Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Analyzing The NBA Early Entrants

I want to talk a bit about the kids who are currently going through the NBA Draft process, and about which will stay and which will go. This is an important issue because my conference previews (I don't have them all on one page quite yet - I'll have it in a couple of weeks at the latest - but they're all in the April '09 archive) and the BP65 all assume that certain players are staying and certain players are going. If a player decides to opt out of the NBA Draft after I had assumed they'd go pro then that will raise my projection of that team's '09-'10 season. And if a player goes pro who I thought would stay then, obviously, I will drop that team in my ratings.

With the April 26th deadline for entering the NBA Draft passed, we now know for certain who is in the process and who is not. The complete list is at Wikipedia here. Of those who are in the Draft and have signed with an agent, none of them are big surprises. I already assumed that all of those guys were gone when putting together my previews. So that information affects nothing. Of those who chose to eschew the Draft process altogether, the one surprise for me was Al-Farouq Aminu. I already talked about his situation here, where I mentioned that Wake Forest will jump higher in the next BP65 because of his return.

But now let's go through the question marks: the players that are in the Draft for now, but might choose to return to school before the deadline of June 15th. As my regular readers know, I love to break teams and players into groups, and I'm going to break these players into four groups. First, I will split them in half by whether my current projections assume that the player will stay in the Draft or not. And then I will split those in half again by how likely I think they are to stay in the Draft. Here we go:

Players that my 2009-10 projections assumed would go pro:
I'd be shocked if they don't stay in the Draft:
Eric Devendorf, Syracuse
Tyreke Evans, Memphis (Note: Wikipedia claims he already has an agent)
Jrue Holiday, UCLA
Tyler Smith, Tennessee

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them return to school:
Paul Harris, Syracuse
Patrick Mills, Saint Mary's
Tasmin Mitchell, LSU
Jeff Teague, Wake Forest

Players that my 2009-10 projections assumed would stay in school:
I wouldn't be too surprised to see them stay in the Draft:
Derrick Brown, Xavier
Nick Calathes, Florida
Austin Daye, Gonzaga
Devan Downey, South Carolina
Osiris Eldridge, Illinois State
Taj Gibson, USC
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Damion James, Texas
Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech
Ater Majok, UConn
Jodie Meeks, Kentucky
Patrick Patterson, Kentucky
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
Shawn Taggart, Memphis
Jarvis Varnado, Mississippi State
Greivis Vasquez, Maryland
Michael Washington, Arkansas
Nick Wise, Arizona

I'd be shocked if they stay in the Draft:
Dominique Archie, South Carolina
Dwayne Collins, Miami (Fl)
Brandon Costner, NC State
Bryan Davis, Texas A&M
Chinemelu Elonu, Texas A&M
Roderick Flemings, Hawaii
Mac Koshwal, DePaul
Donald Sloan, Texas A&M
Jonathan Tavernari, BYU
Jeremy Wise, Southern Miss

I'll review this list again once we pass the June 15th deadline and know for certain who will be back to college ball next season.


Anonymous said...

I have seen sources of Wikipedia and Google search from you. Sad.

Jeff said...

Is this going to be a permanent thing with Memphis fans coming in and bashing me on every single post?? I will not hesitate to turn on comment moderation if this doesn't stop.

The fact that this all started because I dared to point out a fact (that it is still possible for more Memphis players to transfer out) is what makes it even more ridiculous.

I really, really hope that you guys are just a crazed subsection of Memphis fans, and not a reflection on how the average Memphis fan behaves.

Anonymous said...
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Michael Jones said...

How about providing the Wikipedia link. I just looked at Tyreke Evans page on Wikipedia and there is no mention of him hiring an agent.

Jeff said...

What I meant by that is that the wikipedia link that is already in the article has Tyreke listed under "Players who have signed with an agent". Nowhere else can I find that information.

Of course, Tyreke won't return. My understanding is that he has an agent working on his behalf who he hasn't actually signed yet. He's going into the Draft, whether it's official right now or not.

Michael Jones said...

Thanks for clarifying! Agreed about Tyreke being gone for all practical purposes.
BTW, what is your background or work experience dealing with College Basketball (besides being an avid fan & blogger)? Just looked at your profile and did not see any information. Just curious.

DMoore said...

You have Brandon Costner listed in your "Shocked if they stay in the draft" list. Most of the speculation I've seen in the Raleigh newspaper is that he will not pull out even if he is not expected to be a high draft pick. The expectation is that Europe is in his future.

Jeff said...

DMoore, thanks for that info. I didn't know that.

Not only is Costner not going to be a high draft pick, but I haven't seen anybody project him to get drafted at all. He's a very marginal late second round pick. But if he's prepared to go to Europe (like Eric Devendorf, who also is going into the Draft even though he likely won't get picked) then he'll still go.