Sunday, March 11, 2007

Bracket Analysis

Just a reminder that throughout the next week I'll go through a bunch of analysis to help you fill out your bracket. For now you can chew on my 5 vs 12 analysis from last year. That analysis suggests to bet against smaller-conference teams that are #5 seeds, and to bet on major conference teams that are 12's. That led me to suggest betting on Texas A&M and Montana to pull upsets last year, both of which happened. This year that advice might not be entirely helpful, since three games fit the grade. Arkansas over USC, Old Dominion over Butler, and Illinois over Virginia Tech. Although, to be honest, all three look very ripe for upsets. Take the numbers as you'd like. I'll try to provide more help as the week goes on.


DMoore said...

Arkansas' Pomeroy rating is actually significantly higher than Southern California's. That's probably the best bet here. Illinois and Virginia Tech are virtually the same (a very slight edge to Illinois), so that's a viable upset pick too.

Jeff said...

Both of them are good bets. You can never go wrong betting on a Major Conference 12 seed.