Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Complete Southwest Region Analysis

Opening Thoughts:

The only team that arguably has a path to the Final Four as easy as Pitt this year is Kansas. Louisville is the only team in their half of the region that can seriously challenge them. The bottom half of the Southeast is strong, particularly if Chris Singleton and Chris Wright come back for Florida State and Georgetown, respectively. But even so, Kansas has a difficult path relative to what 1 seeds have typically seen in the past, and I'm picking Kansas to fall in the Sweet 16. No team this year has anything like the free path to the Elite 8 that Duke had last year. College basketball is very, very deep this year.

I actually don't understand people saying that college basketball is down now. We have more talent and better coaching in college basketball than ever. Parity is not the same thing as mediocrity. It jars me that people see how much more talented the NBA is than it was 10 years ago, and see that players aren't leaving early for the NBA any more often than they were 15 years ago (when guys like Jared Sullinger would have skipped the NCAA altogether and gone pro out of high school, after all), yet complain that talent is down. Jay Bilas went on a big rant that's been all over the internet where he said that the fact that we have so many more teams with 11+ losses than we've ever had before means it's a fact that we have the weakest field ever. Couldn't it mean that we have better "bad" teams now? A team like Michigan State or West Virginia could easily have gotten themselves under 10 losses if they'd played an easier schedule. I agree that we don't have a juggernaut like we did a couple of years ago with that North Carolina team that stomped everybody on the way to the national title, but we've never had teams like that every year. And Ohio State is more of a "great" team than any team we had last year. I just don't understand how people can actually watch the basketball going on right now and not realize that we have the deepest set of NCAA basketball teams ever.

I think this is particularly true in the Southwest region, where (in my opinion) we've got five different legitimate Final Four teams. Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue and Louisville are all legitimate contenders. And if Chris Wright comes back to 100% of what he was a month ago, Georgetown is a legitimate Final Four contender as well. But let's start with the opening rounds:

First/Second Round:

My Picks:
11. USC over 11. VCU

1. Kansas over 16. Boston University
9. Illinois over 8. UNLV
4. Louisville over 13. Morehead State
12. Richmond over 5. Vanderbilt
3. Purdue over 14. St. Peter's
6. Georgetown over 11. USC
10. Florida State over 7. Texas A&M
2. Notre Dame over 15. Akron

I've talked plenty about how USC was the most preposterous team to be accepted into the NCAA Tournament that I can remember (see here and here). Their resume is by far the weakest to ever get into the Tournament. The reason they were put in is because Jio Fontan became eligible mid-season and they've been playing very well since then. The Selection Committee has never before accepted teams because, even though their resume stinks, they're playing really well. That's just not the way they've ever operated - it tells teams that their non-conference performance is basically a set of scrimmages if you are able to pass "the eye test" in March. But even though they shouldn't be in the field, USC is indeed playing well right now. They've slipped inside the Top 50 in both the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings. They've won six of their last eight games, and the two losses were a road loss at a very good Washington State team, and a five point neutral court loss to Arizona in the Pac-10 tournament (not to belabor the point, but if we're using the "eye test", why doesn't Washington State get into the field?). VCU, on the other hand, has been fading. They did beat UCLA, but that came over Thanksgiving weekend, and they followed it up with a loss to South Florida. Down the stretch they lost four of their last five regular season games in the Colonial. VCU is a team that forces a lot of turnovers, but otherwise is a terrible rebounding and terrible defensive team. Jio Fontan will help USC handle the defense, and USC should win this game fairly easily.

As for the main draw, you can put Kansas and Notre Dame into the next round without thinking. Notre Dame does have a relatively tough 15 seed, but Akron doesn't have any edge that they can exploit in this game. Because of the style of defense Notre Dame plays they would be vulnerable to a mid-major team that could shoot the lights out behind the arc, but Akron doesn't really have that. They have four guys that shoot threes in the 37-39% range, but that's not going to scare the Irish. I also don't think the Purdue/St. Peter's game is going to be much of a competition. St. Peter's is 274th in Pomeroy Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And even on defense, they don't force a ton of turnovers and they're a terrible rebounding team (252nd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage), and simply are good at holding their opponents to poor shooting (third in the nation in eFG% against). They aren't used to defending players like Purdue has. Also, I actually watched quite a bit of St. Peter's in the MAAC tournament, and in both the semis against Fairfield and in the finals against Iona they got off to quick starts but struggled badly down the stretch when their opponents started to press. They turn the ball over like crazy (321st in the nation in offensive turnover percentage). The end of that Iona game was almost a joke - they couldn't get the ball over midcourt when Iona turned up their full court press to full energy. Against defenders like Lewis Jackson? It's going to be a layup line for Purdue.

I'm going to go through the rest of the games from top to bottom, starting with the 8/9 game. Illinois was an under-performing team this year. They have Top 25 talent, but got very inconsistent play from both Demetri McCamey and Mike Tisdale. When McCamey has his head in the game and is running the pick & pop with Tisdale it's an almost unstoppable play, because how do you guard a 6'11" guy that can reliably hit 20 footers? But I've seen too many games this year where McCamey was completely invisible. UNLV looked like they were off to a promising start early this season when they beat Wisconsin, but they did it with 9-for-18 three-point shooting, and that three-point shooting went from good, to streaky, to just bad. They finished only 33.1% behind the arc on the season, including only 30.9% against Mountain West opponents. Their most talented player is Tre'Von Willis, but their most important offensive player is actually Chace Stanback, who can be a fairly dominant front court scorer. Illinois will have the defenders that can guard him one-on-one, though, with five players in their regular rotation that are 6'9" or taller. If UNLV shoots like they did against Wisconsin they'll win this game, but they've done that so rarely that I can't count on it. Illinois is my pick.

Louisville vs Morehead State is a very interesting game because of the fact that an Ohio Valley team might out-rebound a Big East team. Louisville is a small team that is relatively poor on the boards (12th in the Big East in offensive rebounding percentage, 9th in defensive rebounding percentage). Morehead State has Kenny Faried, Division I basketball's all-time record holder in career rebounds. Faried's stats are inflated by the conference he's in, of course, but when he walks on the court next to the Louisville players you'll realize how big and strong he is. Faried could walk into Pitt's huddle and fit in, he has that kind of look. He will be the best rebounder on the floor against Louisville. The concern for Morehead State, though, is that they are so dependent on that one part of their game. They actually finished 320th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, and were only fourth in the Ohio Valley in eFG%, despite all of the easy putback opportunities that Faried created. They have no outside shooting threat. I just don't see how Louisville doesn't eat that type of offense up. When Rick Pitino turns up his pressure he can even turn over teams like Notre Dame, so he will turn Morehead State over constantly. Faried will do what he does on the boards, but it won't be enough. Louisville is the pick here.

Vanderbilt/Richmond is a very good 5/12 game. Richmond got robbed with that 12 seed - I thought they deserved a 7 of 8 seed. And Vanderbilt has a recent history of getting taken out in the first round by quality mid-majors. They've lost in the first round to 13 seeds the last two times they've been in the Tournament (Murray State in 2010, Siena in 2008). And Richmond, of course, has more of a pedigree than either Murray State or Siena. They went 13-3 in the Atlantic Ten and then won the A-10 tournament. The A-10 wasn't quite as good as it has been in recent years, but it still was good and got Xavier as a 6 seed and Temple as a 7 seed, and Richmond also went out of conference and beat Purdue by 11 points, which is why Richmond's 12 seed is so bizarre. Richmond is a dangerous team because they'll slow the pace of the game and can hit threes (39.9% as a team for the season). That's precisely what they did in the A-10 tournament title game, where they hit a bunch of threes and got out to an early 14 point lead, and just took the life out of the ball. Richmond is a poor rebounding team, but Vanderbilt can't take advantage (9th in the SEC in offensive rebounding percentage, 8th in defensive rebounding percentage). Vanderbilt will try to speed up this game with John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor, but if they can't then a lot of pressure will be on Festus Ezeli and Lance Goulbourne to give Vanderbilt second chance scoring opportunities. Vanderbilt plays good three-point defense (they led the SEC with 30.5% allowed during SEC play), but they're not used to facing teams with a lot of good shooters. Richmond can put out a lineup with five guys that are all 39%+ three-point shooters. And when in doubt in a 5/12 game, take the 12 seed. Richmond is my pick.

Georgetown vs USC should be a very good first round game, and a lot has to do with Chris Wright. Georgetown went into a swoon when Chris Wright, their starting point guard, got hurt. Wright has returned to practice and is expected to at least try to play in this game, but Georgetown's problem hasn't been all about missing his offense. Their defense and rebounding have gotten worse, too. But I've seen many teams lose a good offensive player and then get worse on defense - it's a psychological blow. Getting Wright back will give the team a mental boost. And this Georgetown team is very gritty - they never give up on a game. Jio Fontan and Nikola Vucevic are both very good offensive players, but as a team USC isn't a tremendous scoring team. USC's rebounding stats are better than Georgetown's, but they came against weaker competition. Georgetown will be able to grind on the boards with guys like Julian Vaughn, Hollis Thompson and Henry Sims. I'm also a fan of Nate Lubick, a freshman who has really improved throughout the season and seems to fit John Thompson III's system. If USC doesn't win the rebounding battle they're in trouble, because they don't shoot particular well and they don't force turnovers. I also think this Georgetown team is going to come out fired up with Chris Wright and remember their disastrous first round exit last year, and I give them the edge.

It's interesting that Florida State and Georgetown are right next to each other on the bracket, because Florida State is another team that lost their most important player to injury (Chris Singleton) and are hoping to have him back for the NCAA Tournament. Florida State is an outstanding defensive team with or without Singleton, of course. They were the #1 team in Pomeroy Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, and finished second this year. But Singleton was the team's leading scorer and rebounder, and the offense has suffered without him. Derwin Kitchen is the only player that is an offensive threat. Okaro White is a very good freshman on the front line, and Xavier Gibson is a tremendous player defensively in the paint as well. Texas A&M spent a lot of their time in the Big 12 getting their shots blocked (last in the Big 12 in offensive block percentage), but even Texas doesn't bring it like Florida State does. If Florida State can get Singleton back and can tighten their rotation (they're not particularly deep) then they will give opponents a lot of trouble. They will force opponents to shoot over the top of them, and Texas A&M only one one good outside shooter (BJ Holmes). The Aggies are good on the offensive boards (fourth in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage), but they're not going to blow away FSU in that category. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate FSU as narrowly the better team, even though both Xavier Gibson and Chris Singleton missed a lot of time this year (artificially depressing FSU's computer numbers) and should both be playing in this game. I see no good reason to pick Texas A&M. FSU's the pick.

Second Round:

My Picks:
1. Kansas over 9. Illinois
4. Louisville over 12. Richmond
3. Purdue over 6. Georgetown
2. Notre Dame over 10. Florida State

I'll start at the top again. I would find it hard to trust in an Illinois pick here. They've been a very incomplete and inconsistent team all year, while Kansas has probably been the most consistent team in the country (other than maybe Ohio State). Kansas has no real flaws - they're good at everything, other than maybe the point guard position... although honestly, most teams in the Tournament would be happy to trade their point guard for Tyshawn Taylor. If Illinois has a strength it's the fact that when they're on they have a guy in Demetri McCamey who can attack and get to the basket and to the free throw line, and Mike Tisdale is such a good outside shooter that he can pull the opposing big man away from the basket. But with the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson, Kansas will be able to guard Tisdale at the top of the arc while still having somebody available to muscle Mike Davis in the paint and to protect the rim. And if McCamey has an off night - he's had a lot of those this season - Illinois basketball can turn into a bunch of clear-outs for Jereme Richmond and Brandon Paul, which is never good. Those two tend to look to shoot first, and don't involve Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis in the offense enough. Kansas has tremendous depth (a solid 11 man rotation) and will be ready to match-up with whatever Illinois brings. Kansas is the pick.

I'm not sure that Louisville fans are too worried about either Vanderbilt or Richmond. Louisville is threatened by teams with height that can score in the post and rebound, and that really doesn't describe either of their potential third round opponents. Richmond is probably the slightly tougher opponent because they have a lot of good ball handlers (16th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage) and will be able to withstand Louisville's pressure defense better than most. But for Richmond, their success actually has more to do with defense than anything else. This year they are 22-1 when allowing less than 1 point per possession, 3-2 when allowing between 1.0 and 1.1, and 2-4 when allowing more than 1.1. Louisville has too many scoring threats to be held under 1 PPP, I think. And if they do start forcing turnovers and pushing the pace, this game will be over. If you're picking Richmond you're counting on them to win the battle of wills in this game, and it's rare that teams are able to force their will on Louisville or Rick Pitino.

If Chris Wright comes back at near 100%, a Georgetown vs Purdue will be a tremendous match-up in the Round of 32. That could be an Elite 8 game. Now, I don't normally like to post graphs (particularly since in this case I'm in a rush and it had to be an Excel plot), but here is a graph of Georgetown's offensive and defensive efficiencies. Each dot represents a game. Obviously this isn't controlled for opponent quality, but there are things to note here.

First of all, you can see how dramatically Georgetown's offense has dropped off since Chris Wright got hurt. That dotted line goes through the game that Wright was hurt during. But the offense has been far worse since he's been hurt than it was all season long prior. But also note the defense - the defense has gotten progressively worse since Wright has been out, and in their last two games has been as bad as it's been all season long. Georgetown had won 9 of their previous 10 games before Wright was hurt. Including the game he's been hurt they've been 0-4 since. We see this all the time when key offensive players get hurt on a team. Mentally, the team loses defensive focus. If you don't think Chris Wright will be back at near his best then you've got to take Purdue here. Purdue is a great defensive team, and they have a shutdown perimeter defender (Lewis Jackson) and a shutdown interior defender (JaJuan Johnson). If Wright isn't playing, or isn't playing well, Purdue will stick their two key defenders on Austin Freeman and Julian Vaughn, and those blue dots will stay low.

If Georgetown does have Chris Wright back at full speed then they will put the pressure on a Purdue team that actually isn't great offensively. Like every other team in the Big Ten they never turn the ball over, but E'Twaun Moore is their only explosive scorer, and they aren't particularly good at rebounding the ball. Not having Robbie Hummel makes them a lot smaller than they'd otherwise be. But even if Chris Wright is back, I'm not willing to bet on this team being what they were earlier in the season. Georgetown runs a strict system offense (a quasi-Princeton style) and it takes time to really get that in sync. I'm not willing to bet a Sweet 16 team on Georgetown clicking on all cylinders on Sunday. And don't forget that this game will be in Chicago, which will be a virtual home game for Purdue. Purdue is my pick.

Notre Dame vs Florida State is an interesting battle of wills. Florida State is, when totally healthy, the best defensive team in the country, but they're horrid offensively. They like to run and play sloppy games with lots of turnovers on both sides of the court. Notre Dame likes to grind out games at a slow pace. The Irish play extremely efficient offensively (the third best offense in the nation, according to Pomeroy), but play a low-risk style defensively that is mediocre (10th in the Big East, according to Pomeroy) and never forces turnovers. But Notre Dame tends to win battle of wills, and this should be particularly true in the NCAA Tournament, when slow teams are able to slow down games much more often than fast teams are able to speed them up.

I actually think Notre Dame is a bad match-up for Florida State. The Seminoles defense is best at the core, and are very tough for post players to deal with. They are weakest the further they are from the basket (far and away the best two-point shooting percentage against in the nation, only the 13th best three-point shooting defense). Notre Dame does not ever rely on post offense. Ben Hansbrough, Tim Abromaitis and Carleton Scott all stretch the floor and can shoot from deep. Abromaitis, in particular, will stretch out Florida State's defense. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is vulnerable defensively to teams that can shoot well from deep. They like to pack in their defense, and finished 4th in the Big East in two-point shooting against, and 15th in three-point shooting against. Florida State is shooting 33% on the year behind the arc and will not seriously threaten Notre Dame. So I just don't see how Florida State is going to score enough to beat the Irish. I could see myself taking a different 7/10 seed over Notre Dame (Washington, in particular) because the Irish are overrated, but I just don't like this match-up for FSU.

Sweet 16:

My Picks:
4. Louisville over 1. Kansas
3. Purdue over 2. Notre Dame

If you're a fan of Kansas, the team you absolutely don't want to see in the Sweet 16 is Louisville. Kansas would roll over Vanderbilt, Richmond or Morehead State here, but Louisville is a bad match-up for them. If there's a weakness on Kansas, it's point guard play. Offensively they led the Big 12 in eFG%, but were only 6th in offensive turnover percentage. And when they lost Tyshawn Taylor for a little while they lost even more rhythm offensively. Kansas was merely outplayed and had a horrible shooting night in that loss to Texas, but their other two worst games in Big 12 play (their loss against Kansas State and their four point home victory over Missouri) were the only two times in Big 12 play that Kansas's offensive turnover rate passed 25%. So turning them over is key, and Louisville was second in the Big East in defensive turnover rate. Louisville went 9-1 this year when forcing turnovers on more than 25% of defensive possessions. Louisville is a poor rebounding team, and the Morris twins can take advantage of that, but it's not like Kansas has a lot of post offense. The Morris twins are really natural small forwards, and prefer to play in space. They're both good shooters and passers.

Another weakness Louisville has is that they foul a lot, but again this is something Kansas won't take advantage of. Kansas was only fifth in the Big 12 in offensive free throw rate, and when they got to the line they only shot 68.1% for the season. If Tyshawn Taylor isn't playing well and has to come out of the game, I really don't like the other distributors that Kansas has. Brady Morningstar, Tyrel Reed and Josh Selby are all really shooting guards. I'll also throw in the fact that I bet the crowd will be behind Louisville. If we end up with the four teams I've got in the Sweet 16, all four of those teams have large fan bases and will show up, and the Purdue and Notre Dame fans will be rooting for Louisville. Throw in the fact that Kansas doesn't really have an easier path here than Louisville does, and I'm giving the very narrow edge to Louisville. Sagarin and Pomeroy both rate Kansas as the third best team in the nation, and only rate Louisville 12th and 13th, respectively, so Kansas is the better team. But based on match-ups, I'm taking Louisville.

Purdue/Notre Dame is a game that certainly might not come to pass. Georgetown could easily get into this game. But my pick is Purdue vs Notre Dame, so let's talk about that one first. The interesting part of this game is that Notre Dame really plays a Big Ten style of basketball. They play deliberately and efficiently on offense, and play a sound, low-risk defensive style. In fact, Purdue will be the team applying more pressure defensively. Lewis Jackson will be in Ben Hansbrough's face for the entire game. Notre Dame doesn't have a lot of paint options offensively, so JaJuan Johnson should be able to push the Notre Dame offense away from the basket. But the biggest mis-match in this game is E'Twuan Moore. I don't see who on Notre Dame can handle him. And the Irish are most vulnerable to outside shooting, which is something Moore can deliver. Moore isn't as good as Ben Hansbrough, but he's more similar than Irish fans probably realize. And Purdue has secondary players like Ryne Smith and DJ Byrd that will stand at the arc all game and will hit threes if you leave them to double somebody else.

Other than Ben Hansbrough, the biggest advantage Notre Dame has offensively is that they have big guys who can shoot from outside. But Purdue has very long and athletic guards and small forwards that can get out and challenge at the three-point line. They had the third best three-point shooting defense in the Big Ten. Throw in the fact that both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate Purdue as the better team, and Purdue seems like the clear pick here.

If Notre Dame plays Georgetown in this game it will be a re-match of a game on December 29th, the Big East opener for both squads. That game was played in South Bend and the Irish won by 14. But a few warning signs are the fact that Notre Dame earned three times as many free throw attempts (27 to 9) and shot 44% behind the arc while the Hoyas shot 18%. The Irish actually struggled with Georgetown's paint defense, hitting only 36% on twos, compared to a 59% two-point shooting percentage for Georgetown. I think those teams are very even, and the pick has to be about Chris Wright. If he's back at full strength I give the edge to Georgetown. If he's not I give the edge to Notre Dame.

Elite 8:

My Pick:
3. Purdue over 4. Louisville

Louisville would rather play Notre Dame here than Purdue. Louisville has proven that they can turn over the Irish and beat them. But Purdue, like the other top Big Ten teams, doesn't turn the ball over against anybody. They have a lot of experience in the backcourt, and even a big like JaJuan Johnson can handle the ball if he gets it in space. Purdue is the better rebounding team, and the more efficient offensive team. And with no size in the paint, Louisville going to have to find a way to guard JaJuan Johnson without opening up all of his shooters behind the arc. This is where the loss of Rakeem Buckles really kills Louisville, because Terrence Jennings is the only player they have that has a chance one-on-one against Johnson. Does Rick Pitino really trust Gorgui Dieng to match up against the Big Ten Player of the Year in an Elite 8 game?

The X-factor for Louisville is Peyton Siva, who at times has been invisible, but at other times has taken over games down the stretch. Purdue will likely put Lewis Jackson on Preston Knowles, and will force Siva to beat them. And he can. But are you willing to bet on that? I'm not. I'm taking Purdue.

If you have Kansas in this game against Purdue, I like Kansas. They have multiple players that can guard E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, and Purdue really struggles offensively if those two aren't scoring. Nobody else on Purdue can really create their own offense (other than, on rare occasions, Lewis Jackson). Kansas will put up points on anybody, so I'd like them against Purdue.

If you have Notre Dame in this game against Louisville, you'd have a re-match between two teams that have played into overtime both times they played this year. It's going to be about whether Louisville can wear down Notre Dame. In the Big East tournament semifinals they did do that, and forced some key turnovers down the stretch to help them overcome a late deficit. I don't feel strongly one way or the other in that game. Certainly Notre Dame would prefer to play Louisville other than Kansas. Kansas will have the bodies to make life very difficult on Ben Hansbrough, and their athletic front line (the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson) are the perfect antidote to a player like Tim Abromaitis. So Kansas would be the clear favorite over Notre Dame.


Ron said...

You have Louisville over Purdue yet you have Purdue going out the round earlier. Is there a problem?

Jeff said...

Sorry about that. The actual text I wrote makes it clear I picked Purdue over Notre Dame, but for some reason I made a typo at the top.

But in general, you should focus more on the text than the picks anyway. Nobody should just identically accept all of the picks I make, and I talk about alternative scenarios in case my earlier round picks were wrong.

Ron said...

For sure sir. I was just trying to help you out and thank you for your analysis. Man this series of pick you have look solid and your articles are awesome.

Anonymous said...

Do you think the suspension of Kelsey Barlow will change anything?

Aaron said...

Jeff, are you going to have your final four analysis done tonight? I have to turn my bracket in in the morning, and I'd like to compare what I have with what you have to say.

Anonymous said...

I was reading one of rivals articles and it said something about Florida state trying to slow down the pace of the game against notre dame and this is bad for Irish who like to run. Hilarious moment, does that yahoo writer even
Watch college ball?

Jeff said...

I'm not confident I'm going to get the Final Four post up tonight. I just lost internet access at home (damn Charter Communications) and it took me until now to get somewhere I could get back online.

And yes, I am constantly fascinated by how few people understand the concept of tempo. The fact that Team A scores more points than Team B does not mean that Team A plays better offense... it could mean that they just take a whole lot more shots.

Anonymous said...

I also read the article about Kelsey Barlow being suspended. Is that going to be a big factor? Before you posted the southwest region in the back of my mind I thought that Louisville would be the team in the final four.

Jeff said...

I don't think it's a "big" factor. Barlow was likely only going to play about 15 minutes per game, and he's only useful on the defensive end of the floor. But it's a factor, so if you were already leaning toward Louisville then go with it. I'm still leaning toward Purdue, but Louisville is certainly a respectable choice. I've got them making it to the Elite 8 after all.

Anonymous said...

Jeff, How confidence are you in Louisville beating Kansas? This game is the last sweet 16 game I have to pick.
I Want to pick Louisville, but I fear that Louisville is too reliant on the 3 ball and if they can't connect, that their inside threat is not good enough to beat Kansas.
Also, If Kansas wins the rebounding battle on the offensive end and can put the ball back into the hands of their fine shooters, I think that they will be very hard to stop.

Jeff said...

You can never be too confident that far out in the bracket. We're just trying to play the best odds here.

I think Louisville is tough for Kansas because Kansas is most vulnerable to offensive turnovers. When they've struggled this year it's been because they've had a lot of turnovers, and Louisville's best successes have been correlated with forcing a lot of turnovers.

Kansas will win the rebounding battle and they might shoot better, so Louisville has to clearly win the turnover battle to win... but I think they will.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for responding so quickly!