North Carolina 77, NC State 63
I'm always amazed at how much the media overreacts to every win or loss by a team. North Carolina loses a few games and suddenly all of the "experts" on television are making them into a bubble team that might miss the NCAA Tournament. Now sure, they've had a few straight bad performances. But if all it takes to be an "expert" is to see a team lose a few straight and extrapolate that to continue for the rest of the season, and ignore what they actually see on the court, then what exactly is the purpose of that? Nobody who watches them and knows anything about basketball thinks they're a bubble team. Now, this one game was easy. After so many losses there was no question that they were going to win this one - I was shocked that they were only favored by 1 point in Vegas (to borrow that old joke, I would have thrown a lot of money on this game if gambling were legal in this country). But after another relatively easy game at home against Virginia things get more difficult quickly, with road games at Virginia Tech and Maryland, and then a home game against Duke. Ed Davis is back in the lineup, but Tyler Zeller is still out, and Marcus Ginyard still is not 100%. Dexter Strickland continues to light up the court whenever he's on it (14 points on 6-for-7 shooting here), but Roy Williams continues not to trust him with extended time. The Tar Heels still have to prove that this win was not a fluke, and that they really are back. As for NC State, they picked the wrong night to get UNC. They might have won this game if it was played a week earlier. They now fall to 2-5 in the ACC with a couple of road games upcoming. They're now 13-8 overall and 3-8 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI nearly out of the Top 100 altogether. They need to finish 7-9 in the ACC to have any hope of an at-large bid, which means that a 5-4 finish is the absolutely minimum.
#13 Kansas State 76, Baylor 74
Baylor actually outplayed Kansas State in this game. They forced a remarkable 14 steals and did a great job of getting to the line (they ended up making seven more free throws than Kansas State attempted). But Kansas State won this game with hot outside shooting: 52% versus 21% for Baylor. Jacob Pullen was a particularly impressive 6-for-7 behind the arc. But a win is a win, and this was a particularly important win for the Wildcats. It was not surprising to see them have a letdown loss after that big win over Texas, and the question was how they'd respond after that letdown game. And to win a game at Baylor, even one where it took unusually sharp outside shooting, is a very impressive way to bounce back. Next comes up a huge home game against Kansas on Saturday night. As for Baylor, this is a tough missed opportunity that drops them to 2-3 in the Big 12 with a road game at Texas upcoming. Despite the rough start to Big 12 play this is still a team with a little bit of breathing space between them and the bubble, including a 6-3 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin rating of 26th. They'll likely get into the NCAA Tournament with even an 8-8 Big 12 record, so they just have to be sure to not lose too many games over the next few weeks.
UAB 65, Tulsa 55
Conference USA is in a complicated situation with five bubble teams, but no teams safely in the Tournament right now. The conference is improved, but not good enough for more than two or three at-large bids, so some of these teams need to break away from the pack in order to lock up their Tournament bids. If the teams beat up on each other too badly there is still a very realistic chance of the conference getting zero at-large teams. UAB is one of the teams with a chance of breaking away from the pack with a very impressive 18-2 record, including 6-0 in conference and 5-2 against the RPI Top 100. While those numbers are impressive, what's less impressive is that they lack any really notable wins (Butler and Cincinnati being the two best), that their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 50th and their Pomeroy rating is 48th. So while their resume is very good right now, with zero blemishes, their resume is better than they deserve. With a number of very tough games remaining (road games at Memphis and UTEP being the two toughest), UAB has to keep winning. The lack of big wins means that they will only earn an at-large bid by having an overwhelming winning percentage (at least 24 or 25 total wins). Their next test is a Saturday night road game against UTEP. As for Tulsa, they obviously have one of the top players in the nation in Jerome Jordan, but he didn't get a lot of help from his teammates in this game. They combined for 35 points on 31% shooting in this one. Ballhandling is a particular problem, although it was always going to be the weak link of a team with Jordan in the middle. This loss only drops the Golden Hurricanes to 15-4 overall and 5-1 in Conference USA, but they are only 1-3 against the RPI Top 100 (the one win coming over Oklahoma State) and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is only 76th. Like UAB, the lack of big wins means that Tulsa needs to have an overwhelming winning percentage to collect an at-large bid. They now enter a key stretch with five of their next seven games against the other teams they are fighting against for an at-large bid (Marshall, Memphis and UTEP).
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4 comments:
"Nobody who watches [UNC] and knows anything about basketball thinks they're a bubble team."
Well, the problem is that a bubble team is defined by their record, not by what they look like on the court. Right now, Ken Pom rates them 46th, lower than 3 of the teams you project to be on the bubble. Their projected final record is 17-14, and 6-10 in conference.
If they beat every team they face rated 40th or higher on the road and every team rated 25th or higher at home, that would be a pretty impressive run. And it would still only bring them to a bubblicious 18-13 and 7-9 in conference.
So, is this a case of "we are what our record says we are", or lies, damn lies and statistics?
The season has a long way to go. Asserting that UNC is a bubble team is like asserting that everybody should have put Virginia in their bracket when they were 3-0 in the ACC because the ACC regular season champ never misses the NCAA Tournament.
They lost some games to bad teams to bad teams during a slump, but they won't slump for the rest of the year. To think that they're as bad as their current record is to be blind to what is on the floor.
UNC's ratings will not be outside the Top 40 when the season ends. They'll be back in the Top 25, most likely.
If I offered you 1-to-10 odds of UNC making the Tournament (you pay $10 if they miss it or receive $1 if they make it), you'd take that bet, wouldn't you? I know I would.
Why are you downgrading the UAB wins against Butler and Cincy? They were ranked opponents at the time and Butler is still ranked and has impressive wins and impressive SOS. DeCourcy, Bilas, Vitale, Katz have all acknowledge this UAB team is for real and has been impressive. Lunardi has even acknowledge that UAB has Dance-level talent. UC is performing well in the BE and Butler is still ranked in the ESPN Coaches poll. UAB resume is head and shoulders above Memphis and Tulsa. Just because the conference tourney is in Tulsa doesn't automatically makes the Hurricane a lock for the autobid. UAB has 5 homes game and 5 road games left. UAB is a tourney team period. Memphis and Tulsa has some work ahead of them. UAB at most will probably lose two to three more games but 25-5 is more than good enough for an at-large even in CUSA with our resume. You're underplaying Blazers resume. If Memphis had played the same schedule they would be praise for it.
What teams are ranked when you play them really does not matter to the Selection Committee. Butler and Cincy are good wins, but they're not great wins. Heads turn when a team has a Top Ten victory, and UAB will not have one of those or even close.
And as I've explained before, I do think that UAB is more likely than not going to get into the Tournament if they get to 25-5, but more likely than not going to miss if they do anything worse than that. Pomeroy right now projects them to finish exactly 25-5, so they're going to be very much on the bubble.
If you're a UAB fan then, to me, the path is simple. They need to get to at least 25-5, they need to finish the regular season well, and they need to make at least the semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. If they can do those three things then I'd be surprised to see them out.
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