Friday, December 02, 2011

Kentucky's Defense Eviscerates St. John's

#1 Kentucky 81, St. John's 59
St. John's is undermanned and wasn't likely to win this game no matter what, but Kentucky's defense absolutely shut them down in every possible way. St. John's finished with 0.75 points per possession. The Johnnies had a 33.3 eFG%, while Kentucky collected an absurd 18 blocks, along with 9 steals. Anthony Davis has incredibly length and athleticism - while he may not get 8 blocks in a game too often this season, he's going to contend for the national lead in blocks per game.

That said, while Kentucky's defense was tremendous, their offense is still a worry. Yes, they scored 1.03 points per possession, which doesn't sound bad on its face, but that stat is deceptive here. First, they had a ton of fast break layups and dunks. I think they had about eight alley-oops. On top of that, St. John's is a flat out atrocious defensive rebounding team - they have good offensive rebounders, but defensive rebounding is all about execution, and they're terrible at it. Kentucky finished with 17 offensive rebounds. Take out the offensive rebounds and fast breaks and Kentucky's offensive production starts looking pretty mediocre. They still are not good at attacking a zone in the half court.

I expect Kentucky's offense to get better as the season goes along, but they've got a long way to go. It will be very interesting to see how they play against North Carolina on Saturday. North Carolina is going to score and they're not going to turn the ball over that often, so Kentucky is going to have to be more efficient than they were against St. John's to win. And don't forget that a week after the Carolina game they'll be on the road at a resurgent Indiana team. That won't be a gimme game at all.

St. John's hasn't played badly this season, but the results haven't been there. They're 4-4 and their best win was over Lehigh. They clearly have good athletes and raw talent, but they're thin on the bench, and they're sloppy. The terrible defensive rebounding has to be a priority as well. They're going to give up 15 offensive rebounds every night in the Big East unless they clean that up. They have another tough game coming up on Monday, at Detroit. After that they should be able to beat up against a couple of cupcakes before starting Big East play on December 27th against Providence. It doesn't look likely that any of the three recruits that failed to qualify academically will be joining the team for the spring semester, so the team they've got is the team they'll have for the rest of the season.

#18 Gonzaga 73, Notre Dame 53
This would have been a competitive game if Tim Abromaitis were healthy. But he's unfortunately gone for the season, and this game was just a rout. Gonzaga was better on the boards, forced ten steals and shot the ball better. They won every aspect of this game. But the gap between these two teams right now means that even in this blowout there were some positive takeaways for the Irish. First, Jerian Grant really is establishing himself as the primary perimeter playmaker, which is something that they'll need since their front court will provide much less offense than it has in recent seasons. Second, they got a breakout game from true freshman Pat Connaughton, who is rapidly becoming a key contributor. It's partially a sign of the weak depth Notre Dame has, but it's worth noting that true freshmen rarely play much under Mike Brey.

Gonzaga has played an uncharacteristically soft schedule so far this season. They're 5-0, but this is one of only two wins against a decent opponent (Washington State was the other). Their schedule will toughen up as we get further into December, beginning with a road game tomorrow at Illinois. A week later they'll play Michigan State.

The Irish are 5-3, but they have only one win against a decent team (Detroit), and that loss to Georgia might not end up looking like a quality loss in March. They will play Maryland in Washington DC on Sunday, and then will have a couple of cupcakes before playing Indiana on December 17th.

Providence 76, South Carolina 67
This was just a solid, workmanlike victory for Providence. They grabbed a double-digit lead early in this game, which was played at South Carolina, and basically held it steady for the entire game. After the opening minutes, Providence never led by fewer than four points. South Carolina's offense continues to be dreadfully inefficient. They just don't have any players that scare any defenses.

While South Carolina has been disappointing this season. Providence has played better than expected under Ed Cooley. They'll obviously need to wait for Cooley's bluechip 2012 recruiting class before they'll have the talent to make a run at the NCAA Tournament, but they'll be decent this season. They're 6-2 with this win and a win over Fairfield, and neither loss is particularly bad (Iowa State and Northern Iowa). They now head into cupcake city for a few weeks, so they should be 11-2 when they open Big East play at St. John's on December 27th.

South Carolina isn't as bad as their record would suggest, but their record is pretty awful right now. They're 2-5 with zero quality wins, and losses to Elon, Tennessee State, Providence and USC. And they'll be pretty big underdogs on Sunday at rival Clemson. They also will play Ohio State on December 17th... and the way things are going, is their December 28th game against Wofford a gimme? I say no.

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