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. UConn
2. Duke
2. Louisville
2. UCLA (PAC-10)

3. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
3. Clemson
3. Villanova
3. Wake Forest

4. Kansas
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Missouri
4. Arizona State

5. Marquette
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. TENNESSEE (SEC)
5. Illinois

6. Florida State
6. West Virginia
6. Washington
6. Texas

7. Syracuse
7. LSU
7. Purdue
7. UTAH STATE (WAC)

8. BYU (MWC)
8. California
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Dayton

9. Utah
9. Boston College
9. Wisconsin
9. Florida

10. Minnesota
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. South Carolina
10. UNLV

11. Arizona
11. Kentucky
11.Miami (Fl)
11. Ohio State

12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Kansas State
12. Saint Mary's
12. Georgetown

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

15. BINGHAMTON (AMERICA EAST)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Providence, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UAB, San Diego State, USC

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Rhode Island, Temple, Notre Dame, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, George Mason, Northeastern, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Mississippi State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Hofstra, Houston, Tulsa, Niagara, Buffalo, Stanford, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
La Salle, Saint Louis, St. John's, Iowa, Iowa State, Texas Tech, James Madison, Central Florida, UTEP, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Evansville, Wyoming, Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas-LR, Portland, Boise State

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Epic Georgetown-Syracuse Battle

#22 Syracuse 98, Georgetown 94, OT
When you consider the bubble implications and everything else, this might end up being the best game of the day. Syracuse led by 16 points with about 8 minutes to go before their foul shooting really started to kill them. I refuse to believe that it's possible that a high level Division I athlete can possibly shoot 17% from the free throw line in conference play, but that's what Arinze Onuaku was heading into this game. A loss here would have really started making Syracuse fans nervous about another NIT trip, but this win gets them back to 7-6. With wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis out of conference, and very solid computer numbers, it's hard to see a 9-9 Syracuse team missing the Tournament. If they get to a tenth win then they'll be a lock. It's hard to see them missing the Tournament now. As for Georgetown, they really just don't look like they want to be a Tournament team. They refuse to give the ball to their best player (Greg Monroe), and they are atrocious at offense. JTIII's offensive system requires a lot of movement off the ball, and way too often I see five Hoyas standing and passing the ball around the arc. They have had a really tough schedule, but seven losses in eight games is unacceptable. They are now 4-8, and I can't fathom a 7-11 team making the Tournament out of any conference. That means that Goergetown must go at least 4-2 to finish their regular season to make the Tournament. Looking at their remaining schedule they've got three relatively easy games (at South Florida, at St. Johns, DePaul), so they've absolutely got to win all three of those games. They're still on the bubble because of great computer numbers and a number of very good wins, but at some point they've got to start winning Big East games.

#1 UConn 62, Seton Hall 54
A solid, but not great performance for UConn in their first game without Jerome Dyson. Everybody will hear about Hasheem Thabeet's 25-20-9 (that would be points, rebounds and blocks), but the underrated reason for their win today was Jeff Adrien's 14 points and 15 boards. He is the leader of the team, and he always steps up when UConn has their backs against the wall. That said, even with those two performances it took atrocious Seton Hall shooting (31% from the field), and a huge foul disparity (20-9 in team fouls, with UConn taking 21 more shots from the line) to barely survive with an eight point victory. UConn is a very thin team now, and it's going to be very tough for them to hang onto their Big East lead as long as Dyson is out. As for Seton Hall, this puts to bed their five game winning streak, even though it was a bit of a fraudulent streak as the wins were over Georgetown, St. John's, DePaul and Rutgers (twice). They end their schedule with a really brutal stretch, and I don't think there was ever reason to take Seton Hall seriously as a bubble team. They've got to win at Marquette on Tuesday night to get back in the bubble discussion.

#19 Missouri 70, Nebraska 47
I'm very impressed with the professional way that Missouri has blown through their schedule in recent weeks. With the frenetic way that they play basketball you'd expect an occasional clunker, but this now marks nine wins in their last ten games. Just two weeks ago most people didn't even view this as a Tournament team, but at this point they've nearly locked up a bid with February only halfway over. The key for Missouri from here on out will be their first two games in March, at Kansas and at home against Oklahoma. If they can split those two games then they're going to lock up a nice single digit seed. If they can win both then something like a 2 or a 3 seed is a real possibility. Meanwhile, things are starting to get bleak for Nebraska's chances. They are now 5-5 in the Big 12 with a 4-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and computer numbers well outside the Top 50. I think they've got to win five of their final six regular season games to have a plausible Tournament scenario entering the Big 12 tournament.

How Will The Committee Judge Saint Mary's?

#21 Gonzaga 72, Saint Mary's 70
Gonzaga actually looked pretty good in this game, after looking atrocious for most of that Memphis game. They are actually starting to make the WCC look bad by continuing to beat up on everybody while struggling to beat the big boys out-of-conference. The boat has sailed on that 1 seed, but the Zags could still earn a 3 seed if they play well. If they win out, they even might be in the discussion for a 2 seed. Gonzaga should be in a good position to earn their first Elite Eight appearance of the century (yes, it's been that long). As for Saint Mary's, I was impressed at the way they took it to Gonzaga in this one. I expected them to try to slow this game and drag it out because of the absence of Patty Mills, but they actually tried to run with Gonzaga and managed to make a game out of it. But they're going to be a conundrum for the Selection Committee, because they were unquestionably a Tournament team with Mills (even better than they were last season), but they aren't looking like much of a Tournament team now. They're only 6-4 in the WCC, and 2-3 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI ranking is down to 72nd, and RPI and Pomeroy both see them in the 55-60 range. A lot of people are confused at how the Selection Committee deals with injuries to key players, and the reality is that they don't care about injuries. They judge teams on what they do, and don't take into account potential Tournament performance. The example I like to bring out is the 2000 Tournament, when Kenyon Martin was the consensus NCAA Player of the Year, but was injured for the season in the C-USA tournament. The Selection Committee still gave Cincy a 2 seed based on their performance, ignoring the fact that they clearly weren't one of the eight best teams in the nation without Martin. They promptly lost in the second round. So Saint Mary's has to win games, and they won't get a break because they had to play without Mills. They have a relatively easy final four regular season conference games, but they've got to win at least three of them unless they pull a big upset over Utah State in their Bracketbuster game. The WCC is looking more and more like a one-bid league.

#20 Illinois 60, Northwestern 59
This might have been the worst collapse I saw all season long. Northwestern was up by 14 points with just over five minutes to go before Illinois closed on a remarkable 17-2 run. Northwestern couldn't handle the press at all, and it also nearly felt like a road game for them. Illinois basketball travels well, especially within the state, and Northwestern struggles to fill the seats. One of the reasons that a good press can snowball on road teams is because the crowd gets behind it and makes the game feel even more frantic than it really is. This is something that home teams generally don't suffer from, but Northwestern did in this game. This is the best Northwestern team in years, but they're not going to make the Tournament because they just can't finish close games. They're still alive for an at-large bid if they can win a bunch of a games in a row, but it's not going to happen. Still, this is a talented young team and they should be even better next season. As for Illinois, they're getting close to locking up their own Tournament bid. They move to 8-4 in the Big Ten with an RPI of 13th. Sagarin also ranks them 13th. They've got a very tough schedule remaining, but they only need to go 3-3 to lock up that Tournament bid, regardless of their Big Ten tournament performance.

West Virginia 93, #13 Villanova 72
We've seen a lot of teams just roll over and die on random nights recently, from Duke to Wake Forest to Louisville. I don't really understand why we're seeing so much of this during this particular February. That said, I don't think this was one of those games, as Villanova didn't play as badly as you might think by just looking at the final score. West Virginia is a very good team that has a very good overall resume, but their one gap was the 5-6 Big East record that they entered this game with. They really needed this game, and they came out highly motivated. They looked very good in all aspects of this game. Meanwhile, Villanova was really killed by foul trouble, the most devastating loss being Dante Cunningham. Cunningham is the most important player on Villanova, and they really struggled when he missed the final 14 minutes of the first half with two fouls. In addition, Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds fouled out (Reynolds fouled out on a particularly dumb foul 35 feet from the basket with several minutes still remaining). Against a motivated West Virginia team, such a shorthanded Villanova team didn't have a chance. This damages, but doesn't end Villanova's chances at something like a 3 seed. They still have a very solid resume. As for West Virginia, having a respectable Big East record is the final piece of their at-large bid puzzle. As I've said before, they will almost definitely make the Tournament if they can only get to 9-9 in Big East play. At 6-6 with a relatively easy schedule ahead, I actually think they have a better shot at 10 wins than any other final record. West Virginia is looking good for a Tournament bid right now.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Notre Dame Hangs In There

Notre Dame 90, #7 Louisville 57
Obviously Notre Dame was overrated when they were ranked in the Top Ten a few months ago, but I think they've gotten to the point that they're now underrated. They had lost seven straight games, but against a truly brutal schedule. With a relatively easy schedule ahead (only two of their final seven regular season games are against teams currently ranked), the Irish can potentially win a lot of games from here on out. The RPI is still bad (64th), and the 4-9 record against the RPI Top 100 is as well, but the Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy both view the Irish as a Top 40 team that has simply had a disproportionate number of close losses. This team is still dangerous, and it's a mistake to count them out of the Tournament. That said, they've dug a hole for themselves, as they're only 4-7 in the Big East. They've probably got to get to 9-9 to have a plausible at-large scenario entering the Big East tournament, so they've got to turn this one win into a real streak. Louisville, meanwhile, just looked awful in this game. I think Rick Pitino failed to show the necessary urgency early in this game, letting his kids play through their problems rather than calling timeout and yelling at them for being lazy. I haven't seen them look this bad in a couple of months, and it's a huge missed opportunity for a team that had a real shot to take the Big East after Jerome Dyson went down with an injury. Louisville has an easy schedule remaining, but they can't lose more than one game the rest of the regular season to have a shot at a share of the Big East title.

#18 Arizona State 74, #6 UCLA 67
You've got to give Arizona State credit for pulling the season sweep of UCLA, but I wasn't at all impressed with their play. James Harden had 8 of Arizona State's 17 turnovers, and UCLA collected eight more steals than their opponents. The Sun Devils won because they always bailed themselves out with hot shooting. It's good to be a good shooting team, but you can't win consistently if you need to shoot over 60% from behind the arc to win. That said, a win is a win and Arizona State is now 8-4 in the Pac-10 with a very nice 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100. They are closing in on their first Tournament bid since 2003, and I think they'll completely wrap one up when they get to 11 wins. A 10-8 Arizona State team that loses in their first Pac-10 tournament game might get them feeling deja vu heading into Selection Sunday, so that 11th win will be important for the nerves of Arizona State fans. For UCLA, they now fall to 0-3 against the second and third best teams in the Pac-10. Their overall resume is still solid and they're still the best team in the conference, but the fact that they have not been able to beat an elite team all season is what makes me feel like this team has a lower ceiling than in past years. I just don't see them making it four straight Final Fours.

Arizona 83, USC 76
An important match-up between two Pac-10 bubble teams. It seems more and more likely that UCLA, Washington, Arizona State and Cal will all be Tournament bound, and Arizona and USC will be fighting for the fifth and final Pac-10 bid. And since USC had beaten Arizona back in January, it was essential for Arizona to hold serve in their home match-up here. Even with this win, Arizona's resume is fairly iffy. They're 7-8 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI of 51st. Sagarin has them 44th, which means that they're right on the bubble, and they could go either way if they season ended now. Without any real marquee wins (Gonzaga and Washington are arguably marquee wins, but they're less than what many other bubble teams will be coming to the table with), Arizona has just got to win and win and win. Obviously they need to get to 20 wins, but I think they actually need to get to 21, maybe 22 wins to earn a Tournament bid. They're currently 17-8 with a 7-5 conference record. If they only finish the season 10-8 they'll need a win or two in the Pac-10 tournament. If they get to 11-7 then one Pac-10 tournament win should wrap up a bid. For USC, they are really starting to suffer from a lack of depth. Five players scored all of their points and had all but one rebound and assist in this game. The Pac-10 has a bunch of teams with very talented starting lineups and dreadfully thin benches, but even by those standards USC's performance was pretty ridiculous. At 6-5 in the Pac-10 and 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, they face a very important road game at Arizona State next. A win and they'll be in excellent shape, with a very easy schedule remaining. But a loss and they'll have to be careful to make sure to get that 10th Pac-10 win. It's hard to see a 9-9 Pac-10 team making the Tournament.