Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Post-Draft BP68

Since my preseason bracket projection we've had a lot of changes. First, NBA Draft decisions, then a slew of transfers and recruits that still had to sign.

In all, seven teams moved into the Field of 68: California, Central Michigan, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Providence, UNLV and Utah. The seven teams that dropped out were Arkansas, Boise State, Buffalo, Florida, Syracuse, TCU and Temple. If you're wondering why I'm not totally buying the hype on teams like Maryland or California or any other team, just click on the tags on the left side of the page, and read what I've written about each team.

There are a lot of changes, but if there's one overarching theme it's that the bubble looks really deep this coming season. I thought for sure that I would put teams like Florida State, Illinois, Tulsa and George Washington in as at-large teams, but just couldn't think of another team to drop out.

Why does the bubble seem stronger? Increased use of the graduate transfer rule to fill roster holes is a reason. But in general, college basketball just keeps getting better and deeper. There is just so much talent that ends up at second tier programs simply because there aren't enough scholarships available for all of them at top tier schools.

In other words, we should have another fantastic season ahead of us, and one that is likely to be less top heavy than this past season.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday 2016:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. Virginia
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Maryland

3. Oklahoma
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Iowa State
3. SMU (AAC)

4. Duke
4. Purdue
4. Texas
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

5. Indiana
5. UCLA
5. Xavier
5. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. Wisconsin
6. Oregon
6. Baylor
6. Texas A&M

7. Cincinnati
7. Utah
7. Miami-Florida
7. Dayton

8. Michigan
8. Louisville
8. California
8. Georgetown

9. NC State
9. Notre Dame
9. LSU
9. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

10. UConn
10. West Virginia
10. Ohio State
10. Vanderbilt

11. Pittsburgh
11. Providence
11. Illinois State
11. UNLV
11. BYU

12. Rhode Island
12. Butler
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)

13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (OVC)
13. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
14. HARVARD (IVY LEAGUE)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, Florida State, Syracuse, George Washington, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Iowa, Oklahoma State, TCU, Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, Boise State, Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Pepperdine

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Creighton, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, UTEP, Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Evansville, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Arizona State, Colorado, Washington, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Vermont, Houston, Boston College, Virginia Tech, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Northeastern, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Oakland, Princeton, Monmouth, Siena, Western Michigan, Loyola-Chicago, Fresno State, Wyoming, Murray State, North Dakota State, USC, Washington State, Missouri, Portland, Santa Clara