Saturday, December 20, 2008

Two Close Finishes... Two Not So Close

#2 UConn 88, #7 Gonzaga 83, OT
This is one of those games where I was really glad to have Gus Johnson as my announcer. I think he actually vaporized his microphone when A.J. Price hit that miracle three-pointer to tie the game. It was actually a terrible shot, and Price clearly panicked and didn't realize how much time he still had left on the clock. But he made the shot, and UConn won the game, so it all worked out in very exciting fashion. The difference in this game, though, was the foul situation. Gonzaga was called for 26 fouls, compared to UConn's 18. Thabeet fouled out for UConn, but that was more than balanced out by eliminations for Austin Daye, Micah Downs and Matt Bouldin. I know that a lot of Gonzaga fans feel short-changed by the refs, but it's hard to argue that UConn got some home cooking in Seattle. The refs may have been distracted by that hideous floor, but UConn earned most of those fouls by aggressively getting to the rim. Gonzaga became far too timid and, especially as their lead melted away in the second half, become too much of a perimeter-oriented team. This loss is a serious blow to Gonzaga's hopes for a 1 seed, but they still have a shot. A win at Tennessee on the 7th of January would really help. Without a win there, or over Memphis in February, Gonzaga can pretty much forget about that 1 seed. Not that a 2 seed would be too shabby for a WCC team. For UConn, I have to say that they've been the most consistent Big East team so far this year. The difference between a 16-2 and a 15-3 and a 14-4 season is consistency, and the fact that UConn never seems to take a night off bodes well for their chances to take the conference.

#18 Purdue 76, #20 Davidson 58

This game wasn't as close as the final score. Purdue actually jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never let Davidson really get into this game at all. A big reason that this was a tough match-up for Davdison is that Purdue has really good perimeter defense. That meant that they could contain Stephen Curry without over-committing, like other teams have done early this season. Curry ended up with 13 points on 26 shots from the field, and only had six assists. Davidson won't beat anybody when Curry plays like that. Also, they had no answer for Robbie Hummel, who was set loose inside and went for 18 points and 14 rebounds. For Purdue, they did a good job of matching Michigan State's big win earlier in the afternoon. They believe that they can win the Big Ten, and they're going to have to beat Michigan State to do it. For Davidson, they were obviously over-rated at 20th in the nation. They're not as good as last year's team, but they're still in very good shape for an at-large bid. Even assuming that they lose at Duke on January 7th, Davidson can still afford to lose a game in conference during the regular season, and still make the Tournament if they fall in the SoCon tourney.

UNLV 79, Arizona 64
I did call this victory for UNLV, but even I was shocked at how Arizona was blown off the court. They just looked like they didn't want to be there. They were extremely lackadaisical on offense, giving up 19 turnovers (10 of which came on steals) compared to only 7 turnovers for UNLV. And despite their massive size advantage, Arizona didn't seem interested in running their offense through Jordan Hill. He only took 11 shots despite 6 offensive rebounds (since post players often shoot as soon as they get an offensive board). During the parts of this game that I watched, Arizona just didn't hustle, on offense or defense. They didn't even have the energy to go on a little run in the second half after UNLV opened up their big lead. But while Arizona falls further down the bubble hierarchy, UNLV pushes ahead to 10-2 with a few solid victories and no bad losses. They get a huge opportunity on New Year's Eve at a suddenly vulnerable Louisville, but even a loss there wouldn't knock them down too far. UNLV has shown more depth this year than I thought (I feared it would be the Wink Adams show every game). Without any overwhelming out-of-conference wins (unless they beat Louisville), UNLV will have to earn their at-large bid in conference play. The Mountain West is a very tough conference this year, but I still think UNLV has to finish first or second to feel good about an at-large. The conference will most likely get only two Tournament teams.

#17 Arizona State 76, BYU 75
Speaking of the Mountain West, this should have been a big win for the conference, too. I actually saw the end of this game live, and I'm convinced that the ball left Charles Abouo's hands just before the clock turned to 0.0. And I have a sneaking suspicion that if this game weren't held in Glendale that the refs might have felt the same way. Unfortunately for BYU, the Selection Committee is just going to see this as any other 1-point loss, and this will go down as a big missed opportunity. They are still 10-1, but they lack any good wins as the schedule has been very weak. They get a great opportunity to get that win on January 3rd when Wake Forest comes to town, where BYU has won 52 straight home games. A win there and they're definitely back in business. For Arizona State, they just continue to grind out wins. They're now up to 9-1, with wins over Charlotte, BYU and Nebraska. With only two more easy games left before the Pac-10 starts, Arizona State is going to have to prove themselves in conference to get a good seed. But I do see them as the second best team in the conference, so they should get plenty of wins.

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