Sunday, January 27, 2013

W-7 BP68

Alright, folks, here is my new bracket projection. It was a little later than I planned on it being, but that was before the Marshall Henderson gif happened. Seriously, watch it again. Greatest gif of the past year. You can pick a character, like "Auburn pajamas girl" or "white-shirted security guy who is obviously an Alabama fan loving it" and stare at them four or five times in a row.

Anyway, there are actually some changes at the top of this bracket. Florida is my new #1 overall. The way that they are destroying the SEC is historic, and it's hard to see them not sweeping the regular season and tournament titles. Kansas slid up to a 1 seed for the same reason. I dropped Louisville to a 2 seed - a line that they share with Syracuse.

At the bottom of the bracket, I made three changes. Virginia and BYU join the field as at-larges, replacing Temple and Wyoming. Also, North Carolina Central is my new pick to win the MEAC, replacing Savannah State.

Of the teams out of the field, the one I most wanted to put in was La Salle. But I need to see them prove for one week that what they did this past week wasn't a fluke. So they remain out for now. But the margin between them and St. Louis is pretty small.

We have the "full bubble" for the rest of the season. And this week, eight teams were eliminated from at-large contention: UAB, Bryant, Kent State, Murray State, Rhode Island, San Diego, Tennessee State and Western Illinois. That leaves 79 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Indiana
2. Syracuse
2. Ohio State

3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Cincinnati
3. UNLV (MOUNTAIN WEST)

4. Michigan State.
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Miami (Fl)
4. San Diego State

5. Minnesota
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. NC State
5. Wisconsin

6. Pittsburgh
6. Butler
6. Baylor
6. Ole Miss

7. Notre Dame
7. Wichita State
7. New Mexico
7. Oregon

8. Missouri
8. Marquette
8. Oklahoma State
8. UCLA

9. Iowa
9. Georgetown
9. Kentucky
9. Kansas State

10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
10. Colorado
10. Colorado State
10. Iowa State

11. Oklahoma
11. North Carolina
11. Illinois
11. Saint Mary's

12. Maryland
12. Virginia
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BYU
12. St. Louis

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Temple, Villanova, Southern Miss, Boise State, Wyoming, Arizona State, Alabama

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, Dayton, Xavier, Rutgers, St. John's, Northwestern, Purdue, Texas, Akron, California, Stanford, Washington, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, UMass, Richmond, Providence, Seton Hall, Nebraska, West Virginia, UTEP, Detroit, Illinois State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Washington State, Lehigh, Texas A&M, North Dakota State, Santa Clara, New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Stony Brook, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, DePaul, South Florida, Montana, Penn State, TCU, Texas Tech, East Carolina, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, Illinois-Chicago, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wright State, Loyola-Maryland, Western Michigan, Bradley, Fresno State, Nevada, Eastern Kentucky, Oregon State, USC, Utah, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Utah State

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

You're nuts for leaving La Salle out. They just beat #9 Butler and #19 VCU this week. You're bracket has no credibility.

Anonymous said...

and an RPI of 27.

Jeff said...

"Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference."

By Selection Sunday, those two wins will be in the distant mirror, and Butler probably won't be ranked any longer. I think La Salle needs to get to at least 10-6 in the A-10 with a win in the A-10 tournament to earn an at-large. And I just need to see one week of them proving that this past week wasn't a fluke. If they win both games next week then I'll probably move them into the bracket.

DMoore said...

I think Miami is likely to end up higher than a 4 seed. I would expect them to end up 26-7 going into selection day (15-3 ACC regular season champs, 2-1 in the tourney). I think that will give them a better resume than Ohio State (24-8 overall, 13-5 Big Ten regular season, 1-1 in the tourney), Michigan State (25-8 overall, 13-5 Big Ten regular season, 1-1 in the tourney), or Cincinnati (25-8 overall, 12-6 Big East regular season, 1-1 in the tourney).

Do you disagree with those predictions, or do you think that one of those teams will have a better resume than Miami if that is how the records end up?

Jeff said...

Well, I do agree with you that if Miami goes 15-3 and makes the ACC tournament title game then they'll probably get a 3 seed. And I know that Pomeroy is currently projecting 15-3. But to me, I think they're due for a little bit of regression. They've played so well the past few weeks, and it can be hard to handle that kind of success mentally when you're not used to it.

So at this point I'm taking into account that Miami is more likely to go 13-5 or 14-4 than 15-3. In my opinion, of course.

luciente said...

Ouch. Poor Philly b'ball this year.

Jeff said...

You know, until you said something I totally didn't realize that my first four teams listed out of the Tournament are all from Philly. That was not my intention, of course, but that's a pretty funny coincidence.