Sunday, January 06, 2013

W-10 BP68

Hey folks, I know that this bracket is coming out a bit later than usual... I was a bit too busy late last night to finish it. But I've still got this in by my self-imposed finish line (before Sunday's first game tips off).

Every conference has now started conference play (other than the Ivy League), so we've gotten our first taste of conference action. The key, as always, is to not overreact to single results. And I'm not just talking about a string of lucky wins (Arizona, Marquette, etc), but also to blowouts (like Illinois over Ohio State). Illinois had a great day and Ohio State had a terrible day, but does that mean that those performances are likely to be repeated regularly? Is Illinois really better than Ohio State? In my view, the answer to that is 'no'. The entire sample of the season thus far tells me that Ohio State is a better team than Illinois, and until more results prove that game to be a trend - rather than a fluke - I'm not going to move either of those teams too far in the bracket.

There was only one change to the 68 teams in the bracket this week, and that was a flip of the fourth Pac-12 team in the field. Oregon moved in, California fell out.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Michigan
2. Syracuse
2. Ohio State

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. Kentucky
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

4. Minnesota
4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Cincinnati

5. Michigan State
5. NC State
5. Pittsburgh
5. Butler

6. Notre Dame
6. Missouri
6. UNLV
6. Illinois

7. Oklahoma State
7. Wichita State
7. Wisconsin
7. Kansas State

8. North Carolina
8. Georgetown
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Baylor

9. New Mexico
9. Ole Miss
9. Iowa
9. Colorado

10. Iowa State
10. Temple
10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
10. Marquette

11. Maryland
11. Wyoming
11. UCLA
11. St. Louis

12. Virginia
12. Saint Mary's
12. Colorado State
12. Oregon
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Oklahoma, Texas, Boise State, California, Stanford, Alabama, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, UMass, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Southern Miss, Akron, Illinois State, Belmont, Oregon State, Arkansas, LSU, North Dakota State, Louisiana Tech

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Clemson, Virginia Tech, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Xavier, DePaul, Providence, St. John's, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, Purdue, West Virginia, SMU, Illinois-Chicago, Bradley, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Arizona State, Washington, Washington State, Lehigh, Texas A&M, Santa Clara

3 comments:

Chris said...

The A-10 hasn't started their conference play yet. :) Unless you are counting the Butler v Xaveir back in November which counted as nonconference because it was scheduled prior to Butler moving to the A-10.

Chris said...

OK. Two real comments.

You have VCU as winning the A-10? Don't think Butler is the best team in that conference? And Temple looks damn strong too (minus that Canisius loss)

How is Providence in your teams to keep an eye out after losing to BC, Brown, & Depaul at home?

Jeff said...

You're right about the A-10 not starting. The SEC also. For some reason I forgot about that when putting together my bracket.

Anyway, yes, VCU has been the best team in the A-10 this year. The only reason anybody thinks Butler is better is because they pulled off that overtime win over Indiana, but you can't judge a team on one game. Butler has lost badly to Xavier and Illinois, needed a miracle to beat Marquette, and has struggled with bad teams like UPenn and New Orleans.

In fact, I have Butler much closer to VCU than any computer rating. And the reason for that is my belief, as I've argued in previous years, that the computers always underrate Butler. They continue to show the ability to raise their level of play in important games against quality opponents, and so their bad performances against bad teams have to be partially discounted.

Now that said, even if I thought Butler was slightly better than VCU, VCU would still be my pick to win the A-10 tourney. I think VCU matches up beautifully against Butler because the Bulldogs have struggled so badly against full court presses this season.