Saturday, October 11, 2008

Trouble For Tar Heels? Ronald Steele healthy?

Marcus Ginyard is out for eight weeks with a stress fracture in his foot. This is a problem, but not a huge problem. For one thing, Ginyard is not the most important piece in the Carolina puzzle. He's obviously not Ty Lawson or Psycho-T. And it's only eight weeks, so he'll be back in plenty of time for the ACC schedule. But if his absence is felt in any noticeable way, Carolina might rack up an early loss or two. Because they do have quite the early season schedule.

It was smart for Roy Williams to give his team a tough out-of-conference schedule. He knows that his team can lose a couple of games and still get a #1 seed in the Tournament. And playing tough teams of different styles will help prepare his boys for a title run. The Tar Heels get a possibly tough Kentucky team on November 18th. They then head to Maui, which is chock full of good teams. They are gifted with Chaminade in round one, but the Tar Heels will get either Oregon or Alabama in round two. In the finals, they will get either Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame or St. Joe's. Finally, the Tar Heels play Michigan State at Ford Field on December 3rd. So assuming that Ginyard does miss a full eight weeks, that puts four very tough teams in that stretch. Can Ginyard's loss cause the Tar Heels to have an extra loss? Possibly. Will it do any real damage to their National Championship hopes? Definitely not.


Also, read this interesting piece on Ronald Steele. People seem to forget how good this guy was before his injury. He was an honorable mention All-American after the 2005-06 season, when he electrified Tuscaloosa with his play. His stats were great up and down the box score: 14 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg, 41% 3-point shooting, 89% free throw shooting. But he suffered with injuries in 2006-07, and the resulting surgery caused him to miss all of 2007-08. He was granted a redshirt, and now the guy who was expected by many to play in the 2006-07 NBA season, is now a fifth year senior in 2008-09.

From last season, the Crimson Tide lose Mykal Riley to graduation and Richard Hendrix to the NBA. But Alonzo Gee is back, and the team has a bunch of young talent. But they were very thin last season, and without a healthy Steele I just can't see them being a Tournament team. But if he can play like he did in 2005-06, then just about anything is possible. There's no reason that they can't contend to win the SEC West. Steele seems to be convinced that he'll be completely healthy and completely back, but we'll have to see for ourselves. We'll all get a look at Alabama when they play Oregon in the Maui Invitational (November 25th). If Steele really does look like he did three seasons ago, I will probably have to put them in the BP65.

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