Sunday, January 21, 2007

W-7 BP65

Pretty amazing that there are only seven weeks until Selection Sunday. The first conference tournaments are only about 5 weeks away. Anyway, as per usual, the BP65:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas A&M

3. Arizona
3. Oklahoma State
3. Duke
3. Oregon

4. LSU
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
4. Alabama
4. Texas

5. Tennessee
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Clemson
5. AIR FORCE (MWC)

6. USC
6. Kentucky
6. Marquette
6. Georgetown

7. Washington State
7. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
7. Boston College
7. Illinois

8. Northern Iowa
8. West Virginia
8. Maryland
8. Michigan State

9. Indiana
9. Missouri State
9. Notre Dame
9. GONZAGA (WCC)

10. Georgia Tech
10. Creighton
10. California
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)

11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. UConn
11. Texas Tech
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Florida State
12. Arkansas
12. Louisville
12. UNLV

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MARIST (MAAC)

14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. IDAHO STATE (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)
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8 comments:

Anonymous said...

illinois a 7 seed? Come on Man. Wake up. They aren't even worthy for the Big Dance.

January 23, 2007 7:13 AM
Jeff said...

Remember, this isn't what their seed would be if the season ended now, but what it will be at the end of the year. Illinois has a very good strength of schedule that has their RPI at 50 even though they only have a record of 14-7. That record should pick up, because they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They avoid Wisconsin and Ohio State again (only had to play each one once this year), and they only have to play Michigan State at home. Meanwhile, they get Northwestern twice, and Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State at home. They could easily end up 10-6, although I see them more likely at 9-7, with 22-10 overall record and an RPI in the 30's. That should get them a 7 seed or so.

January 23, 2007 9:48 AM
Anonymous said...

Jeff, you must be the only guy that does there bracket based on what it will be in March.

Most everyone else I have seen does it based on TODAY. As if the season were to finish today, this is what the brackets would look like.

Illinois is now 2-7 against the top 50.

12 of their wins are vs. teams ranked 100 or higher.

January 24, 2007 12:36 AM
Jeff said...

Well I don't think it takes much skill to go through the current Top 25 and divide by four. The only thing that really matters is what the brackets will look like when they actually exist, so that's what I care about.

January 24, 2007 8:59 AM
Jeff said...

Sure, I'll make an effort to put a short list of "the best of the rest". Vanderbilt is a surging team to consider, so is Virginia Tech, so is Stanford. There are several to consider.


As for UConn, I understand what you're saying. But I look at their schedule right now and say that they could easily win their next five conference games. Providence, at Depaul, Rutgers, Syracuse, Seton Hall (and throw in a potential resume-building game at Georgia Tech in the middle of it all). If they win those games, they're 7-4 in conference without even that hard of a schedule after that. Although I'll grant you that if they lose at home to Providence this weekend it will be their 5th loss in the Big East, and they'll join Washington on the "They have a lot of talent, but just too many conference losses to be in the field right now" list.

January 24, 2007 1:47 PM
Jeff said...

Another thing to keep in mind for UConn are the Sagarin ratings. As most people know, he has an Elo-Chess rating which only cares about wins and losses and ends up mostly lining up with the RPI. He also has a Predictor rating that only cares about scores, and he considers this a much better predictor of future success (hence the name). The combination of these two averages gives his overall rankings, which are actually a better measure of likelihood of Tournament selection than the RPI. The selection committee will pass over teams with high RPIs and bad Sagarin ratings more than they will teams with high Sagarin ratings and questionable RPIs. You can see this over the last few years.

So, look at UConn. They have an Elo-Chess of 82nd in the country, which is right in line with their RPI. Their Predictor is an amazingly high 20. In other words, they have lost a LOT of very close games. Combine those ratings together and you have a total Sagarin rating of 54. Assuming a little improvement from here on out and UConn can easily expect a Top 40 Sagarin rating, which is usually enough to get in.

A good example of the opposite of this was Notre Dame football in the fall (sorry to you Notre Dame fans). They kept winning their games, so they kept moving up in the Elo-Chess ratings (and all BCS computer rankings, which aren't allowed take into account score). But the Predictor noticed that close wins over awful teams signified the likelihood of future failure. Right before their game against USC, their Elo-Chess was around 4th in the country while their Predictor was around 25th. I immediately put down money on USC to cover (I think I only had to give 13.5).

When in doubt, the Sagarin ratings a great objective indicator of a team whose on-field success has not yet correlated with its actual abilities.

For the record, the Sagarin ratings suggest that the following teams are really underperforming so far: Maryland, Virginia, Villanova, West Virginia, Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi State. These teams, like UConn, can be expected to improve their resumes in the future. The next set of teams, however, has over-performed and should be expected to cool off: Texas Tech, Air Force, UNLV, Oregon, Washington State, Stanford, Nevada.

It's not a perfect predictor, of course, but it's a good clue.

January 24, 2007 2:16 PM
Anonymous said...

I still don't understand how you believe Ohio State is a better team than Wisconsin. If Wisconsin wins at Iowa and Indiana this week, will you bump them up to a #1 seed? Winning those 2 games would nearly guarantee a 27-1 record going into the @MSU, @OSU, MSU stretch, where they will likely win at least 2 games. Do you really think it will be possible for a team going, say, 31-3 with a top 5 RPI to be denied a #1 seed?

January 27, 2007 9:39 PM
Jeff said...

I don't think Ohio State is better than Wisconsin. If I was on the Selection Committee, I'd give Wisconsin that #1 seed. But the way it's probably going down is that UNC, Florida & UCLA are getting three of the #1 seeds. The other one will go to the winner of the Big 10 Tournament. I think Wisconsin will win the regular season Big 10 crown, but my prediction is that Ohio State will upset them in the Big 10 Tourney finals. That will give them #1 seed, despite what happened during the regular season.

January 28, 2007 10:17 AM

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