Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Morning News: Iowa Wins At Ohio St, Maryland Tops Michigan St In 2OT, Florida Loses Creatively, And More

This Big Ten thing is kind of fun, huh?
Iowa Wins At Ohio State Last season, Iowa went 2-9 in games decided by six points or less, but they're now 2-1 in such games this season after this impressive win at Ohio State in both teams' Big Ten openers. Of course, you never want to draw conclusions by how a small handful of jump shots fall. In this one, it was Iowa hitting their final three jump shots while Ohio State missed their last three shots (two of the three being jump shots). That's just how it goes sometimes.

But while Iowa isn't really any different of a team by winning or losing this game in the final minute, this win is really big for their resume. They had been just 1-4 against likely Tournament teams prior to this one. They didn't have any bad losses, and despite being outside the bracket in nearly half of the Bracket Matrix brackets, the reality was that Iowa was not at serious risk of missing the NCAA Tournament. But Iowa's Big Ten schedule is definitely front-loaded, and they easily could have started the season with something like a 3-6 conference record. This win should help them avoid that.

I talked a few times the last couple of months about how much of a mystery Ohio State was going to be when they entered conference play. They played just two games against likely RPI Top 100 opponents, and lost both. Both games were respectable, competitive losses away from home against elite teams, but it was going to be hard to tell how good they were until they played a few Big Ten games. For example, would a player like D'Angelo Russell be able to keep up his hot start when the level of competition rose. He struggled here (4-for-16 shooting), but it is just a single game. The Buckeyes can easily bounce right back by taking care of business at home against Illinois on Saturday.

Welcome To The Big Ten, Maryland As far as conference openers go, Maryland sure picked an interesting way to finish their first ever Big Ten game. It was an ugly start, though, with the two teams combining to shoot 2-for-18 behind the arc in the first half. Michigan State had a 22.9 eFG% in the first half, and they entered the half with just two touchdowns, trailing by a field goal 17-14. Shooting wasn't particularly good in the second half, but it was better. Anytime you have a game go double overtime both teams inevitably had multiple chances to win, so it's silly to draw narratives, but a road victory at East Lansing will look good on Maryland's resume all season long.

Maryland was happy to finally have a full strength Dez Wells. Wells had missed seven straight games before playing not particularly effectively against Oakland. But he was effective here, pouring in 16 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists. Maryland freshman star Melo Trimble showed the savvy of a veteran being productive when his shot wasn't falling, attacking the rim and getting to the line 14 times, allowing him to score 17 points despite just 2-for-13 shooting from the field. On the other side of the ball, Denzel Valentine couldn't do the same, shooting 1-for-9 but finishing with just 4 points. Valentine just isn't capable of creating his shot enough to be a consistent go-to scorer for the Spartans in the Big Ten.

With this win, we have to start talking about Maryland as potentially the top contender to Wisconsin in the Big Ten. I don't think they're quite there, but they have to at least be in the discussion. Just in case they do make a run, it's worth noting that their only game against the Badgers this season will come in College Park.

Michigan State is now 0-3 in overtime games, and their season would look a lot different with better luck in close games. That said, their offensive execution late in games continues to be really miserable. They have a key home game coming up next against Indiana. That's the type of game that they should take care of business in, but if they lose then we might actually have to start talking bubble scenarios with them.

Florida Loses In Very Creative Fashion Well, I don't think I've seen a team lose this way before. With the clock running down on a tie game, Devon Bookert attempted a three-pointer and missed it, but in trying to rebound the ball Florida's Jacob Kurtz accidentally knocked the ball back into the basket. Officially in the box score it counts as a "team basket" for Florida State. You can watch the crazy play below:

Florida's roster is still not fully together yet. Brandone Francis just began to practice with the team and didn't play here. Eli Carter continues to suffer with injuries, and he played less than a minute here before re-aggravating his injury and sitting out the rest of the game. If they can ever get their full roster together there's no reason that they can't be one of the ten best teams in the country in March. But bad luck in close games has combined with the injuries to give the Gators a pretty brutal resume at this point. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 81st. Unless they knock off Kentucky and win the SEC, they're going to have a relatively low NCAA Tournament seed, and they're potentially going to be a very dangerous one.

This is a nice win for Florida State, but a fluky home upset of Florida is far from a sign that they've turned the corner with this young team. Overall they just haven't been a good team this season, and they still appear destined to finish below .500 in ACC play.

Michigan Escapes Illinois After a horrific few weeks, Michigan needed some kind of win... any kind of win. And they actually trailed by double-digits early in the second half here, but finally got some good shooting luck and hit 6 of their final 9 three-pointers to get this game to overtime and to eventually pull away in the extra period. The star was Aubrey Dawkins, who had scored just 15 points in his college career before scoring 20 points here, including 6-for-7 behind the arc.

Michigan's offense still doesn't look right. There's still not enough passing and offensive movement, for example. But their turnovers were back to normal (just 5 of them here), and they finally out-shot an opponent, if only barely. But now Michigan heads into an interesting stretch with three upcoming games that are more or less toss-up games, on the road at Purdue and Penn State and then back home for Minnesota. The Vegas lines should be small for all three games. The Wolverines no longer have a large margin of error for earning an at-large bid.

Illinois has struggled to score efficiently against quality opponents this season. They have failed to crack 1 PPP in any of their five games against Pomeroy Top 100 opponents thus far. They don't shoot that badly, but they don't pass well and it makes it hard for them to get easy shots. They probably need to get to 10-8 in Big Ten play to have a good shot for an at-large bid, and 0-2 is staring them in the face with a road game at Ohio State up next.

Cincinnati Beats NC State Mick Cronin is still not able to coach Cincinnati, but they did have an uncharacteristic offensive explosion without him here against NC State. The defensive effort just wasn't there for the Wolfpack, who allowed Cincinnati to hit 15-for-19 on layups and dunks and to score 38 paint points. Overall, Cincy had a 56.7 eFG% and 1.25 PPP. To put that in perspective, that's their second best offensive efficiency against any team all season long, including cupcakes. In fact, all of last season they had just a single game where they both shot and scored more efficiently. It's just not often this easy for the Bearcats offensively.

With the AAC down this season, Cincinnati really needed this win. All they had in non-conference play before this was a win over San Diego State, with potentially iffy losses to Ole Miss and Nebraska. They'll still need to go at least 11-7 in AAC play to earn an at-large bid, but that's very doable. A home game against SMU provides them with an important AAC opener on Saturday.

NC State finishes non-conference play with zero wins over likely RPI Top 50 opponents and two iffy losses (Wofford and Purdue). They're going to face an uphill battle in ACC play to an at-large bid. They'll need to go at least 9-9, and probably will need to get to 10-8. In their first two weeks they get home games against both Duke and North Carolina, and really need to find a way to steal at least one of those games.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Morning News: Stony Brook Stuns Washington, Harvard Falls to Arizona St, Alabama Beats UCLA, And More

Jameel Warney was the best player for either team last night.
Stony Brook Stuns Washington Washington was due for a reality check at some point. Being ranked 13th in both human polls was kind of a joke. But I don't think any of us saw that reality check coming at home to Stony Brook. That said, Stony Brook is no joke, and they have a big time talent in Jameel Warney who was a man amongst boys in the America East even back when he was a freshman. Now a junior, he's a major conference talent. He led all players here with 15 points, including 10 points, 6 rebounds and 2 blocks in the 2nd half alone. Stony Brook did hit 9-for-18 behind the arc, but they also played even on the glass and had 9 steals and 7 blocks. Those are not typical stats you see for an America East team on the road in the Pac-12.

I've projected Washington as a bubble team the last few weeks, and moved them up to an 11 seed in my most recent projected bracket. This bad loss doesn't wipe away what they've done in the early going this season, but with the Pac-12 down there isn't a big margin for error. The fact that they're likely going to have a gaudy won/loss record will help, but they probably need to get to 10-8 in conference play to earn an at-large bid.

Stony Brook was my preseason pick to win the America East and I've stuck with them since, but this is the type of win that could turn them from a 15/16 seed to something like a 14 seed, or even possibly a 13 seed if things fall right during conference tournament season. There's no question that this Stony Brook team is good enough to win an NCAA Tournament game if given a chance. They proved that right here.

Harvard Falls To Arizona State Harvard's offense has been uneven, at best, in the early going this season. Struggling against Virginia is understandable, but they've also finished well under 1 PPP against Holy Cross, Vermont and Arizona State. They finished with 0.77 PPP here. When Harvard's offense really stalls, it's when Wesley Saunders plays hero ball. Here he took more than 1/3 of Harvard's shots, scoring just 15 points. Saunders is a very good player, but if Harvard doesn't share the ball well they're really going to struggle to score. Their defense is awesome, but they need something offensively to be a dangerous team in March.

Harvard will finish the regular season without an RPI Top 50 win, and they don't even have a certain RPI Top 100 win, though UMass has a good chance to end up there, and there's a reasonable chance for Yale and Columbia to end up there as well. But Harvard's resume is going to remain soft, and it's going to make it very difficult for them to earn better than a 10-12 seed.

Arizona State is not a bad team, but they've had bad luck in close games, going 0-4 in games decided by five points or fewer. So they finish non-conference play 8-5 with just this win to go with bad losses to Marquette and Lehigh. They're potentially good enough to make a bubble run, but they have a ton of work to do in conference play. Anything less than 11-7 almost certainly leaves them out.

Alabama Beats UCLA The media "conference" focus has been entirely on the Big Ten, due to the fact that Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska have each suffered a really bad loss. But if one of the six big conferences has been a disappointment this season, it's really been the Pac-12. In fact, both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate the SEC better than the Pac-12. It's not a big gap, so we can't say definitively that the SEC is better, but the fact that it's even at this point would have seemed impossible preseason. And so though this seems like an "upset", it really wasn't. Bama was a four point Vegas favorite.

Of course it's always a mistake to draw narrative conclusions from close games. Bryce Alford had a really good look at a three with UCLA down by 1 with around 45 seconds to go and it bounced off the rim twice before falling out. Alabama then hit five of six free throws down the stretch to finish this one off. But UCLA has, overall, been a disappointment this season. This is the only loss UCLA has suffered against a non-elite opponent, but their best win was a close one over San Diego and they even struggled with teams like UC-Riverside. They're going to have to go at least 10-8 in Pac-12 play to earn an at-large bid, and realistically need to get to 11-7. They open with a brutal road trip, to Colorado and Utah, this coming weekend.

Alabama doesn't have a loss outside the RPI Top 50 this season and this could potentially end up an RPI Top 50 victory, so it looks like once again they'll be hanging in the vicinity of the Tournament bubble. But until they can score more consistently or rebound better, it's hard to see how they can win enough in the SEC play to earn that at-large bid. Obviously that home game against Kentucky on January 17th looms as a gigantic opportunity.

Cal State Bakersfield Knocks Off California The Pac-12's no good very bad day completed itself here with California getting dropped by Cal State Bakersfield. This was a flat out awful performance by California. Cal State Bakersfield basically played them even all game long. The Roadrunners led for nearly the entirety of the game, opening up their lead after Cal's putrid 13 turnover, 1 offensive rebound first half. Cal State Bakersfield shot just 2-for-11 on threes, or this could have been worse.

Cal's offense put up an impressive 1.05 PPP early in the season against Syracuse, but ever since then they've been a massive disappointment. They've failed to crack 1 PPP in six of ten games since, despite has a relatively soft schedule. It's not Tyrone Wallace's fault, because he's playing well, but they haven't gotten much from anybody else. David Kravish has really regressed from last season, for example.

With as bad as the WAC has been, a win like this puts Cal State Bakersfield into the conference title discussion. They entered this game 2-10, but they were 0-9 in games decided by seven points or less, so they were due some good luck in a close game. If they made the NCAA Tournament they'd very likely be a 16 seed, but they'd take that in a nanosecond. Since becoming a full Division I team in 2010 they haven't come particularly close to going Dancing.

Texas Southern Knocks Off Kansas State Kansas State absolutely gave this game away. They hit just 2 of 8 free throws in the final 70 seconds, and after Texas Southern had pulled within a point with a second to go, Jevon Thomas threw the inbounds pass away without it touching anybody. That gave Texas Southern the ball back underneath Kansas State's basket, which set up this beautiful game-winning play at the buzzer:
Jason Carter's game winner off a beautiful out-of-bounds play.
The SWAC recently ended a seven year losing straight against RPI Top 100 opponents, but Texas Southern in particular has been dangerous in the early going this season. They already took out Michigan State, and they also only lost by 1 point at Auburn. Mike Davis has this team playing really well, and potentially looking like the favorite in the SWAC title race.

Already with iffy losses to Long Beach State and Tennessee, and without a win over a likely RPI Top 50 opponent, the last thing Kansas State needed was this awful loss dragging on their resume all season long. They'll get a chance for a potential RPI Top 50 win against Georgia on New Year's Eve, but are going to have to go at least 10-8 in the Big 12 to earn an at-large bid. So far they've done nothing to suggest that they can get particularly close to ten wins in the Big 12.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Morning News: New Bracket, Undefeated Kentucky?, Georgetown Over Indiana, Gonzaga/BYU, And More

I have a bad feeling about this...
New Bracket Projection There are two significant changes in this week's bracket projection. First, Minnesota moves into the projected field, replacing Nebraska. Also, Texas is the new Big 12 favorite, replacing Kansas. For more details, and the full bracket, click the link.

Undefeated Kentucky? In retrospect, we should have seen this Kentucky/Louisville game coming. These teams have two of the better defenses that we've seen the past few years, and they in fact entered the game #1 (Kentucky at 23%) and #2 (Louisville at 24%) in the nation at defensive mid-range shooting in the nation. At the same time, both of these teams are mediocre at best in halfcourt offense. In this game, neither team got much in the way of easy offense. The two teams combined for 8 fast break points. Louisville made only 3 layups and 0 dunks all game long.

We have a tendency to treat any game with a high score as "fun" while any game with a low score as "ugly", but this game was a mixture of both. Both of these defenses played great, and deserve a lot of credit, but my goodness were there a lot of terrible shots as well. Louisville's Chris Jones, for example, was 3-for-15 from the field with nearly every shot being ill-advised. The Harrison twins were a horrible 3-for-16 combined, along with 7 turnovers to just 5 assists. Louisville had just 1 assist all game long, which wasn't at all a surprise with how many rushed off-balance shots they took early in the shot clock.

In a sense, this was an ideal game for Kentucky. They were able to dominate the glass (a 53.1 OR% compared to a 38.3 OR% for Louisville) and faced an opponent that couldn't hit a jump shot and was unwilling to work on offense to break down Kentucky's defense (34% of Louisville's shots came in the first ten seconds of the shot clock, with 90% of those being jump shots). Kentucky's defenders are insanely long, and if you don't work hard to get an open shot you're going to have a hand in your face every time. That's what Louisville faced here.

Coming out of this game, the narrative is Kentucky going undefeated. The general media attitude is summed up by Andy Katz:
But when people in the media say stuff like that, what they're really demonstrating is a lack of understanding of probability. To give you an example, let's say that Kentucky had a 95% chance of winning every game the rest of the way. A 95% chance of winning is really a one-sided affair (for example, Pomeroy gives Kentucky a 95% chance of winning their road game at Mississippi State, where he puts the spread at 16 points). Nobody in their right mind would pick a 95% favorite to lose a game. Yet a team that is a 95% favorite in every game has only a 40% chance of going 18-0. The odds are, over some 40 minute sample somewhere, that Kentucky is going to lose.

To be clear, I think Kentucky is the best team in the nation, and they have the best chance to go undefeated that any major conference team has had in a long time. But Pomeroy puts their odds of going 18-0 in SEC play at 24.2%, and if anything that's a little higher. Both the loss of Alex Poythress and Kentucky's good luck on opponent three-point shooting (currently 26.7%, ranked 10th in the nation) and two-point jump shooting (described above) suggest that Kentucky's level of play is more likely to decline a little bit than improve a little bit down the stretch. So could Kentucky be undefeated heading into the NCAA Tournament? Sure. They'll be a big favorite in every game prior to it. But the odds are quite high that they'll lose at least once.

Georgetown Comes Back To Take Out Indiana The Hoosiers offense was clicking on all cylinders for most of the game, but their defense continues to be a dumpster fire. When they went cold for a brief stretch in the second half Georgetown was able to get back in the game and take a lead. A couple of fluky Yogi Ferrell threes got Indiana back to overtime, but they eventually fell there.

Yogi Ferrell sending Indiana/Georgetown to OT one possession after banking in a three.

If Indiana had won this game they probably would have moved into the Top 25 on Monday, but that would have been almost as stupid as TCU being in the AP Top 25 this week. Indiana beat Butler, SMU and Pittsburgh, but none of those wins came outside the state of Indiana and they have yet to play a true road game, and their overall strength of schedule is currently ranked 322nd by Pomeroy. Despite that soft home schedule, they're still allowing 1.01 PPP, and their defense has probably been even worse than that. They've been lucky on opponent shooting, with opponents hitting just 58.8% at the line and 30.5% behind the arc. By the Pomeroy ratings they're easily the weakest defense in the Big Ten. Any game against a quality opponent where they're not shooting lights out they're probably going to lose. And that's why I don't see how one could reasonably project the Hoosiers as an NCAA Tournament team at this point.

Georgetown needed this win after suffering really close and tough losses to Wisconsin, Kansas and Butler. They are, in my opinion, Villanova's top competition in the Big East. But we did see in this Indiana game two of Georgetown's problems - fouling and defensive rebounding - coming to the fore again. They have a lot of offensive talent, but it seems like they spend every game struggling to keep their stars on the court and to clear the defensive glass. That has to improve for them to truly contend with Villanova.

Gonzaga Escapes BYU This was going to be the toughest game Gonzaga faced in conference play all season long, and they escaped with the win. That said, BYU was not at full strength here. Tyler Haws played injured and wasn't himself, though he did play for 33 minutes. Chase Fischer was also playing through an injury, and Nate Austin is still out with a hamstring injury. The Cougars got a lift instead from Kyle Collinsworth, who had a triple-double with 13 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.

The difference for Gonzaga was Kyle Wiltjer, who scored 24 points on 11-for-13 shooting and also gave Gonzaga a big front line that won the rebounding battle and forced BYU to play even bigger than they normally like to. Gonzaga is actually one of the tallest teams in the country.

Gonzaga is now a very, very heavy favorite to take the WCC regular season title. They'll be a significant favorite in every remaining game (they were even a 5.5 point favorite here), though under the same logic I used with Kentucky above it's still likely that some team somewhere will keep them from going 18-0.

This was a win BYU really had to have. They're a bubble quality team, but Stanford is the only team they've beaten with a real chance to finish in the RPI Top 50. Their only remaining chance will be taking out Gonzaga in Spokane, or in the WCC tournament (where most likely they won't meet until the final game anyway).

Semi Ojeleye To SMU Ojeleye was a very highly sought after high school recruit, but he could barely get on the court in 1.5 seasons at Duke and he will be taking his talents to Dallas. It's an interesting decision since some higher profile programs were after him, but Larry Brown has done a really fantastic job bringing in talented recruits to his program. Things haven't really gone according to plan so far this season, but Ojeleye will potentially be eligible for the second semester of next season.

Brandone Francis Returns For Florida In a surprising development, it looks like Brandone Francis has been cleared to play for Florida moving forward. He has returned to practice. He was arguably Florida's highest rated 2014 recruit, and he'll immediately move into the shooting guard/wing regular rotation. With Alex Murphy now eligible as well, and with Eli Carter working himself healthy, Florida could finally have their full roster ready to go just in time for SEC play.

The Gators were a disappointment in non-conference play (0-4 against likely NCAA Tournament opponents, with their best win coming over Yale), but they still have hopes of contending with Kentucky near the top of the SEC. History has shown that the Selection Committee will mostly ignore non-conference play for teams that play well in conference play and finish the season strong.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

W-11 BP68

Only 11 weeks until Selection Sunday, and only 3 weeks until I start the "full bubble", when I start eliminating potential bubble teams from at-large contention. The season is going by too quickly, like it always does.

Anyway, there is just one change to the makeup of the Field of 68 this week, with Minnesota moving in as an at-large team, replacing Nebraska. Another change is that Texas is my new pick as the Big 12 favorite, replacing Kansas.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)
2. Virginia
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Kansas
3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)

5. Florida
5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Georgetown

6. Northern Iowa
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. Oklahoma State
6. SMU

7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Stanford
7. Illinois

8. Syracuse
8. Iowa
8. Pittsburgh
8. Arkansas

9. Notre Dame
9. Colorado State
9. Michigan State
9. Butler

10. UCLA
10. Baylor
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. St. John's

11. Xavier
11. Providence
11. Michigan
11. Washington

12. Miami-Florida
12. Cincinnati
12. BYU
12. Minnesota
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UTEP (CONFERNCE USA)

12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DENVER (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Dayton, George Washington, Seton Hall, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Oregon, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, Davidson, Richmond, Rhode Island, Creighton, Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Boise State, UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Tulane, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, La Salle, UMass, Marquette, Penn State, Purdue, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

Friday, December 26, 2014

Morning News: George Washington Beats Wichita State, Hawaii Knocks Off Colorado, And Isaiah Whitehead Out

Not a long list of coaches who have done a better job than Benjy Taylor this season.
As there are no games today, expect to probably have no Morning News post tomorrow. But we did have some games yesterday, so let's talk about the most important action:

George Washington Knocks Off Wichita State Wichita State was shaky throughout the Diamond Head Classic. It does seem like weird things tend to happen at tournaments away from the Contiguous 48 states, so I'm not sure how meaningful Wichita State's struggles were, but they didn't look great this past week. The media narrative after this game was that George Washington's switch to the zone confused Wichita State's offense. I suppose that's true to a degree, but it's overblown. George Washington wasn't much better at getting to the rim than Wichita State was. The difference was that the Shockers were 1-for-15 on two-point jumpers. They certainly didn't get to the rim, or to the line, as much as they wanted to, but if they shot anything close to their season average on two-point jumpers they still would have escaped with a win.

This is a huge win for a George Washington team that is a sleeper at-large contender. Assuming that they take care of VMI, they'll end non-conference play 10-3 with wins over Wichita State and Colorado along with a bad loss to Penn State. The concern is that the only other likely RPI Top 50 opponent in conference play will be VCU. If they can win at least one of their two games against VCU and then get to 12-6 in Atlantic Ten play then that could be enough to get in. Anything less than 12-6 will be an issue with how poor the Atlantic Ten is perceived this season.

Wichita State is a borderline Top Ten quality team. The problem is, the Missouri Valley is not strong. Seton Hall is their only defeated opponent with a real shot to finish in the RPI Top 50, and Northern Iowa is their only conference opponent with a realistic chance to get there. So unless they go something like 27-3, it's going to be tough for them to earn anything better than a 4 or 5 seed. It's going to be easy to pick apart their resume for lack of quality wins.

Hawaii Upsets Colorado If there's one thing we've learned this season it's that you want to avoid playing Hawaii in Hawaii. They've faced four Top 100 teams as home this season, and they knocked off Pittsburgh, Nebraska and now Colorado, while taking Wichita State to overtime. It's too small of a sample size to draw reasonable narratives from, but there is something to opponents traveling thousands of miles and spending time on the beach while Hawaii stays at home. That said, Hawaii played about as well as they could here, hitting 9-for-18 behind the arc and forcing as many steals (9) as committed turnovers. Colorado was a rough 5-for-17 behind the arc.

Colorado is a bubble-quality team, but they've had a brutal non-conference performance. They went 7-5 with zero quality wins to go with a bad loss to Hawaii and a potentially bad loss to Wyoming. It's going to be very difficult for them to earn an at-large bid now unless they reach at least 11-7 in Pac-12 play.

Hawaii continues to improve under Benjy Taylor, who has done an absolutely fantastic job. Depending on how much you want to value these Diamond Head Classic performances, Hawaii is suddenly looking like a legitimate contender in the Big West, which seemed utterly implausible preseason. Coach of the Year awards are stupid, and they're handed out via stupid narratives, but it's hard to find many coaches in the nation that have gotten more of their roster so far this season than Benjy Taylor.

Isaiah Whitehead Will Be Out For A Few Weeks Seton Hall's second leading scorer (11.9 ppg) and leading assist man (3.4 apg) looks like he'll be out for a few weeks with a stress fracture. Whitehead is a player who could really use the game reps, as he's a super talented freshman who is still finding his game at the college level. His shot selection has not been great so far, and it's why his offensive efficiency stats aren't yet great, despite the good counting stats.

This is bad timing for the team as well, as Seton Hall was going to have a chance to really prove themselves. They are well loved by the computers, but due to a soft schedule only really have a home over George Washington to brag about. Home games against St. John's and Villanova to start Big East play were going to be very important tests. They'll need to go at least 9-9 in Big East play to earn an at-large bid, so if they don't win at least one of those two games they could dig themselves a serious hole with road games against Xavier and Creighton coming up next.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Morning News: UNLV Stuns Arizona, Stanford Knocks Off Texas, And George Washington Wins Ugly

Not a ton of games last night, but we did have a court storming.
UNLV Stuns Arizona Stanley Johnson has been the hero for much of this season, but he had a final minute to forget here. With Arizona down by a point in the final 40 seconds, Stanley Johnson missed a tough layup, and then on Arizona's final possession dribbled off his foot. In between, Brandon Ashley had a chance for a potential game-winning three-pointer that bounced around and missed (there was a possibility that UNLV interfered while it was bouncing, though I didn't get a conclusive look at it). Anytime a game is this close it's going to come down to a ball bouncing around in and out, though, which is why media narratives are so fluid. We were one bounce of the ball away from "Arizona always finds a way to win close games", but instead we went with "Stanley Johnson made freshman mistakes". So it goes.

If there's one worrying thing that came out of this game for Arizona it's that their depth isn't great. With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson fouling out and Kaleb Tarczewski saddled with four fouls (which turned him into a very tentative and passive player), Arizona's defense took a huge step back. But please, don't overreact to a single game on the road against a decent mid-major. Arizona is still a very good team and the clear Pac-12 favorite.

UNLV has had some ugly performances in the early going this season, and this performance kind of came out of nowhere. That said, this is an extremely young UNLV team, and it's not crazy to think that they'll get better as the season goes along.

Stanford Knocks Off Texas This game was tight almost the entire way, though Stanford did have more chances down the stretch in regulation. The Anthony Brown offensive foul was questionable, and Stanford still had the chance to hold for the final shot of regulation but missed. Anthony Brown and Chasson Randle came up big in overtime, though, and Stanford collected a massive victory.

What really stood out for Stanford was their ability to win the paint battle against the massive Texas front line, which is something that would have been impossible to predict. Stanford fought to a draw in the rebounding battle and held Texas to just 7-for-14 shooting on layups and dunks (both teams had 20 paint points). Stanford is a really big team, but prior to this game they hadn't really shown themselves to be a great rebounding or paint defensive team. It's possible that this game is a sign of something to come, though it could also just end up another weird Finals Week result.

The reality for Texas is that a result like this, while bad, doesn't mean a whole lot. They'll play so many games against quality opponents in Big 12 play that this game won't matter much in March. This game means a lot more for a Stanford team that has a decent chance to end up on the Tournament bubble. It's their first quality win of the season and it will go a long way toward cancelling out that DePaul loss. They still have a home game against UConn coming, though it won't be until January 17th. They'll open Pac-12 play at home against the Washington schools.

George Washington Wins Ugly Over Colorado Barely a week after a bad loss to Penn State, George Washington was really in need of a win here, and this one will fall into the "I guess we'll take it" category. It was ugly, but it was a win. The two teams combined to hit 10% of their threes and to have a 38.5 eFG%. George Washington needed just 0.91 PPP to win.

It's impossible to find much reason why one team won or loss this game, but the win is crucial for GW. It gives them their first win against a likely RPI Top 100 opponent and gives them a chance for a real big win on Christmas Day against Wichita State. Colorado, on the other hand, is now 0-4 against Pomeroy Top 100 opponents. They just don't generate easy offense ever. Askia Booker isn't good enough to play hero ball all game long. The Buffaloes should hang around close to the bubble all season long, but there's no way at this point that you can project them as a Tournament team.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Morning News: Temple Crushes Kansas, Wisconsin Handles California, Miami Continues To Regress, And More

Fran Dunphy and Temple basketball about the drop the hip-hop album of the decade.
Temple Crushes Kansas I talk often about precisely why major conference teams should avoid road games against mid-majors. The media and the Selection Committee simply don't properly value the difference between home and road, and our obsession with things like "Record vs RPI Top 50" doesn't take into account the fact that winning on the road vs team #101 is always going to be harder than winning at home vs team #49. In fact, coming into this game the Sagarin ratings had Temple as only the 134th best team in the nation, but equated a road game against them with a home game against St. John's, who are currently 17th in the AP Poll. Yet nobody would have freaked out about a home loss to St. John's like a road loss to Temple.

That said, it's one thing to lose to Temple on the road, and it's quite another to get absolutely run off the court. Temple dominated the paint, shooting 17-for-22 there while Kansas was an atrocious 9-for-32. Kansas wasn't quite as bad at the rim as they were against Kentucky but, of course, Temple isn't Kentucky. Kansas actually is an efficient offensive team for the season (1.08 PPP against the toughest schedule that any Power 5 team has faced), but they do lack a go-to scorer for when things get tough. In flashes, Cliff Alexander looks like he could be that guy, but he hasn't shown it remotely consistently.

As always, it's a mistake to overreact to single game samples. Kansas just beat four consecutive Top 25 quality opponents. This was a terrible game, but it's just a single game. After all, just two seasons ago Kansas lost to a TCU team that went 2-16 in Big 12 play and still went on to earn a 1 seed.

It's been a tough season for Temple, but it's worth noting that they just gained two very important transfers: Devin Coleman from Clemson and Jesse Morgan from UMass. It's only been two games so far, but Morgan in particular has looked like Temple's best all-around basketball player. Considering how weak the AAC looks, is it really crazy to think that Temple could make a run for 3rd or 4th place in the final standings now that they're at full strength?

Wisconsin Handles California Wisconsin just sucked the life out of this game. They committed just 6 turnovers and 12 fouls while allowing just 5 offensive rebounds and holding California to 38% two-point shooting. While we expect this Wisconsin team to score, what has really impressed this season (aside from Duke's fluky jump shooting day) has been the Badgers defense. 10 of 12 opponents have been held below 1 PPP.

The Badgers have a very back-loaded Big Ten schedule, so don't be surprised if they don't lose a game for a little while. The final few weeks of their regular season are brutal, though, so if some team keeps it close in the standings throughout January than the Badgers will have to sweat out that Big Ten title.

Assuming that they beat Cal St Bakersfield, Cal will finish non-conference play 11-2, but an unconvincing 11-2. There's no shame in losing to Wisconsin or Texas, but their win over Syracuse is their only one over a likely RPI Top 50 foe. We just don't know much about how good this team really is. They open Pac-12 play with a very interesting home game against Washington on January 2nd.

Miami Continues To Regress This game was actually tied at halftime, but Providence opened the second half on a 15-5 run and they eventually pulled away. More than anything, Miami just couldn't hit a jump shot. They hit 5-for-27 behind the arc, as their shooting has crashed back down to Earth. They hit 39% or better behind the arc in six of seven games in November, but 30% or worse in four of five games in December. As always, the truth is in the middle. They're not as bad as they've looked the last few games, but they're also not as good as they looked in November.

LaDontae Henton continues to be the best scorer in the nation that casual fans haven't heard of. He poured in 25 points on 10-for-19 shooting here. Providence is so much better when Kris Dunn is playing well, and he had a monster 15 point, 13 assist performance. Still, Providence has been inconsistent in non-conference play, and they enter Big East play with a lot of work left to do. It's hard to see them making the NCAA Tournament with anything less than a 10-8 Big East record.

Miami has crashed back to Earth, losing three of their last four games and plummeting in the computer ratings. They have wins over Florida and Illinois, but also losses to Eastern Kentucky and Green Bay. They open ACC play with Virginia and Duke making up two of their first three games, so if they don't get the ship righted soon they'll be in early trouble.

Nebraska Falls To Hawaii It's always hard to play on the road at Hawaii (the other Power 5 to head to Hawaii this season, Pittsburgh, also lost), but Nebraska's run of putrid offense continued here. They've failed to score 1 PPP in four of their last five games, with the only exception being Incarnate Word. Once again it was ugly hero ball from Terran Petteway (4-for-12 from the field), as the team finished with just 7 assists on 20 made shots. As a team, Nebraska has assisted only only 47.4% of made baskets this season. Aside from Penn State, that's the worst in the Big Ten.

Now with two bad losses to certain RPI 100+ opponents and zero quality wins (unless you count Cincinnati), Nebraska's suddenly looking at quite the uphill battle just to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Considering the perception of the Big Ten (and the fact that the ESPN will apparently put up a graphic showing bad losses by Big Ten teams during every college basketball game all season long, even though the ACC and Big East have just as many)), it's hard to see the Cornhuskers getting in unless they get to 11-7 in conference play.

Hawaii has done a good job circling the wagons after all their offseason turmoil. This could have been a really ugly season and instead they should finish respectably in the Big West. But they're still a bit beyond the fringes of the conference title race.

Dwayne Polee Collapses In probably the scariest moment of the season so far, San Diego State's Dwayne Polee was playing defense last night when he staggered a couple of steps and fell on his face. His parents rushed to the court while paramedics attended to him for close to 15 minutes. The good news was that he was awake and alert as they carted him off the floor, fist-bumping teammates along the way. I feel like it's in bad taste to include video of the incident in a post when I usually just show videos of buzzer beaters or dunks, but you can find it on the internet if you search. At this point it's too early to speculate on exactly what happened or how his health will be going forward. I'll try to provide an update when I get one.

Oklahoma Scores 39 Straight Points Believe it or not (actually, it's not that hard to believe) the 39 straight points that Oklahoma scored against Weber State were a Division I record. The previous record was 37 straight points by Utah State against Idaho on February 15th, 2006. Now, Weber State only lost by 34 points, meaning that they won the portions of the game aside from the 39-0 run. So they've got that going for them, which is nice.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Morning News: Virginia Destroys Harvard, Maryland Beats Oklahoma St, Georgia/Seton Hall, North Texas/Creighton, And Montrezl Harrell

No.
Virginia Destroys Harvard When Kentucky did this a day earlier to UCLA, the media fell over itself to declare Kentucky the best team ever. And Kentucky is probably the best team in the country, but this performance by Virginia was equally as strong. Harvard is (in my opinion) a better team than UCLA, and the one field goal that Virginia held them to in the first half tied the all-time NCAA record, done most recently by Northern Illinois on January 26th, 2013.

Interestingly, Virginia's defensive profile is really similar to Kentucky. The one significant difference is that Kentucky forces significantly more turnovers, but Virginia is actually slightly better at protecting the rim (40% opponent FG% at the rim) than Kentucky (42%) and both are excellent at defending mid-range jumpers as well. Both Virginia and Kentucky are putting up staggeringly good defensive stats as teams this season. Kentucky is the better team overall primarily because they're stronger offensively, but the question is why nobody knows about this Virginia team. Ask a casual college basketball fan if they can even name a player on the roster. Who on Virginia is getting any hype for any major awards?

Virginia fans have gotten used to this sort of disrespect during the Tony Bennett era. The slow tempo means that they don't put up a lot of counting stats, and that's particularly true on defense where they excel at rotations and positioning more than a team like Kentucky that relies more heavily on steals and blocks. There are no easily accessible statistics that rank teams by defensive positioning. Players who get the steals and blocks tend to be the ones that win defensive awards, even if those stats are wildly misleading.

Who is the ACC favorite? It's too close to call. Virginia, Louisville and Duke are all in a tight battle. But Duke has the misfortune of not getting either Virginia or Louisville at home. The ACC scheduling gods did them no favors.

The silver lining for Harvard is the same thing I said for UCLA yesterday. Realistically they knew they weren't going to win this game anyway, and in March nobody will care if they lost by 20 or 49. Next Sunday's game at Arizona State will be crucial, because it's going to be really tough for them to earn an at-large bid with a loss there.

Maryland Defeats Oklahoma State Maryland has endured really well without Dez Wells, who is still out injured, though he's hoping to return to practice by the end of the week. This is a very impressive road victory over an Oklahoma State team that entered 9-1 and was just around a week from a road thrashing of Memphis. Maryland got off to a fast shooting start (6-for-15 behind the arc in the first half) and hung on after a late Cowboys rally (a 13-5 run in the final three minutes).

Maryland has been quietly impressive so far. Assuming that they take care of Oakland on Saturday, they'll finish non-conference play 12-1 with wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State and no bad losses. They seem like a safe Tournament team, and they could make a run for second place in a Big Ten that is wide open after Wisconsin.

Oklahoma State is loved by the computers (even after this loss they're 23rd in Pomeroy and 34th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR), but it's come against a cupcake schedule and they have yet to beat a likely RPI Top 50 opponent. As always, take computer ratings generated primarily from games against cupcakes with a big grain of salt. Of course, Oklahoma State will get a quality opponent almost every night in the Big 12, so this problem will resolve itself. Either they'll win games or they'll drop in the computers.

Georgia Smokes Seton Hall Seton Hall came into this game a mystery at 9-1 and with only a close road loss at Wichita State. They were a mystery because they still hadn't beaten a likely RPI Top 50 opponent. A road game at Georgia was going to be easily their toughest test so far other than the Wichita State game. And, well, it didn't go according to plan. Seton Hall hit just 25% of their jump shots for the day. Their 32.4 eFG% was their worst shooting day since February 4th, 2012. Sterling Gibbs shot 1-for-11 alone, and nobody on the team hit double digits in points.

It's not fair to give up on Seton Hall because of one bad game, but they enter Big East play with something to prove. A home game against St. John's in their Big East opener will be a really interesting test for both teams.

Georgia's defense has been feisty this season. They've held six of nine opponents to under 0.95 PPP. With wins over Seton Hall and Colorado to go with an iffy loss to Georgia Tech, they're a sleeper bubble team. A road game at a struggling Kansas State squad on New Year's Eve will be an interesting opportunity for them.

North Texas Upsets Creighton Just a few weeks ago, Creighton was ranked in the AP Poll. But as always, you shouldn't overreact to a single 40 minute sample size (in their case a home upset of Oklahoma). That game has turned out to be a fluke, or at least it seems to be so far. Creighton now has bad losses to Tulsa, Ole Miss, North Texas and (potentially) St. Mary's to go with the wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska. They'll realistically have to get to at least 10-8 in Big East play to earn an at-large bid, and that seems unlikely right now.

North Texas got lucky shooting the ball here (6-for-11 on threes, compared to 26% for Creighton), but this is a huge program victory. They struggled badly in their first season in Conference USA (0-8 vs the RPI Top 100), but this win might propel them to a stronger effort in Year #2.

Montrezl Harrell Earns A One Game Suspension As most people expected, Montrezl Harrell will face a one game suspension for his punch of a Western Kentucky player. I think even Kentucky fans want Louisville to be at full strength for their upcoming game. The Wildcats won't get much competition in SEC play, so it will be nice to see them have to play one true road game against a legitimate, full strength Top Ten foe.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Morning News: New Bracket, "Biggest Upset Of The Decade?", Syracuse Heartbreaker, UNC Over Ohio St, And Much More

If there's any player in college basketball who reminds me of Russell Westbrook, it's Demetrius Jackson

New Bracket Projection It's a winter tradition. For the first time this season the tail end of the at-large teams projected to get in feel weak. That said, Washington does move into the bracket, knocking out Dayton. In addition, the two St. Francis schools flipped as NEC favorites. More details are at the link.

A New Biggest Upset Of The Decade? When we found out Branden Dawson would only likely miss two games, I called it a big break for Michigan State since their next two games were against cupcakes. Instead, Michigan State might just have suffered the biggest loss of the last decade. Of course, I awarded that title to Michigan's loss to NJIT a few weeks ago, and this loss doesn't seem to resonate in the same way in the public consciousness. In February when announcers are analyzing Minnesota's bubble case, we're going to hear "The Big Ten is down this year, Michigan lost to NJIT!" It's just going to be the upset we never stop hearing about. Yet really, in every way, this loss to Texas Southern is worse, for a few reasons.

First of all, when one team pulls a crazy upset you expect them to have a crazy lucky shooting day. NJIT shot an insane 11-for-17 behind the arc to knock off Michigan. But here? Texas Southern hit just 4-for-12. Instead, they were getting into the paint, scoring 16 layups or dunks, and they actually outscored the Spartans 36-to-32 in the paint while also committing just 11 turnovers and forcing 7 steals. While Michigan outplayed NJIT and simply got out-shot, Michigan State really did honestly play more or less to a draw at home against Texas Southern.

Also, the SWAC's futility against major conference foes is well known. They were 1-35 against RPI Top 100 teams as a conference last season, and that was actually a good season. The year before, Southern University broke a 237 game losing streak for the SWAC against RPI Top 100 opponents which went back a full 7 years. If Michigan State ends up near the bubble, this loss should kill them as much as the NJIT loss will kill Michigan.

Syracuse Loses A Heartbreaker Villanova was tied 0-0 in the early moments of this game, and they did not have a lead or pull back into a tie again until the final few seconds of regulation. They had to claw back from a 15 point deficit, as well as a 5 point deficit with around 15 seconds to go. But they got to overtime on a Josh Hart three, followed by a trap and a steal, and then a JayVaughn Pinkston layup. You can watch the entire final sequence below:
In overtime, Villanova was able to grab an early lead and hit eight straight free throws down the stretch. Ryan Arcidiacono too often gets the "gritty white guy" tropes from announcers, but in this game he really did do the little things. He scored just 3 points but had 9 assists to 0 turnovers, including assists on both of those final baskets in regulation. Villanova is now 11-0 and will likely go 13-0 in non-conference play with some quality victories. If they can sweep the Big East titles they will almost certainly earn a 1 seed.

This is a crushing loss for a Syracuse team that has had an incredibly frustrating non-conference season. They are 6-4, and while none of their losses are bad they only really have a win over Iowa worth bragging about. The good news for the Orange is that they're in the ACC, where they'll have a ton of chances for quality scalps. I still think they're a Tournament quality team, and a 10-8 ACC record will probably be sufficient.

North Carolina Holds Off Ohio State The Buckeyes built themselves quite the deficit here, falling behind by 16 points in the first half and by as many as 18 points in the second half. They managed to fight hard and close it enough that they were actually fouling in the final 30 seconds, but it wasn't enough. All things considered, though, this wasn't a poor performance by Ohio State. North Carolina historically shoots more two-point jumpers than any other team in the nation, but the difference here was that they were actually hitting them, hitting 13-for-20 (65%) on two-point jumpers. For comparison, UNC was only hitting 43% of two-point jumpers for the season. And you can't blame Ohio State's defense, which held North Carolina to just 14-for-30 (47%) shooting around the rim.

Ohio State has had a bizarre schedule in that they played two elite teams (North Carolina and Louisville) and lost competitive games to both, while blowing out a whole bunch of weak opponents in their other games. The closest thing to a decent win was a home victory over Marquette. They seem like a pretty good team, but it's just so hard to tell. They'll still be a mystery when they start Big Ten play.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has faced a really tough schedule. Other than Kansas, they've likely faced the toughest strength of schedule of any Power 5 team in non-conference play. They're just 8-3, but it's an awfully impressive resume. Even though I still think they're a step below Duke/Louisville/Virginia at the top of the ACC, they're still in a very strong position for a 2-4 seed on Selection Sunday.

Is Washington Due to Regress? Washington was already up to 16th in both human polls before pulling this big neutral court upset of Oklahoma to move to 10-0. With Lorenzo Romar entering this season on the hot seat, this Washington team suddenly looks like they might move into the Top 10 in the human polls in the next week or two. And certainly Washington is playing much better than we all expected preseason, particularly defensively. But is Washington due to regress?

If the question is whether Washington will regress from being a top ten team then, yes, of course. They're not even a top ten team now. Even after this win over Oklahoma they're just 34th in Pomeroy and 37th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Also, they're been lucky in opponent shooting (opponents are hitting a brutal 26.6% behind the arc this season, 6th worst in the nation). And this has all come against a soft schedule, ranked 306th so far by Pomeroy and featuring just one true road game (at a bad Seattle team). So while some Washington fans are getting ready to buy their NCAA Tournament tickets already, they're the poster child for a team due to regress, and I still expect them to finish the season around the bubble. That said, this win did move them into my projected bracket for the first time this season.

Oklahoma will finish non-conference play with just wins over UCLA and Butler, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem. They're a very good team that will have plenty of opportunities against quality opponents in Big 12 play. They're still on pace for a good seed in March.


Montrezl Harrell Throws A Punch, Is Ejected Louisville had more trouble than expected with Western Kentucky, but the real story from this game was Montrezl Harrell throwing a punch and getting himself ejected, and actually hurting a referee in the chaos. You can judge it for yourself, as I've embedded the video below. I'd expected Harrell to be suspended for a game, but the guess at this point is that he's likely to be back for the game after that, which is the Kentucky game. Certainly I think that with as weak as the SEC is, we'd like to see Kentucky have to beat a full-strength Louisville team.

Indiana Upsets Butler Primarily this result was simply about Indiana shooting the ball far better (47% on threes compared to 19% for Butler), but the fact that Butler got out-rebounded was pretty surprising. Hanner Mosquera-Perea has really impressed this season, and he controlled the paint with 8 points, 9 rebounds and 4 blocks. Kam Woods was, for the most part, neutralized.

Indiana is starting to make a real at-large case. They have wins over Butler, SMU and Pittsburgh, with only one bad loss (Eastern Washington). If they can upset Georgetown in Madison Square Garden on December 27th then they'll really be in good shape.

Butler has now lost two straight and hasn't quite looked like the same team since returning from the Bahamas. They've got a nasty start to Big East play as well, going on the road to Villanova and St. John's. Don't be at all surprised if they're on the Tourney bubble in early March.

Michigan Falters Late Against SMU Michigan's run of misery continued here. Once again their shooting was poor, particularly down the stretch, when they were outscored 17-3. During that stretch, they were an ugly 1-for-11 from the field, including 1-for-8 behind the arc. For the game, Michigan shot 8-for-36 (22%) behind the arc. Overall, Michigan had a 38.9 eFG% compared to a 50.0 eFG% for SMU, marking the fifth straight game that Michigan has gotten out-shot.

Eventually Michigan is going to shoot the ball better. Unlike the Arizona game, it's pretty clear that Michigan wasn't "out-played" here, they just got out-shot. But their offense continues to be too tentative, and you have to wonder if the poor shooting is part of the reason for the loss of confidence.

This is a crucial win for SMU, marking likely what will end up their best non-conference win. Markus Kennedy didn't do much in his first game eligible (5 points and 3 rebounds) but that will change as he gets back in the groove of things. SMU probably needs to get to 12-6 in the AAC to feel good about their at-large chances, but they should be able to get there.

Iowa Goes Cold Against Northern Iowa This was an ugly offensive performance from Iowa. They had a 30.4 eFG%, 44 points and 0.76 PPP. All three of those are lows for Iowa not just for this season but for last season as well. The last time they outdid any of those three numbers was April 4th, 2013, when their eFG% was just 29.7 eFG% against Baylor. Iowa's shooting stats have plummeted across the board this season. It has to be partially a combination of reduced talent but also some poor luck. It's hard to see some of these guys continue to shoot so poorly.

If Iowa gets past North Florida they'll finish non-conference play with a win over North Carolina and no bad losses, but without a particularly impressive won-loss record. They'll likely need to get to 10-8 in Big Ten play to be confident that they're earning an at-large bid.

This is Northern Iowa's first win against a likely RPI Top 50 opponents, but they're 10-1 with gaudy looking computer numbers. The Missouri Valley is a tough league to build a resume in this season, but don't be stunned if Northern Iowa ends up topping Wichita State. The gap between the two teams isn't particularly large.

Kentucky Annihilates UCLA Normally a Kentucky home win over UCLA wouldn't crack a Morning News post on a Sunday morning since, I mean, what did anybody expect? But this was a staggering level of domination. Kentucky led 24-0 at one point, and led 41-7 at halftime. This was as good as Kentucky can look, shooting a white hot 12-for-26 behind the arc while holding UCLA to 5-for-21 shooting on dunks and layups. Kentucky's defense is always going to be elite, but it's when their jump shots are going in that they look like the clear best team in the nation.

The good news for UCLA is that nobody expected them to win this game, and nobody is going to care what the score of this game was on Selection Sunday. But at 0-4 against likely RPI Top 100 foes (and 8-0 against like RPI 100+ foes), UCLA has work left to do to impress. They'll have a tough road game on December 28th against Alabama, but regardless of that result will need some big scalps in Pac-12 play. They don't get a home game against Arizona, which is an unfortunate break.

VCU Handles Cronin-less Cincinnati Mick Cronin had a health scare, suffering an unruptured aneuryism. For now, he's out indefinitely, and will have to be cleared by doctors to return. It's hard to know whether his absence affected his team here, because their offense has been fairly awful against everybody lately, but the Bearcats were very ineffective here. They had a 36.1 eFG% and scored just 0.78 PPP.

Cincinnati had to get at least one win out of their back-to-back San Diego State/VCU home games, and they did get that one win, but they still are going to have a ton of work to do to earn an at-large bid out of an AAC that will not get much respect. A road upset of NC State on December 30th would go a long way toward easing their burdens.

VCU is done playing quality non-conference opponents, and they finish with wins over Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Oregon and Tennessee, along with an iffy loss to Old Dominion. It's fine, but not super impressive. With the way the Atlantic Ten is perceived, they have the same problem Cincinnati does. They'll need a good conference record (12-6 or better) just to be sure they make the Tournament.

Deonte Burton Transfers To Iowa State Fred Hoiberg continues to pick up every key transfer in the nation, or so it seems. This time it's Deonte Burton, who had been scoring 6.1 points per game off the bench for Marquette as a sophomore this season. He will expect to become eligible at the end of the fall semester next season, and should expect to immediately slot into Iowa State's rotation as a wing.

Auburn Upsets Xavier This was a game well below the radar of casual fans, but it could be a crucial loss for Xavier.  It's always a mistake to try to draw conclusions from games that go two overtimes, as both teams always have multiple chances to win, but Xavier has now played three close games and lost all of them. That bad luck is why, despite being in the Top 30 of both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, Xavier's resume is actually pretty poor. Their best win came over Alabama and they have iffy/bad losses to Auburn, Long Beach State and UTEP. They're going to likely have to get to at least 10-8 in Big East play to make the tourney.

BYU Beats Stanford BYU nearly gave this game away. They led by 13 points with under 3:30 to go, but their defense absolutely disappeared down the stretch (even by BYU standards), and they also committed a few turnovers, giving Stanford the ball back down by 2 points with plenty of time to set up a shot. But as often happens in these end-of-game situations, Stanford stopped doing what was working well (moving the ball quickly with the pass) and went with hero-ball, sending Chasson Randle around a high screen to set up a contested 23 foot shot that he missed with around 8 seconds still left.

The fact that this was an ugly win doesn't matter for BYU, because it was a win that they had to have. It was their final real chance for an RPI Top 50 win in non-conference play. They also get a likely RPI Top 100 opponent in their final non-conference game when UMass comes to town on Tuesday.

Stanford has come up just short against quality opponents this season, and their resume is actually looking pretty ugly. They don't have a single quality win and they have a bad loss to DePaul. Unless they pull a stunning road upset at Texas on Tuesday, they're going to have a ton of work to do in Pac-12 play.

W-12 BP68

This is the first time all season long that the tail end of the at-large bids have felt weak. It's actually later than usual this season. You can look at a team like Cincinnati that probably won't earn an at-large bid but just doesn't have an obvious replacement. You can argue for a team like Minnesota that is so well liked by the computers, but computer numbers put up against cupcakes always have to be looked at with suspicion.

Washington did move into the Field of 68, knocking out the Dayton team that had two key players booted off the team this past week. The other change to the Field of 68 came in the NEC, where the St. Francis teams swapped places. St. Francis-PA is now the projected favorite, replacing St. Francis Brooklyn.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia
2. Texas

3. Louisville
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State

5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
5. Florida
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Georgetown

6. Oklahoma State
6. Northern Iowa
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. SMU

7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Illinois
7. Syracuse

8. Iowa
8. Stanford
8. Pittsburgh
8. Arkansas

9. Colorado State
9. Notre Dame
9. Miami-Florida
9. Michigan State

10. Butler
10. UCLA
10. Baylor
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Xavier
11. St. John's
11. BYU
11. Michigan

12. Providence
12. Washington
12. Nebraska
12. Cincinnati
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UTEP (CONFERNCE USA)

13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DENVER (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Dayton, Creighton, Seton Hall, Indiana, Minnesota, California, Colorado, Oregon, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Tulsa, Georgia Tech, Davidson, George Washington, Richmond, Rhode Island, Purdue, Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Houston, Temple, Tulane, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, UMass, St. Bonaventure, Marquette, Penn State,Texas Tech, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, UNLV, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Morning News: Miami Debacle, Arizona Survives UTEP, And Historic Defensive Futility In Denver

Vince Hunter played well, but couldn't be on the court for the end of this game.
Miami... Sigh. This was a "one of those days" type games for Miami. Everything that could go wrong ended up going wrong. Eastern Kentucky shot out of their minds (14-for-26 behind the arc) while Miami was ice cold (8-for-27). At the same time, Eastern Kentucky dominated inside, finishing with a 24-to-6 scoring advantage in the paint. Rebounding? Eastern Kentucky dominated that also, and also had a far higher assist rate and a far better turnover rate. This was just a complete and unmitigated disaster for Miami. In fact, the last time Miami lost a game by more points was on January 31st, 2007, when they lost by 41 points to a really good North Carolina team that had the Hansbrough-Lawson-Green-Ellington core that would eventually go on to win a national championship. And again... this was Eastern Kentucky.

To put this in perspective, this was both Miami's worst offense (0.80 PPP) and defensive (1.31 PPP) performance of the season. This was the worst defensive performance for Miami since allowing 1.35 PPP to North Carolina on January 23rd, 2008. This offensive performance was only their worst since scoring 0.72 PPP against Virginia on February 26th. Though I'll repeat... this was Eastern Kentucky.

Now, here's where I walk Miami fans off the ledge a little: We can say pretty confidently that this will be Miami's worst performance of the season. A team is never as bad as they look on their worst day. The Hurricanes were a bit overrated in the Top 25 polls (I never had them higher than an 8 seed in my projected bracket) and they're regressing to the mean somewhat. Also, Eastern Kentucky isn't that bad of a team. For all the jokes that I made in the last two paragraphs, the reality is that Eastern Kentucky is one of the favorites in the Ohio Valley Conference, and they are actually in the RPI Top 100 for the time being (though the odds are that they'll eventually drop out).

The Hurricanes will take on Providence at the Barclay's Center on Monday. Win that game and take care of business against the College of Charleston and they end non-conference play with a solid resume (11-2 with wins over Florida, Illinois and Providence to go with losses to Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky). Even at 9-9 in ACC play they'll have a pretty good chance to get in, and they should be close to a lock at 10-8. So if Miami can burn the game tape from this one and get back to the team they had been, they'll be fine.

Arizona Survives UTEP It shouldn't be too surprising that UTEP kept this game close. There is nothing that the college basketball media world underrates more than homecourt advantage, and UTEP was at home here. Via the Sagarin ratings, a road game at UTEP is approximately equivalent to a home game against Villanova, and nobody would be surprised at all to see any team in the nation struggle with a home game against Villanovaa. And UTEP played tough, refusing to give up late. Despite being down by ten points with just over three minutes to play they actually made a game of it to the final seconds. Lew Stallworth had a three-pointer with around 15 seconds left that would have pulled UTEP within a single point, but he missed.

This could have potentially been a coming out game for Vince Hunter, who has quietly become one of the better big men in the entire nation. He was the one UTEP player with the ability to go toe-to-toe with Arizona's front line. But he was saddled with foul trouble, fouling out with more than eight minutes to go, though he did still manage to put up an impressive 18 points and 12 rebounds. For Arizona, Stanley Johnson was again a menace on both ends of the court, finishing with 17 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals.

Arizona continues to win close games against quality opponents. They are now 12-0, but four of their five wins over likely RPI Top 100 opponents have come by five points or less. This Arizona team is still very good, of course, but they've also been lucky. They're obviously in the driver's seat for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can sweep the Pac-12 titles. Utah will likely be their top rival.

UTEP could have made some at-large noise with the upset here, but realistically they're going to need to win Conference USA's automatic bid. In my opinion they're the current favorite, but not by a wide margin. Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, Old Dominion and others will all provide tough tests.

Historic Defensive Futility In Denver To say that neither Denver or Colorado State could stop each other is an understatement. Denver shot 17-for-31 on threes and committed only 7 turnovers yet still lost. Colorado State piled on with a 67.0 eFG% while also rebounding 63% of their own misses. Denver nearly pulled this one out in the final minute, but Colorado State hit enough free throws to stay ahead. But what makes this game fascinating, besides the fact that Colorado State is a potential bubble team that avoided a loss, are the offensive statistics.

If we look at games just between Division I opponents, Denver and Colorado State had the third and fourth highest PPP performances of the entire season. In fact, if you go back to last season, only six teams all season long scored more than the 1.53 PPP that Denver scored in a loss here. In fact, I can search efficiency stats back through the 1996-97 season, and I could not find another team that scored as many PPP in a loss. The next best that I could find was TCU scoring 1.49 PPP while losing an 89-88 game to UNLV in the 2008 Mountain West tournament.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Morning news: Duke Beats UConn, Branden Dawson Update And Minnesota Adds Diedhiou

Justise Winslow made the defensive play of the game last night.

Duke Beats UConn Duke's shots weren't going down like they have for much of this season. They hit just 24% of their jump shots, compared to 59% in their big win over Wisconsin, and their season average of 39%. But they impressed here defensively, with Justise Winslow in particular making a number of explosive plays. They had 7 steals and 5 blocks and held UConn to just a 45.4 eFG% and 0.82 PPP.

This Duke team is much more well-rounded than previous incarnations, and I think that's going to make them much less vulnerable to upset by inferior foes. Even when their jump shots don't fall they can still beat good teams with paint scoring, rebounding and defense.

UConn is just 1-4 against Pomeroy Top 100 opponents, meaning that their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is an ugly 95th, which is why you're starting to hear a lot of media talk about them missing the Tourney. But they're better than their resume. Two of those losses, of course, came on three-pointers from the far corner of Gampel Pavilion. They're still a Tourney quality team, and they should still get in.

That said, with the AAC being down, the Huskies are going to need a gaudy won-loss record in conference play. They'll need to go 12-6 or better, and perhaps even 13-5 if they can't collect a quality non-conference win. That win over Dayton, unfortunately, is going to be devalued by March with two key players kicked off the roster. UConn fans definitely need to root for SMU and Cincinnati to separate themselves from the rest of the league as well, to give the appearance of quality challengers, so UConn's gaudy conference record doesn't get dismissed with "Yeah, but who did they beat?" like Memphis used to get dismissed in Conference USA.

Branden Dawson To Miss Just Two Games If this turns out to be true, it's a huge break for Michigan State. Their next two games are against cupcakes at home, meaning that Dawson will not be needed. That said, injuries don't always work out as planned, so don't pencil in Dawson as 100% healthy for their Big Ten opener on December 30th quite yet.

Minnesota Adds Gaston Diedhiou Diedhiou has gained his eligibility and will become, if nothing else, depth. The Gophers had been down to just nine scholarship players. Diedhiou is a mystery, because he was a Spanish player with no other NCAA offers. But in Big Ten play, Minnesota is going to end up with some big guys in foul trouble, and Diedhiou will end up on the floor. If he can save even one game that could be the difference between the Gophers making or missing the NCAA Tournament.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Morning News: Cincinnati Outlasts San Diego St, Dayton Dismissals, NC State/Tennessee, Demetrius Treadwell, And More

Nobody scowls at refs better than Mick Cronin. He was right, too. It wasn't a foul.
Cincinnati Outlasts San Diego State This was the ugly game we all knew it would be, and it also almost ended in controversial fashion, as San Diego State only got this game to overtime on what seemed like a pretty clearly blown foul call. Of course, unless you were a Cincinnati fan it was totally worth it for Mick Cronin making Mick Cronin Faces and chasing the refs around the court (see the picture I took and posted above). San Diego State had been 18-1 in overtime games over the last ten seasons, which is a remarkable run of luck, but meaningless for their next overtime. They got sloppy here and ended up losing the period by nine.

The announcers kept insisting that Cincinnati needed this game more since they hadn't yet beaten anybody any good, but I don't know if that was true. Cincinnati gets VCU at home on Saturday and they still have NC State, SMU (at least twice) and UConn (at least twice) ahead. The Mountain West only really has Colorado State as a likely RPI Top 50 team, so San Diego State has to do their damage in non-conference play if they're going to be in contention for a 2-4 seed. Assuming that they beat their remaining cupcakes, San Diego State will finish non-conference play 10-3 with wins over Utah, BYU and Pittsburgh to go with a potentially iffy loss to Cincinnati. It's fine, but they honestly look more headed to something like a 5 seed than a 2 seed.

This is a really key stretch for Cincinnati. Home games against teams like San Diego St and VCU are RPI and resume-building gold. They took care of San Diego State, and now really have a chance to elevate their resume by taking out VCU.

Dayton Boots Devon Scott And Jalen Robinson Due to a dorm robbery they committed, Scott and Robinson are dismissed from Dayton University and will not play for the basketball team again. Scott, at least, was a behavior problem before he showed up. Scott had started every game and was averaging 9.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, while Robinson was averaging 3.2 points and 2.4 rebounds off the bench. And Dayton now has just eight scholarship players available. So a season that looked very promising preseason looks to be spiraling out of control.

NC State Holds Off Tennessee One good thing you have to say about this Tennessee team is that they keep fighting. This isn't the first time they've found themselves down by a lot of points, and they trailed by 17 points midway through the second half here, but they fought back to actually make it kind of competitive in the final 90 seconds.

But Tennessee's defense is a mess. They allowed 1.32 PPP here, and are allowing 1.09 PPP for the season (300th best in the nation). Ralston Turner led the way for NC State, scoring 33 points on 9-for-18 shooting. This was their chance to salvage their non-conference slate. Instead they enter SEC play with a whole lot of work to do to earn an at-large bid. They have to go at least 11-7 in conference play to realistically have an at-large chance.

NC State is the sneaky at-large contender that nobody is talking about. They have a loss to Wofford and no impressive wins (Tennessee, Richmond and Boise State are their best), but the computers like them. They're up close to 40th in both Sagarin and Pomeroy, though it's a bit iffy since it's come against a soft schedule. They've got their toughest (and most meaningful) game of the season thus far up next, when they take on West Virginia in Madison Square Garden on Saturday.

Demetrius Treadwell Gone From Akron Akron's star had been suspended since before the season started, and now he's no longer even enrolled in the school. Amazingly, Akron's season hasn't been completely sunk by the loss of their best player. They're not the favorite in the MAC, certainly, but they're playing well enough to be in the mix. It'll be interesting to see if Treadwell can get his off-court situation together to be successful at another school.

Creighton's James Milliken Suspended Indefinitely Milliken committed an unspecified "violation of team rules", but he might be gone from Creighton for a while. The junior had been averaging 5.7 points in 17.2 minutes per game off the bench. Even though he certainly wasn't one of their best players, Creighton was probably going to need most everything to go right to earn an at-large bid the way things were going, so this is a situation to monitor.

Branden Dawson Injured This injury happened late last night, so we don't have any concrete timetables, but it does seem very likely that Dawson will miss some games with an injured wrist. Up next are just a couple of cupcakes, but the Spartans kick off Big Ten play on December 30th. Dawson is their most dynamic offensive big, and also their leading rebounder, so it would be significant if he has to miss some Big Ten games.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Morning News: Alabama Collapses, Northern Arizona Stuns St. Mary's, Luke Fischer's Debut, And Sherron Dorsey-Walker

Dick Vitale showed up in Wichita for a WSU/Alabama game on a Tuesday.
I think that program has arrived.

Wichita St Overcomes Alabama Late Alabama held a small lead for almost this entire game, and they opened it up to an 11 point lead with under 6 minutes to go. But down the stretch, Alabama went 0-for-4 from the field with 4 turnovers, allowing Wichita State to go on an 11-0 run to tie up the game.  And then, after Levi Randolph got fouled and hit 1-of-2 at the line, the Alabama defense totally fell apart and allowed Fred VanVleet to find Darius Carter for an easy basket, and then VanVleet's defense was a big reason why Alabama couldn't get a decent shot on the other end of the court.

This is the type of game that has become far too common in recent years for Alabama. They seemed to have this game in hand but just melted down late. Some of those turnovers were just absolutely unforced and dumb. And this team isn't bad, but they needed a win like this to put themselves into the bubble mix. In the end, it's just another missed opportunity during the Anthony Grant era.

Wichita State can't afford more than two or three losses all season long if they're going to earn a 1 or 2 seed in March. The Missouri Valley just doesn't offer enough quality victories. So this is the type of loss that could have easily lost them a full seed line if they hadn't come back.

Northern Arizona Stuns Saint Mary's This certainly came out of nowhere. Northern Arizona entered this game 1-5 against the Pomeroy Top 250. I couldn't find an official Vegas spread, but Pomeroy had it at 13 points and Sagarin had it at 14. And even when Northern Arizona led late in the first half and early into the second half it felt inevitable that St. Mary's would come back. But St. Mary's just struggled, and even after they went up by 4 with a minute to go, they were undone in the final minute by Quinton Upshur. He hit a three, and then when St. Mary's had one final chance to win the game in the closing seconds it was Upshur who stripped Aaron Bright and went the other way for the game-winning layup.

Kris Yanku's contested score, followed by Quinton Upshur's strip and score for the win.

St. Mary's already had something of a long shot for an at-large bid. Unless they won at St. John's on Friday they were going to have to be really dominant in conference play to get one. But perhaps they were looking ahead a little too much to that St. John's game. Now, they're going to need a couple of quality wins to wipe this loss away, including most likely at least one win over Gonzaga.

Luke Fischer Era Starts Well At Marquette This Marquette roster is light on depth and talent but all season long we'd talked about the talent coming in the form of Luke Fischer and their 2015 recruiting class. Their 2015 recruiting class won't arrive this season, of course, but Luke Fischer's season debut came last night. The Indiana transfer was immediately impressive, pouring in 19 points on 9-for-11 shooting with 9 rebounds and 5 blocks. And they annihilated a decent Arizona State team here, leading by as many as 21 points in the second half before cruising to the finish.

Is Marquette really going to be this much better the rest of the way? Well, don't overreact to single game samples. Fischer won't shoot 82% from the field the rest of the way, most likely. But this is an encouraging start. Unfortunately, they only play cupcakes until they open Big East play at DePaul on December 31st.

Arizona State is now 6-4, and while this is their worst loss they also don't have a single win over a likely RPI Top 100 opponent. They're not a bad team, but they're nowhere near the Tournament bubble either. They have an interesting home game in a couple of weeks against Harvard, so keep your eyes on that one.

Sherron Dorsey-Walker To Transfer Dorsey-Walker hadn't gotten on the floor much during his 1.5 seasons with Iowa State, so it's not a stunner that he's going to transfer out to try to find more playing time elsewhere. This shouldn't impact Iowa State too much this season, but he could be a valuable addition for a mid-major next season.