Friday, October 23, 2015

Post-Midnight Madness BP68

The thing with the college basketball offseason is that it feels so damn long and it always seems so far away from the first game... and then one day you wake up and the season is on your doorstep. And believe it or not, we are just three weeks from the opening night of college hoops.

There aren't too many changes since my July bracket projection. The biggest mover is SMU, since they were banned from postseason play (they had been a projected 3 seed). UConn has replaced them as my favorite to take the AAC, though it should be wide open with about five or six teams realistically in the mix. Replacing SMU in the projected field is Florida State. Tulsa is the first team out, for what it's worth.

With Kansas at #1, I'm obviously assuming Cheick Diallo is ruled eligible before any significant number of games are played this season. If he misses a significant chunk of this season, Kansas will fall in the projected bracket.

I'm not sure when daily blogging will resume. Probably around a week before the season starts.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday 2016:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. Virginia
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Maryland

3. Oklahoma
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Duke
3. Iowa State

4. Purdue
4. Texas
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Indiana

5. UCLA
5. Xavier
5. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. UCONN (AAC)

6. Wisconsin
6. Oregon
6. Baylor
6. Texas A&M

7. Cincinnati
7. Utah
7. Miami-Florida
7. California

8. Michigan
8. Georgetown
8. Louisville
8. NC State

9. Notre Dame
9. LSU
9. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
9. Vanderbilt

10. West Virginia
10. Ohio State
10. Pittsburgh
10. Dayton

11. Providence
11. Illinois State
11. UNLV
11. BYU
11. Rhode Island

12. Butler
12. Florida State
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)

13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (OVC)
13. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

15. HARVARD (IVY LEAGUE)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, Syracuse, George Washington, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Iowa, Oklahoma State, TCU, Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, Boise State, Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Pepperdine

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Creighton, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, UTEP, Akron, Kent State, Evansville, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Arizona State, Colorado, Washington, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Vermont, Houston, Boston College, Virginia Tech, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Northeastern, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Oakland, Columbia, Princeton, Yale, Monmouth, Siena, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Loyola-Chicago, Fresno State, Wyoming, Murray State, North Dakota State, USC, Washington State, Missouri, Portland, Santa Clara 

9 comments:

JohnMitch said...

Love your stuff. You definitely offer better information and knowledge than the "experts do. Curious why you have Arizona as a 1 seed? They seem to have lost a bunch and I am not sure Gabe York will be able to handle his new role. I think he will end up being much better as an under the radar guy. You lovin' the addition of Ryan Anderson?

Jeff said...

I love Ryan Anderson. Also, Mark Tollefson is a really underrated transfer who will be eligible right away. The bench players who return were all pretty good in terms of efficiency and simply lacked counting stats due to lack of playing time.

All in all, Arizona looks loaded to me. I might be wrong about the 1 seed, but I bet they'll end up in that mix in March.

Anonymous said...

Any reduction in expectation from Dayton with Pierre out? Still strong but loss of veteran inside.

Jeff said...

Dayton still is a talented team, and Archie Miller has done well with a short-handed roster before. I still think they're a Tourney team.

DMoore said...

In your ACC preview, you said:
"Virginia was a clear #2 team in the country...[and] they should be even better next season."

I see you have them as a 2 seed. Are the teams at the top of the bracket a lot stronger this year than they were last season?

Jeff said...

Justin Anderson going pro is what did it to Virginia. I'd have them #1 overall in the nation if he was back.

Luke Paldino said...

I see you have UNLV in over fellow MW member Boise St. What is the reasoning behind that prediction?

Jeff said...

There's no a big gap. I had Boise State ahead of UNLV going into the summer, but UNLV got Stephen Zimmerman to (mostly) replace Christian Wood, and then added Ike Nwamu, who should be a really nice player for them. So those two things combined put UNLV over the top of Boise State for me.

Luke Paldino said...

Thanks for the reply. I appreciate it!