Three Big Atlantic Ten Wins

Temple 75, #3 Villanova 65
I've been meaning to get around to these three Atlantic Ten games from Sunday and just haven't, but it's important to realize two things about this conference. First of all, it's a quality conference: Sagarin has them ranked 6th overall, and they are actually 5th in average RPI. So it seems like a conference that should get multiple Tournament teams. The problem is, there's a huge logjam at the top. There are a number of teams that will have to differentiate themselves in conference play. Temple won this particular game by outshooting Villanova behind the arc (50% vs 33%). Nova lives and dies by the three, so if you outshoot them there you've got a great shot to beat them. But that said, Temple is the first team to beat them, and they were ranked 3rd in the nation coming in, so you don't want to underweight this win. Temple is now 8-2 with wins over Penn State, Virginia Tech, Siena and now Villanova. Their two losses came to Georgetown and St. John's. So far that's a Tournament resume, but they'll have to prove it in Atlantic Ten play. They can't afford anything worse than a 10-6 A-10 record. As for Villanova, I still think they're the favorites to win the Big East, but they're a weak favorite. They are very close in overall talent to West Virginia, Georgetown and Syracuse, and you can't totally ignore UConn either. Villanova's playing style makes it impossible to win every game - some nights their shots won't fall, and they'll lose - so they need a heavily contested conference. I don't see them going 16-2 in the Big East, but I could easily see them going 14-4.

Xavier 83, #19 Cincinnati 79, 2OT
The best game of the day is also a sign that Xavier may not be the team we thought they were. They lost a great coach in Sean Miller, they lost some key recruits because of that coaching transition, and looked to be on their way to a down year early on. They lost two of three games at the Old Spice Classic, and also got rocked at Kansas State just five days before this game. But something seemed to click in this intense rivalry game. The Musketeers finally started to look like a team comfortable with itself. One win over Cincinnati does not a season make, but it's a good start. They head to Butler on Saturday afternoon, and then play Miami of Ohio and LSU before heading to Wake Forest. It's a tough schedule, but it will prepare Xavier well for Atlantic Ten regular season play. Small conference teams can only play their way out of the NCAA Tournament in conference play, but the A-10 is good enough that Xavier can play their way into the Dance, despite their slow start. Cincy, meanwhile, can't feel too bad about this loss. They were playing a good team desperate for a win, it was a rivalry game, and the crowd was really into it. Lance Stephenson showed a bit of the good and bad here, playing 42 minutes and dropping 20+ points for the first time all season, but also showing a little bit of that immaturity that caused a bunch of top programs to lay off him. The key task for Mick Cronin is obviously keeping Stephenson in line and working together with his teammates the rest of the season.

Rhode Island 80, Boston College 69
Of the three A-10 wins Sunday night, this was probably the least surprising, although it was probably the least deserved in terms of play on the floor. Rhode Island shot the lights out of the building (50% from the field, 60% behind the arc) while Boston College shot poorly behind the arc (18%). Boston College dominated the boards, but it wasn't enough with that shooting performance. The Eagles now fall to 6-4 with wins over Providence and Michigan, and losses to St. Joe's, Harvard, Northern Iowa and Rhode Island. Obviously they have a chance to make up for that in ACC play, but I don't see it happening. This is a rebuilding year for them. Rhode Island now moves to 8-1, but you can argue that this is their best win. Their out-of-conference schedule wasn't great, though good enough to keep the computer numbers decent. Still, without any Top 25 victories they're going to need to rack up a good overall record. They probably can't finish worse than 11-5 in the A-10 while still earning an at-large bid.