Sunday, March 01, 2009

W-2 BP65

The next BP65 will be out after Wednesday night's games:


2. UConn
2. Louisville
2. Duke

3. Kansas
3. Villanova
3. Missouri
3. Florida State

4. Wake Forest
4. LSU (SEC)
4. UCLA (PAC-10)
4. Marquette

5. Washington
5. Clemson
5. Illinois

6. West Virginia
6. Purdue

7. Arizona State
7. Texas
7. California
7. Wisconsin

8. South Carolina
8. Syracuse
8. Tennessee
8. Dayton

9. Boston College
9. Arizona
9. Florida

10. Ohio State
10. BYU
10. Oklahoma State
10. UNLV

11. Maryland
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Kentucky

12. Texas A&M
12. Minnesota

13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)




Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Rhode Island, Temple, Cincinnati, Providence, Michigan, San Diego State, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Penn State, Kansas State, UAB, New Mexico

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Baylor, Nebraska, George Mason, Tulsa, Niagara, Illinois State, USC, Washington State, Auburn

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, Seton Hall, Northeastern, Houston, UTEP, Wisconsin-GB, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt


Anonymous said...

Your Rhode Island fan weighing in again. I don't understand how Temple is as close to the field as we are. You have both us and them at just out of the field, however we've now passed them in conference, we have a much better overall record as well. Our bad loss (Richmond) is nothing compared to their four! bad losses (Buffalo, Long Beach St., Umass, La Salle). Sure their best win (Tennessee) is slightly better than ours (Dayton), but it isn't exactly like the Owls were amazing OOC.

I feel the Rams (barring a loss at Duquesne today) are clearly #3 in the A-10 pecking order, and with a win over #2 last week (a team Temple just lost to), I don't see any comparison. If the A-10 is to get three teams (which I believe they should) I don't see the Rams missing the tourney. Temple, on the other hand, I believe has to win the A-10 tourney to get in.


Also, is the MAAC now a 1-bid conference? I think Siena is in real trouble after losing to Niagara. The Purple Eagles on the other hand have a decent enough RPI (57) and a whole load of wins 24 (+2 more from the tourney assuming they get to a finals showdown with Siena again.) Does a 26 win Niagara have a shot? The wins aren't great, but Illinois State in the bracketbuster must count for something?

Jeff said...

Well, I do think that Rhode Island has just moved ahead of Temple, but they were behind Temple before each of their last games (a win and a loss to Dayton, respectively). It is true that Rhode Island has less bad losses, and that they're one game ahead in the conference standings, but Rhode Island is being held back by the weak schedule.

Temple has an RPI of 47th, and Rhode Island is 60th. Sagarin has the two teams basically even.

In the end, I think it's about which team ends with more strength. Who plays better in the A-10 tournament, and what not. It also, of course, depends on what happens around the rest of the nation. Neither team will make the Tournament because the Selection Committee thinks the A-10 deserves another bid.

As for Siena, I do believe that the MAAC is most likely a one-bid league. Niagara is certainly still in things, but the only chance they have is to go undefeated the rest of the way and then lose a very close game to Siena in the MAAC finals. Siena obviously has a better shot at an at-large, but I think it will be held against them that they couldn't beat any good teams. It's one thing to have a tough schedule, but if you don't beat any of those teams then the Selection Committee will not be impressed.

Anonymous said...

i know this is a comment about the Big West pick but i just wanted to point it out to you. you have gotten the Long Beach st out of the bif west wrong. they just got crushed by Cal State Northridge yesterday. CSUN is currently #1 in big west and are the fav to win that conf out if you ask me.

Jeff said...

I saw that result, but didn't feel the need to overreact to a single game. The teams split the season series with each team winning at home. And I've seen both of these teams play once this season, and at least in that small sample size I thought that Long Beach State looked better and like they had a higher ceiling. I'm not going to jump off the bandwagon unless they really let this loss snowball and fall into a tailspin.

Anonymous said...

You've moved Memphis up to a 1 seed, and UConn down to a 2 seed. I don't necessarily disagree with it, but what's the rationale? Is it how strong Memphis' computer numbers are (Pomeroy has them at #1, but Sagarin still has UConn above Memphis)? Memphis hasn't won any significant games lately, and UConn hasn't lost any lately, so why the change? Yes, they should lose to Pitt, but that could have been foreseen for a while.

At this point in the season, I'm not sure how you have UCLA above Washington. Washington will almost certainly win the conference regular season, and I would think they are the tournament favorite too.

I like that you now have Florida State over Clemson. It's a good recognition that the reality of the ACC has changed in the past couple of weeks.

Jeff said...

The rationale on Memphis is that UConn just is not playing that well right now. Even that win over Marquette comes with an asterisk because of the Dominic James injury. The reason I had pushed Michigan State up to a 1 was not because they have played well, but just because I felt like I needed some team other than UConn.

But now that Memphis won that game at UAB, I just don't see any way they lose another game before the NCAA Tournament. I know that they haven't really beaten anybody, but there's no question that they're a lot better now than they were a couple of months ago. Their Sagarin PREDICTOR is up to 4th already.

Memphis would not be a 1 seed if the season ended now (it would be UConn, Pitt, UNC and Oklahoma), but they will benefit when other teams lose. I think UConn will lose by the semifinals of the Big East tournament, and at this point I can't put Michigan State's Big Ten tournament chances much better than 50%. Memphis will be the red hot team, and will have two straight weeks of the growing chorus of "Hey, why not Memphis for a 1 seed?" So that's why I have them as a 1 seed. But if they lose any game between now and Selection Sunday they will be a 2 or a 3.

As for UCLA, you're right that Washington is currently ahead of them. But I'm still giving them the Pac-10 tournament title. I just feel like Washington is playing as well as they possibly can play, and that they're not going to have another gear to go to. UCLA is a team that has a ceiling far higher than any other Pac-10 team, and they just don't show it early in games. If they come out highly motivated from the opening tip, as I think they might now that March is here, I think they will play at their best. And their best is better than Washington's best.

Anonymous said...

Call me crazy, but I think Memphis loses @ Houston this week. The Tigers are overdue for a flat game and are bound to be looking ahead past their weak conference to the bright lights of the tourney. I don't think Memphis will win the Cusa tourney either. I don't think Memphis is good enough to beat both UAB and Houston three times each in the season... those deeps are both talented and desperate while Memphis doesn't have a whole lot to play for. Then again, I may be underrating the Tigers as I watched my not all that good Orange beat Memphis pretty handily.

Speaking of the Orange, I guess they are a lock (thank goodness, I was afraid it'd be 3 NITs in a row) after this beatdown on the Bearcats concludes. Once again, call me crazy, but I think the Big East only gets 7. Should be fun watching ESPN moan when Cincy, Providence, Georgetown, and ND all get left out.

Jeff said...

Well, I thought Memphis would lose to UAB, but at this point I just can't pick them to lose any games in that conference. What has it been, almost three years now that they haven't lost a game there? If they lose then they won't get that 1 seed, but right now I can't project anything other than a Memphis team that wins every game until Selection Sunday.

I wouldn't call Syracuse a "lock" quite yet. I think they have to beat Rutgers at home to clinch it for certain - not that they should have any trouble doing that. I do think the Big East has seven safe teams, but I agree that there is an excellent possibility right now that no more Big East teams get in.

And you are also right that ESPN's shilling for the Big East this season has been embarrassing. It's as bad as their SEC love fest was back in 2007. It's so bad that I can see Duke and UNC fans wondering why they're not getting their due attention on ESPN, which if you've watched ESPN for a number of years is really saying something.

Anonymous said...

"ESPN's shilling for the Big East this season has been embarrassing...It's so bad that I can see Duke and UNC fans wondering why they're not getting their due attention on ESPN"

Not to worry. Duke Vitale still has a man crush on any player whose name begins with ty. We'll be OK.

Jeff said...

Yeah, Jay Bilas is also really bad with the Hansbrough stuff. But announcers will always have their biases that come out because they have to speak for two hours at a time about only two teams.

What bothers me is that this season we have the Sportscenter anchors matter-of-factly mentioning things like "And they've done this in the Big East, by far the best conference in the country" and "This is why the Big East is one of the best conferences in history." Even if they were saying it about the ACC, which is the real best conference in the country, it would still be inappropriate because of the vague concept of "best conference" (I've written about this). When you have the case that the Big East is probably the third best conference it's really embarrassing.

Anonymous said...

Wow, still so much time left until selection sunday and the Big East is down to just one bubble team left. Who thought Georgetown and Cincy would both go down tonight? At least the Orange took care of business.

Jeff said...

Yeah, I was flipping between those games on tv. The Cincy result was not really surprising, because they've had a tendency to play really well one night and really badly the next night. They are very young and raw and inconsistent. It didn't help that Mick Cronin (a coach that I'm usually a fan of) did an atrocious job coaching those final minutes. That one possession when they were down 9 with a little over 2 minutes to go and they had a foul to give and they let 27 or 28 seconds go off the shot clock before fouling and giving South Florida a fresh 35? That was maddening. Even the announcers couldn't understand what was going on, and low-level announcers usually praise everything.

As for Georgetown, that result was a shocker, although in retrospect how can we be shocked by bad Georgetown performances anymore? They are, in my opinion, clearly the biggest underperformers this season. They are far better than several teams that will be in the Tournament, but they're not going to be joining those teams. Just a big disappointment all around. I'll talk about it more tonight or tomorrow.