Saturday, March 19, 2011

Picking The Lines: Day 6

Lines are up for Sunday's games, so here we go:

Day 4 against the spread: 8-8-0
Total through Day 4 ATS: 22-13-1
2010 Tournament ATS: 35-25-3

Washington (+5) over North Carolina: I picked North Carolina to win this game, and still think they're going to win, but that spread is too large. Washington is a team that likes to run, which is what North Carolina is going to try to do anyway. Washington will also press if they're behind, which could cause problems for a North Carolina team that still occasionally has ball handling problems. Washington is also a much better three-point shooting team. So I'll take the points here.

Michigan (+11.5) over Duke: This spread is a little bit too big. I think Michigan can win this game. They take care of the ball and don't rely on forcing turnovers, which is ideal against Duke, and Michigan can also shoot the ball and has experience playing elite teams close this season. Michigan's youth could finally catch up to them here, but I'll still take the points.

Ohio State (-10.5) over George Mason: That seems like a big spread, but if you think about it, to take less than 11 or 12 points means that you think the underdog at least has a chance to win. I don't think George Mason has a chance to win. They are weak in paint, both scoring the ball and rebounding, so they're going to be chucking threes and hoping to hit at a high rate (they did average a good 39.4% on the season). But if the threes don't fall this will be a blowout.

Arizona (+5.5) over Texas: I picked Arizona to win this game, for reasons described here.

VCU (+9) over Purdue: If VCU plays like they have the past few days, they will give Purdue problems and will cover this spread. They play at a more frenetic pace than Purdue is used to. They also are shooting out of their minds behind the arc. And as somebody who attended Friday's games in Chicago, I can tell you that while this game is in Purdue's backyard, they will have a minor homecourt advantage if any. VCU's fan contingent is fairly large and they're loud. So forget any homecourt advantage for Purdue.

Syracuse (-5) over Marquette: I talked through the scenarios on this game here. I think Syracuse is a heavy favorite, so I'll give the points.

Kansas (-9) over Illinois: That spread is larger than I expected. Pomeroy only projects a five point win for Kansas. But I think Illinois matches up poorly. To beat Kansas you've got to turn them over (I talked about this extensively in this post) and Illinois was dead last in the Big Ten in defensive turnover percentage. And besides, all year long Illinois has been inconsistent. They played great against UNLV, but the idea that they're going to play two straight great games seems far-fetched given their performance thus far.

Notre Dame (-5) over Florida State: FSU's interior players are huge. I was right up in front to watch FSU live, and Bernard James is a specimen. Texas A&M couldn't take a shot within 15 feet that wasn't automatically blocked. But that's why the ideal team to beat FSU is a team that doesn't require any post offense at all. Notre Dame can throw out a lineup with five outside shooters. How is FSU going to guard Notre Dame if Tim Abromaitis, Carleton Scott and Scott Martin are the frontcourt on the floor? Either they're going to have to take their bigs out of the game, or their 7-footers are going to have to chase around smaller players on the perimeter. Either way, I like Notre Dame's chances.

1 comment:

charizard said...


great predicted the first two games

I play the other, I hope to be successful