Thoughts on the Week

Sorry for the off-and-on commentary, but this website isn't going to be fully up and running until next season. But for the time being, just a few thoughts on the goings on in the past week:


1. The Missouri Valley and Colonial conferences are a mess. People are giving different reasons, but here's the main one: The Missouri Valley has 6 teams (and the Colonial has 3) that are pretty much equal in resume. Some teams have better RPIs, some have better conference records, some have better strenghts of schedules or records, and other did better in the conference tournaments - so it's impossible to really separate these teams. Unfortunately, you can't really justify giving the Valley 6 bids or the Colonial 3 - the conferences simply aren't good enough. The Missouri Valley should get 3 or 4 teams, and the Colonial perhaps 2. So how do you pick who goes and who stays? That's a tough one. Makes me happy that I'm not putting up bracket predictions until the '06-'07 season.

2. There are already a few conference champions that will make some 3 & 4 seeds sweat in the First Round. Iona, Winthrop & UW-Milwaukee will all be tough beats. And there will be a few more good mid-majors coming in during the next few days (like whoever comes out of the MAC). Of the teams mentioned, the most dangerous has got to be Iona. They have a bunch of bad losses this year, but they also play their best when it matters the most. They fall asleep in the easy games, but have come up big against teams like Kentucky, Iowa State, Buffalo and Fresno State, while demolishing the competition in the MAAC tournament. They have the highest scoring backcourt in the nation, and can run with anyone. They're probably looking at a 13-seed, and will be the most likely team to knock off a 4-seed.

3. Texas and UNC are going to be tough teams to deal with when filling out brackets. On any given night, both of those teams can beat anyone. But they can also lose to anyone. I could see picking Texas to the Finals, or out in the Sweet 16. And I could see Carolina getting upset in the 2nd round, or making a run for the Final 4. If I had to pick one, though, I'd pick Texas. They have the experience to make a serious run. Carolina, on the other hand, is just proving that it can win big games. It's ready to make a title run next year.



Analysis will continue to be spotty, and I apologize. When this season ends, however, get ready. The first bracket prediction will come out within a week of the Championship game. Some teams I'll thinking about as title contenders for '07: UConn, Villanova, UNC, Ohio State and Kansas.