And Then There Were Six

Winthrop 76, #19 Miami 70
The first of the undefeated teams to go down today. But let's be honest, Miami is not an elite team. The #19 ranking was simply due to the silly way that we rank teams. Miami kept winning, so they kept inching up the rankings as other teams lost. Jack McClinton had another big day for the Canes, putting up 30 points on only 13 shots from the field. But he didn't get much help from the rest of his team. Meanwhile, Winthrop got back to what worked so well last year: scoring half of their points from behind the arc. Overall, 11 of 26 from three. For Winthrop, this is the type of win that can turn them from a 14 seed into a 12 or 13. As for Miami, this is more proof that they're going to be a bubble team all year. They still have a good shot at an at-large bid, but don't expect them to wrap it up too early.

Dayton 80, #6 Pitt 55
I had been telling people all day that this was a likely upset. You had Pitt very vulnerable, coming off a big win over Duke. As I have said, teams are never more vulnerable than after a big win or when they are on the precipice of a big accomplishment. Pitt shouldn't have been favored in this one, all things considered. But what ended up actually happening? Nobody saw a 30 point second half deficit coming. When Pitt is struggling it's because they're living and dying by the three (emphasis on the "dying"), and they went 3-for-26 in this one. And the injury to Levance Fields could be devastating if he's out for a long period of time. It's amazing how fast things can turn. Last week, Pitt looked like the favorite to win the Big East. Now they look like a team that could soon tumble out of the Top 25, especially if they can't beat Nova next Sunday without Fields.

Oklahoma 88, #23 West Virginia 82, 2OT
One of the better games of the day. It seemed like Oklahoma was down and out midway through this one, but West Virginia was simply unable to close the deal. West Virginia's time in the Top 25 was brief, but don't be surprised to see them back in a short while. They're a good team that looks well on their way to a return to the Tournament in their first year under Bob Huggins. The result in this one, however, was more important for the Sooners. They already had the win over Gonzaga, but that's looking less and less special by the day. This is their first big road victory. The RPI is a solid 27 at this point. If they can finish 10-6 in the Big 12 they should be a lock for the Tournament, and even a 9-7 will probably be enough after these good back-to-back out of conference wins. Mark January 14th on your calendar, as Oklahoma heads to Kansas for a game on that day. We'll learn on that day whether this Oklahoma team will make any real noise in the Big 12, or if they're going to try to sneak in as the 4th or 5th team out of the conference.

#12 Tennessee 82, Gonzaga 72
Bruce Pearl always focuses on hustle, and it was hustle that won this game for Tennessee. In the final 7 minutes, as their big lead was starting to slip away, the Vols chased down a slew of offensive rebounds to waste enough time to hang onto the win. It's been a very tough season for the SEC so far, but Tennessee is definitely a legitimate national title contender. They should run away with the conference. As for Gonzaga, they still look like a pretty good team. They keep playing elite opponents close. But as some point, you've got to win a game. I use close losses early in the season as an example of a team that is better than their record, and that is due to win more games in the future. But Gonzaga doesn't have the luxury of being able to get resume-building wins in February. At some point, they have to get that big win, and they need it soon. Their only real shot is to win at Memphis in late January. If they can't take that one, they pretty much need to run through the WCC undefeated. Otherwise, they might not even get an at-large at all if they lose the WCC tourney.

Illinois State 80, Creighton 67
Drake 62, Wichita State 54
Northern Iowa 59, Bradley 46
Opening night for the Missouri Valley, and already we can see that there will be a lot of uncertainty all season. Nobody is running away with this conference. Last year this was a positive, as they had so many good out of conference wins that it was possible to lose 6 or 7 games in conference and still get an at-large bid. I don't think that's true this season. Creighton looked like the most likely team to challenge SIU for the title, but this loss to Illinois State doesn't help their cause. Both Drake and Northern Iowa are off to good starts this season, and an opening night win helps their cause. At this point, I see those two teams joining Creighton and SIU as the four favorites here. A one-bid season for the Valley is a possibility, although it's unlikely in my opinion. The question is, who am I putting in tomorrow's BP65. I'll tell you what, I'm just not sure right now. SIU will still probably be in, despite the heartbreaking loss to Butler late last night. They don't have any big wins, but they should win the regular season MVC title. After that, I'd say that Northern Iowa still has to show me more before I proclaim them a Tournament team. I'll look at the numbers more and decide on Drake vs. Creighton by tomorrow morning.



The night isn't over yet. Memphis/Arizona is obviously the headliner. But St. Mary's is proving me right by struggling in the second half against Cal State Fullerton. And California is struggling with a very good North Dakota State team. It's really too bad that the Bison aren't Tournament eligible this year, because they'd be a great pick to pull a first round upset. Oh well. There's always next year, as they should be the heavy favorites to take the Summit in 2009.