Sunday, January 07, 2007

W-9 BP65

What a wild evening yesterday in college basketball. The biggest story, in my opinion, is the wide-open Pac-10. With UCLA and Arizona going down on the same day there is now a gigantic tie at 3-1. A real mess that I'll go through later this week. For now, the new BP65:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Arizona
2. LSU
2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke
3. Alabama
3. Texas A&M

4. Oklahoma State
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
4. Marquette
4. Oregon

5. UConn
5. Tennessee
5. Texas
5. Washington

6. Kentucky
6. NEVADA (WAC)
6. Maryland
6. AIR FORCE (MWC)

7. Michigan State
7. California
7. Illinois
7. Georgetown

8. Clemson
8. USC
8. Gonzaga
8. West Virginia

9. WICHITA ST (MVC)
9. Notre Dame
9. Boston College
9. Northern Iowa

10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Missouri State
10. Washington State
10. Southern Illinois

11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. Missouri
11. San Diego State
11. Virginia

12. Texas Tech
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Villanova
12. Louisville

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

15. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)
15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

2 comments:

D. Moore said...

OK. I think how the conferences will shake out is a little more clear than before the holidays. Here are some alternatives to some of these teams.

ACC -- Florida State looks more likely than Virginia. I realize that the predictions came out before Virginia lost at home to Stanford, but FSU has zero bad losses (Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, home vs. Clemson) and one marquee win (home vs. Florida). Virginia had two bad losses (home vs. Appalachian State, blown out at Utah) and one marquee win (home vs. Arizona in the season opener). Also, just watching the teams, Virginia is inconsistent, while FSU looks powerful. Also, Florida State's current RPI (using Kenpom) is 22, while Virginia's is 87.

Big East -- Providence looks more likely than Louisville. Although they have one bad early season loss (home vs Brown, second game of season), and their other two losses were not close (at Florida & at FSU), they have three decent wins (home vs. Boston College, George Washington & Marquette). The main unanswered question is whether they can win on the road. Louisville has no decent wins, and already has 5 losses, including U Mass at home, and at Dayton. Providence's current RPI is 45, and Louisville's is 110.

Big Ten -- Michigan State seems weaker than their seed. Although they have a good win against Texas, and no bad losses, they have already lost to Iowa and Indiana (albeit on the road). Indiana looks better right now. They do have 4 losses, but all of them are good ones. They have all been close, all on the road, and all against good teams (Butler, Duke, Kentucky, Ohio State). I realize the committee says that they don't count the number of entries from a conference, but I see Indiana as a likely fifth team from the Big Ten.

Pac10 -- California seeded above USC and Washington State? Hmmm. I haven't seen them play, but other than a high RPI I'm not seeing what in their record indicates that will hold up. I'll have to learn more about them.

Other teams that FSU, Providence or Indiana could replace -- San Diego State (off to a shaky start in conference, no big wins, lost at Western Michigan, RPI of 90 not likely to go up much in conference).

Jeff said...

I'm not going to really disagree with any of those. Florida State is looking good. I had them in the BP65 earlier this season, before they struggled and fell out. They were probably the first team out this week. A good performance this week will probably bring them back. As for Virginia, you may be right. I've been on the Virginia bandwagon since late last year, and I may be fooling myself with their occasional good performances. You are right that they need to be more consistent to stay in the Tournament. In the ACC, any off night means a loss - there are no pushovers.

As for Providence, they've had a great two weeks, but I want to see more out of a team that hasn't made the Tournament in several years. Yes, they have played a little bit better than Louisville, but we need more evidence before we can be sure they'll still be this good in a month... or even a week.

As for Michigan State, I agree that they've struggled early on in Big 10 play, but keep this in mind: All of their losses have been on the road. They are undefeated at home and on neutral courts, including a very impressive win over Texas in the preseason NIT. They get a shot at Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa and Indiana at home - a fairly fortuitous schedule for a team looking for another marquee win. Also, like Louisville, how can you bet against Tom Izzo? If you want to look for teams to improve later on in the season, always bet on the best coaches.

Finally, you may also be right about California. I'm sure you've noticed that I don't move teams around quickly. If you want to find a "prediction" that has Wichita State seeded 2nd one week, and 12th a fortnight later, this isn't it. California has, for the most part, been moving down. USC is moving up, and I finally put Washington State into the BP65 (probably a few weeks overdue). If things continue like they're going, both teams will finish with a higher seed than California.