Here we go! This BP65 will have to hold you until Sunday, November 16th:
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)
2. Notre Dame
2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
2. Georgetown
3. Wake Forest
3. Tennessee
3. Duke
3. Baylor
4. Michigan State
4. Marquette
4. Louisville
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Kansas
5. Ohio State
5. USC
5. Kentucky
6. Clemson
6. Villanova
6. Wisconsin
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Oklahoma
7. Syracuse
7. Arizona State
7. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
8. West Virginia
8. Washington State
8. Virginia Tech
8. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
9. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Michigan
9. Maryland
9. LSU
10. Arizona
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Miami (Fl)
10. Oklahoma State
11. Missouri
11. UMass
11. San Diego
11. Pittsburgh
12. Oregon
12. South Carolina
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)
14. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. HARTFORD (AMERICA EAST)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Charlotte, St. Louis, Xavier, Cincinnati, Illinois, Minnesota, Texas A&M, VCU, Southern Miss, UAB, Butler, Miami (OH), Bradley, Creighton, Drake, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, California, Stanford, Washington, Alabama, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary's, New Mexico State
Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Florida State, Dayton, George Washington, Richmond, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, High Point, Winthrop, Indiana, Penn State, Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Cal State Northridge, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Houston, Marshall, UTEP, Cleveland State, Marist, Rider, Ohio, Western Michigan, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Air Force, Utah, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Appalachian State, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Pepperdine, Fresno State, San Jose State, Utah State
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4 comments:
Here's my take:
The UCLA, Florida, Wake Forest, and Ohio St picks are all possible, but rely heavily on Freshman.
I think Louisville has the potential to finish top 4, with Mich St in top 10.
Arizona St should fair quite well this year, and could possibly challenge for a conf title.
It should be interesting to see how the WCC ends up. Gonzaga, St Marys, and San Diego all will have their best teams in recent history, with each likely to post 25 win seasons. Leaving St Marys out is a gamble.
Washington vs Washington St. On paper I say Washington, but with a Wisconsin bias and recognition of quality coaching, its tough to call.
I second the over-hype of Oklahoma and Pitt, but question your high support of Michigan and Okla St. I think I'd throw in Alabama and UAB instead (not from baba..)
UMASS over Xavier over Temple. Tough to call, but I'm thinking Temple.
I say toss up between BYU and South Carolina ends with BYU making the tourney.
The loss of George might put UNC Ash out, replaced by Winthrop.
VCU should take it from GM.
Sunbelts open, but I think Ark LR and Mid Tenn ST top South Alabama.
I like Portland St over Montana.
I haven't seen Vermont on many top 150 lists, but I think they will have a great season, including contending and possibly taking the conf.
I like Cleveland St and UWGB over Valpo, Alabama St over Jackson St, and think that a healthy Tenn Martin can take the conf.
I appreciate your posts, and look forward to further predictions.
JM
I know that I'm relying heavily on freshmen with regards to some of the top teams... but hasn't that been the pattern these past few years? A star freshman can single-handedly turn a good team into a great team.
You made a lot of predictions, and I certainly see a lot of merit in them (for example, I was really torn on VCU vs George Mason, and definitely see the argument for Eric Maynor dominating that conference). As for Temple... I DID pick them to take the conference. I have UMass in as the 2nd team from the A-10, with Xavier just barely out at this point.
I put Oklahoma State in for the singular reason that I really like Travis Ford's ability to make any team better just by showing up. Plus, I've heard good things from what I've read about their practices.
As for Alabama, I already talked about that here. If Ronald Steele can stay healthy all year, and play even remotely like he did in 2005-06, then I agree that they look great for a Tournament bid. But if Steele can't stay on the floor, then that team is frightfully thin, and I just don't see how they'll be any better than they were last year.
I'm glad you enjoy the blog, and I look forward to more discussions as the season goes on.
Do you have Davidson as a 10 seed because you expect the committee to screw them again or because you don't think they are any better than that?
Well as always, these are predictions of how I believe the final bracket will end up, so it's not about my opinion about what a team "deserves."
But I don't quite see how they got "screwed" last year. I correctly called them last year as a #10. The Bracket Matrix also correctly called them as a 10 seed, with almost everybody putting them as a 9 or a 10.
The fact is that Davidson almost beat a bunch of good teams, but they always fell short. They didn't deserve to be any higher because they hadn't beaten anybody any good.
I know that they had worked their way into the Top 25, but I've talked about this before. The Top 25 is not a ranking of the 25 best teams (please click on the links in the "BP classics" tab about ranking teams to understand why). Davidson moved into the Top 25 simply because they kept beating up on bad competition while the teams above them lost to good competition. It often happens that mid-major teams sneak into the Top 25 by winning 15-20 games in a row, but then end up with a Tournament seed in the 8-to-12 range. Davidson got exactly what you should have expected.
And for this coming season, remember that any loss in the SoCon will be pretty devastating to their seed. They also need to prove that they can beat a good team this season. They'll get a little slack because of last year's Tournament success, but in the end a seeding is only based on this year's performances. Let's see them beat a team like Purdue, NC State or West Virginia (or Duke, for that matter). If they can slay a big time team and then avoid any bad losses, then we can talk about a seed in the 4-to-7 range. But I don't see that happening.
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