Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Post-Draft BP65

As promised, a new BP65 within a week of the NBA draft. The point of this one is to account for guys who went pro early. I made assumptions for the Preseason BP65, and some of the guys I assumed would go pro chose not to, and vice versa. Some of those errors will mostly cancel out. For example, Georgetown, where I assumed Roy Hibbert would go pro and Jeff Green would stay. I had forgotten the cardinal rule in scouting, that basketball ability and success takes a back seat to pure athletic talent when it comes to the Draft. I know that the mock drafts had him that high, but I am still shocked that anybody thought Jeff Green was one of the top five guys in the draft after he completely bombed in the most important game of his college career.

If I was running an NBA team, I would focus on college success. The best players on the best teams generally are not going to bomb. If they don't blow away everyone with their physical skills they might never be a Hall of Famer, but once you get past the first few picks in the draft you're not looking for a Hall of Famer anyway. By the time you reach the end of the first round, you are drafting for role players. At that point it's an absolute must to go for quality college players who you know will atleast be reasonable successful role players. I can't understand general managers reaching for 17 year old prospects from South Korea in the second round. Just look at the second round "steals" in recent years: Gilbert Arenas, Michael Redd, Carlos Boozer, Chris Duhon, Ryan Gomes. What do they all have in common? They all starred in the Pac-10, Big 10, ACC or Big East. If I was in charge, I can assure you that Arron Afflalo and Alando Tucker would not have gone 27th and 29th, respectively. I don't care if they aren't the right size or athleticism: Those guys won Player of the Year in BCS Conferences. That's enough for me.

Anyway, getting back to the topic at hand, some teams will get moved around because of changes to who went pro. Ohio State will struggle even more without Daequon Cook. Depaul loses Wilson Chandler. Georgia Tech is especially hard-hit as both Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young went in the first round. One final note: This will be the last BP65 until just before games start getting played, sometime around the first of November.



1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. OHIO STATE (BIG 10)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Michigan State

3. Georgetown
3. Duke
3. Arizona
3. Texas

4. Indiana
4. Alabama
4. Marquette
4. UConn

5. Oklahoma State
5. Washington State
5. Mississippi State
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

6. Pittsburgh
6. Missouri
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Washington

7. Kentucky
7. Clemson
7. Wisconsin
7. USC

8. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
8. Wichita State
8. Syracuse
8. BYU (MOUNTAIN WEST)

9. Florida
9. North Carolina State
9. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Arkansas

10. Michigan
10. Texas Tech
10. Illinois
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

11. Virginia Tech
11. VCU (COLONIAL)
11. Georgia Tech
11. Stanford

12. Texas A&M
12. Northern Iowa
12. LSU
12. Oregon

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

15. YALE (IVY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
15. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)

16. SOUTHERN UTAH (MID-CON)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Virginia, Rhode Island, Xavier, Depaul, Cincinnati, Villanova, West Virginia, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Drexel, George Mason, Houston, Indiana State, New Mexico, San Diego State, California, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Utah State

Other teams that can believe they have a plausible shot at an at-large bid:
Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, Fordham, Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Penn State, Baylor, Iowa State, High Point, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Central Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Bradley, Creighton, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Utah, Arizona State, Bucknell, Appalachian State, Georgia, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Alabama, San Diego, Saint Mary's, Fresno State, Hawaii

4 comments:

Raleigh said...

You predict Wake Forest will have a shot at an at-large bid. I think Wake Forest will finish in the bottom 3 of the ACC in the coming season. In fact, I see them finishing last in the league. In other words, they have no shot at an at-large bid. Ish Smith, Harvey Hale, Jamie Skeen, David Weaver, LD Williams, with newcomers Teague and Johnson just won't be enough, with the way Skip Prosser's teams play defense, to win more than 3-4 ACC games.

As for only 5 from the ACC, you may be right about that, but VaTech will not be one of them. When you wrote this you couldn't have forseen that Munson would transfer and the star of the recruiting class would back out, but they don't have all that much coming back, and the recruiting class was only really strong by VaTech standards.

Other than the bottom 3 (VaTech, Wake, Miami) and the top 1 of the ACC (UNC), the league is hard to predict this year. Duke might be getting enough freshman firepower to take 2nd. I will be surprised if FSU can make it to the top half of the league. NC State should be top 5, perhaps even second best if the Pack can get good point guard play. Clemson, Maryland, BC, and GTech (the Yellow Jackets have more coming back than many people think, imho) all have shots at being top-half of the league finishers.

Anonymous said...

You obviously don't know anything about the ACC if you have teams like Clemson and NC state going tho the tournament and teams like Maryland and Virginia staying home. Maryland will return 3 out of 5 starters and have one of the most athletic teams in the country. Do your homework...last season they beat UNC, Duke (2), NC State (2), and Clemson (2). Ask around about Greivis Vasquez, James Gist, Bambale Osby, and Eric Hayes. Duke is a good year away from returning to the upper echelon of the conference. Especially after losing Josh McRoberts. Oh yeah, and Greg Paulus will still be trying to run their offense. UVA will return Sean Singletary, Mamadi Diana, and Laurynas Mikalauskis. Not to mention they finished tied for first last year and have Coach of the Year Dave Leito running the show. I see that you have several Big 10 teams in the dance though. Their the most overrated teams in the country! Not to mention the ACC beats their ass every year!

Jeff said...

Raleigh, thank you for having a more well thought out and not quite as rude posting style than "anonymous", so I'll answer you first. First of all, if you read my ACC Preview you'll see that I pick Wake Forest for dead last. I simply was listing any team with any plausible shot at making a run for the Tournament, which in the preseason is basically every BCS team. I listed every ACC team and almost every Big 10 team, for example. The idea is that no team will make the final Tournament that isn't listed in preseason, so I cast a really wide net and narrow it down throughout the season.

As for Va Tech, you're right that I'm not accounting for transfers out. Based on the tragic shootings, it's really hard to tell how Va Tech's basketball team is going to shake out this season. I'm going to pass judgment until they've played a few games. They're just one of hardest teams in the country (along with Kansas State) to predict right now.

As for anonymous, read my ACC preview to understand why I placed teams where I did. Maryland, for example, is a lot more hurt by graduations than you give them credit for. They lose more than half of their scoring, and most of their core from the last two years. They will still be good, but I think 7 other ACC teams will be better. And it's hard to see the ACC getting 8 teams. Especially with the Big 10 improving so much in the coaching ranks this past offseason.

Raleigh said...

Thanks for pointing me to your ACC preview. I agree with much of what you say, and look forward to future updates.

As for Anonymous' comments, yes Paulus struggled for much of last year, but he was very effective down the stretch in the ACC. It will be interesting to see how his junior year goes. It's odd that you cite the return of Mikalauskas as a reason to expect UVa to be good. He's one of the most offense-challenged big men ever to play in the ACC. Leitao won COY, big whoop. Reynolds and Singletary, and to a lesser extent rebounding by Cain, won him that. By the time UVa got to the ACC tournament they were in dissaray. I think chances are good that Clemson and NC State will be better this year and UVa and Maryland will be worse. Clemson, as Jeff said, bring everyone back other than Hamilton. Maryland loses Strawberry and Ibekwe and UVa loses Reynolds. It's hard to see UVa winning 10 conference games again. It's possible that Maryland could, but Strawberry was very big for that team.